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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:37 am

Richard28 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
An article I read elsewhere citing economists said that crashes are not linear in their development, but will suddenly and exponentially shift toward them.


If you were able to see a crash coming, then it would not be a crash.


The crash is coming for sure. The question is when, not if. If you could predict when, you could literally cash out. Probably in 2020, perhaps at the end of this year.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:50 am

Dutchy wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
An article I read elsewhere citing economists said that crashes are not linear in their development, but will suddenly and exponentially shift toward them.


If you were able to see a crash coming, then it would not be a crash.


The crash is coming for sure. The question is when, not if. If you could predict when, you could literally cash out. Probably in 2020, perhaps at the end of this year.


:checkmark: markets are cyclical, so yes when, not if.

Trying to time the markets is the holy grail... some profess to do it, most however rely on luck in my experience, with more investment managers getting it wrong than right.

back to brexit..... ;)
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:43 pm

marcelh wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The reaction within the EU is quite consistent when it comes to new negotiations, those are widely rejected. So I wonder what the British will plan to do now.

According to Boris Johnson @ BBC he was saying that this result was a great opportunity to go to the EU and start the negotiations. A sort of “they need us more than we need them.”


Who listens to him nowadays? The only thing he wants is to oust May and become PM. The problem is that he's the only person who thinks he can become PM. None of the other Tories want him and thus stick to May. In that respect it's very hypocritical that whilst you don't support your party leader (and wanted to oust her previously), they now will vote against a motion of no confidence. My personal believe is that any MP who voted against May in the leadership challenge should have the guts to vote in favor of the motion of no confidence.
 
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keesje
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:55 pm

EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:20 pm

keesje wrote:
EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.


What's even more bemusing is that the majority of the problems Brexiteers claim are the fault of the EU are primarily the fault of this and the last conservative government. We have had a decade of extremely poor governance and now you see crumbling social security, an ever increasing NHS in crisis, massive infrastructure problems and cost overruns and vast swathes of the country that the government has no local councils, completely ignored and sidelined. I completely understand how some people, who are not either interested in politics, easily led by press, or actually just not mentally capable of understanding it came to think the EU are at fault and migrants and all that, but it's all a gigantic con.

Which is why when you really push a lot of brexiteers and I include MPs in this, the best they can do is quote Patrick Minford's completely debunked economic studies or use these stupid, meaningless phrases like 'take back control of our money, our borders and our laws'. Honestly, it's so farcical it's unbelievable. And still nobody can agree what Brexit actually is or what people really voted for. The only continuous unchanged, solid position is remain - it was one option which has never changed and could be interpreted in one way.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, MPs should not be allowed to have external interests or second jobs (i.e a lot have board of directors roles). It makes a mockery of Parliament being trust worth, when it's clear so many operate with other interests in mind.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:44 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Tugger wrote:
If it is going to be a truly effective tool it needs to be rewritten completely, defining a series of disengagement steps and a process to achieve what has been now demonstrated to be an exceedingly difficult task to manage. I doubt the authors even had any idea how vastly difficult it would be (if only because they figured it would be so difficult that no one would be stupid enough to do it).


Frankly, I think the article was written with the expectation that anyone using it would already have a mandate, a timetable AND A PLAN ready to go. The idea is that you prepare everything beforehand then enact it with article 50.

Well if there is an "expectation" don't you think a competent and effective law would have that codified into it? Again, this is the first time it was ever invoked, people/nations did not understand what that truly involved.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:26 pm

A referendum should be the obvious choice by now. Parliament can't decide on any course of action, can't remove TM, can't call for new elections, so what else is there ?

Or TM call it quits.
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Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:28 pm

I think the EU politicians perfectly knew what was involved and that is why they made a long time to acknowledge that the UK was really going amok.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:42 pm

Tugger wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Frankly, I think [article 50] was written with the expectation that anyone using it would already have a mandate, a timetable AND A PLAN ready to go. The idea is that you prepare everything beforehand then enact it with article 50.

Well if there is an "expectation" don't you think a competent and effective law would have that codified into it? Again, this is the first time it was ever invoked, people/nations did not understand what that truly involved.


Well in the same kind of way that you don't have to prove you have the correct travel documents, visa, accomodation, health insurance etc. before you purchase an airline ticket. You can leave it all to the moment before you fly if you want to, but it's your responsibility and it makes sense to plan first.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:46 pm

Aesma wrote:
A referendum should be the obvious choice by now. Parliament can't decide on any course of action, can't remove TM, can't call for new elections, so what else is there ?

Or TM call it quits.


That has been my preference for some time, but I have tried looking at this with fresh eyes, and continue to reach the same conclusion.

indeed, I can even see TM pushing this herself at some point rather than being pushed into it.

In her "consultation" TM appears to be ruling out a customs union membership and insisting on removing our freedom of movement rights. So she is unlikely to get any support from SNP, Labour, Lib Dems and many in her own party.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... alks-begin

A No deal will be blocked by Parliament, as has already started happening - they have the numbers

I doubt she will revoke Article 50 willingly

So where does that leave her?

PeoplesVote (along with A50 extension) is as far as I can tell is her only way out... i.e. let someone else make the decision for her and her party.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:20 pm

Simply do nothing and wait till March 29th, which then means the Hard Brexit, regardless of what the parliament thinks about it. With the denied and the obligation to free the UK from the EU, only that hard Brexit is a way out.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:34 pm

keesje wrote:
EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.


Yes when you look at it as a block in total EU exports, but if you look at the UK in isolation the UK imports more from the EU than the UK exports to the EU, but the UK exports to third countries is larger than the EU.

Yes statistic are good but statistic can be manipulated to achieve a certain look as you have done
 
Flighty
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:35 pm

keesje wrote:
EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.


Oh? Is the UK getting younger over time? Are educational scores / attainment improving over time?

Demographic questions; should be easy to answer. I don't know the UK, but in similar countries, the population is aging and educational scores are going down. Therefore, "old and uneducated" is a group that will grow over time.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:06 pm

post script to above

its also the NI issue in regards to trade I saw a graph awhile ago and was broken up to the nearest billion at the time
NI trade to the RIO was 4b
NI trade to remaining EU 3b
NI trade to rest of world 3b
NI trade to rest of UK 15b

put the backstop at the Irish sea and the common market trade is equivalent to 7b that means trade with UK has to go over a border and all third countries rules apply whilst also being territory of the UK. If the hard border didn't take place between NI and rest of UK guess where that trade going first to NI then the common market.
which trade should NI protect first a 7b industry or a 15b?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:15 pm

Who cares about trade, Northern Ireland is part of the UK and as the border can not be in the Irish sea, but must be between the UK and the EU.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:10 pm

seahawk wrote:
Who cares about trade, Northern Ireland is part of the UK and as the border can not be in the Irish sea, but must be between the UK and the EU.



Agree, but the withdrawal agreement was to keep the Good Friday agreement peace NI was going to remain in the common market, but of a dilemma that one the backstop
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:40 pm

Looks like the EU is willing to extended the March 29 deadline for several months if not a year.
 
Derico
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:45 pm

At some point don't you all think "Brexit" will morph into an actual word in the English language?

bre·xit
/ˈˈbɹɛksɪt/
verb
1.
carry out (a task) clumsily or incompetently; to perform (duty, task) in a manner not meeting the most minimum standards
"he brexited his first attempt to manage a group of professional players"
synonyms: mishandle, mismanage, bungle, mess up, make a mess of, botch, spoil, mar, ruin

noun
1.
a task carried out in a clumsy or incompetent way; a performance not meeting the most minimum standards
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:48 pm

ltbewr wrote:
It appears the world has gone totally mad and is in the early stages of a harsh financial crash, worse than 2008 that the mess of Brexit is part factor of.

We are seeing racism, the mass migrations of people in the Americas and Europe due to politics, economic and personal survival, the collapse of once good paying industrial jobs wiped out by computers and shifts to cheap labor countries, too low oil prices, China's economy hitting a wall, the partial shutdown of the USA's government, trade battles and other factors forming a 'perfect storm' of a mass, worldwide economic crash.

An article I read elsewhere citing economists said that crashes are not linear in their development, but will suddenly and exponentially shift toward them. Maybe nothing can be done about this entry to a economic crash, indeed some rich persons will see them as an opportunity to buy low, hold, then sell when high again, but the toll on Billions of human lives will be terrible.


1) Mass unrest, leads to
2) Politicians as deer in the heads lights, leads to
3) Fumbling politics, leads to
4) Worsening economic conditions, increasing feelings of insecurity, leads to
5) People calling for a strong man to lead the country and fix the problems, leads to
6) Said strong man finding fault of the current climate by a minority or abroad, lead to
7) Economic pressure by said strong man or even belligerence towards other countries, lead to
8) Increasingly more heated rhetoric, leading to
9) Someone going overboard and pressing the red button.

WW-3.
 
masi1157
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:06 pm

Flighty wrote:
Demographic questions; should be easy to answer. I don't know the UK, but in similar countries, the population is aging and educational scores are going down. Therefore, "old and uneducated" is a group that will grow over time.

It is not only a demographic question if you consider that the "old" of today were born and raised in pre-EU times and at least some of them (the less educated?) might believe that everything was (and would be) so much better outside the EU, while the "young" of today (who will be the "old" of tomorrow) were born and raised "in Europe".


Gruß, masi1157
517 different segments on 101 airlines to 212 airports in 55 countries
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:08 pm

Derico wrote:
At some point don't you all think "Brexit" will morph into an actual word in the English language?

bre·xit
/ˈˈbɹɛksɪt/
verb
1.
carry out (a task) clumsily or incompetently; to perform (duty, task) in a manner not meeting the most minimum standards
"he brexited his first attempt to manage a group of professional players"
synonyms: mishandle, mismanage, bungle, mess up, make a mess of, botch, spoil, mar, ruin

noun
1.
a task carried out in a clumsy or incompetent way; a performance not meeting the most minimum standards


lol!!

I like this one (not mine!):

Brexit:
"The undefined being negotiated by the unprepared in order to get the unspecified for the uninformed."
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:35 pm

Poor aunt May, the House of Commons just won't put her out of her misery.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:56 pm

Indeed, euthanasia got denied, entirely as expected.

TM's 'plan' now is to work with other parties to see what they would find an acceptable form of Brexit in order to change the WA in such a way that it can gain a majority in parliament…I know the UK isn't used to having minority governments, but wouldn't this have been the only sensible thing to do from the start maybe?

LibDems, SNP and Labour have all said tonight they only want to talk about it when a 'no deal' is finally taken off the table, and they do not want to be put under time pressure either, meaning an extension of the Brexit deadline is now likely to be going to come on the table, followed by a much softer Brexit.
Norway+ is on the way, although TM is still pretending her red lines will not be crossed… of course they will: otherwise, nobody will help her out!

And who knows, plebicited via an election or a second referendum in the end to give any deal much needed street credibility?

The only sensible thing to do is 'to compromise on the current compromise' to get more people onboard, as anybody from a European country where they routinely have coalition/minority governments could have told you right from the start. ;)
 
bananaboy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:16 pm

Teresa May to make a statement at 10pm.

Thoughts? Resignation?

Mark
All my life, I've been kissing, your top lip 'cause your bottom one's missing
 
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casinterest
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:27 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Derico wrote:
At some point don't you all think "Brexit" will morph into an actual word in the English language?

bre·xit
/ˈˈbɹɛksɪt/
verb
1.
carry out (a task) clumsily or incompetently; to perform (duty, task) in a manner not meeting the most minimum standards
"he brexited his first attempt to manage a group of professional players"
synonyms: mishandle, mismanage, bungle, mess up, make a mess of, botch, spoil, mar, ruin

noun
1.
a task carried out in a clumsy or incompetent way; a performance not meeting the most minimum standards


lol!!

I like this one (not mine!):

Brexit:
"The undefined being negotiated by the unprepared in order to get the unspecified for the uninformed."


You all are overthinking this.

Brexit:
"Over Promise :Under Deliver"
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:42 pm

Derico wrote:
At some point don't you all think "Brexit" will morph into an actual word in the English language?

bre·xit
/ˈˈbɹɛksɪt/
verb
1.
carry out (a task) clumsily or incompetently; to perform (duty, task) in a manner not meeting the most minimum standards
"he brexited his first attempt to manage a group of professional players"
synonyms: mishandle, mismanage, bungle, mess up, make a mess of, botch, spoil, mar, ruin

noun
1.
a task carried out in a clumsy or incompetent way; a performance not meeting the most minimum standards


It could well do. As in “Argentina made a complete Brexit of claiming The Falkland Islands in 1982.” :wink2:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:47 pm

keesje wrote:
EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.


Source please
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:54 pm

bananaboy wrote:
Teresa May to make a statement at 10pm.

Thoughts? Resignation?

Mark


we'll see. I have absolutely no clue what she has to say at this juncture. Perhaps a call to all MP's to come together.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:31 pm

[Cross-party talks]

Labour - We would like some unicorns
SNP - We also would like unicorns + Indy Ref 2
Lib Dems - *banging table* PEOPLE'S VOTE PEOPLE'S VOTE PEOPLE'S VOTE
DUP - NO COMPROMISE ON ANYTHING EVER
Greens - Would anyone like a hemp tote bag?


May wants to meet Corbyn Bet he's got an allotment meeting or something he can't get out of.
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
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keesje
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:36 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
keesje wrote:
EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.


Source please


"52%":
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

"Export":
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

"Oldies":
https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

"Lower educated":
"According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split." https://www.theweek.co.uk/89378/fact-check-did-uk-s-better-educated-vote-remain

So, what's your responds noviorbis77 ?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:40 pm

keesje wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
keesje wrote:
EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.


Source please


"52%":
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

"Export":
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

"Oldies":
https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

"Lower educated":
"According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split." https://www.theweek.co.uk/89378/fact-check-did-uk-s-better-educated-vote-remain

So, what's your responds noviorbis77 ?



I have A-Levels + University degree, and I voted leave!
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:45 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
scbriml wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Article 50 should be the *END* of the process, not the start!


I don’t disagree, but that would require the EU to agree things that they appeared unwilling to do before A50 was invoked.


I agree that's how it was presented, but maybe that's because they were asked to "negotiate" with people who had no clue what they wanted rather than consult on various well thought out proposals.

Don't forget that the language at the time was that there could be no "negotiations" before article 50.


Any competent politician with a decent knowledge about how the EU works should be able to create a proposal that is acceptable to the EU before invoking article 50. But when you have people like Boris Johnson in charge, it will not be as smooth.
 
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keesje
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:05 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
keesje wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

Source please


"52%":
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

"Export":
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

"Oldies":
https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

"Lower educated":
"According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split." https://www.theweek.co.uk/89378/fact-check-did-uk-s-better-educated-vote-remain

So, what's your responds noviorbis77 ?



I have A-Levels + University degree, and I voted leave!


Image

:wink2:

Did you believe the Brexiteers like Farage & Boris on their word? Is your pride & shame fighting for control?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:36 pm

I was listening to Dutch radio this morning. There was an interview with a Dutch MP whom was dealing with Brexit. He has been talking to his British counterparts. He was quite shocked by the Brexiteers, they seem truly believing in the political unicorn, no sense of reality. Even when this MP tells them how it works. He was most shocked to discover that these MP Brxiteers don't seem to have the best interest of the nation at heart, but are much more self-absorbed. It is all a disgrace, we give politicians a mandate to make our lives better. These politicians prefer their political games above doing their primary duty for their country and that is shameful.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:36 pm

keesje wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
keesje wrote:

"52%":
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

"Export":
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

"Oldies":
https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

"Lower educated":
"According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split." https://www.theweek.co.uk/89378/fact-check-did-uk-s-better-educated-vote-remain

So, what's your responds noviorbis77 ?



I have A-Levels + University degree, and I voted leave!


Image

:wink2:

Did you believe the Brexiteers like Farage & Boris on their word? Is your pride & shame fighting for control?


Nope, I didn't believe in Brexteers like BoJo or Farage.

I voted leave, because I don't like the colossal waste of money spent on the two parliament building system, which amounts to Billions spent over the years, which could be used for better causes. But nationalistic pride over not losing a seat of Govt takes precedence.

I also voted leave because of the fraud that takes place within the Common Agricultural policy. 58% of the EU budget is spent on this colossal fraud. It needs reform.

Mine was a protest vote, as didn't actually believe "Leave" would win.
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:40 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
keesje wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

Source please


"52%":
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

"Export":
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

"Oldies":
https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

"Lower educated":
"According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split." https://www.theweek.co.uk/89378/fact-check-did-uk-s-better-educated-vote-remain

So, what's your responds noviorbis77 ?



I have A-Levels + University degree, and I voted leave!


I am sorry that your education hasn't stuck. You are in the 1/3 of your group that voted leave and you are relatively young - my age - and younger people voted more remain, so those two combined places you in a minority. What was that clinching argument for you? How is your life going to be better because of Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:46 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
Nope, I didn't believe in Brexteers like BoJo or Farage.

I voted leave, because I don't like the colossal waste of money spent on the two parliament building system, which amounts to Billions spent over the years, which could be used for better causes. But nationalistic pride over not losing a seat of Govt takes precedence.

I also voted leave because of the fraud that takes place within the Common Agricultural policy. 58% of the EU budget is spent on this colossal fraud. It needs reform.

Mine was a protest vote, as didn't actually believe "Leave" would win.


Whoops, so how do you feel about that decision now?

I actually agree on both those points, Strassbourgh can close tomorrow, only France is blocking that one, the EU civil service apparatus is very efficient, much more efficient then and other EU-governement. The Common Agricultural policy needs to be reformed and it is slowly reforming. But man, talking about a very high-risk protest vote....
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:56 pm

With hindsight it was the wrong way to vote, and If I had the choice again, I would vote "Remain"
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:13 am

Dano1977 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:


I have A-Levels + University degree, and I voted leave!


Image

:wink2:

Did you believe the Brexiteers like Farage & Boris on their word? Is your pride & shame fighting for control?


Nope, I didn't believe in Brexteers like BoJo or Farage.

I voted leave, because I don't like the colossal waste of money spent on the two parliament building system, which amounts to Billions spent over the years, which could be used for better causes. But nationalistic pride over not losing a seat of Govt takes precedence.

I also voted leave because of the fraud that takes place within the Common Agricultural policy. 58% of the EU budget is spent on this colossal fraud. It needs reform.

Mine was a protest vote, as didn't actually believe "Leave" would win.


It would have been better to just not vote in the 1st place, than vote for something you don’t really believe.
 
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keesje
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:23 am

I think a new vote, election would be the best. Now everybody is warned to double check what's told them.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:02 am

scbriml wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Frankly, I think the article was written with the expectation that anyone using it would already have a mandate, a timetable AND A PLAN ready to go. The idea is that you prepare everything beforehand then enact it with article 50.

Chicken or egg.

All the mandates and plans in the World are meaningless before A50 is invoked and the real negotiations begin.

Dear scbriml, the problem is that the UK and the EU uses the word "negotiation" for two entirely different things.

The EU will negotiate detailed implementation and time schedule of the exit plan. After invoking A50 of course. None of the A50 authors ever imagined that a country would invoke A50 without having a clue what they wanted.

The UK wanted to negotiate how to change the EU into something which might fit a basket of more or less unspecified and conflicting things. Any such thing is not, and will never be, on the table. The EU assumes that a EU member country knows the EU and what options are possible for 3rd part countries.

The procedure is like this:
1. The country to exit negotiates internally what 3rd part relation they want with the EU, if any. Within EU rules of course, if in doubt, ask.
2. Article 50 is invoked, and EU is informed about future 3rd part relation.
3. The country to exit and the EU negotiates details of implementation plan.

Those two "negotiations" are as much apples and oranges as apples and oranges can be. Internal vs external. But anyway it seems like most Britons mix them together as "the negotiations".

Mr. Barnier and his team isn't negotiating yet, and hasn't been negotiating. He has turned down impossible UK proposals (Chequers etc.), and he has assisted the UK with defining what options are possible (WA, Norway+ etc.), even if the UK should know that since she spent 40+ years making those rules. And then he is ready to begin to negotiate an implementation plan once/if the UK finds out what she wants (assuming she doesn't want to crash out, then no plan is needed).

The procedure for changing the EU is different: Be a member and convince the other members to change. It's done all the time. But all this "they need us more" thing, it is politely ignored by the EU, as we have seen since 29 March 2017. Not because the EU is many times larger, but because EU rules are made by the EU.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:45 am

Dano1977 wrote:
I voted leave, because I don't like the colossal waste of money spent on the two parliament building system, which amounts to Billions spent over the years, which could be used for better causes. But nationalistic pride over not losing a seat of Govt takes precedence.

I also voted leave because of the fraud that takes place within the Common Agricultural policy. 58% of the EU budget is spent on this colossal fraud. It needs reform.

Mine was a protest vote, as didn't actually believe "Leave" would win.

Yeah, that's a very typical uneducated way to look at it. Let me educate you:

The two buildings is a minor issue which for the time being can be solved only by excluding France from the EU. Personally I prefer two buildings in favour of FREXIT. :wink2:

The agriculture policy is as old as the EU and is based on the unconditional wish that the EU at all times shall be able to feed its own people. Being blackmailed while being dependent on food supply from unstable countries is a very uncomfortable way to lose control. At that time there were still memories from WW2 when several countries suffered severe famine due to broken trade routes. Britain not so much because she was kept fed by the USA.

With relatively high wages (compared to many overseas countries) and much rather difficult land (mountains etc.) it was and is a challenge to keep agro production at wanted level, because it often wouldn't be profitable. There are two ways to fix that:

1. A stiff customs wall around the EU so EU farmers can demand higher prices to cover costs.
2. Subsidize primary production to make EU farmers able to compete on world market.

Version 2 was chosen. We can argue that it was wrong, that version 1 was better. Economically it is all the same for consumers. Version 1 = more expensive food, version 2 = more tax to the EU. The main thing is that the system worked and still works. EU is, and has always been, able to feed its citizens.

About fraud: When rules are made, then some of us obey to the rules. Others don't always obey, they are criminals. Police is there, and they fix part of the problem, the part which is discovered. Yes, we can eliminate the fraud by eliminating the rules.

Same way we can eliminate parking rules so we can park our car wherever we want and as long as we want. Viola, no parking fines any longer.

And yes, the EU agro rules sometimes get out of tune with reality as world market fluctuates. They often need corrections. And unfortunately it is always "too late" to adjust them because it is harder to predict the future than the past. That's a disadvantage, but not a reason to dump the system.

Hope that you learned something.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:55 am

Derico wrote:
At some point don't you all think "Brexit" will morph into an actual word in the English language?
bre·xit
/ˈˈbɹɛksɪt/
…..
noun
1.
a task carried out in a clumsy or incompetent way; a performance not meeting the most minimum standards

Yesterday my (Danish) foreign minister Mr. Anders Samuelsen agreed completely when he slightly more specifically said that "Brexit is a traffic accident in slow motion".

As I understood him it was Brexit as seen from Denmark. (Yep, while Brexit is a British thing, then we don't care about Britain, we care about what effect Brexit has on Denmark). Maybe after yesterday's defeat of the WA it is time for us to order a new bumper and headlights.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
Klaus
Posts: 21599
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:46 am

Tugger wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Yeah were does this leave us? I can see a scenario that TM will revoke Article 50 on 28th of March.

And I want that ludicrous ECJ ruling challlenged at the very least as soon as she does, not least given its obvious abuse and inconsistency with the intent of Article 50.

When Article 50 is just being abused to jerk the other members around at a domestic whim, such an attempt cannot stand.

Look, this is the first time it has/had been invoked. No one really had it fully understood how it would work, how it would implement. So don't lay this all at the feet of Britain (though of course there bare a brunt of the blame, they invoked it)

The Brexit chaos in the UK has absolutely nothing to do with Article 50, which is very simple and straightforward.

That chaos is exclusively the result of the specific domestic political situation in the UK.

Quite frankly the article itself is not well written or effective for what it is: A wholesale change to a nations laws and relationship with the world in thousands of ways, changing a nation from "integrated" to "fully separate". If it is going to be a truly effective tool it needs to be rewritten completely, defining a series of disengagement steps and a process to achieve what has been now demonstrated to be an exceedingly difficult task to manage. I doubt the authors even had any idea how vastly difficult it would be (if only because they figured it would be so difficult that no one would be stupid enough to do it).

Have you ever actually read it?

Article 50 has zero interest in what's happening to the exiting country. It deals exclusively with how that exiting country is technically separated from the European Union (declaration, then within 2 years all EU treaties simply stop applying; That's it!).

It is totally obvious that Article 50 is like the trigger handle of an ejection seat: You should be really, really certain about all of the consequences before pulling it!

Seriously, if there were a law in Germany written like that that a normal citizen could invoke and become embroiled in a similar chaos (say a law to change their address), the state would be sued and the courts would find in the citizens favor and make the state pay for the failure for being so blind and writing such a bad law in the first place! :spin:

The essential difference is that regular civilian citizens of a state are assumed to be legal laypersons who need to be protected from criminals, predatory corporations and from improper official actions, while nation states are assumed to be controlled by fully capable, fully educated adults with extensive legal support at their disposal.

That the UK would act like a bunch of clueless, halfwitted teenagers full of hormones and with no idea whatsoever and no care about the consequences of their actions is supposed to not happen in international relations, and if it does, the electorate would have had the option to elect better leaders but chose not to, so they'll have to bear the consequences.

Honestly I don't know what the next step will be but if I were May I would be:
Image

“There’s no point in acting surprised about it. All the planning charts and demolition orders have been on display at your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for 50 of your Earth years, so you’ve had plenty of time to lodge any formal complaint and it’s far too late to start making a fuss about it now. … What do you mean you’ve never been to Alpha Centauri? Oh, for heaven’s sake, .....”

― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

The difference is that the dolphins supposedly knew exactly where they were going! ;)

Article 50 has been all out in the open for many years, and the UK can't complain that for some reasons they were completely surprised by consequences in their own country!

International relations ("global Britain"!) are not at all kiddie-proofed and are a lot harsher than membership in the European Union where the other countries will generally help you out when you need it (see Ireland now!), but that's pretty much what you get when you're blindly following a bunch of con men and women.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:54 am

scbriml wrote:
Klaus wrote:
And I want that ludicrous ECJ ruling challlenged at the very least as soon as she does, not least given its obvious abuse and inconsistency with the intent of Article 50.


Who do you expect to challenge it?

If there is a reasonable risk of that ruling being abused by the UK, pretty much any european citizen would have their interests endangered and could have standing to challenge it.

I said all along it was poorly written and legally ambiguous, despite your (and others) claims to the contrary.

It is very concise and very clear. That ruling, on the other hand is an amazing document of bizarre contortions to somehow by hook or by crook (and with even internal contradictions within it!) arrive at a politically desired result, which should never happen in a judicial ruling.

There is some political will in the EU27 to have one back door option open to the UK to rescue them from their own utter incompetence and their horrid, toxic mess, but at least I personally see lots of damaging fallout for everybody else in that case, as much as I personally would love to keep all halfway sane britons as members.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:59 am

The UK needs to end this crazy fear of the Hard Brexit, because this is the best solution. Negotiating with the EU is as pointless and the people voted for full control and not some vassal state status like Norway. Bring the Hard Brexit, it is the only real one.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:01 am

Richard28 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Maybe the Queen needs to give a speech, like her father the King did as WWII developed, to ask for the citizens of the UK to end this Brexit mess, to stay in some way with the EU for the good of 'God and Country', rather than continue to the road to perdition.


The Queen would never be publicly partisan on such an issue, as this would threaten the monarchy itself - that I would suggest is her prime motivation.

What she does do is have a weekly audience with the prime minister where she is briefed on matters in parliament. Here she can express a view to the prime minister, should she choose to do so. Rarely though are her views leaked and of course we never know whether the prime minister is influenced by such meetings.

And that is a massive problem right now. The UK being rudderless adrift with the political leadership fighting like rats in a sack with no regard for the interests of the country shows very clearly how necessary a politically legitimate head of state would be.

Compare that to the problematic, stuttering coalition negotiations in Germany a while ago: It took the democratically legitimized President to bang some heads together until they finally stopped their partisan bickering and formed a workable government even under difficult circumstances (with the AfD in the Bundestag making coalitions more difficult than ever because nobody would invite them.)

The Queen has no such authority, but some political, but still non-partisan authority would be sorely needed in the UK right now, and you don't have any.

The ill-considered merging of head of state and head of government in the USA causes similar problems there.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:02 am

A101 wrote:
keesje wrote:
EU exports 8-10% to UK. UK exports 50% to EU. Guess who needs who..

Strange thing is politicians from UK and EU are still friends as they were before. Both didn't want this in the first place.

"The people" (52%, oldies, lower educated) said this. In 3 years they'll say something else. Un- / miss-informed hitting their country right between the eyes.

Flat headed nationalism / populism made another victim. Like we've seen so often in history.


Yes when you look at it as a block in total EU exports, but if you look at the UK in isolation the UK imports more from the EU than the UK exports to the EU, but the UK exports to third countries is larger than the EU.

Yes statistic are good but statistic can be manipulated to achieve a certain look as you have done

Statistics can be misinterpreted, but that doesn't mean at all that facts were just arbitrary – quite the contrary, it is absolutely essential to know which statistic means what, exactly, and what it doesn't mean!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:05 am

seahawk wrote:
The UK needs to end this crazy fear of the Hard Brexit, because this is the best solution. Negotiating with the EU is as pointless and the people voted for full control and not some vassal state status like Norway. Bring the Hard Brexit, it is the only real one.

Just with no control, since the EU will simply trample all over the UK in its way if the UK doesn't adopt its rules and standards, exactly the same as the USA and China will.

The choice is not between membership or control, it is between membership and control or Brexit and no control!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:47 am

If you are not willing to do the hard Brexit, your negotiation position is completely weak any way, as you admit that you need the EU and access to the EU market. If that is actually the case, you are better off in the EU than outside.

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