Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1535
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:12 am

Richard28 wrote:
So still it would appear this is a conservative party political issue... like him or loathe him (for the record I am the latter), Corbyn needs to be involved for any resolution to this.


Corbyn's red line last night about not talking to May until no deal is off the table has the potential to backfire on him. I don't want no deal either (or Brexit for that matter), but stating preconditions when other parties have similar stances but are talking to May anyway doesn't come across as clever and is risking isolation on the issue.

Then again, I don't think Corbyn gives much of a toss about Brexit and he has limited options left open to him now his power grab attempt by calling a vote of no confidence failed. It will be interesting to see if he sticks to Labour's policy "passed democratically at conference" that they kept parroting on about where a second referendum is one option is adhered to or he tries to sit tight in the hope it will make another no confidence vote viable again. This was an interesting read: https://news.sky.com/story/what-is-corb ... e-11609257
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12722
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:41 am

Corbyn seems personal to be in favor of a Soft-Brexit, but his party is also split on the issue.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:59 am

Corbyn favours Corbyn to become prime minister. Everything else does not matter for him.
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 467
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
Corbyn favours Corbyn to become prime minister. Everything else does not matter for him.


As was mentioned above, I don't think he has much interest in Brexit. I think generally he would like to leave but he see's it all as a sideshow and doesn't really care either way. I wouldn't vote for him (wouldn't vote for Tory's either right now) but I genuinely believe he thinks the country should be concentrating on what he sees are more important issues, like the NHS, inequality, homelessness, lack of housing etc etc. It explains everything about the positions he has taken. I mean he's right, all these other issues are being ignored in debate because of Brexit, but the reasons for them happening are ideological on the Tory side.

On that basis, he sees the only way to resolve those problems is to become PM, to change the government.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21638
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:54 pm

seahawk wrote:
If you are not willing to do the hard Brexit, your negotiation position is completely weak any way, as you admit that you need the EU and access to the EU market. If that is actually the case, you are better off in the EU than outside.

Hard Brexit is no effective threat to the EU, it is just the default which the EU is preparing for anyway.

This is one of the main illusions of the Leavers, and by now it should already be flushed out.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1535
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:19 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Corbyn favours Corbyn to become prime minister. Everything else does not matter for him.


As was mentioned above, I don't think he has much interest in Brexit. I think generally he would like to leave but he see's it all as a sideshow and doesn't really care either way. I wouldn't vote for him (wouldn't vote for Tory's either right now) but I genuinely believe he thinks the country should be concentrating on what he sees are more important issues, like the NHS, inequality, homelessness, lack of housing etc etc. It explains everything about the positions he has taken. I mean he's right, all these other issues are being ignored in debate because of Brexit, but the reasons for them happening are ideological on the Tory side.

On that basis, he sees the only way to resolve those problems is to become PM, to change the government.


It's a valid point that a plethora of domestic issues are being neglected by Brexit. There is also a compelling case that Brexit will lead to/already causing further issues for the NHS which employs foreign medical professionals including those from EU nations.

The problem is though that Brexit needs to be sorted first before focus can fully switch back to domestic matters because this is perhaps the single most important issue facing the UK at this time, as well as what to do about Brexit potentially impacting the NHS etc. which will influence domestic policy for whoever is in power.

The sooner Corbyn realises this and adopts a credible, realistic position on the matter, the sooner he will start to be taken more seriously on Brexit. Who knows, it might even help Labour's dismal ratings in the opinion polls which makes his recent GE call even more baffling as current polling numbers do not point towards a Labour majority let alone Labour being the largest party. A smart politician who wants to gain power or tighten their grip on power wouldn't call for an election if they didn't think they could win. May thought an increased Tory majority would be a slam dunk going by the polls at the time she decided to call a GE in 2017, but then again we know what happened next.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12722
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:22 pm

If nothing else, we can at least have a laugh at this disaster:

Brexit escape room:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH0jvLbVrNw

Image

You got to love Monty Payton.
Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 1164
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:55 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
keesje wrote:

"52%":
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

"Export":
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

"Oldies":
https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

"Lower educated":
"According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split." https://www.theweek.co.uk/89378/fact-check-did-uk-s-better-educated-vote-remain

So, what's your responds noviorbis77 ?



I have A-Levels + University degree, and I voted leave!


I am sorry that your education hasn't stuck. You are in the 1/3 of your group that voted leave and you are relatively young - my age - and younger people voted more remain, so those two combined places you in a minority. What was that clinching argument for you? How is your life going to be better because of Brexit.


what a patronising post.

Crap like this is why I dislike so many Europeans.
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 2752
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:04 pm

another accurate cartoon, but form the today's Evening Standard:

Image
 
Klaus
Posts: 21638
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:18 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:


I have A-Levels + University degree, and I voted leave!


I am sorry that your education hasn't stuck. You are in the 1/3 of your group that voted leave and you are relatively young - my age - and younger people voted more remain, so those two combined places you in a minority. What was that clinching argument for you? How is your life going to be better because of Brexit.


what a patronising post.

Crap like this is why I dislike so many Europeans.

You're just perfectly proving his point. See the poster above:
Totally failed at life?
Then why not blame a foreigner
It's so much easier than taking responsibility for your own poor choices
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14861
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
An article I read elsewhere citing economists said that crashes are not linear in their development, but will suddenly and exponentially shift toward them.


If you were able to see a crash coming, then it would not be a crash.


The crash is coming for sure. The question is when, not if. If you could predict when, you could literally cash out. Probably in 2020, perhaps at the end of this year.


As far as I'm concerned, the crash has already happened. I cashed out more than a year ago and everything I had is 20% down or more. The only thing I couldn't sell (shares in the company I work at) has lost 30% in one year, more than the definition of a krach.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12722
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:04 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
what a patronising post.

Crap like this is why I dislike so many Europeans.



Given that your decision is questioned by yourself and given that your decision is costing me money, given your self proclaimed "motivation to give a statement", I think I have been very soft to you. It is the most stupid decision by a country in the past 50 odd years. Given your education, you should have realized it, not just in hindside. So yeah, own up to your decision you took in the voting boot 2,5 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fx9DdxiB3k
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 467
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:05 pm

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
what a patronising post.

Crap like this is why I dislike so many Europeans.



Lots of the crap that you've written in this thread makes me dislike lots of Brits. I think I've done a good job of keeping most of that feeling to myself though.

I'm European and British.

Dutchy is actually spot on. Your vote has lost me freedoms, limited my options and caused my family severe pain.
I have lost friends over this, generally those that aren't as well educated - they have no interest in politics, believe force fed rubbish by certain press and won't look at up data for themselves. There is a clear connection between how people voted and their age, location and education.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:27 pm

Decisions are not made by facts, but feelings. We only use facts to confirm our feelings.
 
A101
Posts: 2593
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:42 pm

Klaus wrote:
seahawk wrote:
If you are not willing to do the hard Brexit, your negotiation position is completely weak any way, as you admit that you need the EU and access to the EU market. If that is actually the case, you are better off in the EU than outside.

Hard Brexit is no effective threat to the EU, it is just the default which the EU is preparing for anyway.

This is one of the main illusions of the Leavers, and by now it should already be flushed out.


Everyone should have been preparing this from the beginning, as the old saying "prepare for the worst hope for the best"
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:43 pm

Klaus wrote:
seahawk wrote:
If you are not willing to do the hard Brexit, your negotiation position is completely weak any way, as you admit that you need the EU and access to the EU market. If that is actually the case, you are better off in the EU than outside.

Hard Brexit is no effective threat to the EU, it is just the default which the EU is preparing for anyway.

This is one of the main illusions of the Leavers, and by now it should already be flushed out.


It is not a threat it is the default outcome of Article 50. If you are not able to cope with it, you should not trigger Article 50.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21638
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
Decisions are not made by facts, but feelings. We only use facts to confirm our feelings.

You can make that mistake, but then you can only speak for yourself there.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12722
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:48 pm

seahawk wrote:
Klaus wrote:
seahawk wrote:
If you are not willing to do the hard Brexit, your negotiation position is completely weak any way, as you admit that you need the EU and access to the EU market. If that is actually the case, you are better off in the EU than outside.

Hard Brexit is no effective threat to the EU, it is just the default which the EU is preparing for anyway.

This is one of the main illusions of the Leavers, and by now it should already be flushed out.


It is not a threat it is the default outcome of Article 50. If you are not able to cope with it, you should not trigger Article 50.


You should have told Theresa May back in 2017, just before she triggered Article 50 with absolutely no plan what so ever and no unity within parliament on what they wanted to achieve. And here we are...........
 
marcelh
Posts: 1591
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:09 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:

Crap like this is why I dislike so many Europeans.

That’s why I don’t want those Brexiteers be a part of the EU when Brexit fails.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:54 pm

Klaus wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Decisions are not made by facts, but feelings. We only use facts to confirm our feelings.

You can make that mistake, but then you can only speak for yourself there.


Everybody does, and one needs to know this to make better decisions.

https://bigthink.com/experts-corner/dec ... ion-making

It is very logical if you look at the Brexit. The older generation connects the pre-EU times with their youth - they were young , life was exciting, they had options. The EU times are connected to memories of getting old, maybe sick, when decisions turned out wrong, maybe they were left behind.
You can even look at many pro-Brexit speeches and the language and words used, are intentionally used to influence emotions. Or just look at "taking back control", looking at facts it means nothing, but on an emotional level it promises to grant a wish every human knows, the wish to control your own life and be free of unpleasant events. And this wish i stronger the older you get. If you are young you feel very much in control, when you are old you don´t.
 
Bostrom
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:11 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:46 pm

Can anyone explain Labour's plan for Brexit? They want to honour the result, so they are against revoking article 50. They didn't like the deal, so they voted against it, but they are also against a no deal brexit. What do they actually want, apart from an election?
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8791
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:00 pm

Bostrom wrote:
Can anyone explain Labour's plan for Brexit? They want to honour the result, so they are against revoking article 50. They didn't like the deal, so they voted against it, but they are also against a no deal brexit. What do they actually want, apart from an election?


A unicorn, as Dano noted above.

The Labour Party is hopelessly divided on the issue, with the majority of Labour MPs remainders but with a significant number of Labour seats voting leave, and the party is led by a lifelong Eurosceptic.

More than his opinions on Europe, however, Corbyn knows that the country is split on the issue and if he takes a strong stance one way or another he is potentially alienating half of the country. Corbyn is a populist of the worse kind so that is unpalatable to him. Instead he tries to do as little as possible, speak out of both sides of his mouth, and hope and pray that this brings down the Conservative Party (and possibly the country) and that the people turn to him to rise from the ashes.

This could have been a 'strategy' 18 months ago, but IMHO at this juncture it shows that Corbyn is not fit to be a national leader. The current situation calls for the government and opposition to work together across party lines before the country goes off a cliff. Instead Corbyn isn't prepared to put aside party politics (and personal popularity) to work in the national interest.
 
salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:20 am

Here's a opinionated overview on Brexit that seems to hit the nail on the head for me. Everything I already know about the last 120 or so years of British history is covered by this writer. I suspect his take on what will happen without a second referendum may be accurate too.

The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opin ... ion=Footer
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:56 am

And May refuses to rule out the Hard Brexit, so we know what is coming. No changes to red lines and no delay, only leaves this option.
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 2752
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:51 pm

For those that don't know his blog, an update to Chris Grey's Brexit blog has come out today

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

Chris Grey is a professor at the University of London, and his blogs are often a very helpful, fact based analysis of the political aspects of Brexit.

well worth putting in your browser bookmarks to try and make sense of what is going on!
 
wingman
Posts: 4197
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:49 pm

Richard28 wrote:
For those that don't know his blog, an update to Chris Grey's Brexit blog has come out today

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

Chris Grey is a professor at the University of London, and his blogs are often a very helpful, fact based analysis of the political aspects of Brexit.

well worth putting in your browser bookmarks to try and make sense of what is going on!


Some people come up with some truly great lines and this guy is one of them -
"Despite their political differences, May and Corbyn are remarkably similar in their grotesque rigidity, and their slightly tetchy muleishness born of a mediocrity of character, intellect and judgment." I'm going to work "tetchy muleishness" into my next presentation.

What I'd be curious to learn about is the actual process of how the referendum question came to be and what the "ruling class" thought it was doing in asking a simple question so destructive in its absence of context or consequence. They forced the entire country to play Russian Roulette but forgot to unload 5 of the 6 rounds. I wake up every day completely baffled at this collective failure of Britain's best and brightest. I think the only way to force some kind of consensus is for the EU to hold fast to the deadline and then be ready to do its best to save the UK..and let's be honest here..the EU itself, the US, Canada etc etc once the true suffering sets in. If the UK economy crashes in flames I think it'll make us all yearn for the simpler crashes of '29 and '08.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15876
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:56 pm

wingman wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

What I'd be curious to learn about is the actual process of how the referendum question came to be and what the "ruling class" thought it was doing in asking a simple question so destructive in its absence of context or consequence. They forced the entire country to play Russian Roulette but forgot to unload 5 of the 6 rounds. I wake up every day completely baffled at this collective failure of Britain's best and brightest. I think the only way to force some kind of consensus is for the EU to hold fast to the deadline and then be ready to do its best to save the UK..and let's be honest here..the EU itself, the US, Canada etc etc once the true suffering sets in. If the UK economy crashes in flames I think it'll make us all yearn for the simpler crashes of '29 and '08.


An article written in the NY Times brought up the reality that the UK leadership is usually men (and a few women) who went to Oxford or Cambridge, so part of the 'club' of the wealthy and unknowing of poverty. Perhaps if their leaders went to some lesser University or went to other than your elite primary education boarding schools, maybe you wouldn't have the crises you have now.
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4251
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:44 pm

wingman wrote:
What I'd be curious to learn about is the actual process of how the referendum question came to be and what the "ruling class" thought it was doing in asking a simple question so destructive in its absence of context or consequence. They forced the entire country to play Russian Roulette but forgot to unload 5 of the 6 rounds. I wake up every day completely baffled at this collective failure of Britain's best and brightest.

If a business consultant or an architect would have produced such a mess you would ask him to rectify his mistake and you would ask his professional insurance company to pay for the damages. Unfortunately, something like this doesn’t exist in politics...

Ex PM Cameron can be glad that he was the leader of the modern United Kingdom. Would he have produced such a mess in the ancient Japan, people would have given him a sword and would have said „you know what to do...“
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4251
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:45 pm

salttee wrote:
Here's a opinionated overview on Brexit that seems to hit the nail on the head for me. Everything I already know about the last 120 or so years of British history is covered by this writer. I suspect his take on what will happen without a second referendum may be accurate too.

The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opin ... ion=Footer


Richard28 wrote:
For those that don't know his blog, an update to Chris Grey's Brexit blog has come out today

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

Chris Grey is a professor at the University of London, and his blogs are often a very helpful, fact based analysis of the political aspects of Brexit.

well worth putting in your browser bookmarks to try and make sense of what is going on!

Thanks for the two links. Very good stuff.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:17 am

Maybe there should be a second referendum after all. Perhaps one with three options:

1) A hard-Brexit
2) A "Norwegian option"
3) Remain

These three options would need to be accompanied with a detailed explanation of what would happen under each scenario. What would stay the same and what would change.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21638
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:33 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Maybe there should be a second referendum after all. Perhaps one with three options:

1) A hard-Brexit
2) A "Norwegian option"
3) Remain

These three options would need to be accompanied with a detailed explanation of what would happen under each scenario. What would stay the same and what would change.

The UK can't unilaterally choose a "Norway option" – that might only be the result of additional negotiations if the UK, the EU and the existing EFTA countries actually agree on that, and the latter point is much less certain than many UK politicians believe. And those negotiations can only start once there is a ratified Withdrawal Agreement.

Right now it's only about the Withdrawal Agreement, so the middle option would have to be "The negotiated Withdrawal Deal".
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:37 am

Klaus wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Maybe there should be a second referendum after all. Perhaps one with three options:

1) A hard-Brexit
2) A "Norwegian option"
3) Remain

These three options would need to be accompanied with a detailed explanation of what would happen under each scenario. What would stay the same and what would change.

The UK can't unilaterally choose a "Norway option" – that might only be the result of additional negotiations if the UK, the EU and the existing EFTA countries actually agree on that, and the latter point is much less certain than many UK politicians believe. And those negotiations can only start once there is a ratified Withdrawal Agreement.

Right now it's only about the Withdrawal Agreement, so the middle option would have to be "The negotiated Withdrawal Deal".


Well, the UK would have needed to negotiate the three options in advance and THEN present them to the public. Just like a regular election: you read the programs of each party and THEN decide whom you will vote for.
 
salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:08 am

IMO May should cancel Brexit on her own. She can always seek political asylum in Canada; she could move in with Saudi girl. Saudi girl would do well to have a well to do roommate who never gets any visitors.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7173
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:14 am

Klaus wrote:
The UK can't unilaterally choose a "Norway option" – that might only be the result of additional negotiations if the UK, the EU and the existing EFTA countries actually agree on that, and the latter point is much less certain than many UK politicians believe. And those negotiations can only start once there is a ratified Withdrawal Agreement.

Right now it's only about the Withdrawal Agreement, so the middle option would have to be "The negotiated Withdrawal Deal".

Yeah, right, UK membership of EFTA seems for the time being to be a no-starter. The EFTA countries do not want to get involved in the chaos by having UK as a new member, five times the size of all present day members combined. The Norwegian PM Mrs. Solberg has indicated that a couple of times while Iceland and Switzerland politely kept noses below horizon.

But it shouldn't be impossible to make a copy of the "Norway option" outside EFTA. Nothing forbids the EU to have EU-EFTA style relations with multiple such organizations, even with such an organization consisting of one country only.

But the timing makes such speculation rather irrelevant. Nothing happens from now until the 29 January voting on TM's "Plan B". 29 March is just around the corner, and it isn't even leap year until next year.

I can't see a Norway style option unless EU27 and UK very soon agrees upon postponement of brexit day way beyond March this year. And I can't see EU27 agree on postponement unless there is a high probability of success. Such high probability would as minimum demand a new House of Commons.
 
ChrisKen
Posts: 1096
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:15 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:51 pm

salttee wrote:
IMO May should cancel Brexit on her own.

Unfortunately she can't. Although it can be done relatively simply (with respect to procedure) via parliamentary process.
 
Bostrom
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:11 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:52 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
Can anyone explain Labour's plan for Brexit? They want to honour the result, so they are against revoking article 50. They didn't like the deal, so they voted against it, but they are also against a no deal brexit. What do they actually want, apart from an election?


A unicorn, as Dano noted above.

The Labour Party is hopelessly divided on the issue, with the majority of Labour MPs remainders but with a significant number of Labour seats voting leave, and the party is led by a lifelong Eurosceptic.

More than his opinions on Europe, however, Corbyn knows that the country is split on the issue and if he takes a strong stance one way or another he is potentially alienating half of the country. Corbyn is a populist of the worse kind so that is unpalatable to him. Instead he tries to do as little as possible, speak out of both sides of his mouth, and hope and pray that this brings down the Conservative Party (and possibly the country) and that the people turn to him to rise from the ashes.

This could have been a 'strategy' 18 months ago, but IMHO at this juncture it shows that Corbyn is not fit to be a national leader. The current situation calls for the government and opposition to work together across party lines before the country goes off a cliff. Instead Corbyn isn't prepared to put aside party politics (and personal popularity) to work in the national interest.


Your probably right. But what would Corbyn do if he was elected PM? Go to Brussels and demand a unicorn? Or is he secretly praying there won't be a general election before March 29 so that he doesn't have to deliver a unicorn and can just blame the Tories for everything?
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:29 pm

Option b - the economic downturn would increase the chances of Labour to gain power and nationalize key industries after that. And in addition those industries can not go to the European courts to stop him from doing it.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8791
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:03 pm

Bostrom wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
Can anyone explain Labour's plan for Brexit? They want to honour the result, so they are against revoking article 50. They didn't like the deal, so they voted against it, but they are also against a no deal brexit. What do they actually want, apart from an election?


A unicorn, as Dano noted above.

The Labour Party is hopelessly divided on the issue, with the majority of Labour MPs remainders but with a significant number of Labour seats voting leave, and the party is led by a lifelong Eurosceptic.

More than his opinions on Europe, however, Corbyn knows that the country is split on the issue and if he takes a strong stance one way or another he is potentially alienating half of the country. Corbyn is a populist of the worse kind so that is unpalatable to him. Instead he tries to do as little as possible, speak out of both sides of his mouth, and hope and pray that this brings down the Conservative Party (and possibly the country) and that the people turn to him to rise from the ashes.

This could have been a 'strategy' 18 months ago, but IMHO at this juncture it shows that Corbyn is not fit to be a national leader. The current situation calls for the government and opposition to work together across party lines before the country goes off a cliff. Instead Corbyn isn't prepared to put aside party politics (and personal popularity) to work in the national interest.


Your probably right. But what would Corbyn do if he was elected PM? Go to Brussels and demand a unicorn? Or is he secretly praying there won't be a general election before March 29 so that he doesn't have to deliver a unicorn and can just blame the Tories for everything?


I don't know what his end game is. I think he is definitely praying that there won't be a general election before Brexit, but that there is one shortly afterwards. A bad Brexit outcome coupled with the Tory's lack of focus on domestic issues such as the NHS gives a strong basis to run an election campaign against the incumbent government on the basis of 'give us a chance, these guys are incompetent, we can't be any worse'. The vote of no confidence was nothing more than political theatre as the outcome was already know once DUP and ERG made it clear they would vote with the government. What it did do was maintain pressure on the government and kept the aura of a government in chaos alive in the media. These ripples keep rocking the boat and eventually it will capsize, just not yet.

If he became PM before Brexit be will be forced into taking a position, a real position not just some glib statements about a better deal, and that would divide Labour even more than the Conservatives are divided now. He will also be lumped with a good portion of the blame when the outcome of Brexit isn't any better than what is on the table now.

I lean left-of-centre politically, but dispair at the current state of the British Labour Party. The lack of leadership and hopeless opportunism from Corbyn is inexcusable IMHO. He would happily drive the country off a cliff for his own personal political gain. At this dark hour your service to the country requires working across the parliament to find a path through that can get 320-ish votes. Sitting in your lofty tower and hoping that the muck from the inevitable shit storm doesn't stick to you is a dereliction of duty IMHO.
 
LA787
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:33 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:34 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
I don't know what his end game is. I think he is definitely praying that there won't be a general election before Brexit, but that there is one shortly afterwards.


That's exactly his endgame, which is why his position is probably more beneficial to Brexiteers than it is to Remainers. He wants to avoid having to deal with Brexit, which means that an exit on 29 March suits him perfectly, while an extension to Article 50 does not.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:27 am

LA787 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
I don't know what his end game is. I think he is definitely praying that there won't be a general election before Brexit, but that there is one shortly afterwards.


That's exactly his endgame, which is why his position is probably more beneficial to Brexiteers than it is to Remainers. He wants to avoid having to deal with Brexit, which means that an exit on 29 March suits him perfectly, while an extension to Article 50 does not.


So you're saying he is only interested in his own career and not the well-being of the British?
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3713
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:21 am

I don't think JC is in politics for personal gain, or he wouldn't have been rowing against the stream for all those years when New Labour was almost cuddled to dead by the popular/populist press and big business leaders alike.
Sadly for the UK, JC is an ideologist, a old school marxist that sees the Conservatives are creating the perfect environment for his recipes from the past to be given a go by the people.
I agree with the remarks above he doesn't want to postpone Brexit nor remain bound by the ECJ or the SM rules, because those will prevent him from returning to the 1960s economic model.

The irony of all this is that a handful of very wealthy and very egocentric conservative Brexiteers have successfully managed to make enough common people in the UK believe that all of their worries are due to the EU in the hope they would gain enough popular traction to rid their own businesses from the "expensive constraints" of EU membership, but that once the UK will be out of the EU those very same common people who voted for Brexit will also vote the Conservatives out, after which Old Labour will not hesitate to strip all those fatcats who lay the basis of them coming to power via a disasterous brexit process of their wealth and influence.

As so often, the children of a revolution eat their own fathers…

A small long term prediction of mine:
The full consequences of a hard Brexit cost the Conservatives the next general election, possibly because of a split in the Tory party even
JC becomes the next PM of the UK
the UK economy tanks
Conservatives (or what remains of it) focus on becoming the party of business again
the country falls apart in the wake of the blame game over who is responsible for the mess it will be in, with JC allowing Scotland and NI to split away
the Conservatives win the election on a strongly European manifesto
but not before the UK has gone through an economic recession, while having lost Scotland to independence and NI to sectarian violence.
the United Kingdom of England and Wales can then try to rejoin the EU as a medium sized country the importance of The Netherlands…

This, or TM could finally give up her self imposed red lines to prevent all this from having to happen first before common sense settles in.
 
LA787
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:33 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:34 am

Dieuwer wrote:
So you're saying he is only interested in his own career and not the well-being of the British?


Yes. If he and his party were interested in finding a solution to the present litany of problems, he would, at the very least, engage in talks with the Prime Minister.
As it happens, the Labour Party is only interested in using the current situation as a means of obtaining power. Like I said, that could be good for Brexiteers, because if he has convinced himself he'll be in power soon enough, he has no incentive to delay Brexit.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12722
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:49 am

My take, nobody in British politics wants a real solution, otherwise, we would not be in this mess.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
Posts: 1649
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:29 pm

I think that a no deal is unavoidable.

Since TM lancaster house speech she appeared to be a hard brexiter that only faked negotiation with the EU.

Her brexit secretaries choices were not an accident and a parody. She just needed to save time until march 29.
 
User avatar
SQ22
Moderator
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:02 pm

Please continue your discussion here:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1413503

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Alias1024, bpatus297, IADCA, seb146 and 28 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos