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Dieuwer
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TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:35 pm

With the increasing rhetoric, sanctions and threats flying between the USA and Turkey (the latest being Turkey planning to raid the US Incirlik military base), will TK become a casualty? I can imagine TK be banned from flying to/from the USA if heads get even hotter than they already are.
 
AF022
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:12 pm

TK has three daily departures from JFK. Once high season is over maybe they'll reduce frequencies here.
 
Jetty
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 pm

I don't think the ability to fly to the US is TK's largest risk, the overall economy of Turkey poses a much greater threat. The operator of the new airport might also get in heavy weather having a large amount of foreign debt which becomes harder to repay with the plummeting lira.

Erdogan has the solution though:

Erdogan framed Turkey's currency crisis as a 'national battle' against economic enemies, including the U.S., saying: 'if they have their dollar, we have the people, we have Allah'.
:eyepopping:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... emies.html
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 pm

The weak lira will hurt traffic and increase their costs (in lira). No US citizens will be going to turkey to take advatage of the weak lira. I do not see how it doesn't impact TK.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:32 pm

Lets keep few things in mind.

1) Weak Lira broadly helps TK. They just published their Q2 profits yesterday. They earn more in foreign currencies, while large sections of their cost base in Lira.

2) US visitors make up the minority of clients onboard TK US flights. Flights primarily serve 3rd nation citizens connecting via IST and Turks.

3) Not that I expect a loss of air links, but in the worst case scenario, the US routes makes up under 3 per cent of all TK system enplaments.


I'll leave the political discussions to Non-Av where they belong.
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Varsity1
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:37 pm

Turkey has also soured relations with the EU recently. It's a slippery slope to nowhere.

I would suspect travelers would seek connections in more stable ME hubs (UAE especially).
 
RobertS975
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:40 pm

Many of the leading cruise lines used to use Istanbul as a cruise terminus... that hasn't been the case for the last several years now.
 
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mercure1
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:48 pm

TK and Turkey will be fine.

They have long history of external or internal shocks and are probably one of the most resilient nations I have ever witnessed. Meanwhile, TK has been very smartly led and profitable several decades now having built a strong balance sheet and global airline brand.
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Insertnamehere
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:15 pm

TK relies on connecting traffic quite a bit and they have very few relative flights to the US with 10 cities, while that is not a small amount of cities it is not their mainstay in terms of connecting passengers. However, after the coup, Americans have been steering clear already from Turkey and I don't think US tourism to Turkey will be a thing for another few years making the current heat up in hostilities a non issue.
 
Galwayman
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:59 pm

[twoid][/twoid]Week lira helps TK . USA is in in decline , it’s about managing the USAs implosion and riding the waves
 
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scbriml
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:45 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey has also soured relations with the EU recently. It's a slippery slope to nowhere.

I would suspect travelers would seek connections in more stable ME hubs (UAE especially).


Transit pax really couldn't care less about the "stability" of the country as long as the airport works OK and is secure.

I believe European holiday traffic is back to previously high levels. Turkey is a cheap and friendly holiday destination. A weak Lira will make it even more attractive.
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Bobloblaw
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey has also soured relations with the EU recently. It's a slippery slope to nowhere.

I would suspect travelers would seek connections in more stable ME hubs (UAE especially).


Transit pax really couldn't care less about the "stability" of the country as long as the airport works OK and is secure.

I believe European holiday traffic is back to previously high levels. Turkey is a cheap and friendly holiday destination. A weak Lira will make it even more attractive.


Which explains all the transit traffic though Saudi Arabia and Iran or on JAT in the 1990s..
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:02 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Lets keep few things in mind.

1) Weak Lira broadly helps TK. They just published their Q2 profits yesterday. They earn more in foreign currencies, while large sections of their cost base in Lira.

2) US visitors make up the minority of clients onboard TK US flights. Flights primarily serve 3rd nation citizens connecting via IST and Turks.

3) Not that I expect a loss of air links, but in the worst case scenario, the US routes makes up under 3 per cent of all TK system enplaments.


I'll leave the political discussions to Non-Av where they belong.


I am not so sure that a weak Lira helps TK. It is true that the foreign currency they earn will be worth more in Lira. However, their non-Lira expenses (landing fees in other nations, leases and fuel) will go up considerably. Also Turkish originating traffic will decline and it is unclear that there will be a tourist boon with a weak Lira given the political situation. If the Turkish Central Bank has to defend the Lira by raising rates, that will certainly hurt.
 
Galwayman
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:16 pm

Sterling is in massive decline too ( brexshit ) ... lots of U.K. gammon will head to Turkey with the week lira
 
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Aesma
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey has also soured relations with the EU recently. It's a slippery slope to nowhere.

I would suspect travelers would seek connections in more stable ME hubs (UAE especially).


Transit pax really couldn't care less about the "stability" of the country as long as the airport works OK and is secure.


Well is it secure ? I seem to remember a terrorist attack there with lots of deaths.
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mict
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm

Aesma wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey has also soured relations with the EU recently. It's a slippery slope to nowhere.

I would suspect travelers would seek connections in more stable ME hubs (UAE especially).


Transit pax really couldn't care less about the "stability" of the country as long as the airport works OK and is secure.


Well is it secure ? I seem to remember a terrorist attack there with lots of deaths.


Happened outside security. Turkish airports have security as soon as you walk inside, can't even access check in lanes without going through security.
Plus it could happen in Europe too... (BRU)
 
Yossarian22
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:33 pm

mict wrote:
Aesma wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Transit pax really couldn't care less about the "stability" of the country as long as the airport works OK and is secure.


Well is it secure ? I seem to remember a terrorist attack there with lots of deaths.


Happened outside security. Turkish airports have security as soon as you walk inside, can't even access check in lanes without going through security.
Plus it could happen in Europe too... (BRU)


The failed coup put me off. I am hardly an overly cautious traveler, plenty of Southeast Asian stamps in my passport. I even presented a paper at a Turkish academic conference , many years ago. Since the coup that occured, I’d rather not transfer through IST if I am trying to travel from Europe to Asia. Stability is definetely something I worry about as a transit passenger, as things like coups could really snarl my travel plans.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:41 pm

scbriml wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey has also soured relations with the EU recently. It's a slippery slope to nowhere.

I would suspect travelers would seek connections in more stable ME hubs (UAE especially).


Transit pax really couldn't care less about the "stability" of the country as long as the airport works OK and is secure.

I believe European holiday traffic is back to previously high levels. Turkey is a cheap and friendly holiday destination. A weak Lira will make it even more attractive.


Well if I could find another airline that has as good connections to southern Ukraine as TK, I would use it. TK can get my wife to from IAH to ODS in 16 to 17 hours. The rest of Star Alliance takes 30 to 40 hours. My wife was scheduled to fly ODS-IST-IAH exactly a week after the bomb exploded at IST. We took advantage of the offer to reschedule her flight to as late as the end of July 2016 for no charge. Then two weeks before she was scheduled to fly back to the US, they had the coup. We rescheduled for the start if September for a modest fee. The main things TK has going for it is the minimal connection time each way at IST, the baggage allotment for flights to and from North America, and price. If other airlines, especially Austrian could offer decent connection times both ways, I would use them.
 
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mercure1
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:44 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
I am not so sure that a weak Lira helps TK. It is true that the foreign currency they earn will be worth more in Lira. However, their non-Lira expenses (landing fees in other nations, leases and fuel) will go up considerably. Also Turkish originating traffic will decline and it is unclear that there will be a tourist boon with a weak Lira given the political situation. If the Turkish Central Bank has to defend the Lira by raising rates, that will certainly hurt.


I am not sure you get the point. They earn far more foreign income than they earn Lira, while a larger portion of their cost is in Lira.

More specifically as announced at this week's earnings, 86 percent of total group revenue is in currencies like USD/EUR/GBP, while 73 per cent of cost was. Remember bulk of labor, airport cost are in Turkey and paid in Lira.

In reality, TK is marking a currency transaction gain in recent quarters as they end up with foreign currencies that buy much more in Lira's
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LAXintl
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:00 am

Obviously major economic distress would effect TK, however as management has stated the weaker TL has been a tailwind for the airline. As stated before, the carrier earns more foreign than it pays out and has seen net currency benefit along with seeing its unit cost like CASK remain low as large portion is based on TL not foreign currencies.
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ltbewr
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:09 am

It is sad how the political, economic, ethnic, religious and refugee situations in Turkey is going to affect TK. They have been growing fast (maybe too fast ?) serve destinations not served by a number of airlines as well as them, seem to be giving good service for reasonable fares per comments here.
 
sw733
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:15 am

Yossarian22 wrote:
mict wrote:
Aesma wrote:

Well is it secure ? I seem to remember a terrorist attack there with lots of deaths.


Happened outside security. Turkish airports have security as soon as you walk inside, can't even access check in lanes without going through security.
Plus it could happen in Europe too... (BRU)


The failed coup put me off. I am hardly an overly cautious traveler, plenty of Southeast Asian stamps in my passport. I even presented a paper at a Turkish academic conference , many years ago. Since the coup that occured, I’d rather not transfer through IST if I am trying to travel from Europe to Asia. Stability is definetely something I worry about as a transit passenger, as things like coups could really snarl my travel plans.


Visits to SE Asia, and a visit to Turkey many years ago, you rebel you.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:18 am

mercure1 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
I am not so sure that a weak Lira helps TK. It is true that the foreign currency they earn will be worth more in Lira. However, their non-Lira expenses (landing fees in other nations, leases and fuel) will go up considerably. Also Turkish originating traffic will decline and it is unclear that there will be a tourist boon with a weak Lira given the political situation. If the Turkish Central Bank has to defend the Lira by raising rates, that will certainly hurt.


I am not sure you get the point. They earn far more foreign income than they earn Lira, while a larger portion of their cost is in Lira.

More specifically as announced at this week's earnings, 86 percent of total group revenue is in currencies like USD/EUR/GBP, while 73 per cent of cost was. Remember bulk of labor, airport cost are in Turkey and paid in Lira.

In reality, TK is marking a currency transaction gain in recent quarters as they end up with foreign currencies that buy much more in Lira's


Much of their airport costs will be paid in local currency whatever that is. LHR wont accept Lira for landing fees, gates etc. Fuel and leases will be in USD.

An economic contagion will not be good for Turkey. To think that TK is somehow immune from Turkey's economic problems is unlikely.
 
Socrates17
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:18 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
The weak lira will hurt traffic and increase their costs (in lira). No US citizens will be going to turkey to take advatage of the weak lira. I do not see how it doesn't impact TK.


I would, especially with a weaker lira. Istanbul is a lovely, cosmopolitan city. I might not go up country, or fulfill a bucket list dream to take the train from Istanbul to Ankara, but things would have to get much more fraught before I'd decline to travel to the city.
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mercure1
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:59 am

scbriml wrote:
I believe European holiday traffic is back to previously high levels. Turkey is a cheap and friendly holiday destination. A weak Lira will make it even more attractive.


:checkmark:

Yes tourism in 2018 seems to be headed for a record high. Foreign arrivals up 28.5% versus 2017, and well on way to beat historic high of 41.6mil visitors in 2014.

I know many from France headed to Turkey this year. Fantastic place to visit with lots of variety in things to do.(and for even cheaper now!)


Bobloblaw wrote:
Much of their airport costs will be paid in local currency whatever that is. LHR wont accept Lira for landing fees, gates etc. Fuel and leases will be in USD.


Again you miss the point. TK takes in more foreign currency than it pays out. It can pay LHR charges with the GBP it earns, aircraft leases with USD and have foreign currency left over.

Its cost is more in Lira's so, the weaker it gets the excess foreign currency it buys even more off. Hence why TK management has for several years said weaker TL is in general positive for the company finances.
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BlatantEcho
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:00 am

US citizen, heading to Turkey next month with gf and family for some holiday.
Less than zero concerns about anything. Exchange rate getting better is good news, should stay longer.

Anyone who reads the news and doesn’t travel because of some ‘crisis’ like this, clearly has never spent time in half of Africa.
It’s a constant state of emergency... I go anyway, who cares, life is short!
 
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globetrotter94
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:19 am

Regarding TK's relation with the Turkish lira, one member in this month's Turkish Aviation forum posted a breakdown of TK's earnings and expenses in terms of currencies. Those interested may want to check out that post... it did look like a much higher fraction of TK's expenses were in TRY than earnings, so depreciation of TRY works out to TK's advantage.
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brianK73
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:40 am

mercure1 wrote:
Again you miss the point. TK takes in more foreign currency than it pays out. It can pay LHR charges with the GBP it earns, aircraft leases with USD and have foreign currency left over.

Its cost is more in Lira's so, the weaker it gets the excess foreign currency it buys even more off. Hence why TK management has for several years said weaker TL is in general positive for the company finances.


TK might pay for its jet fuel needs in lira in Turkey, but wouldn't the most of that jet fuel come from imported oil paid in dollars?
And the same goes for the aircraft spare parts for maintenance.

If I understand correctly, Turkey is not a major oil producer, and its biggest supplier of oil is Iran which poses another issue.

It would be naive to assume prices for goods in lira for imported goods stay the same, so that the expenses in lira would see substantial increases.

Also, the TK's expenses paid in lira would certainly increase medium term due to the inflation as the result of the currency devaluation.
 
1g
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:57 am

brianK73 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
Again you miss the point. TK takes in more foreign currency than it pays out. It can pay LHR charges with the GBP it earns, aircraft leases with USD and have foreign currency left over.

Its cost is more in Lira's so, the weaker it gets the excess foreign currency it buys even more off. Hence why TK management has for several years said weaker TL is in general positive for the company finances.


TK might pay for its jet fuel needs in lira in Turkey, but wouldn't the most of that jet fuel come from imported oil paid in dollars?
And the same goes for the aircraft spare parts for maintenance.

If I understand correctly, Turkey is not a major oil producer, and its biggest supplier of oil is Iran which poses another issue.

It would be naive to assume prices for goods in lira for imported goods stay the same, so that the expenses in lira would see substantial increases.


Nominal lira costs will surely go up, but TK won't have a difficult time paying for it because 85% of their revenue is in foreign currencies (USD, EUR, GBP). 15% of their revenues is in Turkish Lira.
Jet fuel prices will go up in terms of Turkish Lira but dollar wise jet fuel prices will stay the same. Since most of TK's earnings are in foreign currency, they won't have trouble finding the dollars necessary to pay for things like jet fuel.

One thing that has changed is that TK has to do give a big pay raise for their pilots (who are paid in TL) so their wages can stay competitive in the international market.

TK is not immune to economic downturn, but compared to a lot of industries in Turkey they are in a better position against the falling TL because most of their revenue is in foreign currency.
 
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brianK73
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:27 pm

1g wrote:
Nominal lira costs will surely go up, but TK won't have a difficult time paying for it because 85% of their revenue is in foreign currencies (USD, EUR, GBP). 15% of their revenues is in Turkish Lira.
Jet fuel prices will go up in terms of Turkish Lira but dollar wise jet fuel prices will stay the same. Since most of TK's earnings are in foreign currency, they won't have trouble finding the dollars necessary to pay for things like jet fuel.

One thing that has changed is that TK has to do give a big pay raise for their pilots (who are paid in TL) so their wages can stay competitive in the international market.

TK is not immune to economic downturn, but compared to a lot of industries in Turkey they are in a better position against the falling TL because most of their revenue is in foreign currency.


Agreed.

In the mid- to long term, the large devaluation of the local currency and its negative impact on the local economy would increase the financial risk factor for the Turkish corporations' financing of aircraft purchase/lease agreements and it would most likely causes some increase the expenses paid in foreign currency as well.

And that is a fixed cost increased in foreign currency over 5~10 year period.
 
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globetrotter94
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:56 am

Socrates17 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
The weak lira will hurt traffic and increase their costs (in lira). No US citizens will be going to turkey to take advatage of the weak lira. I do not see how it doesn't impact TK.


I would, especially with a weaker lira. Istanbul is a lovely, cosmopolitan city. I might not go up country, or fulfill a bucket list dream to take the train from Istanbul to Ankara, but things would have to get much more fraught before I'd decline to travel to the city.


If you are talking about taking the YHT (yuksek hizli tren/high speed train) between Istanbul and Ankara, I would not worry about that at all! As a (non-Turkish) railfan, did it last month. The trains are quite secure. Metal detectors and document checks everywhere. As for the destination, police is everywhere in Ankara as well.
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Jetty
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:01 am

Socrates17 wrote:
I might not go up country, or fulfill a bucket list dream to take the train from Istanbul to Ankara, but things would have to get much more fraught before I'd decline to travel to the city.

Do go up country I’d say. For a rational judgement compare traffic casualties with casualties of armed conflict and/or terrorism. Afghanistan is supposedly unsafe but even there traffic causes more deaths than war.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:04 am

Fly Turkish Air from Atlanta to Istanbul. I would love to go back if the dollar is more powerful. Such much history and great food.
 
HTCone
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:33 am

And it’s been ages since they busted minimas and crash landed in the grass, or botched a go around and knackered both engines, or nearly hit a bus station (or was it a train station?) due descending below MSA on approach, things are looking up
 
PanHAM
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:49 am

The Devaluation of a currency leads automatically into Inflation. Even in short term, there will hardly be any Advantage ffor TK due to the fact that their cost base is Turkish Lira. Thaymay defer wage increases by 2 or 3 months but they have to pay fuel is real Money right now and that is US$. They have to pay for most items either in $ or in €. TK has a sizeable domestic Operation where most of the income is local. They can dump seats on international flights but a hub Operation always Needs a certain percentage of domestic, Turkey based Business travle and that will no longer be available since the Turkish economy is going down the drain. Could be that the new Airport becomes a whiite elephant.

And, as mentioned, the safety record of TK is not the best. Which is certainly not helpful in the present Situation.
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bgm
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:15 am

HTCone wrote:
And it’s been ages since they busted minimas and crash landed in the grass, or botched a go around and knackered both engines, or nearly hit a bus station (or was it a train station?) due descending below MSA on approach, things are looking up


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Between the current instability in Turkey, the rather dubious safety record of THY, and the many alternative transit points, I avoid IST for those reasons. Reading about pilot fatigue issues and the pilot shortage at TK doesn't inspire confidence either. :boggled:
 
Arion640
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:17 am

Galwayman wrote:
Sterling is in massive decline too ( brexshit ) ... lots of U.K. gammon will head to Turkey with the week lira


Brexbrilliant.
 
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ankaraflyjet
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:17 am

US declared trade wars on almost every nation so we should look at this from a broader angle. I do not think UAE is any more safe or stable as a transfer point, wait a few months as civil war in Iran breaks out or Iran closes the Hurmuz straits or Israel attacking Iran with missiles, UAE will not be any safe with ongoing war in their vicinity..Turkey will be fine actually I think…

Kushner is following his agenda step by step, war is imminent in the ME unfortunately….

Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey has also soured relations with the EU recently. It's a slippery slope to nowhere.

I would suspect travelers would seek connections in more stable ME hubs (UAE especially).
 
mats01776
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:09 am

LAXintl wrote:
Obviously major economic distress would effect TK, however as management has stated the weaker TL has been a tailwind for the airline. As stated before, the carrier earns more foreign than it pays out and has seen net currency benefit along with seeing its unit cost like CASK remain low as large portion is based on TL not foreign currencies.

I beg to differ.

When the Turkish currency is devalued significantly, the price of jet fuel produced from imported oil will rise significantly inside Turkey. Combined with the global hike in oil prices and inevitable inflation due to the currency devaluation, the expenses paid in Lira will rise albeit with some time lag.

So, combined with economic uncertainties and inflation due to the currency devaluation, TK's domestic side of operation in which the both revenue and expenses are in the local currency will inevitably suffer.

It is not prudent to assume the revenue/cost breakdown in currencies to remain constant in the face of drastic exchange rate swings.
 
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OA940
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:38 am

Unless sanctions are put in place TK will be fine. TK does the exact thing EK and QR do, and it does it well. It has the advantage of being within narrowbody range of all of Europe, which opens up several more markets. A very big part of their pax isn't Turkish, they are connecting pax. Often their tickets between a certain pair of destinations will be upwards of 100 euros cheaper than a direct flight, so I can assume that people are looking at them. And seeing how quickly they recovered from the coup of 2016 I can't say they'll have any problems unless they're caught in the crossfire of Erdogan and Trump, but that's not a conversation for this section of the forums.
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incitatus
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:28 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Lets keep few things in mind.

1) Weak Lira broadly helps TK. They just published their Q2 profits yesterday. They earn more in foreign currencies, while large sections of their cost base in Lira.

2) US visitors make up the minority of clients onboard TK US flights. Flights primarily serve 3rd nation citizens connecting via IST and Turks.

3) Not that I expect a loss of air links, but in the worst case scenario, the US routes makes up under 3 per cent of all TK system enplaments.


I'll leave the political discussions to Non-Av where they belong.


There must be something magic about TK then. In general, emerging market airlines suffer when their currencies devalue.

Also, US routes make 3% of enplanements BUT 15% of TK ASMs. We can always manipulate perception by using the true statistic that is convenient to our point.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
Varsity1
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:02 pm

Turkey's image of stability is in free fall right now. We're seeing the early seeds of the next Venezuela (without the oil revenue). QR, EY and EK stand to benefit.
 
JayBCNLON
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:13 pm

Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:06 pm

What TK had going for it was Turkey and Turkish aviation being solidly within NATO, and being able to build bridges to less secure areas in the world without becoming a target for terrorists as much as other European or American legacies would have been. It was clever in leveraging its geographic and cultural position. This has largely been compromised.
 
SCQ83
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:43 pm

Wasn't Turkish banned from the US relatively recently? Or am I dreaming?

Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey's image of stability is in free fall right now. We're seeing the early seeds of the next Venezuela (without the oil revenue). QR, EY and EK stand to benefit.


Not sure. It seems that German and Russian tourists have returned massively to Turkey for summer holidays this year. I guess as far as there are no new terrorist attacks; they will keep going there. Even a free-fall Lira will make Turkey a more interesting country to visit cost-wise.
 
Flyglobal
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:50 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Wasn't Turkish banned from the US relatively recently? Or am I dreaming?

Varsity1 wrote:
Turkey's image of stability is in free fall right now. We're seeing the early seeds of the next Venezuela (without the oil revenue). QR, EY and EK stand to benefit.


Not sure. It seems that German and Russian tourists have returned massively to Turkey for summer holidays this year. I guess as far as there are no new terrorist attacks; they will keep going there. Even a free-fall Lira will make Turkey a more interesting country to visit cost-wise.


Plus from other european countries, UF, France, .....

Same for Egypt by the way.

Flyglobal
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5828
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:56 pm

ankaraflyjet wrote:
US declared trade wars on almost every nation so we should look at this from a broader angle. I do not think UAE is any more safe or stable as a transfer point, wait a few months as civil war in Iran breaks out or Iran closes the Hurmuz straits or Israel attacking Iran with missiles, UAE will not be any safe with ongoing war in their vicinity..Turkey will be fine actually I think…


Wishful thinking.

The GTI developed by the Institute for Economics and Peace ranks the UAE with a terrorism threat lower than Switzerland. Turkey ranks in the Top 10 in the world, ahead of Libya or Egypt.

http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads ... x-2017.pdf

The US Department of State (out of four levels) ranks Turkey as Level 3 (Reconsider Travel) with some areas in Level 4 (Do Not Travel). Level 3 is Venezuela, Nigeria, Pakistan or Congo.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... urkey.html

The UAE is in the lowest level (1), again, like Switzerland.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... rates.html

Full map:

https://travelmaps.state.gov/TSGMap/
 
aircatalonia
Posts: 643
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 12:50 pm

Effects of the lira crisis on TK

Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:55 pm

What effect will this currency crisis have on the airline? Do they earn more foreign currency than they spend? Or is it the opposite?

It's interesting to see their website currently shows an exchange rate of 5.4 TRY to 1 USD which is way below the actual rate of 6.8.
 
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janders
Moderator
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Re: Effects of the lira crisis on TK

Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:58 pm

Already being discussed

>>>> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1401139
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
mict
Posts: 296
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:19 pm

Re: Effects of the lira crisis on TK

Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:58 pm

Only 14% of TK's revenue is in Turkish Lira meanwhile 27% of their expenses are in Lira. So it kinda helps from that point of view but you have to take into account that air travel in Turkey is gonna diminish with the crisis.
 
iadadd
Posts: 304
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:16 pm

Re: Effects of the lira crisis on TK

Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:18 am

Wouldn't a decrease in the value of the lira result in an increase of travelers to Turkey since everything would be relatively cheaper to USD and other hard currency holders ?

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