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Olddog
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Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:03 pm

Phase one can be found here: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1361799

Phase two can be found here: /forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1385053

After the infamous White paper, and the orgy at the chequers, almost every european knew that the UK plan was totally unacceptable as it goes against EU negotiating guidelines and the SM 4 pillars.

The press conference with Barnier friday should be interesting :)
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:10 pm

Airbus says activating Brexit contingency plans as UK strategy 'unraveling'

Airbus says they will stockpiling parts. Wonder what will be the cost?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:57 pm

The cost will be borne by the UK government it will be able to get past the EU government subsidy issue because the UK will still be fudging around trying to identify their negotiating position.
As for the conference on Friday, I am home for a week so I will be watching the Open, I hope and pray that coverage is not interrupted for that farce, one must have your priorities in order, so far other than the promise 39 billion, everything else has been DOA, so....
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:55 pm

Don't we have a phase 4? I would suggest changing the title to: an enthusiastic march towards the cliff-edge :lol:

We still have a few months before the big jump into the abyss.

Olddog wrote:
Airbus says activating Brexit contingency plans as UK strategy 'unraveling'

Airbus says they will stockpiling parts. Wonder what will be the cost?


Apparently less then if Airbus can't produce aircraft anymore, because of some bureaucratic reason or import tariffs. Wonder about the true cost of "hard" Brexit. I would say that the true cost of Brexit - worst case - is quite dramatic, even more dramatic than I thought.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:01 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Apparently less then if Airbus can't produce aircraft anymore, because of some bureaucratic reason or import tariffs. Wonder about the true cost of "hard" Brexit. I would say that the true cost of Brexit - worst case - is quite dramatic, even more dramatic than I thought.

Again the Airbus thing is mostly made up. The plants producing the parts are not changing, the production processes are not changing, the parts are not changing. That means the only thing at issue is how hard parties involved want to make things. And from what I can tell the EU wants to make it hard and painful.

Otherwise you just do a temporary agreement for certification, keeping all processes etc in place and the same, and move forward. The certifying/overseeing agency can do this.

This happens all the time in the certification world. Because the important part is the part/process/production.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:12 pm

Tugger wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Apparently less then if Airbus can't produce aircraft anymore, because of some bureaucratic reason or import tariffs. Wonder about the true cost of "hard" Brexit. I would say that the true cost of Brexit - worst case - is quite dramatic, even more dramatic than I thought.

Again the Airbus thing is mostly made up. The plants producing the parts are not changing, the production processes are not changing, the parts are not changing. That means the only thing at issue is how hard parties involved want to make things. And from what I can tell the EU wants to make it hard and painful.

Otherwise you just do a temporary agreement for certification, keeping all processes etc in place and the same, and move forward. The certifying/overseeing agency can do this.

This happens all the time in the certification world. Because the important part is the part/process/production.

Tugg


Perhaps, Tugg, but you have to understand that there are thousands of cases like this and there needs to be made an overall deal, not a case by case basis.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:18 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Perhaps, Tugg, but you have to understand that there are thousands of cases like this and there needs to be made an overall deal, not a case by case basis.

I disagree, certifications are factual things. Based on actual production processes and quality inspection etc. Certification standards (they are standards, like kilometers, the distance of things will not change with the separation) so they are known things and do not have to be disputed or disrupted.

This would be an easy thing to address (relatively) however I think some are trying to make it another pressure point. It doesn't need to be.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:35 pm

Tugger wrote:
This would be an easy thing to address (relatively) however I think some are trying to make it another pressure point. It doesn't need to be.

Tugg


This is precisely it. They are just using it as a leverage point.

It's not like a part being built in the UK on the day before the cliff jump happens is any more conforming than the part built the day after. They will both have been built to the same process specs and under the same certification basis. All that is needed is some simple paperwork to say as such.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:48 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Perhaps, Tugg, but you have to understand that there are thousands of cases like this and there needs to be made an overall deal, not a case by case basis.

...but all of UK has been under the jurisdiction of the EU, one of the strengths of the EU is that it has regulations from cradle to the grave, so it will be years before the UK independence will have any effect. Take the famous chlorinated chicken, even if the UK decides to accept it can only be an import item since the entire UK production functions without, they probably may not even be able to source the chemicals from the EU or anyone affiliated. It is also not a given that the USA would force the UK to accept, after all, that will also be a negotiation.
If Brexit does go ahead, any section where they deviate will be years in the making as one cannot change production process overnight, the bill that they passed making EU law into UK law was one of the more sensible items in this entire debacle.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:04 pm

Tugger wrote:
I disagree, certifications are factual things. Based on actual production processes and quality inspection etc. Certification standards (they are standards, like kilometers, the distance of things will not change with the separation) so they are known things and do not have to be disputed or disrupted.

This would be an easy thing to address (relatively) however I think some are trying to make it another pressure point. It doesn't need to be.

Tugg

Dear Tugg, you are focusing on certification issues, and in that respect I tend to agree with you.

But I think that Mr Enders is more worried about ordinary goods exchange issues. Trucks getting stuck at the Channel on both sides, also with EU27 produced components which are built into the wings in Britain.

The Reuters article talks about "creating a headache for companies that rely on the smooth flow of goods and parts across borders."

With still zero effort to build the infrastructure and hire the people to do the jobs needed at the borders, and little over eight months to go....

Certification papers can be fixed. But trucks with Airbus components cannot just bypass other truck in the queue with Dutch tulips, Spanish oranges, Danish butter, and German engines to be mounted in Rolls Royce cars, etc.

The message from Enders I also see as a "warning", telling that if things will move less smoothly in the future, then it natually is one parameter which will be evaluated among others when future production or production expansion is handled, and where.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:12 am

[quote="prebennorholm"
With still zero effort to build the infrastructure and hire the people to do the jobs needed at the borders, and little over eight months to go....
[/quote]
That is where I think the chancellor played his card, unless there is / was a plan for no Brexit, the UK is / was going to need new hires to deal with trade as a third country, any compromise that allows them to initiate their own trade deals will require infrastructure as this is supposed to be one of the main pillars of leave / Brexit.
The chancellor mindset that he would only release funds if no deal was made meant / means that third country processing has to be delayed since staff will not be in place, they cannot be hired and trained in 6 months and you cannot borrow from the EU since they do not have free resources.
The fact that the chancellor thinks that planning means defeat is / was shocking at best, that he was not fired is another story, including when you look at how he led the services industry along then abandoned them in the Chequers agreement.
If he had released funds and they hired people the unemployment numbers may have gone down giving a false impression of Brexit, he has not said but there has to have been a sensible reason to leave yourself handicapped.
 
blrsea
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:31 am

Interesting times ahead...

EU assault on May's white paper heightens 'no deal' Brexit fears

“The white paper is not going to form the basis of the negotiations,” one senior EU diplomat told the Guardian. British government sources, in the wake of the latest talks, admitted growing despair over what they regard as the intransigence of their EU counterparts.
...
But an EU diplomat representing a member state said: “What the UK has proposed is unacceptable. We have had no progress on the issue. It is good that the UK has tabled the white paper but that is not what we are talking about at the moment. The withdrawal agreement and Irish protocol in it comes first.”
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:13 am

Tugger wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Apparently less then if Airbus can't produce aircraft anymore, because of some bureaucratic reason or import tariffs. Wonder about the true cost of "hard" Brexit. I would say that the true cost of Brexit - worst case - is quite dramatic, even more dramatic than I thought.

Again the Airbus thing is mostly made up. The plants producing the parts are not changing, the production processes are not changing, the parts are not changing. That means the only thing at issue is how hard parties involved want to make things. And from what I can tell the EU wants to make it hard and painful.

Otherwise you just do a temporary agreement for certification, keeping all processes etc in place and the same, and move forward. The certifying/overseeing agency can do this.

This happens all the time in the certification world. Because the important part is the part/process/production.

Tugg


The question is if the CAA has the means to do what the EASA does. After a legal agreement comes the practical application and I have doubts that the CAA is staffed to take over all EASA responsibilities. It is the same with border control. If you have enough staff to work the new border controls and they have the equipment, it is all a minor problem, But the UK does not have that and they are not even preparing for it. All British authorities should be hiring right now, training and preparing for the day the Brexit comes, but that is not happening.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:29 am

That's all nice to plan on, but what exactly should they train newly hired -as well as long term- staff on?
The rules to be applied by them are not even vaguely known yet for the biggest part of their paperwork and if the government is serious about its mantra of a deal as frictionless as possible, they won't have to do much either.
Not to mention the fact it would require massive construction works all throughout the UK to build vast lorry parkings, custom stations and probably new HQs for regional custom agencies...
And the UK would be in very visual breach of the GFA, which would probably spur an outburst of anger in NI, also amongst moderate unionists, which could lead to the situation where a likely majority is in favour of a referendum on reunification with Ireland, a referendum which is promissed under such conditions...
Reality is that for all the posturing about how a no deal is better than a bad deal, it's clear the UK can simply not afford the full consequences of such an outcome operationally, nor legally, on top of not wanting to pay the price economically of course.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:49 am

prebennorholm wrote:
Certification papers can be fixed. But trucks with Airbus components cannot just bypass other truck in the queue with Dutch tulips, Spanish oranges, Danish butter, and German engines to be mounted in Rolls Royce cars, etc.


The issue is also that the airbus components wont be on a single truck, there will be components to numerous suppliers to airbus, from screws to pipes, all kinds of things that are put together by various manufacturers before going to airbus in Broughton to be make a wing.

It is a whole web of manufacturers and suppliers - without a customs agreement for all these goods for all these suppliers, there will need to be stockpiling at various different companies/sites and there will be risks in the supply chain.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:48 am

In reality, the only trading rules that the UK has are the EU rules for within the CM and with third countries, that is what they will have to enforce at their borders until divergence takes place or the EU decides they are no longer valid and put out a whole new set of rules which the UK would have no foreknowledge of, so divergence can be initiated or forced.
The legal framework is in place for this and I believe it is all inclusive of all sections of EU law, ministers can make changes later, it is the power grab that some complained about as it relates to devolution. In addition to hiring infrastructure has to be built, in the short term some ports of entry may have to be minimized as they may not be capable of handling volume when checks have to be made.
Even with a deal, unless it keeps the UK in the EU hiring and infrastructure has to be done as the way the UK trades is going to change, the fact that they have been sitting waiting may have been a deliberate ploy to say based on the difficulties we should just not leave, based on the current state of negotiations that is as valid a theory as any other.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:55 pm

And if you think the EU would not be preparing. Check the list for German business and how to get ready for Brexit: https://www.dihk.de/ressourcen/download ... 6554238225

And this is my favourite, although it is in German. https://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Content/DE/Tra ... te.pdf?v=2

Page 7 is especially nice, as it shows one point that is so often overlooked, which is that you need to have a certain amount of the product made in the EU to fall under that trade deals the EU has.

Today a part made 20% in China, 10% in the USA and 40% in the UK and 30% in France, is a part made in the EU. After Brexit it is not. That can be interesting for Airbus if you look at RR engines and wings.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:31 pm

seahawk wrote:
Today a part made 20% in China, 10% in the USA and 40% in the UK and 30% in France, is a part made in the EU.

This never get's old, one has to wonder how persons are still convinced that the Made in XXXX means anything other than to give a consumer comfort to purchase the product, in advertising it would be called false and charges laid, but we digress.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:43 pm

par13del wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Today a part made 20% in China, 10% in the USA and 40% in the UK and 30% in France, is a part made in the EU.

This never get's old, one has to wonder how persons are still convinced that the Made in XXXX means anything other than to give a consumer comfort to purchase the product, in advertising it would be called false and charges laid, but we digress.


It matters little for the customer, but a lot if it falls under the free trade agreement the EU has with various partners or not.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:06 pm

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/varadkar-s-claim-over-airspace-restrictions-shameful-blackmail-1-8572411

Saddened that their conniving plan to use the Irish border to stop brexit, little Leo (what is it about Irish men in positions of power and their big mouths) has thrown his toys out of the pram. Leo boy really is playing with fire.

Looks like my BRXT roster code is one step closer! It's interesting that remainers will support and actively encourage Leo and his plan but will laugh off any suggestion of retaliatory restrictions put in place by the UK. Of course, were not that petty. This is despite Ireland allowing an anti Jewish airline to stopover and allowing fly in and over despite EU sanctions and murdering 298 on MH17. No problem with them, but totally fine stopping UK flights!

Being at the western side of the EU geographically Ireland has a lot more to lose than the UK if we were to be banned from flying in each other's airspace. I can't imagine MOL being too pleased neither.

I guess we will be ending Shanwick? I can't see one nation banning another's planes from their airspace whilst continuing to work together to control aircraft. Still, with remainers anything is possible just as long as it's disadvantaging the UK and they actively welcome it.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:12 am

The EU is producing a lot of reminders to spell out the consequences of Brexit for EU companies: here a little factsheets
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:00 am

sevenair wrote:
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/varadkar-s-claim-over-airspace-restrictions-shameful-blackmail-1-8572411

Saddened that their conniving plan to use the Irish border to stop brexit, little Leo (what is it about Irish men in positions of power and their big mouths) has thrown his toys out of the pram. Leo boy really is playing with fire.


Says the same sevenair who wants to withhold UK security intelligence that can save EU lives in return for cash payments :roll:

Its called the Good Friday Agreement, an agreement that has helped calm the troubles and that the UK has signed up to.

I'm still awaiting an answer from Arion640 on this one, maybe you can tell me how you honour the Good Friday Agreement and avoid having a hard border with Northern Ireland, either:

a) on the Northern Ireland Border, or
b) in the Irish Sea

whilst avoiding extremely close harmonisation of rules and standards and being in a customs union with the EU?
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:44 am

Nup. It's the same sevenair who thinks that if the EU withold information from us that it only fair for us to provide ours at cost. I don't see why we should give the EU the data for free when the EU are quite happy to put our citizens at risk by withholding their data. You get outraged over me wanting to provide access for a nominal fee but are totally fine with the EU witholding their data, yet I'm the bad guy? But it's the EU and you're a remoaner ergo the EU is all things wonderful and the UK is the only one who'll have consequences. It's not the UK's job to monitor the thousands of new 'doctors, lawyers, artisans and poets' that make the crossing to Europe every year. Still, it's only British lives, right? I mean they voted to leave and so deserve terror attacks.

The island of Ireland already has many major divergences already. Currency, healthcare systems, tax, aviation tax, VAT, speed limits, official languages and two governments. It's a billion at most in trade going across that border. Given that Ireland would suffer greatly (I know, it's hard to comprehend for you remoaners) in the event of a hard brexit, it's time they change their attitude of 'it's a British matter for the British to sort out' whilst at the same time rubbishing any progress. A UK out of the EU on WTO terms would mean that the border is very much a joint British/Irish issue. You lot are just dancing to Leo's anti British tune in the hope that it stops brexit.

It won't! We are leaving the EU. Hard brexit is getting more likely by the day.
Last edited by sevenair on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:44 am

Richard28 wrote:
I'm still awaiting an answer from Arion640 on this one, maybe you can tell me how you honour the Good Friday Agreement and avoid having a hard border with Northern Ireland, either:

a) on the Northern Ireland Border, or
b) in the Irish Sea

whilst avoiding extremely close harmonisation of rules and standards and being in a customs union with the EU?


I am assuming the "solution" is something along the lines of the EU going "Yes my liege, of course my liege, whatever you say my liege...... we don´t need or want control over our borders".

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:45 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
I'm still awaiting an answer from Arion640 on this one, maybe you can tell me how you honour the Good Friday Agreement and avoid having a hard border with Northern Ireland, either:

a) on the Northern Ireland Border, or
b) in the Irish Sea

whilst avoiding extremely close harmonisation of rules and standards and being in a customs union with the EU?


I am assuming the "solution" is something along the lines of the EU going "Yes my liege, of course my liege, whatever you say my liege...... we don´t need or want control over our borders".

best regards
Thomas


They don't have control of their borders. That's the point!
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:01 am

Oh it's all clear now! Leoboy wants access to our fishing grounds! It's all clear. Anyway, NO DEAL my British hating friend. An overfly ban will damage Ireland more than it does the UK. Remember an awful lot of flights to Ireland's beloved EU countries fly over the airspace of this great nation.

Besides I figured that I'm alright. A slight reroute for a small handful of flights is all we need. Irish flights and flights transiting Irish airspace represent a tiny proportion of my lot's flights.

Ryanair however! They'll be pivoting away quicker than you can say 'scratch cards'.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:04 am

sevenair wrote:
They don't have control of their borders. That's the point!


Yeah, I know. The UK has a decade old history of handing out VISAs to non-EU citizens like free candy, so that will automatically improve after Brexit.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:42 am

sevenair wrote:
Hard brexit is getting more likely by the day.


Do you genuinely want a hard Brexit? If so, are you (presumably a UK taxpayer) willing to pay for the 300+ roads that cross the Irish border to be manned? What about the thoughts and wishes of the people in NI, the majority of whom voted to remain, and many of whom rely on business that works across the border each day? Or do you want to see NI cut off, thus ending by definition the United Kingdom?
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:43 am

opticalilyushin wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Hard brexit is getting more likely by the day.

What about the thoughts and wishes of the people in NI, the majority of whom voted to remain, and many of whom rely on business that works across the border each day? Or do you want to see NI cut off, thus ending by definition the United Kingdom?


If it's anything like lots of English hard leavers, 'screw them'. The same sentiment has been made about the Scots and Welsh. The selfishness and preparedness to destroy the UK is beyond belief.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:35 am

opticalilyushin wrote:
What about the thoughts and wishes of the people in NI, the majority of whom voted to remain, and many of whom rely on business that works across the border each day? Or do you want to see NI cut off, thus ending by definition the United Kingdom?

So what is your alternative, millions voted to leave, should they have to stay in the EU because of NI despite their vote to leave?
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:01 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
opticalilyushin wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Hard brexit is getting more likely by the day.

What about the thoughts and wishes of the people in NI, the majority of whom voted to remain, and many of whom rely on business that works across the border each day? Or do you want to see NI cut off, thus ending by definition the United Kingdom?


If it's anything like lots of English hard leavers, 'screw them'. The same sentiment has been made about the Scots and Welsh. The selfishness and preparedness to destroy the UK is beyond belief.


A million Scots voted leave. Wales voted leave. Hard brexit is the only brexit. 44% of votes in NI were to leave so it's not like it was an overwhelmingly pro remain vote. A clear margin yes (just like the overall vote) but not massively pro remain. Anything other than hard brexit is BRINO or worse.

Image
A glorious graph showing all but three areas voting to remain.

That you'll treat you closest neighbour and significant market like this whilst doing nothing over Russia's involvement in MH17 and being subject to EU sanctions over Crimea says a lot about Ireland and the supporters of this nonsense.

A quick snapshot right now shows 3 British aircraft over Irish airspace, one only just clipped it around LONDONDerry and right now there were 52 Aer Lingus and Ryanair aircraft over the UK. It's quite laughable that remoaners and irelend support this but have no problem with Russians flying to, from or over!

But yeah, it's only the UK who will suffer!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:18 pm

sevenair wrote:
44% of votes in NI were to leave so it's not like it was an overwhelmingly pro remain vote.



I just love this!

How you twist and you turn!

By your very own logic: it's not like the 2016 referendum was an overwhelmingly pro leave vote

indeed!
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:19 pm

It was a margin measurable in millions my friend. Won fairly and squarely. Despite the £9m government propaganda, Obama, BBC, SKY, the EU, the Governemnt all being pro remain and anti brexit and not to mention George's project fear and threats of an emergency budget.

We are leaving. Leave won. You lost. Move on.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:20 pm

The people had their vote. The people's vote was to leave the EU and leave we shall.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:20 pm

Tugger wrote:
Again the Airbus thing is mostly made up. The plants producing the parts are not changing, the production processes are not changing, the parts are not changing. That means the only thing at issue is how hard parties involved want to make things. And from what I can tell the EU wants to make it hard and painful.


Certification is based on a network of trust.

And if the UK just drops out of the EU without any kind of agreement, the british certification authority is immediately ripped out of that network of trust as well, because it is no longer a part of the accredited, respected and networked european authority.

Meaning in the worst case scenario all certifications which had heretofore been signed off by the british certification authority will suddenly stop being acknowledged and the parts produced in exactly the same way are now simply uncertified. And without certification they become worthless all of a sudden.

The UK will probably scramble to get their authorities accredited with all the other ones (the european one in particular!) but that is not happening automatically. It requires additional negotiations.

Brext just rips everything apart and destroys those established networks and connections, and the brexiteers just keep ignoring the consequences of their reckless campaign.
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2751
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:21 pm

sevenair wrote:
A glorious graph showing all but three areas voting to remain.


More comedy gold sevenair!

Maybe you are predicting the result of the next referendum / peoples vote?!!! :rotfl:
 
sevenair
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:22 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
sevenair wrote:

A quick snapshot right now shows 3 British aircraft over Irish airspace, one only just clipped it around LONDONDerry and right now there were 52 Aer Lingus and Ryanair aircraft over the UK.

But yeah, it's only the UK who will suffer!


Then it's too bad for the UK that this isn't a bilateral issue. If it was, the U.K. Would have the upper hand. But it's not, and flying around the UK is a lot easier than flying around the EU. Who has more to lose?

Anyway, it's all very unlikely to happen. All this example does is demonstrate the "strength in numbers" aspect of the EU. Without it, Ireland would be easy pickings for the UK. Within it, not so much. Which gives you a hint about how post-Brexit UK is likely to fare when dealing with the EU, China, India, the US and just about everyone that is worth doing business with.


Yes quite. It's only the UK that will suffer. No mention of the Irish, no mention of LON-DUB being a key air route, no mention of the 20,000,000 visitors less that Spain will be devoid of and that's without having to 'pay to get in'. Oh it's ok, we previously ascertained that Spain will most replace us with Russians and Poles!

I might invest in a log cabin given that we won't be able to fly anywhere.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2316
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:24 pm

sevenair wrote:

A quick snapshot right now shows 3 British aircraft over Irish airspace, one only just clipped it around LONDONDerry and right now there were 52 Aer Lingus and Ryanair aircraft over the UK.

But yeah, it's only the UK who will suffer!


Then it's too bad for the UK that this isn't a bilateral issue. If it was, the U.K. Would have the upper hand. But it's not, and flying around the UK is a lot easier than flying around the EU. Who has more to lose?

Anyway, it's all very unlikely to happen. All this example does is demonstrate the "strength in numbers" aspect of the EU. Without it, Ireland would be easy pickings for the UK. Within it, not so much. Which gives you a hint about how post-Brexit UK is likely to fare when dealing with the EU, China, India, the US and just about everyone that is worth doing business with.
 
sevenair
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:27 pm

Klaus wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Again the Airbus thing is mostly made up. The plants producing the parts are not changing, the production processes are not changing, the parts are not changing. That means the only thing at issue is how hard parties involved want to make things. And from what I can tell the EU wants to make it hard and painful.


Certification is based on a network of trust.

And if the UK just drops out of the EU without any kind of agreement, the british certification authority is immediately ripped out of that network of trust as well, because it is no longer a part of the accredited, respected and networked european authority.

Meaning in the worst case scenario all certifications which had heretofore been signed off by the british certification authority will suddenly stop being acknowledged and the parts produced in exactly the same way are now simply uncertified. And without certification they become worthless all of a sudden.

The UK will probably scramble to get their authorities accredited with all the other ones (the european one in particular!) but that is not happening automatically. It requires additional negotiations.

Brext just rips everything apart and destroys those established networks and connections, and the brexiteers just keep ignoring the consequences of their reckless campaign.


That's what happens when you have remainers negotiating a leave deal. If, like Jezza suggested, we triggered A50 the day after the vote and got down to business of delivering real brexit and leaving the EU to continue on WTO (with its costs and benefits) we could have had a lot in place. As it happens the remainers in government have messed about for well over two years, came up with a fudge which we all know will be rejected and now have tiny insignificant countries like Ireland throwing their weight around. WTO & hard brexit would have sorted that out a long time ago.

Anyway I'm just looking forward to the free weeks off work! Apparently our planes will be grounded as they're going to suddenly become unsafe, we will be banned from overflying anywhere, won't be able to land, and even if we can the passengeros will need visas and will need to pay to get into Spain.
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2751
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Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:30 pm

sevenair wrote:
Nup. It's the same sevenair who thinks that if the EU withold information from us that it only fair for us to provide ours at cost. I don't see why we should give the EU the data for free when the EU are quite happy to put our citizens at risk by withholding their data. You get outraged over me wanting to provide access for a nominal fee but are totally fine with the EU witholding their data, yet I'm the bad guy? But it's the EU and you're a remoaner ergo the EU is all things wonderful and the UK is the only one who'll have consequences. It's not the UK's job to monitor the thousands of new 'doctors, lawyers, artisans and poets' that make the crossing to Europe every year. Still, it's only British lives, right? I mean they voted to leave and so deserve terror attacks.

The island of Ireland already has many major divergences already. Currency, healthcare systems, tax, aviation tax, VAT, speed limits, official languages and two governments. It's a billion at most in trade going across that border. Given that Ireland would suffer greatly (I know, it's hard to comprehend for you remoaners) in the event of a hard brexit, it's time they change their attitude of 'it's a British matter for the British to sort out' whilst at the same time rubbishing any progress. A UK out of the EU on WTO terms would mean that the border is very much a joint British/Irish issue. You lot are just dancing to Leo's anti British tune in the hope that it stops brexit.

It won't! We are leaving the EU. Hard brexit is getting more likely by the day.


Oh dear, let me explain again sevenair - I would not be happy for any country to hold back terrorist information for cash - but you would - that is a big big difference. I questioned your morals then, and I do so again.

I see you have no answer for my question (or indeed Arion640 who has gone very quiet on this question).?

Brexiter Logic: wanting a hard but open border, with friction-less trade but where tariffs can be paid, where people are free to come and go but where there must be controlled immigration!

Welcome to Padradox Central!
 
sevenair
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:34 pm

But you're ok with the EU withholding data completely!?! I question your morals that you happy clap the EU despite them threatening to completely withold terror data and put our citizens, including 3,000,000 rEU nationals at risk. Wow, you must really hate the UK. Must be a labour voter!

It's quite simple. There already is a border as explained. There are already several pretty major differences and divergence on both sides of the border and this will likely continue. It's been given way too much airtime. Could you imagine if we said to Ireland 'no you can't join Schengen due to the border'. It wouldn't wash. I don't recall the GFA making the suggestion that it meant both countries must remain in the EU. Nor do I recall being told that Lisbon would mean that it would not be possible to leave.

Magbe Arion640 has a job? It's amazing it doesn't matter what time of day I visit you're ALWAYS here!
 
sevenair
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Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:38 pm

We simply won't allow parts of our union to be annexed by the EU spurred on by those seeking a unified Ireland and fuelled by their hatred for the U.K.

The backstop is a non option and goes agains the GFA. It incentivises a no deal but with the benefit (to them) of annexing NI. People are quick to claim that the Irish border solution will increase tensions but ignore the issue that annexation of NI and divergence from rUK would also create a lot of tension. This way we get the inevitable no deal but maintain the integrity of our union.
Last edited by sevenair on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
sevenair
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:45 pm

It's also telling that remoaners claim the Irish border will lead to tensions but completely ignore the fact that banning the 20+ aircraft based in NI from flying over Ireland, because that's not going to cause any tension at all, is it?
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:05 pm

sevenair wrote:
That's what happens when you have remainers negotiating a leave deal. If, like Jezza suggested, we triggered A50 the day after the vote and got down to business of delivering real brexit and leaving the EU to continue on WTO (with its costs and benefits) we could have had a lot in place.


You'd have bombed a huge hole through your own floor by defaulting on all of the UK's standing commitments with the European Union in that case, effectively declaring the UK bankrupt and setting any hopes on fire to ever achieve treaties with the EU or with anyone else after demonstrating yourselves to be totally and completely untrustworthy with regards to standing and future treaties and with a "trash" credit rating.

I know that is not what you'd want with a reckless no-deal Brexit, but that is what you'd get as an automatic consequence, not because anyone was particularly "mean" to you.

As it happens the remainers in government have messed about for well over two years, came up with a fudge which we all know will be rejected and now have tiny insignificant countries like Ireland throwing their weight around. WTO & hard brexit would have sorted that out a long time ago.


Yeah, in your fantasy world where unicorns roam and rainbows have pots of gold at both of their really-reachable ends.

In real life, the Republic of Ireland is a full member of the European Union, so Ireland is anything but "insignificant". It's got the whole weight of the 450-million-and 27-countries-strong EU behind it, which is the whole point of how EU membership works; But the brexiteers have never had a clue about that, apparently, which explains the vote among other things.

And the UK government has pretty much completely failed to engage in any negotiations with the EU because it has been fully and totally occupied with the backstabbing and infighting within the Tory party (Labour has neutralized and lobotomized itself in a shameful display of dereliction of civic duty).

And none of the leavers has ever produced any actually workable proposals for Brexit – they've only ever kicked and pushed the yoke forward for a direct and utterly annihilating total crash.

Anyway I'm just looking forward to the free weeks off work! Apparently our planes will be grounded as they're going to suddenly become unsafe, we will be banned from overflying anywhere, won't be able to land, and even if we can the passengeros will need visas and will need to pay to get into Spain.


If you're already looking forward to being furloughed, you'll just love being unemployed!
 
sevenair
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:08 pm

I wonder if the RAF will be subject to the same airspace ban as BA, Thomas Cook, easy etc or if we will still be elected to help Ireland in the event of a hijacking?

There is another agreement permitting British aircraft to fly over Ireland which the Irish government chooses not to publicise. The Irish Department of Defence and Department of Foreign Affairs with the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) have entered into a bilateral agreement with their British counterparts: the RAF, the Civil Aviation Authority, the Ministry of Defence, and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office that in the event of a terrorist hijacking, RAF jets would be scrambled to defend Ireland


I suppose France is just that little bit further, they'll help I'm sure. I mean if we can't be trusted to be in on Galileo then surely we can't be trusted to provide defence. I mean if easyJet can't even fly to the Costas via Ireland then what hope is there of our military being allowed in too?
Last edited by sevenair on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sevenair
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:10 pm

Klaus wrote:
sevenair wrote:
That's what happens when you have remainers negotiating a leave deal. If, like Jezza suggested, we triggered A50 the day after the vote and got down to business of delivering real brexit and leaving the EU to continue on WTO (with its costs and benefits) we could have had a lot in place.


You'd have bombed a huge hole through your own floor by defaulting on all of the UK's standing commitments with the European Union in that case, effectively declaring the UK bankrupt and setting any hopes on fire to ever achieve treaties with the EU or with anyone else after demonstrating yourselves to be totally and completely untrustworthy with regards to standing and future treaties and with a "trash" credit rating.

I know that is not what you'd want with a reckless no-deal Brexit, but that is what you'd get as an automatic consequence, not because anyone was particularly "mean" to you.

As it happens the remainers in government have messed about for well over two years, came up with a fudge which we all know will be rejected and now have tiny insignificant countries like Ireland throwing their weight around. WTO & hard brexit would have sorted that out a long time ago.


Yeah, in your fantasy world where unicorns roam and rainbows have pots of gold at both of their really-reachable ends.

In real life, the Republic of Ireland is a full member of the European Union, so Ireland is anything but "insignificant". It's got the whole weight of the 450-million-and 27-countries-strong EU behind it, which is the whole point of how EU membership works; But the brexiteers have never had a clue about that, apparently, which explains the vote among other things.

And the UK government has pretty much completely failed to engage in any negotiations with the EU because it has been fully and totally occupied with the backstabbing and infighting within the Tory party (Labour has neutralized and lobotomized itself in a shameful display of dereliction of civic duty).

And none of the leavers has ever produced any actually workable proposals for Brexit – they've only ever kicked and pushed the yoke forward for a direct and utterly annihilating total crash.

Anyway I'm just looking forward to the free weeks off work! Apparently our planes will be grounded as they're going to suddenly become unsafe, we will be banned from overflying anywhere, won't be able to land, and even if we can the passengeros will need visas and will need to pay to get into Spain.


If you're already looking forward to being furloughed, you'll just love being unemployed!


Labour have been completely inconsistent on brexit so they're in no better name.

The only workable proposal for brexit is hard brexit and WTO. Sadly having a remainers PM and chancellor was only going to end up one way and that's with the brexit fudge which isn't brexit, is equally unworkable and will be slapped down.

And unemployed? Girl please, we've invested millions in the UK since the vote, just like everyone else has, including Ryanair.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:26 pm

sevenair wrote:
But you're ok with the EU withholding data completely!?! I question your morals that you happy clap the EU despite them threatening to completely withold terror data and put our citizens, including 3,000,000 rEU nationals at risk. Wow, you must really hate the UK. Must be a labour voter!


It's got nothing at all to do with the silly, childish pettiness which seems to be the only thing that's seen by the Sun and the other absurd, lying tabloids.

The European Union is based on a set of fundamental human rights, and among those are rights to privacy and due process.

The quick and easy sharing of data among EU members is only possible because it is no longer necessary to check if all the rights of a suspect in one country will have all their rights observed to exactly the same extent as in the requesting country.

But the UK wants to explicitly abandon these foundations of the EU and diverge from them, so the reasons why that easy sharing was even possible is destroyed by Brexit (like so many other things), so the easy data sharing automatically ends with those foundations falling away on the UK side. It's got nothing to do with anybody being "mean" to the UK, it is an automatic consequence of the damage Brexit will be doing, unless a new basis is negotiated which provides the same safeguards, but with the UK seemingly intent on degrading their human rights standards relative to the EU, I don't see much of a possibility there.

It's quite simple. There already is a border as explained. There are already several pretty major differences and divergence on both sides of the border and this will likely continue. It's been given way too much airtime. Could you imagine if we said to Ireland 'no you can't join Schengen due to the border'. It wouldn't wash. I don't recall the GFA making the suggestion that it meant both countries must remain in the EU. Nor do I recall being told that Lisbon would mean that it would not be possible to leave.


Actually, the open irish border with the UK was indeed the primary reason why Ireland could not join Schengen, because the UK remained outside of it.

And no, the border issue may be something you just don't care about, but if you care so little about the wellbeing of the northern irish population you should just let them go and re-unite with the Republic.

Because when the UK rips Northern Ireland out of the EU, the UK being in the WTO (assuming it gets its full membership reinstated eventually!) again automatically forces the UK to harden the intra-irish border, because that border is now a WTO external border and must be controlled according to WTO rules – both by the UK and by the EU, and neither of them can be in the WTO and neglect to control their external borders. Both will be forced by Brexit to harden the border - it is by no means an arbitrary decision they might just take the other way!

But that is again something you, the Sun, Boris and all the others have never really considered, have you?
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:36 pm

sevenair wrote:
Labour have been completely inconsistent on brexit so they're in no better name.


Pretty much what I've said. Remaining even behind such a completely hapless, incompetent, openly self-destructing government party is quite a feat for the main opposition party, but Corbyn's Labour has in fact managed it!

The only workable proposal for brexit is hard brexit and WTO. Sadly having a remainers PM and chancellor was only going to end up one way and that's with the brexit fudge which isn't brexit, is equally unworkable and will be slapped down.


It looks like you have no idea what a hard Brexit to WTO would actually mean. It would be like blowing up your whole apartment block because you yourself are going through a messy divorce and you've completely lost the plot, with absolutely zero regard to the destruction and its consequences for everybody else.

And unemployed? Girl please, we've invested millions in the UK since the vote, just like everyone else has, including Ryanair.


In hopes for negotiated agreements which you're apparently dead-set against. Corporations will eventually write off such sunk costs when there is no hope of ever recovering them, and your preferred Brexit outcome would be exactly such a situation.
 
sevenair
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:38 pm

Ireland didn't join schengen because it valued the free travel area more than it did schengen.

You completely and totally ignore the consequences of a new Irish border, in addition to the current one, which would reside in the Irish Sea. It's telling that time and time again remoaners discuss the land border and the supposed issues it would cause, despite there already being numerous differences on both sides of the border yet completely ignore the consequences of the new Irish border in the Irish Sea. Thankfully that'll never happen. Not even labour could sign up for that one!

EU borders have to be hardened under EU laws just but there is no law that states WTO countries require a hard border, so for Leoboy to simply brush it off as nothing to do with him is nonsense. The legally required hard border would come from the EU side, not the WTO member.

The Irish border cannot and will not be allowed to deny us our independence.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Phase 3: an enthusiastic jump from the cliff-edge

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:51 pm

sevenair wrote:
Ireland didn't join schengen because it valued the free travel area more than it did schengen.


Exactly: They could not join Schengen because of the common travel area with Northern Ireland while the UK remained outside of Schengen. That made it impossible

You completely and totally ignore the consequences of a new Irish border, in addition to the current one, which would reside in the Irish Sea. It's telling that time and time again remoaners discuss the land border and the supposed issues it would cause, despite there already being numerous differences on both sides of the border yet completely ignore the consequences of the new Irish border in the Irish Sea. Thankfully that'll never happen. Not even labour could sign up for that one!


It is very simple: I ignore any internal UK issues caused by the Brexit desired by the UK itself because that is simply damage you're doing to yourself and not our EU27's business. The only aspect that affects us is the Good Friday Agreement which the EU is a signatory and a guaranteeing power to, because it involves right now two (UK+Ireland) but soon still one EU member country (Ireland) and the intra-irish border is crucial to it.

You can't seriously complain to us that your own harebrained Brexit scheme is doing damage to the UK internally – we've been warning you about that at the top of our lungs for decades already and you couldn't be bothered to listen, so now that you're actually doing it it stops being our problem and you'll have to deal with it alone.

But the intra-irish border is very much Ireland's problem and so all of the EU27's problem, so that is what we insist will have to be resolved correctly even while the rest of the UK sinks into its self-created chaos and decline.

EU borders have to be hardened under EU laws just but there is no law that states WTO countries require a hard border, so for Leoboy to simply brush it off as nothing to do with him is nonsense. The legally required hard border would come from the EU side, not the WTO member.


You're simply wrong. The WTO demands that any WTO member defends its external borders against violation of the WTO rules, quotas and tariffs. That is central to how the WTO works and you can get sued by other WTO member countries if you don't.

The Irish border cannot and will not be allowed to deny us our independence.


Then let Northern Ireland go. You've painted yourselves into such a tight corner with your ill-considered Brexit that you've destroyed almost any other options you could have had.
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