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TheSonntag
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European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:42 am

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sozial ... 21662.html

Der Spiegel has come with a report of a Meeting of Boris Johnson with fellow foreign Ministers where he stated his Brexit plans.

According to the italian foreign Minister, Johnson stated: I do not want free movement of people, but full access to the common market.". The Italians rejected that, and Boris Johnson said "in that case you will be selling less Prosecco in London." The italian answered as follows: People in the UK will sell less Fish & Chips. I sell less Prosecco to one Country, while you sell less Fish & Chips to 27 countries.
Dijsselbloem added: Comparisions like the one Boris Johnson brought on the table are intellectually outrageous and politically impossible.

Well, so much about that. But still good luck with your Brexit, but please: Start it now, so that we get over it.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:38 am

 
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Francoflier
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:57 am

That goes to show how prepared the UK government is for article 50 negotiations.

The sweet irony here is that the same people who misled the population into thinking it was going to be great and easy are the ones who will have to face the reality of their own lies.

I call karma on that one, Boris. And it's only beginning.
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mham001
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:44 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/boris-johnson-blamiert-sich-mit-brexit-plan-prosecco-gegen-fish-chips-a-1121662.html

Der Spiegel has come with a report of a Meeting of Boris Johnson with fellow foreign Ministers where he stated his Brexit plans.

According to the italian foreign Minister, Johnson stated: I do not want free movement of people, but full access to the common market.". The Italians rejected that, and Boris Johnson said "in that case you will be selling less Prosecco in London." The italian answered as follows: People in the UK will sell less Fish & Chips. I sell less Prosecco to one Country, while you sell less Fish & Chips to 27 countries.


The laughable part is the narrow focus of that example. Those 27 other countries don't sell products in the UK? Germans don't sell autos, for example?

Hell hath no fury like a Euro scorned but it might not be a good idea for anybody to get too haughty. The UK may have other options, such as joining with the US and Canada.
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:58 pm

The UK is a net importer of goods from the EU, thus economically it makes sense for the EU to want a free trade deal, even more than the UK.

This is where the EU ideologues come in. They insist that a free trade deal include free movement of peoples, which is an utterly unreasonable demand. Free trade means free trade. Selling to each other without tariffs. That's all it should mean. A free trade deal should be no more than 1 piece of paper, agreeing not to place tariffs. All these extra conditions are special interests and ideology.
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Aesma
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:08 pm

If a UK legal car doesn't follow EU rules (which already happens with small sportscar manufacturers) it can't be sold in the EU, regardless of the existence of tariffs. So it's not that simple.

mham001 : joining with the US that has just elected Trump on a platform of scuppering free trade deals ?
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Dreadnought
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:39 pm

Aesma wrote:
If a UK legal car doesn't follow EU rules (which already happens with small sportscar manufacturers) it can't be sold in the EU, regardless of the existence of tariffs. So it's not that simple.

mham001 : joining with the US that has just elected Trump on a platform of scuppering free trade deals ?


Yes it is simple. Obviously the buying country can set whatever they standard they want on goods they import. If the EU demands one pink headlight and the other green, UK automakers will happily do it.

Some people seem to have the impression that trade - even free trade, never happened before the advent of these monstrous, overreaching deals like TPP or even the EU.
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coolian2
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:59 pm

mham001 wrote:
TheSonntag wrote:
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/boris-johnson-blamiert-sich-mit-brexit-plan-prosecco-gegen-fish-chips-a-1121662.html

Der Spiegel has come with a report of a Meeting of Boris Johnson with fellow foreign Ministers where he stated his Brexit plans.

According to the italian foreign Minister, Johnson stated: I do not want free movement of people, but full access to the common market.". The Italians rejected that, and Boris Johnson said "in that case you will be selling less Prosecco in London." The italian answered as follows: People in the UK will sell less Fish & Chips. I sell less Prosecco to one Country, while you sell less Fish & Chips to 27 countries.


The laughable part is the narrow focus of that example. Those 27 other countries don't sell products in the UK? Germans don't sell autos, for example?

Hell hath no fury like a Euro scorned but it might not be a good idea for anybody to get too haughty. The UK may have other options, such as joining with the US and Canada.

You don't live there, why are you commenting?
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Aesma
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:06 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
Aesma wrote:
If a UK legal car doesn't follow EU rules (which already happens with small sportscar manufacturers) it can't be sold in the EU, regardless of the existence of tariffs. So it's not that simple.

mham001 : joining with the US that has just elected Trump on a platform of scuppering free trade deals ?


Yes it is simple. Obviously the buying country can set whatever they standard they want on goods they import. If the EU demands one pink headlight and the other green, UK automakers will happily do it.

Some people seem to have the impression that trade - even free trade, never happened before the advent of these monstrous, overreaching deals like TPP or even the EU.


Somehow US automakers don't bother selling cars in France, and the reverse for French automakers.

More importantly, the political mood at the moment isn't for free trade, but against it.
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Revelation
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:08 pm

Francoflier wrote:
That goes to show how prepared the UK government is for article 50 negotiations.

The sweet irony here is that the same people who misled the population into thinking it was going to be great and easy are the ones who will have to face the reality of their own lies.

I call karma on that one, Boris. And it's only beginning.


Just like some people in the US think we can snap our fingers and be back in the 1950s...

Dreadnought wrote:
The UK is a net importer of goods from the EU, thus economically it makes sense for the EU to want a free trade deal, even more than the UK.

This is where the EU ideologues come in. They insist that a free trade deal include free movement of peoples, which is an utterly unreasonable demand. Free trade means free trade. Selling to each other without tariffs. That's all it should mean. A free trade deal should be no more than 1 piece of paper, agreeing not to place tariffs. All these extra conditions are special interests and ideology.


It's what is known as bargaining, the thing that Trump claims he's good at. You want access to our markets, we want free immigration with your country, let's make a deal...
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JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:11 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
The UK is a net importer of goods from the EU, thus economically it makes sense for the EU to want a free trade deal, even more than the UK.


OTOH, a good chunk of the UK financial sector depends on passporting rights from the EU.

We've already seen how Nissan has extracted a deal from the UK that they will get compensated if the UK doesn't have full access to the common market.

“The impression Britain is giving to countries such as India is, we want your business but we don’t want your people,”
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/v ... 241037.ece

Good luck getting those trade deals through if you're not ready to make concessions (which given the Brexit proponents rethoric is not much)

It's a lose-lose situation, but one the British have pushed thenselves into.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:19 pm

Aesma wrote:
If a UK legal car doesn't follow EU rules (which already happens with small sportscar manufacturers) it can't be sold in the EU, regardless of the existence of tariffs. So it's not that simple.

mham001 : joining with the US that has just elected Trump on a platform of scuppering free trade deals ?


Name me a UK legal car which is not legal in the EU, all UK builts car will be EU legal, they all follow the same rules, the smaller volume producers follow the European Community Small Series Type Approval (EC SSTA) rules, the is for vehciles where the production is less than 1000 units per year. There are specialist producers in other EU countries which also come under these rules.

I think the Italian comes across as a bit of a twat, fish and chips are sold and consumed at the same time, fish and chip shops don't export, who wants soggy fish and chips apart from Australians!!.
 
JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:45 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Aesma wrote:
If a UK legal car doesn't follow EU rules (which already happens with small sportscar manufacturers) it can't be sold in the EU, regardless of the existence of tariffs. So it's not that simple.

mham001 : joining with the US that has just elected Trump on a platform of scuppering free trade deals ?


Name me a UK legal car which is not legal in the EU, all UK builts car will be EU legal, they all follow the same rules, the smaller volume producers follow the European Community Small Series Type Approval (EC SSTA) rules, the is for vehciles where the production is less than 1000 units per year. There are specialist producers in other EU countries which also come under these rules.

I think the Italian comes across as a bit of a twat, fish and chips are sold and consumed at the same time, fish and chip shops don't export, who wants soggy fish and chips apart from Australians!!.


Twit for twat. If someone reduced the entire Italian export industry to prosecco I'd be snarky too.
 
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:48 pm

I wonder what the workers in France or Germany etc etc will say (or vote), when they find a major importer of their goods and services are going down a route of reduced markets, thanks to their elected politicians?

Interesting times ahead!
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JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:59 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
I wonder what the workers in France or Germany etc etc will say (or vote), when they find a major importer of their goods and services are going down a route of reduced markets, thanks to their elected politicians?

Interesting times ahead!


UK exports to the EU account for about 13% of its GDP (2014 figures, hovering between 13-15% over the last decade)
EU exports to the UK account for about 3% of its GDP (2014 again)

Lose-lose indeed.
 
vc10
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:08 pm

Aesma

Somehow US automakers don't bother selling cars in France, and the reverse for French automakers.

Well France is not the EU, but just a part of it, and I do believe that other members of the EU do build and supply cars to the USA and comply with USA requirements. Fiat supply cars and surely Germany does, just ask VW, Mercedes , and BMW how many cars they sell in the USA. The reason why France does not supply cars to the USA is that some years ago Renault I believe, tried too, but the Americans did not take to them, and the venture was a financial failure.

When people mention the Nissan deal with the UK, people have to remember that Nissan is some 49% owned by Renault, who are themselves under pressure from the French Government to move as many of their car making plants [ and that includes Nissan at Sunderland] back onto French soil, and they tried this some two years ago I believe, which Nissan refused to do and this was some time before Brexit

Trade is all about producing goods that the world needs at the right price and at a good quality just ask Germany, however without the Euro the German goods because of the demand would be far to expensive.

littlevc10
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:11 pm

JJJ wrote:
UK exports to the EU account for about 13% of its GDP (2014 figures, hovering between 13-15% over the last decade)
EU exports to the UK account for about 3% of its GDP (2014 again)



Applying the GDP numbers for 2015 and applying your percentages, that means:
Annual EU Exports to UK: 487 billion Euros
Annual UK Exports to EU: 335 billion Euros

So yes, the EU stands to lose more.
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seahawk
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:32 pm

After the 2017 elections in France and Germany, the British position might be seen differently. Maybe these 2 nations will also decide to become sovereign again.
 
JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:38 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
JJJ wrote:
UK exports to the EU account for about 13% of its GDP (2014 figures, hovering between 13-15% over the last decade)
EU exports to the UK account for about 3% of its GDP (2014 again)



Applying the GDP numbers for 2015 and applying your percentages, that means:
Annual EU Exports to UK: 487 billion Euros
Annual UK Exports to EU: 335 billion Euros

So yes, the EU stands to lose more.


Leaving the question of which set of exports has a more elastic demand, the person I was answering to was putting it in terms of jobs lost, and no matter how you spin it losing 13% of your business will hurt more jobs than losing 3%
 
LAH1
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:41 pm

JJJ wrote:
Dreadnought wrote:
JJJ wrote:
UK exports to the EU account for about 13% of its GDP (2014 figures, hovering between 13-15% over the last decade)
EU exports to the UK account for about 3% of its GDP (2014 again)



Applying the GDP numbers for 2015 and applying your percentages, that means:
Annual EU Exports to UK: 487 billion Euros
Annual UK Exports to EU: 335 billion Euros

So yes, the EU stands to lose more.


Leaving the question of which set of exports has a more elastic demand, the person I was answering to was putting it in terms of jobs lost, and no matter how you spin it losing 13% of your business will hurt more jobs than losing 3%


Maybe the value doesn't equate with job losses - automation in high value goods is wide spread.
 
JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:47 pm

LAH1 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Dreadnought wrote:

Applying the GDP numbers for 2015 and applying your percentages, that means:
Annual EU Exports to UK: 487 billion Euros
Annual UK Exports to EU: 335 billion Euros

So yes, the EU stands to lose more.


Leaving the question of which set of exports has a more elastic demand, the person I was answering to was putting it in terms of jobs lost, and no matter how you spin it losing 13% of your business will hurt more jobs than losing 3%


Maybe the value doesn't equate with job losses - automation in high value goods is wide spread.


We're talking aggregates here, but any case, sectors like financial services which don't necessarily count into the export-import depend on EU passporting rights.

According to PWC the UK would be set to lose 70 to 100K well-paid jobs, tied to the financial services sector alone.

https://www.pwc.co.uk/financial-service ... sector.pdf
 
coolian2
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:50 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
JJJ wrote:
UK exports to the EU account for about 13% of its GDP (2014 figures, hovering between 13-15% over the last decade)
EU exports to the UK account for about 3% of its GDP (2014 again)



Applying the GDP numbers for 2015 and applying your percentages, that means:
Annual EU Exports to UK: 487 billion Euros
Annual UK Exports to EU: 335 billion Euros

So yes, the EU stands to lose more.

Well, on raw amounts, yes.

But on actual impact/market size/ability to recover, then no.

They literally lose more, but that's not the only way to look at it. But then again, it's you.
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Redd
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:02 pm

Lol, any wine aficionado knows that in the past few years there has been a Prosecco shortage, serious enough for the government to allow 15% of non Prosecco region grapes to be used in the production to help fill the need for demand..... Out of all the things Bigass Johnson could have threatened the Italians with, he chose the worst possible product. Too funny.
 
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Aesma
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:55 pm

I was just saying that selling cars in other markets is not that simple. German and Italian manufacturers do it, but they have to design models specifically for this.

Kiwirob wrote:
Aesma wrote:
If a UK legal car doesn't follow EU rules (which already happens with small sportscar manufacturers) it can't be sold in the EU, regardless of the existence of tariffs. So it's not that simple.


TVR. In fact TVR didn't even try to comply with EU rules, instead they exported the cars as used to bypass them.
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Klaus
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:03 am

The initial quote had been mangled a bit. From the Guardian article linked above:

Guardian wrote:
Carlo Calenda, an Italian economics minister, said it was insulting that Johnson had told him during a recent meeting that Italy would grant Britain access to the EU’s single market “because you don’t want to lose prosecco exports”.

“He basically said: ‘I don’t want free movement of people but I want the single market,’” he told Bloomberg. “I said: ‘No way.’ He said: ‘You’ll sell less prosecco.’ I said: ‘OK, you’ll sell less fish and chips, but I’ll sell less prosecco to one country and you’ll sell less to 27 countries.’ Putting things on this level is a bit insulting.”


Emphasis mine. Which puts it quite into perspective. (But won't the fish'n'chips get a bit soggy on their way...? ;) )

Dreadnought wrote:
JJJ wrote:
UK exports to the EU account for about 13% of its GDP (2014 figures, hovering between 13-15% over the last decade)
EU exports to the UK account for about 3% of its GDP (2014 again)



Applying the GDP numbers for 2015 and applying your percentages, that means:
Annual EU Exports to UK: 487 billion Euros
Annual UK Exports to EU: 335 billion Euros

So yes, the EU stands to lose more.


The EU is just about nine times as big, so as a proportion the EU27 will hardly notice the UK business falling away in the rougher seas ahead while the UK will suffer a major shock, especially combined with its financial services getting cut off from the EU as well since those are much more critical to the british economy than its relatively puny export of goods.

Dano1977 wrote:
I wonder what the workers in France or Germany etc etc will say (or vote), when they find a major importer of their goods and services are going down a route of reduced markets, thanks to their elected politicians?

Interesting times ahead!


It's a wide-ranging consensus across Europe that Brexit is an utterly bizarre mistake which deserves no special concessions whatsoever (particularly not regarding free movement). And since the impact will be rather small when spread out across the EU27, it will effectively be lost in the background noise of european and world events. In the other direction it will be concentrated within just the UK, which will be decidedly more inconvenient. But the brexiteers would have thought of that right from the start, wouldn't they?

Pretty much nobody is pushing for concessions to the UK, and that is very unlikely to change. Even in case of extreme parties winning major elections here it would only get even worse for the UK.
 
Veetwo
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:19 am

Dano1977 wrote:
I wonder what the workers in France or Germany etc etc will say (or vote), when they find a major importer of their goods and services are going down a route of reduced markets, thanks to their elected politicians?

Interesting times ahead!


They'll probably only go on strike 3 times next year instead of 4. Combine that in addition to their 60 days paid vacation and the 4 day, 5 hour work days hopefully they will be able to cope.
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sierrakilo44
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:28 am

Veetwo wrote:
They'll probably only go on strike 3 times next year instead of 4. Combine that in addition to their 60 days paid vacation and the 4 day, 5 hour work days hopefully they will be able to cope.


I didn't realise the goal in life was to live to work and become the richest person in the graveyard. Besides if you take some time off work and engage with family, friends and the world around you you may find your productivity at work goes up?:

http://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/whi ... rkers.html

Would you rather have that or be working 60+ hour weeks with no vacation, glued to your iPad and phone when not at your desk and taking copious amounts of medication for stress relief? In your golden years are you going to be regretting that you never put in those extra hours at the office?
 
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Aesma
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:39 am

I'd say that many French factory workers at least probably have the same feelings as Brexiters, however since this feeling is akin to xenophobia, there is no reason they would cheer on people from other countries. They feel like globalization doesn't work for them, so the fact that their company might be selling stuff outside France flies well above their concerns.

Especially in France economics is akin to mathematics, most people don't understand it and don't want to try. I'm not saying French people should agree with such or such economic theory like happens in other countries (TINA), however they could at least realize that actions have consequences.

At the end of the day a major difference between most EU countries and the UK is the euro. Most people want to keep it.
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VSMUT
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:45 am

Dano1977 wrote:
I wonder what the workers in France or Germany etc etc will say (or vote), when they find a major importer of their goods and services are going down a route of reduced markets, thanks to their elected politicians?

Interesting times ahead!


The workers of France or Germany aren't stupid. They know perfectly well that this is the fault of the UK and it's population, not the German and French politicians.

Besides that, the German car industry has already taken its stance - against allowing free trade with the UK: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21 ... -lobbyists

“Yes, we certainly have influence,” says Matthias Wissmann, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry. “But we are at least as interested in keeping the European Union together—in fact, that is our priority.” Britons are deluded, he adds, if they think German carmakers care only “about selling five more cars” rather than taking a long-term view.


:)
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:49 am

You can quote overall statistics, for ever and a day, to prove or disprove that free trade would or would not hurt one Country or another, but what has to be acknowledged by both sides is that in some parts of the economy, EU - UK trade is exceedingly important if not vital. If you are a producer of Prosecco, the loss of the UK market would be hard to bear, the fact that it is insignificant in terms of the overall Italian economy would be irrelevant. Likewise a producer of light weight lamb carcasses in the UK has few options apart from sending them to Europe. As with the Prosecco producer, the light lamb trade to Europe is insignificant in National terms, but crucial to a UK hill farmer who struggles to produce lambs to UK spec.
 
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Aesma
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:07 am

Well all trade will not stop. Producers might have to adjust to the new realities but that's all.

At least for goods. For services, including financial services, that may be more difficult.
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vc10
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:36 am

Every body here says what they believe what will happen with after Brexit and quote % figures for EU exports to UK and visa versa, however no one really knows, politics is a strange world.

When the EU % of exports to the UK is quoted as only 3% that means 3% of the EU's total GDP, but when you look at the % figure for particular countries that tells a different story.

According to OEC figures for 2014
23 % of Germany's car production was exported to the UK
10 % of France's car production was exported to the UK
8.9% of Italy's car production was exported to the UK

7.7 % of UK car production was exported to Germany

Some other figures are the UK is the second biggest market for Italian wine exports by importing £550 million of Italian wine

So what does that mean, not a lot, as 10% could represent quite a small number so unless this is quoted with total numbers it is meaningless.

When you look at the UK's exports to the rest of the EU this 13% figure includes our oil exports, which amounts to some 13% of our total EU exports. Now if the EU does not want our oil I am sure we could finda market for it else where.

Now I have also read today [ in German newspaper ] that VW are proposing to lay off some 30,000 workers after the diesel scandal so perhaps now is not the best time to loose one of it's big export makets Angela Merkal said last week that there is perhaps some room to cater for the UK's immigration problem, and yes we do have a problem as the the UK in area is a relatively small country say compared to Germany or France and yet we have a population about the same size as France and somewhat smaller than Germany and with English being a nearly universal language immigrants will tend to prefer to come here by choice, which very few people object to, it is the numbers that is the problem

littlevc10
 
Redd
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:45 am

Veetwo wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
I wonder what the workers in France or Germany etc etc will say (or vote), when they find a major importer of their goods and services are going down a route of reduced markets, thanks to their elected politicians?

Interesting times ahead!


They'll probably only go on strike 3 times next year instead of 4. Combine that in addition to their 60 days paid vacation and the 4 day, 5 hour work days hopefully they will be able to cope.




I often wonder why Europeans don't follow the American labor model as well. 2 weeks holiday, 40 hour work weeks (closer to 50-60 for salary workers), 6 weeks maternity leave (who needs a healed va jay jay to go back to work anyways), no livable wage unskilled labor jobs, corrupt or non-existent unions. Sounds like paradise.
 
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Aesma
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:16 am

vc10 wrote:
Every body here says what they believe what will happen with after Brexit and quote % figures for EU exports to UK and visa versa, however no one really knows, politics is a strange world.

When the EU % of exports to the UK is quoted as only 3% that means 3% of the EU's total GDP, but when you look at the % figure for particular countries that tells a different story.

According to OEC figures for 2014
23 % of Germany's car production was exported to the UK


Well upthread you can read that German unions in the car sector (some of the most powerful unions on the planet) are ready to lose some of that.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:19 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
You can quote overall statistics, for ever and a day, to prove or disprove that free trade would or would not hurt one Country or another, but what has to be acknowledged by both sides is that in some parts of the economy, EU - UK trade is exceedingly important if not vital. If you are a producer of Prosecco, the loss of the UK market would be hard to bear, the fact that it is insignificant in terms of the overall Italian economy would be irrelevant. Likewise a producer of light weight lamb carcasses in the UK has few options apart from sending them to Europe. As with the Prosecco producer, the light lamb trade to Europe is insignificant in National terms, but crucial to a UK hill farmer who struggles to produce lambs to UK spec.


Of course macro economics is just the sum of a lot of micro economics and some of them will suffer depending on how much their customers can withstand a price hike.

But look at it this way: EU producers lose one big customer, so to speak, the UK loses something like 9 of their top 10, plus 17 smaller others.

It's easy to see who's in a better position to readjust their production.
 
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seahawk
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:30 pm

The Eu is dead, the Brits were the first to notice.
 
vc10
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:37 pm

jjj
But look at it this way: EU producers lose one big customer, so to speak, the UK loses something like 9 of their top 10, plus 17 smaller others.

Yes you are quite correct, but look at the trade deficit we have with some of these countries, so if trade barriers are introduced it is in no country's best interest


n 2015, United Kingdom incurred the highest trade deficits with the following countries:
Germany: -UiS$46.1 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2015)
China: -$33.9 billion.
Netherlands: -$20.3 billion.
Norway: -$14.1 billion.
Belgium: -$13.5 billion.
Italy: -$11.2 billion.
France: -$9.1 billion.
Spain: -$8.2 billion.
 
JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:59 pm

vc10 wrote:
jjj
But look at it this way: EU producers lose one big customer, so to speak, the UK loses something like 9 of their top 10, plus 17 smaller others.

Yes you are quite correct, but look at the trade deficit we have with some of these countries, so if trade barriers are introduced it is in no country's best interest


n 2015, United Kingdom incurred the highest trade deficits with the following countries:
Germany: -UiS$46.1 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2015)
China: -$33.9 billion.
Netherlands: -$20.3 billion.
Norway: -$14.1 billion.
Belgium: -$13.5 billion.
Italy: -$11.2 billion.
France: -$9.1 billion.
Spain: -$8.2 billion.


If I have a thousand pounds and lose a tenner on the laundry but you have a hundred pounds and lose a fiver who ends up worse off?

Both are losses, but one will be felt much more.
 
Klaus
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:55 pm

vc10 wrote:
When you look at the UK's exports to the rest of the EU this 13% figure includes our oil exports, which amounts to some 13% of our total EU exports. Now if the EU does not want our oil I am sure we could finda market for it else where.


That is increasingly a buyer's market, and replacing british oil is even easier for your customers.

Now I have also read today [ in German newspaper ] that VW are proposing to lay off some 30,000 workers after the diesel scandal so perhaps now is not the best time to loose one of it's big export makets


Simply forget about that pie-in-the-sky Brexit argument. There will be no concessions on EU fundamentals for Britain. Brexit is a result of a british decision and its moderate effects for the EU27 don't work as leverage. There is practically zero appetite for appeasement among the EU27 population and any difficulties are correctly perceived to have been caused by Britain's Brexit blunder.

Angela Merkal said last week that there is perhaps some room to cater for the UK's immigration problem,


That had always existed, but it was the british government who decided not to use it. The EU had nothing to do with that. The Brexit campaign just lied about that as well as about pretty much everything else.

and yes we do have a problem as the the UK in area is a relatively small country say compared to Germany or France and yet we have a population about the same size as France and somewhat smaller than Germany and with English being a nearly universal language immigrants will tend to prefer to come here by choice, which very few people object to, it is the numbers that is the problem


Pretty much none of the issues from the Brexit propaganda campaign actually had anything to do with the EU. As far as those issues exist at all, they were or are results of purely domestic british policies or neglect.

Brexit is an excellent opportunity to finally realize you'll have no one else to blame any more when you're out, but it will be years too late, those who'd have needed to learn that the most just dying off or falling into dementia and generations saddled with the consequences.

seahawk wrote:
The Eu is dead, the Brits were the first to notice.


Europhobes have been claiming that for decades now.

The fact is that democracy – and that extends to the EU as the first democratic supranational alliance of its kind as well – is hard, difficult and messy, but it works. And all the alternatives have proven to be worse.

With Britain now embarking on a 19th/early 20th century re-enactment on its own, I'm pretty sure this will become more and more apparent. But by all means – have a go at it while the seas are calm and the sun is shining.

Except the seas aren't anywhere close to calm and the clouds are thick with with storms gathering even now.
 
PanHAM
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:43 pm

The trade won't stop, it will just be more complicated. There won't be many tarrif items that are dutiable, but each and every consignment entering the UK or vv must be registered into the VAT System which requires a tax declaration. That takes time and costs Money. One of the big achievements in the single market was that such facilitation had been minimized to Zero VAT when invoicing from VAT ID No. GB.... to VAT ID No. DE....., for example. The vendor and the importer submitts their VAT statistics once a month to a central Office via IT and that's it.

The UK and especially the people buying consumer goods will be paying for the more complicated method again. If the UK does not want free movement of People in the future, there won't be a free movement of goods either.

That does not mean that Germans or Dutch will not travel to the UK and vice versa and it certainly does not mean that Prosecco won't be on sale at the local Aldi or Lidl. You guys just pay more to pay for the extra work.

Brexit was one of the most stupid decisions i have seen in my professional live and all I can say is, hjave fun with your splendit Isolation, which you won't have in first place. .
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
VSMUT
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:57 pm

seahawk wrote:
The Eu is dead, the Brits were the first to notice.


The EU isn't dead, on the contrary, it is the old people who tend to oppose the EU who will be dead and gone in 10-20 years.

The statistics are pretty clear, the young who will inherit Europe clearly pro-EU. It is only a matter of time before demographics kill off the opposition, no pun intended.

:)
 
vc10
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:16 pm

Panham the UK is not going into splendid isolation as you suggest, as the world is greater than the continent of Europe and perhaps the rest of the world would like to trade with us. When you say trade will not stop you are exactly correct, but if it means the UK citizen will pay more for European goods, then they will vote with their feet and go and buy something similar from elsewhere in the world. We might have to pay more for our European imports in the future, but we are already paying more for imports from the rest of the world at present. There are plenty of car manufacturers , ship builders , food exporters etc in the world who would be glad to export to us and we could perhaps offer them the opportunity with less import duties.
The EU talks about free movement of people, but what they mean is free movement within their small club, and although the EU is a large trading block there is a world outside of it.[ please exclude Merkel moment of madness recently] Now whether we make a success of it is up to us but we will not have to ask 27 other nations for permission, and you are correct it will be up to us.

Note At one time Champagne was the sparkling wine of choice here in the UK , but as the price of it rose UK buyers found Presecco was seen as a cheaper and acceptable alternative, so put the price of Presecco up and us Brits will look for an alternative say from Australia or the USA or who knows where.
The world is a big place
 
vc10
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:24 pm

VSMUT wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The Eu is dead, the Brits were the first to notice.


The EU isn't dead, on the contrary, it is the old people who tend to oppose the EU who will be dead and gone in 10-20 years.

Your statement is correct, but there is one thing you have forgotten and that is the young get older and more experienced and their views tend to become more conservative as they grow older.

I am afraid you do not stay the young generation for very long , and I should know :old:

littlevc10
 
PanHAM
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Sat Nov 19, 2016 7:00 am

@ VC10 - OK, "Splendit Isolation" was a bit exaggerated, but fact is, the voters in the UK did not do themelsves a favor when they voted to quit the EU by a rather narrow margin. Fact is also that all These imports from Australia or other parts of the world are already available to Import now.
The Change will be that the UK Drops out of the single market and UK consumer will have to pay more for single market goods. i have explained why. There won't be a Change in availability, just the procedure to Import, resp. to Export becomes more compicated again at the expense of the consumers and the UK industry becomes less competetive.
From many replies here I see that many do not unerstand how trade and the facilitation of trade works. One can expect that the General public does not understand it as well, yet they can vote on something they do no understand. Even Boris Johnson does not unerstand it.
Coming back to Prosecco, comparing that to Champagne makes me smile. You might as well compare Champagne with tab water. Champagne is expensive because the making of the stuff is expensive and on top of that, calling it Champagne is strictly restricted to the Champagne Region, any sparkling wine from outside the Champagne must be called "Cremant". While Prosecco allows other wines from outside the Region to be named Prosecco. Champagne will always have it's Price, regardless if Britain stays in the EU or not.
What you have to understand, all These companies outside the EU and outside the UK can and do trade with any EU member already today. There are no rules to have ships for the EU built by EU ship builders. Box carrieers are build mostly in Korea and Meyer Werft in Germany is a world known specialist for cruise ships.
The campaign against the EU has nothing to do with the availability of goods in the UK or the improvement of UK firms chances on the world market. It was, at the end of the day, a simple xenophobic agitation based on open lies and mis-informations and frog mouthed Nigel won.

If all that finally happens many Brits will curse him and the Borisses for what bthey have done.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
VSMUT
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:07 pm

vc10 wrote:
Your statement is correct, but there is one thing you have forgotten and that is the young get older and more experienced and their views tend to become more conservative as they grow older.

I am afraid you do not stay the young generation for very long , and I should know :old:


It isn't a matter of young people being ignorant, and gaining anti-EU knowledge over time. That's just nonsensical.

The fact is that the old people have tainted memories of what the world was like before the EU and Schengen, the "everything was better in the good old days" falacy. Young people grew up with the EU, Schengen and all the advantages and benefits offered by it. We use webshops based in other parts of the union, travel and work across the old borders on a daily basis, have relationships across the former national boundaries and so on. We know better than to wish for some long-forgotten fantasy world that really wasn't as good as the old people remember it.

I am using the term "young people/generation", because those people are young right now. But it might be more appropriate to say "the generation that grew up with the Union".

:)
 
Kiwirob
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:52 pm

JJJ wrote:

According to PWC the UK would be set to lose 70 to 100K well-paid jobs, tied to the financial services sector alone.

https://www.pwc.co.uk/financial-service ... sector.pdf


Which is piss all compared to the 40-50,000 highly paid Norwegian oil workers who are now out of work.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:05 pm

Aesma wrote:
I was just saying that selling cars in other markets is not that simple. German and Italian manufacturers do it, but they have to design models specifically for this.

Kiwirob wrote:
Aesma wrote:
If a UK legal car doesn't follow EU rules (which already happens with small sportscar manufacturers) it can't be sold in the EU, regardless of the existence of tariffs. So it's not that simple.


TVR. In fact TVR didn't even try to comply with EU rules, instead they exported the cars as used to bypass them.


A company that hasn't sold a car in 10 years is all you've got?
 
JJJ
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:19 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
JJJ wrote:

According to PWC the UK would be set to lose 70 to 100K well-paid jobs, tied to the financial services sector alone.

https://www.pwc.co.uk/financial-service ... sector.pdf


Which is piss all compared to the 40-50,000 highly paid Norwegian oil workers who are now out of work.


Those oil workers can hardly blame their government for oil at 40$ a barrel.

British financial workers OTOH....
 
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Dutchy
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:40 pm

This needs to be resolved as soon as possible, that's the main thing. Therefore all the players need to be realistic about it, Boris Johnson included. The Brits made their choice and now they need to be realistic that they can't cherrypick things they like and dismiss the rest, it doesn't work like that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Pihero
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Re: European foreign ministers laughed at Boris Johnson

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:51 pm

So, we're left with the only solution : a hard Brexit, and nothing else.
And the sooner the better for everyone.
Let's put this farce behind us.
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