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User avatar
Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:27 pm

sf260 wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
sf260 wrote:
Imo, the referendum should have never happened


Why?

Because the fundamentals of a society, or the way how different nations interact with each other, are not black or white as the result of a referendum. You can do such a referendum every 5 years, with alternating results, what are you going to do? Leave and join every time?

You only need a good campaign to win a referendum, it doesn't matter much if half of your arguments are true or false. (B. Johnson and N. Farage already admitted right after the referendum that some of their slogans won't materialise as they may not have been completely accurate)

If there wasn't a war in Syria, and if there wasn't such in influx of refugees in the last couple of years in the EU, would the result of the referendum still be the same, or would the Remain camp have won with 52%? (migration control is the 2nd biggest reason for people to vote for Brexit, so it largely influenced the outcome. I have lived in the UK and there are indeed also quite some Polish, Ukrainian, Romanian workers, but they do jobs the British youngsters don't want to do, so I can hardly see that being a real reason in the migration topic. If it is, they should motivate their own people instead of leaving the EU)

In most modern democracies, this is also the reason why a victory of the opposition during an election won't have a dramatic effect of the course of the country in the short term. They'll need some victories in a row to make some really meaningful changes.

The European Union is a project of the last 70 years. It is far from perfect, but that is also why it keeps evolving. I still think it makes our continent a better place.


Perhaps a referendum with a 2/3 majority would have been better, the same as a majority which is needed to change the constitution in many countries.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:59 pm

Tugger wrote:
Yes the Article 50 process is specified with a required two year frame, but all the parties involved should really have everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, in place and strategies formulated prior to that time.


The UK could have done it and make the EU look stupid and unprepared. The Tories instead of preparing for both options pandered to Farage, yet another Putin's boyfriend, probably hoping the referendum would be with a negative result or they thought within the context of their delusions of grandeur that they would have an upper hand in Brexit negotiations for some reason.
Let's not forget the UK wanted out, not vice versa.

Dutchy wrote:
almost a year has passed when the article 50 was triggered


Art. 50 was activated 4 weeks ago, March 28, few weeks before May decided it would be a great idea to have irregular elections and expects the other 27 countries to just stop and wait.

sf260 wrote:
It is far from perfect, but that is also why it keeps evolving. I still think it makes our continent a better place.

It is by far lesser evil than disintegrated Europe ruled by various Farages, Le Pens, Orbans or Zemans and other local Quislings.
 
LTenEleven
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:52 pm

I wonder on what planet is May living?

https://www.youtube.com/embed/udNeAU1Yv74?ecver
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:00 pm

Olddog wrote:
What is even more hilarious is someone took the time to post the article 50.4 and you failed the basic reading test.

Do you agree with everything you read?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:55 pm

scbriml wrote:
Aesma wrote:
So you think the UK can take the EU hostage for two years ?


No, and anyone who understands how UK politics works would know that's not what's happening. But hey, feel free to paint the UK as the bad guys as usual.


There is a presidential election going on right now in my country. It is not a snap political decision by the current president to prop himself up, the date has been known for years. Yet France is not blocking any EU decision. And no candidate, even anti-EU ones, has asked for such a thing.

If every whim of an EU leader might block everything, I'm not sure how the EU is supposed to work.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:56 pm

speedbored wrote:
Personally, I believe that the most likely trigger for the eventual break up of the EU is not the UK leaving with a decent agreement; it is the UK leaving with no agreement at all.


I don't know the future but I think a hard Brexit would be much simpler for a lot of people.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:05 pm

JJJ wrote:
Not really, but when it comes to too fast an expansion sure it is. In the words of a certain Mr. Blair it was "One of the greatest achievements of British diplomacy of the last decades".


Wow, I never realised that the UK had the power and authority to admit other countries to the EU without anyone else agreeing. That's what you're saying, yes?

Or are you saying that the UK pushed for it and everyone else agreed, which, somehow in your eyes, makes it the UK's "fault"?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:25 pm

Aesma wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Aesma wrote:
So you think the UK can take the EU hostage for two years ?


No, and anyone who understands how UK politics works would know that's not what's happening. But hey, feel free to paint the UK as the bad guys as usual.


There is a presidential election going on right now in my country. It is not a snap political decision by the current president to prop himself up, the date has been known for years. Yet France is not blocking any EU decision. And no candidate, even anti-EU ones, has asked for such a thing.

If every whim of an EU leader might block everything, I'm not sure how the EU is supposed to work.


On the face of it, it seems quite reasonable: no decisions on new policies. But if you think about it, it is not very practical. There are 28 EU members, everywhere there are elections, so indeed it would be quite impractical if all countries have a moratorium when there are elections. Four this year I am aware of: The Netherlands, France, UK, and Germany. In The Netherlands, there is quite a long time till a new government is formed. Probably there will not be a new coalition before September / October, so there should not be any new European decision before that is done?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
UltimoTiger777
Posts: 458
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 1:17 am

Ahhhh that's what happens when you use the atrocious D'Hondt system for elections.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7006
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 3:07 am

Í wonder what all this noise from the UK about Brexit is all about. Here are some facts:

1. It is the UK which chose to exit the EU. Not the other way around. The 27 EU27 countries remain EU countries. It changes the EU slightly that EU28 becomes EU27, but nothing really dramatic, and certainly nothing to worry about.

2. Hard Brexit and WTO rules is default procedure. Changes from default may happen when the UK proposes changes and EU27 approves. Not the other way around. Before March 2019.

It seems to me that many UK citizens including politicians imagine that the UK is very important to the rest of the EU. And that tough negotiations among equal partners are ahead of us. No, not so. The EU wants good relations to all friendly countries, whether they are members or not, but the UK can't blackmail EU27 into cherry-picking future relationship. If negotiations end up with agreements which EU27 judges favorable for EU27, like for instance present agreements with the four EFTA countries, then great. Otherwise, no deal.

If I was British, then I would press my politicians hard to get started immediately. Now almost a year has passed since the referendum, and it seems like nothing has happened in the UK yet. Only the mud slinging against EU27 has intensified a bit. But since it's a minor issue on the eastern side of the Channel, then few people here actually noticed that.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
Klaus
Posts: 21303
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 4:30 am

Braybuddy wrote:
It would be more reasonable, in my world view, seeing that the UK cannot participate in these meetings, that it be not treated as a full member. Which would entail the EU not accepting all or part of the UK contribution. Mrs May has been accused of wanting her cake and eating it. Seems that applies to the EU 27 as well.


No. The exiting country has made firm commitments before which remain on the books and remain to be paid off in due course. It's not the EU27's fault that Britain had unilaterally decided to jump ship all of a sudden with no prior warning, so they cannot be liable to have their entire budget shot to hell on a whim of the deliberate defector.

Also it is not just prescribed in the rules that the exiting country is excluded from EU deliberations concerning that exit, it is also the only possible option in the first place.

Other meetings about matters which still affect the exiting country in other ways will have that country still on board, but it is also expected to recuse itself from matters which concern the future of the Union beyond its departure.

And that is also the only sensible way to do this when you really think it through.


Tugger wrote:
To see the bickering here is sad and unsettling. I am stuck with what I have going on in my country so I won't and don't point any fingers, but isn't the EU supposed a tiny bit more enlightened than the USA in its politics etc?


It is, but Article 50 is pretty severe in its consequences for good reason.

Article 50 was designed to basically be a "nuclear option", but specifically to shelter the EU as an ongoing organisation from most of the fallout of the deliberately exiting member state in order to deter external sabotage and exploitation.

Its consequences were designed to be so harsh as to deter any frivolous toying with the idea of an exit. Ironically it was british negotiators who did much to build it into the Lisbon Treaty this way.

Nobody seriously expected any member country to stumble out of the Union blindly without actually understanding what they were doing as apparently is the case with Britain now, where none of the UK government representatives or of the Brexit campaigners actually seem to grasp what it really is they are doing here. They are still trying to wing it, to make it up as they go along without any serious prior research or planning.

The almost certainly resulting hardships have nothing to do with malice on the part of the EU27 but are simply just consequences – and perfectly foreseeable ones at that, if anyone had actually cared to look ahead in earnest.

The two-year schedule for the exit negotiations is quick and brutal, but should be very barely feasible if everybody actually worked extremely hard to pull it off – instead of dragging their heels and throwing in additional delays and roadblocks wasting precious time (such as pulling an out-of-schedule election!).

And to make this perfectly clear: The Lisbon Treaty and its Article 50 are specifically designed to preserve and protect the European Union – and with the declaration of Article 50 the exiting country automatically and instantly switches from being a fully protected member country to becoming a potentially hostile and soon-to-be unprotected third country with only that short grace period of 24 months.

The Lisbon Treaty does not offer any protections to a third country – and if you're declaring Article 50 you damn well better have all your ducks in a row and all your hatches tied down for severe weather since wherever in doubt, it is the European Union which will be protected and preserved and the exiting country will get the short straw whenever there's a conflict of interests.

The whole process is designed that way for good reason, and you should not undertake it without being really, really certain that you're able to come out intact on the other end of it.

There is a clear and present lack of seriousness and preparation on the UK side which may well turn out to be disastrous for the UK, but the EU27 will be busy enough protecting their own interests first and foremost from the consequences of an error of judgment that was made by another and soon-to-be external party.

It sure is tragic, but by far most of the wounds Britain is likely to receive are in fact self-inflicted.


par13del wrote:
The initial EU position stated that any member could veto, I thought the EU was a democratic organization where some decisions could be implemented by a majority vote.


Majority decisions are limited to non-essential ones which don't materially affect the individual member countries.

The exit negotiations might qualify for that, but more likely they won't, so it will probably come to a unanimous decision (meaning every country would have a veto).

A new trade deal would definitely require unanimity, as does accession of any new member (which by the way made BoJo's propaganda claim of Turkey being foisted on the UK as a new member utterly mendacious, further exacerbated by his own turnaround after the referendum offering to lend Turkey a helping hand for accession).

How exactly is the UK going to get any kind of deal unless it specifically caters to the demands of each member?


The agreement that was just made is (among other things) designed to mostly isolate the EU27 negotiators from any spurious demands by member countries.


L410Turbolet wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Yes the Article 50 process is specified with a required two year frame, but all the parties involved should really have everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, in place and strategies formulated prior to that time.


The UK could have done it and make the EU look stupid and unprepared.


They could have tried, but it would have been difficult to pull off since the EU was effectively ready to talk a few days after the referendum.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 4:40 am

KLDC10 wrote:
I'd add to that today's comments by soon-to-be-ex-French President Francois Hollande that the UK must be "weaker" outside of the EU.


Exact quote and source, please!

I have heard that very differently.


speedbored wrote:
Personally, I believe that the most likely trigger for the eventual break up of the EU is not the UK leaving with a decent agreement; it is the UK leaving with no agreement at all.


That matters relatively little to the EU, actually.

And it should be deeply troubling to any briton that their own government hasn't even bothered to seriously look into the actual consequences of a no-deal exit but at the same time still proposes it as a supposedly viable negotiating outcome!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 7:05 am

scbriml wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Not really, but when it comes to too fast an expansion sure it is. In the words of a certain Mr. Blair it was "One of the greatest achievements of British diplomacy of the last decades".


Wow, I never realised that the UK had the power and authority to admit other countries to the EU without anyone else agreeing. That's what you're saying, yes?

Or are you saying that the UK pushed for it and everyone else agreed, which, somehow in your eyes, makes it the UK's "fault"?


But yet the UK thought that the EU is to blame for most of the problems in the UK. And yes when it comes to the expansion of the EU every single member of the European Council is free to veto it.
 
LAH1
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 7:38 am

It seems that the UK isn't the only one to think that the EU is to blame for problems affecting their countries.
Macron interview reported by the BBC this morning :-

....we have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable.
"So I do consider that my mandate, the day after, will be at the same time to reform in depth the European Union and our European project."
Mr Macron added that if he were to allow the EU to continue to function as it was would be a "betrayal".
"And I don't want to do so," he said. "Because the day after, we will have a Frexit or we will have [Ms Le Pen's] National Front (FN) again."
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 8:10 am

Ending the Strasbourg travelling circus would be an excellent, symbolic first step. Followed by Common Agro Policy...
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 8:22 am

seahawk wrote:
But yet the UK thought that the EU is to blame for most of the problems in the UK.


Not "the UK" but some in the UK, yes. But then every country has it's bitter minority.

seahawk wrote:
And yes when it comes to the expansion of the EU every single member of the European Council is free to veto it.


Exactly. So to try and blame the UK for a joint decision is laughable.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 8:36 am

LAH1 wrote:
It seems that the UK isn't the only one to think that the EU is to blame for problems affecting their countries.
Macron interview reported by the BBC this morning :-

....we have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable.
"So I do consider that my mandate, the day after, will be at the same time to reform in depth the European Union and our European project."
Mr Macron added that if he were to allow the EU to continue to function as it was would be a "betrayal".
"And I don't want to do so," he said. "Because the day after, we will have a Frexit or we will have [Ms Le Pen's] National Front (FN) again."


I hope he truly means it, everyone seems to agree the EU needs reform, the question is, in what direction should the EU develop.

L410Turbolet wrote:
Ending the Strasbourg travelling circus would be an excellent, symbolic first step. Followed by Common Agro Policy...


Agree, those subjects should be addressed first. Both have France as the main stakeholder, so what would they like in return?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 8:38 am

scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
But yet the UK thought that the EU is to blame for most of the problems in the UK.


Not "the UK" but some in the UK, yes. But then every country has it's bitter minority.

seahawk wrote:
And yes when it comes to the expansion of the EU every single member of the European Council is free to veto it.


Exactly. So to try and blame the UK for a joint decision is laughable.


Imho that is a problem of the British point of view largely caused by your politicians using the EU as a scapegoat for decades now. No important decision was ever made without the UK agreeing to it, yet for public consumption the EU always forced the UK to go down a path. I remember the expansion into Eastern Europe and at the time the UK was pushing for it, because those countries promised to be allies to British ideas in the future, when the Polish plumbers moved to the UK, it was the stupid EU forcing the UK to let the Poles in.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 8:39 am

seahawk wrote:
scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
But yet the UK thought that the EU is to blame for most of the problems in the UK.


Not "the UK" but some in the UK, yes. But then every country has it's bitter minority.

seahawk wrote:
And yes when it comes to the expansion of the EU every single member of the European Council is free to veto it.


Exactly. So to try and blame the UK for a joint decision is laughable.


Imho that is a problem of the British point of view largely caused by your politicians using the EU as a scapegoat for decades now. No important decision was ever made without the UK agreeing to it, yet for public consumption the EU always forced the UK to go down a path. I remember the expansion into Eastern Europe and at the time the UK was pushing for it, because those countries promised to be allies to British ideas in the future, when the Polish plumbers moved to the UK, it was the stupid EU forcing the UK to let the Poles in.


That seems to be a common problem, Dutch politicians do the same. All the "bad" stuff, forced by Brussel, all the "good" stuff, we did it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sf260
Posts: 280
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 8:52 am

LAH1 wrote:
It seems that the UK isn't the only one to think that the EU is to blame for problems affecting their countries.
Macron interview reported by the BBC this morning :-

....we have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable.
"So I do consider that my mandate, the day after, will be at the same time to reform in depth the European Union and our European project."
Mr Macron added that if he were to allow the EU to continue to function as it was would be a "betrayal".
"And I don't want to do so," he said. "Because the day after, we will have a Frexit or we will have [Ms Le Pen's] National Front (FN) again."

That is one-sided part of the story. Macron is very pro-EU and wants to form a "European Defence Force", an Eurozone Budget Commission and Parliament, etc. The EU-project is not finished and he wants to reform it in order to be more equal, more united, stronger on an international level. And to be honest, all of this will be much easier to reach without the UK.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 9:01 am

If you think Macron is an UK ally, you will have a tough wake up call.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 9:48 am

sf260 wrote:
[ Macron is very pro-EU and wants to form a "European Defence Force", an Eurozone Budget Commission and Parliament, etc.

Wouldn't it be easier for France to simply pull out of the NATO? Again. Because that's the whole point and French mantra since de Gaulle, cripple the NATO by creating a useless duplicate structure.
I just can't see the European sissy armies projecting any serious military power when vast majority of them is refusing to spend even the bare minimum of 2% of GDP on their own freaking defence (the fact that Trumputin still thinks the 2% is some sort of racketeering scheme he is being owed is for another discussion ).
As if it wasn't embarrassing enough to be reminded by a Kremlin puppet about our own commitments, counterclaims that money thrown into the black hole known as "development aid" should be included in the "defense spending" is just ridiculous. Imagine the sight of a front line when Russian or Turkish advancing tank columns are met with stiff resistance of the gender and quota regulated Euroarmy which responds by throwing thick and heavy paper files full of "higly explosive" bills of wasted money on development aid for Africa.
 
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speedbored
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 11:03 am

Klaus wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
I'd add to that today's comments by soon-to-be-ex-French President Francois Hollande that the UK must be "weaker" outside of the EU.

Exact quote and source, please! I have heard that very differently.

I'm pretty sure that he carefully worded his comment so that it could be interpreted in a number of ways. But it seems to me to be a cleverly veiled threat that that is exactly what he wants: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39755124

What I don't understand is why it matters so much to so many EU politicians and bureaucrats whether the UK will be richer/poorer, stronger/weaker, better/worse or anything else post-Brexit. It really should be irrelevant to them - all that should matter to them is what happens to the rest of Europe after we have left.

The fact that so many EU politicians seem determined that the UK must be seen to be worse off after leaving really does not bode well for the very difficult negotiations to come.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 11:05 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
sf260 wrote:
[ Macron is very pro-EU and wants to form a "European Defence Force", an Eurozone Budget Commission and Parliament, etc.

Wouldn't it be easier for France to simply pull out of the NATO? Again. Because that's the whole point and French mantra since de Gaulle, cripple the NATO by creating a useless duplicate structure.
I just can't see the European sissy armies projecting any serious military power when vast majority of them is refusing to spend even the bare minimum of 2% of GDP on their own freaking defence (the fact that Trumputin still thinks the 2% is some sort of racketeering scheme he is being owed is for another discussion ).
As if it wasn't embarrassing enough to be reminded by a Kremlin puppet about our own commitments, counterclaims that money thrown into the black hole known as "development aid" should be included in the "defense spending" is just ridiculous. Imagine the sight of a front line when Russian or Turkish advancing tank columns are met with stiff resistance of the gender and quota regulated Euroarmy which responds by throwing thick and heavy paper files full of "higly explosive" bills of wasted money on development aid for Africa.


I think it is quite sensible to have more intra-European cooperation. More bang for our buck, so to say. The Netherlands is cooperation with Germany with army units, with Belgium and Luxembourg in air assets, with Belgium with navy assets, with Norway and Poland on the tanker projects and so on. And the need to spend more money on defense is quite apparent and the NATO countries committed to it. As far as an EU defense force, Ireland, Finland, Austria, and Sweden aren't part of NATO, but are part of the EU.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LAH1
Posts: 153
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 11:28 am

Olddog wrote:
If you think Macron is an UK ally, you will have a tough wake up call.


I didn't, and I don't. But please continue to put your own slant on my post.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 11:49 am

You don't seem to realize the Brexit is a daily subject in the UK while almost none talk about it on the continent unless there are new news. I am sure you are able to read some newspapers online in france, germany or spain for exemple and see by yourself....
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
sf260
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 12:11 pm

speedbored wrote:
The fact that so many EU politicians seem determined that the UK must be seen to be worse off after leaving really does not bode well for the very difficult negotiations to come.

I think that is a misunderstanding on your part. There might be some politicians that like to see that, but they are an overwhelming minority! I have not heard one politician in my country that has said that he wants to see the UK worse off after the Brexit. Most of them want to respect UK's vote to leave and limit the damage, the desire for a hard Brexit comes from the UK, not the EU.

Much of the UK media like to draw a picture of the EU as the evil grandma, but that really is not the case and works counterproductive. I don't blame you for not having an accurate view on the situation.

I work for a large corporation and we were fully taken over by a foreign holding company last year, the media only focussed on one sentence (that "all jobs could not be guaranteed in this sector") and neglected all the positive news. It was kind of a PR disaster, while it was actually goods news with a lot more stability and future prospects in the long term. More than 200 new recruits have already been added since the take-over. The media has a lot of power to change the public opinion, not always for the best.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 12:28 pm

speedbored wrote:
Klaus wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
I'd add to that today's comments by soon-to-be-ex-French President Francois Hollande that the UK must be "weaker" outside of the EU.

Exact quote and source, please! I have heard that very differently.

I'm pretty sure that he carefully worded his comment so that it could be interpreted in a number of ways. But it seems to me to be a cleverly veiled threat that that is exactly what he wants: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39755124


The relevant bit from that article says something completely different than the claim from the quote above:

BBC wrote:
Speaking earlier, French President François Hollande said there would inevitably be "a price and a cost for the UK - it's the choice that was made".
"We must not be punitive, but at the same time it's clear that Europe knows how to defend its interests, and that Britain will have a weaker position in the future outside Europe, than it has today within Europe."


There is no trace of the malice that had been claimed above, just an acknowledgment of inevitable consequences, and the obvious statement that without any of the obligations there can't be any of the benefits of the Union after Brexit.

speedbored wrote:
What I don't understand is why it matters so much to so many EU politicians and bureaucrats whether the UK will be richer/poorer, stronger/weaker, better/worse or anything else post-Brexit. It really should be irrelevant to them - all that should matter to them is what happens to the rest of Europe after we have left.


That is exactly what it really is, and the toxic distortions which are pushed onto the british public are not more helpful in any way than they were during the referendum campaign. They are intended purely for domestic british purposes, but they risk hurting Britain's standing to the EU as well.

speedbored wrote:
The fact that so many EU politicians seem determined that the UK must be seen to be worse off after leaving really does not bode well for the very difficult negotiations to come.


That's just not the case.

But leaving has consequences, and those consequences are most critical for Britain.
There is no way to eat your cake and still have it, too.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 12:46 pm

Klaus wrote:
speedbored wrote:
The fact that so many EU politicians seem determined that the UK must be seen to be worse off after leaving really does not bode well for the very difficult negotiations to come.


That's just not the case.

But leaving has consequences, and those consequences are most critical for Britain.
There is no way to eat your cake and still have it, too.


That depends on what Brittian wants, Norwegian model, then the consequences might be minimal (and the effect will be minimal so that begs the question, why leave in the first place?) or a hard Brexit and then Brittian and also the EU will feel it the most.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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speedbored
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 1:32 pm

sf260 wrote:
I think that is a misunderstanding on your part. There might be some politicians that like to see that, but they are an overwhelming minority!

I never claimed it was the majority. I said "so many" and I stick by that - too many of the most senior EU politicians and bureaucrats have clearly stated that they want the UK to be seen to not be benefitting from leaving. I believe that they have their priorities wrong.

sf260 wrote:
I don't blame you for not having an accurate view on the situation.

Dutchy wrote:
That's just not the case.

I am basing my opinion purely on quoted comments from EU leaders, not on reported or distorted opinions, so I fail to see how I can possibly be inaccurate in my view of the situation. Many (and I do not mean most) of the most senior EU bureaucrats and politicians have stated that they want to see the UK to not benefit from leaving.

Klaus wrote:
the toxic distortions which are pushed onto the british public are not more helpful

There are toxic distortions being pushed both ways - I regularly read French and German news websites, as well as English ones like the BBC, to keep up with my languages, so I'm aware of what is being presented on both sides.

Dutchy wrote:
That depends on what Brittian wants, Norwegian model, then the consequences might be minimal (and the effect will be minimal so that begs the question, why leave in the first place?) or a hard Brexit and then Brittian and also the EU will feel it the most

The problem that we have at the moment is that the EU and UK red-lines (for example, on freedom of movement) are completely incompatible so a hard exit is looking like the only option. At present, I simply can't see any way in which a satisfactory (to both sides) agreement will be possible within the time available. The more I see, the more I am convinced that too many political/bureaucratic egos means we will exit with no agreement, to the detriment of everyone who pays the bills.

If I am right, we will all suffer in the short to medium term. But I do believe that, post exit, the UK will have more freedom to fix things than any country in the EU will.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 1:39 pm

There is a nice article today:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/m ... _hp_ref=uk

I think it sums up perfectly the huge hiatus between the two.

I was dead laugh reading that:
4) May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.
— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) April 30, 2017
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 2:23 pm

So what is Juncker saying, admitting that there is no treaty language in place to mandate that the UK pay a divorce bill, but if they want a trade deal they will have to pay a divorce bill, is this in addition to any bill they will also have to pay to get a trade deal?

Sounds more like WTO would be the simply solution then spend the next 10 years like Canada working out a trade deal.
 
sf260
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 2:38 pm

speedbored wrote:
I never claimed it was the majority.

I never said you did.

speedbored wrote:
I said "so many" and I stick by that - too many of the most senior EU politicians and bureaucrats have clearly stated that they want the UK to be seen to not be benefitting from leaving. I believe that they have their priorities wrong.

I am basing my opinion purely on quoted comments from EU leaders, not on reported or distorted opinions, so I fail to see how I can possibly be inaccurate in my view of the situation. Many (and I do not mean most) of the most senior EU bureaucrats and politicians have stated that they want to see the UK to not benefit from leaving.

What do you mean by "so many" and "too many"? Is it like 3, or 5? or 100? The EU is not ruled by a few bureaucrats.

I think you are missing an important nuance. Many people, even including me, don't see how the UK will benefit from leaving, that is something totally different than wanting to see the UK not benefitting. The EU diplomats are "defending" the EU and will try to make to best deal possible for the EU, according to our common values, like free trade and movement of people.

I would be very interested to know which EU seniors really want to see the UK not benefitting, at the expense of a "good" deal for the EU. So please, tell me who they are as I will never vote for them.

It seems that, from comments like yours, the UK is prepared to take a (big) hit, even if it only is to have hope that they are better off without the EU. If it were not for hope, the heart would break. It's noble, I have to give you that.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 2:53 pm

par13del wrote:
So what is Juncker saying, admitting that there is no treaty language in place to mandate that the UK pay a divorce bill, but if they want a trade deal they will have to pay a divorce bill, is this in addition to any bill they will also have to pay to get a trade deal?

Sounds more like WTO would be the simply solution then spend the next 10 years like Canada working out a trade deal.


No, what Junker means is if you don't respect your prior commitments, there is no point wasting time arguing for a trade deal after that. And the English diplomats working in Brussels warned May about that.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 3:03 pm

par13del wrote:
So what is Juncker saying, admitting that there is no treaty language in place to mandate that the UK pay a divorce bill, but if they want a trade deal they will have to pay a divorce bill, is this in addition to any bill they will also have to pay to get a trade deal?

Sounds more like WTO would be the simply solution then spend the next 10 years like Canada working out a trade deal.


That might be the only practical solution yeah. As I understand it, Brittian agreed upon the spending plan for five years and that is the majority of the divorce bill and then there are the pension plans also for Brittish civil servants at the European Commision, also agreed upon. And the minor cost, like the 350m rent for the European drug agency (35(!) years long lease for a building). So where do you get that Juncker saisd there wasn't such a bill and Brittian isn't oblidged to pay these cost.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LAH1
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 3:13 pm

It seems more and more that anyone not agreeing with official EU policy is "living on another galaxy". Couldn't possibly be the other way round could it?
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 3:32 pm

Klaus wrote:
Its consequences were designed to be so harsh as to deter any frivolous toying with the idea of an exit.

A sort of geopolitical Hotel California?

I have no doubt that the remaining EU countries (a few excepted) will do their utmost to punish the UK as much as they can for leaving. They let the mask slip last December:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05KxeWKBeCo
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 3:52 pm

LAH1 wrote:
It seems more and more that anyone not agreeing with official EU policy is "living on another galaxy". Couldn't possibly be the other way round could it?


It is not like the EU position was not formed by the UK, as they were active in forming article 50 the way it is. In fact they were one of the states pushing for a defined way to leave the EU that went above the regulations of the Vienna treaty previously applied to that theoretical situation. And with the recent expansion of the EU in mind, they were also pushing for the process being unattractive and damaging to the country leaving, not only to keep the new members bound but also to make sure that other countries paying for the EU will not have a desire to leave it behind.

If the process is unfair and unjust, maybe the UK should not have signed the Lisbon treaty...
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 4:21 pm

Well as with most things EU, the rules etc were done by the "Eurocrats" who were elected by the people, so we all agree that they were doing the people's bidding. Now those same people voters have decided that they want to leave, I don't see the problem.

Which appears to be one of the problems with the EU, there seems to be a disconnect between the people and their elected officials, all complaints about issues are met with a stone wall, it cannot be that the only way for the people to get their issues looked at or even addressed is to leave or threaten to leave the union.

As for the divorce bill, if the EU has not presented audited financial statements in how many years, how accurate is the figure?
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 4:21 pm

What about the UK's share of European Union assets?

http://bruegel.org/2017/02/the-uks-brex ... abilities/

There are €41 billon assets which can be considered as a kind of EU ‘accumulated wealth’: cash (€21.7 billion), property (€8.7 billion), available-for-sale financial assets (€9.6 billion) and other assets (€1.0 billion).


Because at the moment, this "Brexit" talk is becoming like an elderly American billionaires divorce from some 20 year old gold digging tart, about how much alimony and final settlements should be.
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 4:23 pm

One another note, the problem also lies in each country, as the issues are first raised with the local political structure before going over to the EU elected members.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 5:02 pm

Olddog wrote:


The full Twitter thread is here: https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status ... 3353367552
And the FAZ article (in german) here: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/b ... 93605.html

Baffling and disturbing to see such an extent of amateurish blundering at the very top of a major nation.


Braybuddy wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Its consequences were designed to be so harsh as to deter any frivolous toying with the idea of an exit.

A sort of geopolitical Hotel California?


In a way, yes.

Only that it is in fact possible to leave, just don't expect any favours on your way out and be very, very clear and deliberate about every single step of your way before triggering Article 50.

The total disarray, delusional chaos and amateurish-emotional squabbling we're seeing on the british side so far does not bode particularly well, though. Bluster doesn't help at all here.

Braybuddy wrote:
I have no doubt that the remaining EU countries (a few excepted) will do their utmost to punish the UK as much as they can for leaving. They let the mask slip last December:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05KxeWKBeCo


What "mask" would that be? Disappointment and even some resentment at the most difficult and obstructive partner now entirely blowing up their membership while badmouthing the entire Union? Those were quite real.

And besides that you could cut and edit footage from pretty much any major meeting to presumably support pretty much any peconceived notion you'd want.


Dano1977 wrote:
What about the UK's share of European Union assets?


Those were already deducted before arriving at the published estimate. The raw numbers would be even higher otherwise.


par13del wrote:
So what is Juncker saying, admitting that there is no treaty language in place to mandate that the UK pay a divorce bill, but if they want a trade deal they will have to pay a divorce bill, is this in addition to any bill they will also have to pay to get a trade deal?


There is no "fee" for either exiting or for new trade relations. Only ordinary contractual obligations which need to be met in order to even get a chance for any future talks.

par13del wrote:
Sounds more like WTO would be the simply solution then spend the next 10 years like Canada working out a trade deal.


Simpler now? Certainly.

Simpler in the decades to come? Not at all!

Britain has had it never as easy and simple as it did within the EU, and the contrast will become quite obvious rather soon. And without any particular hostility from the EU27, just as direct consequences of the deliberately committed Brexit itself.

And especially the idea of a hardest-possible-direct-to-WTO Brexit are romanticized by some in Britain in a way that's got absolutely nothing to do with the harsh and brutal reality of it.

It is telling that nobody in the Westminster government has apparently had the stones yet to face the full extent of what that would actually mean in real life.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 5:28 pm

Klaus wrote:
Olddog wrote:


If true, then wow, just wow.

par13del wrote:
It is telling that nobody in the Westminster government has apparently had the stones yet to face the full extent of what that would actually mean in real life.


How is it possible that after 1 year after the referendum and advocating Brexit in the referendum (for a few members of her majesties government), they apparently have no clue what to do. Didn't they believe that they would actually win? UKIP advocated leave for almost 30 years.
You can't just say no and leave the fall out to someone else.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 5:31 pm

Dutchy wrote:
How is it possible that after 1 year after the referendum and advocating Brexit in the referendum (for a few members of her majesties government), they apparently have no clue what to do. Didn't they believe that they would actually win? UKIP advocated leave for almost 30 years.
You can't just say no and leave the fall out to someone else.


It seems they are actually believing the insane Brexit propaganda that had been designed for domestic consumption, and never bothered to actually check that against the real world.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 5:42 pm

Klaus wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
How is it possible that after 1 year after the referendum and advocating Brexit in the referendum (for a few members of her majesties government), they apparently have no clue what to do. Didn't they believe that they would actually win? UKIP advocated leave for almost 30 years.
You can't just say no and leave the fall out to someone else.


It seems they are actually believing the insane Brexit propaganda that had been designed for domestic consumption, and never bothered to actually check that against the real world.


And I don't get May, personal ambition to be PM of the UK came above her personal beliefs of staying in the EU. Personally, I would have a "Brexeteer" doing this, they created this mess, up to them to realize their vision and do good on their promises. 350m a week to the NHS, anyone?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 6:10 pm

scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Buy yet the UK thought that the EU is to blame for most of the problems in the UK.


Not "the UK" but some in the UK, yes. But then every country has it's bitter minority.

seahawk wrote:
And yes when it comes to the expansion of the EU every single member of the European Council is free to veto it.


Exactly. So to try and blame the UK for a joint decision is laughable.


Fast expansion to the east was a British brainchild as much as CAP is French and the euro German.

Britain spent considerable diplomatic resources in getting enough support to their idea of a fast expansion eastwards starting with the Thatcher government.

One wonders what those resources might have yielded if put to other uses.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 6:14 pm

In regards to May's personal ambition to be PM, that is somewhat backward, she was not the PM who promised the referendum nor was she the PM to resign after the loss, so let's at least be fair, she did not sabotage the vote for her personal gains, if anyone got sabotaged it was Boris - whether good or bad -. Now whether she should place the EU over serving her country as PM.....

The majority of politicians and civil servants in the UK are pro EU, they did not expect the leave vote to win. Why would the EU expect their supporters in the UK to suddenly have plans and unity for leaving?
The election will now determine how focused the nation will be, if the parliament is still evenly split, expect the Remain Supporters to do everything in their power to frustrate the will of the people while waiting for a new election, if there is gridlock, that could be the incentive to have another referendum on leaving the EU, the first would have been a trial balloon.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 6:32 pm

JJJ wrote:
Fast expansion to the east was a British brainchild as much as CAP is French and the euro German..

The expansions of 1981 and 1986 were from today's perspective far bigger mistakes.
Last edited by L410Turbolet on Mon May 01, 2017 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 6:33 pm

par13del wrote:
In regards to May's personal ambition to be PM, that is somewhat backward, she was not the PM who promised the referendum nor was she the PM to resign after the loss, so let's at least be fair, she did not sabotage the vote for her personal gains, if anyone got sabotaged it was Boris - whether good or bad -. Now whether she should place the EU over serving her country as PM.....

The majority of politicians and civil servants in the UK are pro EU, they did not expect the leave vote to win. Why would the EU expect their supporters in the UK to suddenly have plans and unity for leaving?
The election will now determine how focused the nation will be, if the parliament is still evenly split, expect the Remain Supporters to do everything in their power to frustrate the will of the people while waiting for a new election, if there is gridlock, that could be the incentive to have another referendum on leaving the EU, the first would have been a trial balloon.


I didn't say May did promise a referendum, David Cameron did. And indeed Boris Johnson might have put his personal ambitions above nation, who knows.

"The majority of politicians and civil servants in the UK are pro EU, they did not expect the leave vote to win. Why would the EU expect their supporters in the UK to suddenly have plans and unity for leaving?" in the case of civil servants, that is their job I would say. It was a real possibility, so why not come prepared? In the case of politicians, I don't expect the once whom were behind the remain vote, to have a plan. But I do expect the Brexiteers to have had a plan, but that plan has been absent so far and I find that kind of odd. Campaigning so fearsly for something they apparently don't know the full consequences of. So that's why I said, why not leave it to the Brexiteers to follow up their momentous decision and let a Brexiteer run the country, including the separation. That's what I would have done if I were May.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon May 01, 2017 6:40 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Fast expansion to the east was a British brainchild as much as CAP is French and the euro German..

The expansions of 1981 and 1986 were from today's perspective far bigger mistakes.


Greece, Spain and Portugal? Why? You might say joining the Euro (December 31st, 1998, January 1st, 2001 in the case of Greece) was a far bigger mistake, why do you feel joining the EEG was a mistake? It did wonders or them and the rest of EU.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
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