Seems like the situation is going to escalate very, very badly...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41780116

The separation is illegal and against the Spanish constitution. A lot of people will go to jail for this, including Puigdemont.

If it gets very nasty they can say goodbye to their tourist industry and the Catalan economy will tank ! Expect more companies to leave for cities in the rest of Spain. I hope their politicians think its all worth it.

KarelXWB wrote:

The separation is illegal and against the Spanish constitution. A lot of people will go to jail for this, including Puigdemont.

It is against the Spanish constitution and Spanish law. That does not automatically mean it is "illegal", it may very well be, but Catalan is certainly large enough to invoke self determination, and if they can make that stick, secession would be legal regardless of what Spanish law says.

best regards
Thomas

LIVE: Spanish senate approves Catalan direct rule

Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy announces plans to depose Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and "restore law and democracy".

http://news.sky.com/story/live-madrid-s ... y-11100121

tommy1808 wrote:

It is against the Spanish constitution and Spanish law. That does not automatically mean it is "illegal", it may very well be

As the referendum was illegal, I fully expect this separation to be illegal as well.

but Catalan is certainly large enough to invoke self determination, and if they can make that stick, secession would be legal regardless of what Spanish law says.

I doubt Catalonia will succeed. Madrid can send the Guardia Civil to Catalonia and arrest the entire parlement.

From a purely dispassionate angle, there is nothing anywhere that states any country on this planet has the right to exist solely because it exists, much less exist in perpetuity. "Spain", "Germany", "Vatican City", "Kurdistan", "United States", "China", "Argentina", "South Vietnam", "Imperium Romanum", none have any right to exist. At most one can say that these and all-other states have a right to peaceful coexistence, which by the nature of that UN and international understanding makes it harder to change political borders. But legally it is not an endorsement of a right to exist. Israel maybe an odd exception but even there such an arrangement tends to be bilateral between Israel and other nations and not a sweeping global agreement.

All that said... this regionalism in the year 2020 is anachronism. I know many say that supranational bodies are asfixiating national self determination, but the reality is in-order to have a competitive economy, thriving culture, vigorous trade, you need many international friends, borders open to new products, ideas, and yes people, or you stagnate. This maxim has been constantly true since Rome, through Tang China, Japan, Argentina, now the USA and Britain, and others. When you close yourself you decline. If it was true in the era of the chariot it can only be more true in the era of 5G.

So Catalunya has neither a right to exist nor can it be denied existence. But one must seriously question their thought process, if they really believe a small republic on a Mediterranean corner will be prosperous by being outside almost all relevant international organizations and arrangements in this day and age. That is the reality of the world which might be highly uncomfortable for the independent lobby to admit and accept.

Going to be a busy and messy weekend.

I think the Spanish government has handled the situation badly, but this independent bs is equally moronic. These pro-secessionists walk and talk as if they have some massive mandate from the people when all the polls and stats show Catalans at best evenly split on the notion.

Derico wrote:

So Catalunya has neither a right to exist nor can it be denied existence. But one must seriously question their thought process, if they really believe a small republic on a Mediterranean corner will be prosperous by being outside almost all relevant international organizations and arrangements in this day and age. That is the reality of the world which might be highly uncomfortable for the independent lobby to admit and accept.

Very true.

Catalunya might find that they have the right to exist as an independent nation around the same time that they might find that a small, isolated nation that can't do any serious trading with the rest of its European neighbors does not make for a great business case.

Declaring independence from Spain does not mean that the rest of the World will accept them as an independent nation.

Derico wrote:

All that said... this regionalism in the year 2020 is anachronism. I know many say that supranational bodies are asfixiating national self determination, but the reality is in-order to have a competitive economy, thriving culture, vigorous trade, you need many international friends, borders open to new products, ideas, and yes people, or you stagnate. This maxim has been constantly true since Rome, through Tang China, Japan, Argentina, now the USA and Britain, and others. When you close yourself you decline. If it was true in the era of the chariot it can only be more true in the era of 5G.

Unfortunately, the human kind is still very bad at putting thoughts before basal emotions.
All the rational evidence you could ever produce can all be easily defeated by a small group of people good at fostering irrational fears. Sticking your head in the sand is an easy way to make those perceived threats go away...

It's a shame, since at the end of the day, unity is strength, division is weakness.

I know it would set a bad precedent, but wouldn't it be better for both if Spain let them go. They are at a point of no return. Imposing direct rule is going to prolong the issue and economies of both regions will suffer. A quick amicable divorce is always better than long bitter battle.

KarelXWB wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

It is against the Spanish constitution and Spanish law. That does not automatically mean it is "illegal", it may very well be

As the referendum was illegal, I fully expect this separation to be illegal as well.

Under Spanish law, that basically isn't applicable anymore. Was the end of Yogoslavia legal under Yogoslavien law?

but Catalan is certainly large einough to invoke self determination, and if they can make that stick, secession would be legal regardless of what Spanish law says.

I doubt Catalonia will succeed.

I doubt that very much as well, but they probably have standing under international law, and that outranks Spanish law....

Madrid can send the Guardia Civil to Catalonia and arrest the entire parlement.

"You are under arrest, follom us!"
"No!"

and than what? What level of violate do you think they can apply until "we" have to bomb Madrid, or make a big fucking "ok, you got is, bombing the hell out of former Yogoslavia was never about human rights and self determination" statement to the whole world?

For a number of people that would also be an armed invation, so for many people it would be perfectly fine to shot at those cops if they misbehave, firebomb their cars and try to overrun police statons and small military instalations to get weapons.

Whoever uses force first, has lost.

Best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Whoever uses force first, has lost.

Best regards
Thomas

I fear that, once again, we are in agreement
The optics would be very bad for Spain if the government were to attempt to deploy the Guardia Civil or Army into Catalonia this evening. It seems like there are tens of thousands of Catalans on the streets of Barcelona. It could get very messy indeed.

dtw2hyd wrote:

I know it would set a bad precedent, but wouldn't it be better for both if Spain let them go. They are at a point of no return. Imposing direct rule is going to prolong the issue and economies of both regions will suffer. A quick amicable divorce is always better than long bitter battle.

Then the Basque country will leave Spain, then another bit, and soon enough there is no more Spain.

The election was a mess, and can hardly be described as democratic. They have done these unofficial elections several times, and all of a sudden they throw this one. It never had official recognition, and so many voters didn't bother to turn up. There is a lot to indicate that only a minority of die-hard independence seekers bothered to turn up, and that minority now gets to decide the fate of the entire region.

IMHO, if Catalonia wishes independence they should get it. It should however be done on the basis of a proper democratic election, not a private party for what is potentially a minoroity.

VSMUT wrote:

There is a lot to indicate that only a minority of die-hard independence seekers bothered to turn up, and that minority now gets to decide the fate of the entire region. .

Like those hundreds of thousands people currently protesting the declaration of independence in the streets of Barcelona?

Oh wait... they don't exist....

Best regards
Thomas

flyguy89 wrote:

I think the Spanish government has handled the situation badly, but this independent bs is equally moronic. These pro-secessionists walk and talk as if they have some massive mandate from the people when all the polls and stats show Catalans at best evenly split on the notion.

Exactly the point. Nothing else matters. They have NO mandate at all to declare anything. It was a circus of a vote. Unionists boycotted the vote and it was an illegal vote. I can decide to hold a referendum in my street then declare I have a mandate to do things. Does not make it legal. The politicians in Barcelona are playing a dangerous game and could eventually have blood on their hands. The EU have made it quite clear they will not be recognised. They will become Northern Cyprus overnight!



Catalonia crisis: Tusk says 'nothing changes' for EU over independence

THE European Union (EU) has once again kept silent on the growing fractured situation in Catalonia after the government formally declared independence.

The move by the semi-autonomous region comes on a momentous day for the whole of Spain as in the capital the Senate is currently debating the imposition of Article 155 and direct rule.

Catalan MPs voted for independence by a margin of 70 votes to 10. Two ballot papers were blank.

Donald Tusk has said that for the EU “nothing changes’ despite the Catalan Parliament voting to breakaway from Spain.

He said that the EU would continue to only speak with Spain.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/871 ... rticle-155

A mess again and therefore illegal. No country will recognize that or some rogue states like Russia might.

They have to work out their differences in another way. Badly handled by Catalunia and Madrid.

tommy1808 wrote:

but they probably have standing under international law, and that outranks Spanish law....

That is not true.... what international law are you speaking of?
There is no "international law" that outranks a sovereign nation's laws.

We may have bodies like the WTO and the UN but they do not outrank any of the nations they serve (or don't serve).

Tugg

tommy1808 wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

There is a lot to indicate that only a minority of die-hard independence seekers bothered to turn up, and that minority now gets to decide the fate of the entire region. .

Like those hundreds of thousands people currently protesting the declaration of independence in the streets of Barcelona?

Oh wait... they don't exist....

Best regards
Thomas

And a few weeks earlier hundreds of thousands of unionists were protesting in the streets. They also exist.

The central government has acted stupidly, but the pro-secessionist Catalonians are acting like morons. One of the opposition Catalonian MPs put it succinctly summarizing the careless, rough-shod way pro-secessionists are moving...they've essentially orphaned half their countrymen and left them without a government.

I agree with you that the first side to use violence is at an instant disadvantage. The best thing for Spain to do is leave it alone and let the the secessionists swing punches at air, no one is going to recognize or speak with them and it just further undercuts their independence arguments.

I also expect now that independence has been declared and the specter of financial hardship or ruin that would likely accompany independence has suddenly become very real that we'll begin hearing more noise and potential clashes from the pro-union opposition.

Article 155 is being executed:

Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont and all of his govt are removed from their roles. Spanish PM calls for regional elections on the 21st Dec

And:

Spain public prosecutor announces will be filing charges of rebellion agnst Puigdemont - carries a sentence of up to 30 yrs [email protected]

Tugger wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

but they probably have standing under international law, and that outranks Spanish law....

That is not true.... what international law are you speaking of?
There is no "international law" that outranks a sovereign nation's laws.

We may have bodies like the WTO and the UN but they do not outrank any of the nations they serve (or don't serve).

Tugg

Actually in 2008, the ICJ ruled on the situation in Kosovo after being petitioned by Serbia, who considered the unilateral declaration of independence to have been illegal. In this case the ICJ sided with Kosovo. Of course, in order to recognize the ICJ, a country must first voluntarily submit thereto, so it isn't like they can go around making arbitrary rulings whenever they like.

Tugger wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

but they probably have standing under international law, and that outranks Spanish law....

That is not true.... what international law are you speaking of?
There is no "international law" that outranks a sovereign nation's laws.

I happen to life in a country where international law is directly applicable.

Article 25
[Primacy of international law]

The general rules of international law shall be an integral part of federal law. They shall take precedence over the laws and directly create rights and duties for the inhabitants of the federal territory.

International law always breaks national law, weather that nation agrees to it or not, only is it rarely ever being enforced. But try breaking that part of international law layed out in UN resolution 1373 and 1540 and see what happens.

Best regards
Thomas

KLDC10 wrote:

The optics would be very bad for Spain if the government were to attempt to deploy the Guardia Civil or Army into Catalonia this evening. It seems like there are tens of thousands of Catalans on the streets of Barcelona. It could get very messy indeed.

Spanish politics are a strange thing by the standards of most other Western democracies. The Francoist history makes strong nationalism very unpopular. Waving a Spanish flag around in Spain (other than at a FICA game or on a Spanish government building) is an invitation for a beating, or at least a berating. Many -if not most- Spaniards are primarily allegiant to their autonomous community (Cataluna, Extremadura, Andalucia, etc.). While conservatives in most Western democracies favor devolution of governmental power to more local authorities and the reverse for liberals, this alignment is reversed in Spain for this reason.

I agree with many others here that the idea of Catalan independence without the consent of Spain and the EU is a recipe for utter disaster. And yet, Mr. Rajoy went ahead and used force already to stop the referendum. What was he so afraid of? Even if the referendum had passed, the Spanish government could have said "Ha ha, that's cute" and otherwise ignored it, but instead he sent in the Guardia Civil. This is *HORRIBLE* optics for any Spaniard on either side of the debate.

For decades, Mr. Franco used the Guardia Civil as a tool of fear to cow a terrified populace. Since the return of democracy to Spain, the Spanish government has worked *very* hard to restore the public trust and faith in the Guardia Civil, and they did a very good job of it. And then Mr. Rajoy in one fell swoop badly damaged all that work. The image of Spanish citizens being beaten in the street by the Guardia Civil is a page right out of a very horrible history of Spanish fascism. Moreover, I think that these actions will leave a bad taste in the mouth of many Spaniards, even those who do not support Catalan independence. Come the next elections, I suspect Mr. Rajoy will find that his Partido Popular will suffer for these very poorly thought-out decisions, irrespective of the outcome of the Catalan Independence Movement.

DocLightning wrote:

Spanish politics are a strange thing by the standards of most other Western democracies. The Francoist history makes strong nationalism very unpopular. Waving a Spanish flag around in Spain (other than at a FICA game or on a Spanish government building) is an invitation for a beating, or at least a berating. Many -if not most- Spaniards are primarily allegiant to their autonomous community (Cataluna, Extremadura, Andalucia, etc.). While conservatives in most Western democracies favor devolution of governmental power to more local authorities and the reverse for liberals, this alignment is reversed in Spain for this reason.

I agree with many others here that the idea of Catalan independence without the consent of Spain and the EU is a recipe for utter disaster. And yet, Mr. Rajoy went ahead and used force already to stop the referendum. What was he so afraid of? Even if the referendum had passed, the Spanish government could have said "Ha ha, that's cute" and otherwise ignored it, but instead he sent in the Guardia Civil. This is *HORRIBLE* optics for any Spaniard on either side of the debate.

For decades, Mr. Franco used the Guardia Civil as a tool of fear to cow a terrified populace. Since the return of democracy to Spain, the Spanish government has worked *very* hard to restore the public trust and faith in the Guardia Civil, and they did a very good job of it. And then Mr. Rajoy in one fell swoop badly damaged all that work. The image of Spanish citizens being beaten in the street by the Guardia Civil is a page right out of a very horrible history of Spanish fascism. Moreover, I think that these actions will leave a bad taste in the mouth of many Spaniards, even those who do not support Catalan independence. Come the next elections, I suspect Mr. Rajoy will find that his Partido Popular will suffer for these very poorly thought-out decisions, irrespective of the outcome of the Catalan Independence Movement.

An interesting perspective - thanks for sharing. I would just note that it would appear that the government in Madrid has been encouraging more open nationalism of late. Soon after the Catalan referendum, there was a huge pro-unity rally in Madrid. Thousands of Spaniards turned out to wave flags in support of unity. One could take that as a sign of changing attitudes towards nationalism, or else an indication that the situation is dire enough to warrant the abandonment of social norms.

Sending in the Guardia Civil was of course a recipe for disaster. It does not take a genius to figure out that the optics of sending in heavily armed police officers as if Catalonia were some kind of war zone would be terrible. Unfortunately, that salient point appeared to escape Mr Rajoy. As you note, there were other ways to ignore the result of the referendum than to start turfing old ladies out of polling stations and seizing ballot boxes.

On your last point; I'm not sure. I'd like to do some more research here into Spanish attitudes towards Catalan independence and autonomy in general. I.e. do most Spaniards sympathize with the Catalan cause, or are they sick and tired of Catalonia dominating the national conversation and being afforded a more prominent position than other autonomous communities? Looking purely at the preliminary evidence from the recent pro-unity rally, it seems like there are plenty of Spaniards who are willing to demonstrate for unity and in support of their country. And of course, Mr Rajoy's political fortunes will also be affected by the events which are bound to unfold over the next few days. If he manages to keep Spain together, then he could well end up being lauded as a national hero of sorts. Of course he'd be resented in Catalonia, but I doubt the Popular Party is very competitive there to begin with. It could go either way.

tommy1808 wrote:

It is against the Spanish constitution and Spanish law. That does not automatically mean it is "illegal", it may very well be, but Catalan is certainly large enough to invoke self determination, and if they can make that stick, secession would be legal regardless of what Spanish law says.

best regards
Thomas

Well, provide a list of nations that will recognise an independent Catalan (Scotland, surprise, surprise) versus the nations that have said they will not recognise it (which includes most, if not all, EU nations).

How far do you want to take this? I've just declared The People's Republic of Wokingstan. BTW, I'm the president, so you should bow before me.

Well I hope Spain will act swiftly. You can't just have territories breaking free left and right. Should Manhattan also be independent if they decided they wanted to? Where does it end? Also, it's the wrong direction to go in this day and age. It's better to be united than being a lot of small territories without any influence both financially and politically.

787Driver wrote:

Well I hope Spain will act swiftly. You can't just have territories breaking free left and right. Should Manhattan also be independent if they decided they wanted to? Where does it end? Also, it's the wrong direction to go in this day and age. It's better to be united than being a lot of small territories without any influence both financially and politically.

Disagree. It is up to the population of a given place if they want to break away. It should just be done in an informed and properly democratic way, and as a last resort.

VSMUT wrote:

The election was a mess, and can hardly be described as democratic.

Well, the Catalans do have the leaders & parliament they elected themselves. What's happening now is a consequense. In that respect, it is democracy in action. This is a consequense of people not understanding the importance to use their brains when standing in the voting booth. Or not using brains when deciding to not go voting.

Also, the Spanish leaders made horrible errors and could have prevented this from happening. Allow a true referendum. If it's a no, then the independency claim would be buried for at least a generation. If a yes, then ties between Spain and Catalunya would remain very strong, to the benefit of both countries. The way they're handling it now is incomprehensible. This is the 21st century, crap like this really has no place in this world anymore.

So shame on the Spanish leaders, shame on the Catalan leaders and shame on people who disable their brains during elections!

As I said in the first thread, a coup d’etat has taken place, and the leaders need to be arrested, by force if necessary.

People, cannot, undemocratically, state their patch of land is independent of a nation.

The Scottish independence vote is an example of a better run referendum. 12 months of proper debte, followed by a proper poll. No self declared vote, No ballot stuffing, no four week ‘Campaign’.

BestWestern wrote:

The Scottish independence vote is an example of a better run referendum. 12 months of proper debte, followed by a proper poll. No self declared vote, No ballot stuffing, no four week ‘Campaign’.

It also required the approval of the UK's Parliament before it could go ahead. The polar opposite of the situation in Spain.

scbriml wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

It is against the Spanish constitution and Spanish law. That does not automatically mean it is "illegal", it may very well be, but Catalan is certainly large enough to invoke self determination, and if they can make that stick, secession would be legal regardless of what Spanish law says.

best regards
Thomas

Well, provide a list of nations that will recognise an independent Catalan (Scotland, surprise, surprise) versus the nations that have said they will not recognise it (which includes most, if not all, EU nations).

How would that even be relevant? If governments understood laws, many courts would not have anything to do

How far do you want to take this? I've just declared The People's Republic of Wokingstan. BTW, I'm the president, so you should bow before me.

Catalan is a widely recognised semi-autonomous region, and once you have that standing you can go independent. If you can achieve that status for your wok, more power to you ... literally.
It is funny how the same people critizing US right wings hypocrisy every chance they get, do turn around and do exactly the same here.

Did you think Kosovo's and others declarations of independence also didn't have merit? Was it just done to puss off Russia?

Best regards
Thomas

VSMUT wrote:

787Driver wrote:

Well I hope Spain will act swiftly. You can't just have territories breaking free left and right. Should Manhattan also be independent if they decided they wanted to? Where does it end? Also, it's the wrong direction to go in this day and age. It's better to be united than being a lot of small territories without any influence both financially and politically.

Disagree. It is up to the population of a given place if they want to break away. It should just be done in an informed and properly democratic way, and as a last resort.

Disagree. You are actually being undemocratic and maybe you don't even realize it. Let's make an election in all of Spain and ask people if catalonia should be independent. See that would be a democratic election. You have a small minority of people in Spain who wants an independent little state that would never be allowed to join the EU, UN, etc. Independence will not help them. And do you then think that even parts of cities should be allowed to declare themselves as an independent state?

BTW many large companies are already leaving Barcelona.

BestWestern wrote:

As I said in the first thread, a coup d’etat has taken place, and the leaders need to be arrested, by force if necessary.

People, cannot, undemocratically, state their patch of land is independent of a nation.

The Scottish independence vote is an example of a better run referendum. 12 months of proper debte, followed by a proper poll. No self declared vote, No ballot stuffing, no four week ‘Campaign’.

Yeah except UK wouldn't have dared to host the same election today after the brexit vote. So it only works when the government believes it will get the result it wants

Only two votes in parliament. Don't think such major policy shifts should be allowed by such a minor margin. I think such a decision should be taken by 2/3 majority, or by two votes, a simple majority is too volatile and too susiptic to populism and nationalism.

The Scottish independence vote result was accepted as the will of the people. The Catalan ballot stuffing vote was far from accepted.

What has happened in Catalonia is no more than an attempted coup, with the support of Russia.

“Catalan" was the highest-trending hashtag among Twitter accounts linked to Russian influence operations....

Russia should recognize Catalunya.

seahawk wrote:

Russia should recognize Catalunya.

Abkhazia seems to be on course to.

Wait until tourism drops to zero, trade gets messed up, a lot of jobs lost, banks facing a crises and move to Madrid and FCB cannot play in the Spanish League. Then the Catalans may realize this independence act was a big mistake. My fear it is going to get very ugly and possibly deadly to innocents in the next few days.

DFA say Ireland does not recognise Catalan Independence

The Department of Foreign Affairs has said that Ireland does not recognise Catalonia's declaration of Independence.

Spain has stripped the region of its autonomy following its declaration, as well as having sacked Catalan leaders, dissolved the region's parliament and called a regional election for December.

In a statement this afternoon, the department said: "We are all concerned about the crisis in Catalonia. Ireland respects the constitutional and territorial integrity of Spain and we do not accept or recognise the Catalan Unilateral Declaration of Independence.

"The resolution of the current crisis needs to be within Spain's constitutional framework and through Spain's democratic institutions."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1028/91588 ... n-charges/

787Driver wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

787Driver wrote:

Well I hope Spain will act swiftly. You can't just have territories breaking free left and right. Should Manhattan also be independent if they decided they wanted to? Where does it end? Also, it's the wrong direction to go in this day and age. It's better to be united than being a lot of small territories without any influence both financially and politically.

Disagree. It is up to the population of a given place if they want to break away. It should just be done in an informed and properly democratic way, and as a last resort.

Disagree. You are actually being undemocratic and maybe you don't even realize it. Let's make an election in all of Spain and ask people if catalonia should be independent. See that would be a democratic election. You have a small minority of people in Spain who wants an independent little state that would never be allowed to join the EU, UN, etc. Independence will not help them. And do you then think that even parts of cities should be allowed to declare themselves as an independent state?

BTW many large companies are already leaving Barcelona.

First, no, the rest of a country shouldn't decide if Barcelona or Manhattan should be part of a country. Only the population of Barcelona or Manhattan should decide that. It isn't too hard to imagine that the majority of a country decide to sit on the lazy behind and freeload on a single hardworking and highly taxed economy, which is actually remarkably similar to the situation in Spain and Italy over the past weeks. It is the responsibility of the rest of the country to make sure that Catalonia actually wants to remain part of the country, and that shouldn't be done using BS referendums decided by the lazy majority. In other words, Catalonia, Manhattan and Northern Italy should feel that they get a fair deal as well, and if not, they should be in their full right to just leave. Do you really think that the population of Serbia should have been allowed to vote on Kosovan independence? How on earth do you think that would have worked out?

Second, if proper non-biased information campaigns are run prior to the election, then most places wouldn't want to declare independence in the first place. Unfortunately we have seen the exact opposite with the Brexit mess and now in Catalonia.

Finally, if we actually started doing the sensible thing and began splitting up countries according to ethnicity rather than ill-prepared Colonial plans, then we could probably eradicate a majority of conflicts in the world.

787Driver wrote:

You have a small minority of people in Spain who wants an independent little state that would never be allowed to join the EU, UN, etc. Independence will not help them.

The EU doesn't want Spain to split up, but don't think for one moment that they wouldn't invite Catalonia in for discussions about membership as soon as it happened. Catalonia is too big, centrally located and economically important to ignore them. Barcelona is the 4th largest metropolitan area in the EU according to Eurostat. Even without the big banks and corporations, thats a tremendous economy in itself. Now if we were talking Asturias or Navarre, then yes, the EU would probably ignore them.

BestWestern wrote:

What has happened in Catalonia is no more than an attempted coup, with the support of Russia.

“Catalan" was the highest-trending hashtag among Twitter accounts linked to Russian influence operations....

I haven’t read this before (Russia) but it would be a realistic scenario because you could think that Russia has an interest in such disputes for weakening the position of the EU.

VSMUT wrote:

First, no, the rest of a country shouldn't decide if Barcelona or Manhattan should be part of a country. Only the population of Barcelona or Manhattan should decide that. It isn't too hard to imagine that the majority of a country decide to sit on the lazy behind and freeload on a single hardworking and highly taxed economy, which is actually remarkably similar to the situation in Spain and Italy over the past weeks. It is the responsibility of the rest of the country to make sure that Catalonia actually wants to remain part of the country, and that shouldn't be done using BS referendums decided by the lazy majority. In other words, Catalonia, Manhattan and Northern Italy should feel that they get a fair deal as well, and if not, they should be in their full right to just leave. Do you really think that the population of Serbia should have been allowed to vote on Kosovan independence? How on earth do you think that would have worked out?

Second, if proper non-biased information campaigns are run prior to the election, then most places wouldn't want to declare independence in the first place. Unfortunately we have seen the exact opposite with the Brexit mess and now in Catalonia.

Finally, if we actually started doing the sensible thing and began splitting up countries according to ethnicity rather than ill-prepared Colonial plans, then we could probably eradicate a majority of conflicts in the world.

787Driver wrote:

You have a small minority of people in Spain who wants an independent little state that would never be allowed to join the EU, UN, etc. Independence will not help them.

The EU doesn't want Spain to split up, but don't think for one moment that they wouldn't invite Catalonia in for discussions about membership as soon as it happened. Catalonia is too big, centrally located and economically important to ignore them. Barcelona is the 4th largest metropolitan area in the EU according to Eurostat. Even without the big banks and corporations, thats a tremendous economy in itself. Now if we were talking Asturias or Navarre, then yes, the EU would probably ignore them.

First no. Your opinion is way off (with all due respect of course). Then suddenly you could have 10.000+ states in Europe alone when all small towns, cities, municipalities, regions suddenly want to be independent.
Secondly your view is flawed. Most people want to work and have a meaningful life. You'll always find lazy people, but in general thats not what people want. Plus, don't forget that many of the large companies in Catalonia left or are already leaving. Then all of a sudden Catalonia is going to freeride Spain or the EU or at least try. You really have very little solidarity/sympathy for other people in your life or so it seems.

You can't just leave when then going gets a little tough. That's being a coward.

Tell me how you by your logic will ever make the wealthier regions think that things are fair as long as they have to pay more? It's a very shortsighted view. That's not how the world works. You're basically saying that the wealthy regions of any country should be allowed independence if they don't want to bear a larger burden than the poor. Well shame on you.

VSMUT wrote:

The EU doesn't want Spain to split up, but don't think for one moment that they wouldn't invite Catalonia in for discussions about membership as soon as it happened. Catalonia is too big, centrally located and economically important to ignore them. Barcelona is the 4th largest metropolitan area in the EU according to Eurostat. Even without the big banks and corporations, thats a tremendous economy in itself. Now if we were talking Asturias or Navarre, then yes, the EU would probably ignore them.

There is little to discuss. A country can join the EU only if all 28 members agree on the membership. Spain however will vote veto, meaning Catalonia has zero chance of joining.

VSMUT wrote:

First, no, the rest of a country shouldn't decide if Barcelona or Manhattan should be part of a country. Only the population of Barcelona or Manhattan should decide that. It isn't too hard to imagine that the majority of a country decide to sit on the lazy behind and freeload on a single hardworking and highly taxed economy, which is actually remarkably similar to the situation in Spain and Italy over the past weeks. It is the responsibility of the rest of the country to make sure that Catalonia actually wants to remain part of the country, and that shouldn't be done using BS referendums decided by the lazy majority. In other words, Catalonia, Manhattan and Northern Italy should feel that they get a fair deal as well, and if not, they should be in their full right to just leave. Do you really think that the population of Serbia should have been allowed to vote on Kosovan independence? How on earth do you think that would have worked out?

Second, if proper non-biased information campaigns are run prior to the election, then most places wouldn't want to declare independence in the first place. Unfortunately we have seen the exact opposite with the Brexit mess and now in Catalonia.

Finally, if we actually started doing the sensible thing and began splitting up countries according to ethnicity rather than ill-prepared Colonial plans, then we could probably eradicate a majority of conflicts in the world.


The EU doesn't want Spain to split up, but don't think for one moment that they wouldn't invite Catalonia in for discussions about membership as soon as it happened. Catalonia is too big, centrally located and economically important to ignore them. Barcelona is the 4th largest metropolitan area in the EU according to Eurostat. Even without the big banks and corporations, thats a tremendous economy in itself. Now if we were talking Asturias or Navarre, then yes, the EU would probably ignore them.

I guess you are overestimating the economy of Catalonia in case if they split up. Currently, the region accounts for 16% of the population in Spain, and its GDP accounts for 20% of the total GDP of Spain. Thing is, 35% of Catalan exports goes to Spain in the first place. Don't think that number would remain the same if they split up. If they split, at least 25% of Catalan GDP would vanish, and that`s only from the trade that goes with Spain. We have not touched how this independence would impact trade with other countries yet.
Then, Catalonia currently makes a lot of its GDP through international trade just because they are a part of Spain. Being a part of a strong economy (Spain) would be a massive boast to help Catalonia makes more money. A simple example, I spent a month in Spain in 2014 for my vacation, and I spent around 30,000 euros in Barcelona alone. Had Barcelona not been a part of Spain, I wouldn't have visited it, and I wouldn't have spent my money there. It would be a lot less attractive. This is just a simple example. This is very similar to Calexit. The difference is that most Californians are smart enough to be willing to vote for a no. Economically, there's a lot to lose than to gain by leaving a strong economy (US or Spain).


Catalonia wouldn't be able to join EU if Spain does not allow it, and believe me, they wouldn't allow it. If they did and let it happen that easily, then they should be expecting other regions to ask for independence as well. That`s something Spain wouldn`t be happy with.

Last thing, what do you mean that it would be better off if countries should be splitting up based on ethnicity? How does that solve any problem? If anything, that's very inefficient at achieving anything !

VSMUT, I think you just does not understand how EU works. If Catalonia tries to break illegally from Spain, there is zero chance to join EU. You will see tourism drop and companies move away, as the banks are already doing.

Don't you think that the CUP is a red flag for EU ?

I doubt tourism will be affected that much in the long run.

It can only have some negative effects if the Spanish or different countries put up tolls and block the banks to make everyday life as difficult as possible. The media perception of such alone will of course hurt tourism. The clamping down on Greece over not paying up already raised criticism. Doing this will come at a significant political cost. This is an internal Spanish issue. They should resolve that as good as they can. Scotland did it much better. The Eu should not be used as a whip to keep everyone in line politically. It is like that on every political level. Or to bully small member states. I look at you Spain. At the same time people have been selling the EU as the future and only future. Everyone else is not even worth talking to. I don't think different countries have to automatically right now take the independence for granted. But the EU should not be used a political instrument to force one solution or another to this problem.

What is the real story here? It is up to the people of a region if they want to be part of a country or not. If there will no tourism and Catalonians going to starve as suggested here, it is their choice.

IMHO dissolving the regional government and prosecuting regional leaders will only lead to a bigger conflict. Giving more autonomy or pumping more federal funds may buy some more time, but this issue will come up again.

If EU thinks this will lead the collapse of the union, change the rules to grant automatic membership to any breakaway region. Union will be intact.

VSMUT wrote:

Finally, if we actually started doing the sensible thing and began splitting up countries according to ethnicity rather than ill-prepared Colonial plans, then we could probably eradicate a majority of conflicts in the world.

How on earth do you think this? How do you decided on that split, draw it on map? Do you know how many overlaying regions are settled by ad claimed by various parties (ethnic, religious, historic)? This has ALWAYS been one of the primary drivers of conflict in the world. Smaller communities warred at least as much as larger nation-states.

Tugg

Anti-separatist supporters plan big demonstration in Catalonia

Activists are organising themselves against Catalan independence and calling on others in the region to take to the streets.

Catalonia's Declaration of Independence has caused widespread anger amongst many people in the region who want to remain part of Spain.

Polls suggest unionists make up the majority.

Activists are now organising themselves and calling on all Catalan Spaniards to take to the streets on Sunday.

This sector of Catalonia is often referred to as the 'silent majority'.

http://news.sky.com/story/anti-separati ... a-11103413