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readytotaxi
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Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:57 pm

With Turkey claiming that they have video and audio of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi inside the embassy where does this place the rest of the world in their dealings with the country? I imagine the US will find it is between a rock and a hard place, the British government appears to be back peddling some what on relationships. If true, it is hard to see how Saudi Arabia misjudged world opinion so much to think they could get away with this act .Mr Khashoggi's disappearance threatens the reputation of the new Saudi Crown Prince, Mohamed bin Salman, and his country's relationships across the world.
Interesting times ahead.
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casinterest
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:10 pm

You will find the answer in a really simple 3 letter word.


Oil.

Perhaps even in another simple phrase

"Defense spending on US military equipment"

Nothing is going to happen but a slap on the wrist.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:25 pm

The entire west will come together and unanimously agree on forcing out the Saudi regime, if necessary by force. Following a major military invasion, a democratically elected government will be installed, Saudi Arabia will become a champion of human rights, the desert will become a lush paradise and brexit will be cancelled.

Seriously though, at the very most a US diplomat will give a sternly worded message to a TV crew about how serious this entire thing is. Then the Saudi ambassador will invite himself to a lunch in the oval office, and everything will be forgotten.
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:29 pm

Image
 
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Tugger
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:38 pm

Honestly the question is if this can be disconnected from the top Saudi leadership. I.e. it was an operation that was not sanctioned. That is bad enough, if Saudi leadership can't control their internal forces. But this will have repercussions.

And for the record I do think this was as "official" and sanctioned as such a task can be. So the damage control will be the key. Who in Saudi Arabia will be sacrificed for this and suffer the consequences.

Tugg
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wingman
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 pm

Killing a journalist critical of the regime? I'm thinking secret award ceremony for the Chief Sultan with Trump wistfully dreaming of dismembering a number of reporters in the Rose Garden.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:23 pm

There is a bad history of infighting among the factions of the Saud family, likely the current King belied Mr. K was saying the wrong things so needed to be 'disciplined with extreme prejudice'.
The USA and Europe won't do a thing to seriously object to this alleged murder. Too much money, oil, investment by Saud family members and their control of the most sacred sited of Islam they don't want to fall into the wrong hands.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:32 pm

Here is a comprehensive list of what will happen:




...







....






...





...





...



Sad, but true
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:47 pm

Saudis should have been taken out long time ago. VSMUT has it right, but sadly won’t happen. They’ve been the second most dangerous actor in the ME for sometime, behind their enemies across the Gulf. Shame they can’t both lose.

GF
 
salttee
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:19 pm

Score another "victory" for American red state neanderthals; this will all blow over quickly.
Trump will undermine any actions considered by anyone else.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:07 am

Why is this a “red state victory”? Why would any red state resident care about the political survival of MBS? Even if they knew who he was.

GF
 
salttee
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:11 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Why is this a “red state victory”? Why would any red state resident care about the political survival of MBS? Even if they knew who he was.

GF
Is that what this is about to you, the political survival of MBS?
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:25 am

Arguably the guy was dumb enough to go into a Saudi consulate in the Middle East. A property which is Saudi soil basically. Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy. I’m not really even sure it would be illegal for them to kill him in this situation. He displeased the monarch. What was the question again? Will someone protect the Saudi citizen from the Saudi monarch? Are you serious or are you joking...
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:44 am

No, it’s about why we should care if he survives or not. I personally would care if JDAM were dropped on him or if a bucket of roses were dropped. If he ordered this murder or employed those we did, the former is in order.



Gf
 
salttee
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:36 am

How about something realistic like cancelling all the arms deals with Saudi Arabia and withdrawing support for their war with Yemen?
Or even better how about ending the policy of trying to get Saudi Arabia in a war with Iran?

And in your personal case how about acknowledging the fact that Iran has never been a threat to the United States while Saudi Arabia has spawned AQ and ISIS as well as about a hundred other Islamic militant groups all of which have a goal of destroying the west, US included?
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:58 am

If they used a cleaner, then no body will ever be uncovered...

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Pellegrine
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:23 am

US would never enact sanctions on Saudi crude.

I say, a stern talking to, curtailed involvement in KSA's 2030 megacity developments, and the review of arms sales (with hopeful cancellation) to KSA.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
salttee
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:00 am

Sanctions on oil aren't necessary.
This is a great time to put some limits on their very destabilizing war machine that we are currently in the process of building.
Nothing good will come from these efforts to lead Saudi Arabia into a war with Iran.

The United States has no business fomenting war in the middle east.
 
olle
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:53 am

Country that supports and exports terrorism.
Country that invades other countries.
Country that kills journalists.

What do you do with the regime of such country?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:01 am

olle wrote:
Country that supports and exports terrorism.
Country that invades other countries.
Country that kills journalists.

What do you do with the regime of such country?


Heck, they can finance the murder of 3k Americans and the administration fought tooth and nail that the Saudi Goverment couldn't be sued for it by other US citizens.
Turkey better doesn't think of retaliation in any way or face a US-Saudi coalition.

Best regards
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zkojq
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:04 am

salttee wrote:
How about something realistic like cancelling all the arms deals with Saudi Arabia and withdrawing support for their war with Yemen?
Or even better how about ending the policy of trying to get Saudi Arabia in a war with Iran?

Cancelling bilateral airservice agreements between US and Saudi + EU and Saudi would be a great start. Same with overflight rights. If the EU and US stopped issuing visas to Saudi citizens, that'd be great also.

salttee wrote:
And in your personal case how about acknowledging the fact that Iran has never been a threat to the United States while Saudi Arabia has spawned AQ and ISIS as well as about a hundred other Islamic militant groups all of which have a goal of destroying the west, US included?

:checkmark: If only.
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Dutchy
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:14 am

Interesting that this probable murder leads to some consequences for this regime. Didn't see that coming. Saudi Arabia has always been an extreme regime.
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aviationaware
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:00 pm

Frankly this murder alone (as appalling as it is) should not result in hundreds of billions of defense contracts being cancelled. I am (and always have been) in favor of total isolation of the gulf theocracies (including Qatar, UAE and others) the same way Iran is being isolated; but using a single murder as grounds to go in that directions after we're letting them get away with murder any other day of the year - rather hypocritical in my view.

But I would at least hope that President Trump pressures King Salman into deposing of MbS.
 
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par13del
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:06 pm

Well since the Europeans are going their own way with Iran they will be leading the charge against the Saudis, so I think we can all rest easy on this one by not looking to the USA for leadership, the Europeans have this one. Why do we always look to the USA and are critical when they look after their own interest, and don't say anything about leader of the free world, that has been kicked to the cub starting in Gulf War I then the interim, II etc etc etc.

This may be another Arab spring all over again...however, since most of the ME oil goes to Europe, Japan and China, I suspect not much will happen.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:16 pm

Trump has said today that US will inflict "severe punishment" on Saudi Arabia if the kingdom is found to be responsible for the death. What is he going to do, visit them???
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DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:28 pm

While the Western world has turn a blind eye in the past, it doesn't mean they will continued to do so in the future,
Times are a changing and it doesn't take much for new dynasty leadership to become a tyrant and lose favor.

Oil, is the driver, for now however.
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:34 pm

Nothing will happen so long as the west remains addicted to the black crack. 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals, and Saudi Arabia faced zero consequences. A single murdered journalist isn’t going to suddenly force the west (at least not the US) to change its tune.
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Pellegrine
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:55 pm

Nothing will happen except for harsh words though back channels.

KSA is the biggest oil exporter in the world. Who could replace them? No one.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
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Tugger
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:28 am

Pellegrine wrote:
Nothing will happen except for harsh words though back channels.

KSA is the biggest oil exporter in the world. Who could replace them? No one.

Actually....
United States

The United States is the top oil-producing country in the world, with an average of 14.86 million b/d, which accounts for 15.3% of the world's production. This is down from 15.12 million b/d in 2015, but it was enough to land the United States in the No. 1 spot, which it has held for the past four years running. The United States overtook Russia in 2012 for the No. 2 spot, and it surpassed former leader Saudi Arabia in 2013 to become the world's top oil producer.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/ ... producers/

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https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-top- ... -the-world

Tugg
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anrec80
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:40 am

olle wrote:
Country that supports and exports terrorism.
Country that invades other countries.
Country that kills journalists.

What do you do with the regime of such country?


It's a funny question. The problem here is that exactly the country that's being caught doing these things the most - somehow believes that it can judge, then bomb and meddle with internal affairs of other countries. What do we do with such regime? Wait until it goes bankrupt?
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:45 am

readytotaxi wrote:
Trump has said today that US will inflict "severe punishment" on Saudi Arabia if the kingdom is found to be responsible for the death. What is he going to do, visit them???


Well - Saudis have certainly overplayed it, if they indeed killed someone right inside their consulate. Speaking of "severe punishment" - let's see. First, military lobby for USD 110B will show Trump what a "severe punishment" is. On the other hand, Russians have already had more than 60 "severe punishments" since 2014 and are doing fine.
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:21 am

Tugger wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
Nothing will happen except for harsh words though back channels.

KSA is the biggest oil exporter in the world. Who could replace them? No one.

Actually....
United States

The United States is the top oil-producing country in the world, with an average of 14.86 million b/d, which accounts for 15.3% of the world's production. This is down from 15.12 million b/d in 2015, but it was enough to land the United States in the No. 1 spot, which it has held for the past four years running. The United States overtook Russia in 2012 for the No. 2 spot, and it surpassed former leader Saudi Arabia in 2013 to become the world's top oil producer.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/ ... producers/

Image
https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-top- ... -the-world

Tugg

I'm bored with this. Crude oil is a global market, not a local one.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
anrec80
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:23 am

par13del wrote:
Well since the Europeans are going their own way with Iran they will be leading the charge against the Saudis,

At least 2 oxymorons here - "Europeans leading the charge" and "Europeans going their own way".
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

par13del wrote:
Well since the Europeans are going their own way with Iran they will be leading the charge against the Saudis, so I think we can all rest easy on this one by not looking to the USA for leadership, the Europeans have this one. Why do we always look to the USA and are critical when they look after their own interest, and don't say anything about leader of the free world, that has been kicked to the cub starting in Gulf War I then the interim, II etc etc etc.

This may be another Arab spring all over again...however, since most of the ME oil goes to Europe, Japan and China, I suspect not much will happen.


The answer is simple. Does the EU have its own sovereignty to take charge of their action? Nope. Does the EU have their own military capable for anything meaningful? Not known for that. Economically - do you even have an economy the EU can call its own? Not even that frankly. EU's major businesses are looking for credit and funding in the USD systems on the USA capital markets. Europe's major banks are making money in the same USA markets, doing anything except what they should be doing - providing capital, liquidity, hedging for European businesses.

During these sanctions, Russians could rebuild their economy to be resilient to these shocks. And yet until this year Europeans firmly believed that these sanctions matter will not affect them. Well - it did. And - EU has nothing to counter it with, at all. To their surprise EU learned that the USA can send their economy into doldrums just with a few signatures of not so high ranking officials, or even by some statements by press secretaries (which Washington DC is just stuffed with). USA tried and failed that with Russia though. Does that answer your concerns?
Last edited by anrec80 on Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:26 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
While the Western world has turn a blind eye in the past, it doesn't mean they will continued to do so in the future,
Times are a changing and it doesn't take much for new dynasty leadership to become a tyrant and lose favor.

Oil, is the driver, for now however.


The only two things that can cause loss of favor is unsteady supplies of oil and not placing large military and agricultural orders.
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:56 am

Tugger wrote:
The United States is the top oil-producing country in the world, with an average of 14.86 million b/d, which accounts for 15.3% of the world's production.



Still they are not a net exporter, are they?
All burned at home to allow a life in luxury ( or not actually, but burned it is.)
LNG they want to sell to Europe currently is Russian LNG afaik.

US political interest is in globally controlling access to energy sources.
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casinterest
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:59 pm

So apparently it was an interrogation gone wrong.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/breaking-cn ... gone-wrong


Umm how does a Journalist get Interrogated?

How does an interrogation go so wrong that someone dies?

I am not sure how this new admission absolves the Saudi Government of anyhting.
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N14AZ
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:44 pm

casinterest wrote:
So apparently it was an interrogation gone wrong.

Oh what a pity. The interrogators flew to Istanbul with private jets but even this didn’t help and the interrogation went wrong... got it.
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:45 pm

Flighty wrote:
Arguably the guy was dumb enough to go into a Saudi consulate in the Middle East. A property which is Saudi soil basically.

Not exactly. It's still soil that belongs to the host country, ceded for diplomatic purposes. It doesn't necessarily mean that Saudi laws apply there; the diplomats are granted immunity but must still observe the laws of the host country. Besides, the last thing you expect is to be killed when seeking documents for personal reasons on a diplomatic mission abroad.

Flighty wrote:
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy. I’m not really even sure it would be illegal for them to kill him in this situation.
Oh I see. It wasn't illegal. Kinda nice to see how an absolute monarchy is afforded...let's call it royal privilege...over the treatment of its citizens, but Iran's theocracy is brutal and unforgivable.


Flighty wrote:
He displeased the monarch.
That may be a thing for Saudis to be concerned about...in Saudi Arabia. When in Turkey or Russia or the US, they shouldn't be concerned. I think I know of a certain office holder who would likely salivate if he were afforded the freedom to kill anyone that displeased him.

Flighty wrote:
Will someone protect the Saudi citizen from the Saudi monarch? Are you serious or are you joking...

Nice to see you believe we should cherrypick which citizens we should protect from their rulers, especially abroad. I'm guessing we shouldn't protect Cubans from the communist regime, Venezuelans from the Maduro regime, Iranians from the clerics, or North Koreans from the Kim regime.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
anrec80
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:20 am

casinterest wrote:
So apparently it was an interrogation gone wrong.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/breaking-cn ... gone-wrong


Umm how does a Journalist get Interrogated?

How does an interrogation go so wrong that someone dies?

I am not sure how this new admission absolves the Saudi Government of anyhting.


Yeah, I do not understand this as well. Why in the world would someone do "wet" stuff like this, and "risky interrogations" right in their consulate? This journalist traveled across the whole EU and USA. In EU, Saudis beyond any doubts know sleeping Islamist cells - they generously fund Islam expansion in Europe. In the USA, they have cover at highest levels in Washington, DC. Could they not have found someone to "interrogate" him somewhere else, outside of their consulate? This in itself even for Saudis too horrendous to be true. Let's wait and see.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:44 am

Nothing to see here folks. Aparently it was just some rogue killers who happened to break into the Embassy at the particular time that the journalist was stopping by.

On Monday, President Donald Trump suggested "rogue killers" could be behind Mr Khashoggi's disappearance.

The president provided no evidence to back his comment, and did not explain how unauthorised visitors could have got past security at the consulate.

However, he said that during a phone call the Saudi king had firmly denied knowing what had happened to Mr Khashoggi.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45871364

However, unconfirmed reports in the US media suggest Saudi Arabia is preparing to admit that Mr Khashoggi died as a result of an interrogation that went wrong and that the original intention had been to abduct him.

So apparently trying to abduct him makes all of this ok?
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kaitak
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:00 am

I simply do not buy the idea that these were lone - or rogue - agents; how did they know that JK was coming into the consulate anyway? Because someone in the consulate informed the Saudi foreign ministry, which then informed the Saudi security forces. Denying official sanction is just a way of trying to insulate the top bods from this.

And to suggest that it was an interrogation that went wrong ... who exactly goes into an interrogation with a bone saw?

Again, the Saudis demonstrate that this whole civilisation thing is a bit a puzzler for them.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:18 am

Flighty wrote:
I’m not really even sure it would be illegal for them to kill him in this situation..


Outside of self-defense killing a person is always illegal, regardless of the law of the land.

best regards
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klm672
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:30 am

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ltbewr
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:17 am

That this alleged murder took place in a diplomatically protected place which makes it impossible for Turkey to take real action. The alleged murder agents quickly entered and left the country, on a government owned and operated jet, under diplomatic passports, likely bringing all the evidence and possibly JK's body in parts with them under diplomatic cover to be destroyed in Saudi Arabia. There is little doubt by many that JK was intentionally murdered, not some 'interrogation accident' to silence his criticism of the current Saud family leadership.
Turkey has few options. They can recall their Ambassador to SA and shut down their Embassy and Consulates there, stop issuing visa to SA nationals, especially Diplomatic visas. The USA and other countries could do the same but won't due to too much money involved. Best is to shame them, no appearances at their economic meeting, be very strict, as Pres. Trump wanted to do as to certain other Islamic dominate countries, as to issuing visas. We can also limit the numbers and movements of SA diplomats in the USA, EC countries and other countries. Such actions would be very popular in the USA as 15 of the 19 terrorists of 9/11 were SA nationals and the general dislike of SA.
 
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:42 am

ltbewr wrote:
.
Turkey has few options. They can recall their Ambassador to SA and shut down their Embassy and Consulates there, stop issuing visa to SA nationals, especially Diplomatic visas.


They can arrest a couple of Saudi Nationals and have them rott in jail until the murderers are handed over. That is what they do with everybody else.

Best regards
Thomas
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StarAC17
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:36 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Saudis should have been taken out long time ago. VSMUT has it right, but sadly won’t happen. They’ve been the second most dangerous actor in the ME for sometime, behind their enemies across the Gulf. Shame they can’t both lose.

GF


Don't attempt to overthrow the Saudi royal family in any way.

What should be done is that Saudi Arabia should be treated like Cuba, there should be a complete embargo on them.

Outside of the climate change this a reason to get off oil because being beholden to Saudi oil legitimizes their monarchy and people look the other way when they pull crap like this. If Iran had done this we would be mobilizing on their border right now to make them pay for this.
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seb146
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:39 pm

Kushner is so cozy with the Saudis there will be no repercussions. Even before Jared, there were no repercussions. Look at what didn't happen to them after 9/11.
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:40 pm

salttee wrote:
Sanctions on oil aren't necessary.
This is a great time to put some limits on their very destabilizing war machine that we are currently in the process of building.
Nothing good will come from these efforts to lead Saudi Arabia into a war with Iran.

The United States has no business fomenting war in the middle east.


Too late. That ship sailed a long time ago, alas.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:54 pm

Looks like MBS is now the goat for this issue . Lindsey Graham is calling him and the Saudi's out on live TV.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna920626
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
jpetekyxmd80
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Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 3:16 am

Re: Repercussions for Saudi if the murder is confirmed?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:40 pm

“Here we go again with, you know, you’re guilty until proven innocent. I don’t like that. We just went through that with Justice Kavanaugh and he was innocent all the way as far as I’m concerned.”


yes, really
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