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jmc1975
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Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:41 am

We continue to hear more about a referendum going to ballot in California in 2018, that would open up the open the door to sucession from the USA. What potential impact would it have on airline networks and California airports? Would it be positive or negative? What aspects? Open up the floodgates of discussion!
Last edited by jmc1975 on Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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texl1649
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:44 am

A civil war was fought over this issue. A referendum has no impact. This should be deleted.
 
Whalejet
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:47 am

If California tried to secede California wouldn't exist within a few hours.
 
jmc1975
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:48 am

texl1649 wrote:
A civil war was fought over this issue. A referendum has no impact. This should be deleted.

Not so fast. Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. There are plenty of people in our society who do not know history. Again, let's have a discussion here!
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MalevTU134
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:49 am

jmc1975 wrote:
We continue to hear more about a referendum going to ballot in California in 2018, that would open up the open the door to succession from the USA. What potential impact would it have on airline networks and California airports? Would it be positive or negative? What aspects? Open up the floodgates of discussion!


First of all, it's secession. Secondly, it will never happen. The only state that has the right to secede from the United States is Texas. This was negotiated when they gained statehood. Your question is therefore pure fantasy, highly hypothetical. Any answers would be more than speculation, as no parameters can be known. Pure waste of time.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:53 am

jmc1975 wrote:
Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.


Good point. If you want to know what would happen, just study the history of what happened the last time a state seceded from the union.

jmc1975 wrote:
There are plenty of people in our society who do not know history.


Like a certain poster who has obviously never heard of Texas vs. White?
 
jmc1975
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:54 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
We continue to hear more about a referendum going to ballot in California in 2018, that would open up the open the door to succession from the USA. What potential impact would it have on airline networks and California airports? Would it be positive or negative? What aspects? Open up the floodgates of discussion!


First of all, it's secession. Secondly, it will never happen. The only state that has the right to secede from the United States is Texas. This was negotiated when they gained statehood. Your question is therefore pure fantasy, highly hypothetical. Any answers would be more than speculation, as no parameters can be known. Pure waste of time.

Isn't a lot of discussion on this forum hypothetical speculation? Please let's have a civil discussion about this.
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MalevTU134
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:02 am

IPFreely wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.


Good point. If you want to know what would happen, just study the history of what happened the last time a state seceded from the union.

jmc1975 wrote:
There are plenty of people in our society who do not know history.


Like a certain poster who has obviously never heard of Texas vs. White?


Sure I've heard of Texas vs. White. But there is also the Texas constitution that is contradictory to that, and I believe Texas never officially accepted that verdict. The case is not clear. Anyway....let me rephrase it. Texas is the only state that MAY...maybe...have the right to leave the United States. And if so, then probably with the acceptance of the other 49 states.
 
VS11
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:06 am

Well, assuming Mexico doesn't go to war to claim it back, it will become a separate country. It will have a separate currency and all. Aviation-wise, it will have to sign up treaties with the other countries i.e. the US, EU, Australia, etc. for aviation services. They could decide to have a "flag" carrier. They could decide to restrict how many "mainland" carriers can fly into their airports. AS will regret buying VX, if expanding into California was the goal for that purchase :lol: :rotfl:
 
IPFreely
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:12 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
Sure I've heard of Texas vs. White.


You are not the certain poster. The certain poster is the OP. His post refers to plenty of people who do not know history. Perhaps he includes himself in that group? Because he has obviously never heard of Texas vs. White. And for some reason believes California can secede via a statewide referendum.
 
JRL3289
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:12 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.


Good point. If you want to know what would happen, just study the history of what happened the last time a state seceded from the union.

jmc1975 wrote:
There are plenty of people in our society who do not know history.


Like a certain poster who has obviously never heard of Texas vs. White?


Sure I've heard of Texas vs. White. But there is also the Texas constitution that is contradictory to that, and I believe Texas never officially accepted that verdict. The case is not clear. Anyway....let me rephrase it. Texas is the only state that MAY...maybe...have the right to leave the United States. And if so, then probably with the acceptance of the other 49 states.


What is unclear? The US Constitution is particularly clear on this issue: state constitutions are subordinate to the US Constitution; federal law governs in instances of conflict with state laws.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:14 am

What California doesn't realize is that since it (like every other state) is very much entangled with the rest of the Union and federal govt. Feferal subsidies, tax breaks, welfare etc... would all be lost if any state were to leave. California does contribute a lot of the US GDP, but it is a cog in the system, and without the system, California would be a shell of what it is now.

If you want to pull up Brexit as a comparison, the UK was already a sovereign nation, and the EU is nowhere near as solid of a pact as the US and the EU states aren't as intertwined as their American counterparts are.

As posters have said, Texas is the only state that has a chance to secede as we joined on our own will as a sovereign nation. We were conquered, purchased or claimed by the US govt (excluding the Civil War). One state that has an even smaller chance is Hawaii. They were in a round-about way conquered by the US.

Lastly, Calexit? With a state that has the human capital and talented population like California, that's the best name y'all came up with?
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:25 am

JRL3289 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
IPFreely wrote:

Good point. If you want to know what would happen, just study the history of what happened the last time a state seceded from the union.



Like a certain poster who has obviously never heard of Texas vs. White?


Sure I've heard of Texas vs. White. But there is also the Texas constitution that is contradictory to that, and I believe Texas never officially accepted that verdict. The case is not clear. Anyway....let me rephrase it. Texas is the only state that MAY...maybe...have the right to leave the United States. And if so, then probably with the acceptance of the other 49 states.


What is unclear? The US Constitution is particularly clear on this issue: state constitutions are subordinate to the US Constitution; federal law governs in instances of conflict with state laws.


Good. So we agree that this thread is moot?
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:28 am

This isn't happening. It's a joke and not worth debate.

Btw - look up the State of Jefferson secession movement that has been going on for a long time and has gotten nowhere.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:30 am

TWA772LR wrote:
What California doesn't realize is that since it (like every other state) is very much entangled with the rest of the Union and federal govt. Feferal subsidies, tax breaks, welfare etc... would all be lost if any state were to leave. California does contribute a lot of the US GDP, but it is a cog in the system, and without the system, California would be a shell of what it is now.

If you want to pull up Brexit as a comparison, the UK was already a sovereign nation, and the EU is nowhere near as solid of a pact as the US and the EU states aren't as intertwined as their American counterparts are.

As posters have said, Texas is the only state that has a chance to secede as we joined on our own will as a sovereign nation. We were conquered, purchased or claimed by the US govt (excluding the Civil War). One state that has an even smaller chance is Hawaii. They were in a round-about way conquered by the US.

Lastly, Calexit? With a state that has the human capital and talented population like California, that's the best name y'all came up with?


This isn't happening so not worth debate, but you do realize that California is a massive net contributor to the Federal budget. It pays in far more than it receives. The big irony of the Federal budget is that the "small government" red states get more Federal subsidy that the blue states.
 
jupiter2
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:32 am

Mexico and California vs "The Don". Maybe California should build a wall to keep the rest of the country out ?

But that is what happens when a big population state keeps voting a certain way, but because of an out dated electoral system, smaller states get a a larger say in who ends up running the country, that goes against that big population states vote.

We have our own flawed system, but it is better than the U.S.A. Less of a circus as well
 
AAIL86
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:33 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
We continue to hear more about a referendum going to ballot in California in 2018, that would open up the open the door to succession from the USA. What potential impact would it have on airline networks and California airports? Would it be positive or negative? What aspects? Open up the floodgates of discussion!


First of all, it's secession. Secondly, it will never happen. The only state that has the right to secede from the United States is Texas. This was negotiated when they gained statehood. Your question is therefore pure fantasy, highly hypothetical. Any answers would be more than speculation, as no parameters can be known. Pure waste of time.


Texas cannot secede any more then California can. I'd also say the same things to the Californians that I've been saying to my fellow Texans who have been raving about Obama the last eight years - the US military is pledged to defend the Federal government. It doesn't matter if the head of that government is Barrack Obama or Donald Trump. Legally and practically, under current circumstances it would be next to impossible to break away without changing the constitution and possibly defending that change in the Supreme Court.

Now, if circumstances where to change drastically, say, the United States was fighting a major war vs a great power and lots of civic upheaval was taking place; then such a scenario could be more likely.
But commercial air traffic would have suffered mightily by then anyways...
" Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness ... Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime. ” - Mark Twain, 1869
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:38 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
What California doesn't realize is that since it (like every other state) is very much entangled with the rest of the Union and federal govt. Feferal subsidies, tax breaks, welfare etc... would all be lost if any state were to leave. California does contribute a lot of the US GDP, but it is a cog in the system, and without the system, California would be a shell of what it is now.

If you want to pull up Brexit as a comparison, the UK was already a sovereign nation, and the EU is nowhere near as solid of a pact as the US and the EU states aren't as intertwined as their American counterparts are.

As posters have said, Texas is the only state that has a chance to secede as we joined on our own will as a sovereign nation. We were conquered, purchased or claimed by the US govt (excluding the Civil War). One state that has an even smaller chance is Hawaii. They were in a round-about way conquered by the US.

Lastly, Calexit? With a state that has the human capital and talented population like California, that's the best name y'all came up with?


This isn't happening so not worth debate, but you do realize that California is a massive net contributor to the Federal budget. It pays in far more than it receives. The big irony of the Federal budget is that the "small government" red states get more Federal subsidy that the blue states.

I'm not saying it would only apply to California, it'd happen to every other state, including my beloved Texas. The involvement of the federal government and the states is much more than a line on the map.

Per the Vice President of the Dallas FED-Houston branch, Houston itself has the 26th largest GDP in the world, just ahead of Saudi Arabia. If Houston decided to Hexit (amalgamation of H-Town and Exit), there's no way we would still hold that rank just because of all of the government involvement in nearly everything and government expesnitures/funding.




Now to take this to actually being aviation-related, California would have to sign a bilateral that calls for unlimited flights and seats between it and the US. If not, all US airllines ,ould have to severely draw down or even close their CA hubs, then all flights from the US to SFO and LAX would have to be widebodies to meet demand. On the flip side, I could see California passing laws for seemless intl-intl connections, which would make it an international fliers dream to transit. There would be a lot more South America-California-Asia flights as a result.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
VS11
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:48 am

To make it more interesting: There is a Russian connection. In 2008, a Russian professor predicted the break-up of the USA. The WSJ reports:

As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123051100709638419

It is also possible that other states may want to leave or rather ditch the poorer states that elected Trump. The entire Northeast could decide to secede, except maybe PA.

It is also possible and probably realistic that we amend the Constitution to get rid of the Electoral College.
 
grbauc
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:56 am

jmc1975 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
We continue to hear more about a referendum going to ballot in California in 2018, that would open up the open the door to succession from the USA. What potential impact would it have on airline networks and California airports? Would it be positive or negative? What aspects? Open up the floodgates of discussion!


First of all, it's secession. Secondly, it will never happen. The only state that has the right to secede from the United States is Texas. This was negotiated when they gained statehood. Your question is therefore pure fantasy, highly hypothetical. Any answers would be more than speculation, as no parameters can be known. Pure waste of time.

Isn't a lot of discussion on this forum hypothetical speculation? Please let's have a civil discussion about this.


we hear in California laugh there will be no secession. Tabloid news at best
 
alfa164
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:57 am

Whalejet wrote:
If California tried to secede California wouldn't exist within a few hours.


Maybe... maybe not. A lot of members in the current president's party have expressed the desire that California remove itself from the Union. Just for the sake of argument, suppose they - in control of the presidency, both houses of Congress, and enough State houses to pass a Constitutional amendment - decided they really wanted to do it. In the Loony-Tunes world of domestic politics now... anything is possible. Hell, he might even decide to sell (or give) Alaska to Putin... :roll:

MalevTU134 wrote:
The only state that has the right to secede from the United States is Texas. This was negotiated when they gained statehood.


That is false. When Texas entered statehood, they negotiated an agreement wherein the State of Texas could be divided into 5 states - not the ability to secede. Nobody could positively declare that such a move would be viable today... but the prospect of having ten Senators is interesting...
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
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FlyingSicilian
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:59 am

Texas has no special right to secede (nor does Hawai'i, both were independent and recognized first), it does have the right to split itself into up to five state WITHOUT US congressional approval. That is in the treaty of annexation between Texas and the United States.
The star on the California flag originally referencedTexas BTW ;-)

as for Calexit (or Texit previously), neither will happen but both could easily survive on their own.

Hypothetically, Comm. Aviation demand would likely shrink a bit as business demand/needs readjusted but California ag exports and Texas energy exports would drive demand IMO for flighs back to the US which would likely be their biggest markets. But, again, just an academic exercise as it will not happen.
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:01 am

The better argument is whether we should we be splitting Cal into two states.

Look up the presidential results by county in California for the last couple of presidential races. I've seen it hypothesized that LA to San Francisco along the coast should be carved out into a separate state.

Another theory is that NYC should be made into a city state as it dominates state gov't outside of the NY Senate due to it's huge population. It effectively marginalizes most of the rest of the state.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:05 am

Flyingsicilian and alfa164, thank you for setting me straight on the Texas issue. A myth that I had swallowed, obviously.
 
mham001
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:39 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
This isn't happening so not worth debate, but you do realize that California is a massive net contributor to the Federal budget. It pays in far more than it receives. The big irony of the Federal budget is that the "small government" red states get more Federal subsidy that the blue states.


Myth, myth, myth. Believe that at your own peril.

There is a NEW, slightly un-transparent report by the CA Legislative Analyst's Office that pretty much refutes. In fact, it does refute that myth, it just refuses to admit by how much.....but does use another analysis that shows a 1% difference. And BTW, the other states are not all red, nor all blue.

Is California a “Donor State”? In 2007, the Tax Foundation published estimates, using FFY 1981-2005 data, that showed California received $0.78 in federal spending for every dollar paid in federal taxes (in the most recent year). Some have used this finding to suggest that California pays much more in taxes than it receives in expenditures (and, for that reason, has been dubbed a “donor state”). It is important to note that the Tax Foundation figure is adjusted to be deficit neutral so that the federal government receives $1 in taxes for each $1 it spends. To do this, the Tax Foundation increases its estimate of tax revenues from each state in proportion to the total federal deficit. In effect, this inflates the estimated amount Californians “pay” in taxes.

http://www.lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/2
 
mham001
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:48 am

FlyingSicilian wrote:
Hypothetically, Comm. Aviation demand would likely shrink a bit as business demand/needs readjusted but California ag exports and Texas energy exports would drive demand IMO for flighs back to the US which would likely be their biggest markets. But, again, just an academic exercise as it will not happen.


I'd question the value of the ag industry, California would lose rights to the Colorado River and without it, SoCal dries up. I don't believe either state could support itself, they would need a defense infrastructure as well and would be starting from scratch. They would also need to purchase federal lands (45% of CA). Really a ridiculous idea. Or....
Image
 
Varsity1
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:57 am

This was attempted in 1860 on a much larger scale.

California would be 'invaded' and conquered by Federal forces. A ton of people would spend the rest of their lives in Federal Prison. End of story.
 
FlyingSicilian
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:25 am

mham001 wrote:
FlyingSicilian wrote:
Hypothetically, Comm. Aviation demand would likely shrink a bit as business demand/needs readjusted but California ag exports and Texas energy exports would drive demand IMO for flighs back to the US which would likely be their biggest markets. But, again, just an academic exercise as it will not happen.


I'd question the value of the ag industry, California would lose rights to the Colorado River and without it, SoCal dries up. I don't believe either state could support itself, they would need a defense infrastructure as well and would be starting from scratch. They would also need to purchase federal lands (45% of CA). Really a ridiculous idea. Or....


The value of ag from Cali. is extremely high, and they would still be able to buy water as needed as the fluvial cycle fluctuates. They are the largest ag state by far in the US.

Texas could easily support itself. It has nearly 40% of the US's refining capacity and massive oil reserves. It would immediately be an oil exporter. Defence would not be a huge issue either. Plus Texas has little federal land relatively speaking. As part of the annexation treaty with the US Texas got to keep all its public lands. All Federal land in Texas was bought (or donated in some cases like parts of NASA). Texas also has its own gold reserves, and other unique resources like helium for example. Again, purely academic, but Texas could survive IMV.

Make Mexico Spain again...
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:27 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
Sure I've heard of Texas vs. White. But there is also the Texas constitution that is contradictory to that, and I believe Texas never officially accepted that verdict. The case is not clear. Anyway....let me rephrase it. Texas is the only state that MAY...maybe...have the right to leave the United States. And if so, then probably with the acceptance of the other 49 states.


As a statement of absolute principle, I believe the right of secession is a natural right. To quote the Declaration of Independence:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.


While the bar must be pretty high ("Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes"), maybe a 2/3rds majority or something like that, but as a statement of principle, if a part of a nation wants to spin off and go their own way because they feel that the national government does not serve their interests, for the national government to say "no, you can't leave" is nothing short of despotic.

So if the people of California really want to leave the US, I wish them well on their way. But I think most of the support for this project is based on a lot of hot air.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:33 am

mham001 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
This isn't happening so not worth debate, but you do realize that California is a massive net contributor to the Federal budget. It pays in far more than it receives. The big irony of the Federal budget is that the "small government" red states get more Federal subsidy that the blue states.


Myth, myth, myth. Believe that at your own peril.

There is a NEW, slightly un-transparent report by the CA Legislative Analyst's Office that pretty much refutes. In fact, it does refute that myth, it just refuses to admit by how much.....but does use another analysis that shows a 1% difference. And BTW, the other states are not all red, nor all blue.

Is California a “Donor State”? In 2007, the Tax Foundation published estimates, using FFY 1981-2005 data, that showed California received $0.78 in federal spending for every dollar paid in federal taxes (in the most recent year). Some have used this finding to suggest that California pays much more in taxes than it receives in expenditures (and, for that reason, has been dubbed a “donor state”). It is important to note that the Tax Foundation figure is adjusted to be deficit neutral so that the federal government receives $1 in taxes for each $1 it spends. To do this, the Tax Foundation increases its estimate of tax revenues from each state in proportion to the total federal deficit. In effect, this inflates the estimated amount Californians “pay” in taxes.

http://www.lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/2


If you read the report CA still gets the 8th lowest per capita Federal spend. Including the deficit spending doesn't close that gap. Even if the Federal govt balanced the budget it's not like they'd leave CA with their 99 cents on the dollar and take it away from their high federal states. And given the size of CA and it's economy it is a massive contribution.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:51 am

A very short civil war with many dead liberals.
 
Derico
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:43 am

Varsity1 wrote:
This was attempted in 1860 on a much larger scale.

California would be 'invaded' and conquered by Federal forces. A ton of people would spend the rest of their lives in Federal Prison. End of story.


Sounds like a tyrannical Union.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
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BartSimpson
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:37 am

seahawk wrote:
A very short civil war with many dead liberals.


Is that a wet dream of yours?
 
VSMUT
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:00 am

alfa164 wrote:
Maybe... maybe not. A lot of members in the current president's party have expressed the desire that California remove itself from the Union. Just for the sake of argument, suppose they - in control of the presidency, both houses of Congress, and enough State houses to pass a Constitutional amendment - decided they really wanted to do it. In the Loony-Tunes world of domestic politics now... anything is possible. Hell, he might even decide to sell (or give) Alaska to Putin... :roll:


Yep, I don't really think the republicans would be in that much of a hurry to prevent them from leaving. We must remember that without California, the democrats are pretty much doomed to sit on the sidelines. It would instantly remove 55 electoral votes from them. Congress and Senate would almost certainly be dominated by Republicans for a very long time. It would also give the Republicans a better chance in the presidential elections.
 
Jalap
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:40 am

seahawk wrote:
A very short civil war with many dead liberals.

Yes, freedom is overrated. The only good opposition is a dead opposition.

It is scary to read what people like you type here. I always wonder if people in such state of mind would prefer joining SS or Gestapo in Nazi Germany.

In my interpretation of the word "Freedom": If a majority of people in a certain region or state or whatever want independence, they should be allowed to build up to it and then get it. Within certain limits of course, mixed ethnics like in Bosnia make a clear separation very difficult.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:04 am

Jalap wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A very short civil war with many dead liberals.

Yes, freedom is overrated. The only good opposition is a dead opposition.

It is scary to read what people like you type here. I always wonder if people in such state of mind would prefer joining SS or Gestapo in Nazi Germany.

In my interpretation of the word "Freedom": If a majority of people in a certain region or state or whatever want independence, they should be allowed to build up to it and then get it. Within certain limits of course, mixed ethnics like in Bosnia make a clear separation very difficult.


Is California not free as a state of the US? I personally think the idea of secession is quite undemocratic, because in the end it means: "If the other states do not agree with us, we are no longer part of this community." But democracy means that you might have to accept that other opinions get the majority vote and that not everybody sees things as you do. Leaving the community whenever the majority disagrees with your point of view leads to anarchy. If California can go its own way, why should the counties be forced to stay with California and if the counties can go, why are the communities forced to stay with the counties.. in the end you can break it down until there is no community left.

And currently the law is quite clear, the federal government would be forced to stop a secession at all costs, like they did in the Civil War. But I guess you support the Confederates in the civil war, as obviously their freedom to have salves was not granted.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:22 am

I suppose California is also suffering from acute case of the London Syndrome, "when others wealth concentrate in one place they start thinking they are rich". 5 counties around DC, few counties in CA and TX are suffering from this syndrome.

Keep in mind without other states paying their taxes, there is no scope of few states nursing on federal spending and built industries around it.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:24 pm

1. It's interesting how many here chime in and want to put an end to the discussion. I thought Free Speech meant we can speculate what may or may not happen in this type of scenario? Who are you to say "This should be deleted" or "End of story"? Who died and made you supreme moderator? And it's liberals who suppress free speech?
2. Interesting how, when Obama won reelection in 2012, many relished the idea of the conservative states leaving the union (you know, because Obama is this radical socialist dictator bent on overreach) but the same people now insist such proposals are stupid...really? What a short memory.
3. Calexit or Texit will not happen. There would have to be massive movements in all the US states with an overwhelming majority in each in order for the federal government to recognize that Union has failed. As long as you have an imbalance of payments, some states will seek to retain the Union at all cost (can anyone see MS and AL being successful on their own?). The main difference is that some states have a well diversified economy that they don't need government investment. CA can do away with its military bases and, assuming Silicon Valley remains there, it can get away as a successful new country.

seahawk wrote:
because in the end it means: "If the other states do not agree with us, we are no longer part of this community."
Isn't that what people usually do when they don't agree with their community? If I don't agree with how my state is handled, I move to another. It's tyrannical to be perpetually tied to an arrangement that is not working out for you. The problem is when you make the agreement, if there's no escape clause, you're screwed. People complain about how "coastal elites" shouldn't tell us how to live...well, why should "country bumpkins" tell me how to live?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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seahawk
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:41 pm

Well for the previous 8 years it were the conservative states who were unhappy with the president. And as I see it the Democrats did not loose the election in Idaho, they lost in Florida and Pennsylvania.
 
johns624
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:42 pm

Not quite aviation related, but if CA seceded, the US would lose their two (by far) largest Pacific commercial ports where the majority of the Chinese imports come in. The Navy would also lose their largest Pacific base with Bremerton/Everett and Pearl Harbor being too small to take up the slack. The Marines would lose Camp Pendleton and the Army would lose the NTC. The Air Force would lose several bases.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:25 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
As long as you have an imbalance of payments, some states will seek to retain the Union at all cost (can anyone see MS and AL being successful on their own?). The main difference is that some states have a well diversified economy that they don't need government investment. CA can do away with its military bases and, assuming Silicon Valley remains there, it can get away as a successful new country.


No actually imbalance in federal spending is the root cause of the problem. Take out all the federal spending and see how big the CA's economy is. Metro DC spending $3Trillion a year, is that the purchasing power for NOVA,MD and DC?

One time sequestration cut of $300 Billion, Metro DC, Texas and CA were crying like babies.

Metro Detroit has 600,000 IT professionals, Virginia has even more so does other states. So why would Michigan or Virginia buy software from Country of California. We can develop cheaper and better software we need right here.

I would say there should be per state minimum(say 2%) and maximum(say 10 %) limits on federal spending.

Just my opinion of a hypothetical situation, take it easy.
All posts are just opinions.
 
dtw9
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:30 pm

johns624 wrote:
Not quite aviation related, but if CA seceded, the US would lose their two (by far) largest Pacific commercial ports where the majority of the Chinese imports come in. The Navy would also lose their largest Pacific base with Bremerton/Everett and Pearl Harbor being too small to take up the slack. The Marines would lose Camp Pendleton and the Army would lose the NTC. The Air Force would lose several bases.



The U.S. wouldn't lose any bases in California as the U.S.Government owns over 45% of the land area of the State.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:18 pm

johns624 wrote:
Not quite aviation related, but if CA seceded, the US would lose their two (by far) largest Pacific commercial ports where the majority of the Chinese imports come in. The Navy would also lose their largest Pacific base with Bremerton/Everett and Pearl Harbor being too small to take up the slack. The Marines would lose Camp Pendleton and the Army would lose the NTC. The Air Force would lose several bases.



Those bases would occupy the state.

Calexit is a liberal wet dream. It will never happen.
 
Jalap
Posts: 656
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:20 pm

seahawk wrote:
Is California not free as a state of the US? I personally think the idea of secession is quite undemocratic, because in the end it means: "If the other states do not agree with us, we are no longer part of this community." But democracy means that you might have to accept that other opinions get the majority vote and that not everybody sees things as you do. Leaving the community whenever the majority disagrees with your point of view leads to anarchy. If California can go its own way, why should the counties be forced to stay with California and if the counties can go, why are the communities forced to stay with the counties.. in the end you can break it down until there is no community left.

And currently the law is quite clear, the federal government would be forced to stop a secession at all costs, like they did in the Civil War. But I guess you support the Confederates in the civil war, as obviously their freedom to have salves was not granted.

Valid points. However, looking from European perspective, the right wing people have exactly the opposite view. Trump-supporters in Belgium usually are the ones demanding an end of Belgium and the region of Flanders becoming an independent country. I'm not one of them and would be very sad if one day they get the majority and democratically (single sided) break up my country. But I would still not want the Federal army to step in and hold the country together with the use of force.

As for the civil war argument, of course the cause was just. In your reasoning, the USA also shouldn't have declared independence from England.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:11 pm

The USA however was a colony, which means it citizens did not have equal rights as the British, while California citizens have the same rights as any other citizen of the USA, while California has many fields in which the state is regulating the law. In Belgium you have at least a cultural divide between the French and Dutch speaking parts, or in Spain the Catalonia where the language and culture is different from the rest of Spain, so you have factual reasons why they might desire independence. I do not see this for California.

In the end those tendencies also have no direct connection to being left or right wing, they are usually just used by those groups who despise the current federal government.
 
mham001
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:49 pm

seahawk wrote:
In Belgium you have at least a cultural divide between the French and Dutch speaking parts, or in Spain the Catalonia where the language and culture is different from the rest of Spain, so you have factual reasons why they might desire independence. I do not see this for California.


There is some basis for that, California is 30% foreign-born, and many more just first generation, most of which is centered along the coast in two areas. They and their children are immediately taught a very liberal, often anti-US/white cultural point of view in the schools. There is a rather severe disconnect between the coast (SF/LA) and points a few dozen miles inland.
 
Flighty
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:33 pm

I think the industry would be negatively affected by the California secession, subsequent extreme conservatism of the Union USA and the millions of deaths and extreme destruction that would occur in California during the new civil war. I think that California would surrender quickly, but federal troops would still destroy significant parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco, mowing down confederate rebels mercilessly.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:45 pm

Flighty wrote:
I think the industry would be negatively affected by the California secession, subsequent extreme conservatism of the Union USA and the millions of deaths and extreme destruction that would occur in California during the new civil war. I think that California would surrender quickly, but federal troops would still destroy significant parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco, mowing down confederate rebels mercilessly.


It would be fairly easy with the liberal gun laws here. I don't think there would be many deaths, they'd have to surrender.
 
Hillis
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:15 pm

Whalejet wrote:
If California tried to secede California wouldn't exist within a few hours.


Don't bet on it. This isn't like when Texans talked about it. Texas takes far more in federal dollars than they give. California is the opposite. That makes a huge difference right away, as they're not as dependent on Washington.

And it's likely that if California leaves, there's a good chance Hawaii Oregon and Washington State would join them.. Nevada could follow as well. But California has one of the largest economies in the world, and it has a broad base of jobs that will keep it viable. It would have it's own coastline to the world, where it can freely trade unimpeeded with most of the world, especially Asia. They have a large enough population that they could field their own military. And it's a good bet China would give California Favored-Nation status, legitimizing such a new nation rather quickly.

The downside for the rest of us losers here in the U.S. is that it would mean turning the U.S. into a truly facists state, at the mercy of far right-wing conservatives, who would turn this nation from being one of the most admired in the world, to perhaps the most dangerous in the world. The Democrats, quite frankly, can't win anything without California, just as the GOP would have a hard time winning anything if Texas went it's own way.

For the sake of the rest of us, I hope they don't try to leave, because if they do, I fear for the rest of the nation.
 
Hillis
Posts: 1307
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Re: Calexit impact on on airline industry / airports

Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:21 pm

Flighty wrote:
I think the industry would be negatively affected by the California secession, subsequent extreme conservatism of the Union USA and the millions of deaths and extreme destruction that would occur in California during the new civil war. I think that California would surrender quickly, but federal troops would still destroy significant parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco, mowing down confederate rebels mercilessly.


I don't think there'd be a Civil War. I think California, for a while, would still use the U.S. Dollar, while they convert to their own currency. I don't think a nation of California would take emminant domain of U.S. military assest in what is now California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. And I do believe that the American people as a whole, would not stand for the specter of a bloody conflict with U.S. troops killing Californians. Even under the current occupant of the White House, I do think that scenario will not take place.

As for the airline industry, I don't think it would have a huge effect. LAX, SFO, SAN, SJC, SMF, SNA, etc, will still have high demand for air service, and while eventually, a new California would have their own passports, for a while, there would be still travel permitted using drivers license for flights. The ATC system wouldn't suffer ,as I imagine there would be an agreement to continue allowing the FAA to run facilities in California for a period.

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