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Klaus
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:10 pm

Arion640 wrote:
mmo wrote:
More good news about Brexit. Can't wait for the other shoe to fall.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ind-france


As remain ultras keep saying - news like this isn’t applicable to brexit yet as we are still inside the European Union.


It is applicable because many people and businesses are already making their decisions away from and around the UK – bending their supply chains around it and seeking employment elsewhere, for instance.

UK businesses are already losing sales and EU nationals are already staying clear of the UK.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:05 pm

Arion640 wrote:
As remain ultras keep saying - news like this isn’t applicable to brexit yet as we are still inside the European Union.


Who, exactly, are "remain ultras"?

I just wondered because you seem to dislike it when Brexiteers are pigeon-holed or painted as a homogenous group. :scratchchin:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
As remain ultras keep saying - news like this isn’t applicable to brexit yet as we are still inside the European Union.


I just wondered because you seem to dislike it when Brexiteers are pigeon-holed or painted as a homogenous group. :scratchchin:


Feel free to call me whatever you like, I’m not worried one bit.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:27 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Beautiful, maybe it will give the UK a real leader as PM. Farrage or Johnsons would be prime candidates, who would make Brexit happen.


Would be bloody brilliant. I’m very excited about the future when we will be free of the shackles of the EUSSR.


You didn't get Seahawk is trolling hard Brexiters like you each time he make this type of comment, did you?


Well Grizzly. Looks like you’ve been proved wrong.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:30 pm

seahawk wrote:
That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.

President of France did a letter for cross party Remainers to get together to prevent Brexit, for some reason, a lot of folks in the EU do not share your opinion, I must admit that I am somewhat puzzled as to why some in the EU are still trying to keep the UK in, one would think that after years of frustrating the EU push for greater integration they would be glad to see the UK leave or at least tell them the only option open is the Norway model, nothing else. Anything other than that is a straight up trade deal which will take decades to resolve. Waiting for the UK to come up with a cherry picking deal which is unacceptable because it is cherry picking has gone no where fast.
Remember that the persons who have been frustrating the EU project on the UK side have been the politicians, both Labour and Tory, the majority of whom support remain, so if they do stay, what will change? At least now with Article 50 they get to let them back in with no carve outs whatsoever, maybe that is what the President of France is working on, a quick re-entry after Mar-2019.
 
mmo
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:40 pm

Arion640 wrote:
mmo wrote:
More good news about Brexit. Can't wait for the other shoe to fall.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ind-france


As remain ultras keep saying - news like this isn’t applicable to brexit yet as we are still inside the European Union.



Read the article and you will find it is very applicable. Can't wait for that final step off the cliff......
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:04 pm

seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Would be bloody brilliant. I’m very excited about the future when we will be free of the shackles of the EUSSR.


You didn't get Seahawk is trolling hard Brexiters like you each time he make this type of comment, did you?


That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


Fair enough, let's say you are using a very sarcastic way to make your point then !
Like other time before "One of the finest hours in British history", "British money is going to the EU every day, Money that would be needed to improve the NHS among other things". When it's written by a non UK, I just found that very funny at least.

That's a given UK have to leave now, I can't see them begging the commission to cancel their intention to leave, and even more : too much time wasted, no more extra time. Deal or no deal, let's break things up next march.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:55 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

You didn't get Seahawk is trolling hard Brexiters like you each time he make this type of comment, did you?


That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


Fair enough, let's say you are using a very sarcastic way to make your point then !
Like other time before "One of the finest hours in British history", "British money is going to the EU every day, Money that would be needed to improve the NHS among other things". When it's written by a non UK, I just found that very funny at least.

That's a given UK have to leave now, I can't see them begging the commission to cancel their intention to leave, and even more : too much time wasted, no more extra time. Deal or no deal, let's break things up next march.


Yep lets get leaving. The Peoples vote must stand.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:28 pm

Arion640 wrote:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1006006/brexit-news-eu-uk-brexit-alliance-theresa-may-latest/amp

Excellent news. I told you an alliance could be formed. We will be leaving. We are taking back control of our country.


Not particularly impressive.

Needs true "patriots" like Fransen, Golding, Robinson, the English Defence League, Britain First etc. You know - your kind of "hard Brexiteers".

You should convince them to join the cause.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:49 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

You didn't get Seahawk is trolling hard Brexiters like you each time he make this type of comment, did you?


That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


Fair enough, let's say you are using a very sarcastic way to make your point then !
Like other time before "One of the finest hours in British history", "British money is going to the EU every day, Money that would be needed to improve the NHS among other things". When it's written by a non UK, I just found that very funny at least.

That's a given UK have to leave now, I can't see them begging the commission to cancel their intention to leave, and even more : too much time wasted, no more extra time. Deal or no deal, let's break things up next march.


I support leave, because a UK that stays in the EU, would be a huge burden for the EU, as the UK does not really want to be in the EU and has not done so in decades. Sure it would be nice if the UK would see the benefits of the EU, but as long as they would rather be out or constantly demand special deals to stay in, it is better they are out.
Especially if people still support the Brexit as facts emerge and lies get exposed.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:59 pm

From Huffpost today, Barnier was rather clear:
Michel Barnier said he owed “the truth” to people as he told reporters the EU would not change its “principles” in order to strike a Brexit deal.

He also suggested an agreement would not be reached by the next European Council summit – scheduled for October 18th and 19th – and talks might have to carry on into November.

May’s proposal would see the UK effectively splitting the single market, with Britain following EU rules on goods and agri-foods, but not on services and freedom of movement of people.

European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have repeatedly said there can be no “cherry picking” of the single market, and the UK cannot be in some areas of the economic bloc but not others.

Speaking at a press conference alongside the UK’s Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Barnier was asked if the EU had changed any of its principles in order to secure a deal.

He replied: “Why would we? How can you change principles on which the European Union is based? Why would you? The UK is leaving the European Union, it’s not the other way round.”

Barnier added: “I say this very frankly because I owe the truth to you; on the question of the economic relation there are still areas of disagreement because what is in the white paper contradicts in some areas, and some points, things which are my guidelines, the guidelines of the European Council. On other things there’s convergence.”

Barnier also took a swipe at those in the UK who believe a lack of agreement between the two sides would be the fault of the EU.

“To be very frank I do see a blame game starting against the EU in case of a no deal. The EU will not be impressed by a blame game and everyone should understand that,” he said.


I think the fun will reach its peak at the september conservative party meeting :)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:05 pm

seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Would be bloody brilliant. I’m very excited about the future when we will be free of the shackles of the EUSSR.


You didn't get Seahawk is trolling hard Brexiters like you each time he make this type of comment, did you?


That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:15 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1006006/brexit-news-eu-uk-brexit-alliance-theresa-may-latest/amp

Excellent news. I told you an alliance could be formed. We will be leaving. We are taking back control of our country.


Not particularly impressive.

Needs true "patriots" like Fransen, Golding, Robinson, the English Defence League, Britain First etc. You know - your kind of "hard Brexiteers".

You should convince them to join the cause.


Now you’re making things up. When have I ever said I support these?

I’ll wait for your response.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:17 pm

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

You didn't get Seahawk is trolling hard Brexiters like you each time he make this type of comment, did you?


That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o


If he is Pro EU, I certainly respect him for seeing why the UK wants to leave. Rational and not spouting doomsday stories.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:22 pm

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

You didn't get Seahawk is trolling hard Brexiters like you each time he make this type of comment, did you?


That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o


What is not to like about the EU? I can move between countries as I like, I can work where I like, I can work a few months in Toulouse or Getafe and it is no hassle.

But then I also think keeping a country in the EU, that wants out, is also pointless.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:50 pm

seahawk wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:

That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o


What is not to like about the EU? I can move between countries as I like, I can work where I like, I can work a few months in Toulouse or Getafe and it is no hassle.

But then I also think keeping a country in the EU, that wants out, is also pointless.


They are free to leave and the EU might even get stronger because of it. And what I said all along, they need to decide which kind of deal they want, without cherrypicking. Hard Brexit: WTO rules or less - Norwegian model: full access/no power. Their choice, not the EU.

Personally, I hope for the Norwegian model because that will do the least amount of damage to all involved.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:01 pm

Arion640 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1006006/brexit-news-eu-uk-brexit-alliance-theresa-may-latest/amp

Excellent news. I told you an alliance could be formed. We will be leaving. We are taking back control of our country.


Not particularly impressive.

Needs true "patriots" like Fransen, Golding, Robinson, the English Defence League, Britain First etc. You know - your kind of "hard Brexiteers".

You should convince them to join the cause.


Now you’re making things up. When have I ever said I support these?

I’ll wait for your response.


Oh, you know: echoing Robinson's anti-immigrant dog whistles, lying about why he got into trouble, arguing that a religion calls for criminal behaviour, dog whistles about Turkish immigrants etc etc. Go through previous Brexit threads, re-read your own posts and knock yourself out.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:04 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:

That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o


If he is Pro EU, I certainly respect him for seeing why the UK wants to leave. Rational and not spouting doomsday stories.


Does he "see" why the UK wants to leave? Sounds more like he doesn't care at all why the UK wants to leave.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:46 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o


If he is Pro EU, I certainly respect him for seeing why the UK wants to leave. Rational and not spouting doomsday stories.


Does he "see" why the UK wants to leave? Sounds more like he doesn't care at all why the UK wants to leave.


I see why people voted to leave, yet I do not agree with the conclusion.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:03 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:

Not particularly impressive.

Needs true "patriots" like Fransen, Golding, Robinson, the English Defence League, Britain First etc. You know - your kind of "hard Brexiteers".

You should convince them to join the cause.


Now you’re making things up. When have I ever said I support these?

I’ll wait for your response.


Oh, you know: echoing Robinson's anti-immigrant dog whistles, lying about why he got into trouble, arguing that a religion calls for criminal behaviour, dog whistles about Turkish immigrants etc etc. Go through previous Brexit threads, re-read your own posts and knock yourself out.


Ahh more lies and exaggerations.

Again, you can’t prove this.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:29 pm

Arion640 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Now you’re making things up. When have I ever said I support these?

I’ll wait for your response.


Oh, you know: echoing Robinson's anti-immigrant dog whistles, lying about why he got into trouble, arguing that a religion calls for criminal behaviour, dog whistles about Turkish immigrants etc etc. Go through previous Brexit threads, re-read your own posts and knock yourself out.


Ahh more lies and exaggerations.

Again, you can’t prove this.


I don't have to. Anyone can open the last Brexit thread and read your posts for themselves. Just a pity I can't quote from closed threads.

So tell us, why did you lie about the Tommy Robinson case?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:52 pm

Dutchy wrote:
They are free to leave and the EU might even get stronger because of it. And what I said all along, they need to decide which kind of deal they want, without cherrypicking. Hard Brexit: WTO rules or less - Norwegian model: full access/no power. Their choice, not the EU.

Personally, I hope for the Norwegian model because that will do the least amount of damage to all involved.

The crazy thing in all this is just that, the EU waiting for the UK to come up with a plan that does not cherry pick, personally I do not believe that such exist, you either have
the 4 pillars or is on the outside looking in accessing via a negotiated trade deal. Norway for all intents and purposes is in the EU, they may not be a full blown member but
that is to their detriment since they have to obey the rules while having no say about them. If the Norway model was not acceptable to the UK during the run up to the vote, and it still does not carry much favour now, there is nothing else but a Hard Brexit. The EU principle of the 4 pillars is inviolate, the UK has issues with the 4 pillars, either they continue to "suck it up and live with it" as they have done for the past few decades, or they leave, to me it has always been that simple. It is the reason why I have never understood the soft Brexit push, anything that does not accept the 4 pillars is a Hard Brexit.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:11 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:

Oh, you know: echoing Robinson's anti-immigrant dog whistles, lying about why he got into trouble, arguing that a religion calls for criminal behaviour, dog whistles about Turkish immigrants etc etc. Go through previous Brexit threads, re-read your own posts and knock yourself out.


Ahh more lies and exaggerations.

Again, you can’t prove this.


I don't have to. Anyone can open the last Brexit thread and read your posts for themselves. Just a pity I can't quote from closed threads.

So tell us, why did you lie about the Tommy Robinson case?


I did not lie. Please re-visit the original posts.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:05 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
They are free to leave and the EU might even get stronger because of it. And what I said all along, they need to decide which kind of deal they want, without cherrypicking. Hard Brexit: WTO rules or less - Norwegian model: full access/no power. Their choice, not the EU.

Personally, I hope for the Norwegian model because that will do the least amount of damage to all involved.

The crazy thing in all this is just that, the EU waiting for the UK to come up with a plan that does not cherry pick, personally I do not believe that such exist, you either have
the 4 pillars or is on the outside looking in accessing via a negotiated trade deal. Norway for all intents and purposes is in the EU, they may not be a full blown member but
that is to their detriment since they have to obey the rules while having no say about them. If the Norway model was not acceptable to the UK during the run up to the vote, and it still does not carry much favour now, there is nothing else but a Hard Brexit. The EU principle of the 4 pillars is inviolate, the UK has issues with the 4 pillars, either they continue to "suck it up and live with it" as they have done for the past few decades, or they leave, to me it has always been that simple. It is the reason why I have never understood the soft Brexit push, anything that does not accept the 4 pillars is a Hard Brexit.


That is pretty much it (specifically Barnier's "step slide") – all those claims Farage, Johnson etc. had been making that the UK could just crash through the EU's store and then pick through the wreckage at will have simply just been lies and hollow promises. Those things were never theirs to promise and are simply not available, so effectively just one of those "steps" it will be (with minor modifications).

And that means that either it's in with all the corresponding obligations on the one hand or out without obligations, but also without benefits on the other extreme, or an intermediate state still with benefits and obligations corresponding to each other.

It's just the all benefits, no obligations illusion of the brexiteers that is just not going to happen, but why have people actually believed in such a unicorn being real? It's not happening in their personal lives either!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:31 am

It is quite simple if you go to the core of things. More benefits, more obligations. Quite strange that that needs to be explained.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:49 am

About president Macron, several points :

- he's a true liberal. Having to put barriers between France and the UK is not something he wants. Which doesn't mean he won't do it.
- he badly needs France to have the best economic results possible, with lower unemployment as a result. Brexit, without being catastrophic, could hurt that prospect.
- he believes in the EU project and wants it to move forward. Brexit has some good side-effects but as long as it hasn't really happened (or not happened) the EU won't be able to make the necessary changes.
- anti-EU sentiment in France is quite strong even if not at the level of some other countries, so "Brexit with a good deal" could bolster the electorate for Frexit. The leader of the main right-wing party, Laurent Wauquiez, is more and more eurosceptic, and europhiles in his party are leaving to go towards Macron's party. A right+far right coalition might be the result.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:55 pm

seahawk wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:

That is no trolling, I think it is best for all parties if a UK led by Farrage or Johnson is free of the EU and can do as it pleases. The UK would be no reliable partner in the EU, hopefully it will be one outside the EU. But keeping the UK in the EU given the current political climate, would just be wasted years for everybody. I am certain that the UK staying would cause more damage to the EU, than the UK leaving when you look at the long run.


So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o


What is not to like about the EU? I can move between countries as I like, I can work where I like, I can work a few months in Toulouse or Getafe and it is no hassle.

But then I also think keeping a country in the EU, that wants out, is also pointless.


I would also be a hard brexiteer if I didn't spend so much time working in the UK every year.

The good people of the UK don't deserve to be led to the abyss like this.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:33 pm

JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

So do I understand you correctly, you are pro-EU Seahawk? :o


What is not to like about the EU? I can move between countries as I like, I can work where I like, I can work a few months in Toulouse or Getafe and it is no hassle.

But then I also think keeping a country in the EU, that wants out, is also pointless.


I would also be a hard brexiteer if I didn't spend so much time working in the UK every year.

The good people of the UK don't deserve to be led to the abyss like this.


I feel you and that was my attitude. Nowadays, if they want to go off the cliff, they have been warned enough. The EU27 is not responsible for the UK. The offer is clear, the decision is clear, we will hear what they want.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:53 pm

Oh dear. The remainers won’t like this. A company committing to Britain? How dare they!

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/goldman- ... ssion=true
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:04 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I feel you and that was my attitude. Nowadays, if they want to go off the cliff, they have been warned enough. The EU27 is not responsible for the UK. The offer is clear, the decision is clear, we will hear what they want.

Basically yes, and in this case I am beginning to support the hard exit case. Basically they are independent and like any other trading nation, from the USA to China to Switzerland etc. they will be able to sell into and trade with the EU bloc effectively.

I don't support the departure but they are given no choice if they wish actual independence and real control over their policies. There will be bilaterals put in place pretty quickly for many things (such as the certification of aerospace parts that Airbus is concerned about. If it makes no sense to move production so an agreement will be reached.)

The UK will survive and be fine over time. Any change takes time for adjustment.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:20 pm

Tugger wrote:
if they wish actual independence and real control over their policies.


I hear you, but with all due respect, I think that is a fallacy. Like I said before, figurately speaking, no country is an island. With each, any every bilateral, treaty or whatever some independence is lost, but cooperation is gained.

That's what I don't understand about the Brexit case. Farage continues to shout for independence but at the same time want great trade deals with everyone.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:25 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Oh dear. The remainers won’t like this. A company committing to Britain? How dare they!

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/goldman- ... ssion=true

Commit to the UK by flogging the building they're not sure they could fill to Korea?
Easier out for them now.

#BrexitBellends
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:06 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Oh dear. The remainers won’t like this. A company committing to Britain? How dare they!

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/goldman- ... ssion=true


Your own link ends with:

Mr Blankfein tweeted he'll be spending more time in Frankfurt last October.

And a few days later, he wrote: "In London. GS still investing in our new Euro headquarters here. Expecting/hoping to fill it up, but so much outside our control. #Brexit".


The only thing you're jubilating about here is that GS is not outright abandoning their long-planned new headquarter already, while they're already pushing the long-term investment risk to another corporation and only leasing it back with an early termination option.

So that's how low your bar is now?
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:08 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Oh dear. The remainers won’t like this. A company committing to Britain? How dare they!

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/goldman- ... ssion=true

Commit to the UK by flogging the building they're not sure they could fill to Korea?
Easier out for them now.

#BrexitBellends


To be honest, why would a bank own real estate? The company I work for (large financial corporation) will never own its HQ as it's not good for your balance sheet. This sale-lease back deal is very common and nothing special for a bank or financial institution.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:23 pm

Tugger wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I feel you and that was my attitude. Nowadays, if they want to go off the cliff, they have been warned enough. The EU27 is not responsible for the UK. The offer is clear, the decision is clear, we will hear what they want.

Basically yes, and in this case I am beginning to support the hard exit case. Basically they are independent and like any other trading nation, from the USA to China to Switzerland etc. they will be able to sell into and trade with the EU bloc effectively.


That very much depends.

First, the bilaterals-based relationship Switzerland has will never again be offered to any other country, and the UK red lines would rule out anything like that anyway (among several other things, Switzerland is a Schengen member which the UK isn't even now!).

So there can only be something a lot looser with much weaker access to the Single Market and thus much weaker benefits, by the UK's own choice.

I don't support the departure but they are given no choice if they wish actual independence and real control over their policies. There will be bilaterals put in place pretty quickly for many things (such as the certification of aerospace parts that Airbus is concerned about. If it makes no sense to move production so an agreement will be reached.)


Airbus will move production if the UK decides to create a sufficiently onerous level of supply chain frictions.
It may just start with losing wing manufacturing for new models, with the established models following thereafter, or much quicker if the supply chain disruption is harsh enough.

The UK will survive


That remains to be seen. Northern Ireland explicitly already has an open door in the EU and in Dublin via the Good Friday Agreement for the population to go through whenever they choose to, and Scotland is teetering on the brink anyway. England, Wales and a few offshore tax havens wouldn't be all that "united" any more.

and be fine over time.


That looks increasingly doubtful. It wouldn't be the first country to throw itself off a cliff, and the results have often been long-term damage and decline.

Any change takes time for adjustment.


And in some cases adjusting to the consequences of your decisions just means downgrading your lifestyle.

The thing is that your sovereignty is very limited when you're a smaller country in a world of economic giants like the USA, the EU and China. That was one of the reasons why the EU countries are pooling certain parts of their sovereignty so together they're a global heavyweight which can't be pushed around while none of its member countries alone would really matter.

The UK on its own will very quickly have to sell out a lot more of its sovereignty for deals with the big powers than they had been making concessions within the EU. Brexit is a clear downgrade especially with regard to actual, real sovereignty!
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:58 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Tugger wrote:
if they wish actual independence and real control over their policies.


I hear you, but with all due respect, I think that is a fallacy. Like I said before, figurately speaking, no country is an island. With each, any every bilateral, treaty or whatever some independence is lost, but cooperation is gained.

That's what I don't understand about the Brexit case. Farage continues to shout for independence but at the same time want great trade deals with everyone.

While there is always something "given up" in most mutually negotiated agreements one thing normally isn't are things like what the four pillars contain. The USA and the EU have many agreements, so does Vietnam and they are establishing such with Brazil etc. But those agreements do no dictate free movement of people etc. which makes sense since they are not trying to integrate and be under the EU. Neither is the UK. I am fully confident that the UK will become a very successful international trading partner with the EU just as so many other nations are and in fact will become an important one. more so than other nations due to its proximity and ease of access (relatively) over time.

We will have to wait and see of course.

Klaus wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I feel you and that was my attitude. Nowadays, if they want to go off the cliff, they have been warned enough. The EU27 is not responsible for the UK. The offer is clear, the decision is clear, we will hear what they want.

Basically yes, and in this case I am beginning to support the hard exit case. Basically they are independent and like any other trading nation, from the USA to China to Switzerland etc. they will be able to sell into and trade with the EU bloc effectively.


That very much depends.

Well of course it depends, isn't that the case with anything? At all?

Klaus wrote:
First, the bilaterals-based relationship Switzerland has will never again be offered to any other country, and the UK red lines would rule out anything like that anyway (among several other things, Switzerland is a Schengen member which the UK isn't even now!).

So there can only be something a lot looser with much weaker access to the Single Market and thus much weaker benefits, by the UK's own choice.

And by the EU's choice as well of course. And I am not saying the Swiss agreement is an option or even a desirable one. The UK just needs to be a trading partner. And like most every other nation in the world, people will be allowed to move between them and won't be unfairly treated. The UK is not NK.

Klaus wrote:
Airbus will move production if the UK decides to create a sufficiently onerous level of supply chain frictions.
It may just start with losing wing manufacturing for new models, with the established models following thereafter, or much quicker if the supply chain disruption is harsh enough.

That of course is fully unecessary as I have pointed out earlier. However if parties wish to be punitive I cannot stop that. The USA and Brazil and other nations carry on a very healthy interchange of aerospace trade etc. and agreed to standards and certifications exist. It is not that difficult (again unless parties want to make it so) to agree to a rule which allows current systems in place to function going forward as the new situation develops. The places and specifications and parts/products etc. are not suddenly changing. Just laws. And laws can be made to accommodate (or not) this change in a timely fashion. But both parties have to be supportive of this.

Klaus wrote:
That remains to be seen. Northern Ireland explicitly already has an open door in the EU

This is the most problematic border, but it is as much a problem for the EU as it is for the UK (Ireland is a member state of the EU so if it is a problem for the member state is is also for the EU). Either a hard border will need to be put in place or another option agreed to. I don't think either side really likes any of the options that are available (and isn't that often the definition of a successful agreement? When neither parties is fully pleased?).

Klaus wrote:
And in some cases adjusting to the consequences of your decisions just means downgrading your lifestyle.

But we don't know that and it truly may not be the case here.

Klaus wrote:
The thing is that your sovereignty is very limited when you're a smaller country in a world of economic giants like the USA, the EU and China. That was one of the reasons why the EU countries are pooling certain parts of their sovereignty so together they're a global heavyweight which can't be pushed around while none of its member countries alone would really matter.

The UK on its own will very quickly have to sell out a lot more of its sovereignty for deals with the big powers than they had been making concessions within the EU. Brexit is a clear downgrade especially with regard to actual, real sovereignty!

Again, maybe, maybe not. We just don't know. Only time will tell. I do believe that the current UK leadership has their collective heads up where they shouldn't be looking but also the fact is the UK has existed for a long time, and that was not only because they were allied in some block. It is for many disparate reasons.

I am sure you, like me and most everyone, do not want to see the UK fail or suffer (and of course we do not "owe" them anything in particular either) so the idea is to work toward agreements where all sides prosper and thrive. That is doable, the world is not a zero sum game.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:48 am

Tugger wrote:
While there is always something "given up" in most mutually negotiated agreements one thing normally isn't are things like what the four pillars contain. The USA and the EU have many agreements, so does Vietnam and they are establishing such with Brazil etc. But those agreements do no dictate free movement of people etc. which makes sense since they are not trying to integrate and be under the EU. Neither is the UK. I am fully confident that the UK will become a very successful international trading partner with the EU just as so many other nations are and in fact will become an important one. more so than other nations due to its proximity and ease of access (relatively) over time.

We will have to wait and see of course.


That is indeed the nuanced approach. The Farage and Johnson and the like aren't nuanced at all. That was the point I was trying to make ;-)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:40 am

Trading goods never was seen as a real problem. That is a minor thing, the problem is that the UK is a service economy and needs access of its service providers to the EU market. Banks, insurance companies, any service provider needs it. But that is outside the WTO and typical trade deals and it needs common regulations and a common jurisdiction.
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:38 pm

seahawk wrote:
Trading goods never was seen as a real problem. That is a minor thing, the problem is that the UK is a service economy and needs access of its service providers to the EU market. Banks, insurance companies, any service provider needs it. But that is outside the WTO and typical trade deals and it needs common regulations and a common jurisdiction.


Yup and that will hurt the UK and especially the City, the most. Although trading goods with the highest tariffs - WTO rules - and the highest level of scrutiny - long bureaucracy at the borders, long waiting times = money) isn't much appealing either. Especially considering all goods made are so integrated that some pieces are made in the UK and others all over Europe which need to be integrated somewhere. So semi-finished products made within the UK will probably be moved to the EU27 because they are mostly ordered by price and prices will go up of these products.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:53 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Although trading goods with the highest tariffs - WTO rules - and the highest level of scrutiny - long bureaucracy at the borders, long waiting times = money) isn't much appealing either. Especially considering all goods made are so integrated that some pieces are made in the UK and others all over Europe which need to be integrated somewhere. So semi-finished products made within the UK will probably be moved to the EU27 because they are mostly ordered by price and prices will go up of these products.

Wait, is that the way it is now with all other trading nations the EU trades with?

I am not aware that it is.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:05 pm

Tugger wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Although trading goods with the highest tariffs - WTO rules - and the highest level of scrutiny - long bureaucracy at the borders, long waiting times = money) isn't much appealing either. Especially considering all goods made are so integrated that some pieces are made in the UK and others all over Europe which need to be integrated somewhere. So semi-finished products made within the UK will probably be moved to the EU27 because they are mostly ordered by price and prices will go up of these products.

Wait, is that the way it is now with all other trading nations the EU trades with?

I am not aware that it is.

Tugg


Tugg? Are you pulling my leg here? :lol:
The story of Parma-ham is the most ridicules for me. A little pig is born in the UK, only a few weeks old he will travel to the Netherlands. All excited by his new surroundings he will grow and grow and grow as quick as possible. Then the time comes to take a trip, everybody needs a holiday are his thoughts. So there he goes, with hundreds of his closest friends, on his way to Italy. There the only thing that awaits him and his friends are the silver bullets. Killed in Parma. Then the cadaver will be transported back to the Netherlands to be slaughtered and packed in little pieces. After that distributed throughout the EU, onto your plate. Your piece of Parma-ham probably traveled more than you do in a year.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:07 pm

Tugger wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Although trading goods with the highest tariffs - WTO rules - and the highest level of scrutiny - long bureaucracy at the borders, long waiting times = money) isn't much appealing either. Especially considering all goods made are so integrated that some pieces are made in the UK and others all over Europe which need to be integrated somewhere. So semi-finished products made within the UK will probably be moved to the EU27 because they are mostly ordered by price and prices will go up of these products.

Wait, is that the way it is now with all other trading nations the EU trades with?

I am not aware that it is.

Tugg


The EU has a large number of trade agreements with all its more important foreign partners to take the edge off, but they are still all at a disadvantage relative to other EU countries.

And the UK will be cut off from all those existing EU trade agreements and thus from their relatively favourable terms when it exits the EU. It won't even have WTO terms until it will eventually have resolved the standing disputes about its own quotas and schedules with the various objecting countries.
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:45 pm

Tugger wrote:
The UK will survive and be fine over time.
Tugg


Well, by the account of JRM, this fine time may come in 50 years from now?!
Of course the sun is not going to suddenly stop shining, albeit it will still often be hidden behind the legendary British rain clouds. ;)
Nobody is pretending civilization will end in the UK upon Brexit, but the UK will be undoubtedly a lot poorer and economically much weaker than before.

As was already mentioned numerous times, in the absence of a mutually agreed exit deal with the EU, despite what the Brexiteers roll out as the obvious solution in that case, the UK can NOT simply revert to WTO rules, because it has:
1_ no WTO tariff plan in place (and the EU can and will block one taking effect in case of a no deal exit),
2_ no settlement on the British share in the current EU quota at the WTO (and any of the other non EU27 WTO members can block it)
So unless Britain goes the WTO the way with a complete and global ZERO tariff for all on everything (which would wipe out the entire British manufacturing economy), the WTO option is actually a non-starter.

And in any case, WTO is just about goods, not services, which are much much more important to the UK's economy.
Britain is big on banks, insurers, consultants, legal firms, etc... it's relatively small in manufactured goods, compared to countries like France, Germany, Italy etc.
so it really needs the deal with the EU and desperately so, which is why Brexiteers have always been pretending it can easily have that deal (the cake), while still being able to Brexit on its own terms (eat it): it should be clear by now that it can't and that they just don't have a solution for that, as the WTO solution is a non-starter.


Interestingly enough, as from today the UK's government is publishing guidelines for different sectors on what to expect in case of a no-deal Brexit.The aim was to reassure people, but the first set of recommendations to businesses reads like a horror scenario, with a nationwide outcry about the practical consequences currently underway!
https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... th-no-deal
A brief extract of what to expect:

1_ British citizens living abroad will lose access to their British bank accounts because their banks are going to be cut of from the EU's TARGET2 system.

2_ British consumers in the UK can expect significantly higher prices from tariffs and additional import costs on everything from basic food to luxury goods

3_ British businesses can expect the EU to immediately implement its full tariff scheme on their exported goods, thus making their products much less competitive

4_ The treasury would have to borrow some 80BN more to cover the immediate tax shortfall due to the lower economic activity (due to a 7.7% hit to GDP)

5_ Several new departments would have to be set up overnight for administrative tasks currently done by EU agencies, producing lots of red tape, last minute

6_ Many very common visual appearances of consumer labels, table of contents, ingredient lists, etc would need to change, since the EU holds the copyrights to it.

And the most hilarious recommendation of all is the one to Northern Ireland businesses, which are simply advised to ask for assistance and follow all recommendations from the Irish government in future! You'd say the UK is simply giving up NI completely, in case of a no deal Brexit!
And yet they dare to refuse the EU's backstop proposal which keeps NI in the SM/CU?

If you want more proof of the UK simply not knowing what to do, enjoy the reading of their recommendations and compare them to the EU's document which was already published many months ago and was then labeled 'scare mongering': seems the British government has only now started to realize the full consequences of leaving, despite Mr. Barnier telling them clearly and from the very first day 'there will be consequences'.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:54 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:20 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
4_ The treasury would have to borrow some 80BN more to cover the immediate tax shortfall due to the lower economic activity (due to a 7.7% hit to GDP)


Probably the most important piece of information. This makes the UK the biggest loser in a "no deal"situation as the hardest hit EU country (Ireland) is foreseen to have a GDP hit of "just" 4%..

sabenapilot wrote:
5_ Several new departments would have to be set up overnight for administrative tasks currently done by EU agencies, producing lots of red tape, last minute


Which will add to the GBP 80bn it has to borrow. However, this will be a continuous expense for the UK government. Makes you wonder how much it will be compared to the annual fee the UK pays the EU currently.

sabenapilot wrote:
6_ Many very common visual appearances of consumer labels, table of contents, ingredient lists, etc would need to change, since the EU holds the copyrights to it.


I'm surprised the notices didn't cover the fact that EU patents and copyrights become non effective in the UK. Yes labelling is an issue, but I would argue that patents and copyrights are more important.

sabenapilot wrote:
If you want more proof of the UK simply not knowing what to do, enjoy the reading of their recommendations and compare them to the EU's document which was already published many months ago and was then labeled 'scare mongering': seems the British government has only now started to realize the full consequences of leaving, despite Mr. Barnier telling them clearly and from the very first day 'there will be consequences'.


The UK government doesn't seem to take it seriously when it doesn't urge people and businesses to do something. The UK recommends to take external advice before act on the possible consequences. This is opposite to what we see in The Netherlands where SMEs can get money for consultants, talk to business organisations and are urged to take action.
 
vc10
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:59 pm

Well this topic has been going on for 3 years now and you all fight like Ferrets in a ring, whilst very few if any really know all that is going on, never mind the solutions

What I do not understand about all these postings is that if the UK leaving the EU is a disaster for the UK ., but just a a minor hitch for the EU itself, then why do so many European[ I suppose] posters keep posting and telling the UK members or at least those who believe in Brexit how bad it will be for them if they leave, Surely it does not matter to the Europeans one way or another, or does it.

Now yes there are difficulties in untying agreements and quotas etc but surely the the EU should be willing to negotiate on these matters , or perhaps they already have as after all stay or leave we will be neighbours and need to get on together for our mutual befit and security

Now all the EU countries including the UK are at this moment in time members of the WTO , but the EU so far has carried out the negotiating for it's members. However should the UK leave the EU the WTO might actually say that a lot of these agreements need to re negotiated so as to share the quotas say out more equally.

Now as Sabenapilot mentioned [item 3] the EU can slap a big tax on UK exports to Europe , but as I read WTO rules they would have to apply this level of tax on all other countries similar goods, and there would perhaps be a reciprocal tax on EU goods exported to the UK.

As far as food goes the EU imposes 11% import duty on food imports from non EU countries so we could outside of the EU buy food cheaper from elsewhere
Clothes also have a similar EU duty so should be cheaper

As far as the NI border is concerned then yes the WTO does expect a member to maintain a border but as the Canadians and the USA have shown it dies not have to be a hard border.,if there s good will on both sides

Now a no deal Brexit would harm both sides have no doubt, I mean if I was a BMW worker facing a loss in exports and a possible loss in jobs I would be worried and yes the EU has a good hand of cards but it is not the only hand of cards.

Now before you all start jumping on me I am no expert , but just someone who has been reading documents on the WTO and I do not profess to understand in detail all the clauses that have been included in them , but could I propose that not many people on this forum do either.
Many thanks
littlevc10
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:19 pm

vc10 wrote:
What I do not understand about all these postings is that if the UK leaving the EU is a disaster for the UK ., but just a a minor hitch for the EU itself, then why do so many European[ I suppose] posters keep posting and telling the UK members or at least those who believe in Brexit how bad it will be for them if they leave, Surely it does not matter to the Europeans one way or another, or does it.


Because they care about their fellow Europeans?

vc10 wrote:
Now as Sabenapilot mentioned [item 3] the EU can slap a big tax on UK exports to Europe , but as I read WTO rules they would have to apply this level of tax on all other countries similar goods, and there would perhaps be a reciprocal tax on EU goods exported to the UK.


Yes, except countries the EU has a free trade agreement with.

vc10 wrote:
As far as the NI border is concerned then yes the WTO does expect a member to maintain a border but as the Canadians and the USA have shown it dies not have to be a hard border.,if there s good will on both sides


Isn't the US-Canadian border pretty hard? At least compared to the current Irish border.

vc10 wrote:
Now a no deal Brexit would harm both sides have no doubt, I mean if I was a BMW worker facing a loss in exports and a possible loss in jobs I would be worried and yes the EU has a good hand of cards but it is not the only hand of cards.


The EU has good cards, but at the moment my impression is they are mostly sitting at the table waiting for the UK to tell them what kind of deal they want. And I do not envy Theresa May at the moment, she has hard task in deciding that.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:45 pm

Does any one know why the Chancellor is pulling a JRM with his times? In his letter he is talking about the cost to 2033/34, based on all information put out by the Remain side, the UK should be back in some sort or EU alignment long before that. JRM did 50 years based on who know what, hopefully the chancellor has some firm foundation.
 
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:46 am

vc10 wrote:
What I do not understand about all these postings is that if the UK leaving the EU is a disaster for the UK , but just a a minor hitch for the EU itself, then why do so many European posters keep posting and telling the UK members or at least those who believe in Brexit how bad it will be for them if they leave?


Don’t you think that is a bit of a strange question, yourself?
With such a view, there can never be such a thing as a good advice from a friend, can there?
I know Europeans are increasingly being portrayed as ‘opponents’ rather than ‘partners’ in the British press, but you’re clearly already being indoctrinated by it slowly, albeit unknowingly.
Besides, as has been said numerously before: Brexit is not going to have any winners on either side, so you can equally say that Europeans are simply trying to limit the damage done to them, if that is easier to accept: but to go from there to somehow suggesting the advice given is such as to try to harm the UK just for our own benefit, is quite a stretch….

vc10 wrote:
Now yes there are difficulties in untying agreements and quotas etc but surely the the EU should be willing to negotiate on these matters , or perhaps they already have as after all stay or leave we will be neighbours and need to get on together for our mutual befit and security


The EU has been willing the grand the UK the customary status and corresponding privileges corresponding to that of any other third country, with the explicit offer it is willing to better it, provided the UK accepts the corresponding responsibilities and obligations.
What it is NEVER going to do, because it LEGALLY cannot do so, is to give the UK a deal which is a combination of much better benefits than others enjoy, for less obligations than those others have.
Something the UK simply cannot get its head around it seems, as if the UK genuinely seems to think it can somehow still draw rights from a past membership, in future too?!
Are you still allowed to visit your local gym once your membership terminates????

vc10 wrote:
Now all the EU countries including the UK are at this moment in time members of the WTO , but the EU so far has carried out the negotiating for its members. However should the UK leave the EU the WTO might actually say that a lot of these agreements need to re negotiated so as to share the quotas say out more equally.

That’s the second time you suggest the UK somehow holds ‘rights’ at the WTO level which will have to be separated like in a divorce. Allow me to shock you by telling that’s not how it works.
The EU is the sole signatory to pretty much all of the trade agreements Britain currently benefits from as well as the quota and believe it or not, but it can keep all of those rights, post Brexit too as these rights have been granted to the legal entity called ‘EU’ and thus they remain with the same legal entity ‘EU’, post Brexit too!!!!
It’s the UK which becomes a new, separate, previously non-present entity in its own rights and needs to be accepted by others as such first, so the UK needs to first agree with the EU on a portion of these rights, and then with the rest of the WTO to have this partition agreed.
Just as it will have to replicate all of the current EU's FTAs it currently benefits from, as it will no longer be allowed to use them, unless the EU temporarily allows it.
As Mr. Barnier has said: “the UK is leaving us, it’s not the other way around.”
Another reason –apart from there not being a tariff scheme- why it is completely disillusional to think the UK can trade under WTO rules in spring next year: it can’t, unless it unilaterally opens up to everybody, without any restrictions whatsoever: good luck to the British manufacturing, fishery and agricultural industry then! And a big thank you from the EU on top, as everybody also means the EU of course, so the only small card the UK still holds in all of this (i.e. tariff free access to its domestic market) is then given away.


vc10 wrote:
Now as Sabenapilot mentioned [item 3] the EU can slap a big tax on UK exports to Europe , but as I read WTO rules they would have to apply this level of tax on all other countries similar goods.

Yes, and the EU does so today, you know?
Unless there’s a FTA in place, which allows the EU to set lower/no taxes.
As others have pointed out, the EU has well over 60 of those agreements in place, so in practice the number of countries which face the full force of those tariffs is relatively small thanks to those FTAs, all of which the UK will lose access to unless the EU agrees the UK to piggy back on their agreement for some time…
But that’s not going to happen in a no deal scenario.

vc10 wrote:
As far as food goes the EU imposes 11% import duty on food imports from non EU countries so we could outside of the EU buy food cheaper from elsewhere
Clothes also have a similar EU duty so should be cheaper

Do you even know the WTO rules and tariffs on these?
Then how can you say it will be cheaper under the WTO rules than under current EU rules???
Besides, Britain imports most of its food from the EU, meaning there’s currently a ZERO tariff in place… will be hard to go below that, don’t you agree? ;)

vc10 wrote:
Now before you all start jumping on me I am no expert , but just someone who has been reading documents on the WTO and I do not profess to understand in detail all the clauses that have been included in them , but could I propose that not many people on this forum do either.
Many thanks
littlevc10


Don’t take this personal, because you’ve clearly been trying to make sense of what you’ve been reading, hearing and seeing, but it’s clear that a lot of people in the UK have a very poor understanding of how the world of today actually works and how their country interacts with it.
IMHO, it’s obvious that the British educational system should dedicate a lot more time on modern history, because many Brits clearly have no clue about the basic mechanisms which govern today’s world, nor do they understand the fundamental principles of international organizations: I’m not talking about expert level knowledge, but just the basics really!
I mean: when you hear the current British trade secretary say he expects to be able to sign bilateral trade deals with individual EU countries, your head should spin off almost, as it gives away this gentleman simply does not understand the constitutional arrangement of the EU and thus not of his own country (as it has been a full member of the EU for over 40 years): treaties on trade issues are for the EU only! And the same nonsense on the alternative of WTO is currently spread out by these people too: Britain can NOT trade under WTO rules, it’s having no quota (it needs to get them first back from the EU: the EU simply gets to keep the ‘UK portion’ so to say in case of a no deal), not does it have a tariff scheme of its own in place (in needs to get agreement on that from well over 150 individual countries), so unless it goes ZERO tariff to all, for all, and kill itself economically, Britain MUST strike a deal with the EU, even if it just wants the WTO option?!

British politicians increasingly make me think of poor chess players who have always pretended to be so well at the elegant game and on a drunk night entered one with a true grandmaster. Not surprisingly, they quickly ended up in a position from which they now will be check mated at the next move of the grandmaster, so now they try all sort of last moves first which are completely impossible and even proof of not understanding the rules of the game…. Pathetic.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14435
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:15 am

Tugger wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Although trading goods with the highest tariffs - WTO rules - and the highest level of scrutiny - long bureaucracy at the borders, long waiting times = money) isn't much appealing either. Especially considering all goods made are so integrated that some pieces are made in the UK and others all over Europe which need to be integrated somewhere. So semi-finished products made within the UK will probably be moved to the EU27 because they are mostly ordered by price and prices will go up of these products.

Wait, is that the way it is now with all other trading nations the EU trades with?

I am not aware that it is.

Tugg


Number of countries the EU currently trades with under pure WTO schedules without bilateral trade agreements or some comprehensive structure: zero i think.... Even EU-US has at least the TEC to smooth things over.
The only nation on this planet only doing trade under pure WTO rules is Mauretania, and since it has the developing nation status, it has zero tariffs to export into the EU and many other places..

But why keep this theoretical, little anecdote from my work what the problem with a disorderly exit is:

We are currently working on a project in the UK with a general contractor that is also in a non-EU country. The project has ...mm... lets call it national security implications, i don´t know any details, but i can guess what they are doing from the hardware/certification requirements. Acceptance and field testing is done, roll out is supposed to start in 4Q this year and stretch for 24 to 30 month. Its a lot of Units.
Now the end customer and the integrator want us to do DDP pricing, and we are not doing that unless hell freezes over for the obvious reasons, so negotiations are at a stalemate, the whole project will postpone a day for every day we can not proceed because of that, and since the hardware will always come from outside the UK, changing the supplier doesn´t help either, on top of having to go through the whole validation phase again........ and of course the UK stays vulnerable in that specific regard a day longer for each day we can´t agree on conditions.

Now imagine you are an export oriented company in the UK encountering that very same problem with your foreign customers, you basically have to bet the farm when making such quotations. That can kill your company and the jobs that come with it.

While i think the UK will be doing ok, all sides have a vested interest in getting stuff to work in a rather short order, but as far as i know no country ever just flat out dropped out of all its trade deals before, so this will be a very interesting experiment. What scares me the most is that the cliffedge is not taken all too serious, sort of like "remember the Y2K scare? Nothing happend" .... well, first, things did happen, just no mass casualty events, and most importantly that was taken very serious and god knows how many man-years have been poured into fixing code.....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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par13del
Posts: 10658
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:12 am

sabenapilot wrote:
The EU has been willing the grand the UK the customary status and corresponding privileges corresponding to that of any other third country, with the explicit offer it is willing to better it, provided the UK accepts the corresponding responsibilities and obligations.

Correct me if I am wrong, but is third country the same as Hard Brexit, no 4 pillars?
sabenapilot wrote:
Something the UK simply cannot get its head around it seems, as if the UK genuinely seems to think it can somehow still draw rights from a past membership, in future too?!
Are you still allowed to visit your local gym once your membership terminates????

This analogy was used in previous threads to say the UK could not be obliged to continue to pay into the EU for future projects after they leave because of just that, not being able to access the local gym after their membership terminates.
sabenapilot wrote:

The EU is the sole signatory to pretty much all of the trade agreements Britain currently benefits from as well as the quota and believe it or not, but it can keep all of those rights, post Brexit too as these rights have been granted to the legal entity called ‘EU’ and thus they remain with the same legal entity ‘EU’, post Brexit too!!!!
It’s the UK which becomes a new, separate, previously non-present entity in its own rights and needs to be accepted by others as such first, so the UK needs to first agree with the EU on a portion of these rights, and then with the rest of the WTO to have this partition agreed.
Just as it will have to replicate all of the current EU's FTAs it currently benefits from, as it will no longer be allowed to use them, unless the EU temporarily allows it.
As Mr. Barnier has said: “the UK is leaving us, it’s not the other way around.”
Another reason –apart from there not being a tariff scheme- why it is completely disillusional to think the UK can trade under WTO rules in spring next year: it can’t, unless it unilaterally opens up to everybody, without any restrictions whatsoever: good luck to the British manufacturing, fishery and agricultural industry then! And a big thank you from the EU on top, as everybody also means the EU of course, so the only small card the UK still holds in all of this (i.e. tariff free access to its domestic market) is then given away.

I may disagree about the open up to everybody without any restrictions, restrictions are allowed but there are limits on those.
The WTO is not about wiping out a country's economy / industry to favour others, but a full blown WTO discussion would derail this thread.
However, what this does show is as you say, the UK politicians and their civil servants are either massively delusional or just plain out to harm the EU and the UK, in the last two years these are some of the things they should have been working on as the UK even if they go Norway model will have to work on some of these items for themselves, it is all about preparation for a new relationship which Article 50 mandate once it is filed.

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