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jbpdx
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'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:46 pm

The Travel Press is Reporting the 'Trump Slump,' a Devastating Drop in Tourism to the United States

Frommers : "Experts across the travel industry are warning that masses of tourists are being scared away from visiting the United States, and the loss of tourism jobs could be devastating."


http://www.frommers.com/tips/miscellane ... Zv.twitter
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enilria
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:52 pm

The same slump that has led to more Dow records in a row than any year since 1985?
 
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exFWAOONW
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:55 pm

What "experts"? If they are experts, name them so they can take credit if they are right. Sounds like more biased, wishful thinking, disguised as news.
Is just me, or is flying not as much fun anymore?
 
Skywatcher
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:56 pm

I have been travelling to the states 3 or 4 times a year for decades. I don't mean to offend anybody and I'm sure most Americans don't care or might even figure "good riddance" but I'll be visiting the Caribbean and Europe for the foreseeable future instead. Lots to experience there for sure. Many Canadians feel a little more unwelcome in the states these days.
 
KentB27
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:00 pm

People have incredibly short memories. Give it a few months and I'm sure things will pick up again.
 
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enilria
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:05 pm

As far as travel by distinct religious groups, flight passengers from the seven Muslim-majority nations named by Trump were down by 80% in the last week of January and first week of February, according to Forward Keys, a well-known firm of travel statisticians.
First of all, including USA passports there are only 250 passengers per day to all those countries from the USA. Second, some of the countries don't even have any presently open airports. Third, of course they are down if there is a ban. Fourth, collectively it's so tiny as not to affect anything.

<I>
On the web, flight searches for trips heading to the U.S. out of all international locations was recently down by 17%.

A drop of that magnitude, if continued, would reduce the value of foreign travel within the U.S. by billions of dollars. And the number of jobs supported by foreign tourists and their expenditures in the United States—and thus lost—would easily exceed hundreds of thousands of workers in hotels, restaurants, transportation, stores, tour operations, travel agencies, and the like. </I>
Web searches don't mean anything and down from when? It's low season.

This whole article has no statistics from any reputable source like enplanements, the DOT, or even an airline warning on bookings as would be typical if this were true. I can imagine Mexico may slow to the USA, but I doubt any significant drop elsewhere.
 
dmg626
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:10 pm

jbpdx wrote:
The Travel Press is Reporting the 'Trump Slump,' a Devastating Drop in Tourism to the United States

Frommers : "Experts across the travel industry are warning that masses of tourists are being scared away from visiting the United States, and the loss of tourism jobs could be devastating."


http://www.frommers.com/tips/miscellane ... Zv.twitter




I'm sure it's due to the strength of the American dollar, but believe in whatever liberal fairy tale makes you happy
 
lvs
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:23 pm

exFWAOONW wrote:
What "experts"? If they are experts, name them so they can take credit if they are right. Sounds like more biased, wishful thinking, disguised as news.


Fake news "experts".
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:26 pm

Look at your 401 k. We're in the money! Big time!

Trump slump my behind.

You may not like him, but the economy is doing great right now.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:32 pm

exFWAOONW wrote:
What "experts"? If they are experts, name them so they can take credit if they are right. Sounds like more biased, wishful thinking, disguised as news.


Well, from the article it named Travel Weekly magazine as one of the sources calling out the Trump Slump. In fact Travel Weekly fleshed out their argument in their own article here:
http://www.travelweekly.com/North-Ameri ... avel-to-US

Another expert named in the article is a company called Forwardkeys which, in the company's own words "predicts future travel patterns by crunching and analysing 14m booking transactions a day."
https://forwardkeys.com/revenue-managem ... e-USA.html

A third source named is from the Global Business Travel Association, "the world’s premier business travel and meetings organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. area with operations on six continents. GBTA’s 7,000-plus members manage more than $345 billion of global business travel and meetings expenditures annually. GBTA and the GBTA Foundation deliver world-class education, events, research, advocacy and media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active contacts."
http://www.gbta.org/PressReleases/Pages/rls_020217.aspx
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bomber996
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:34 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Look at your 401 k. We're in the money! Big time!

Trump slump my behind.

You may not like him, but the economy is doing great right now.


And just over 30 days ago the economy was doing horrible... SMH again...

Peace :box:
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msycajun
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:44 pm

https://qz.com/904883/the-effect-trump-is-having-on-international-tourism-and-air-travel/
This article provides more context for that 17% figure. For the same time frame a year earlier, the decline was only 1.8%, so there is a measurable drop in interest in travel to the US.

Obviously there will be some lag between any change in preferences and actual travel numbers given that leisure travel is mostly booked months in advance. Summer 2017 will be telling.

Apart from an interest in travel from abroad, there is a risk that US citizens will decide risk of additional hassle upon reentering the country is not worth the trouble and will decide to vacation domestically. That could also affect business travel.

And for those of you convinced the stock market represents economic growth, you may want to check the last times it set records - 2007, 2000, 1929, to name a few. You might notice a pattern...
 
IPFreely
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:52 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Well, from the article it named Travel Weekly magazine as one of the sources calling out the Trump Slump. In fact Travel Weekly fleshed out their argument in their own article here:
http://www.travelweekly.com/North-Ameri ... avel-to-US


They're argument is that the number of internet flight searches is down. Wow.

A simple graph showing the value of the US Dollar vs. the Euro and other foreign currencies will clearly correlate to increases and decreases in travel to the US. All the articles that ignore the effect of currency fluctuation and grasp at straws to make their political point are laughable.
 
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Moose135
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:55 pm

enilria wrote:
The same slump that has led to more Dow records in a row than any year since 1985?

These are great times in the stock market - largest percentage increase following a presidential election since 1928...
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
Flighty
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:59 pm

Anecdotally, I do see that oceanic flights are cheaper and USA hotels are cheaper right now than I have seen them in many years. Does anyone disagree?

We are coming into 2017's peak period now.
 
msycajun
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:00 pm

IPFreely wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Well, from the article it named Travel Weekly magazine as one of the sources calling out the Trump Slump. In fact Travel Weekly fleshed out their argument in their own article here:
http://www.travelweekly.com/North-Ameri ... avel-to-US


They're argument is that the number of internet flight searches is down. Wow.

A simple graph showing the value of the US Dollar vs. the Euro and other foreign currencies will clearly correlate to increases and decreases in travel to the US. All the articles that ignore the effect of currency fluctuation and grasp at straws to make their political point are laughable.


On the flipside, airfares are down and supply (new routes etc.) is up, which would normally suggest an increase in travel, not a decline. If prices are lower and interest is still down, there must be some other factor.
 
RemoFlyer
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:02 pm

msycajun wrote:
https://qz.com/904883/the-effect-trump-is-having-on-international-tourism-and-air-travel/
And for those of you convinced the stock market represents economic growth, you may want to check the last times it set records - 2007, 2000, 1929, to name a few. You might notice a pattern...


I think you're being a little too generous in your assumption about their intelligence levels!
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:08 pm

Probably not true. I've been doing completely full flights for the past month.

Another pipe dream from a nobody site trying to downplay and delegitimatize the presidency of Trump. No one in the media can be taken seriously. The political bias and demonization is reaching a critical mass.
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WIederling
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:15 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Look at your 401 k. We're in the money! Big time!

Trump slump my behind.

You may not like him, but the economy is doing great right now.


you seem to be at a step or two below the gormless Quarterly Worshipers.
( Trump is 5 weeks in office. Everything looked rather well after 5 weeks of Bush43.
He hadn't even choked on his pretzel yet. the Tower still standing....)
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HeeseokKoo
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:21 pm

It's so fun to watch TV news channels than ever before whichever side you are. And people spend more and more time on the fake or biased or out-of-context clickbait news on the internet. Less time to travel or go out and have other funs.
 
ZuluTime
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:22 pm

I may be in a minority of one here, but as a UK resident who has travelled to the US very extensively in recent years, I will do everything I can to avoid the USA for as long as Trump is President. If I have a work requirement that takes me there, I'll reluctantly have to go, but I will do all that I can to ensure meetings are in non-US venues. On that basis, it's not "fake news" because at least one overseas individual has clearly stated an intention not to travel to the USA. Whether there are thousands or millions of others like me, I cannot say - but I can express my own intentions.
 
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knope2001
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:24 pm

Brett Snyder (Cranky Flyer) posted about this around 10 days back, and he did cite some stats

http://crankyflier.com/2017/02/14/inter ... s-concern/

According to a study of travel agent booking data from ForwardKeys, bookings for travel to the US dropped sharply in the 8 days following the signing of the executive order.

Naturally, travel from those 7 countries tanked with new bookings down 80 percent. But more concerning is the impact that this has had on travelers from countries where there weren’t any changes to policy.

Globally (excluding China due to year-over-year issues with holiday timings) in the 8 days since the ban first went into place, inbound bookings to the US dropped 6.5 percent compared to the same period a year prior. Outside of the Middle East, hardest hit were bookings from Asia/Pacific ex-China (down 14 percent), Western Europe (down 13.6 percent), and Northern Europe (down 6.6 percent.)


---

Another way to look at this is based on forward bookings. Right before the ban went into effect, global bookings to the US were up 3.4 percent for the following three months compared to the year before. Just 8 days later, bookings were up only 2.3 percent for the following three months.



---

It's true that people generally have short memories, and perhaps this represents an initial spike which has since flattened out. If the (widely-expected) replacement executive order is truly clear and cleanly executed perhaps there won't be much of a ripple. But while it's true that facts can be fleeting and attention spans short, people remember how they were made to feel. There's a whole lot of fear out there among people from Morocco to Bangladesh and from Mexico southward. The detention of valid green-card holders freaked out a whole lot of people who no longer believe following the rules ensures consistent and fair treatment. And the perception of significantly-enhanced ICE raids makes people from Mexico and south feel under fire.

Unfortunately for air travel demand it doesn't matter a bit if the fears are completely unfounded.. Even if the green-card detentions were truly an isolated blip and people who play by the rules have zero to fear, even if the level of actual ICE enforcement is no different than 6 months ago under Obama, the fear is deep. Undoubtedly there are plenty of false rumors, lies and half-truths stoking the fire -- there always are. But it doesn't matter much. It also doesn't help that there aren't many voices from the top levels of power trying to calm and reassure.

I don't expect much negative impact to international travel in the business segment nor among the average middle/upper class Anglo or Asian leisure segment. Sure, maybe some anecdotal stories of European liberals who choose to not patronize the US are out there, but maybe if the economy and market stay up it will offset or even grow overall. And I would guess that undocumented people in the US weren't hopping flights already. But there are a whole lot of people legally here...even US citizens...who feel better-safe-than-sorry when it comes to international travel. I work with people from India...non-Muslims from a country we're friendly with...afraid to fly home to visit family because they fear the rules will change before they come back to the US. They've built a life here and aren't willing to take the risk right now. Separately I know a US-born adult citizens who has an undocumented father who has been here decades, and she's afraid that if there's any customs issue when she returns from visiting family in Mexico that the extra scrutiny could lead them to find and export her father. There are people out there who shouldn't (and may in fact not) have anything to fear who are thinking better safe than sorry. Why spend the money to have your mother visit from Islamabad when she may be hassled, detained and sent right back home at JFK?

The fear will lessen over time if there aren't repeated spikes of trouble, but fear is perhaps the slowest to fade memory, and discretionary travel is easy to put off if you're afraid life as you know it could be taken away from you by leaving the country.

It will be interesting to see if there is enough lasting effect to be mentioned in airline statements or investor calls, or eventually in public stats which have long reporting lags. Personally I don't think it can be overlooked and there's some significant damage potential.
 
IPFreely
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:28 pm

msycajun wrote:
On the flipside, airfares are down and supply (new routes etc.) is up, which would normally suggest an increase in travel, not a decline. If prices are lower and interest is still down, there must be some other factor.


The cost of a trip from Europe (or other countries) to the US is more than just the airfare. A lot more. Once travelers get here their euros buy less then almost ever before in lodging, food, entertainment, domestic transportation, and anything else.
 
Eyad89
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:38 pm

ZuluTime wrote:
I may be in a minority of one here, but as a UK resident who has travelled to the US very extensively in recent years, I will do everything I can to avoid the USA for as long as Trump is President. If I have a work requirement that takes me there, I'll reluctantly have to go, but I will do all that I can to ensure meetings are in non-US venues. On that basis, it's not "fake news" because at least one overseas individual has clearly stated an intention not to travel to the USA. Whether there are thousands or millions of others like me, I cannot say - but I can express my own intentions.



You are not alone, I will try to buy the least possible quantity of American products until Trump leaves office. I am intending to buy a car next month, and because of Trump I crossed Cadilac off my list, even though I really like the CTS.

It is not what you buy, it is why you buy them. My values cannot get along with Trump.
Last edited by Eyad89 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:38 pm

I'm always surprised how people denounce as "fake news" anything that might question/challenge what they believe already. This is another part of the problem as far as I'm concerned. Who wants to visit a country where everybody is calling each other liers publicly and privately from the president on down all over the place. No thanks.
 
StTim
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:44 pm

I am not an expert in any way but I have made many visits to the US - mostly for work.

Currently the US is on my personal no fly list. I am sure they are not quaking in their boots at just me doing this but I suspect I am just one of many.

There was the schoolteacher (happened to be Muslim) who was part of a school trip from uk. Think they were going via Iceland. Well he was ejected fro the Iceland to US flight with no reason given. How many school trips will give the US a wide berth now?
 
BravoOne
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:49 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
ZuluTime wrote:
I may be in a minority of one here, but as a UK resident who has travelled to the US very extensively in recent years, I will do everything I can to avoid the USA for as long as Trump is President. If I have a work requirement that takes me there, I'll reluctantly have to go, but I will do all that I can to ensure meetings are in non-US venues. On that basis, it's not "fake news" because at least one overseas individual has clearly stated an intention not to travel to the USA. Whether there are thousands or millions of others like me, I cannot say - but I can express my own intentions.



You are not alone, I will try to buy the least possible quantity of American products until Trump leaves office. I am intending to buy a car next month, and because of Trump I crossed Cadilac off my list, even though I really like the CTS.

It is not what you buy, it is why you buy them. My values cannot get along with Trump.



Funny as that's just the way I feel about most of Europe these days. I have $10,000 to spend on a vacation this year and I'm thinking about Australia. Even thinking about trying out EK to get there but that might change before long. Its perfectly fine by me if the Europeans stay home as that just means fewer people at the Grand Canyon, Yellowstone and the National parks in southern Utah. A breath of fresh air for sure. When the Europeans start paying there way in this world I might change mind. In the meantime buy all the Airbus aircraft you want.

PS, I don't like Trump either but there simply was no viable choice.
 
superjeff
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:57 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
ZuluTime wrote:
I may be in a minority of one here, but as a UK resident who has travelled to the US very extensively in recent years, I will do everything I can to avoid the USA for as long as Trump is President. If I have a work requirement that takes me there, I'll reluctantly have to go, but I will do all that I can to ensure meetings are in non-US venues. On that basis, it's not "fake news" because at least one overseas individual has clearly stated an intention not to travel to the USA. Whether there are thousands or millions of others like me, I cannot say - but I can express my own intentions.



You are not alone, I will try to buy the least possible quantity of American products until Trump leaves office. I am intending to buy a car next month, and because of Trump I crossed Cadilac off my list, even though I really like the CTS.

It is not what you buy, it is why you buy them. My values cannot get along with Trump.


You do, of course, understand that there is no longer such a thing as an all American car. Cars these days are multi-national. Toyotas are made in the U.S. and UK, among other countries, as are Hondas, BMW's, some Mercedes, Kias, Hyundai's, Volkswagens, etc.

If your values don't match Trump's, that is your issue and fine. But just as many people didn't like her opponent.

Buy your Mercedes, Acura's, or whatever instead of a Cadillac. There's a good chance they're American made too, and there's an equal chance that your Lincoln or Ford is made in Mexico, and your Buick Enclave is made in China, your Buick Cascada in Germany, etc. Jeep's Renegade comes from Italy. If you really think you're hurting Trump by not buying GM, you've got bigger problems.
 
StTim
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:58 pm

Wow BravoOne - you do not make a case for anyone busting the US
 
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KTPAFlyer
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:14 pm

StTim wrote:
I am not an expert in any way but I have made many visits to the US - mostly for work.

Currently the US is on my personal no fly list. I am sure they are not quaking in their boots at just me doing this but I suspect I am just one of many.

There was the schoolteacher (happened to be Muslim) who was part of a school trip from uk. Think they were going via Iceland. Well he was ejected fro the Iceland to US flight with no reason given. How many school trips will give the US a wide berth now?


ZuluTime wrote:
I may be in a minority of one here, but as a UK resident who has travelled to the US very extensively in recent years, I will do everything I can to avoid the USA for as long as Trump is President. If I have a work requirement that takes me there, I'll reluctantly have to go, but I will do all that I can to ensure meetings are in non-US venues. On that basis, it's not "fake news" because at least one overseas individual has clearly stated an intention not to travel to the USA. Whether there are thousands or millions of others like me, I cannot say - but I can express my own intentions.


You can add me to the growing list of people who won't be traveling internationally.

Fake or not, the line is getting very blurred and it's increasingly hard to tell what is official policy and what is fear. Whatever the case, there are a lot of people out there- myself included- that are not willing to take that risk. As someone mentioned above, this is the low season; the real drop is going to come in the summer season.
 
BravoOne
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:18 pm

StTim wrote:
Wow BravoOne - you do not make a case for anyone busting the US



Busting the US??? Please explain? Did you mean visiting?
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:18 pm

It's too early to draw any meaningful conclusion.

Stocks are at record highs but most of it is wishful thinking as the new administration still has to provide any meaningful information about its economic policies (i.e. policy details longer than 140 characters).
 
mham001
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:27 pm

Just means fewer people flying in, overstaying their visas and becoming illegals.

The dollar is quite strong now and this cannot be overlooked in any analysis.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:48 pm

KrustyTheKlown wrote:
It's too early to draw any meaningful conclusion.

Stocks are at record highs but most of it is wishful thinking as the new administration still has to provide any meaningful information about its economic policies (i.e. policy details longer than 140 characters).

How accurate!

Any country lead by a leader who prefers to "communicate" directly and re-actively via social media (almost certainly without prior legal review and guidance) and spends inordinate amounts of time raging at the press, can be deemed to be unreliable, and prone to unexpected decisions, and largely acting on his own! Time, I hope, will wear down on him, and the "White House Staff" and "Administration" gently take control of his vitriolic temperament! I wish!

It is evident that he is a very divisive person, and that explains why some will choose to give the USA a miss while he is in charge, while others might find him attractive and decide to travel there and offer their support! I live in Europe and have visited the USA for business and pleasure in times back. But USA attitude to, and resulting experiences of, gun laws mean that USA is on my no-go list since many years! Adding Trump cant make that vote count again!

Until recently, Brussels was the home to the Jet Airways scissor hub, with daily flights between India and North America. Every morning, during the 2 - 3 hours while the flights came and went, the airport was packed full of mainly transit pax. This traffic moved recently to AMS. I wonder how the recent traffic figures are for this!
 
StTim
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:55 pm

BravoOne wrote:
StTim wrote:
Wow BravoOne - you do not make a case for anyone busting the US



Busting the US??? Please explain? Did you mean visiting?


Yes I did. Damn autocorrect!
 
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OA940
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:55 pm

Just put a buffalo for president and it will do better than either of the two that ended up as the final candidates.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
jupiter2
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:41 pm

My daughters dance school were scheduled to do a tour of the U.S. next year, it's been cancelled because many of the parents were just too afraid of what sort of restrictions would be in place for foreign visitors. Now we are talking about a group of 60-70 people from Australia, many of whom did a similar trip 2 years ago and loved it. It's a shame, as on a whole Australians love the U.S. but a lot of people I know just sit back and look at what's going on and think "not for me, not until someone sane is seemingly running the show".

I don't think many Americans realise what a fool Trump makes himself look like in the international community, nor may they care, but the reality is, he scares a lot of people with his antics and knee jerk, simplistic reactions to complex problems. I for one would not be in the slightest bit surprised that tourism to the U.S takes a big hit for foreign visitors, but who knows, maybe all the Americans too scared to leave their own country will holiday domestically and make up for the shortfall.
 
NYC2SFO
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:12 pm

There most definitely a huge slump in forward bookings to the US, atleast from Europe. Anyone in EMEA who has access to MIDT, look at forward booking EUR/USA. Look at YOY results. Numbers are down when you compare city pairs YOY. Coupled with a declining FX rate for the EURO/USD,

Most airlines that fly to/from the US, are focusing on POS/POO sales from the US to other markets, as Americans will still travel to Europe is a deal this year, with the FX and rise of LCC's across the Atlantic.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:54 pm

mham001 wrote:
Just means fewer people flying in, overstaying their visas and becoming illegals.

The dollar is quite strong now and this cannot be overlooked in any analysis.

Let's give credit where credit is due: the dollar experienced its surge WAY before Trump became president.
jfklganyc wrote:
Look at your 401 k. We're in the money! Big time!

Trump slump my behind.

You may not like him, but the economy is doing great right now.

That is probably the only thing he has going for him in my opinion. My 401k and my Roth IRA are very healthy.

Moose135 wrote:
These are great times in the stock market - largest percentage increase following a presidential election since 1928...
And let's not forget what happened to the stock market soon after...
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
WIederling
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:58 pm

Lots of medical tourists have relocated to Germany and other places.
Foreign students are decreasing. But if you look it up scientific publications in the US
invariably shew aliens as major contributors.
With all the big achievements claimed by the US (invariable provided by immigrants or first generation offspring) ...
Murphy is an optimist
 
Wacker1000
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:36 pm

Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:11 pm

jupiter2 wrote:
I don't think many Americans realise what a fool Trump makes himself look like in the international community, nor may they care, but the reality is, he scares a lot of people with his antics and knee jerk, simplistic reactions to complex problems. I for one would not be in the slightest bit surprised that tourism to the U.S takes a big hit for foreign visitors, but who knows, maybe all the Americans too scared to leave their own country will holiday domestically and make up for the shortfall.


I assume you're an Australian citizen holding an Australian passport - so you cancel your trip based solely on passport holders from seven countries with dysfunctional governments not being allowed in the US for 90 days and Trump is the fool?
 
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Aesma
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:50 pm

The Euro has fallen against the Dollar, thanks to massive QE from the BCE, about 2 years ago. There is nothing new in that respect, the fluctuation since Trump's election is minimal.

I also don't see the link between the DOW and the travel industry.

Markets are high because Trump has promised deregulation, meaning more profits, more risk, and undoubtedly a greater chance for a bust quite soon. Travel to the US has not much to do with that. Long term though, it might crash the global economy again, and that of course would affect travel a lot.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Wacker1000
Posts: 178
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:40 pm

WIederling wrote:
IMU he bases it on one single governement showing massive signs of mental disorder.


By "mental disorder" are you referring to placing blame on inanimate objects or doing nothing out of concern of offending someone somewhere?


TransGlobalGold wrote:
Five weeks in office, no way this can be attributed to him. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to lay off the kool aid for a while and see what this country will be like in a year from now.


You clearly were not paying attention to the stock market the days after he took office. I highly doubt it was pure coincidence.
 
jupiter2
Posts: 1661
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:26 am

Wacker1000 wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
I don't think many Americans realise what a fool Trump makes himself look like in the international community, nor may they care, but the reality is, he scares a lot of people with his antics and knee jerk, simplistic reactions to complex problems. I for one would not be in the slightest bit surprised that tourism to the U.S takes a big hit for foreign visitors, but who knows, maybe all the Americans too scared to leave their own country will holiday domestically and make up for the shortfall.


I assume you're an Australian citizen holding an Australian passport - so you cancel your trip based solely on passport holders from seven countries with dysfunctional governments not being allowed in the US for 90 days and Trump is the fool?


The threat of being denied entry for foreigners, of any background is all too true unfortunately. Read today of a 70 year old Australian children's book author being questioned for 2 hours at LAX by authorities, she has visited the U.S. 116 times. She complained to the Australian Embassy in the U.S and the U.S Embassy in Australia, she got an official apology from the Embassy, but the damage is done and she won't be going back. Or Muhammad Ali's son in Fort Lauderdale being question for 2 hours because he was muslim and they wanted to know where he got his name from !! Come on, it's becoming a joke.......but then again it's probably just fake news.
 
Skywatcher
Posts: 795
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 11:19 am

Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:47 am

We have stories here in Montreal of muslim Canadian citizens now being routinely denied entry to the U.S. and hundreds of refugees leaving the U.S. and walking over our land crossings every month since november. Should we build a wall? Of course any nation has the right to decide who to welcome and who not to but my point is that there is a definite feeling by many people that the U.S. has become a place to avoid. Whether you feel that it is made up or not is your choice. I suspect that the initial point of this thread is true however-foreigners will be avoiding the U.S. in droves compared to the recent past. Will Americans travelling overseas offset the trend? Who knows but the percentage of the U.S. population that has a passport is shockingly low. As a civil aviation enthusiast all this bodes ill for the industry in my opinion.
 
jupiter2
Posts: 1661
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2001 11:30 am

Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:12 am

Skywatcher wrote:
We have stories here in Montreal of muslim Canadian citizens now being routinely denied entry to the U.S. and hundreds of refugees leaving the U.S. and walking over our land crossings every month since november. Should we build a wall? Of course any nation has the right to decide who to welcome and who not to but my point is that there is a definite feeling by many people that the U.S. has become a place to avoid. Whether you feel that it is made up or not is your choice. I suspect that the initial point of this thread is true however-foreigners will be avoiding the U.S. in droves compared to the recent past. Will Americans travelling overseas offset the trend? Who knows but the percentage of the U.S. population that has a passport is shockingly low. As a civil aviation enthusiast all this bodes ill for the industry in my opinion.


Agree completely with what you have said, especially the last sentence. This thing could potentially get out of hand and international travel, considered relatively easy and safe now to most parts of the world, could end up being a bureaucratic nightmare, not worth the hassle. I see travel demand falling, particularly to the U.S, which in turn will lead to down turns across the globe.
 
dfwjim1
Posts: 2202
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:45 am

Skywatcher wrote:
I have been travelling to the states 3 or 4 times a year for decades. I don't mean to offend anybody and I'm sure most Americans don't care or might even figure "good riddance" but I'll be visiting the Caribbean and Europe for the foreseeable future instead. Lots to experience there for sure. Many Canadians feel a little more unwelcome in the states these days.


Just curious as to why Canadians would feel less welcome in the United States than in previous years?
 
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seb146
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Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:53 am

I grew up in ultra-conservative eastern Oregon. My family still lives there. I currently live in California. Usually I am cautious about going to visit my family but, now, I am really dreading it for my personal safety. I believe many people making summer plans from Europe are feeling the same. Dark skinned people who speak English with an accent probably will not feel comfortable or welcome in a vast swath of the United States. Just my two cents...
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:43 pm

Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:09 am

IPFreely wrote:
msycajun wrote:
On the flipside, airfares are down and supply (new routes etc.) is up, which would normally suggest an increase in travel, not a decline. If prices are lower and interest is still down, there must be some other factor.


The cost of a trip from Europe (or other countries) to the US is more than just the airfare. A lot more. Once travelers get here their euros buy less then almost ever before in lodging, food, entertainment, domestic transportation, and anything else.


The exchange rate between the Euro & the Dollar fluctuated little in late 2016-2017, so the increase in cost due to the exchange rate I'd say is negligible.
I FLY KLM+ALASKA+QATAR+MALAYSIA+AIRASIA+MALINDO
 
crownvic
Posts: 2445
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:16 pm

Re: 'Trump slump' hitting air travel

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:11 am

Skywatcher wrote:
I have been travelling to the states 3 or 4 times a year for decades. I don't mean to offend anybody and I'm sure most Americans don't care or might even figure "good riddance" but I'll be visiting the Caribbean and Europe for the foreseeable future instead. Lots to experience there for sure. Many Canadians feel a little more unwelcome in the states these days.



Good riddance...If you are from the country just north of the USA learn how to tip and dont be so cheap. You will fit right in with the same folks who you are so dying to visit across the Atlantic, they're just as tight too.

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