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Dutchy
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America's role in the world

Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:09 am

With these many threads about Trump and all his incidents, he is causing. I don't want to put any more time in those incidents, not interested in those anymore, so I don't react to those anymore. What I am interested in is predictions of how America's role in the world is changing because of Trump, or what I think, America's declining role in the world is being accelerated by Trump.

America's role has been dwindling since the end of the cold war. You could see it in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Article 5 was triggered of the NATO manifest to help America in his time of need in Afghanistan. America wasn't followed by the vast majority of countries into Iraq. Most countries wanted to have a diplomatic solution or thought, rightfully, the problem was contained. Most noteworthy was the Powell presentation in the UNSC. The thrust in the US diplomacy was given quite a dent. And with the financial crisis of 2007, originating in the USA, wasn't a gift the world would like to receive. The Bush jr. years were a disaster diplomacy wise for the US. Barack Obama did his best to work together with the rest of the world. Now we have Trump whom seems to determined to alienate the traditional countries whom used to share America's values. To leave the constant insult aside, you can see it with abandoning the Iran accords, the Paris agreement etc. The world was united with that, but now America has spit off. America is even abandoning its position on traditional trade relationship And is trying to be more cozy with countries like North Korea and especially Russia. The German minister of foreign affairs says, rightfully so, that America under Trump can't be trusted anymore. That is quite a feat to break down strong relations within a year.

Now you can see the EU and China taking a stand against the US on trade. The EU is more and more going alone on foreign relations in the world and perhaps more on defense.

My prediction is that the role of the USA as a leader will be over and if this direction continues the USA will find itself irrelevant in the world. That in itself will have major implications on the USA economy and the world order. Regardless of what the US does, this will be China's century. To counterbalance China's autocratic regime, we need a force to move the world towards more free and prosperous world. I think the EU will be forced to take this role and will draw the EU more together with a more integrated foreign policy and on defense. Perhaps making NATO more irrelevant. I think Canada will more or less be associated with this, as will New Zealand and Australia. I think that will be a good role for the EU, not all this internal hassle, but the view more external.

I am interested in what you think will happen in 5 or 10 years on the world stage.
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:19 am

5 to 10 years?

China’s economy will stagnate as manufacturing investments go to Vietnam and other cheaper countries. The EU will contract as member states go bankrupt. The United States will remain the sole superpower. Hillary Clinton will not be President.
 
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zkojq
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:49 pm

The US is essentially ungovernable and it's debt is skyrocketing. That doesn't bode well for maintaining their status in the world.

Russia is only a superpower due to its energy reserves and military hardware left over from the Cold War. Once their energy reserves are used up or become irrelevant, the country will wither away. Their influence will too, though their leaders will nodoubt still do some Georgia/Crimea style muscle flexing every now and again.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/gazp ... ?r=UK&IR=T


EU is well run and it's economic influence will nodoubt rise, however it's leaders always do everything they can to make sure that the Union doesn't flex it's political muscle on the International Stage. Individual countries (eg France and Britain) definitely do though.
 
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Berevoff
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:38 pm

Gosh I hope so. Let China take the lead and be the military and political leader of the World for a while.

Thanks to our geography we're pretty safe. It'll be better for everyone.
 
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RetroRoo
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:15 pm

Berevoff wrote:
Gosh I hope so. Let China take the lead and be the military and political leader of the World for a while.

Thanks to our geography we're pretty safe. It'll be better for everyone.


The United States is the greatest force for good this world has ever known. This is why the current occupant of the White House is so dangerous to everyone cheering on America's global influence. He wants to clear the field and return to a pre-WWI isolationism. The power vacuum is already being filled by others, and it's emboldening rival powers to exert influence.

We see it here in the Asia-Pacific region, with China spending huge sums in Australia's neighbourhood to gain a strategic foothold. Don't get me started on Huawei and the like.

WWII expanded America's footprint and set the stage for the current balance of global power. America's allies cannot properly fill the gap the US is leaving behind - but China and Russia certainly can.

Oh! And it's high time that other significant and populous countries like India and Brazil got off the fence, thankyouverymuch. My country only has a population of 25 million, we're a little bit overextended.

/Rant
 
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Berevoff
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:51 pm

RetroRoo wrote:
Berevoff wrote:
Gosh I hope so. Let China take the lead and be the military and political leader of the World for a while.

Thanks to our geography we're pretty safe. It'll be better for everyone.


The United States is the greatest force for good this world has ever known. This is why the current occupant of the White House is so dangerous to everyone cheering on America's global influence. He wants to clear the field and return to a pre-WWI isolationism. The power vacuum is already being filled by others, and it's emboldening rival powers to exert influence.

We see it here in the Asia-Pacific region, with China spending huge sums in Australia's neighbourhood to gain a strategic foothold. Don't get me started on Huawei and the like.

WWII expanded America's footprint and set the stage for the current balance of global power. America's allies cannot properly fill the gap the US is leaving behind - but China and Russia certainly can.

Oh! And it's high time that other significant and populous countries like India and Brazil got off the fence, thankyouverymuch. My country only has a population of 25 million, we're a little bit overextended.

/Rant


And that's a great thing. Its what everyone has wanted since the end of the Cold War. The election of Trump is delivering that wish to them- to make the USA go away on the global stage. The USA is a terrible country that puts its nose in everyone's business, remember? Them taking a back seat and letting China, India, or whoever wants to control the ocean and global economy is a good thing. Get those war-mongering Americans out and let the Chinese navy start patrolling the world's hot spots. They'll be better at dealing with international conflicts because they can act without all this political infighting we see in the USA.

When you want a nation to go away and stop doing something you don't also get to dictate how they do that. This is what happens. I guess since we're so marginalized we should stop supporting NATO and rely on our natural borders to protect us and let Europe be the strong unified body they claim to be if someone challenges their sovereignty (again).
 
WIederling
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Re: America's role in the world

Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:13 am

VTKillarney wrote:
5 to 10 years?

China’s economy will stagnate as manufacturing investments go to Vietnam and other cheaper countries. The EU will contract as member states go bankrupt. The United States will remain the sole superpower. Hillary Clinton will not be President.


The US standing depends on the Dollar as primary trade currency.
The US goes to war ( subversive or open ) for keeping this as is.

As long as that stands they can print money to no end and the Dollar will inflate against the global economy. ( i.e. not visibly.)

If China can expand the land based silk road maritime power projection will turn into a blunt instrument.

The current run of things IMU indicates that those in power on the US throne ( not the POTUS one ) are getting more desperate by the hour.
 
WIederling
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Re: America's role in the world

Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:18 am

RetroRoo wrote:
The United States is the greatest force for good this world has ever known.


As long as we had a bi/multi polar arrangement the US had to keep up the superficial pretense. In a way that worked.
Not for Vietnam, Iraq, Iran,...
On the other hand : the US has been very busy to their adversaries in the "right light". Even if that require false flag ops
and massive provocations.

The s*it hit the fan when some imbeciles ( the "New American Century" megalomaniacs*) thought
that they now owned the world, to do with as they deemed fit, no opposition.
What really changed with Trump is that all pretense has been dropped.
The basic intent has not changed a tiny bit since ~1935.

*look at personnel continuity from Reagan over the Bush41,Bush43 to Trump administrations.
 
Klaus
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Re: America's role in the world

Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:07 pm

RetroRoo wrote:
The United States is the greatest force for good this world has ever known.


That has always just been an aspiration; The actual USA sometimes came close to it but increasingly in recent years it veered very far away from it. The horrific human rights abuses deliberately started during the Iraq war haven't even ceased to this very day, deliberately kept going by Congress. Trump has now dropped all pretenses and he has now openly shown that it's Vladimir Putin holding his leash, everybody else (including the USA) be damned.

During the Bush / Cheney / Rumsfeld years many around the world had had retained some hope that this degradation of US policies might just have been a temporary slip, but Trump has made clear that this is in fact America now (the Republicans did their worst to stunt even Obama's terms – they committed to that on election night 2008 and brutally executed on it with zero regard to the country or to the rest of the world).

The USA have now officially abdicated as the leading force of the free world (or even just as a member!). It becomes necessary that others step up into leadership. And at this time, the European Union is that leading force, backed more by ideals, economic power and international trust in its reliability and its support for the rule of law than by military force or a overwhelming nuclear arsenal (which isn't worth that much outside of already escalated military conflicts as we've seen).

It remains to be seen when or whether at all the USA will recover from this eventually, but the automatic post-WWII deference to the USA by free democracies around the world is pretty much destroyed now, following the damage already done by the previous republican administration and now Trump's coup de grâce.
 
chimborazo
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Re: America's role in the world

Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:46 pm

America's role in the world (politically) seems to be to go around saying everyone should be "free like us" (whatever that means). It generally seems to involve invading countries thousands of miles away and directly or indirectly causing the deaths and displacements of hundreds of thousands of people. And then saying countries like Russia are the bad guys. The hypocrisy is mind-boggling. Combined with a well-documented history of undermining legitimate governments and spying on "allies".

The second world war is long gone - a great job, well done. But the world is different now.

Seriously: what is so good about many thousands of "free" Americans dying or disabled/psychologically damaged in other countries for no benefit to anyone?

On another note, the disparity between rich and poor for a so-called first world country, combined with the health care situation is a travesty.

I've just been on holiday to USA again because I like the place and the people (although not LA - if ever there was an example of needing to sort out your own soil before invading other lands, this was it. The whole place stinks of piss and weed). But the foreign policy absolutely sucks.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:57 am

chimborazo wrote:
America's role in the world (politically) seems to be to go around saying everyone should be "free like us" (whatever that means). It generally seems to involve invading countries thousands of miles away and directly or indirectly causing the deaths and displacements of hundreds of thousands of people. And then saying countries like Russia are the bad guys. The hypocrisy is mind-boggling. Combined with a well-documented history of undermining legitimate governments and spying on "allies".

The second world war is long gone - a great job, well done. But the world is different now.

Seriously: what is so good about many thousands of "free" Americans dying or disabled/psychologically damaged in other countries for no benefit to anyone?

On another note, the disparity between rich and poor for a so-called first world country, combined with the health care situation is a travesty.

I've just been on holiday to USA again because I like the place and the people (although not LA - if ever there was an example of needing to sort out your own soil before invading other lands, this was it. The whole place stinks of piss and weed). But the foreign policy absolutely sucks.


Lol - I had to leave because of its people, especially when my Evangelical Christian extended family were threatening to disown my (then) 14 year old cousin when she came out of the closet. Then again, if I was Italian, the same thing would have happened (Italians absolutely HATE gay people - at least the US isn't run by the Vatican and their brain dead zombie-like sheeple).
 
Flighty
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:10 pm

The USA is doing fine and can afford to treat its own citizens fairly instead of focusing on the fragile feelings of the global elite / rich whiners. Their use of the global poor as human shields for their moralizing is beneath contempt. Believe me when I say global rich care nothing about the unrich.

But the problem is, global elite are subordinate to ordinary American voters. This is the pain we are hearing about. Control and sovereignty being torn from entitled global swells’ hands. The need for $500/hr psychologists will soar until this ends.

In the long term, democracy isn’t robust to calibration by the rich, and it will probably fail.
 
jetero
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:12 pm

Flighty wrote:
The USA is doing fine and can afford to treat its own citizens fairly instead of focusing on the fragile feelings of the global elite / rich whiners. Their use of the global poor as human shields for their moralizing is beneath contempt. Believe me when I say global rich care nothing about the unrich.

But the problem is, global elite are subordinate to ordinary American voters. This is the pain we are hearing about. Control and sovereignty being torn from entitled global swells’ hands. The need for $500/hr psychologists will soar until this ends.

In the long term, democracy isn’t robust to calibration by the rich, and it will probably fail.


Well that was a truly inedible word salad. Anybody other than Flighty have the first clue as to what it meant?
 
Flighty
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:33 pm

What it meant is that the USA versus world narrative is really about Trump versus the Establishment. The Establishment controls most countries and represents global rich interests. This group became separated from the true source of their power, and largely their wealth as well- the American voter. So I am agreeing that the people who speak for “the world” think Trump is ghastly. That is a two way street, as the US voter thinks these “consensus establishment” people are ghastly.
 
jetero
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:23 pm

Flighty wrote:
What it meant is that the USA versus world narrative is really about Trump versus the Establishment. The Establishment controls most countries and represents global rich interests. This group became separated from the true source of their power, and largely their wealth as well- the American voter. So I am agreeing that the people who speak for “the world” think Trump is ghastly. That is a two way street, as the US voter thinks these “consensus establishment” people are ghastly.


The "true source of power" of the "Establishment" of "Global Rich Interests" is "the American voter"?

More gobbledygook.
 
787Driver
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:47 am

I just fear that China will be even more reckless than the US the more power they get, attacking Taiwan, and maybe other neighboring countries. And what will those aircraft carriers be used for? Tbh, it’s very important that the US/EU work very closely together to counter China in the future. I’m looking past Donald Trump of course.
 
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Aesma
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:28 am

Flighty wrote:
What it meant is that the USA versus world narrative is really about Trump versus the Establishment. The Establishment controls most countries and represents global rich interests. This group became separated from the true source of their power, and largely their wealth as well- the American voter. So I am agreeing that the people who speak for “the world” think Trump is ghastly. That is a two way street, as the US voter thinks these “consensus establishment” people are ghastly.


Trump is a global rich elite whatever and does nothing to help the poor in his country, nothing at all. He's barely pretending to do it.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:54 am

Berevoff wrote:
Gosh I hope so. Let China take the lead and be the military and political leader of the World for a while.

Thanks to our geography we're pretty safe. It'll be better for everyone.


Except for the entirety of South East asia.

Also, can we invoke article 5 and have our allies neutralize Russia's cyber capabilities while we have our election? Trump himself should be reason enough to invoke it.
 
Flighty
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:13 am

jetero wrote:
Flighty wrote:
What it meant is that the USA versus world narrative is really about Trump versus the Establishment. The Establishment controls most countries and represents global rich interests. This group became separated from the true source of their power, and largely their wealth as well- the American voter. So I am agreeing that the people who speak for “the world” think Trump is ghastly. That is a two way street, as the US voter thinks these “consensus establishment” people are ghastly.


The "true source of power" of the "Establishment" of "Global Rich Interests" is "the American voter"?

More gobbledygook.


Ugh. Let me spell this out more for you. The American voter elects US Congress and the US President. They control the worlds oceans, air and space more or less. They are the main governing body in world trade also - with overseas cronies.

World leaders and the US/global rich are part of a friendship network. Social media documents this very well.

You could argue that all nations are equal, or that the EU is a peer of the US in geopolitics. I argue the EU is a client of the US in geopolitics, as is Latin America and parts of Asia. Everything except Russia, China, Iran, Syria, North Korea. Although Chinas source of wealth has again been the US voter, and we do retain some economic leverage there. So not just gobbledygook. The Us really has been the fulcrum of the past century, and it is an elected government. Let’s again see if the triads of China are preferable as we move away from US importance and more toward where you fit in within the Chinese mafia. Most likely we will all figure among the peasantry.
 
czechcool
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:10 pm

I dont think this will be Chines century. China or any other country wont be able to dominate the way US did in 20th century or Britain in 19the century.
I also dont believe that US is in terminal decline as world leading power and nation. The USA in all likelihood will stay as most importent country well into this century and probably beyond. Because of its immense power it will also never become irrelevant or go away as some people from time to like time predict. Americas power is really founded on unique sets of foundantions that wont be easly replicated by another country

What sets US apart:
Geographical location-acces to two most importent world oceans, US completely dominates its region and share border with two friendly countries. All the other great power are located in Euroasia. China is surrended by powerful neighborhoods which will likely hedge against it and do lots of heavy lifting for America. US is something like huge insland off the coast of Euroasia and can play countries against each others. Just like British always did in Europe. It can also cause troubles and instability in Euroasia without suffering main consequnces-like instability in Middle East and miggration cricis which stormed Europe.

English languag and soft power-China or any country will likely never match this. Just the fact that main language in US is also most importent language globaly give it huge adventage over others like China or Russia. EU might come close to this, but its really Britain which boost biggist soft power there also mainly because of English language.

Geographical size and population size-US is third biggist country in the world based on population and geographical size. This alone mean that US will always have importent role to play in World even if it was impoverish country. China or Indian have been always regarded as influencial countries even though they have been very poor. Also Russia which has economy of Italy play major role in international politics.

Like Russia US has the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world. This also mean that US will never ceases to be major power. All you need to do is to look at Russia in 1990s when it was in huge economical and political turmoil but it was still regarded as importent world power.

All in all US would be major world power even if it was in very bad shape economically, politicaly and military which of course is not the case nowadays and there are not many indication that predict it will be case anytime soon. It has still huge advantage military, has worlds largest economy and one of the largest GDP per capacity and is one of the most economically competative countries.

China will likely overcome US economy in size quite soon. It has already worlds largest GDP PPP but it wont automaticaly mean that China will also become main global power overnight. US became worlds largest economy in second half of 19the centry but it wasnt untill and of WW2 when it become worlds superpower from Britain. But its unlikely that US will be in such a difficult situation like post war Britain anytime soon so we will likely end up this century with China, US, India and possibly EU as main power centers, although US will probably still be first among them.
 
Flighty
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:53 pm

Well to be fair I think the EU could be a peer of the USA, it’s just not right now In terms of geopolitics. In terms of economy, yes. Thr EU is a peer of the US. The world agreed upon a set of norms and institutions largely invented by, and located in, the US. This is a tinfoil hat theory?! I am a crackpot?!

China is rising and will have power about as strong as the US, in other words really f’ing strong. They will attract many client states to their umbrella - those states will work for (the) China(ese Mafia) and will be only transactional with the US. It might be 100+ countries soon. It might be all of Africa.

Later on, India’s wealth and power will soar, and they will never accept anything but a peer relationship with China (both as superpowers). India will have huge wealth and security power. Enough to make Russia nothing but a joke. India be probably the third global mega power by 2080 or so. So I’m not saying the US are some superior race. Not at all. I am mentioning obvious basic facts that, while open to inquiry, are pretty consensus. And by the way Europe was the most powerful continent for many years too.
 
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Berevoff
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Re: America's role in the world

Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:23 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Berevoff wrote:
Gosh I hope so. Let China take the lead and be the military and political leader of the World for a while.

Thanks to our geography we're pretty safe. It'll be better for everyone.


Except for the entirety of South East asia.


That's not our problem anymore. We learned our lesson with Vietnam, remember. Let China patrol the seas from now on. The USA won't be there to muck it all up.

They won't have the war monger or greedy capitalist attitude the USA has.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: America's role in the world

Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:34 am

Berevoff wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Berevoff wrote:
Gosh I hope so. Let China take the lead and be the military and political leader of the World for a while.

Thanks to our geography we're pretty safe. It'll be better for everyone.


Except for the entirety of South East asia.


That's not our problem anymore. We learned our lesson with Vietnam, remember. Let China patrol the seas from now on. The USA won't be there to muck it all up.

They won't have the war monger or greedy capitalist attitude the USA has.


Are you kidding me??? It's one of the most aggressive and materialistic countries I've ever set foot in. They make Americans look like ascetic monks.

Just because they call their selves "communist" does not mean they live up to "communist" ideals.
 
mdavies06
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Re: America's role in the world

Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:42 am

Jouhou wrote:
Berevoff wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Except for the entirety of South East asia.


That's not our problem anymore. We learned our lesson with Vietnam, remember. Let China patrol the seas from now on. The USA won't be there to muck it all up.

They won't have the war monger or greedy capitalist attitude the USA has.


Are you kidding me??? It's one of the most aggressive and materialistic countries I've ever set foot in. They make Americans look like ascetic monks.

Just because they call their selves "communist" does not mean they live up to "communist" ideals.


The USA guards but do not invade other countries for the purpose of actually colonising the lands and populate their own people into them though. This is the key difference between USA patrolling overseas and the Russian and Chinese patrolling overseas.

If the USA withdraws from Europe, the Middle East and East Asia, I give you 3 years before Russia and China take over all of Europe, Middle East and all of East Asia. Russia and China are aggressive military states like the Nazi regime in the 1930s. They are not simply fake democratic or socialist states. China claims they are allowed to control all the sea up to say 20km from the Malaysia coast to the South and Japanese coast to the East, so what is there to stop China invading all of East Asia.

I know most Americans do not care if the rest of the world is under the control of states that resemble those from the novel '1984', but I think at least the thought of it should frighten some Americans, don't you think?
 
tommy1808
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Re: America's role in the world

Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:15 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
If the USA withdraws from Europe, the Middle East and East Asia, I give you 3 years before Russia


With what Army? Ukraine or Georgia are the limit of their capability. They are outgunned, outmanned and outspent several times over by Europe alone.

Best regards
Thomas
 
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Berevoff
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Re: America's role in the world

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:19 am

Jouhou wrote:
Berevoff wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Except for the entirety of South East asia.


That's not our problem anymore. We learned our lesson with Vietnam, remember. Let China patrol the seas from now on. The USA won't be there to muck it all up.

They won't have the war monger or greedy capitalist attitude the USA has.


Are you kidding me??? It's one of the most aggressive and materialistic countries I've ever set foot in. They make Americans look like ascetic monks.

Just because they call their selves "communist" does not mean they live up to "communist" ideals.


Of course I'm being a bit tongue in cheek. For decades many people have been decrying the MO of the way the Americans do business on the world stage. They've been criticizing it left and right and calling for us to get our nose out of everyone's business. Stop being the worlds policeman they say.

And then Trump came along. Now they're saying we're finished. This guy wants to pull out of everything and isolate! He's upsetting global order! They're baffled that we are "retreating from the world stage" and "becoming irrelevant globally" and "have shown we're not reliable." WELL WHAT DO YOU WANT?! You can't scream for us to stop doing what we're doing and then dictate how we do that or what happens afterwards. This is what you always wanted. Take the lead......
 
anrec80
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Re: America's role in the world

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:27 am

tommy1808 wrote:
With what Army? Ukraine or Georgia are the limit of their capability. They are outgunned, outmanned and outspent several times over by Europe alone.

Best regards
Thomas


Never underestimate your adversary. And keep in mind - Russian military always takes on new arms (and not only strategic), new combat techniques, new communications, etc. Operation in Georgia in 2008 was done in a sort of oversimplified manner, agree. Control over the situation in Crimea (and after th e polls its acceptance into Russia), however, was taken in 2014 without a single shot fired. ISIS in Syria is a a whole new kind and much tougher enemy than Ukraine, and they managed to re-equip Syrian military, organize communications with (and within) Syrian and Iranian militaries. They also have now a military police that can efficiently restore order in such conditions as Syrian conflict. Experience in humanitarian operations.

And Ukraine of course is not a limit to their capabilities. Nobody ever had any doubts that Russia is capable to take over Ukraine in a matter of days, especially in Ukraine. This Ukraine is simply not needed by anyone at all.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: America's role in the world

Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:26 am

Berevoff wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Berevoff wrote:

That's not our problem anymore. We learned our lesson with Vietnam, remember. Let China patrol the seas from now on. The USA won't be there to muck it all up.

They won't have the war monger or greedy capitalist attitude the USA has.


Are you kidding me??? It's one of the most aggressive and materialistic countries I've ever set foot in. They make Americans look like ascetic monks.

Just because they call their selves "communist" does not mean they live up to "communist" ideals.


Of course I'm being a bit tongue in cheek. For decades many people have been decrying the MO of the way the Americans do business on the world stage. They've been criticizing it left and right and calling for us to get our nose out of everyone's business. Stop being the worlds policeman they say.

And then Trump came along. Now they're saying we're finished. This guy wants to pull out of everything and isolate! He's upsetting global order! They're baffled that we are "retreating from the world stage" and "becoming irrelevant globally" and "have shown we're not reliable." WELL WHAT DO YOU WANT?! You can't scream for us to stop doing what we're doing and then dictate how we do that or what happens afterwards. This is what you always wanted. Take the lead......


Also from my experience in china: laws don't get enforced, the only thing that matters is deference to Authority. What Trump wants out of his presidency is basically what chinese communist party officials have. To hell with the law, as long as you bow before the almighty Trump.

That's not freedom man, that's the road to corruption and authoritarianism. Let's not be like China.
 
jetero
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Re: America's role in the world

Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:37 am

anrec80 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
With what Army? Ukraine or Georgia are the limit of their capability. They are outgunned, outmanned and outspent several times over by Europe alone.

Best regards
Thomas


Never underestimate your adversary. And keep in mind - Russian military always takes on new arms (and not only strategic), new combat techniques, new communications, etc. Operation in Georgia in 2008 was done in a sort of oversimplified manner, agree. Control over the situation in Crimea (and after th e polls its acceptance into Russia), however, was taken in 2014 without a single shot fired. ISIS in Syria is a a whole new kind and much tougher enemy than Ukraine, and they managed to re-equip Syrian military, organize communications with (and within) Syrian and Iranian militaries. They also have now a military police that can efficiently restore order in such conditions as Syrian conflict. Experience in humanitarian operations.

And Ukraine of course is not a limit to their capabilities. Nobody ever had any doubts that Russia is capable to take over Ukraine in a matter of days, especially in Ukraine. This Ukraine is simply not needed by anyone at all.


Wow I haven’t been paying much attention to the Euro threads, come across you here and there, disagreed, of course, but now I see you are a special one. You’re an outright partisan! Hope that works out for you—I admire your confidence.
 
tommy1808
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Re: America's role in the world

Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:14 am

anrec80 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
With what Army? Ukraine or Georgia are the limit of their capability. They are outgunned, outmanned and outspent several times over by Europe alone.

Best regards
Thomas


Never underestimate your adversary. .


Exactly... and never take on an adversary that is several times bigger than you in each and every category but nukes. You have enough to defend yourself, you don´t have enough to fight any significant fight at the end of any logistics string.

Control over the situation in Crimea (and after th e polls its acceptance into Russia), however, was taken in 2014 without a single shot fired.


Russia can´t hold elections in Ukraine. Some fake poll doesn´t make occupation legal.

ISIS in Syria is a a whole new kind and much tougher enemy than Ukraine


wohooo.... an enemy mostly consisting of light infantry troops forced into service, with no friends in the world, no steady supply line, nowhere to go and no way to strike back isn´t a tough enemy if you disregard all concerns for civilian populations, and we know the Russian and Syrian Army truly excel at that. Three is just a small circle of nations that fire ballistic missiles against civilians, Russia is one of them.

They quality of Russian troops was very evident with Putin mercenaries and their fate. Did they get proper burials or are they still fertilizer in Syria?
Even in Ukraine your armed forces performance was so ridiculous bad that your operations stopped and folded before they made it beyond a nuance, despite bringing "advanced" Russian weapons and giving fire support from inside Russia where Ukraine wouldn´t shoot back, so you don´t have an excuse for a full on invasion. Even that part of the plan didn´t work. Those "advanced" weapons are by the way how we know that regular Russian troops got their ass handed to them by one of the most run-down armies in the world. From the burned out wrecks. It is almost surprising that you managed to shot down MH17, but then again you made sure that no Russia aircraft was anywhere near by for you to accidentally shoot down. That brilliant operation was carried out so incompetent that we even know where and when the TELAR came from. Heck, you didn´t even move it under the cover of darkness.

Your armed forces are putting so much effort into unconventional warfare for the same reason North Korea does: knowing that you have the chance of an ice cube in hell if you went up against anything that isn´t at least 2 levels below being a peer.

The only defense one needs against Russia today is cutting them off the Internet and seize Russian Organized crimes money. After all state and organized crime is the same in Russia..

best regards
Thomas
 
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Dutchy
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Re: America's role in the world

Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:51 am

anrec80 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
With what Army? Ukraine or Georgia are the limit of their capability. They are outgunned, outmanned and outspent several times over by Europe alone.

Best regards
Thomas


Never underestimate your adversary. And keep in mind - Russian military always takes on new arms (and not only strategic), new combat techniques, new communications, etc. Operation in Georgia in 2008 was done in a sort of oversimplified manner, agree. Control over the situation in Crimea (and after th e polls its acceptance into Russia), however, was taken in 2014 without a single shot fired. ISIS in Syria is a a whole new kind and much tougher enemy than Ukraine, and they managed to re-equip Syrian military, organize communications with (and within) Syrian and Iranian militaries. They also have now a military police that can efficiently restore order in such conditions as Syrian conflict. Experience in humanitarian operations.

And Ukraine of course is not a limit to their capabilities. Nobody ever had any doubts that Russia is capable to take over Ukraine in a matter of days, especially in Ukraine. This Ukraine is simply not needed by anyone at all.


Are you going to derail every topic to push your own great Russian agenda? Russia is unimportant in the great scheme of things.
 
WIederling
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Re: America's role in the world

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:58 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
I know most Americans do not care if the rest of the world is under the control of states that resemble those from the novel '1984', ..


How should they be able to even know or understand that.
In a way they live in a variation on 1984. one with much more hidden perfidy.

We've always been at war with ..
 
BarfBag
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Re: America's role in the world

Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:54 pm

RetroRoo wrote:
Oh! And it's high time that other significant and populous countries like India and Brazil got off the fence, thankyouverymuch.

India isn't sitting on the fence. We are looking after OUR interests.

Here's the thing about the global power order - it's largely what the world looked like in 1945 . It bears no relation to 2018, at all. The P5 today consists of:
a) One global superpower that's a free market democracy (hold your Trump jokes though)
b) One rising power that's a totalitarian state
c) One has-been totalitarian superpower still large geographically, but beset by problems
d/e) Two small European countries that were once major powers, but now have peers in Europe and Asia (i.e. Germany and Japan).

Only 2 of those 5 command substantial presence in today and tomorrow's world. The global structures built around them will never suit the purpose.
Flighty wrote:
Later on, India’s wealth and power will soar, and they will never accept anything but a peer relationship with China (both as superpowers). India will have huge wealth and security power. Enough to make Russia nothing but a joke. India be probably the third global mega power by 2080 or so. So I’m not saying the US are some superior race. Not at all. I am mentioning obvious basic facts that, while open to inquiry, are pretty consensus. And by the way Europe was the most powerful continent for many years too.

India currently has a PPP GDP of over $10 trillion as of 2018, up from ~$3 trillion in 2007-08, adding approximately $1.2 trillion in PPP terms a year (i.e. we add an entire Pakistan-sized economy to our GDP, each year). We will likely overtake the US in the mid/late 2020s. In nominal GDP terms, India may be a quarter of the Eurozone in *size* , but we add more *incremental* economic output than the entire Eurozone already, and also half as much as incremental USA GDP growth, with a much smaller GDP on our part:
Image

In my view, India will do very little with the current global power structure because it doesn't suit us. It's built to serve the world power equation as of 1945. We have no permanent presence in the UNSC, ICJ, NSG, NPT, or any other major setup. And no, we're not going to sign on current terms. That's nonsensical. For example, a country with an active ICBM and SSBN system in service isn't going to pretend it has no nuclear weapons, for the sake of NPT. That sort of silliness is the direct consequence of the current world order having remained static in its view. It's not our job to fix it on someone else's terms. We'll simply continue to do what we, and the Chinese, did for so long (until they pivoted to a more aggressive position under Xi) - "keep quiet and bide your time until you are really strong, let others expend their energy".
 
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trpmb6
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Re: America's role in the world

Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:09 pm

BarfBag wrote:
In my view, India will do very little with the current global power structure because it doesn't suit us. It's built to serve the world power equation as of 1945. We have no permanent presence in the UNSC, ICJ, NSG, NPT, or any other major setup. And no, we're not going to sign on current terms. That's nonsensical. For example, a country with an active ICBM and SSBN system in service isn't going to pretend it has no nuclear weapons, for the sake of NPT. That sort of silliness is the direct consequence of the current world order having remained static in its view. It's not our job to fix it on someone else's terms. We'll simply continue to do what we, and the Chinese, did for so long (until they pivoted to a more aggressive position under Xi) - "keep quiet and bide your time until you are really strong, let others expend their energy".


This is a really good take. Being world police doesn't necessarily benefit the country doing the policing. Particularly in the last couple of decades. The united states really hasn't gained anything. More than likely they've lost in various measurable ways.

India, meanwhile, continues to grow and grow. Minding their own business. Not a bad strategy.

Now if you could just figure out the pollution side of being a fast growing economy... (not a personal attack, and i'm sure my US view is skewed by sensational news depicting the worst aspects)
 
BarfBag
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Re: America's role in the world

Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:25 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Now if you could just figure out the pollution side of being a fast growing economy... (not a personal attack, and i'm sure my US view is skewed by sensational news depicting the worst aspects)

Pretty much everyone pollutes a lot during the fast growth phase. The US did, UK did, China was way over the top at it. London was a mess once. Seoul was a mess not long ago. And then they get rich enough to control the clean technology that lets them clean up the act. There's no point in buying expensive clean tech from others - that's a commercial play. Growth is driven by control of technology and industrial capabilities, and applying that to ones own growth.

Here's an example: India was a nobody in the solar energy world until about 2014. Since then, we have doubled our solar power installed capacity every single year. In 2017-18, we added more solar power installed capacity than US and all of Western Europe combined.

And here's another example: in 2002, New Delhi had no metro system at all. As of 2018, once the remainder of Phase 3 is done, Delhi Metro system will match the London Underground and New York Subway in system length (but not yet in passenger volume). By 2022, when Phase 4 is done, Delhi will have probably the 3rd largest network in length and passenger terms after Beijing and Shanghai. Not bad for a city that had no system in operation at all, 20 years prior. A dozen other cities in India have new metro systems in service and under construction/expansion, all built within the past decade.

Almost all of India's headline data represents this behavior - not the biggest in absolute terms, but growing much faster than far bigger established entities, whether it's in terms of solar power capacity or absolute GDP. In many significant metrics, we add more incremental output than the developed world already.

For us, it's better to quietly focus on building things. There's a lot to be built at home. Sure the rest of the world has problems, but it always has. What others want to do about it is their problem. The current world power structures give us no ability to do anything about it anyway. Over time, those structures will fall apart due to their own frailties, and then we will take a larger role in a new framework.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: America's role in the world

Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:16 pm

Oh certainly. It comes with time. I have many colleagues in India (and some who have permanently moved to the states as well). I have a business partner who is a US citizen, formerly from India. He is probably one of the harshest critics. But he understands the problem. What's important is that it is recognized and it is something everyone wants to address. That's more than what we can say for a lot of countries in the world. I respect that. I'm more excited about India growing than I am of other emerging markets. But I am a bit biased, I enjoy working with them more.
 
BarfBag
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Re: America's role in the world

Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:49 pm

Yes, we have an active civil society and functioning system capable of working towards change. Too many westerners make the mistake of trying to see India through their own notions of what's modern. In many ways India is only a generation - or less - behind. It doesn't mean we'll take that much time to catch up in some context , just that we're doing things that were done that long ago in the west. Change here is happening very fast. What was true as little as 2-4 years ago may no longer be. An example 4 years ago, access to internet was weak. Today: https://www.internetworldstats.com/asia/in.htm . And that's just upto 2016. Probably north of 600m for current year, considering there are 1.1 billion cellphones in use.

Back on topic, the US has gone through different phases of being internationalist and isolationist/nativist before. That is the culture of the place. It works on itself, then turns outward, then turns back in . The current administration seems to be just another of a line of 'leave me alone' types. There are several structures like NATO that are Cold War vestiges, but conveniently serve others' purposes. What do I think about it ? Nothing, other than that it's odd that so many countries have some kind of expectation of the US to be something, which usually says more about them than about the US...
 
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LockheedBBD
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Re: America's role in the world

Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:33 pm

I believe that America is leading the world in new age communism. With supreme leader Donald Trump leading the way, other countries will follow by example and embrace communism as well, Italy comes to mind.
 
anrec80
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Re: America's role in the world

Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:04 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Are you going to derail every topic to push your own great Russian agenda? Russia is unimportant in the great scheme of things.


I am not detailing anything. And given how much it’s being talked about - it doesn’t look unimportant at all. Alright - here are my 2c.

- USA will likely be there. Though they may fall into huge problems with unsustainable economy, and as the result inefficient and oversized military with rather limited capabilities. They will probably isolate themselves from providing security and overall world involvement. They’ll be OK with their role diminishing.
- EU - will be in increasing turmoil of internal disagreements. Nationalism on the rise. I don’t anticipate high chance of “X-exits”, but some nations will be mostly doing what they feel like, some may even try to project military might on their neighbors. Maybe someone will try to attract Russia as their military ally.
- Russia, China - i don’t see world leadership ambitions there; they both know it’s too expensive. But they’ll be there and will have their noticeable place for sure. I don’t see Russians sticking into any European mess.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: America's role in the world

Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:32 pm

anrec80 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Are you going to derail every topic to push your own great Russian agenda? Russia is unimportant in the great scheme of things.


I am not detailing anything. And given how much it’s being talked about - it doesn’t look unimportant at all. Alright - here are my 2c.

- USA will likely be there. Though they may fall into huge problems with unsustainable economy, and as the result inefficient and oversized military with rather limited capabilities. They will probably isolate themselves from providing security and overall world involvement. They’ll be OK with their role diminishing.
- EU - will be in increasing turmoil of internal disagreements. Nationalism on the rise. I don’t anticipate high chance of “X-exits”, but some nations will be mostly doing what they feel like, some may even try to project military might on their neighbors. Maybe someone will try to attract Russia as their military ally.
- Russia, China - i don’t see world leadership ambitions there; they both know it’s too expensive. But they’ll be there and will have their noticeable place for sure. I don’t see Russians sticking into any European mess.


Yup, beating the Putin drum. Russia is being talked about yes. I would argue that most people talk about unimportant things.

My 2cts --> America has to deal with their economics. Given their diminishing role, still important though but not top 1. EU will have to step and most countries will move towards more integration. Some countries will not move to the first tier EU group. China will resume its leadership in the world if the can keep their people happy in a dictatorship and work out how to deal with an aging population.
Russia will become even less important than today when fossil fuels are becoming irrelevant.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: America's role in the world

Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:49 pm

anrec80 wrote:
I don’t see Russians sticking into any European mess.

What a wonderful world would that be! Now, buggering off out of Ukraine would be a great first step.
 
anrec80
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Re: America's role in the world

Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:09 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
What a wonderful world would that be! Now, buggering off out of Ukraine would be a great first step.


You are living in exactly such world. No Russia in Ukraine, despite wishes of everyone involved (including Europeans and Ukrainians themselves) to the contrary...
 
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Dutchy
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:35 am

anrec80 wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
What a wonderful world would that be! Now, buggering off out of Ukraine would be a great first step.


You are living in exactly such world. No Russia in Ukraine, despite wishes of everyone involved (including Europeans and Ukrainians themselves) to the contrary...


Russia annexed part of Ukraine, so strange point of view. And Russians in eastern Ukraine is well known by the OVSE. You can deny facts all you want, but that won't change the facts.
 
anrec80
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:28 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Russia annexed part of Ukraine, so strange point of view. And Russians in eastern Ukraine is well known by the OVSE. You can deny facts all you want, but that won't change the facts.


Again you are about your “annexation”. I don’t know what OVSE knows and about what about Russians, but nobody, including OVSE and Ukraine itself, has ever shown to anyone even a single “aggressor”. Not even one. Tada. Neither dead nor alive. In more than 4 years. This is old, you know.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: America's role in the world

Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:40 pm

anrec80 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Russia annexed part of Ukraine, so strange point of view. And Russians in eastern Ukraine is well known by the OVSE. You can deny facts all you want, but that won't change the facts.


Again you are about your “annexation”. I don’t know what OVSE knows and about what about Russians, but nobody, including OVSE and Ukraine itself, has ever shown to anyone even a single “aggressor”. Not even one. Tada. Neither dead nor alive. In more than 4 years. This is old, you know.


Nobody, except some Russian lackies, recognizes the annexation of part of Ukraine. So you can leave the " ", not needed, widely recognized. ;) If you don't want the world to talk about annexation, then don't do it.

Uhmmm, Putin admitted to having Russian military personnel in eastern Ukraine, but hack what does he know: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/ ... ce-ukraine

And the sad part: ask all those mothers whom lost their son in eastern Ukraine on "vacation". You are - figurately speaking - pissing on their graves by presenting your point of view, again and again.

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