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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:09 pm

The effects are continuing to mount while Trump gets waited on hand and foot in the White House.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/201 ... 539865002/

In Missouri, some rural transit providers that rely heavily on federal funding are starting to lay off part-time drivers and prioritize services. Visits to the doctor will take precedent over shopping trips, for example.


In Oklahoma, about 45 upcoming road projects totaling more than $137 million are being delayed.



“Recipients are strongly encouraged to budget their (food stamp) benefits,” the Indiana Family and Social Services Administration said Friday when announcing the February aid will be distributed Wednesday.


Kristi Ponozzo with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality said her agency was eventually able to provide some guidance.

Other examples she cited of the impact of the EPA shutdown included a possible delay in a mining project because EPA staff is not available for consultation, and a delay in progress on cleanup of two Superfund sites in the state.


Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf's call to replace the voting machines in all of the state's 67 counties languishes because the Federal Election Commission is closed.

Cozzone, the Pennsylvania county official, said the goal is to have voting machines in place in time for the 2020 elections to create a paper trail to guard against outside meddling.
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winginit
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:20 pm

Bit of a two-part development as Republican Senators have realized that the optics may play into their favor if they come out of hiding and contribute to a potential solution to this shutdown.

On Sunday Lindsay Graham recommended Trump re-open the government for a short period of time, like three weeks, before pulling the trigger on declaring a state of emergency. It's worth noting that Graham also reiterated that Trump would not be giving into a solution that did not include funding for a border wall.

This morning Trump rejected that idea, stating:

“I’m not interested. I want to get it solved. I don’t want to just delay it. I want to get it solved,”


I interpret this as the Trump Administration moving one step closer to a State of Emergency declaration as a means to try and secure funding for a border wall.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:54 pm

Imagine the outrage if Trump went to Puerto Rico and took a vacation with lobbyists while the Dems waited in Washington. H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-T-E-S. Once again it shows who really cares about the common American.
 
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:05 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Imagine the outrage if Trump went to Puerto Rico and took a vacation with lobbyists while the Dems waited in Washington. H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-T-E-S. Once again it shows who really cares about the common American.

McConnell walked out on Friday to Kentucky and has declared the will not hold a vote. He is not doing his job. Just being a pansy for Donald Trump's lying ,racist agenda.

The Democrats might as well keep themselves occupied while the incompetent Trump flies to New Orleans, flies to Texas, has McDonald's with the College Champions, and self rages on Twitter. All while looking like a 2 year old to most sane folks.
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2122M
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:15 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Imagine the outrage if Trump went to Puerto Rico and took a vacation with lobbyists while the Dems waited in Washington. H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-T-E-S. Once again it shows who really cares about the common American.


What's worse: House Dems fundraising in Puerto Rico or the President raiding federal disaster relief funds that would be help Puerto Rico recover from past hurricanes and be better prepared for future storms?

Anyway, Its not like GOPers are getting anything done in Washington at the moment except figuring our how to deal with embarrassing representative from the state of Iowa. Mitch McConnell skipped town too (I'll bet any money he's doing a little fundraising while he's home too....)

But GOD FORBID a few congressmen and women go see a show, donate to charity and work with their Puerto Rican donors for a couple of days.
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:40 pm

2122M wrote:

What's worse: House Dems fundraising in Puerto Rico or the President raiding federal disaster relief funds that would be help Puerto Rico recover from past hurricanes and be better prepared for future storms?

The former has happened. The latter hasn't.

And to be accurate, the trip was put on by big business lobbyists. They obviously expect a return on their investment.
 
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:45 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
2122M wrote:

What's worse: House Dems fundraising in Puerto Rico or the President raiding federal disaster relief funds that would be help Puerto Rico recover from past hurricanes and be better prepared for future storms?

The former has happened. The latter hasn't.

And to be accurate, the trip was put on by big business lobbyists. They obviously expect a return on their investment.

As opposed to the racists that supported the GOP and Trump, and the farmers that had their big meeting that Trump attended today ? That wasn't a fundraiser?

I find it amazing how that lying racist finds time to go on a racist rant against Senator Warren, Call out these Congressman for going to Puerto Rico where they need emergency funding for a REAL crisis, and yet has no time to call out Steve King for his racist sentiments.
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VTKillarney
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:49 pm

casinterest wrote:
and the farmers that had their big meeting that Trump attended today ? That wasn't a fundraiser?

I'm more comfortable with Trump meeting farmers than I am with Democrats being wined and dined by some of the biggest business interests out there. Your mileage may vary.
 
2122M
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:56 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
casinterest wrote:
and the farmers that had their big meeting that Trump attended today ? That wasn't a fundraiser?

I'm more comfortable with Trump meeting farmers than I am with Democrats being winded and dined by some of the biggest business interests out there. Your mileage may vary.


Its hilarious that you don't think farmers are also some of the biggest business interests out there. And who are farmers more important than? Who exactly did the dems meet with in PR that are so much less important?
Last edited by 2122M on Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:58 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
casinterest wrote:
and the farmers that had their big meeting that Trump attended today ? That wasn't a fundraiser?

I'm more comfortable with Trump meeting farmers than I am with Democrats being winded and dined by some of the biggest business interests out there. Your mileage may vary.

Really? Is it business or something else that bothers you?

The AFBF has a lot of corporate sponsors and lobbyists on their list of speakers, and more republicans will be appearing.
Will you have outrage, or will you sit by and continue to cherry pick like Trump?



https://www.fb.org/events/afbf-annual-convention/
https://www.fb.org/events/afbf-annual-c ... workshops/
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winginit
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:02 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
casinterest wrote:
and the farmers that had their big meeting that Trump attended today ? That wasn't a fundraiser?

I'm more comfortable with Trump meeting farmers than I am with Democrats being wined and dined by some of the biggest business interests out there. Your mileage may vary.


Probably best that he does meet with farmers to be honest. Going to need to have a clear message to explain why he:

- Tanked the soy bean export market by starting the trade war with China
- Had to use taxpayer dollars to subsidize those farmers who have been financially impacted by the aforementioned trade war
- Isn't re-opening the Department of Agriculture even though it has nothing to do with the border wall so that the aforementioned subsidies and other already existing farm subsidies can be provided
- Isn't re-opening the Department of Agriculture to provide farmers with information that allows them to plan ahead, like suggestions for the quantity of crops they should plant
 
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:23 pm

Delta is losing at least 25 million in Revenue due to this shutdown. These trips will not be rebooked.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/delta-c ... month.html
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:03 pm

ATC union is starting to sound the alarm.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/42537 ... re-wont-be
"“If this thing were to drag on for two months, three months, maybe even six; what would the effects be for the American public?” Hill.TV’s Saagar Enjeti asked Eddie Delisle, a regional vice president of NATCA Northwest Mountain region.

“There won’t be controllers left,” Delisle said.

“I, for one, could not sustain six months, a year without a paycheck — I don’t know too many people that could, so you’re looking at an air controller here that would resign,” he continued."
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:13 pm

Mitch McConnell once again torpedoes a vote. on the house bill.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/425 ... econd-time

"The solution to this is a negotiation between the one person in the country who can sign something into law, the president of the United States, and our Democratic colleagues," McConnell said Tuesday.


McConnell once again assumes the irrational racist, lying , dishonorable coward that is in the white house has any intentions of being rational.

McConnell may go down in history as one of the worst American senators.
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dragon-wings
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:49 am

A republican Montana state senator and republican delegates from West Virginia want to divert state funds to help build Trump's wall. Montana would send $8 million and West Virginia would send $10 million from their state's surplus. I don't live in either state, but I would be really mad if they did send the states surplus to help build the wall. West Virginia actually thinks the wall will help with the states drug problem!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... spartanntp
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Flighty
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:39 am

My coworker predicts 2 weeks to a solution. My prediction? 10 weeks.

Open borders vs closed borders issue (the wall is symbolic of taking a concrete step to enforce the border, establishing a new precedent to enforce the laws), this debate has been raging for 35 years. There is NO sign that the sides of fundamentally open border versus fundamentally controlled border are coming closer to an agreement.

Agreement will have funding for a physical border security construction and granting dreamers a path to citizenship. If no physical barrier can be constructed, then elites will need to cancel their travel plans for the rest of the year. The airlines may liquidate. The TSA will have to stand down in about March. Sht will hit the fan.

TSA standing down will be the crisis that motivates a solution. They will give a warning next week, then in Feb they will wobble operationally. Then on March 1, flying will stop (if this is not solved). It will stay stopped and there will be real outrage on both sides.

Regular people have had their family lives disrupted for many years by this issue. The shutdown only means that elite families and journalists are starting to think about the same issues that face average families all the time. Job loss, wage reduction, the need to get creative.
 
ltbewr
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:56 am

I am afraid that this standoff will hurt the Democrats in the long run, including in 2020, as they will be seen as obstructionist and supporting illegal immigration. They will lose even more White voters permanently, especially in the suburbs.
The Congress taking 10 days away from DC from this Friday until the day before the State of the Union speech on Tues., 1/29 is stupid beyond belief. They all need to stay to work on possible solutions or before Pres. Trump goes totally radical, abuses his powers and at the SOTU, calls for a national emergency and shifts money for his cursed wall.
I am also afraid we may see violence rise up against our politicians as the shutdown means more 1000's continue to not have paychecks, go into economic panic and someone going violent on their Congress member or Senator.
Right now we are in a situation that is unacceptable and likely to a trigger for a major economic crash. Both sides have to be more concerned with our country than our political divisions. If the Democrats have to take the hit and give in to Pres. Trump, so be it, as Trump has veto power and continuing the stalemate will make him look stronger too.
 
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:31 pm

ltbewr, I agree that this has the potential to get pretty crazy. A 2 week shutdown is pretty normal. It's a pay hiccup (now 5 days late). Sometimes contractors lose out. Been there myself and it happens.

But a 2-3 month shutdown is different and I believe that is where we are headed. This is an issue on which politicians have failed to hammer out an agreement for 30 years. The entrenched positions do not surprise me. I expect a long shutdown. Trump does too, and has said so.
 
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:34 pm

The problem for the Democrats is that they want the American public to believe that they are for secure borders, but their only coherent plan is saying, "no", to strategically placed segments of a wall.

This became abundantly clear when the leftist rock star, Beto (Robert Francis) O'Rourke was recently interviewed. While expressing his deep hatred for a wall, he gave the standard party answer that we should be focusing on visa overstays instead. He was then asked a simple question: What should be implemented vis-à-vis visa overstays? His answer was truly shocking: "I don't know."

He was telling the truth. He doesn't know because his party doesn't know. The Democrats want people to believe that they are for a secure border, but they don't want small pieces of a wall, they want to de-fund ICE, and so on. If you are going to say that you are for something, the least you can do is have a plan. The Democrats have had plenty of time to come up with one. If they had, I think that they would have a real upper hand here. But so far all they have is objections rather than solutions.
 
2122M
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:46 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
The problem for the Democrats is that they want the American public to believe that they are for secure borders, but their only coherent plan is saying, "no", to strategically placed segments of a wall.

This became abundantly clear when the leftist rock star, Beto (Robert Francis) O'Rourke was recently interviewed. While expressing his deep hatred for a wall, he gave the standard party answer that we should be focusing on visa overstays instead. He was then asked a simple question: What should be implemented vis-à-vis visa overstays? His answer was truly shocking: "I don't know."

He was telling the truth. He doesn't know because his party doesn't know. The Democrats want people to believe that they are for a secure border, but they don't want small pieces of a wall, they want to de-fund ICE, and so on. If you are going to say that you are for something, the least you can do is have a plan. The Democrats have had plenty of time to come up with one. If they had, I think that they would have a real upper hand here. But so far all they have is objections rather than solutions.


You continue to miss the point by a wide, wide margin. What the democrats are saying 'no' to is shutting the government down over a disagreement about a non-urgent budget disagreement. Trump didn't get his way, and so he put 800,000 people out of work. The dems giving in to that will simply normalize it and would be very bad news for all those federal workers who would officially become pawns to Trump whims. Think about it, every time the house disagrees with him, he's going to go back to his tried and true recipe of withholding pay from upwards of a million people.

Of course, you have already voiced your support for that outcome, so I'm not trying to change your mind, I just want to make sure you are clear on what the real debate here is.
 
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:04 pm

It's a lot easier to say, "no" to a shutdown when you are putting forth a plan of your own. Beto's "I don't know" admission is a stark reminder that the Democrats haven't offered one. That is all.

I don't think that I am saying anything shocking when I say that the Democrats will fare better if they can present an actual plan for securing our borders rather than just offering lip service to doing so.
 
2122M
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:24 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
It's a lot easier to say, "no" to a shutdown when you are putting forth a plan of your own. Beto's "I don't know" admission is a stark reminder that the Democrats haven't offered one. That is all.

I don't think that I am saying anything shocking when I say that the Democrats will fare better if they can present an actual plan for securing our borders rather than just offering lip service to doing so.


Well then Trump shouldn't have stormed out of the meeting with Peolsi and Schumer before hearing what they had to day. I suppose that's because we was not negotiating in good faith?

And once more, the wall =/= border security. This shutdown, from the presidents point of view, is 100% about the wall. If wants to sit down and hash out a deal over DACA or Visa overstays, I'm sure everyone would be happy to do so. But this thread is not about border security, its about the shutdown. It's too bad the president doesn't actually know how to be a president or how to work with anyone on the other side of the aisle. If he did, he wouldn't have to resort to these child-like tactics.

I would offer that the Democrats are very much protecting these federal workers by not allowing the president to use them as pawns. If they stay the course and show that a president cannot get his way by simply withholding pay from 800,000 people, it will deter future president from attempting the same thing.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:35 pm

casinterest wrote:
Mitch McConnell once again torpedoes a vote. on the house bill.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/425 ... econd-time

"The solution to this is a negotiation between the one person in the country who can sign something into law, the president of the United States, and our Democratic colleagues," McConnell said Tuesday.


McConnell once again assumes the irrational racist, lying , dishonorable coward that is in the white house has any intentions of being rational.

McConnell may go down in history as one of the worst American senators.
You don't need the president to sign something into law if 2/3 of the congress disagrees. The vote before Trump changed his mind was 87-12 in the senate.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:46 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
You don't need the president to sign something into law if 2/3 of the congress disagrees. The vote before Trump changed his mind was 87-12 in the senate.

You need 2/3rds in BOTH chambers.
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:47 pm

2122M wrote:
Well then Trump shouldn't have stormed out of the meeting with Peolsi and Schumer before hearing what they had to day. I suppose that's because we was not negotiating in good faith?

And once more, the wall =/= border security. This shutdown, from the presidents point of view, is 100% about the wall. If wants to sit down and hash out a deal over DACA or Visa overstays, I'm sure everyone would be happy to do so. But this thread is not about border security, its about the shutdown. It's too bad the president doesn't actually know how to be a president or how to work with anyone on the other side of the aisle. If he did, he wouldn't have to resort to these child-like tactics.

I would offer that the Democrats are very much protecting these federal workers by not allowing the president to use them as pawns. If they stay the course and show that a president cannot get his way by simply withholding pay from 800,000 people, it will deter future president from attempting the same thing.

I still haven't seen any sort of plan in what you have written. My point is merely that, if Democrats want to convince the American public that they genuinely believe in border security, they should be able to offer a plan. So far they haven't.
 
2122M
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:52 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
2122M wrote:
Well then Trump shouldn't have stormed out of the meeting with Peolsi and Schumer before hearing what they had to day. I suppose that's because we was not negotiating in good faith?

And once more, the wall =/= border security. This shutdown, from the presidents point of view, is 100% about the wall. If wants to sit down and hash out a deal over DACA or Visa overstays, I'm sure everyone would be happy to do so. But this thread is not about border security, its about the shutdown. It's too bad the president doesn't actually know how to be a president or how to work with anyone on the other side of the aisle. If he did, he wouldn't have to resort to these child-like tactics.

I would offer that the Democrats are very much protecting these federal workers by not allowing the president to use them as pawns. If they stay the course and show that a president cannot get his way by simply withholding pay from 800,000 people, it will deter future president from attempting the same thing.

I still haven't seen any sort of plan in what you have written. My point is merely that, if Democrats want to convince the American public that they genuinely believe in border security, they should be able to offer a plan. So far they haven't.


Great. Go start a thread about border security plans and you can moan about it there (If you do that, do some research on democratic immigration proposals, don't' base it off one sound bite). This particular discussion is about the shutdown. To Trump, the shutdown is about the wall, to Dems, the shutdown is about good governance and protecting federal workers. You've picked your side.
 
tommy1808
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:55 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
Trump has gone from wanting $20 billion to $5.6 billion. As we sit here today, the Democrats have from over $1 billion to zero.

Based on the numbers, it's pretty clear who is negotiating in good faith and who isn't.


Mr. "I don´t have a plan and want money without telling you what i will use it for" did not ever negotiate in good faith.

I guess McConnel could still put the vote on the floor that has the 1.3 Billion in it for the things that the DHS actually wants to do.........

The reason why border security is not improving as we speak is Trump. And Trump alone.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:57 pm

2122M wrote:
Great. Go start a thread about border security plans and you can moan about it there (If you do that, do some research on democratic immigration proposals, don't' base it off one sound bite). This particular discussion is about the shutdown. To Trump, the shutdown is about the wall, to Dems, the shutdown is about good governance and protecting federal workers. You've picked your side.

I am talking about the shutdown. In particular, I am saying that, in the battle of public opinion over the shutdown, the Democrats would further their cause if they could actually give a plan for border security to the American people. Whether or not you agree that it is effective, Trump's proposal for portions of a wall is part of an overall plan for border security. If the Democrats are going to object to the wall, they need to have a plan of their own - at least something more than Beto's "I don't know" plan.

Just think about those optics. An absolute rock star in the Democrat party, when asked a simple question about his plan to address the problem, said, "I don't know." Trump draws energy and resolve from these fumbles.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:19 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
You don't need the president to sign something into law if 2/3 of the congress disagrees. The vote before Trump changed his mind was 87-12 in the senate.

You need 2/3rds in BOTH chambers.
It was going to have no problem passing the house by a large margin before Trump opened his mouth. My question is does Trump keep the balls of Republicans in congress in a jar on a shelf in the oval office or in the residence?
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
2122M
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:32 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
the battle of public opinion over the shutdown,


The Dems are doing just fine in the battle of public opinion over the shutdown:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it ... -to-blame/


And Trumps approval ratings are taking a beating over it:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6179.html
 
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:47 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Mitch McConnell once again torpedoes a vote. on the house bill.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/425 ... econd-time

"The solution to this is a negotiation between the one person in the country who can sign something into law, the president of the United States, and our Democratic colleagues," McConnell said Tuesday.


McConnell once again assumes the irrational racist, lying , dishonorable coward that is in the white house has any intentions of being rational.

McConnell may go down in history as one of the worst American senators.
You don't need the president to sign something into law if 2/3 of the congress disagrees. The vote before Trump changed his mind was 87-12 in the senate.


Yep, and yet McConnell won't take the same bill back and resend it to the President.
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:57 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/governm ... omy-2019-1

"Standard & Poor's pointed out that the cost of the shutdown will soon outpace the Trump's $5 billion demand for a wall.

The White House even increased their own internal estimate of the GDP hit. A White House official confirmed to Business Insider that the Trump administration's own model estimated that the shutdown would shave off 0.13 percentage points from GDP for every week of the shutdown. This is higher than the 0.08 percentage points originally assumed.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the shutdown is a serious problem for the US economy and cited research that showed US GDP growth could go to zero if the shutdown continued."


Also,
this ask for more money brings up another issue. The debt ceiling. Are we in for yet another shutdown thanks to the Tax cuts and other expenditures outpacing income?
"The shutdown also exacerbates worried about the future, potentially more economically damaging, fights in Congress. The most pressing of which is the need to raise the debt ceiling in the coming months.

As it stands the debt ceiling, or the statutory limit on the amount of debt the federal government can hold, kicks back in on March 1. While the US Treasury can maintain funding through special measures, the ceiling will still need to be lifted by Congress sometime over the summer.

"
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:22 pm

casinterest wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-trump-democrats-standoff-damaging-us-economy-2019-1

"Standard & Poor's pointed out that the cost of the shutdown will soon outpace the Trump's $5 billion demand for a wall.

The White House even increased their own internal estimate of the GDP hit. A White House official confirmed to Business Insider that the Trump administration's own model estimated that the shutdown would shave off 0.13 percentage points from GDP for every week of the shutdown. This is higher than the 0.08 percentage points originally assumed.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the shutdown is a serious problem for the US economy and cited research that showed US GDP growth could go to zero if the shutdown continued."



I feel like this only helps the Republican narrative.
 
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:26 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-trump-democrats-standoff-damaging-us-economy-2019-1

"Standard & Poor's pointed out that the cost of the shutdown will soon outpace the Trump's $5 billion demand for a wall.

The White House even increased their own internal estimate of the GDP hit. A White House official confirmed to Business Insider that the Trump administration's own model estimated that the shutdown would shave off 0.13 percentage points from GDP for every week of the shutdown. This is higher than the 0.08 percentage points originally assumed.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the shutdown is a serious problem for the US economy and cited research that showed US GDP growth could go to zero if the shutdown continued."



I feel like this only helps the Republican narrative.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/vid ... ouse-video
‘I am proud to shut down the government’, Trump tells Schumer
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2122M
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:28 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-trump-democrats-standoff-damaging-us-economy-2019-1

"Standard & Poor's pointed out that the cost of the shutdown will soon outpace the Trump's $5 billion demand for a wall.

The White House even increased their own internal estimate of the GDP hit. A White House official confirmed to Business Insider that the Trump administration's own model estimated that the shutdown would shave off 0.13 percentage points from GDP for every week of the shutdown. This is higher than the 0.08 percentage points originally assumed.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the shutdown is a serious problem for the US economy and cited research that showed US GDP growth could go to zero if the shutdown continued."



I feel like this only helps the Republican narrative.


Its such a Rorschach test. It just confirms that the shutdown is bad, so if you already blame dems, this makes their faults worse. If you already blame Trump, it just makes his faults worse. Everyone obviously has different opinions, but the polls show the Trump and the GOP are losing that battle.
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:32 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I feel like this only helps the Republican narrative.

Especially in light of the Democrat narrative that the objection to the wall is primarily based on fiscal prudence.
 
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Aesma
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:32 pm

casinterest wrote:
The effects are continuing to mount while Trump gets waited on hand and foot in the White House.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/201 ... 539865002/

In Missouri, some rural transit providers that rely heavily on federal funding are starting to lay off part-time drivers and prioritize services. Visits to the doctor will take precedent over shopping trips, for example.


Shopping trips paid for by federal funds. Say it isn't so ? How socialist !
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:34 pm

Aesma wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The effects are continuing to mount while Trump gets waited on hand and foot in the White House.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/201 ... 539865002/

In Missouri, some rural transit providers that rely heavily on federal funding are starting to lay off part-time drivers and prioritize services. Visits to the doctor will take precedent over shopping trips, for example.


Shopping trips paid for by federal funds. Say it isn't so ? How socialist !


To be fair this is for the elderly and disabled.
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:35 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I feel like this only helps the Republican narrative.

Especially in light of the Democrat narrative that the objection to the wall is primarily based on fiscal prudence.


it is also based on the fact that it won't work, since 60% of the illegals come in through other means, and the drug dealers get drugs in through legal ports of entry.
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VTKillarney
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:37 pm

casinterest wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I feel like this only helps the Republican narrative.

Especially in light of the Democrat narrative that the objection to the wall is primarily based on fiscal prudence.


it is also based on the fact that it won't work, since 60% of the illegals come in through other means, and the drug dealers get drugs in through legal ports of entry.

It will work. It's just a question of how much it will work.

But let's assume that you are correct - that it will have 0% effectiveness. There is still less overall harm done constructing the wall than allowing the shutdown to continue. So even if the Democrats are correct about the wall, the proper course of action is to green light the wall in order to prevent the greater harm of the shutdown.

That is why this is clearly about ego and nothing more.

The longer the shutdown lasts the more game theory works in Trump's favor. In that regard he was smart in only asking for $5.6 billion.
 
wingman
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:42 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I feel like this only helps the Republican narrative.


Do you mean the narrative discussed by Fox News and supported by poll after poll showing that Republicans and Donald Trump are increasingly to blame for the shut down and its consequences? I wholeheartedly agree with you, for once!
 
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:55 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
casinterest wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
Especially in light of the Democrat narrative that the objection to the wall is primarily based on fiscal prudence.


it is also based on the fact that it won't work, since 60% of the illegals come in through other means, and the drug dealers get drugs in through legal ports of entry.

It will work. It's just a question of how much it will work.

But let's assume that you are correct - that it will have 0% effectiveness. There is still less overall harm done constructing the wall than allowing the shutdown to continue. So even if the Democrats are correct about the wall, the proper course of action is to green light the wall in order to prevent the greater harm of the shutdown.

That is why this is clearly about ego and nothing more.

The longer the shutdown lasts the more game theory works in Trump's favor. In that regard he was smart in only asking for $5.6 billion.

The problem with that logic is that the democrats have said they are willing to discuss once government is reopened. Trump is acting like my kids did when they were 3 in the candy store.

Remember Trump and McConnell own this shutdown. There was already an agreement by elected officials for 1.3-1.6 billion in additional funding.
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bgm
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:56 pm

For all the people blaming Democrats, please watch this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uSJsYq ... u.be&t=933

Watch it as many times as needed until the penny drops.
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winginit
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:16 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
The longer the shutdown lasts the more game theory works in Trump's favor. In that regard he was smart in only asking for $5.6 billion.


The fact that Lindsay Graham is calling for the short-term re-opening of the government without wall funding after saying that to buck Trump on the issue would be "the end of his presidency" combined with the fact that Trump's approval ratings are sinking states in my mind very clearly that a prolonged shutdown is working very much against Trump in all ways, game theory or otherwise.

Maybe stating very clearly to Chuck Schumer that he would "own the shutdown" over the border wall was, in retrospect, an incredibly stupid thing to do. Shocking I know.
 
tommy1808
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:24 pm

winginit wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
The longer the shutdown lasts the more game theory works in Trump's favor. In that regard he was smart in only asking for $5.6 billion.


The fact that Lindsay Graham is calling for the short-term re-opening of the government without wall funding after saying that to buck Trump on the issue would be "the end of his presidency" combined with the fact that Trump's approval ratings are sinking states in my mind very clearly that a prolonged shutdown is working very much against Trump in all ways, game theory or otherwise.

Maybe stating very clearly to Chuck Schumer that he would "own the shutdown" over the border wall was, in retrospect, an incredibly stupid thing to do. Shocking I know.


It's also funny how demanding 5.6 billion without a plan is smarter than demanding 20 billion without a plan.
If you at the same time block the money for barriers the DHS actually has a plan for from being used to build those, supposedly crucial, you are positively stupid.

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Tugger
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:19 pm

The idea that people are advocating: Stick a gun to peoples head and say "give me the money I want or I will force a situation that costs more money. " As a good and sensible negotiating strategy is a ludicrous position to take at best.

Honestly, how can you advocate that as a good position?

Tugg
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casinterest
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:24 pm

Tugger wrote:
The idea that people are advocating: Stick a gun to peoples head and say "give me the money I want or I will force a situation that costs more money. " As a good and sensible negotiating strategy is a ludicrous position to take at best.

Honestly, how can you advocate that as a good position?

Tugg


It's not, but Pelosi has just changed the game to "Two can play that game"


https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/ ... ss-1103047

Can't wait for the twitter rage from Trump on losing his State of the Union time.

Remember, it is the Speaker that invites the President.
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ltbewr
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:32 pm

Yes, House Speaker Pelosi has suspended the invitation to Pres. Trump to appear on Jan. 29th to give his SOTU speech, to either be rescheduled after the partial shutdown is over or do it in writing (as was done until about 100 years ago). Her reasoning is due to the extraordinary security necessary and with DHS and Secret Service workers not being paid so security may be compromised but also to send a message to the President. I am also quite sure no Democrat wants to be in the room with him now anyway.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white- ... ng-n959286
Of course, Pres. Trump will go on a Twitter storm, consider doing his SOTU speech from the Oval Office full of hate to 'illegal loving Democrats'. I wonder if in retaliation he will 'go nuclear' and declare a National Emergency to get monies for his 'wall' and other security demands.
If only Hillary Clinton won...
 
MSPNWA
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:02 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Yes, House Speaker Pelosi has suspended the invitation to Pres. Trump to appear on Jan. 29th to give his SOTU speech, to either be rescheduled after the partial shutdown is over or do it in writing (as was done until about 100 years ago). Her reasoning is due to the extraordinary security necessary and with DHS and Secret Service workers not being paid so security may be compromised but also to send a message to the President. I am also quite sure no Democrat wants to be in the room with him now anyway.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white- ... ng-n959286
Of course, Pres. Trump will go on a Twitter storm, consider doing his SOTU speech from the Oval Office full of hate to 'illegal loving Democrats'. I wonder if in retaliation he will 'go nuclear' and declare a National Emergency to get monies for his 'wall' and other security demands.
If only Hillary Clinton won...


Oh the hypocrisy of blaming it on security being potentially compromised. Don't need to worry about border security though! We're air tight!
 
2122M
Posts: 1111
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Re: The Shutdown Part 2 - reasons, effects and details

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:05 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Yes, House Speaker Pelosi has suspended the invitation to Pres. Trump to appear on Jan. 29th to give his SOTU speech, to either be rescheduled after the partial shutdown is over or do it in writing (as was done until about 100 years ago). Her reasoning is due to the extraordinary security necessary and with DHS and Secret Service workers not being paid so security may be compromised but also to send a message to the President. I am also quite sure no Democrat wants to be in the room with him now anyway.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white- ... ng-n959286
Of course, Pres. Trump will go on a Twitter storm, consider doing his SOTU speech from the Oval Office full of hate to 'illegal loving Democrats'. I wonder if in retaliation he will 'go nuclear' and declare a National Emergency to get monies for his 'wall' and other security demands.
If only Hillary Clinton won...


Oh the hypocrisy of blaming it on security being potentially compromised. Don't need to worry about border security though! We're air tight!


Do you actually, really think there is hypocrisy at play here? Oppose a pointless overpriced border wall and suddenly you're not allowed use the secret service?

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