Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:04 am

scbriml wrote:
I said all along that A50 was badly written, wasn’t clear and hadn’t been proven legally.

Assuming the ECJ follows the Advocate General’s advice, this is very good news for the UK.

I’m sorry that Klaus and Tommy will be very disappointed by this result, but some of us felt this was entirely possible all along.

It is not "the result", but only an opinion, and one which looks like an extreme Hail Mary attempt to build am extra-special bespoke golden bride to the specific, exceptional and completely one-sided benefit of the UK to the massive detriment of the EU and to all of its other 27 members, and that latter aspect of this opinion is so egregiously ill-defined in the opinion that the court adopting this would throw the foundations of the EU into total chaos pretty much immediately, just in the faint hope that maybe the UK would in a delusionally unlikely moment of clarity actually grasp for such an ill-constructed straw.

And that on the basis of a number of far-fetched to utterly mistaken and (from the perspective of the EU) completely unfounded and unjustified assumptions.

I’m happy.

This opinion is so badly written that the court would shoot its own credibility in the head if it actually adopted this, and I don't see that happening.

That said, I still think there’s only a small chance that the UK would revoke A50.

Yeah, why stop on the road to self-destruction now, of all times!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:38 am

The full text of the opinion is here:
http://curia.europa.eu/juris/celex.jsf? ... TXT&ancre=

The summarizing press release for it is here:
https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/doc ... 0187en.pdf

The press release is shorter and easier to read, but the long form has even more holes, inconsistencies, flimsy wishful thinking and unfounded and unexplained dismissals of obvious counterpoints. Most of the objections to the issue I and others have already made earlier in this thread directly plug into the gaping holes in this opinion. Some of those are large enough that you could drive a channel ferry through and there are even fatal internal inconsistencies within the opinion itself.

It looks a lot as if Mr. Campos Sánchez-Bordona is trying to forcibly put a crowbar to the EU treaties to somehow bend history to take another path out of personal or other preference or to win himself a place in the history books, completely ignoring the legal and logical inconsistencies and the damage that would do.

My expectation is that the court will reject the substance of the opinion but for nominal appeasement may still recommend additional explicit clarifications in the treaty text.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:06 am

Richard28 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Most interesting is the Greive ammendent which means Mps will have to have a 'meaningful vote' if / when the May agreement is voted down. Means the chances of a no deal are extremely slim.


Which could also have the effect of making some ardent Brexiters accept this deal. Probably won't be enough to make it pass but will be interesting to see.

If the Theresa May deal fails on Tuesday, combined with the Article 50 news earlier today, the prospect of a final say referendum are increased markedly.

To me this is looking like we are heading for a No Deal / Remain final say referendum.....


I think those really hard headed Brexiteers will only vote for a no deal and won't vote for Mays whatever that could lead to. On the other hand I thi k you are right, it will sway some Tory MPs to vote for it as it's more likely to be the o my type of Brexit they could get.

I think a final hard out / remain ref is now very likely. I do have concerns that it will be a lot closer than people think.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:31 am

I think the key question is: will some Labor PM's vote for May's deal? What do you see as your ultimate duty: politics? (May's downfall + new elections) Country interest? If your country's interests are at heart, I would hope the second will prevail, no matter what your politics are.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:35 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
The irony of the UK losing access to systems like SISII harms the EU members more than the UK. Without access we will no longer be able to identify European arrest warrants at the Border nor identify children that are missing.


Another flawed "they need us more than we need them" argument....

Let's look at the numbers, on leaving SIS2:

UK Loses data/access to information on population of approx 450 million from 29 countries (EU countries + Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, but not including Ireland and Cyprus)
EU Loses data/access to information on population of approx 60 million from 1 country

The UK loses access to significantly more information and is clearly more harmed from this than the EU.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:56 am

Richard28 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
The irony of the UK losing access to systems like SISII harms the EU members more than the UK. Without access we will no longer be able to identify European arrest warrants at the Border nor identify children that are missing.


Another flawed "they need us more than we need them" argument....

Let's look at the numbers, on leaving SIS2:

UK Loses data/access to information on population of approx 450 million from 29 countries (EU countries + Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, but not including Ireland and Cyprus)
EU Loses data/access to information on population of approx 60 million from 1 country

The UK loses access to significantly more information and is clearly more harmed from this than the EU.


True. We lose a lot more. But EU countries losing children and those under European arrest warrants, wont go down well with EU citizens
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:01 am

Dutchy wrote:
I think the key question is: will some Labor PM's vote for May's deal? What do you see as your ultimate duty: politics? (May's downfall + new elections) Country interest? If your country's interests are at heart, I would hope the second will prevail, no matter what your politics are.


I don't think there will be enough Labour politicians who will go with this (they can smell blood), and it wont offset the rebel Tory's (and others including the DUP, SNP and Lib Dems) who will vote this deal down.

Listening to the radio this morning, many Tory MP's still think that they can "go back to Brussels and re-negotiate", "stand firm" and "not be bullied"!

It defies all commons sense... this is field of dreams politics... they think if you just believe hard enough....!!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:08 am

Reinhardt wrote:
I think a final hard out / remain ref is now very likely. I do have concerns that it will be a lot closer than people think.


I share your fear here.

It is quite incredible to see the evolution of thought from the Brexit people I know. They have gone from thinking they can save £350m a week for the NHS, to a position of not minding if there is economic damage and lost jobs as long as we just leave.

Quite incredible that they manage to keep a straight face. But then if you just read certain newspapers and are continually fed with misinformation then it is no surprise unfortunately.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:13 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
True. We lose a lot more.


good so we agree.

noviorbis77 wrote:
But EU countries losing children and those under European arrest warrants, wont go down well with EU citizens


what are you talking about, what lost children? and in any case would that not apply to the UK too?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:17 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
wont go down well with EU citizens


They pretty much won´t even notice, and won´t care anymore than with regards to any other 3rd country.

At the moment lots is happening with regards to Brexit, go to the homepage of news media from the continent and check how important Brexit is. On http://www.spiegel.de/ you have to scroll almost all the way down to the bottom to find a Brexit headline at all. Same with other media.

You know, we don´t want you to leave, but we respect the decision if you do, but for the most part hardly anyone cares what the eventual outcome will be, and have not cared in a long, long time.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:19 am

We don't plan to arrest Peter Pan so all should be fine.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:13 am

tommy1808 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
wont go down well with EU citizens


They pretty much won´t even notice, and won´t care anymore than with regards to any other 3rd country.

At the moment lots is happening with regards to Brexit, go to the homepage of news media from the continent and check how important Brexit is. On http://www.spiegel.de/ you have to scroll almost all the way down to the bottom to find a Brexit headline at all. Same with other media.

You know, we don´t want you to leave, but we respect the decision if you do, but for the most part hardly anyone cares what the eventual outcome will be, and have not cared in a long, long time.

best regards
Thomas


Yup completely right. I'm a Brit living in Germany (For the last 4 years), and nobody talks to me about it any more. It's just a passing joke at lunch at most now. People were just very confused and rather fed up with everything they heard coming out of the UK. Now it's just old news and doesn't affect them so on with life.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:58 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I think the key question is: will some Labor PM's vote for May's deal? What do you see as your ultimate duty: politics? (May's downfall + new elections) Country interest? If your country's interests are at heart, I would hope the second will prevail, no matter what your politics are.


I don't think there will be enough Labour politicians who will go with this (they can smell blood), and it wont offset the rebel Tory's (and others including the DUP, SNP and Lib Dems) who will vote this deal down.

Listening to the radio this morning, many Tory MP's still think that they can "go back to Brussels and re-negotiate", "stand firm" and "not be bullied"!

It defies all commons sense... this is field of dreams politics... they think if you just believe hard enough....!!



All should be voted out of office by the next election for endangering the future of the UK. Watching this is like watching a crazy roller coaster in the past 2,5years.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:06 pm

Richard28 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
True. We lose a lot more.


good so we agree.

noviorbis77 wrote:
But EU countries losing children and those under European arrest warrants, wont go down well with EU citizens


what are you talking about, what lost children? and in any case would that not apply to the UK too?


What he seems to be saying is that UK residents perform most child kidnappings and other serious crime in Europe.

Another demonstration of Brexiteer logic at work...
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:06 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Listening to the radio this morning, many Tory MP's still think that they can "go back to Brussels and re-negotiate", "stand firm" and "not be bullied"!

It defies all commons sense... this is field of dreams politics... they think if you just believe hard enough....!!


Pretty much the strategy of Brexiteers from day one - empty slogans and meaningless catchphrases.

The publishing of the full legal advice given to the Government will be the final nail in May's deal.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... reland.pdf

My expectation is that the deal will be rejected by Parliamnet on 11th. Labour are not strong enough to force a General Election, so I see the distinct possibility of a "People's Vote" between a no-deal Brexit and remaining in the EU.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:22 pm

scbriml wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Listening to the radio this morning, many Tory MP's still think that they can "go back to Brussels and re-negotiate", "stand firm" and "not be bullied"!

It defies all commons sense... this is field of dreams politics... they think if you just believe hard enough....!!


Pretty much the strategy of Brexiteers from day one - empty slogans and meaningless catchphrases.

The publishing of the full legal advice given to the Government will be the final nail in May's deal.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... reland.pdf

My expectation is that the deal will be rejected by Parliamnet on 11th. Labour are not strong enough to force a General Election, so I see the distinct possibility of a "People's Vote" between a no-deal Brexit and remaining in the EU.


Frankly, I'm almost as angry with Labour cynically trying to exploit the situation instead of addressing the issue properly (constantly trying to push the debate towards an election - like that can solve anything in the next two months!?!) as I am with Tories being so selfish/stupid/ignorant/arrogant/disorganised/incompetent causing the mess in the first place.

The last couple of weeks have brought a glimmer of hope that the whole thing will come crashing down at last - with the only way out being a referendum recommending remain under existing terms... No deal is suicide, May's deal is just remain with less power and sovereignty, and a better deal can no longer be negotiated...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:47 pm

Hammond just said that Dover will need about 2 years to get ready for a No-Deal-Brexit
I can't stop laughing, I am sorry
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:52 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Hammond just said that Dover will need about 2 years to get ready for a No-Deal-Brexit
I can't stop laughing, I am sorry


While what he says might be true, it's just a scare tactic to try and convince MPs to back May's Brexit deal.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
Hammond just said that Dover will need about 2 years to get ready for a No-Deal-Brexit
I can't stop laughing, I am sorry


While what he says might be true, it's just a scare tactic to try and convince MPs to back May's Brexit deal.


Is there any infrastructure in place to process a few thousand trucks daily? No-Deal-Brexit means full border checks. I don't think that was a scare tactic.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:02 pm

A3801000 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
Hammond just said that Dover will need about 2 years to get ready for a No-Deal-Brexit
I can't stop laughing, I am sorry


While what he says might be true, it's just a scare tactic to try and convince MPs to back May's Brexit deal.


Is there any infrastructure in place to process a few thousand trucks daily? No-Deal-Brexit means full border checks. I don't think that was a scare tactic.


Yup It's correct. Port of Dover have said so, local MP has said so, anyone who has travelled through Dover knows it's true. Massive number of staff increases needed along with infrastructure (which there is very little space to build). Channel Tunnel the same - more space but sure will need to purchase land, build, employ etc. Will need time.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:32 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Hammond just said that Dover will need about 2 years to get ready for a No-Deal-Brexit
I can't stop laughing, I am sorry


The British used to be well known for their farce (in the theatre)...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:45 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Is there any infrastructure in place to process a few thousand trucks daily? No-Deal-Brexit means full border checks. I don't think that was a scare tactic.


Even without border checks, there's often a tailback of lorries queuing/parked for miles along the A20.

A3801000 wrote:
I don't think that was a scare tactic.


He was giving evidence to the Commons Treasury committee and his comments were clearly designed to put the frightners up MPs that are considering voting against May's deal. He was using it as an example of what might happen if we leave the EU without a deal (so MPs had better vote for it!)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:21 pm

scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
Is there any infrastructure in place to process a few thousand trucks daily? No-Deal-Brexit means full border checks. I don't think that was a scare tactic.


Even without border checks, there's often a tailback of lorries queuing/parked for miles along the A20.

A3801000 wrote:
I don't think that was a scare tactic.


He was giving evidence to the Commons Treasury committee and his comments were clearly designed to put the frightners up MPs that are considering voting against May's deal. He was using it as an example of what might happen if we leave the EU without a deal (so MPs had better vote for it!)


So, if there is a No-Deal-Brexit how will trucks be processed at the border come March 30th 2019?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:42 pm

A3801000 wrote:
So, if there is a No-Deal-Brexit how will trucks be processed at the border come March 30th 2019?


I'm not arguing that what he's saying won't happen, just that he's only saying it now to put pressure on MPs to approve May's deal.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:50 pm

Richard28 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
True. We lose a lot more.


good so we agree.

noviorbis77 wrote:
But EU countries losing children and those under European arrest warrants, wont go down well with EU citizens


what are you talking about, what lost children? and in any case would that not apply to the UK too?


Any children from the EU that are reported missing appear on the SISII database. This does not include British children. It also includes children whereby custody remains with one parent and at the UK Border it would be flagged that they are missing. Without SISII access, these children would not be flagged at UK Border.

Same with European arrest warrants. The UK will no longer be aware that an EU national is wanted by the police in their relevant EU country.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:02 pm

So taking back control of law and borders means UK police effectively will no longer be able to stop, arrest and expel criminals hiding in the UK.
Sounds like one of the greater success stories of Brexit then!
ROTF
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:43 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Same with European arrest warrants. The UK will no longer be aware that an EU national is wanted by the police in their relevant EU country.


Thus the UK would become a safe haven and transfer point for criminals... I don't know if the UK would like to be known for that.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:23 pm

LJ wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Same with European arrest warrants. The UK will no longer be aware that an EU national is wanted by the police in their relevant EU country.


Thus the UK would become a safe haven and transfer point for criminals... I don't know if the UK would like to be known for that.


And when was Interpol shut down? The European system is more effective and less burocratic, but it is by no means the only system to facilitate such.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:49 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
So taking back control of law and borders means UK police effectively will no longer be able to stop, arrest and expel criminals hiding in the UK.
Sounds like one of the greater success stories of Brexit then!
ROTF


It is not really a laughing matter.

UK criminals can up and enter the EU as much as those could up and travel to the UK.

Plus I would guess that the victims of crimes would rather see the offenders punished and face justice, rather than flee to the UK.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:54 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
So taking back control of law and borders means UK police effectively will no longer be able to stop, arrest and expel criminals hiding in the UK.
Sounds like one of the greater success stories of Brexit then!
ROTF


It is not really a laughing matter.

UK criminals can up and enter the EU as much as those could up and travel to the UK.

Plus I would guess that the victims of crimes would rather see the offenders punished and face justice, rather than flee to the UK.


Since a win-win would be to stay connected to this system, I think the UK and the EU will figure something out, don't you?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:55 am

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
So taking back control of law and borders means UK police effectively will no longer be able to stop, arrest and expel criminals hiding in the UK.
Sounds like one of the greater success stories of Brexit then!
ROTF


It is not really a laughing matter.

UK criminals can up and enter the EU as much as those could up and travel to the UK.

Plus I would guess that the victims of crimes would rather see the offenders punished and face justice, rather than flee to the UK.


Since a win-win would be to stay connected to this system, I think the UK and the EU will figure something out, don't you?


I’d hope so. Just because we are not in the same club, we can work together to protect all of our citizens.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:00 am

The ECJ final decision on the ability of the UK to unilaterally revoke article 50 will be announced at 8am UK time on Monday 10th December.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:45 am

So it looks like Norway+ is as dead as parrot.

Norway has said it will not accept UK joining EFTA.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-plan

fair use exert:

Explaining Norway’s fear of the UK joining the Efta club she said: “The three countries in Efta have to agree on all the regulations coming from the EU so if one country vetoes something we all have to veto which means that if the UK enters the Efta platform and starts to veto regulations that we want, this will affect not just the UK but also us as well. Part of the success we have had with this EEA agreement is for the last 25 years is that we do accept the rules and regulations that do come out of the EU, mostly because it is in our interest.

“If as I understand UK politicians do not want to be ruled by regulations coming from other countries, why would they accept a country with 38,000 citizens like Lichtenstein being able to veto regulations that the UK wants. That would be the reality.”


You can see Norway's position, the UK would, based on last two years experience, be an unwelcome member and upset the balance and harmony that exists within EFTA.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:08 am

Aww bless. People think that the ECJ will announce on Monday (perfect timing, how very EU!) that we can cancel A50, that May’s dodgy deal will be voted (quite rightly) down on Tuesday and that on Wednesday they will announce a second referendum designed to reverse the result of the first one or ‘People’s Vote’ (lol) will be announced on Wednesday and that we will remain are tragically deluded.
Diversity is our strength. Unless it's diversity of opinion, then anything is fair game.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:15 am

On BBC's Question Time last night, Labour's Shami Chakrabarti was still calling for a Gerneral Election and claiming that Labour would renegotiate a better deal (without of course going into the details of how that deal could be negotiated in time or how it would be better). :rotfl:

Richard28 wrote:
So it looks like Norway+ is as dead as parrot.


Nice reference! :yes:
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:42 am

scbriml wrote:
Nice reference! :yes:


thank you!

always worth some Python humour!

Image
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:57 am

sevenair wrote:
Aww bless. People think that the ECJ will announce on Monday (perfect timing, how very EU!) that we can cancel A50,


:checkmark: looks likely

sevenair wrote:
that May’s dodgy deal will be voted (quite rightly) down on Tuesday


:checkmark: looks likely

sevenair wrote:
they will announce a second referendum designed to reverse the result of the first one or ‘People’s Vote’ (lol) will be announced on Wednesday and that we will remain are tragically deluded.


who knows on that one, it may happen at some point, not so sure about next week though.

It also seems there is a majority in the commons to block a "No Deal" Brexit

What do you think will happen?
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:06 am

scbriml wrote:
On BBC's Question Time last night, Labour's Shami Chakrabarti was still calling for a Gerneral Election and claiming that Labour would renegotiate a better deal (without of course going into the details of how that deal could be negotiated in time or how it would be better). :rotfl:
.


Labours position baffles me,

  • With the Fixed Term Parliament Act, Labour alone cannot force a general election, and it would appear there is no appetite for one amongst conservatives, so this is unlikely.
  • Even if they were elected, and assuming they won a majority (unlikely) they would not be in place until will into next year, meaning an extension of Article 50 (or revocation) would be needed - but they do not speak about this.
  • The EU have stated clearly that there will be no re-negotiation in any event
  • Brexit cuts across party lines, so there would be no consensus from a General Election on how we we should proceed in any event - just look at the 2017 General Election, it cleared up nothing.

The Labour leadership just want power it seems, Brexit policy and a way through this mess is secondary.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 16131
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:59 am

Richard28 wrote:
who knows on that one, it may happen at some point, not so sure about next week though.

It also seems there is a majority in the commons to block a "No Deal" Brexit


There's writing on the wall, but some, it seems, cannot read it.

Richard28 wrote:
Labours position baffles me


It's clear all they're interested in is getting into power and they'll say and do anything to achieve it. Promises of unicorns and sparkly rainbows for everyone.

Richard28 wrote:
With the Fixed Term Parliament Act, Labour alone cannot force a general election, and it would appear there is no appetite for one amongst conservatives, so this is unlikely.


Yes, she complained about that. Even Dimbleby pointed out to her that Corbyn accepted there was next to nothing that Labour could do to force an election.

Richard28 wrote:
Even if they were elected, and assuming they won a majority (unlikely) they would not be in place until will into next year, meaning an extension of Article 50 (or revocation) would be needed - but they do not speak about this.


Just minor details. Don't sweat the small stuff!

Richard28 wrote:
The EU have stated clearly that there will be no re-negotiation in any event


Indeed.

Richard28 wrote:
Brexit cuts across party lines, so there would be no consensus from a General Election on how we we should proceed in any event - just look at the 2017 General Election, it cleared up nothing.


If politicians were really interested in what's best for the UK rather than themselves and their parties, we would have had a cross-party Brexit Government whose sole job would have been to deliver the best Brexit possible for the country. Of course, that was never going to happen.

Richard28 wrote:
The Labour leadership just want power it seems, Brexit policy and a way through this mess is secondary.


A member of the QT audience said exactly that to Chakrabarti!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:42 am

I am a bit surprised that Labour seems to have no solution other than a new General election. I heard an interview with some Labour frontbencher yesterday claiming that they would do a much better job at it since they are not as divided on brexit as the Tories are. But I have to say that MPs like Kate Hoey and Chuka Umunna gives a different impression.

But to be fair, "getting a better deal" seems to be exactly the same plan as Boris Johnson has.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:54 am

Bostrom wrote:

But to be fair, "getting a better deal" seems to be exactly the same plan as Boris Johnson has.


Everyone says they can get a better deal. It's the details on how that's missing.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:02 pm

The deal could be so much better, if the EU would believe that the UK would rather have no deal than a bad deal.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:16 pm

Bostrom wrote:
I am a bit surprised that Labour seems to have no solution other than a new General election. I heard an interview with some Labour frontbencher yesterday claiming that they would do a much better job at it since they are not as divided on brexit as the Tories are. But I have to say that MPs like Kate Hoey and Chuka Umunna gives a different impression.


Brexit had divided the country. The two main parties are just as divided as the rest of the country. Brexit is not a party-political situation, but of course that doesn't stop politicians from using it for their own benefit.

Bostrom wrote:
But to be fair, "getting a better deal" seems to be exactly the same plan as Boris Johnson has.


And all the leading Brexiteers. Long on catchphrases and slogans, short on action and details.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:23 pm

seahawk wrote:
The deal could be so much better, if the EU would believe that the UK would rather have no deal than a bad deal.


This is an asymmetric prisoner's dilemma. The UK can yell all they want about how they're ready to go for no deal but in the end the EU still has less to lose (financially and structurally) than the UK.

There is very little incentive for the EU to offer significant concessions that will come back to bite them in the future. You can even argue that the current British position is a consequence of previous soft stances on British demands.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:24 pm

JJJ wrote:
Everyone says they can get a better deal. It's the details on how that's missing.


Saying you can get/could have got a better deal is very easy. You can shout it from the rooftops knowing full well that you don't have to do it and you're not responsible for delivering it. :banghead:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:26 pm

Richard28 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Nice reference! :yes:


thank you!

always worth some Python humour!

Image


Ha ha! Didn't spot that till scbriml mentioned it.

"Pinin' for the feejooords?! Ee's passed on!"
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
who knows on that one, it may happen at some point, not so sure about next week though.

It also seems there is a majority in the commons to block a "No Deal" Brexit


There's writing on the wall, but some, it seems, cannot read it.

Richard28 wrote:
Labours position baffles me


It's clear all they're interested in is getting into power and they'll say and do anything to achieve it. Promises of unicorns and sparkly rainbows for everyone.


Hence my increasing annoyance with them (see my post #1016 above). Seriously, just grow up and take a stand on things!
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:23 pm

Pigs can fly, and May's deal could soar. Most of us think not. In that case a decisive defeat would be useful. At that point a second vote either by parliament or referendum would be Remain or hard Brexit. Given the division within each party a free vote recommending one of the two and then referring it to the voters might produce the least destruction to civic unity. Muddling through needs to give way to a useful decision. A vote for hard Brexit still will need a Brexit delay so serious negotiations including WTO, bilateral with EU and across the globe can be synchronized.
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sevenair
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:37 pm

The urbanistas are spitting (vegan, of course) feathers. For decades their tactic of sniggering and branding people with a different opinion a racist has worked for decades but we little people from the North are striking back and dare I say 'taking back control'. Get used to it. You're actually going to have to work hard politically and taking the high ground and silencing valid yet opposing views is not how its going to be in future. We are taking the country back and brexit is just the start. Better start stocking up in your mars bars and drinking water chicks or whatever next week they'll be telling us we won't be able to import into our own country!

I am impressed that our resident lefties can even see labour's plan.
Diversity is our strength. Unless it's diversity of opinion, then anything is fair game.
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:05 pm

sevenair wrote:
The urbanistas are spitting (vegan, of course) feathers. For decades their tactic of sniggering and branding people with a different opinion a racist has worked for decades but we little people from the North are striking back and dare I say 'taking back control'. Get used to it. You're actually going to have to work hard politically and taking the high ground and silencing valid yet opposing views is not how its going to be in future. We are taking the country back and brexit is just the start. Better start stocking up in your mars bars and drinking water chicks or whatever next week they'll be telling us we won't be able to import into our own country!

I am impressed that our resident lefties can even see labour's plan.


I don't think anyone here is defending Labour's "plan". I think Corbyn's only plan is a GE and what he would actually do after that, who knows. His talk about being able to negotiate A Customs Union is nonsense, as is any talk of being able to go to Brussels if he were the PM to get a better deal. There is no other deal and there is no renegotiation. Other members in his party do have positions however, much more sensible ones at that. Chuka Umunna for example has a very clear policy - a peoples vote. I believe Kier Stamer's reputation is growing daily and unshackled from Corbyn I think he would have a stronger position as well.

Anyway, that's all irrelevant because they are't in power and it's highly unlikely they will be any time soon. More's the shame because right now i'd even take Corbyn with the complete shambles the Tories are making or Brexit and the country. And I've never voted for Labour in my lifetime.

If you're from up north shouldn't you be a labour voter anyway? UKIP are now finished so that's no option.

sevenair wrote:
We are taking the country back and brexit is just the start..


To what?

My famliy is from the North. I have family from Sheffield who used to run a steel works. The other side is in Sunderland and have friends who work for Nissan. Not all of them share your view on Brexit. They were teachers, civil servants, they went to the people's march in London. They've looked at the data, looked at the problems with no deal and understand how stupid and pointless it is.

sevenair wrote:
..silencing valid yet opposing views is not how its going to be in future


When offered facts backed up by data from various sources and expert opinions, people cry 'fake news', 'remoaners' etc. I think you need to re-look at which side has the problem here. We actually need people to start using more critical thinking, basic data analysis, reasoning and not basing opinions on what things people (who are popular because they are fun, a character, something a bit different) say. 9 times out of 10 it's rubbish.

And the media is massively to blame for giving platforms to these people to allow them to spout this nonsense with no recourse, never held to account. No wonder people think things are completely different than they actually are or the people to blame are not the ones they think are.

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