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scbriml
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UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:43 am

So it begins...

The UK has now officially submitted its written notification of withdrawal from the EU. A sad day for those of us that voted remain, but now let's get on with it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39424391


Some of the conspiracy theory nutters are going to have a hard time explaining this! :sarcastic:
 
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Francoflier
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:17 pm

What was the conspiracy theory?
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:17 pm

Making Great Britain GREAT again.

Wonder what Scotland and Northern Ireland will do. The math changed since the 2014 independence referendum.
 
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scbriml
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:45 pm

Francoflier wrote:
What was the conspiracy theory?


Several regular posters believed Article 50 would never be invoked and would use any incident to push their agenda - e.g. last week's terrorist attack was supposed to be an excuse for the Government to delay/postpone/cancel its invocation. I used the word "nutters" for good reasons. :wink2:

einsteinboricua wrote:
Wonder what Scotland and Northern Ireland will do.


NI - I'm really not sure. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Scotland - well the SNP have already played their obvious card and have been told in no uncertain terms that there will not be another independence referendum before Brexit is complete (perfectly reasonable) and possibly never (again, not that unreasonable given the previous vote was "a once in a lifetime opportunity"). Nicola Sturgeon can whine all she wants, but many feel she's deliberately engineered a conflict position with the view to 'forcing' another independence vote. It's quite transparent, IMHO.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:51 pm

So it begins, within two years it will be clear what the Brexit will be like. A hard Brexit seems off the table right now, because it will hurt Britain to much.

scbriml wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Wonder what Scotland and Northern Ireland will do.


NI - I'm really not sure. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Scotland - well the SNP have already played their obvious card and have been told in no uncertain terms that there will not be another independence referendum before Brexit is complete (perfectly reasonable) and possibly never (again, not that unreasonable given the previous vote was "a once in a lifetime opportunity"). Nicola Sturgeon can whine all she wants, but many feel she's deliberately engineered a conflict position with the view to 'forcing' another independence vote. It's quite transparent, IMHO.


So the Scottish parlement already voted for another referendum, but it is up to London to grand them this.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... a-sturgeon
 
bgm
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:01 pm

scbriml wrote:
Scotland - well the SNP have already played their obvious card and have been told in no uncertain terms that there will not be another independence referendum before Brexit is complete (perfectly reasonable)


With all due respect, how is that 'perfectly reasonable'? In the last referendum, people voted to remain part of the UK, and the EU. The circumstances have changed, and given that Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain a part of the EU, putting the independence option back on the table is, indeed, 'perfectly reasonable'. All the arguments about the UK leaving the EU equally apply to Scotland leaving the UK. You can't have it both ways...
 
JJJ
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:08 pm

bgm wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Scotland - well the SNP have already played their obvious card and have been told in no uncertain terms that there will not be another independence referendum before Brexit is complete (perfectly reasonable)


With all due respect, how is that 'perfectly reasonable'? In the last referendum, people voted to remain part of the UK, and the EU. The circumstances have changed, and given that Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain a part of the EU, putting the independence option back on the table is, indeed, 'perfectly reasonable'. All the arguments about the UK leaving the EU equally apply to Scotland leaving the UK. You can't have it both ways...


Precisely. The remain (in the UK) campaign banked heavily in that leaving the UK would mean leaving the EU with all the doom and gloom that was repeated in the Remain (in the EU) campaign later. Yet Brexit won.

I can perfectly understand Scots feeling scammed by the whole thing.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:48 pm

bgm wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Scotland - well the SNP have already played their obvious card and have been told in no uncertain terms that there will not be another independence referendum before Brexit is complete (perfectly reasonable)


With all due respect, how is that 'perfectly reasonable'? In the last referendum, people voted to remain part of the UK, and the EU. The circumstances have changed, and given that Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain a part of the EU, putting the independence option back on the table is, indeed, 'perfectly reasonable'. All the arguments about the UK leaving the EU equally apply to Scotland leaving the UK. You can't have it both ways...


So on that basis we should have a Scottish referendum every time someone south of the border sneezes, or a law is passed which the SNP don't like?

The SNP want independence, thats the basis of their party and the fundamental approach they take - of course they want another referendum, they would have been pushing for another referendum around about now even if we had voted Remain, that much is pretty fscking obvious from the rhetoric that came out the other side of the last Scottish Independence referendum in 2014.

The 2014 referendum was not held on the basis of "you can have another one if anything changes". That was a 'promise' made by the SNP, a promise they had no authority to make.

I also *love* the fact that Sturgeon and the SNP push heavily the fact that the UK Parliament is "ignoring" the Scottish voice in the EU referendum result, and uses that "ignoring" in order to push the case for another independence vote...

Why do I love that?

Because by pushing that stance as heavily as she does, Sturgeon is quite plainly taking a position where she deems a minority voice to be something that should get its own way, regardless.

Which means that hypocrisy will rule if and when Sturgeon gets her way in an independence vote - she will gleefully and wilfully ignore the minority that voted to stay with the UK, she won't see any irony in ignoring their voice at all.

At this point, I'm willing to campaign for the SNP and Sturgeon in any independence referendum capacity, simply because I've had enough of her vitriol and hatred, get rid of her and her party and let Scotland stand alone, with zero help from the UK. She will quickly come to realise just how much the Barnett Formula really matters to the Scottish people...
 
Olddog
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:53 pm

Anyway, Tusk said he will have a draft answer by Friday. Should be interesting to read.

I still bet for a hard brexit as the only focus seems to be immigration so no freedom of movement.
 
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vfw614
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:00 pm

Unless stipulated otherwise in a constitution, you can have as many referendums as you like and not just one.

It is a political question/decision and also a matter of costs, of course. I suppose the Scots could. in case that May does not give in, even organise a stealth referendum by doing a "consultation" of the public or something along those lines which could put the UK government in a very tricky position.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:12 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Unless stipulated otherwise in a constitution, you can have as many referendums as you like and not just one.


The SNP *loves* that way of thinking, because if it came down to them they would run referendum after referendum on the topic until they got the answer they were seeking, and then it would stop.

Which is why the Scottish Parliament does not have the authority to call such referendums.

It is a political question/decision and also a matter of costs, of course. I suppose the Scots could. in case that May does not give in, even organise a stealth referendum by doing a "consultation" of the public or something along those lines which could put the UK government in a very tricky position.


The SNP could also toss a coin and it would have as much legality...

Simply put, the Scottish government do not have the authority to put this question to the Scottish public in any legal sense - they can hold informal polls all they like, but only the Electoral Commission has the authority to run elections and referendums in the UK.
 
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Dano1977
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:15 pm

Olddog wrote:
Anyway, Tusk said he will have a draft answer by Friday. Should be interesting to read.

I still bet for a hard brexit as the only focus seems to be immigration so no freedom of movement.



The PM's letter was good. crafted well, mentioned special relationships a few times.

Then we look at Article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty.

1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.


So we will see if the EU promotes it own treaties or not.
 
bgm
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:15 pm

moo wrote:
So on that basis we should have a Scottish referendum every time someone south of the border sneezes, or a law is passed which the SNP don't like?


I'd hardly call leaving the EU a "sneeze".

moo wrote:
The 2014 referendum was not held on the basis of "you can have another one if anything changes".


Neither was it held with a rule that another one must never be held again. The circumstances have changed. If England wants to f*ck itself economically by leaving the EU, then good on them. Why should the Scots be dragged down the crapper too? Because they are part of the UK? Hence the proposed 2nd referendum.

moo wrote:
I also *love* the fact that Sturgeon and the SNP push heavily the fact that the UK Parliament is "ignoring" the Scottish voice in the EU referendum result, and uses that "ignoring" in order to push the case for another independence vote...

Why do I love that?

Because by pushing that stance as heavily as she does, Sturgeon is quite plainly taking a position where she deems a minority voice to be something that should get its own way, regardless.

Which means that hypocrisy will rule if and when Sturgeon gets her way in an independence vote - she will gleefully and wilfully ignore the minority that voted to stay with the UK, she won't see any irony in ignoring their voice at all.


Her reasoning (rightly or wrongly) is that Scotland, the country of which she is First Minister, voted overwhelmingly to remain in the UK. You are looking at total votes across the UK, she is looking at votes by the country she governs.

moo wrote:
At this point, I'm willing to campaign for the SNP and Sturgeon in any independence referendum capacity, simply because I've had enough of her vitriol and hatred, get rid of her and her party and let Scotland stand alone, with zero help from the UK. She will quickly come to realise just how much the Barnett Formula really matters to the Scottish people...


Well, it seems Westminster isn't even allowing that to happen.

By the triggering of Article 50, this will set off a chain of events. By voting to leave the EU, this gives Scotland another mandate to gain independence. Northern Ireland may vote to leave and rejoin the Republic, who knows. Wales? Probably not. All this happening as the UK loses any trade negotiation leverage with its largest trading partner. The cost of living will rise, businesses will leave the UK, and most likely there will be a recession.

Brexitastic!
 
Olddog
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:28 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
The PM's letter was good. crafted well, mentioned special relationships a few times.

Then we look at Article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty.

1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.


So we will see if the EU promotes it own treaties or not.


The EU have special relations with Switzerland and Norway you know. It is prolly the best you can get.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:39 pm

bgm wrote:
moo wrote:
So on that basis we should have a Scottish referendum every time someone south of the border sneezes, or a law is passed which the SNP don't like?


I'd hardly call leaving the EU a "sneeze".


And yet there was no stipulation on how "significant" the event needed to be...

As I said, the SNP want independence, and they will hold as many referendums as it takes for them to get the result they want. Circumstances changing or not. If the UK had voted to remain within the EU as a whole, the SNP would still be pushing for another Scottish referendum around now anyway.

moo wrote:
The 2014 referendum was not held on the basis of "you can have another one if anything changes".


Neither was it held with a rule that another one must never be held again. The circumstances have changed. If England wants to f*ck itself economically by leaving the EU, then good on them. Why should the Scots be dragged down the crapper too? Because they are part of the UK? Hence the proposed 2nd referendum.


Personally, I couldn't give a toss that the circumstances have changed - circumstances change all the time, it doesn't mean referendums should be held at the drop of a hat.

And you ignore the fact that the SNP had no authority to say that there would be another referendum under any circumstances whatsoever, changed or not.

moo wrote:
I also *love* the fact that Sturgeon and the SNP push heavily the fact that the UK Parliament is "ignoring" the Scottish voice in the EU referendum result, and uses that "ignoring" in order to push the case for another independence vote...

Why do I love that?

Because by pushing that stance as heavily as she does, Sturgeon is quite plainly taking a position where she deems a minority voice to be something that should get its own way, regardless.

Which means that hypocrisy will rule if and when Sturgeon gets her way in an independence vote - she will gleefully and wilfully ignore the minority that voted to stay with the UK, she won't see any irony in ignoring their voice at all.


Her reasoning (rightly or wrongly) is that Scotland, the country of which she is First Minister, voted overwhelmingly to remain in the UK. You are looking at total votes across the UK, she is looking at votes by the country she governs.


Oh, right, its *perfectly* fine for Nicola Sturgeon to take *her* constituency as a complete and whole, ignoring what individual portions of it may have voted one way or another in any given referendum, because that achieves her goals...

Or will she allow portions of Scotland that vote against independence to remain with the UK rather than drag them out of the UK..? Hmmm? Inquiring minds want to know...

Over a million Scottish voters voted Leave, and yet Sturgeon says that her country voted to remain. Shes *already* ignoring the people who don't support her goals, and thats hypocrisy...

moo wrote:
At this point, I'm willing to campaign for the SNP and Sturgeon in any independence referendum capacity, simply because I've had enough of her vitriol and hatred, get rid of her and her party and let Scotland stand alone, with zero help from the UK. She will quickly come to realise just how much the Barnett Formula really matters to the Scottish people...


Well, it seems Westminster isn't even allowing that to happen.

By the triggering of Article 50, this will set off a chain of events. By voting to leave the EU, this gives Scotland another mandate to gain independence. Northern Ireland may vote to leave and rejoin the Republic, who knows. Wales? Probably not. All this happening as the UK loses any trade negotiation leverage with its largest trading partner.

Brexitastic!


It doesnt give Scotland any mandate at all, thats just fantasy built off the back of the SNPs wishes.

... loses any trade negotiation leverage with its largest trading partner. The cost of living will rise, businesses will leave the UK, and most likely there will be a recession.


And which of those things will magically not happen to Scotland should Scotland leave the UK...?

We are Scotlands biggest market, Scottish banks will be forced to move south of the border, Scotland no longer has an oil and gas industry much to speak of, it won't have a currency it can control (even if it goes with the Euro, it won't get any say in monetary policy)...
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:49 pm

If there was no fear within the EU that other countries might want to leave, then the negotiations would likely be pretty reasonable, with both sides allowing the other's expats to stay where they are, a free trade agreement, etc. But the EU is afraid of others leaving, and will want to make an example of the UK. The EU will play hardball. The big question is whether the UK will cave in.

Rule number 1 in negotiating: Make sure the other side knows that you are willing to walk away from a bad deal. If Side A lets it be known that it it is desperate for a deal, Side B will play hardball, giving in few concessions and demanding large ones.

Rule number 2 : Don't let politicians make public concessions. The House of Lords vote a couple of weeks ago demanding that the UK allow EU nationals to remain in the UK was stunningly stupid. Of course it's a concession that the UK would eventually be willing to make - in return for a reciprocal concession from the EU that UK nationals can remain in the EU. But after the House of Lords made an ass of themselves and took ammunition away from the UK negotiating team, the UK might have to give up additional concessions in order to allow UK nationals to stay in the EU - EU access to UK fishing areas, for example.

Anyway, in my opinion, the EU will try very hard to make Brexit as difficult and costly as possible for the UK, just to discourage other countries from leaving. I'd say 75% chance that the deal negotiated by March 2019 will be a bad deal that the UK should walk away from.

Will that cost the UK something in terms of economic growth etc? Yes. But I think Brexit supporters always understood that risk. Brexit was never about increasing economic growth, it was about ensuring that British democracy, sovereignty and self-determination remain intact - and that is worth some economic hardship, IMHO. Good luck to the UK.
 
LAH1
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:52 pm

By voting to leave the EU, this gives Scotland another mandate to gain independence. Northern Ireland may vote to leave and rejoin the Republic, who knows. Wales? Probably not. All this happening as the UK loses any trade negotiation leverage with its largest trading partner. The cost of living will rise, businesses will leave the UK, and most likely there will be a recession.

Brexitastic![/quote]

No, it really doesn't. Scotland is part of the UK as much as London is, yet the votes to remain in London were as high if not higher than the percentage of Scots. I doubt very much if London will be annexed to the EU. There's no mandate created just because they don't like it.
N.I. - I think you might have a problem if you told them they were going south but that's to do with Brexit.
As for Wales, get real.
 
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mercure1
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:48 pm

Bravo UK.

Wish more nations would take brave moves to stand up against this transnational governance disaster clocked under European unity.
 
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vfw614
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:26 pm

And which of those things will magically not happen to Scotland should Scotland leave the UK...?

We are Scotlands biggest market, Scottish banks will be forced to move south of the border, Scotland no longer has an oil and gas industry much to speak of, it won't have a currency it can control (even if it goes with the Euro, it won't get any say in monetary policy)...


How about this: If Scotland finds a way to remain in the EU as an independent country, it will be THE gateway to the EU for finance, legal and other services industries. These will be moving north from England to Scotland quicker than you can imagine (at the moment, they are more focused on using Ireland as the new gateway).
 
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scbriml
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:32 pm

bgm wrote:
With all due respect, how is that 'perfectly reasonable'? In the last referendum, people voted to remain part of the UK, and the EU. The circumstances have changed, and given that Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain a part of the EU, putting the independence option back on the table is, indeed, 'perfectly reasonable'. All the arguments about the UK leaving the EU equally apply to Scotland leaving the UK. You can't have it both ways...


Of course it's perfectly reasonable. The EU referendum question was "Should the UK remain in the EU?". The UK, as a whole, voted to leave. Whether the SNP likes it or not, Scotland is part of the UK. The town where I live voted heavily in favour of staying in the EU. Should we also seek independence? How far do you want to take it?

It's even more reasonable that if another independence vote is to be granted, that it's after Brexit is complete so the people of Scotland can make an informed decision based on what they know life outside the EU will be like. It might also give the SNP time to actually be able to tell the people of Scotland what life in an independent Scotland will be like, because it's clear that it will not be anywhere near as rosy as the SNP would have people believe.

moo wrote:
If the UK had voted to remain within the EU as a whole, the SNP would still be pushing for another Scottish referendum around now anyway.


It's all that drives the SNP. If Scotland does end up as an independent country, the SNP will cease to have a purpose (just like UKIP now).

moo wrote:
Oh, right, its *perfectly* fine for Nicola Sturgeon to take *her* constituency as a complete and whole, ignoring what individual portions of it may have voted one way or another in any given referendum, because that achieves her goals...


Nicola Sturgeon has always had a somewhat hackneyed view of 'democracy'. If it gets her what she wants, it's fine. I was working in Scotland at the time of the independence vote and one of her favourite whines was that most Scots voted Labour or SNP yet often ended up with a Tory government in London and how "unfair" this was. Ignoring completely that everyone in the UK gets just one vote towards electing one MP to Parliament. I often get a government I didn't vote for. Tough shit, it's how our system works.

vfw614 wrote:
Unless stipulated otherwise in a constitution, you can have as many referendums as you like and not just one.


You can call for as many as you like, unless it's approved by Parliament, you'll be whistling until the cows come home.

LAH1 wrote:
Scotland is part of the UK as much as London is, yet the votes to remain in London were as high if not higher than the percentage of Scots. I doubt very much if London will be annexed to the EU. There's no mandate created just because they don't like it.


Don't tell Queen Nicola! :wink2:
 
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scbriml
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:43 pm

vfw614 wrote:
How about this: If Scotland finds a way to remain in the EU as an independent country, it will be THE gateway to the EU for finance, legal and other services industries. These will be moving north from England to Scotland quicker than you can imagine (at the moment, they are more focused on using Ireland as the new gateway).


Scotland isn't currently a member of the EU, so it can't "remain in the EU".

An independent Scotland would have to apply to join the EU. This is where the SNP has their collective heads in the sand (or up their arses depending on your viewpoint). It will be very difficult for an independent Scotland to join the EU as they will be nowhere near meeting the required financial criteria and it's very possible that Spain would (for its own internal reasons) veto their membership.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:47 pm

vfw614 wrote:
And which of those things will magically not happen to Scotland should Scotland leave the UK...?

We are Scotlands biggest market, Scottish banks will be forced to move south of the border, Scotland no longer has an oil and gas industry much to speak of, it won't have a currency it can control (even if it goes with the Euro, it won't get any say in monetary policy)...


How about this: If Scotland finds a way to remain in the EU as an independent country, it will be THE gateway to the EU for finance, legal and other services industries. These will be moving north from England to Scotland quicker than you can imagine (at the moment, they are more focused on using Ireland as the new gateway).


The problem is, under UK and EU laws that won't happen - financial companies have to be HQ'ed in the country where the bulk of their clients are, which is why various banks would have had to move from Scotland to the rUK on the event of a Scottish independence vote in 2014. Those same rules apply - there will be no influx of financial businesses moving north precisely because those rules are still in effect.

With regard to the commercial finance sector, those businesses, if they move, wont move to another EU country, they will move to the other major financial centres - New York, Tokyo etc. Some may move to Frankfurt or Paris, but by and large they are in the UK because of the UKs financial markets, not because of the EUs financial markets.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:49 pm

scbriml wrote:

Nicola Sturgeon has always had a somewhat hackneyed view of 'democracy'. If it gets her what she wants, it's fine. I was working in Scotland at the time of the independence vote and one of her favourite whines was that most Scots voted Labour or SNP yet often ended up with a Tory government in London and how "unfair" this was. Ignoring completely that everyone in the UK gets just one vote towards electing one MP to Parliament. I often get a government I didn't vote for. Tough shit, it's how our system works.


SNP MP's voted against the law which restricted Scottish MPs from voting on English and Welsh law....

Says it all really. They want a say in English and Welsh law, while complaining about Parliament having any say in Scottish law.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:12 pm

bgm wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Scotland - well the SNP have already played their obvious card and have been told in no uncertain terms that there will not be another independence referendum before Brexit is complete (perfectly reasonable)


With all due respect, how is that 'perfectly reasonable'? In the last referendum, people voted to remain part of the UK, and the EU. The circumstances have changed, and given that Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain a part of the EU, putting the independence option back on the table is, indeed, 'perfectly reasonable'. All the arguments about the UK leaving the EU equally apply to Scotland leaving the UK. You can't have it both ways...


Voter turnout wasn't super high in Scotland, over 1.3m people who could have voted stayed home. I know a number of Scots who voted to leave, just because this happened I don't believe it's enough to trigger another referendum.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:18 pm

Olddog wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
The PM's letter was good. crafted well, mentioned special relationships a few times.

Then we look at Article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty.

1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.


So we will see if the EU promotes it own treaties or not.


The EU have special relations with Switzerland and Norway you know. It is prolly the best you can get.


Norways special relationship sucks, it's all give and no take, we're basically a whore to europe, we bend over and don't get paid. The UK does not want a relationship like this at all, it would be a massive sellout.
 
LJ
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:31 pm

moo wrote:
With regard to the commercial finance sector, those businesses, if they move, wont move to another EU country, they will move to the other major financial centres - New York, Tokyo etc. Some may move to Frankfurt or Paris, but by and large they are in the UK because of the UKs financial markets, not because of the EUs financial markets.


Not entirely true. EU pension funds are restricted with whom they can do business as part (if not all) has to be invested via an investment firm in the EEA (and Switzerland). Moreover, the Euro trade (or at least part of it) will likely to move to an EEA country as for some parts of it one requires an EEA "passport". Hence why all investment bank already announced moving part of their business to an EU country. The EU pension funds are cash rich and one doesn't want to loose this business and thus moving to an EEA country (or Switzerland) is required to get their business. Furthermore, I doubt EBA will remain in the UK after completion of the Brexit. This will hurts the position of London is the leading financial hub.

BTW in the merger between the LSE and Deutsche Borse this played a role as well.
 
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Aesma
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
So it begins, within two years it will be clear what the Brexit will be like. A hard Brexit seems off the table right now, because it will hurt Britain to much.


I might get proven wrong but I believe the opposite of these two sentences. Two years from now things will be very muddy (or clear as in "no deal" ), and a hard Brexit is the most likely. The best deal will include tariffs for sure.
 
Klaus
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
Scotland isn't currently a member of the EU, so it can't "remain in the EU".


Scotland currently is in the EU and all scottish citizens are also EU citizens. That this is currently the case via the UK is not a factor regarding their relation to the EU.

An independent Scotland would have to apply to join the EU. This is where the SNP has their collective heads in the sand (or up their arses depending on your viewpoint). It will be very difficult for an independent Scotland to join the EU as they will be nowhere near meeting the required financial criteria and it's very possible that Spain would (for its own internal reasons) veto their membership.


Forget it. The position of the spanish government has been completely misrepresented by the Brexit campaigners.

Spain would have vetoed a scottish EU accession if Scotland would have left the UK while it was still in the EU.

The spanish government has clearly stated, however, that this does not apply to a Scotland having left the UK after Brexit. In that case an independent Scotland will likely be fast-tracked to EU membership. It will still take some years, but it won't be a problem.
 
Olddog
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:39 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Norways special relationship sucks, it's all give and no take, we're basically a whore to europe, we bend over and don't get paid. The UK does not want a relationship like this at all, it would be a massive sellout.


You may see it that way but Norway and Norwegians seems to not agree with you as nothing force them to stay that way if they thought the deal was so bad for them.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:41 pm

Aesma wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So it begins, within two years it will be clear what the Brexit will be like. A hard Brexit seems off the table right now, because it will hurt Britain to much.


I might get proven wrong but I believe the opposite of these two sentences. Two years from now things will be very muddy (or clear as in "no deal" ), and a hard Brexit is the most likely. The best deal will include tariffs for sure.


One way or the other, the relationship will be defined, in two years time it will automaticly tricker a hard Brexit if no compromise has been reached. And not a hard Brexit, but a trade deal is floating around west minister apparently. So we will see how it turns out.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:44 pm

LJ wrote:
moo wrote:
With regard to the commercial finance sector, those businesses, if they move, wont move to another EU country, they will move to the other major financial centres - New York, Tokyo etc. Some may move to Frankfurt or Paris, but by and large they are in the UK because of the UKs financial markets, not because of the EUs financial markets.


Not entirely true. EU pension funds are restricted with whom they can do business as part (if not all) has to be invested via an investment firm in the EEA (and Switzerland). Moreover, the Euro trade (or at least part of it) will likely to move to an EEA country as for some parts of it one requires an EEA "passport". Hence why all investment bank already announced moving part of their business to an EU country. The EU pension funds are cash rich and one doesn't want to loose this business and thus moving to an EEA country (or Switzerland) is required to get their business. Furthermore, I doubt EBA will remain in the UK after completion of the Brexit. This will hurts the position of London is the leading financial hub.

BTW in the merger between the LSE and Deutsche Borse this played a role as well.


The problem is, EU related financial stuff isn't the bulk of what the square miles business is made up from, the city isn't worried about being cut off from EU-restricted trade, its worried that the EU will try to punish non-EU-restricted trade, and that is trade that can go anywhere. Yes, companies are setting up EU shops for EU-restricted trade, but they aren't moving lock stock and barrel to those EU shops, in practically all cases the bulk of their portfolio trading will remain in the UK until after any agreement is made, and if the deal goes against the UK then that trade is what I refer to in my earlier post where I say it will go to New York, Tokyo etc.

Make no mistake at all, the EU won't end up with the bulk of Londons financial business, that business will go elsewhere - its currently done in London because its London, just the same as trading on the New York stock exchange and wheeling and dealing in Wall Street is prestigious.

The LSE already owns and operates several EU based exchanges and clearing houses, and that wont change after Brexit - unless the EU takes an ultra hard line and forces sales, that is. It wouldnt be illegal, under current EU law, for the LSE to continue to operate the Italian stock exchange for example.
 
Klaus
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:50 pm

Olddog wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
The EU have special relations with Switzerland and Norway you know. It is prolly the best you can get.


It is the closest you can come to EU membership without actually being a member, but it's not really ideal:

Both Switzerland and Norway are required to adhere strictly to all EU regulations, are required to make financial contributions and still have zero influence on anything.

Switzerland also has a heinously complex set of special treaties with the EU for this purpose which is extremely cumbersome to maintain, while Norway at least has a more streamlined version.

And May has already refused all the obligations which are inherently part of those deals.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:52 pm

Klaus wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Scotland isn't currently a member of the EU, so it can't "remain in the EU".


Scotland currently is in the EU and all scottish citizens are also EU citizens. That this is currently the case via the UK is not a factor regarding their relation to the EU.


Scotland is in the EU the same way that Paris is, and the way my house is - its part of a member country, its not a member itself. It has no individual rights to membership separate to those granted via the member country.

An independent Scotland would have to apply to join the EU. This is where the SNP has their collective heads in the sand (or up their arses depending on your viewpoint). It will be very difficult for an independent Scotland to join the EU as they will be nowhere near meeting the required financial criteria and it's very possible that Spain would (for its own internal reasons) veto their membership.


Forget it. The position of the spanish government has been completely misrepresented by the Brexit campaigners.

Spain would have vetoed a scottish EU accession if Scotland would have left the UK while it was still in the EU.

The spanish government has clearly stated, however, that this does not apply to a Scotland having left the UK after Brexit. In that case an independent Scotland will likely be fast-tracked to EU membership. It will still take some years, but it won't be a problem.


I think a citation is in order, because I can't find anything which shows the Spanish government have altered their stance on Scottish membership even with post Brexit independence, especially anything about fast tracking a post Brexit independent Scottish membership...
 
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OA260
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:17 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Making Great Britain GREAT again.

Wonder what Scotland and Northern Ireland will do. The math changed since the 2014 independence referendum.


Nothing in NI they dont even have a government now. Power could pass to London if they dont get their act together. A shame really as both sides in Stormont are failing their own people. They always seem to be stuck in a time warp when it come to politics. As for people talking about NI voting to join the Republic it wont happen. In fact they should have a border poll asap and I think people would be surprised at the result even with all this Brexit stuff going on. The Republic would need billions of EU funding to cope with the bills of absorbing NI. The people in NI also have got used to their free healthcare and heavily subsidised medications. Down in the Republic they pay minimum EUR50 per visit to see a Dr and a high proportion of their medications are also billed at retail prices although this is capped at EUR150 a month per family. Then you have the wages/cost of living all to take into account. It may be a romantic idea for some but when they get to the box and tick their choice I think for many it will be down to money not patriotism.

Scotland well if they want a vote let them but in the next vote there should be a clause that another one cant be triggered for 50 years. So this really is a vote of a generation. Personally I think they would not go for it. To join the EU they would need to give up the £STG which last time was highlighted by SNP as a carrot to those that certainly did not want to join the Euro. Oil prices have crashed since last time too so again I think many will be more cautious this time.

I did feel sorry for Donald Tusk he seemed genuine in his sadness about todays triggering .
 
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scbriml
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:34 pm

Klaus wrote:
Scotland currently is in the EU and all scottish citizens are also EU citizens. That this is currently the case via the UK is not a factor regarding their relation to the EU.


Semantics - Scotland does not appear on the list of EU members. Scotland is not a member of the EU.

There is no such thing as a "Scottish citizen", just as there no such thing as an "English citizen". We both have UK passports. UK passport holders are currently entitled to the rights of an EU citizen, but that will cease once the Brexit process is completed.

Klaus wrote:
In that case an independent Scotland will likely be fast-tracked to EU membership. It will still take some years, but it won't be a problem.


Fast-tracked? Scotland would fail to meet any of the financial criteria for joining the EU, so in what way could their application be "fast-tracked"? That would make a complete mockery of having the joining criteria in the first place!
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:37 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Norways special relationship sucks, it's all give and no take, we're basically a whore to europe, we bend over and don't get paid. The UK does not want a relationship like this at all, it would be a massive sellout.


The Swiss "special relationship" is much the same. The EU is the worst thing to ever happen to Switzerland, and they are regretting a lot of the bilateral treaties now as well.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:40 pm

How long would it take for the Article 50 process to be completed?

IMO, the UK should have at least waited to bring up the pound before officially waiving good bye. Rough waters ahead for you guys across the pond.
 
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OA260
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:54 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
How long would it take for the Article 50 process to be completed?

IMO, the UK should have at least waited to bring up the pound before officially waiving good bye. Rough waters ahead for you guys across the pond.


Why do you think they should have waited for the £ to go up ?
 
JJJ
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:04 pm

moo wrote:

I think a citation is in order, because I can't find anything which shows the Spanish government have altered their stance on Scottish membership even with post Brexit independence, especially anything about fast tracking a post Brexit independent Scottish membership...


How's your Spanish?

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/201 ... b459a.html

Spanish foreign minister just said he's not worried about Scotland eventually getting independent but warns that they'll have to apply and get in line.

At the same time he says Scotland is an internal UK affair and that he can't comment any further.

The veto thing was always connected with Scotland being independent while still in the EU as part of the UK (France said exactly the same, we won't negotiate with Scotland while it's still part of a sovereign EU country). Once that's no longer the case everyone is welcome to apply or re-apply at any time. The legal criteria that's usually the hardest part to implement is already there, other than fried Mars bars I don't see any gross human rights violations and if Romania or Bulgaria got in it's pretty safe to assume Scotland won't have too much trouble meeting economic criteria (even if they have to fudge the books like Greece did).
 
tommy1808
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:10 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Norways special relationship sucks, it's all give and no take, we're basically a whore to europe, we bend over and don't get paid. The UK does not want a relationship like this at all, it would be a massive sellout.


The Swiss "special relationship" is much the same. The EU is the worst thing to ever happen to Switzerland, and they are regretting a lot of the bilateral treaties now as well.


.... and because of all those massive EU armies at its borders, they don't terminate them, right?

Best regards
Thomas
 
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c933103
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:10 pm

From what I read I think the opinion within NI itself is pretty divided that nothing major would occure there in short term.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:12 pm

OA260 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
How long would it take for the Article 50 process to be completed?

IMO, the UK should have at least waited to bring up the pound before officially waiving good bye. Rough waters ahead for you guys across the pond.


Why do you think they should have waited for the £ to go up ?

From a superficial standpoint, it reduces oportunities for Brite to travel.

Big picture, value of domestic currency is a large sign of economic conditions. While the UK will definately attract foreign investors, money held by UK households and private savings won't be doing a lot of consumption as prices rise because of the weak pound. And the foreign investors will eventually come but not in the short run because of all the red tape that will be happening because of Brexit. It won't be a good time to go into the UK because of any stability the UK had before today is gone, pushing away investors purely on the basis that no one knows for sure how the process will pan out.
 
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moo
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:28 pm

JJJ wrote:
moo wrote:

I think a citation is in order, because I can't find anything which shows the Spanish government have altered their stance on Scottish membership even with post Brexit independence, especially anything about fast tracking a post Brexit independent Scottish membership...


How's your Spanish?

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/201 ... b459a.html

Spanish foreign minister just said he's not worried about Scotland eventually getting independent but warns that they'll have to apply and get in line.

At the same time he says Scotland is an internal UK affair and that he can't comment any further.

The veto thing was always connected with Scotland being independent while still in the EU as part of the UK (France said exactly the same, we won't negotiate with Scotland while it's still part of a sovereign EU country). Once that's no longer the case everyone is welcome to apply or re-apply at any time. The legal criteria that's usually the hardest part to implement is already there, other than fried Mars bars I don't see any gross human rights violations and if Romania or Bulgaria got in it's pretty safe to assume Scotland won't have too much trouble meeting economic criteria (even if they have to fudge the books like Greece did).


Thats similar to what Ive been finding, but it contradicts the "fast tracking" claim made...
 
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OA260
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:31 pm

c933103 wrote:
From what I read I think the opinion within NI itself is pretty divided that nothing major would occure there in short term.


Correct. Just some of the recent articles about United Ireland and Brexit :


Northern Ireland: A united Ireland? 'No chance'

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics ... -1.3007108

---


Shankill reaction: Bring on Brexit but not a united Ireland
‘Leave’ still dominant with immigration a key issue in a unionist heartland

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/ ... -1.3029533

---


A united Ireland would be worse off than the Republic
Questions over UK debt mean Irish reunification could come at a high economic price

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/a-uni ... -1.3010177

While Sinn Fein did very well in recent Stormont elections this is not to be confused with a vote for a United Ireland. They are two different things. We will see a more devolved NI within the UK outside of the EU before we are ever likely to see a United Ireland. Sinn Fein are great at local elections and issues but still would find it hard to get all their followers to jump with them into Irish unity.
 
LJ
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:33 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
The Swiss "special relationship" is much the same. The EU is the worst thing to ever happen to Switzerland, and they are regretting a lot of the bilateral treaties now as well.


I don't know to which Swiss you talk, but judging by the number of Swiss "looting" German (but also Italian and French) stores near the border (and collecting the VAT on their return) I doubt they hate the agreement Switzerland has with the EU.

Dutchy wrote:
One way or the other, the relationship will be defined, in two years time it will automaticly tricker a hard Brexit if no compromise has been reached. And not a hard Brexit, but a trade deal is floating around west minister apparently. So we will see how it turns out.

Not entirely correct, the 2-year period can be extended with another 2 years if both parties want this.
 
JJJ
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:49 pm

moo wrote:
JJJ wrote:
moo wrote:

I think a citation is in order, because I can't find anything which shows the Spanish government have altered their stance on Scottish membership even with post Brexit independence, especially anything about fast tracking a post Brexit independent Scottish membership...


How's your Spanish?

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/201 ... b459a.html

Spanish foreign minister just said he's not worried about Scotland eventually getting independent but warns that they'll have to apply and get in line.

At the same time he says Scotland is an internal UK affair and that he can't comment any further.

The veto thing was always connected with Scotland being independent while still in the EU as part of the UK (France said exactly the same, we won't negotiate with Scotland while it's still part of a sovereign EU country). Once that's no longer the case everyone is welcome to apply or re-apply at any time. The legal criteria that's usually the hardest part to implement is already there, other than fried Mars bars I don't see any gross human rights violations and if Romania or Bulgaria got in it's pretty safe to assume Scotland won't have too much trouble meeting economic criteria (even if they have to fudge the books like Greece did).


Thats similar to what Ive been finding, but it contradicts the "fast tracking" claim made...


There is no fast track as such (that would defeat the purpose of having entry rules), but Scotland has most of the legwork already done.

So as fast as it gets.
 
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vfw614
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:06 pm

I think it is beyond reasonable doubt that the EU will bend over backwards to accommodate a Scottish EU membership application should the opportunity ever arise - what better way can you dream of to flip the bird to Westminster and demonstrate others that a EU membership is something rather desirable?
 
Klaus
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:29 pm

moo wrote:
Scotland is in the EU the same way that Paris is, and the way my house is - its part of a member country, its not a member itself. It has no individual rights to membership separate to those granted via the member country.


There's a significant difference: Scotland is an identifiable cultural and political entity, and it's exactly the whole point that it wants EU accession to preserve the status it and its citizens already have.

I think a citation is in order, because I can't find anything which shows the Spanish government have altered their stance on Scottish membership even with post Brexit independence, especially anything about fast tracking a post Brexit independent Scottish membership...


https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/thes ... land-joini
 
Klaus
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:35 pm

vfw614 wrote:
I think it is beyond reasonable doubt that the EU will bend over backwards to accommodate a Scottish EU membership application should the opportunity ever arise - what better way can you dream of to flip the bird to Westminster and demonstrate others that a EU membership is something rather desirable?


As long as Scotland will have followed a reasonable path towards that point, its chances shouldn't be too bad.

Theresa May is in a difficult position there: The way she right now completely disregards all scottish requests for a referendum she is reinforcing the appearance that Scotland is effectively being held captive against the will of its population and that it is forcibly being dragged out of the EU.

Not a good position to be in, and Nicola Sturgeon clearly knows that.
 
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OA260
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Re: UK EU Withdrawal Starts - Article 50 Invoked

Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:41 pm

What Spain has said is that they will under no circumstances allow Scotland to remain or have special status whilst part of the UK. If Scotland were to vote to leave the UK it would need to become a truly independent nation and then apply as any candidate would ie: the likes of Serbia and get in the line. They would also not want to see them fast tracked as this could cause issues with other members who are waiting to get in. So while I can see no blocking to become a candidate member they would still go through a process of a number of years to become a full member. Just remember if Scotland were to vote for leaving the UK that process would take years. There are many issues such as who controls the military bases and many other issues such as pension liabilities,assets etc..

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