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mdavies06
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:36 am

I would exercise caution when we are looking at a 41% YTD drop to a currency and still manage it as business-as-usual. Sure if it is a single digit swing over a 12 month period TK can manage, but when we are talking about a large swing, you are going to have to start preparing for potentials like large increase in wages and supplier fees, potential disruption to supply chain as a result of supplier bankruptcies/contract renegotiation, a severe drop in domestic and regional POS which TK yield a high degree of pricing power. Be careful also is that it is not just the Lira that has dropped against the USD, most major and emerging market currencies this year has dropped versus the USD. If TK says they can manage a 41% swing, then I can't help but see it as TK simply shifting the inevitable increase in costs on to its suppliers and some of those are either going to cut them lose or somehow be propped up by third party support. Separately, TK need to think deeply about their future foreign currency funding obligations and how they see their credit rating will change going forward. Perhaps aircraft lending companies from more politically friendly countries can help.
 
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seahawk
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:21 am

TK is quite able to weather the storm, it only becomes critical if the Turkish economy tanks and unrest sees the number of tourists decline.
 
THY748i
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:44 am

TK has shown to be extremely resilient in times of crisis. They parked / leased out 10 % of their fleet during W 16/17 to cut costs and it payed off. Also passenger numbers to turkish carriers and tourist numbers to Turkey are back to an all time high and a weak lira will only help this (not that this alone would save the overall economic situation). Last but no least the numbers have been increasing despite of Erdogan not thanks to him. It‘s not only been known for a few days that there is an authocratic leadership in Turkey. Unless a serious political crisis breaks out tourists will benefit from the weak lira and locals will junp at every chance to get hold of som EUR/USD.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Effects of the lira crisis on TK

Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:25 am

iadadd wrote:
Wouldn't a decrease in the value of the lira result in an increase of travelers to Turkey since everything would be relatively cheaper to USD and other hard currency holders ?


I think this is a bit overrated. The Brazilian Real has also collapsed in the last few years against the EUR/USD and you don't see a boom in Euro/American tourism there. Also prices will eventually rise (inflation) to cope with this depreciation (that is what is happening in Argentina, for instance, and to a massive scale, in Venezuela).
 
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ankaraflyjet
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:24 am

Yes Brussels Airport was also ,considered to be very safe before the terrorist attacks took place a couple of years ago...I hope I will be wrong but the way I am reading the political and military developments in the region UAE may be unable to refrain itself from the coming storm in my opinion. I hope I will be wrong though….

SCQ83 wrote:
ankaraflyjet wrote:
US declared trade wars on almost every nation so we should look at this from a broader angle. I do not think UAE is any more safe or stable as a transfer point, wait a few months as civil war in Iran breaks out or Iran closes the Hurmuz straits or Israel attacking Iran with missiles, UAE will not be any safe with ongoing war in their vicinity..Turkey will be fine actually I think…


Wishful thinking.

The GTI developed by the Institute for Economics and Peace ranks the UAE with a terrorism threat lower than Switzerland. Turkey ranks in the Top 10 in the world, ahead of Libya or Egypt.

http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads ... x-2017.pdf

The US Department of State (out of four levels) ranks Turkey as Level 3 (Reconsider Travel) with some areas in Level 4 (Do Not Travel). Level 3 is Venezuela, Nigeria, Pakistan or Congo.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... urkey.html

The UAE is in the lowest level (1), again, like Switzerland.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... rates.html

Full map:

https://travelmaps.state.gov/TSGMap/
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:18 am

SCQ83 wrote:
The GTI developed by the Institute for Economics and Peace ranks the UAE with a terrorism threat lower than Switzerland. Turkey ranks in the Top 10 in the world, ahead of Libya or Egypt.

http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads ... x-2017.pdf


If you look down the bottom of the list of countries ranked according to the GTI score, you will se some rather strange results. This ranking seems to be balasted with Institute's agenda the same way its "Peace Index" is.
 
ExDubai
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:53 am

seahawk wrote:
TK is quite able to weather the storm, it only becomes critical if the Turkish economy tanks and unrest sees the number of tourists decline.

Let’s see if the pilots are able to weather this storm. Esp. the expats are suffering a lot with the current currency development.
Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven
 
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brianK73
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Re: Effects of the lira crisis on TK

Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:23 am

iadadd wrote:
Wouldn't a decrease in the value of the lira result in an increase of travelers to Turkey since everything would be relatively cheaper to USD and other hard currency holders ?


Which simply means that each inbound traveler to Turkey spend less hard currency in the country for a given level/quantities of products and services.

For Turkey to maintain the same revenue from the inbound tourism in hard currency, 40% decline in the value of Lira must be accompanied by a 67% increase in tourist count.
Of course, these assumptions are too simplistic, since the spending habits of each tourist and the inflation rate must also be taken into account.

More worrisome issues for the Turkish economy include drastically increased cost of repaying loans made in hard currencies from foreign entities and resultant disruption to stabiities of the Turkish financial institutions as well as capital flight out of the country.
Last edited by brianK73 on Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:30 am

ExDubai wrote:
seahawk wrote:
TK is quite able to weather the storm, it only becomes critical if the Turkish economy tanks and unrest sees the number of tourists decline.

Let’s see if the pilots are able to weather this storm. Esp. the expats are suffering a lot with the current currency development.


Which can be a blessing in such situations, as it means less pilots to pay which makes it easier to ground aircraft.
 
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:54 am

The currency depriciation should not have too much of an effect on a global airline like TK. However the threat of sanctions and political instability will probably lower investor sentiment and business travel demand to Turkey.
 
ncflyer
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:00 pm

Right. I don’t think there’s enough discussion here of top line impact. Airlines are such a fixed cost business— even if TK “only” loses 5-10% of revenue to the US because of sanctions or negative press coverage of Turkey, that essentially comes right off the bottom line.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:36 pm

PanHAM wrote:
The Devaluation of a currency leads automatically into Inflation. Even in short term, there will hardly be any Advantage ffor TK due to the fact that their cost base is Turkish Lira. Thaymay defer wage increases by 2 or 3 months but they have to pay fuel is real Money right now and that is US$. They have to pay for most items either in $ or in €. TK has a sizeable domestic Operation where most of the income is local. They can dump seats on international flights but a hub Operation always Needs a certain percentage of domestic, Turkey based Business travle and that will no longer be available since the Turkish economy is going down the drain. Could be that the new Airport becomes a whiite elephant.

And, as mentioned, the safety record of TK is not the best. Which is certainly not helpful in the present Situation.


I don't usually agree with Panham a lot, but he is right about the currency.
A currency fall needs to be turned into inflation quickly or risk sinking the population into poverty progressively.
So if a TK flight attendant is earning for example 10.000 TKL today, they would have to see a wage increase to 14.000 soon or else they will lose purchase power.
So to think that TK will benefit is short-sighted. If they do benefit, it will be short term and at the expense of their workforce, until salary indexes realign the imbalace.
If salary indexes don't realign, you are going to hit the GDP directly and Turkey will spiral into a crisis.
What is certain though is that their domestic market will be hit pretty badly.

Also, bad diplomatic relations with the US or Europe will curb investments.
The metals sector for instance is already hit directly. TK will be hit somehow.

All these little things add up quickly.

So the best thing would be for Erdogan to suck his pride and talk to POTUS about a diplomatic solution.
Ok, there is a new import tax on steel and aluminium. How much of it can you force on the U.S. customers and how much will you have to mitigate with other means.
This is the game that Western countries have become good at playing. For every problem, there is a solution.
It's a competition of who's the smartest mob in the world...
 
aviationaware
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:42 pm

mercure1 wrote:
TK and Turkey will be fine.


TK is going the way of Venezuela if they don't get rid of Erdogan.

The US import duties on Turkish steel and aluminum are a total non-issue economically. What isn't a non-issue is the way Erdogan is ruining the Turkish economy by interfering with the central bank. The international investors have had enough. They are jumping off in droves. The lira will lose even more value, many companies in Turkey will go bankrupt. Turkey is facing a huge local economic crisis and very bad chances of recovery as long as Erdogan is at the helm. That man undertands nothing of economics and he has gotten rid of all people whose good advice lead him to create an economic boom all those years ago early 2000s. He is alone and clueless. Very bad combination. A good reminder that someone with a real degree is probably a better choice to lead a government than a religious zealot without proper education.

Long story short, when Turkey inevitably crashes, so will Turkish Airlines. That new airport Erdogan is building will never run near capacity. As TK's home market evaporates, they will rely solely on connecting traffic which will not suffice to sustain the airline.

One day the Turkish people will have enough of inflation, unemployment and all the other gift of Erdogan's and they will hunt him through the streets. They will go for a democratically elected, secular candidate and recover economically. Then TK will rise again.

This is how the next 10 years in Turkish aviation will play out. Thank me later for my prescience.

Waterbomber wrote:

So the best thing would be for Erdogan to suck his pride and talk to POTUS about a diplomatic solution. .


This is not about Donald Trump. This is a purely domestic crisis caused by Erdogan turning Turkey into a despotate. The tariff thing is a side show of miniscule significance.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:11 pm

aviationaware wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
TK and Turkey will be fine.


TK is going the way of Venezuela if they don't get rid of Erdogan.

The US import duties on Turkish steel and aluminum are a total non-issue economically. What isn't a non-issue is the way Erdogan is ruining the Turkish economy by interfering with the central bank. The international investors have had enough. They are jumping off in droves. The lira will lose even more value, many companies in Turkey will go bankrupt. Turkey is facing a huge local economic crisis and very bad chances of recovery as long as Erdogan is at the helm. That man undertands nothing of economics and he has gotten rid of all people whose good advice lead him to create an economic boom all those years ago early 2000s. He is alone and clueless. Very bad combination. A good reminder that someone with a real degree is probably a better choice to lead a government than a religious zealot without proper education.

Long story short, when Turkey inevitably crashes, so will Turkish Airlines. That new airport Erdogan is building will never run near capacity. As TK's home market evaporates, they will rely solely on connecting traffic which will not suffice to sustain the airline.

One day the Turkish people will have enough of inflation, unemployment and all the other gift of Erdogan's and they will hunt him through the streets. They will go for a democratically elected, secular candidate and recover economically. Then TK will rise again.

This is how the next 10 years in Turkish aviation will play out. Thank me later for my prescience.

Waterbomber wrote:

So the best thing would be for Erdogan to suck his pride and talk to POTUS about a diplomatic solution. .


This is not about Donald Trump. This is a purely domestic crisis caused by Erdogan turning Turkey into a despotate. The tariff thing is a side show of miniscule significance.


Erdogan can be credited for getting Turkey where it is now, including TK and IST.
I'm not sure that replacing him would would work out better. This rhetoric has been used in Iraq, Lybia, Egypt, Venezuela, Ukraine and look at the result. Whomever came to replace the "monsters" at the head of those countries didn't do a better job and if you look at Lybia, their aviation industry has been destroyed.
For all the criticism about Chavez, look at what is going on now in Venezuela...

Turkey has done great under Erdogan, I doubt that any democratic leadership would have done better.
 
leftyboarder
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:47 pm

Trying to refrain from going too much into politics, I think it is unfair to compare Turkey to Iraq, Libya etc, and so is comparing TK to those countries' airlines. Turkey is still considerably more democratic than those countries were, and TK is a giant, relatively well run airline compared to Iraqi Airways or Libyan Arab et al. Things could definitely be much better and a more friendly political and economic environment would surely help TK but doomsday scenarios are somewhat a result of media hysteria.
 
aviationaware
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:12 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I'm not sure that replacing him would would work out better. This rhetoric has been used in Iraq, Lybia, Egypt, Venezuela, Ukraine and look at the result.


Unlike all of those countries, Turkey used to be a secular democracy before Erdogan came along and turned it into an islamist despotate. Restoring democracy has historically worked far better in those cases than the futile regime change attempts in countries that require a tough hand such as Iraq and Libya.
Turkey also has a relatively moderate population for a muslim country. "Only" around 12% of Turks support "honor killings" and other abominations of sharia law. That may seem scarily high, but is WAY lower than in most other muslim majority countries. For reference, in Iraq that number is at 91%; in Afghanistan a whopping 99%, Egypt 74% etc. In almost all muslim majority countries, and certainly all populous ones, support for sharia law is much bigger than 50%, which is why democracy mostly does not work in those countries. Turkey is different in that respect, but Erdogan is working hard to change that and turn the country into as much of a hellhole as the other muslim majority countries. Welcome to the third world!

Source: Pew Research
 
jetmechanicdave
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:59 am

My bad, the topic is reopened.
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alaturka
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:00 am

aviationaware wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
I'm not sure that replacing him would would work out better. This rhetoric has been used in Iraq, Lybia, Egypt, Venezuela, Ukraine and look at the result.


Unlike all of those countries, Turkey used to be a secular democracy before Erdogan came along and turned it into an islamist despotate. Restoring democracy has historically worked far better in those cases than the futile regime change attempts in countries that require a tough hand such as Iraq and Libya.
Turkey also has a relatively moderate population for a muslim country. "Only" around 12% of Turks support "honor killings" and other abominations of sharia law. That may seem scarily high, but is WAY lower than in most other muslim majority countries. For reference, in Iraq that number is at 91%; in Afghanistan a whopping 99%, Egypt 74% etc. In almost all muslim majority countries, and certainly all populous ones, support for sharia law is much bigger than 50%, which is why democracy mostly does not work in those countries. Turkey is different in that respect, but Erdogan is working hard to change that and turn the country into as much of a hellhole as the other muslim majority countries. Welcome to the third world!

Source: Pew Research


As a Turkish national here, this is the same phareses telling by oppotion groups in Turkey for almost 16 years and still nothing happen. Even people can agree more Erdogan was more conservative ans Islamic before but not today. Maybe it will be fair to call him as nationalist more than anything else.
 
gokmengs
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NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:08 pm

The worsening relationship between US & Turkey is not getting any better and after Turkish court's refusal to free the pastor Brunson rumors of new sanctions are hitting the wires. New York Times is reporting that new sanctions could limit TK.
IMO this is shooting yourself in the foot for US, TK could always order from Airbus, and Boeing would lose billions.
Link to the article:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-trump-syria.html

Thoughts?
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enilria
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:39 pm

The US3 fashioned the "government owned" argument to harass QR/EK/EY even though half the world's air capacity is operated by airlines with government ownership, but I'm sure they were irked this constructed argument could not be used against TK which represents a nearly identical competitive threat to their immunized alliances. They must be salivating over this new angle to hinder TK.
 
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enilria
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:45 pm

On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:56 pm

Can 338 be saved when TK cancel their 787 order?
 
ual763
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:06 pm

Maybe Erdogan should release our pastor who is being detained for nothing.
Last edited by ual763 on Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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OKCDCA
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:11 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
enilria wrote:
On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.

I think this has more behind it than just the holding of an American citizen but that seems to be the chosen narrative by the media and/or administration. I think there is a real concern in the US about the direction Turkey is heading and how they are cracking down on freedom of speech and quickly becoming a muslim based dictatorship. They have also recently purchased a Russian missle defense system which will require a heavy presence of Russian military support in a NATO country which has more than just the US upset.
 
freakyrat
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:12 pm

enilria wrote:
On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.


Because you got a bunch of Evangelicals in charge.
 
Bald1983
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:36 pm

enilria wrote:
On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.


I would suggest yo learn about foreign relations. North Korea was and is under massive sanctions ever since North Korea was caught violating the nuclear deal Clinton had worked out with the country. Those sanctions are still there. You make it sound like we are playing nice to North Korea and just arbitrarily coming down on Turkey. We are not playing nice to North Korea until they start tearing down their nuclear infrastructure. Turkey has gone from a relatively democratic nation, by Middle East standards, to an Islamic state. Turkey has become hostile to the United States. The United States is reacting. Do not forget Turkish personal attacking demonstrators in the United States who were protesting at the Turkish Embassy. AS I said, educate yourself on foreign policy.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:06 pm

freakyrat wrote:
enilria wrote:
On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.


Because you got a bunch of Evangelicals in charge.


That's more or less what I was thinking. Americans expect religious officials - more or less - to have safe passage. By contrast, college kids that want to save the world will be responsible for their own actions.
 
leftyboarder
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:27 pm

Well I doubt there are some foreign nationals held in the US awaiting trial, so what makes this US pastor so special that he should be released without trial, given he was charged? In any case, if US goes against the open skies agreement signed and limits TK operations in the US, this will probably result in TK canceling its $10bn+ order from Boeing. And for just the release of one man? And what if he was a US national Muslim cleric instead of an Evangelical pastor? This all sounds ridiculous. And if the US is worried in the direction Turkey is heading, bringing sanctions and further alienating 80mn people is not the way to go. The Russian system was purchased because the US declined to sell Patriot missile systems at the terms the Russians agreed to. Oh, and government ownership at TK is below 50%, so it's not a government controlled airline, at least on paper.

To further add, yes I am a Turkish national who isn't happy with the current government, but no it is not an Islamic state like some phony media in the west portrays to be. It is a lot less Islamic than the beloved UAE, and surely not anywhere near US ally KSA. So maybe US should start there if they are against Islamic states.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:45 pm

gokmengs wrote:
The worsening relationship between US & Turkey is not getting any better and after Turkish court's refusal to free the pastor Brunson rumors of new sanctions are hitting the wires. New York Times is reporting that new sanctions could limit TK.
IMO this is shooting yourself in the foot for US, TK could always order from Airbus, and Boeing would lose billions.
Link to the article:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-trump-syria.html

Thoughts?


Would the USA free a clergyman on the say so of an foreign government, when that clergyman is accused of being a part of a plot to overthrow a government?

I call those sanctions irrational.

I also have the opinion that the economic troubles of Turkey are home made by Erdogan´s government, rather than the result of sanctions or other foreign actions.
 
leftyboarder
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:48 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
gokmengs wrote:
The worsening relationship between US & Turkey is not getting any better and after Turkish court's refusal to free the pastor Brunson rumors of new sanctions are hitting the wires. New York Times is reporting that new sanctions could limit TK.
IMO this is shooting yourself in the foot for US, TK could always order from Airbus, and Boeing would lose billions.
Link to the article:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-trump-syria.html

Thoughts?


Would the USA free a clergyman on the say so of an foreign government, when that clergyman is accused of being a part of a plot to overthrow a government?

I call those sanctions irrational.

I also have the opinion that the economic troubles of Turkey are home made by Erdogan´s government, rather than the result of sanctions or other foreign actions.


You are absolutely right that the current currency crisis is Erdogan's own doing. But instead of fanning the fire and risking a global crisis that could also affect aviation, US should act rational. Instead we're seeing sanctions put on Turkey because a pastor isn't released by the word of another country's president. I worry that this level of meddling and protectionism will hinder aviation as well.
 
ScottB
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:17 pm

leftyboarder wrote:
And for just the release of one man? And what if he was a US national Muslim cleric instead of an Evangelical pastor? This all sounds ridiculous.


Funny that the Turkish government seems quite eager to trade a U.S. national evangelical for a Turkish national Muslim clergyman living in exile in the U.S. -- but the U.S. government has refused to extradite this Muslim to Turkey due to lack of credible evidence presented by the Turkish government. Yup, all about the U.S.A. hating Muslims, no doubt.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:24 pm

ScottB wrote:
leftyboarder wrote:
And for just the release of one man? And what if he was a US national Muslim cleric instead of an Evangelical pastor? This all sounds ridiculous.


Funny that the Turkish government seems quite eager to trade a U.S. national evangelical for a Turkish national Muslim clergyman living in exile in the U.S. -- but the U.S. government has refused to extradite this Muslim to Turkey due to lack of credible evidence presented by the Turkish government. Yup, all about the U.S.A. hating Muslims, no doubt.


Indeed. I’m no fan of the administration, but they are right to reject the false equivalency between the two men that seems to be all in Mr. Erdogan’s head.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
SnowBros
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:25 pm

From an aviation standpoint, US is a very important market for Turkish with 9 destinations and almost 50k seats per week. US market should also have a good number in terms of transfer passengers. That number should be more or less 1 billion usd of annual revenue for TK which is almost 10% of its revenue.

I would release the pastor, and give some free tickets to all other pastors in Turkey not to have this kind of loss. :)
 
eal
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:39 pm

I'm generally amazed at the eagerness for people on this forum to throw out morality in the sake of AVIATION, probably the skinniest sacred cow out there.
 
Skyguy
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:40 pm

The Pastor is just being used as a tool to justify action against Turkey, and it's pretty complicated and all political. Needless to say, Turkey's involvement in Syria and current relationship with Russia has a lot to do with this, and Turkey being a NATO member and getting comfortable with Russia doesn't sit well with the US. Turkey is a flashpoint right now economically and also militarily, I wouldn't be surprised to see military conflict escalate as Erdogan tries to distract the Turkish people and show strength. These guys are just playing giant Chess.
"Those who talk, do not know, and those who know, do not talk."
 
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enilria
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:03 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
enilria wrote:
On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.


I would suggest yo learn about foreign relations. North Korea was and is under massive sanctions ever since North Korea was caught violating the nuclear deal Clinton had worked out with the country. Those sanctions are still there. You make it sound like we are playing nice to North Korea and just arbitrarily coming down on Turkey. We are not playing nice to North Korea until they start tearing down their nuclear infrastructure. Turkey has gone from a relatively democratic nation, by Middle East standards, to an Islamic state. Turkey has become hostile to the United States. The United States is reacting. Do not forget Turkish personal attacking demonstrators in the United States who were protesting at the Turkish Embassy. AS I said, educate yourself on foreign policy.

I know quite a bit thanks. Has Turkey become hostile to the USA or has the USA become hostile to Turkey? It depends upon how you look at it. Erdogan has done some awful things and it would not be surprising if the U.S. was indeed involved in the coup. Also, Fethullah Gülen who lives in the U.S. has definitely been meddling in the political affairs of Turkey (without judging his motives). As evidenced by the U.S.-Russia kerfuffle, simple being a Russian is treated as de facto being an arm of the Russian government in the U.S. media. It is identical with the way the Turkish media treats Gulen as an arm of the U.S. government. The U.S. sold Turkey bombs to use against the Kurds, while also arming the Kurds to fight ISIS/ISIL. So, this is a lot more complicated than you make it out to be. And yes, the diplomatic situation with N. Korea is improving, while it is worsening with Turkey. As backdrop to all of this, Turkey is probably the most important choke point for oil and gas pipelines into Europe and has been leveraging that unsuccessfully to get into the E.U.
http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la- ... story.html

Bringing this all back to aviation,all that may be true, but TK is still a vibrant/growing/successful airline with a brand new hub about to open which constitutes a threat to the US3 JVs. So their lobbyists will be fanning the flames to extend sanctions to TK.
 
leftyboarder
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:14 pm

ScottB wrote:
leftyboarder wrote:
And for just the release of one man? And what if he was a US national Muslim cleric instead of an Evangelical pastor? This all sounds ridiculous.


Funny that the Turkish government seems quite eager to trade a U.S. national evangelical for a Turkish national Muslim clergyman living in exile in the U.S. -- but the U.S. government has refused to extradite this Muslim to Turkey due to lack of credible evidence presented by the Turkish government. Yup, all about the U.S.A. hating Muslims, no doubt.


Which means the US is expecting Turkey to do what it won't. But then what's good for the goose... I am an agnostic and couldn't care less for clergyman but once a country orders another country's courts to do something that isn't right. Regardless of motive. The US didn't release a Turkish bank executive on charges that he was accessory to trading with Iran, despite calls from Turkey. And how is this one different? Back to aviation again, it would be an immensely big mistake to further escalate things and impose sanctions on TK. Wouldn't benefit TK, Turkey, Americans who benefit from TK and aviation in general.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:39 pm

enilria wrote:
On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.


There was a prisoner swap that Turkey reneged upon. A Hamas prisoner was freed and sent to Turkey. In response, Turkey was suppose to free the pastor.After the Hamas prisoner was freed, Turkey reneged on their end of the bargain. I am glad we finally have a president who stands up to Erdogan and doesnt swoon to him like Obama and Bush did.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:44 pm

gokmengs wrote:
The worsening relationship between US & Turkey is not getting any better and after Turkish court's refusal to free the pastor Brunson rumors of new sanctions are hitting the wires. New York Times is reporting that new sanctions could limit TK.
IMO this is shooting yourself in the foot for US, TK could always order from Airbus, and Boeing would lose billions.
Link to the article:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-trump-syria.html

Thoughts?


My thoughts are Im glad types like you werent running things during the cold war. Youd want to sell Connies to Stalin and 747s to Brezhnev. Are you European, because this is France and Germany's attitude when selling to the most despicable nations in the world.

B/A is a duopoly. There is a limited amount of productive capacity. When A wins and order, that means the next customer likely has to buy B in order to get decent delivery positions and price.

Turkey is a repugnant nation (not just Erdogan ,afterall Turks keep electing his party to the parliament), it is high time the world begin to deal with Turkey more forcefully.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:46 pm

BTW the Coup was fake, it was instigated by Erdogan. It wasnt a real coup.
 
ScottB
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:56 pm

leftyboarder wrote:
Which means the US is expecting Turkey to do what it won't. But then what's good for the goose... I am an agnostic and couldn't care less for clergyman but once a country orders another country's courts to do something that isn't right. Regardless of motive.


Well, no, there's no equivalence here. Gulen hasn't been arrested or charged with a crime in the U.S. The U.S. has said it would be willing to consider extraditing him if presented with evidence that would be grounds for extradition -- but Turkey hasn't done that. Meanwhile Turkey is holding a U.S. citizen on what appear to be fabricated charges and by all accounts has been denied due process. So yeah, keep telling yourself what's good for the goose...

And, as others have pointed out, Brunson isn't the only issue here -- Turkey's decision, as a NATO member, to deploy Russian-sourced military equipment which could compromise NATO military positions is extremely troubling. Not to mention Erdogan's autocratic tendencies and post-coup-attempt purges of Turkish society.
 
Baluba
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:06 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
gokmengs wrote:
The worsening relationship between US & Turkey is not getting any better and after Turkish court's refusal to free the pastor Brunson rumors of new sanctions are hitting the wires. New York Times is reporting that new sanctions could limit TK.
IMO this is shooting yourself in the foot for US, TK could always order from Airbus, and Boeing would lose billions.
Link to the article:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-trump-syria.html

Thoughts?


My thoughts are Im glad types like you werent running things during the cold war. Youd want to sell Connies to Stalin and 747s to Brezhnev. Are you European, because this is France and Germany's attitude when selling to the most despicable nations in the world.

B/A is a duopoly. There is a limited amount of productive capacity. When A wins and order, that means the next customer likely has to buy B in order to get decent delivery positions and price.

Turkey is a repugnant nation (not just Erdogan ,afterall Turks keep electing his party to the parliament), it is high time the world begin to deal with Turkey more forcefully.


Is this supposed to be a joke? The best friend of the US is KSA and the US is both selling arms and providing support to their bloody campaign in Yemen.

The narrative that France and Germany (?) sell to despicable nations is born out of US discontent with them having some amount of independence in their foreign relations and not jumping everytime the US says jump.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:46 pm

Baluba wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
gokmengs wrote:
The worsening relationship between US & Turkey is not getting any better and after Turkish court's refusal to free the pastor Brunson rumors of new sanctions are hitting the wires. New York Times is reporting that new sanctions could limit TK.
IMO this is shooting yourself in the foot for US, TK could always order from Airbus, and Boeing would lose billions.
Link to the article:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-trump-syria.html

Thoughts?


My thoughts are Im glad types like you werent running things during the cold war. Youd want to sell Connies to Stalin and 747s to Brezhnev. Are you European, because this is France and Germany's attitude when selling to the most despicable nations in the world.

B/A is a duopoly. There is a limited amount of productive capacity. When A wins and order, that means the next customer likely has to buy B in order to get decent delivery positions and price.

Turkey is a repugnant nation (not just Erdogan ,afterall Turks keep electing his party to the parliament), it is high time the world begin to deal with Turkey more forcefully.


Is this supposed to be a joke? The best friend of the US is KSA and the US is both selling arms and providing support to their bloody campaign in Yemen.

The narrative that France and Germany (?) sell to despicable nations is born out of US discontent with them having some amount of independence in their foreign relations and not jumping everytime the US says jump.


Youre right KSA is bad, and only highlights US dependence on oil. No Germany and France actually sold WMD technology to Iraq and in the 1980s, busted sanctions in the 1990s and cant wait to sell to Iran today.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:17 pm

Baluba wrote:
The narrative that France and Germany (?) sell to despicable nations

Narrative? Google up Nord Stream 2 to see how Merkel is tripping over herself to supply Putin with cash.
 
mham001
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:06 pm

There is also the incident in Washington DC in which Erdogan bodyguards, without provocation, brutally beat up protesters in a park during his visit. One or some of those bodyguards are still wanted in the US, and Turkey refuses to them hand over. This does not sit well. At all.
 
Jetty
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:09 pm

leftyboarder wrote:
this will probably result in TK canceling its $10bn+ order from Boeing.

Where are they supposed to get aircraft then? From Airbus headquartered in The Netherlands where Turkey doesn't even have an ambassador anymore because of another diplomatically conflict, and where according to Erdogan the people are fascists and it's regime Nazi remnants?
 
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Aesma
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:49 pm

US evangelicals and mormons like to proselytize in countries where it's frown upon or even illegal, then complain when things don't go as planned.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:51 pm

Aesma wrote:
US evangelicals and mormons like to proselytize in countries where it's frown upon or even illegal, then complain when things don't go as planned.

I’m nonetheless thankful that the United States is working hard to obtain his release - as any civilized country would.
 
ScottB
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Re: TK to become casualty of USA-Turkey rhetoric?

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:27 pm

Aesma wrote:
US evangelicals and mormons like to proselytize in countries where it's frown upon or even illegal, then complain when things don't go as planned.


Except that in Turkey, the state is officially secular according to the national constitution. And the evangelical in question is being held on ridiculous, ever-changing charges as a pretense.
 
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enilria
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Re: NYT: New USA Sanctions Could Include Limits on TK

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:45 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
enilria wrote:
On another note, Americans are held all the time by foreign governments and it doesn't inspire actions that are this dramatic. North Korea was holding several American citizens until the recent warming of relations. I wonder why the U.S. considers this situation to be so much more of a priority? I think when it comes to foreign policy, they create a story for the U.S. citizens to rally around that has a shred of truth, but that masks whatever are the real reasons for the broader developments being justified.


There was a prisoner swap that Turkey reneged upon. A Hamas prisoner was freed and sent to Turkey. In response, Turkey was suppose to free the pastor.After the Hamas prisoner was freed, Turkey reneged on their end of the bargain. I am glad we finally have a president who stands up to Erdogan and doesnt swoon to him like Obama and Bush did.

Didn't know that piece of info. Breaking a swap agreement seems like a bigger deal.

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