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prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:29 am

Aesma wrote:
I've heard a couple French economists worried that Brexit might work for the UK. In their scenario the UK would indeed become a tax heaven, entirely turned towards financial services, providing shelter for companies, etc. How would that benefit anyone outside the City is your guess.

Huh, it must be slow news time in France these days. New large scale tax heavens in the developed world is a non-starter. In 15-20 years time the problem of tax loopholes will be mostly solved, due to technology and not least due to improved regulation by authorities such as the EU.

Tax fraud will still exist and grow at minor sites (islands), but that will be nothing which a major developed country like the UK can use in a profitable way.

Maybe those French economists are fishing in wavy waters? Better move your financial services home to France, and do it fast, to avoid having the tax authorities hanging around your neck 24x7 from 29 March 11pm.

The competition to take over businesses and services from post-Brexit UK has started long time ago.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:50 am

Olddog wrote:
It is expected. Each camp trying to take an vantage when the situation change :)


:checkmark:
Countries have no friends, they have shared interests. Usually it is in the interest of both parties to have a good deal for a win-win.

But if one country needs a trade deal, that may very well be a win-WIN scenario.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:36 am

Aesma wrote:
They're not fit for office because they're divided on Brexit ? Then what does that make of the people actually in office, extremely unfit ?


Brexit is currently the single biggest issue of the day and there's no coherent message coming from the Opposition about their stance on the issue other than different messages depending who you talk to and their 6 tests which they claim need to be passed before they vote in favour of the final deal. For me, that's extremely concerning because very soon they may end up in power and they're itching for that to happen given that one of their mixed messages is to favour a new General Election over another referendum. I want to know what they would do differently exactly: would it be to remain and rescind Article 50 within the limited time remaining, EFTA/EEA, Norway-style deal, Canada-style deal, hard Brexit, second referendum, something else? Nobody knows.

That's not to say the current government is doing any better on the subject at this time, but it's a poor state of affairs when the Opposition are not credible enough to take over power if there was a GE this week.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:22 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
Aesma wrote:
They're not fit for office because they're divided on Brexit ? Then what does that make of the people actually in office, extremely unfit ?


Brexit is currently the single biggest issue of the day and there's no coherent message coming from the Opposition about their stance on the issue other than different messages depending who you talk to and their 6 tests which they claim need to be passed before they vote in favour of the final deal. For me, that's extremely concerning because very soon they may end up in power and they're itching for that to happen given that one of their mixed messages is to favour a new General Election over another referendum. I want to know what they would do differently exactly: would it be to remain and rescind Article 50 within the limited time remaining, EFTA/EEA, Norway-style deal, Canada-style deal, hard Brexit, second referendum, something else? Nobody knows.

That's not to say the current government is doing any better on the subject at this time, but it's a poor state of affairs when the Opposition are not credible enough to take over power if there was a GE this week.


The problem is that Brexit is not an issue that falls along party lines. The best approach would have been to elect a cross-party parliament to manage the whole process, but neither party can see far enough past their own interests to even consider something like that.
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:57 pm

So apparently a "deal" has been agreed between UK & EU negotiation teams... now the hard sell to the UK cabinet... the next 24-48 hours could be very interesting.... then of course the bigger sell to parliament..... even more interesting (assuming it gets that far...?)
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:09 pm

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cedes.html


The Euros with their, you’ll need a visa scaremongering can now find something else to be scared of.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:14 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6385035/Britons-WONT-need-visas-travel-EU-Brexit-Brussels-concedes.html


The Euros with their, you’ll need a visa scaremongering can now find something else to be scared of.


"As long as the UK reciprocates" is the key there. Which means it isn't even news.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:59 pm

JJJ wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6385035/Britons-WONT-need-visas-travel-EU-Brexit-Brussels-concedes.html


The Euros with their, you’ll need a visa scaremongering can now find something else to be scared of.


"As long as the UK reciprocates" is the key there. Which means it isn't even news.


Which of course, we will.

I’m deeply scared by Merkels calls for a true european army. So glad we aren’t going to be part of this and we will continue to align with america and the rest of the commonwealth.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:01 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
It is expected. Each camp trying to take an vantage when the situation change :)


:checkmark:
Countries have no friends, they have shared interests. Usually it is in the interest of both parties to have a good deal for a win-win.

But if one country needs a trade deal, that may very well be a win-WIN scenario.

best regards
Thomas


But of course, you wouldn’t want to see this between the UK and the EU.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:24 pm

Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6385035/Britons-WONT-need-visas-travel-EU-Brexit-Brussels-concedes.html


The Euros with their, you’ll need a visa scaremongering can now find something else to be scared of.


"As long as the UK reciprocates" is the key there. Which means it isn't even news.


Which of course, we will.

I’m deeply scared by Merkels calls for a true european army. So glad we aren’t going to be part of this and we will continue to align with america and the rest of the commonwealth.


well it means when Polexit happens, it wont be the Germany Army that marches into Poland this time, but a Euro one to “sort things out”.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:25 pm

Arion640 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
It is expected. Each camp trying to take an vantage when the situation change :)


:checkmark:
Countries have no friends, they have shared interests. Usually it is in the interest of both parties to have a good deal for a win-win.

But if one country needs a trade deal, that may very well be a win-WIN scenario.

best regards
Thomas


But of course, you wouldn’t want to see this between the UK and the EU.


Nope, we don't want to see that, that is why the EU is such a lovingly accommodating towards the UK instead of playing hardball like everybody else.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:15 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I’m deeply scared by Merkels calls for a true european army. So glad we aren’t going to be part of this and we will continue to align with america and the rest of the commonwealth.


If we stayed (or do stay) in the EU the UK would have a veto over such issues, so again it would be to our UK parliament to agree to such a move (we ARE sovereign)

Personally, on the 100th anniversary of world war 1 , I do not see Europe’s armies aligning with each other as a bad thing at all, as long of course as they can continue to individually represent their member states interests, which of course they would.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:28 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I’m deeply scared by Merkels calls for a true european army. So glad we aren’t going to be part of this and we will continue to align with america and the rest of the commonwealth.


If we stayed (or do stay) in the EU the UK would have a veto over such issues, so again it would be to our UK parliament to agree to such a move (we ARE sovereign)

Personally, on the 100th anniversary of world war 1 , I do not see Europe’s armies aligning with each other as a bad thing at all, as long of course as they can continue to individually represent their member states interests, which of course they would.


Have you seen Merkels speech?
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:41 pm

Arion640 wrote:

Have you seen Merkels speech?


Yes. Sounds logical, working together alongside NATO, aligning systems and standards....
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:00 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Have you seen Merkels speech?


Yes. Sounds logical, working together alongside NATO, aligning systems and standards....


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.c ... b8afea6ea3

“We should work on the vision of one day creating a real European army,”

Looks a bit more than aligning a few systems and standards to me!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:30 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Have you seen Merkels speech?


Yes. Sounds logical, working together alongside NATO, aligning systems and standards....


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.c ... b8afea6ea3

“We should work on the vision of one day creating a real European army,”

Looks a bit more than aligning a few systems and standards to me!


Like I say, in EU we have a veto, nothing to be concerned about. What is your concern?
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:34 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

Yes. Sounds logical, working together alongside NATO, aligning systems and standards....


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.c ... b8afea6ea3

“We should work on the vision of one day creating a real European army,”

Looks a bit more than aligning a few systems and standards to me!


Like I say, in EU we have a veto, nothing to be concerned about. What is your concern?


What is there to be concerned about?

In or out of the EU, the UK would have no interest in Merkels army.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:49 pm

Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6385035/Britons-WONT-need-visas-travel-EU-Brexit-Brussels-concedes.html


The Euros with their, you’ll need a visa scaremongering can now find something else to be scared of.


"As long as the UK reciprocates" is the key there. Which means it isn't even news.


Which of course, we will.


Who knows. The record keeps changing.

I’m deeply scared by Merkels calls for a true european army. So glad we aren’t going to be part of this and we will continue to align with america and the rest of the commonwealth.


I.e. be a good lapdog of the Trump du jour. Good boy.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:52 pm

Apparently, there is a Brexit deal. No details are known yet.

https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5570981/britse ... -rond.html
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:07 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Apparently, there is a Brexit deal. No details are known yet.

https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5570981/britse ... -rond.html


And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:12 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Apparently, there is a Brexit deal. No details are known yet.

https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5570981/britse ... -rond.html


And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.

Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the european requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:26 pm

Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Apparently, there is a Brexit deal. No details are known yet.

https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5570981/britse ... -rond.html


And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.

Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the European requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.


I agree, if it meets the EU requirements, I am fine with it. Sad to see you go, but there you have it. So two reactions and both accept it, do you accept it?

Image
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:48 pm

Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Apparently, there is a Brexit deal. No details are known yet.

https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5570981/britse ... -rond.html


And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.

Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the european requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.


Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:50 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.

Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the european requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.


Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.


Thank God you don't hold a grudge. :roll:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:57 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.

Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the european requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.


Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.

In neither country there is any appetite for that. The current leaders may chafe at common policies or even at basic ethical principles, but the populations are staunchly opposed to any kind of exit from the EU.

What the UK is doing to itself right now without need isn't the cause for that (they're just not insane enough), but it's certainly an additional deterrent.

Your problem is that you haven't got the slightest clue of what the European Union actually is, but the insane pack of lies rammed down your throat all your life will now have you leaving the actual European Union, not the absurd caricature you're imagining, and the actual consequences are also very different from your imaginations.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:11 pm

Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the european requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.


Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.

In neither country there is any appetite for that. The current leaders may chafe at common policies or even at basic ethical principles, but the populations are staunchly opposed to any kind of exit from the EU.

What the UK is doing to itself right now without need isn't the cause for that (they're just not insane enough), but it's certainly an additional deterrent.

Your problem is that you haven't got the slightest clue of what the European Union actually is, but the insane pack of lies rammed down your throat all your life will now have you leaving the actual European Union, not the absurd caricature you're imagining, and the actual consequences are also very different from your imaginations.


Don’t you tell me that I have not got a clue.

What makes you an expert Mr Knowitall?

Pathetic
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:26 pm

I heard on a business radio that the deal is on the table only if May convinces Barnier that it has a chance in the Commons.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:07 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.

In neither country there is any appetite for that. The current leaders may chafe at common policies or even at basic ethical principles, but the populations are staunchly opposed to any kind of exit from the EU.

What the UK is doing to itself right now without need isn't the cause for that (they're just not insane enough), but it's certainly an additional deterrent.

Your problem is that you haven't got the slightest clue of what the European Union actually is, but the insane pack of lies rammed down your throat all your life will now have you leaving the actual European Union, not the absurd caricature you're imagining, and the actual consequences are also very different from your imaginations.


Don’t you tell me that I have not got a clue.

You've already removed any doubt about that with every single of your claims about the EU, in most cases provably so.

What makes you an expert Mr Knowitall?

Simple: Actually bothering to seek out factual information instead of just passively nodding to self-interested propagandists pushing my emotional buttons and parading flimsy scapegoats before me.

And I don't know it all, just enough to say what I do.

Pathetic

My statements to the topic hold up pretty well in hindsight.

Have you re-checked yours?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:06 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.

Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the european requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.


Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.


Italy just flipped the finger to the EU. In 5 years the EU is history. Everywhere people want freedom and control of the affairs of their nation.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:18 am

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Have you seen Merkels speech?


Yes. Sounds logical, working together alongside NATO, aligning systems and standards....


which is logical considering that the EU treaties are a much stronger mutual defense commitment that the NATO treaty. NATO is a "can" organisation when it comes to defending its members, the EU is a "must" organisation.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:20 am

Thank for he good laugh this morning seahawk :)
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:35 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.


Nice to know the Brexiteers have such a good grasp of reality...

I'm joking of course. You are so far wide of the mark it would be laughable if it wasn't so sad.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:41 am

Aesma wrote:
I heard on a business radio that the deal is on the table only if May convinces Barnier that it has a chance in the Commons.


Well if Barnier offers a crap deal, it has a crap chance.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:32 am

Meanwhile, in a briefing to the ambassadors of the 27 EU memberstates, Sabine Weyand -Michel Barnier's deputy- referred to the Custom Union as the basis of the future relationship and she's right of course: this CU is to be part of the Brexit treaty and forms the backstop, the absolute bare extremum beyond which there will never be divergence between the UK and the EU for the sake of Northern Ireland, meaning that anything that will replace it, must by definition be of a higher level of integration.

In short: forget all the fetish talk by Brexiteers about whether or not the UK can theoretically step out of the CU unilaterally, later!
The CU is not going to be a separate treaty signed after Brexit, its to be embedded in the exit treaty, so they are just wasting everybody's time with those discussions really, either because once again they demonstrate not to know how the EU treaties are constructed and relate to each other, or because they hope their voters don't and they can keep on fooling them to save their own career.

Note also how a full CU came into being: the UK itself (!) reluctantly asked the EU to extend the proposed customs regime for NI to the whole of the UK to avoid a custom border down the Irish Sea, yet the proposal also forsees NI remaining "dynamically aligned" with the EU's Single Market....

By the same British logic that opted not to go for an internal custom border, a intra-British regulatory border will not be acceptable as that is ever more complicated than setting up a few checkpoints in a handful of ports, which will mean this dynamic SM alignment is most certainly to be extended to the whole of the UK too then, later, during the negotiations which will start in April next year....

"Dynamic alignment" is a fanciful name to describe a legal mechanism in which the UK can not change its own rules to make them diverge from the current EU rules, yet will automatically follow any changes in EU rules..

In short: Britain is signing up to Norway plus (i.e. as good as full SM alignment and a full CU membership on top); it's just doing so in phases after realizing at each of the steps that none of the fanciful alternatives to each of the individual issues is workable: it could have made things easy for all and just asked to rescind its voting rights, because when all is said and done, nothing else will have changed materially, other than the colour of the UK passport, indicating second class European citizens by choice. :spit:

Another piece of info not mentioned in the British press today too obsessed with the CU end state: continued fishing rights for EU vessels will be included in the political declaration too... it's one of those small technical guarantees that lead to major policy shifts later on, just like the guarantee not to have a hard border in NI last year now does.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:02 am

sabenapilot wrote:
In short: Britain is signing up to Norway plus (i.e. as good as full SM alignment and a full CU membership on top); it's just doing so in phases after realizing at each of the steps that none of the fanciful alternatives to each of the individual issues is workable: it could have made things easy for all and just asked to rescind its voting rights, because when all is said and done, nothing else will have changed materially, other than the colour of the UK passport, indicating second class European citizens by choice. :spit:


Pretty accurate.

At least with "dynamic alignment" it should be relatively straight forward to rejoin the EU in the future (as our rule book would have been kept in check) once the evidence of how stupid this whole process has been finally kicks in to the masses.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:27 am

You'll have lost all the opt outs however...
In hindsight, the referendum has just been about signing away British citizen rights, opt outs and EU voting rights as well as making an advance payment off at least €45BN to the European Union for all commitments made in the past.
Taking back control and funding the NHS instead, wasn't it? :duck:
:rotfl:
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:44 am

Seems that the EU may have gotten something it wanted regarding NI (or else why would the DUP not like it?).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/14/dup-warns-may-over-brexit-deal-as-cabinet-prepares-for-showdown
 
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sebolino
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:50 am

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Apparently, there is a Brexit deal. No details are known yet.

https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5570981/britse ... -rond.html


And however good or bad the deal is, it will be shouted down by all the europhiles in this thread.


????
Strange. I'm fully Europhile, please tell me why I should shout the treaty down ...
Now that UK has decided to leave, why would I whish any bad for it ? But I don't have the details of the treaty, so maybe I missed something.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:07 am

It seems the DUP, all of the 'ERP' numpties, Boris etc have all said they will vote against it. This is going to be a very interesting, and difficult next 24hrs.

I found it quite amusing (actually completely expected) who came out last night, with out even having read the texts calling it all sorts of stupid names and saying they wouldn't vote for it.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:17 am

Arion640 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I heard on a business radio that the deal is on the table only if May convinces Barnier that it has a chance in the Commons.


Well if Barnier offers a crap deal, it has a crap chance.


He can't offer a have cake and eat it kind of deal.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 am

seahawk wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Actually, it's your own comrades in the Tory party who are out for blood over it.

If it's a deal which satisfies the european requirements, I'm okay with it, and I've never said otherwise.

It's your lot who are completely in hysterics about this.


Whatever the deal, hopefully it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.

Italy and Poland to hopefully jump ship next.


Italy just flipped the finger to the EU. In 5 years the EU is history. Everywhere people want freedom and control of the affairs of their nation.


Italy is doing internal politics by being mean to the EU. I don't know what will happen but if they really implement their plan as it is, they will need the full support of the ECB. The ECB already owns 450 billion euros of Italian debt, do you hear Italian politicians talking about this ? Most of the rest is owned by Italians themselves, so if an Italexit and default on the debt is attempted, it would just mean Italians end up poorer. Mostly old folks who can't work.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:29 am

Arion640 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I heard on a business radio that the deal is on the table only if May convinces Barnier that it has a chance in the Commons.


Well if Barnier offers a crap deal, it has a crap chance.


May could have gone to a "no-deal" straight away. She didn't have to agree to a deal. Therefore, the deal offered by Barnier wasn't crappy enough for May not agreeing to it (or at least presenting it to the public as "the deal"). Then again, you can argue that May doesn't care anymore and agreed to a deal only to be relieved from Brexit.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:13 am

LJ wrote:
May could have gone to a "no-deal" straight away. She didn't have to agree to a deal. Therefore, the deal offered by Barnier wasn't crappy enough for May not agreeing to it (or at least presenting it to the public as "the deal"). Then again, you can argue that May doesn't care anymore and agreed to a deal only to be relieved from Brexit.


This kind of makes sense, as for TM this has been about getting a deal, seemingly whatever the circumstances.

It will be interesting to see how many of her "red lines" have been crossed once we see what the deal is and also to see whether any of the referendum pledges have come true as a result of this deal.

I sense that red lines will at the minimum have been blurred - and we all know the pledges of £350m EU savings to the NHS and "no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside" will not be fulfilled.

This "deal" if passed then only sets the course for any future trade deal negotiation, but it does in a way put in minimum standards, i.e. a customs union and rule alignment will appear in any final EU trade deal.

Will also be interesting to see if the deal includes any deal for Financial Services and the City or for Services industry, which thus far has been left out of chequers, even though this is the biggest source (80%) of our economy.

The people deserve a final say on this.....
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:33 am

Front cover of this afternoons Evening Standard.

George Osborne is having some fun with this.... Remain MP's are not happy with this either, with some today publicly saying they will vote against it..

Image
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:39 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
You'll have lost all the opt outs however...
In hindsight, the referendum has just been about signing away British citizen rights, opt outs and EU voting rights as well as making an advance payment off at least €45BN to the European Union for all commitments made in the past.
Taking back control and funding the NHS instead, wasn't it? :duck:
:rotfl:


Hey, at least we can hope that inflation turns out to be greater than any interest calculated into that €45b... Could be a (tiny little) win at last! :-D
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:10 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Front cover of this afternoons Evening Standard.


Other than the personal aspect to all of this, the most sobering thing is that this is most probably the best possible deal ANY Prime Minister can expect to come back with from Brussels. The best possible deal promised clearly still is a very lousy deal, so now what?
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:45 pm

Another interesting detail just leaked out:
the transitional period during which everything would remain the same while a final settlement was worked out and which is now secured by this agreement was always said to automatically end on the last day of 2020, yet it will now be possible to extend it by periods of a year if deemed necessary by a panel of independent judges from both the UK and the EU, as well as a third -unnamed- country (EFTA member Norway is cited here, but not confirmed).
So not only is the UK-wide CU as backstop pretty much irrevocable, but even the full status quo can now easily be maintained beyond the ultimate cut off date of 2021, which is of course highly likely since trade negotiations can only start in May next year (after Brexit) and are likely only going to start for real after summer next year, when a new EU Commission is sworn in, and can last between 5 and 10 years to be signed off and ratified by all EU member states if other trade deals are to be taken as a reference.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Front cover of this afternoons Evening Standard.


Other than the personal aspect to all of this, the most sobering thing is that this is most probably the best possible deal ANY Prime Minister can expect to come back with from Brussels. The best possible deal promised clearly still is a very lousy deal, so now what?


It's the best deal based on Theresa Mays "Red Lines", however those red lines were of course self imposed, so for many the best deal would have been EEA/EFTA + Customs Union , eg Norway+, but alas chequers is what we have.

TM did not need to rule out Customs Union & Single Market so early in the process (it is not the will of the people) and was boxed in from that point on.

Should the new deal be shot down in Cabinet, Parliament, or through a Tory leadership challenge, then I would think that the choice would then be No Deal (as ERG proposals would not be acceptable to EU and break GFA) vs Remain, possibly with a further referendum.

Its all so messy...
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:04 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
can last between 5 and 10 years to be signed off and ratified by all EU member states if other trade deals are to be taken as a reference.


Which would mean that the 19% drop in direct foreign investment to the UK already experienced post referendum will continue to decrease for the best part of another decade.

Businesses need reasons to invest in a country, and with an evolving uncertain legal framework coupled with no guaranteed access to the single market (let alone no trade deals, WTO GPA or WTO schedules) the UK is going to have a very tough decade on the back of this.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:28 pm

And when you think the WA was supposed to be the easy bit....

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