What I do not understand about all these postings is that if the UK leaving the EU is a disaster for the UK , but just a a minor hitch for the EU itself, then why do so many European posters keep posting and telling the UK members or at least those who believe in Brexit how bad it will be for them if they leave?
Don’t you think that is a bit of a strange question, yourself?
With such a view, there can never be such a thing as a good advice from a friend, can there?
I know Europeans are increasingly being portrayed as ‘opponents’ rather than ‘partners’ in the British press, but you’re clearly already being indoctrinated by it slowly, albeit unknowingly.
Besides, as has been said numerously before: Brexit is not going to have any winners on either side, so you can equally say that Europeans are simply trying to limit the damage done to them, if that is easier to accept: but to go from there to somehow suggesting the advice given is such as to try to harm the UK just for our own benefit, is quite a stretch….
Now yes there are difficulties in untying agreements and quotas etc but surely the the EU should be willing to negotiate on these matters , or perhaps they already have as after all stay or leave we will be neighbours and need to get on together for our mutual befit and security
The EU has been willing the grand the UK the customary status and corresponding privileges corresponding to that of any other third country, with the explicit offer it is willing to better it, provided the UK accepts the corresponding responsibilities and obligations.
What it is NEVER going to do, because it LEGALLY cannot do so, is to give the UK a deal which is a combination of much better benefits than others enjoy, for less obligations than those others have.
Something the UK simply cannot get its head around it seems, as if the UK genuinely seems to think it can somehow still draw rights from a past membership, in future too?!
Are you still allowed to visit your local gym once your membership terminates????
Now all the EU countries including the UK are at this moment in time members of the WTO , but the EU so far has carried out the negotiating for its members. However should the UK leave the EU the WTO might actually say that a lot of these agreements need to re negotiated so as to share the quotas say out more equally.
That’s the second time you suggest the UK somehow holds ‘rights’ at the WTO level which will have to be separated like in a divorce. Allow me to shock you by telling that’s not how it works.
The EU is the sole signatory to pretty much all of the trade agreements Britain currently benefits from as well as the quota and believe it or not, but it can keep all of those rights, post Brexit too as these rights have been granted to the legal entity called ‘EU’ and thus they remain with the same legal entity ‘EU’, post Brexit too!!!!
It’s the UK which becomes a new, separate, previously non-present entity in its own rights and needs to be accepted by others as such first, so the UK needs to first agree with the EU on a portion of these rights, and then with the rest of the WTO to have this partition agreed.
Just as it will have to replicate all of the current EU's FTAs it currently benefits from, as it will no longer be allowed to use them, unless the EU temporarily allows it.
As Mr. Barnier has said: “the UK is leaving us, it’s not the other way around.”
Another reason –apart from there not being a tariff scheme- why it is completely disillusional to think the UK can trade under WTO rules in spring next year: it can’t, unless it unilaterally opens up to everybody, without any restrictions whatsoever: good luck to the British manufacturing, fishery and agricultural industry then! And a big thank you from the EU on top, as everybody also means the EU of course, so the only small card the UK still holds in all of this (i.e. tariff free access to its domestic market) is then given away.
Now as Sabenapilot mentioned [item 3] the EU can slap a big tax on UK exports to Europe , but as I read WTO rules they would have to apply this level of tax on all other countries similar goods.
Yes, and the EU does so today, you know?
Unless there’s a FTA in place, which allows the EU to set lower/no taxes.
As others have pointed out, the EU has well over 60 of those agreements in place, so in practice the number of countries which face the full force of those tariffs is relatively small thanks to those FTAs, all of which the UK will lose access to unless the EU agrees the UK to piggy back on their agreement for some time…
But that’s not going to happen in a no deal scenario.
As far as food goes the EU imposes 11% import duty on food imports from non EU countries so we could outside of the EU buy food cheaper from elsewhere
Clothes also have a similar EU duty so should be cheaper
Do you even know the WTO rules and tariffs on these?
Then how can you say it will be cheaper under the WTO rules than under current EU rules???
Besides, Britain imports most of its food from the EU, meaning there’s currently a ZERO tariff in place… will be hard to go below that, don’t you agree?
Now before you all start jumping on me I am no expert , but just someone who has been reading documents on the WTO and I do not profess to understand in detail all the clauses that have been included in them , but could I propose that not many people on this forum do either.
Don’t take this personal, because you’ve clearly been trying to make sense of what you’ve been reading, hearing and seeing, but it’s clear that a lot of people in the UK have a very poor understanding of how the world of today actually works and how their country interacts with it.
IMHO, it’s obvious that the British educational system should dedicate a lot more time on modern history, because many Brits clearly have no clue about the basic mechanisms which govern today’s world, nor do they understand the fundamental principles of international organizations: I’m not talking about expert level knowledge, but just the basics really!
I mean: when you hear the current British trade secretary say he expects to be able to sign bilateral trade deals with individual EU countries, your head should spin off almost, as it gives away this gentleman simply does not understand the constitutional arrangement of the EU and thus not of his own country (as it has been a full member of the EU for over 40 years): treaties on trade issues are for the EU only! And the same nonsense on the alternative of WTO is currently spread out by these people too: Britain can NOT trade under WTO rules, it’s having no quota (it needs to get them first back from the EU: the EU simply gets to keep the ‘UK portion’ so to say in case of a no deal), not does it have a tariff scheme of its own in place (in needs to get agreement on that from well over 150 individual countries), so unless it goes ZERO tariff to all, for all, and kill itself economically, Britain MUST strike a deal with the EU, even if it just wants the WTO option?!
British politicians increasingly make me think of poor chess players who have always pretended to be so well at the elegant game and on a drunk night entered one with a true grandmaster. Not surprisingly, they quickly ended up in a position from which they now will be check mated at the next move of the grandmaster, so now they try all sort of last moves first which are completely impossible and even proof of not understanding the rules of the game…. Pathetic.