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LH707330
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Posts: 2369
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:27 pm

Anthropogenic climate change

Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:13 pm

This is a thread to discuss anthropogenic climate change to avoid derailing the biofuels thread in Tech/Ops. The concept of climate change is relatively simple:

1. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas
2. Since 1800, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen from 280 ppm to 404 ppm in December 2016
3. Humans, through their extensive use of fossil fuels and deforestation, have contributed in large part to these CO2 concentrations
4. We have already seen record hot years, record low arctic ice levels, and other indicators that warming is underway
5. Most (>97%) scientists agree on the fundamentals outlined in points 1-4 above and expect that it will worsen if left unchecked
6. The only area of disagreement among scientists is the question "How much?" Some projections say we're looking at 2 degrees, others think it'll be 2.5, etc. Due to challenges in predicting complex systems (e.g. "What happens if the Greenland ice sheet melts and disrupts the Gulf Stream?"), the projections are necessarily limited.

When addressing this, please point out which of the above areas you are responding to.
 
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flyingturtle
Posts: 5909
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:25 pm

To grasp the change in our climate during the past 22'000 years, have a look at https://xkcd.com/1732/ .

It's terrifying. We had much more extreme temperatures (both warmer and colder) in our prehistoric past. Like "New York" being covered under hundreds of meters of ice. Or palms growing at the earth's poles. But never has the temperature changed so dramatically as in the past 200 years. Never.

David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
coolian2
Posts: 2483
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:34 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:34 pm

Summer used to be December/Jan/Feb. We now have a government considering changing the school terms and holiday period so people get time off in February and March.

Yet they deny climate change.
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YIMBY
Posts: 724
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:36 pm

LH707330 wrote:
This is a thread to discuss anthropogenic climate change to avoid derailing the biofuels thread in Tech/Ops. The concept of climate change is relatively simple:

1. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas
2. Since 1800, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen from 280 ppm to 404 ppm in December 2016
3. Humans, through their extensive use of fossil fuels and deforestation, have contributed in large part to these CO2 concentrations
4. We have already seen record hot years, record low arctic ice levels, and other indicators that warming is underway
5. Most (>97%) scientists agree on the fundamentals outlined in points 1-4 above and expect that it will worsen if left unchecked
6. The only area of disagreement among scientists is the question "How much?" Some projections say we're looking at 2 degrees, others think it'll be 2.5, etc. Due to challenges in predicting complex systems (e.g. "What happens if the Greenland ice sheet melts and disrupts the Gulf Stream?"), the projections are necessarily limited.

When addressing this, please point out which of the above areas you are responding to.


Would add some other self-clear facts:
A. Three-atomic molecules absorb/reflect infrared radiation because of their rotary/vibration modes, unlike two-atomic molecules.
B. Carbon dioxide is a three-atomic molecule
C. Without the greenhouse effect, the earth would freeze
D. Several other molecules than CO2 also contribute - both positively and negatively, also reflecting solar radiation out. The net effect is much smaller than the absolute values summed. Hence small changes can have large effects.
E. Of particular importance is the circulation of water in the air. That can have huge secondary effects. These complicate the studies.

Anyone questioning the anthropogenic climate change should explain, why changes of carbon dioxide do not change radiation balance, how all emitted carbon dioxide will naturally disappear from the air or how the change is compensated otherwise by the nature. So far no one has done that even closely credibly. If is not enough to find errors or inconsistencies in the measurement or simulations. It does not help if you find that someone cheats in the measurements. Finding variations in solar radiation brings nothing new.

To challenge the climate change, you have to present a coherent theory that explains observations and predict the future without violating fundamental laws of classical thermodynamics and quantum mechanics, unless you also want to develop new quantum theory, in which case you should let your theory explain the thousands of subatomic phenomena observed.

The greenhouse effect was discovered and the possibility of global warming was suggested already at the end of 1800's so it has not been invented by 2000's Greens or Chinese.
 
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einsteinboricua
Posts: 8599
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:39 pm

YIMBY wrote:
C. Without the greenhouse effect, the earth would freeze

I know you're adding more information, but for the record: I don't think anyone disputes that (even the climate change deniers). But things in excess can be harmful (which is what they don't seem to get).

The body needs sodium to operate. Give it too much and you can eventually have severe consequences (like high blood pressure or even death). People need food to live; give them too much food and you go down the path of obesity which can lead to complications like diabetes and high blood pressure.

Nothing in excess is good: even breathing 100% oxygen is fatal.

So for all our climate change deniers: yes, the greenhouse effect has been going on for millennia, but Earth has always found a way to recycle it. While a volcano spews up CO2, the oceans and forest are doing their job to bring it back to the ground. Where lightning strikes and sparks a wildfire (which releases CO2), the Arctic and Antarctic snow slowly freezes CO2 particles (hence, why there are ice cores with different CO2 concentrations). Same in: same out. When human activity is added to the mix (both by emitting through their own means AND eliminating forests), CO2 concentrations increase. While CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas, it's the most notable one because of fossil fuels. We have no control over water vapor nor methane (I mean, to some extent but we can't train animals to fart/burp on command), but we can control how much CO2 is released and improve how much it's removed.

But of course, this is the radical liberal Sino-Russian agenda at work and I'm a paid spokesperson so why bother?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
LH707330
Topic Author
Posts: 2369
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:27 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:54 am

It seems a similar thread popped up here a while back as well: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1344181

Baffles me how people can continue to deny science....
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3710
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:38 am

Its all a con. It's huge conspiracy to make money for.... um....for the.... you know....the Washington elite, probably. They have paid off the scientists with all the proceeds that come from a more expensive way to produce energy to make sure that they can still make money.
Its amazing the foresight that they have had into this by starting many hundreds of years ago by altering what the science was saying even when we weren't aware of climate change. All this power and all this knowledge you think they'd have learned how to control YouTube and delete the videos that expose the 'truth'.

Fred
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tommy1808
Posts: 13714
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:51 am

flipdewaf wrote:
Its amazing the foresight that they have had into this by starting many hundreds of years ago by altering what the science was saying even when we weren't aware of climate change. All this power and all this knowledge you think they'd have learned how to control YouTube and delete the videos that expose the 'truth'.


They even make fake internal reports saying the same thing as the normal scientists do and kept them hidden just like the Tobacco Industrie hid those fake pesky "Smoke can cause cancer" reports they had internally ....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
afcjets
Posts: 3530
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:35 pm

It's really hard to know what to believe regarding global warming (recently renamed climate change so no matter which way it goes they were right) when the so called scientists keep manipulating data. This just came out Sunday and it sounds all too familiar...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... -data.html
 
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einsteinboricua
Posts: 8599
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:33 am

afcjets wrote:
This just came out Sunday and it sounds all too familiar...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... -data.html

A conservative tabloid? Nice try. Bring a more reliable source and I would at least give you the benefit of the doubt.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13714
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:47 am

afcjets wrote:
It's really hard to know what to believe regarding global warming (recently renamed climate change so no matter which way it goes they were right) when the so called scientists keep manipulating data. This just came out Sunday and it sounds all too familiar...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... -data.html


riiight.... http://www.popsci.com/regardless-house- ... te-records

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... -manipula/

So, basically Bates, that worked in the Datacenter, is saying "We manage our data badly, and our badly managed data doesn´t say exactly what the Karl Report says, but everybody elses Data confirms it, but please ignore that".

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
WIederling
Posts: 9423
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Anthropogenic climate change

Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:53 am

afcjets wrote:
It's really hard to know what to believe regarding global warming


This is not a religion.

You are talking about Science.
Take the effort and understand available data on your own.
Murphy is an optimist

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