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Aesma
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The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:19 pm

The jobless rate in the Eurozone fell is at its lowest since the financial crisis, but is still at more than 9% overall, and much higher in Italy, Spain and Greece. I expect French numbers to improve steadily thanks to a bit more growth and reforms soon to be introduced by president Macron, for Greece I'm less optimistic, Spain I can't say, and Italy, I have family there, the situation is very poor and not improving, Italians have all but stopped making children, a very pessimistic country.

Growth is better but not stellar.

By many metrics the US is doing better, yet money is fleeing towards the Euro, creating this imbalance.

Having a stronger currency has its advantages and disadvantages, for me personally I hated when the Euro dropped from more than $1.5 to $1.15, I was spending a lot of money buying computer hardware that became much more expensive overnight. Now I have a different outlook (and different investments, thanks to that computer hardware), I'd rather have a healthier economy, and competition based on merits, not currency, with the US. My employer does business all over the world so my salary just became more expensive without me getting anything from it. You could say my gas bill will be lower, but I drive a company car most of the time, my gas bill is zero already.

Overall this is a reflection of the state of US politics more than anything else, and that's really annoying. Can't Trump be a real isolationist already and screw only his own country ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Ken777
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:29 pm

Dollars are flowing out of the country and weakening the Dollar because of the idiot we have in the White House. Think about the trust world leaders have in Trump and you get the idea.

Now toss in Harvey with all the damage it's doing to the Gulf Coast. Some areas will take a year or two to recover so what is the risk that the economy will be impacted? Is the stock market bubble solid or can Harvey pop it before the new year.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:48 pm

Seriously, do we really need yet another pointless thread about Trump?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:20 pm

Will be cheaper to visit the US for Europeans, so there are some benefits. The same for the UK, the Pound dropped 30% since the Brexit I think. The currency says something about the economy, especially in the future and something about the faith business has in the leadership in a country and thus the willingness to invest in that zone. For the EU versus the US, apparently yes, investments seem to be down, so the Dollar drops.

And as you so, there are some benefits and some drawbacks. Import will be less expensive, export will hurt for the EU zone.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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BobPatterson
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:21 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
Seriously, do we really need yet another pointless thread about Trump?

Since when is international economics about Mr. Trump or any temporary resident in the White House?
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:30 pm

BobPatterson wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
Seriously, do we really need yet another pointless thread about Trump?

Since when is international economics about Mr. Trump or any temporary resident in the White House?


Because the temporary resident in the White House does impact the US economy and thus the exchange rate of the EURO / Dollar.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:50 pm

There is nothing more to say about Trump.

I thought we could discuss the impact of the price of the euro and dollar.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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BobPatterson
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:32 am

Dutchy wrote:
BobPatterson wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
Seriously, do we really need yet another pointless thread about Trump?

Since when is international economics about Mr. Trump or any temporary resident in the White House?


Because the temporary resident in the White House does impact the US economy and thus the exchange rate of the EURO / Dollar.

Presidents are often assumed to have considerable influence on the domestic economy when, in fact, there is little evidence to support the notion.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-i ... e-economy/

Presidential appointees at the Fed are more important than the President.
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:38 am

Could Harvey have weakened the dollar? I've already notice gas prices going up.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
Ken777
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:13 am

BobPatterson wrote:

Presidential appointees at the Fed are more important than the President.


IMHO every first responder and every volunteer helping folks hit by Harvey are far more important than Trump,
 
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Francoflier
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 6:11 am

Harvey will be a drain on the US budget, which, in itself, would be enough to weaken the dollar somewhat. But then it also means that the proposed rate hike by the Fed will not happen, compounding the issue.

The US economy is doing good right now, and rates haven't really risen to keep up with that.
Although to be honest, I think the USD was slightly overinflated in the last few years, so I see it as more of an adjustment.

As for the EUR / USD exchange rate, it sits at a historically fairly average value, after its steep drop a few years back during the Greek crisis.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:07 am

We've been here before:

Image

Interesting that it was much higher during the euro crisis earlier this decade.
 
Olddog
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:11 am

You mean the US financial crisis that contaminated the whole world ?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:22 am

Olddog wrote:
You mean the US financial crisis that contaminated the whole world ?


No, the euro crisis where Greece was cooking the books and which the EU/ECB failed to detect in time.
 
Olddog
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:27 am

Yes with Goldman-Sachs help ?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Aesma
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:42 am

Francoflier wrote:
Harvey will be a drain on the US budget, which, in itself, would be enough to weaken the dollar somewhat. But then it also means that the proposed rate hike by the Fed will not happen, compounding the issue.

The US economy is doing good right now, and rates haven't really risen to keep up with that.
Although to be honest, I think the USD was slightly overinflated in the last few years, so I see it as more of an adjustment.

As for the EUR / USD exchange rate, it sits at a historically fairly average value, after its steep drop a few years back during the Greek crisis.


Why was the USD overinflated ? The strength of a currency should be linked to the strength of the economy, and the status of the currency as a safe haven or not. The US economy has been growing for years, and the USD is the definition of a safe haven currency, so it should have been much higher.

As for the Euro dropping, it was not linked to the crisis, it was thanks to the ECB finally doing quantitative easing, years after the Fed and Bank of Japan started doing it.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:42 am

Olddog wrote:
Yes with Goldman-Sachs help ?

If you want to blame the Americans, I'm sure you can dig-up all sorts of reasons for doing so, and Goldman Sachs had a part to play, but the fault lay in the flawed design of the euro in the first place.
 
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OA260
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:44 pm

Fingers crossed the USD keeps getting weaker. Great for European tourists. Same for the STG . :thumbsup:
 
Klaus
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:00 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
Olddog wrote:
Yes with Goldman-Sachs help ?

If you want to blame the Americans, I'm sure you can dig-up all sorts of reasons for doing so, and Goldman Sachs had a part to play, but the fault lay in the flawed design of the euro in the first place.


Not really. The greek government simply lied about its fiscal situation to get into the Euro. That was the primary trigger of the issues connected to that.

The Euro has always come with the demand that the participating countries would have to converge their fiscal policies and get their respective houses in order, especially regarding their debt; It was always known and accepted that that convergence would take time and be a stressful transition, which it has been and in some respects still is, but it's simply work that had to be done and still remains to be done either way. No surprises there, really, and no better alternative available either.

The 2008 financial crisis was primarily generated by a lack of financial market supervision in the USA, with many international banks having no scruples about getting their share of the (temporary) loot.
 
zhiao
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:35 pm

Kind of a pointless thread. It's now below $1.19, for example and could be at a totally different spot a month from now. The only reason it went to $1.05 after 2016 election was that there were hopes for tax reform and infrastructure, which technically can still happen. Also, the ending of ECB QE was not priced in at the time, while now it is. This combined with lower US bond yields have sent the dollar down since March.
 
zhiao
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:39 pm

Aesma wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Harvey will be a drain on the US budget, which, in itself, would be enough to weaken the dollar somewhat. But then it also means that the proposed rate hike by the Fed will not happen, compounding the issue.

The US economy is doing good right now, and rates haven't really risen to keep up with that.
Although to be honest, I think the USD was slightly overinflated in the last few years, so I see it as more of an adjustment.

As for the EUR / USD exchange rate, it sits at a historically fairly average value, after its steep drop a few years back during the Greek crisis.


Why was the USD overinflated ? The strength of a currency should be linked to the strength of the economy, and the status of the currency as a safe haven or not. The US economy has been growing for years, and the USD is the definition of a safe haven currency, so it should have been much higher.

As for the Euro dropping, it was not linked to the crisis, it was thanks to the ECB finally doing quantitative easing, years after the Fed and Bank of Japan started doing it.


Not really, for example many east Asian currencies, with their fast growing economies, have had weak currencies for years.
 
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OA260
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:50 pm

Klaus wrote:
Not really. The greek government simply lied about its fiscal situation to get into the Euro. That was the primary trigger of the issues connected to that.



Assisted by the German government at the time who wanted Greece in the Euro project and were willing to overlook certain things. Lets not forget that. It takes two to tango as they say. ;)
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:32 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
the fault lay in the flawed design of the euro in the first place.


Yet those whose only answer to any flaw is "more Europe" still insist on implementation of Euro in countries that do not want it and/or are not ready for it.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:17 pm

Klaus wrote:
Not really. The greek government simply lied about its fiscal situation to get into the Euro.

Yes, and the ECB never noticed, or could do nothing about it. While the 2008 crisis started in the US, this one was a European creation: a flaw in the design of the euro was that it was impossible to enforce diciplne in a currency union of soverign states.
 
Klaus
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Re: The Euro rose above $1.20 today

Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:14 am

Braybuddy wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Not really. The greek government simply lied about its fiscal situation to get into the Euro.

Yes, and the ECB never noticed, or could do nothing about it. While the 2008 crisis started in the US, this one was a European creation: a flaw in the design of the euro was that it was impossible to enforce diciplne in a currency union of soverign states.


Self-commitments and treaties can still work. They're not the quick or easy way, but they can still work.

All the false predictions that the Coal and Steel Union, the EEC, the EU or the Euro would "surely" fail within just a few years have always sprung from the underestimation of that fact.

Making treaties actually work in real life is difficult, but in view of the alternatives it's still worth it.

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