A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:39 am

seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The EU should go for a hard-brexit and let you suffer


We British have had our backs to the wall before, and no doubt this will test our resolve once more, Keep calm and carry on.


https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=co ... &FORM=VIRE


Britain is always strongest when cornered. Just get it done.


Just for you, I'd be happy too
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:46 am

A101 wrote:
Hardly trying to spin it into anything, as I said I don't know the full details. You can take the article with a grain of salt or look what was written in it.

Just a small question, A101: How many languages do you speak? And do you ever read serious foreign newspapers?
Because if you're limited to just reading the English press, you're bound to be behind the breaking news curve on Brexit, let me tell you that
British journalists seem to talk only to British politicians who either don't have a clue, or are deliberately not releasing certain pieces of information to be able to control the newsflow and thus the events they have to work with, let me tell you that!

For one reason or another, the things which are in the news tomorrow in the UK on Brexit, are always out today in French, or German...
It could have something to do with the fact it's the EU which is clearly in the driver's seat, and the EU officials talking to their native press reporters off record, first.

If you want to read in English what they have to report, I suggest you start reading Bloomberg.. for one reason they seem to have access to these EU sources too:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

A101 wrote:
could they make a trade deal in that time frame, I doubt it


After more than 2 years, you still only just 'doubt' that the EU will not negotiate a trade deal with a member?
Seriously? Even David Davis is educated on that part of how the EU works, by now!
The EU can legally NOT negotiate with a memberstate over trade, as it represents that memberstate during trade negotiations, always, everywhere, and until the very moment it is no longer a memberstate, period.
So if the UK stays as a member state till the end of the Multi Annual Financial Framework (so till the beginning of 2021), trade negotiations can only start after that, which will still mean there will still be an need for a transion period, just like now really.
You may not be ready for that idea: I remember it took 3 months for brexiteers to accept the concept of a transition period the first time too.
Still remember all the BS about TM trying desperately to call it the 'implementation period' at first even to sugar coat the bitter pil that after the 2 year notification period, there would have to be another long period of status quo?
Well, it looks like after the 2 year notification period, there will be another period of almost 2 years of 'extended' notification, after which guess what: a lengthy transition period will have to follow, possibly to be called implementation period!

To illustrate the way in which the British press is being played to support a plan by raising expectations which are subsequently tuned down again, note how the report in The Sun -quoting British sources- tries to sell the idea of a 21 month extension by hinting at a trade DEAL being concluded during that 21 month period (and which could thus come online right after), whereas the other non-British sources (including Bloomberg which takes from those European sources), merely talk about coming up with a comperehensive PLAN for future trade ties, so very much like in a political declaration added to the WA, just like now and fully in line with the constitutional arrangements on how the EU works.
Guess which of the 2 versions will be the real one? ;)

;)
Last edited by sabenapilot on Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:04 am

A101 wrote:
Hardly trying to spin it into anything, as I said I don't know the full details. You can take the article with a grain of salt or look what was written in it.Could they make a trade deal in that time frame, I doubt it

The devil will be in the detail if the story is right, from EU leaders saying 'no, non, nein' to WA deal changes despite the UK push its a major concession by the EU.


What is the concession? 2 years extension while TM is pushing for a 2-month extension if the vote (postponed) doesn't go her way? The British will be bound by the EU treaties for another two years, no possibility to make any trade deals yet will make more commitments within the EU framework. And indeed, trade deals will take time, much time, unless Britain finally make a choice which will hold up in parliament.

On the other hand, within these two years, there probably will be another general election, might shake up British politics and I think with this two-year extension a Brexit will be actually less likely or at the least a Brino will be more likely.

Yeah, such a concession of the EU, the British finally got the EU to their knees :roll:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
bennett123
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:38 am

Keep calm and carry on doing what exactly?.
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:06 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The EU should go for a hard-brexit and let you suffer


We British have had our backs to the wall before, and no doubt this will test our resolve once more, Keep calm and carry on.


:roll: this is something you did to yourselves, no need to drag the world wars into this, that was an external doing.

The rest of the EU is suffering, because of a foolish emotional decision by the British electorate.


:checkmark:
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:51 am

This is a variation of the "vote the WA or there is no Brexit" scenario. Brexiteers must be apoplectic. It's not any kind of concession from the EU, rather an offer to increase the chance that remain will prevail.

As such I'm against it, I hope Brexit will really mean Brexit. I'm fine with BRINO, I just want the political influence of the UK on the EU to end.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:07 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
As a full member of the EU, there can be no trade negotiations between the UK and the EU over any future agreement


The UK will also be unable to negotiate and sign all those great trade deals that the rest of the World is so desperate for.

Aesma wrote:
As such I'm against it, I hope Brexit will really mean Brexit. I'm fine with BRINO, I just want the political influence of the UK on the EU to end.


I truly hope you'll be disappointed.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:36 pm

Aesma wrote:
As such I'm against it, I hope Brexit will really mean Brexit. I'm fine with BRINO, I just want the political influence of the UK on the EU to end.


That scenario would be the best for the EU, all the benefits, none of the hassle.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:15 pm

A101 wrote:

So in that sense, any referendum in the UK is technically advisory if the Scottish referendum voted leave it also should not have happened?

Again, you seem to unable to grasp the nettle as to what an advisory referendum actually is. You seem completely unable to see the result for what it was in the wider context of the advisory referendum, as you keep on focusing on this fictitious and arbitrary 50% "win" line, which doesn't exist now, nor has it ever existed.

If Scotland had voted "to leave the Union" with the statistically insignificant margin the UK EU referendum presented, I'd expect the Scottish parliament to have a plan and some idea what they want before triggering the process to leave. In the event they had triggered the process, I'd also expect the Scottish government to continue to act in the interests of Scotland should the resulting negotiation farce be clearly against the interests of and severely damaging to their country. Such actions would not make a mockery of their democracy, nor disrespect the result of the referendum, indeed it would be a mark of a properly functioning representative democracy.

I expect the UK's government to act in the same manner with regards to the EU referendum.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:37 pm

A101 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:

We British have had our backs to the wall before, and no doubt this will test our resolve once more, Keep calm and carry on.


https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=co ... &FORM=VIRE


Britain is always strongest when cornered. Just get it done.


Just for you, I'd be happy too


I really appreciate your position in the debate. It is not easy considering the Brexit opponents, but I do fully understand why you voted for Brexit, as I would feel the same if ask the same question.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:37 pm

The UK lost the case over its sovereignty over Chagos Islands (including the island of Diego Garcia) at the ICJ.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... os-islands
Because of Brexit, the EU27 plus a host of affiliated and allied countries and territories did not support the UK in the UN's General Assembly like they traditionally would have, which ment the case could be referred to the ICJ in 2017.
Taking back control, right?
Gibraltar may be next... ;)
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:06 pm

In shocking Brexit news, Jeremy Corbyn has got off the fence. Maybe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47363307
Labour has said it is prepared to back another EU referendum to prevent a "damaging Tory Brexit".

Jeremy Corbyn is to tell Labour MPs later that the party will move to back another vote if their own proposed Brexit deal is rejected on Wednesday.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:22 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
The UK lost the case over its sovereignty over Chagos Islands (including the island of Diego Garcia) at the ICJ.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... os-islands
Because of Brexit, the EU27 plus a host of affiliated and allied countries and territories did not support the UK in the UN's General Assembly like they traditionally would have, which ment the case could be referred to the ICJ in 2017.
Taking back control, right?
Gibraltar may be next... ;)


There is already a separate thread about this topic, please continue this discussion here:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1416485
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:54 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Hardly trying to spin it into anything, as I said I don't know the full details. You can take the article with a grain of salt or look what was written in it.Could they make a trade deal in that time frame, I doubt it

The devil will be in the detail if the story is right, from EU leaders saying 'no, non, nein' to WA deal changes despite the UK push its a major concession by the EU.


What is the concession? 2 years extension while TM is pushing for a 2-month extension if the vote (postponed) doesn't go her way? The British will be bound by the EU treaties for another two years, no possibility to make any trade deals yet will make more commitments within the EU framework. And indeed, trade deals will take time, much time, unless Britain finally make a choice which will hold up in parliament.

On the other hand, within these two years, there probably will be another general election, might shake up British politics and I think with this two-year extension a Brexit will be actually less likely or at the least a Brino will be more likely.

Yeah, such a concession of the EU, the British finally got the EU to their knees :roll:


Yes I'm aware of what being tied to the EU would entail in our dealings with third countries if the status Que remains , from my understanding from the proposal the EU now wants to try and ratify a trade deal before the UK withdraws from the EU, instead of the current process of having a withdrawal agreement then find an agreement, I'm not so naive to think this was not just a way around the backstop its designed to protect the interests of the EU first.

As I've said I'm not adverse to the prospect of staying in the EU pending how the extension is negotiated, but the result depends on how much the EU wants to cushion the separation, as I said the devil is in the detail and the full details haven't been released yet.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:06 pm

A101 wrote:
Yes I'm aware of what being tied to the EU would entail in our dealings with third countries if the status Que remains , from my understanding from the proposal the EU now wants to try and ratify a trade deal before the UK withdraws from the EU, instead of the current process of having a withdrawal agreement then find an agreement, I'm not so naive to think this was not just a way around the backstop its designed to protect the interests of the EU first.

As I've said I'm not adverse to the prospect of staying in the EU pending how the extension is negotiated, but the result depends on how much the EU wants to cushion the separation, as I said the devil is in the detail and the full details haven't been released yet.


As I understand it, it would mean an extension of two years and just that. Britain has, as it does now, have the ability to crash out the EU with a hard Brexit. All other things remain the same, 3 EU requirements will remain in place:
> breaking up price for current commitments (will be less with 2 years less commitments which will be paid in full in the two years of course)
> EU citizens status will remain the same as of now
> No hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland

So we will see the same difficulty as we have now, nothing will change unless British politics change.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:00 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Yes I'm aware of what being tied to the EU would entail in our dealings with third countries if the status Que remains , from my understanding from the proposal the EU now wants to try and ratify a trade deal before the UK withdraws from the EU, instead of the current process of having a withdrawal agreement then find an agreement, I'm not so naive to think this was not just a way around the backstop its designed to protect the interests of the EU first.

As I've said I'm not adverse to the prospect of staying in the EU pending how the extension is negotiated, but the result depends on how much the EU wants to cushion the separation, as I said the devil is in the detail and the full details haven't been released yet.


As I understand it, it would mean an extension of two years and just that. Britain has, as it does now, have the ability to crash out the EU with a hard Brexit. All other things remain the same, 3 EU requirements will remain in place:
> breaking up price for current commitments (will be less with 2 years less commitments which will be paid in full in the two years of course)
> EU citizens status will remain the same as of now
> No hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland

So we will see the same difficulty as we have now, nothing will change unless British politics change.



Well if that’s the case it’s better to just rip the Band-Aid off
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:30 pm

A101 wrote:

Yes I'm aware of what being tied to the EU would entail in our dealings with third countries if the status Que remains , from my understanding from the proposal the EU now wants to try and ratify a trade deal before the UK withdraws from the EU, instead of the current process of having a withdrawal agreement then find an agreement


I'm afraid your understanding isn't very good.
First UK needs to start make its mind about the model of exit and future relationship it could agree on. (please not at 52% majority, find some kind of consensus)
Then leave in due form, ratifying a withdrawal agreement.
Finaly, start transition period to fine tune the details on future relationship. Ratify it in reasonable timeframe.
Et voilà, simple !
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:41 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:

Yes I'm aware of what being tied to the EU would entail in our dealings with third countries if the status Que remains , from my understanding from the proposal the EU now wants to try and ratify a trade deal before the UK withdraws from the EU, instead of the current process of having a withdrawal agreement then find an agreement


I'm afraid your understanding isn't very good.

As is often the way of the average brexiteer.


First UK needs to start make its mind about the model of exit and future relationship it could agree on. (please not at 52% majority, find some kind of consensus)
Then leave in due form, ratifying a withdrawal agreement.
Finaly, start transition period to fine tune the details on future relationship. Ratify it in reasonable timeframe.
Et voilà, simple !

Should have been, exactly that.
Unfortunately Parliament inexplicably kowtowed to a vocal minority sniping safely from the wings and put it all into motion without any idea of how it worked or what "we" wanted or indeed what was available,
Where are all the "leave" leaders today? All in hiding, absolutely none of them having any idea of how to deliver their promised unicorns (and several prominent "leavers" protecting their 'assets' by moving them to ...........Europe!)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:53 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Finaly, start transition period to fine tune the details on future relationship. Ratify it in reasonable timeframe.


And prepare for the life after Brexit, all kinds of institutions needs to be resurrected, although this depends on the sort of Brexit it is going to be.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:55 pm

A101 wrote:
Well if that’s the case it’s better to just rip the Band-Aid off


Do you have any indication that the EU has softened its position on these things? They have held these positions for the last 2,5years.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:17 pm

We might know more by tomorrow:

'Theresa May to Consider Delay to Brexit Date'
Under the premier’s plan this week:

May will chair a Cabinet discussion on extending Brexit at 9:30 a.m. in London on Tuesday
May will update Parliament on the Cabinet’s decision after 12:30 p.m. on Tuesday
The government will propose motion on the Brexit state-of-play by Tuesday night
The House of Commons will debate and vote on May’s Brexit motion on Wednesday

If she does back a delay, May’s pro-Brexit colleagues will accuse her of betrayal and could even support a vote of no confidence in the government -- potentially triggering a general election.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rexit-date

Could be a fun day. :)
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:20 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:

I'm afraid your understanding isn't very good.
First UK needs to start make its mind about the model of exit and future relationship it could agree on. (please not at 52% majority, find some kind of consensus)
Then leave in due form, ratifying a withdrawal agreement.
Finaly, start transition period to fine tune the details on future relationship. Ratify it in reasonable timeframe.
Et voilà, simple !


I don’t have a trouble with understanding the process, it’s just the process was blown up by government who had no plan if the vote was to leave
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:32 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Well if that’s the case it’s better to just rip the Band-Aid off


Do you have any indication that the EU has softened its position on these things? They have held these positions for the last 2,5years.



Yep, you said it you’re self, the EU will have economic repercussions with a hard exist, the position from the EU sinceTM defeat has been one of Immovable stance, an olive branch went out. That’s a move from the EU position.if it’s just to keep the status que, then theirs no point in an extension
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:37 pm

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

I'm afraid your understanding isn't very good.
First UK needs to start make its mind about the model of exit and future relationship it could agree on. (please not at 52% majority, find some kind of consensus)
Then leave in due form, ratifying a withdrawal agreement.
Finaly, start transition period to fine tune the details on future relationship. Ratify it in reasonable timeframe.
Et voilà, simple !


I don’t have a trouble with understanding the process, it’s just the process was blown up by government who had no plan if the vote was to leave


Well, you still assume that somehow the EU and the UK can negotiate a trade deal while the UK remains a member of the EU.
That is a clear demonstration of a total lack of elementary understanding of how the EU works.
No matter how many times suggestions about this are printed in the British press on the basis of (deliberately wrong or at least falsely suggesting) comments by British politicians, it is NOT legally possible for the EU to do so and as you should have noticed by now, the EU is a very strict rule based organistation with a written 'modus operandi'.
Maybe it's because you're from a country without a written constitution that you think that under massive pressure, it can somehow magically be decided to do what hasn't been done before and thus set a new constitutional precedent, but the EU (like almost every other rules based country or organization) can not do what is uniquely possible in the UK, even if it wanted to. It's exactly this lack of understanding on the British side which has lead to this dead end, because TM has on numerous occasions demanded literally the impossible from the EU because of her self imposed red lines.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:54 pm

This is not the UK saying, it’s the EU


EU officials said postponing the exit would allow time to get back around the negotiating table to thrash out a far more comprehensive plan for future trade ties. The idea has been floated with the British side, the officials said.

While the 21-month plan is gaining support in the EU – including with senior officials in the European Commission and in the European Council chaired by EU President Donald Tusk, it is by no means certain. Several countries want only a short extension while others are reluctant to grant one at all without a firm U.K. plan to break the deadlock, officials said.


Last edited by A101 on Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:00 pm

A3801000 wrote:
If she does back a delay, May’s pro-Brexit colleagues will accuse her of betrayal and could even support a vote of no confidence in the government -- potentially triggering a general election.


It's extremely unlikely that MPs of a party in power would vote against it in a no confidence vote.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
If she does back a delay, May’s pro-Brexit colleagues will accuse her of betrayal and could even support a vote of no confidence in the government -- potentially triggering a general election.


It's extremely unlikely that MPs of a party in power would vote against it in a no confidence vote.



Agree, but nothing would surprise me anymore in this lot in power
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:50 am

A101 wrote:
This is not the UK saying, it’s the EU


EU officials said postponing the exit would allow time to get back around the negotiating table to thrash out a far more comprehensive plan for future trade ties. The idea has been floated with the British side, the officials said.

While the 21-month plan is gaining support in the EU – including with senior officials in the European Commission and in the European Council chaired by EU President Donald Tusk, it is by no means certain. Several countries want only a short extension while others are reluctant to grant one at all without a firm U.K. plan to break the deadlock, officials said.




Again, that is not meant to be read as "a UK-EU trade negotiation leading to a pre-Brexit FTA" like you conclude from it, but rather just as "an internal British process in which the UK firmly decides for itself what it truely wants, after which this can be talked through with the EU and put in both British law as well as in a political declaration with the EU", exactly as it was originally also the idea up until now, BTW, hence it's exactly the way of working and structure of the withdrawal process as you have seen it being used up until now.

The problem is however the UK is so unsure about what it really wants that this current political declaration is pretty thin on practical substance and thus a backstop in the WA is absolutely needed, also because the UK hasn't made any satisfying steps to further legislate for a certain type of Brexit domestically either.

The hopes are that after a reset of the notification period, the UK will use its time more wisely for internal reflection and come up with a realistic view of what it wants as well as what is legally possible so a more concrete political declaration can be drafted and who knows, even the backstop removed indeed (e.g. because the UK has meanwhile lawfully joined the EU's CU in its own right); but the FTA which you assume is automatically following up on that will still have to be negotiated and signed AFTER the UK will have left the EU, and so a transition period is still going to be needed for the UK's economy ico divergence, just as it now does: only a process in which the UK has legally joined a CU and guaranteed sufficient and permanent SM alignment prior to its departure from the EU's political structures can make the need for this subsequent transition period void.

But don't worry, you've been through all of this before, don't you?
Still remember how Brexiteers ignored the need for a transition period at first too, claiming that's what the 2 year notification period is for?
And then agreed to maybe a short one, in order just to 'implement' a new FTA which would be negotiated during that notification period...
One which would be ready to be signed the minute after the UK would have left of course....
But then the FTA disappeared from immediate view and a 2 and soon after even a 3 year long transition period became the norm -with some Brexiteers (!) now even talking about a 5 year period- all while the UK's government is now ready to formally ask for an extension of the UK's EU membership even, so before any transition period can even start.

I'm sure this time round, you'll hear them say exactly the same reassuring things at first once again, going through the exact same steps as above, because indeed currently they are selling -and you're clearly buying- the idea this extended membership could somehow replace the transition phase and thus implicitly that the FTA with the EU will thus be ready to be signed the minute the UK is out. ROTFL.
Come on, A101: surely you have learnt better by now, don't you?
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:01 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Well if that’s the case it’s better to just rip the Band-Aid off


Do you have any indication that the EU has softened its position on these things? They have held these positions for the last 2,5years.



Yep, you said it you’re self, the EU will have economic repercussions with a hard exist, the position from the EU sinceTM defeat has been one of Immovable stance, an olive branch went out. That’s a move from the EU position.if it’s just to keep the status que, then theirs no point in an extension


You forget that the EU has no option but to remain firm on its position. Any favorable treatment for the EU will probably result in discussion with the other third countries in the world and weaken its position towards them. The other third countries will argue that any special treatment of the UK should result in a special treatment for them. Therefore, the economic repercussions of a hard Brexit are mild compared to the damage a special treatment of the UK could have.

As for the extension, it's still not 100% guaranteed the UK can get it. There are a few EU countries who are against it (AFAIK Malta is one of them). Thus if one votes against it, there will be no extension at all.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:28 am

LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
As for the extension, it's still not 100% guaranteed the UK can get it. There are a few EU countries who are against it (AFAIK Malta is one of them). Thus if one votes against it, there will be no extension at all.


There has been talk that there will only be extension for a valid reason, e.g. time to implement the necessary legislation after the Withdrawal Agreement being ratified by Parliament.

The EU do not want to extend Article 50 to continue the status quo, as we will just end up in the same place just a bit later, having had more weeks or months of turmoil.

This would be valid reason to extend Article 50 I'm sure:

https://news.sky.com/story/labours-sir- ... n-11648505
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:50 am

A101 wrote:
This is not the UK saying, it’s the EU


EU officials said postponing the exit would allow time to get back around the negotiating table to thrash out a far more comprehensive plan for future trade ties. The idea has been floated with the British side, the officials said.

While the 21-month plan is gaining support in the EU – including with senior officials in the European Commission and in the European Council chaired by EU President Donald Tusk, it is by no means certain. Several countries want only a short extension while others are reluctant to grant one at all without a firm U.K. plan to break the deadlock, officials said.




Therefore you DO have problem understanding the process. The keyword on your own quote is : more comprehensive PLAN for future trade ties.
Maybe sabenapilot last post is a bit long, just focus on this part then :

sabenapilot wrote:
Again, that is not meant to be read as "a UK-EU trade negotiation leading to a pre-Brexit FTA" like you conclude from it, but rather just as "an internal British process in which the UK firmly decides for itself what it truely wants, after which this can be talked through with the EU and put in both British law as well as in a political declaration with the EU"


Basically what I tried to summarize with : "First UK needs to start make up its mind about the model of exit and future relationship it could agree on. (please not at 52% majority, find some kind of consensus)"
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:03 am

scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
If she does back a delay, May’s pro-Brexit colleagues will accuse her of betrayal and could even support a vote of no confidence in the government -- potentially triggering a general election.


It's extremely unlikely that MPs of a party in power would vote against it in a no confidence vote.


I think you underestimate the ERG. Per my understanding, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes provision for two votes of No Confidence before Parliament is dissolved. If the Government loses the first, it has two weeks to gather the requisite support to win a second. After losing the second, it's game over. I could definitely imagine the ERG voting against the government in Round 1 in order not only to make their point clear, but snarl up Parliamentary Business for a full two weeks. Whether they'd go so far as to actually topple the government is another matter, but I wouldn't bet against them.
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LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:25 am

Richard28 wrote:
This would be valid reason to extend Article 50 I'm sure:

https://news.sky.com/story/labours-sir- ... n-11648505


Sir Keir isn't realistic either. Any second referendum should contain the "no deal" option. AFAIK it will be the government which has to organise a second referendum and thus they control the content. Which brings to probably another reason why a second referendum is not a good idea. If you can't decide on what you want, how can you organise a referendum giving the public options to choose from?
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:35 pm

LJ wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
This would be valid reason to extend Article 50 I'm sure:

https://news.sky.com/story/labours-sir- ... n-11648505


Sir Keir isn't realistic either. Any second referendum should contain the "no deal" option. AFAIK it will be the government which has to organise a second referendum and thus they control the content. Which brings to probably another reason why a second referendum is not a good idea. If you can't decide on what you want, how can you organise a referendum giving the public options to choose from?


It looks likely (to be announced this afternoon) that if Theresa Mays WA is not ratified, then Parliament will get the opportunity to rule out "No Deal" (very likely to pass) and also to request an extension on Article 50... which would inevitably lead to a further referendum.

On that basis the only things it could logically ask would be TM's Deal or No Brexit. Parliament does not want a No Deal Brexit.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:39 pm

LJ wrote:
Sir Keir isn't realistic either. Any second referendum should contain the "no deal" option.


Why?

Nobody, except Brextremists, wants 'no deal'. Strong rumours that May will be forced to take that option off the table, or have Parliament vote to remove it as an option. At that point, the only two options are the negotiated WA (which Parliament will likely vote down again) or revoke A50.

That of course assumes no extension to A50, which IMHO is becoming more likely, but is simply kicking the can down the road (something which politicians of all hues resort to when the going gets tough).

From the BBC just now...

May to make three 'further commitments'
BBC political editor tweets...

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak
Understand PM will make 3 ‘further commitments’ today - meaningful vote by Mar 12th , if that falls vote on 13th on whether Commons would support leaving with no deal , third, if MPs reject no deal, there will be vote on extending


So what happens if MPs vote against extending A50?
No to negotiated WA
No to no-deal
No to extending A50

What's left? :spin:
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A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:44 pm

Theresa May now talking live in UK parliament: “I believe that if we have to, we will ultimately make a success of a no-deal”
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:48 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Theresa May now talking live in UK parliament: “I believe that if we have to, we will ultimately make a success of a no-deal”



(in 50 years time....maybe)

Loose - loose, make a choice for the level of un-comfort you would like to be in. Just a bit, or perhaps massive.
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A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:00 pm

Image

I bet they will all be voted down. :spin:
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:23 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Image

I bet they will all be voted down. :spin:


1 (WA agreement) this will depend on ERG support - they either accept the WA (and backstop) with some flowery side wording... or perhaps accept it as this is the only Brexit they will ever get.

2) (No Deal) Parliament will not agree to No Deal, nor should they.

3) Extension will be necessary to have a further referendum, I would suggest Parliament would accept this. Of course the EU would only accept under suitable circumstances.

if all above fail, only available route is revocation of Article 50.

ERG must surely know this... the ball is in their court here... its Theresa's deal or No Brexit.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:52 pm

A3801000 wrote:
I bet they will all be voted down. :spin:


As I suggested above. Parliament is as divided as the country, getting agreement will be next to impossible.

Richard28 wrote:
if all above fail, only available route is revocation of Article 50.


Indeed, May used the R-word for, I believe, the first time:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-poli ... s-47361207
If MPs don't want to leave without a deal, then either Article 50 should be revoked or a deal must be agreed, she finishes.


That will have sent a collective shudder down the spines of the ERG. :lol:

I feel they're too stubborn to do a u-turn and vote for the WA

I'm sure this is just a ploy by May, and I doubt she personally will call for the revocation, but it could easily end up with a Parliamentary vote on revoking A50. If that did happen, she can shrug her shoulders and say "I tried everything, but Parliament wouldn't support any of the Brexit options."
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:26 pm

Short limited extension to do what ?
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:26 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
If she does back a delay, May’s pro-Brexit colleagues will accuse her of betrayal and could even support a vote of no confidence in the government -- potentially triggering a general election.


It's extremely unlikely that MPs of a party in power would vote against it in a no confidence vote.


I think you underestimate the ERG. Per my understanding, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes provision for two votes of No Confidence before Parliament is dissolved. If the Government loses the first, it has two weeks to gather the requisite support to win a second. After losing the second, it's game over. I could definitely imagine the ERG voting against the government in Round 1 in order not only to make their point clear, but snarl up Parliamentary Business for a full two weeks. Whether they'd go so far as to actually topple the government is another matter, but I wouldn't bet against them.


So to send May packing you need two votes, but to leave the EU, only one ?
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A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:38 pm

I've watched this discussion for over one hour. Most british MP are still deep in La-la-unicorn-wonderland, it is incredible. They still talk about 'alternative arrangements', they still think they can push the EU into accepting terms the EU has long ruled out (like the EU is really going to be hurt most when the UK leaves) and they still take party over country. There is hardly any realism and certainly no urgency. And anything they discuss to do is without any consideration if this might be acceptable to the EU or not.
Sorry to all british friends and forum members, but I think you will either leave without a deal or not leave at all.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:40 pm

Aesma wrote:
Short limited extension to do what ?


exactly.

It wont be for more negotiation - we all know that stopped in 2018 and will not be re-opened.

so that leaves two viable options:
- It could be for a new general election... but quite what manifesto parties would stand, heaven knows (and then what follows would need even more time)
- It could be for a ratification referendum
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:50 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Sorry to all british friends and forum members, but I think you will either leave without a deal or not leave at all.


Remember there has already been a symbolic vote against "No Deal" in Parliament which was won - and that was without cabinet minister resignations and the Tory "silent majority" which have thus far stayed loyal to TM but oppose the ERG.

Once the WA is defeated through the Meaningful vote - that is when you need to pay attention - as it seems the vast majority of MPs will then come down against No Deal.

It would take drastic actions on behalf of the ERG to now force a No Deal it would seem.... but I wouldn't put it past them to try.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:43 pm

Aesma wrote:
Short limited extension to do what ?


To work out WTF to do if, as is very likely, MPs vote down the negotiated WA, vote down no-deal and vote down requesting an extension to A50. :crazy:

Richard28 wrote:
so that leaves two viable options:
- It could be for a new general election... but quite what manifesto parties would stand, heaven knows (and then what follows would need even more time)
- It could be for a ratification referendum


I'm really struggling to see under what circumstances we end up with a GE and, more importantly, what it would actually achieve?
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:50 pm

scbriml wrote:
I'm really struggling to see under what circumstances we end up with a GE and, more importantly, what it would actually achieve?


The only thing it could achieve is to dissolve Parliament removing their ability to do anything whilst the clock finally ticks down to zero.... i.e. a No Deal Brexit.

No doubt this is a card ERG would like to play (they have said so much before)... and you would hope that under such circumstances Parliament would not fall for it......

(so much for "taking back control" in those circumstances...)
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:52 pm

Richard28 wrote:
if all above fail, only available route is revocation of Article 50.


Which will solve what? It's probably the least desirable outcome after two years. Half of the UK doesn't want to be in the EU and will moan, become angry or whatever. The remainder is satisfied, but the UK has lost its credibility and status in the EU. It can not return to normal after what happened the past two years. Legally it will, but how reliable is the UK after these events? Moreover, what will happen when May is gone? There's basically as much legitimacy in going for a "no deal" Brexit then there is for revocation of article 50.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:15 pm

LJ wrote:
Which will solve what? It's probably the least desirable outcome after two years. Half of the UK doesn't want to be in the EU and will moan, become angry or whatever. The remainder is satisfied, but the UK has lost its credibility and status in the EU. It can not return to normal after what happened the past two years. Legally it will, but how reliable is the UK after these events? Moreover, what will happen when May is gone? There's basically as much legitimacy in going for a "no deal" Brexit then there is for revocation of article 50.


I can't see any other choice.

If Parliament rejects the Withdrawal Agreement, rejects No Deal, rejects an Extension to Article 50 and rejects a ratification referendum then there is nowhere else to go but to remain.

Parliament would have tried all other routes but none were acceptable.

It would be a very brave government that at a later date would then decide to invoke Article 50 again, as this time it would need a thoroughly thought through, workable plan for Parliament and the public to accept it. Which as previous experience has taught us - is not achievable - so very likely that would be it.


Of course the loud shouty voices would remain and there would be some increased disdain for politicians in many quarters. In such circumstances a Brexit inquiry would no doubt take affect to learn about what went wrong and what can be learned going forward, perhaps as a start:

- more stringent controls to stop foreign influence, foreign money and dodgy analytics
- more bite for the electoral commission to clamp down on matters both during the campaign and after
- more education on what the EU is and how it functions on a democratic basis, particularly in the national curriculum and during European elections
- minimum thresholds for future referendums, especially where the consequences is a loss of rights and freedoms.
- referendum requirement for a white paper to be agreed upon and campaigned for during any subsequent vote (rather than the wishy washy vacuous conflicting promises from Leave side in 2016)

I'm sure there will be a lot more to learn....
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:22 pm

I wonder if come March 29th we will even know if Brexit has happened ? If nothing is voted, nothing is declared on either side, is the UK automatically out ?
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