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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:20 pm

Klaus wrote:
We've been explaining these simple facts to you several times already, and yet you keep spouting simply factually false nonsense about this!


Facts? Brexiteers prefer hollow and meaningless catchphrases so they can "take back control".
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:24 pm

Aesma wrote:
To be honest if the WA passes, I don't think there is a need for an extension, the situation is not supposed to really change during the transition period, let the UK claim "we're out" on the 29th or March without actually doing anything.

Without the proper legal process correctly completed in the UK there cannot be a transition period!

So yes, the short delay would be absolutely crucial!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:29 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Looks like the EU will only agree to a extension if there is another vote on the WA. Speaker of the House meanwhile told TM there can't be another vote on the WA. Unless there are substantial changes, but the EU made it clear there wont be any changes anymore. How is that going to work out?

Bercow objected to the specific measure proposed by the government; Theresa May can very well propose a different measure with different consequences around the very same WA and Bercow could consider those other changes to be substantial enough to accept it.
 
jcancel
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:34 am

And this is why shutting down ideologue twitter accounts and holding ideologues financially responsible for their actions.

People, you are not entitled to your own facts. You are not entitled to lie. You are not entitled to lie to people. You are not entitled to lie to people and make them into lemmings.

Also:

Lemmings are not entitled to private communication networks.
 
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moo
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:52 am

Theresa Mays rhetoric is getting a little ridiculous, she says its '"high time" politicians made a decision on the next steps'.

An excellent quote from her is this:

"So far Parliament has done everything possible to avoid making a choice," said Mrs May. "All MPs have been willing to say is what they do not want."


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47647515

You know what the problem with her saying that is?

Its simple really - its her government that get to table the motions that are voted on.

No other party in Parliament has enough seats to get a motion tabled - so the only things that are being voted on are those things that Mays own government, or amended versions. So lets see what Parliament *has* made a decision on:

1. The EU deal - voted down
2. The EU deal as amended - voted down
3. Whether to rule out a no-deal exit - amended to stronger, all encompassing wording and approved
4. Whether to request an extension from the EU - approved

Four decisions taken right there. So what haven't Parliament been allowed to vote on?

1. Revoking Article 50
2. A new referendum
3. Anything else

Its quite plain and clear that when May says "So far Parliament has done everything possible to avoid making a choice" what she really means is:

So far Parliament have not made the choice that I want them to make, and they can't make a choice with all the options on the table because I and my government will not table such a series of motions, so I will continue to berate Parliament in not making the choice I want them to make while insisting that the decisions they have made so far on the things that I *have* allowed them to vote on do not count. Vote for the deal, or I shall assume I don't know what you want. I won't actually table enough motions to find out what you want, I shall just assume it.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:15 am

sbworcs wrote:
I read somewhere that Parliament can vote on whether or not to over rule the speaker. If enough of the do so then MV3 / MV4 (5,6,7,8,9 etc...) could happen


Which will probably be voted down, like almost everything. The UK Parliament is good at telling what it doesn't want, but not on what it wants.

moo wrote:
Four decisions taken right there. So what haven't Parliament been allowed to vote on?

1. Revoking Article 50
2. A new referendum
3. Anything else


You have to agree that timing is essential in politics. The revocation vote will come if May is really frustrated. Such a vote only has merit when there is absolutely no other option. At present, it's still too early as I wouldn't expect such a vote before next Wednesday or Thursday. It will be the last vote before a no deal if she can table it in time. It's like in the corporate world. Never show your cards until you have to. I do think only revocation has a chance of of being put on the table. The second referendum is no option at this moment.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:19 am

LJ wrote:
You have to agree that timing is essential in politics.


I said so earlier in the thread. :yes:

LJ wrote:
The revocation vote will come if May is really frustrated. Such a vote only has merit when there is absolutely no other option. At present, it's still too early as I wouldn't expect such a vote before next Wednesday or Thursday.


My view as well. Things may crystalise earlier if the EU rejects the request for an extension for A50 later this week, or attaches a condition that won't fly (approve the negotiated WA).

LJ wrote:
The second referendum is no option at this moment.


That particular card was played way to early. Not sure if it can be played again now.

One thing is certain, there will be more twists before next Friday.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:21 am

scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
Looks like the EU will only agree to a extension if there is another vote on the WA. Speaker of the House meanwhile told TM there can't be another vote on the WA. Unless there are substantial changes, but the EU made it clear there wont be any changes anymore. How is that going to work out?


That's what Tusk is suggesting, but my understanding is that it's a decision for the EU27 leaders at their summit, not his directly.


That is my understanding to. And there seems to be different opinions among EU leaders about it, with some being very strict. Macron e.g. has stated he will not accept an extension unless May has a realistic plan for the period and there will be no extension just because the UK hasn't made up its mind yet. While Merkel on the other hand seems more open to an extension.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:06 am

Dutchy wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
She basically said that she has applied for an extension, and it's parliament's fault that Brexit is delayed. And she also ruled out a new referendum once again.

(And yes, very childish of Corbyn.)


At least she is honest than and blames the party which needs to be blamed and not to use the EU as a scapegoat again.


To be honest, May is trying to dodge her share of the responsibility here. Whilst Parliament has a lot to answer for, May is digging herself into a deeper hole by indicating she will put the WA deal to Parliament again despite being rejected twice already. The fact that she has not (yet) tabled a vote to revoke Article 50 or options on what red lines should be softened says it all really. A sensible leader would have realised after the first defeat in Parliament they're on a hiding to nothing trying to force through the same thing over and over again.

As for Corbyn, I also agree it was childish of him to walk off like that. What I find staggering is he will do that with an MP, yet in the past he's had no problem sharing the same room/a platform with more controversial figures. It's more proof he's not fit to become Prime Minster.

scbriml wrote:
LJ wrote:
The revocation vote will come if May is really frustrated. Such a vote only has merit when there is absolutely no other option. At present, it's still too early as I wouldn't expect such a vote before next Wednesday or Thursday.


My view as well. Things may crystalise earlier if the EU rejects the request for an extension for A50 later this week, or attaches a condition that won't fly (approve the negotiated WA).


I hope so too. Apart from Tusk's speech last night, there's been no formal response to the extension request and I feel that will ultimately shape the next steps. I suspect if May goes for no deal after all, it will be the end of her tenure as PM as it will go directly against what Parliament voted again last week, whereas a revocation is more likely to be judged kindly by both MP's and history.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:24 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
[To be honest, May is trying to dodge her share of the responsibility here. Whilst Parliament has a lot to answer for, May is digging herself into a deeper hole by indicating she will put the WA deal to Parliament again despite being rejected twice already. The fact that she has not (yet) tabled a vote to revoke Article 50 or options on what red lines should be softened says it all really. A sensible leader would have realised after the first defeat in Parliament they're on a hiding to nothing trying to force through the same thing over and over again.


The deal proposed is about the divorce, not about the new trade agreement. The red lines are about the new relationship. TM should be able to find some kind of consensus in Parliament if these elected officials are willing to move forward and leave party politics aside.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:45 am

Arion640 wrote:
I was honestly expecting to come onto this thread and see you all ripping into TM for blaming Parliament. Bravo :checkmark:


It is her fault (at least, she holds majority blame for the debacle post referendum).

No attempt to build consensus in house. No attempt to reach out to other parties except DUP. Imposition of redlines before negotiations even started.

Possibly the worst Prime Minister ever. A disgrace to the office.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 2915
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:10 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I was honestly expecting to come onto this thread and see you all ripping into TM for blaming Parliament. Bravo :checkmark:


It is her fault (at least, she holds majority blame for the debacle post referendum).

No attempt to build consensus in house. No attempt to reach out to other parties except DUP. Imposition of redlines before negotiations even started.

Possibly the worst Prime Minister ever. A disgrace to the office.


She's a typical product of her country and her party.
In the UK, politicians are not used to having to compromise between parties; the UK has a FPTP electoral system in which the winning party normally has a large majority in the House and so polital dealing happens INSIDE the party and between some often very different fractions of the same party, even though there might be fractions of other parties which may hold very similar opinions too on certain topics.have a reason to do so
It's just not done in the UK to seek a compromise across the aisle of the House with those parties, and TM has indeed not done so either: when she noticed how hard it would be to unite sufficient Tories behind her plan, she called an election to enlarge the pool of Tories to win votes from, but surprisingly she lost the elections and reduced the number of Tory MPs even, thus further eroding her chances to ever impose a Tory Brexit compromise on the nation (ie one with a huge focus on the ability for own FTAs, even if it means the British people will be screwed because of the relaxing of all sort of rules on consumer, health and labor protection), yet she carried on as if nothing had happened.
There IS a majority for a Brexit to be found in the House, but it won't be her version of it, and it will not win support of all Tories either: as long as she can't accept that, there's going to be no progress. She should stop blaming others for not just falling in line behind her as she clearly expects them to, she should better and urgently start moving in their direction so they see a good reason to do so!
Go for a permanent CU with the EU and the WA passes with a 150+ majority.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2068
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:33 am

Oh, and this:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Largest and fastest growing petition to parliament. Ever.
 
KLDC10
Posts: 1334
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:15 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:04 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Oh, and this:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Largest and fastest growing petition to parliament. Ever.


And also entirely irrelevant, since it isn't a referendum and anyone can sign it. I just went onto the website and searched for a random petition. The "safeguards" against manipulation are as follows:

1. A check-box asking signers to confirm that they are indeed UK Citizens.
2. A box asking for the provision of a UK postcode.

No. 1 is clearly no hurdle to anyone. On No.2, anyone can find a UK Postcode on the internet and enter it into the field provided, and plenty of non-citizens living in the UK (with no right to vote, or sign such a petition) can do exactly the same. It's not a watertight system by any stretch of the imagination.
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
737/738/739/744/748/752/763/772/789
A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/A346/A359
Q400/E170/E175/E190/CS300
 
KLDC10
Posts: 1334
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:15 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:06 am

KLDC10 wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Oh, and this:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Largest and fastest growing petition to parliament. Ever.


And also entirely irrelevant, since it isn't a referendum and anyone can sign it. I just went onto the website and searched for a random petition. The "safeguards" against manipulation are as follows:

1. A check-box asking signers to confirm that they are indeed UK Citizens.
2. A box asking for the provision of a UK postcode.

No. 1 is clearly no hurdle to anyone. On No.2, anyone can find a UK Postcode on the internet and enter it into the field provided, and plenty of non-citizens living in the UK (with no right to vote, or sign such a petition) can do exactly the same. It's not a watertight system by any stretch of the imagination.


Et, voila! Fake Signatures:
https://order-order.com/2019/03/21/fore ... signatures
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
737/738/739/744/748/752/763/772/789
A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/A346/A359
Q400/E170/E175/E190/CS300
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 8892
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:07 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I was honestly expecting to come onto this thread and see you all ripping into TM for blaming Parliament. Bravo :checkmark:


It is her fault (at least, she holds majority blame for the debacle post referendum).

No attempt to build consensus in house. No attempt to reach out to other parties except DUP. Imposition of redlines before negotiations even started.

Possibly the worst Prime Minister ever. A disgrace to the office.


She's a typical product of her country and her party.
In the UK, politicians are not used to having to compromise between parties; the UK has a FPTP electoral system in which the winning party normally has a large majority in the House and so polital dealing happens INSIDE the party and between some often very different fractions of the same party, even though there might be fractions of other parties which may hold very similar opinions too on certain topics.have a reason to do so
It's just not done in the UK to seek a compromise across the aisle of the House with those parties, and TM has indeed not done so either: when she noticed how hard it would be to unite sufficient Tories behind her plan, she called an election to enlarge the pool of Tories to win votes from, but surprisingly she lost the elections and reduced the number of Tory MPs even, thus further eroding her chances to ever impose a Tory Brexit compromise on the nation (ie one with a huge focus on the ability for own FTAs, even if it means the British people will be screwed because of the relaxing of all sort of rules on consumer, health and labor protection), yet she carried on as if nothing had happened.
There IS a majority for a Brexit to be found in the House, but it won't be her version of it, and it will not win support of all Tories either: as long as she can't accept that, there's going to be no progress. She should stop blaming others for not just falling in line behind her as she clearly expects them to, she should better and urgently start moving in their direction so they see a good reason to do so!
Go for a permanent CU with the EU and the WA passes with a 150+ majority.


Unless she and all MP will put country before party (and self-interest re-election), I can't see a solution to this. Perhaps Theresa May should leave with a 12-month delay of Brexit with the British seat in Parliament left empty.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:12 am

KLDC10 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Oh, and this:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Largest and fastest growing petition to parliament. Ever.


And also entirely irrelevant, since it isn't a referendum and anyone can sign it. I just went onto the website and searched for a random petition. The "safeguards" against manipulation are as follows:

1. A check-box asking signers to confirm that they are indeed UK Citizens.
2. A box asking for the provision of a UK postcode.

No. 1 is clearly no hurdle to anyone. On No.2, anyone can find a UK Postcode on the internet and enter it into the field provided, and plenty of non-citizens living in the UK (with no right to vote, or sign such a petition) can do exactly the same. It's not a watertight system by any stretch of the imagination.


Et, voila! Fake Signatures:
https://order-order.com/2019/03/21/fore ... signatures


So you are saying that the 740.000+ are fake? Or at least the majority? You only need 100.000 to be considered, so I would say it has been met by UK citizens, don't you think.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:21 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
To be honest, May is trying to dodge her share of the responsibility here. Whilst Parliament has a lot to answer for, May is digging herself into a deeper hole by indicating she will put the WA deal to Parliament again despite being rejected twice already.


No, she plays high stake poker with Brexiteers and those who want to Remain in the EU. She hasn't played all her cards yet as it's way too soon to call your opponents bluff.

Boeing74741R wrote:
The fact that she has not (yet) tabled a vote to revoke Article 50 or options on what red lines should be softened says it all really. A sensible leader would have realised after the first defeat in Parliament they're on a hiding to nothing trying to force through the same thing over and over again.


We don't know yet what she thinks or realizes.

Boeing74741R wrote:
scbriml wrote:
LJ wrote:
The revocation vote will come if May is really frustrated. Such a vote only has merit when there is absolutely no other option. At present, it's still too early as I wouldn't expect such a vote before next Wednesday or Thursday.


My view as well. Things may crystalise earlier if the EU rejects the request for an extension for A50 later this week, or attaches a condition that won't fly (approve the negotiated WA).


I hope so too. Apart from Tusk's speech last night, there's been no formal response to the extension request and I feel that will ultimately shape the next steps. I suspect if May goes for no deal after all, it will be the end of her tenure as PM as it will go directly against what Parliament voted again last week, whereas a revocation is more likely to be judged kindly by both MP's and history.


She'll go for nothing for which she can blame Parliament for. She can already say that she has done her part (by negotiating the best deal between the UK and EU), if Parliament rejects than they've to choose between revocation and no deal, whereby the vote will be on revocation as no deal is the default option.

BTW don't be too hard on May, the game she plays is just the game which is played multiple times in the corporate world. The only difference is that the stakes are much higher.
Last edited by LJ on Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:21 am

Does it matter? The vote has been cast and Brexit is to be delivered. And as the deal is not acceptable to the UK (for good reasons), the hard Brexit is the only choice. I hope this happens before the 29th and the drama ends.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:34 am

Dutchy wrote:
So you are saying that the 740.000+ are fake? Or at least the majority? You only need 100.000 to be considered, so I would say it has been met by UK citizens, don't you think.


No, I didn't say anything of the sort. I suggested that the integrity of the petition has been compromised and have presented evidence to support that suggestion.
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
737/738/739/744/748/752/763/772/789
A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/A346/A359
Q400/E170/E175/E190/CS300
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 652
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:38 am

seahawk wrote:
Does it matter? The vote has been cast and Brexit is to be delivered. And as the deal is not acceptable to the UK (for good reasons), the hard Brexit is the only choice. I hope this happens before the 29th and the drama ends.


Spot on.

The Remoaners are a deluded bunch.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:44 am

sabenapilot wrote:
There IS a majority for a Brexit to be found in the House, but it won't be her version of it, and it will not win support of all Tories either: as long as she can't accept that, there's going to be no progress. She should stop blaming others for not just falling in line behind her as she clearly expects them to, she should better and urgently start moving in their direction so they see a good reason to do so!


Yet, Parliament is as divided over what Brexit means as the government.

sabenapilot wrote:
Go for a permanent CU with the EU and the WA passes with a 150+ majority.


I'm not so sure. There is no guarantee that Labour would back her making it a risky thing. She can always put this forward next week. Maybe she can schedule the following votes:
1. her WA for the third time
2. CU
3. revocation of article 50

She could change the order by first voting on revocation and then on the CU, depending on what she (and/or her government) prefers. If extension is rejected (or granted unless a "major" development), announce these votes on Monday, schedule them next Wednesday and/or Thursday and you've an answer by Friday, just in time to do what you have to do. If extension is granted you wait till the extension is almost expired.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:03 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Does it matter? The vote has been cast and Brexit is to be delivered. And as the deal is not acceptable to the UK (for good reasons), the hard Brexit is the only choice. I hope this happens before the 29th and the drama ends.


Spot on.

The Remoaners are a deluded bunch.


Indeed: the drama is dead, long live the drama. Like I said before, a part of me just says let there be a hardest Brexit as possible and let the Brits take the hit, they wanted it (well the frontmen of Brexit all have made sure that they won't take a hit, but the normal Brits will). And I must say that part is growing with the minute..........
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:09 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So you are saying that the 740.000+ are fake? Or at least the majority? You only need 100.000 to be considered, so I would say it has been met by UK citizens, don't you think.


No, I didn't say anything of the sort. I suggested that the integrity of the petition has been compromised and have presented evidence to support that suggestion.


Ok, what is your point for doing so? What do you want to suggest.

815.000 and growing. Quite impressive I must say.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:14 pm

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Does it matter? The vote has been cast and Brexit is to be delivered. And as the deal is not acceptable to the UK (for good reasons), the hard Brexit is the only choice. I hope this happens before the 29th and the drama ends.


Spot on.

The Remoaners are a deluded bunch.


Indeed: the drama is dead, long live the drama. Like I said before, a part of me just says let there be a hardest Brexit as possible and let the Brits take the hit, they wanted it (well the frontmen of Brexit all have made sure that they won't take a hit, but the normal Brits will). And I must say that part is growing with the minute..........


It does not matter how it influences the British people, for me the question is how long do the remaining EU countries want to be directly bound to the political turmoil in the UK? Do you want EU wide elections that might become pointless if the UK decides to stay? Do you want to leave business in limbo for much longer, which just encourages them to move their business from the UK but also from the EU, as the EU can not offer incentives to move from the UK to the EU at the moment, something other countries can. (Singapore cough)
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:29 pm

On what basis would the EU agree to an extension?
The UK parliament voted down the current deal, usually when something is objectionable something has to change, continuing to do the same thing over and over expecting a different result is...... Either the deal has to change or the persons voting has to change, it actually made no sense to have a second vote on the same deal after the pounding it took on the first try, obviously the backstop is the key point.

Customs Union, is that equivalent to the backstop except for the entire UK ala the Norway option?
Extending leave for 60 days buys the EU what exactly?
Extending for 2 years buys the EU what? UK financial contribution, trade etc but no representation in Brussels, seems like a good option since the UK is leaving, the continued access is just to allow the UK to sort out what type of relationship they want with the EU, such an arrangement can be extended every 2 years.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Indeed: the drama is dead, long live the drama. Like I said before, a part of me just says let there be a hardest Brexit as possible and let the Brits take the hit, they wanted it (well the frontmen of Brexit all have made sure that they won't take a hit, but the normal Brits will). And I must say that part is growing with the minute..........


That view appears to be shared by Macron. Quite frankly I can sympathise with the EU view. I would be sick of dealing with dithering Theresa too and would have no appetite to prolong negotiations with a government and parliament which is totally incapable of doing anything apart from squabble and point the finger of blame at each other. I'm not sure if it was reported further up this thread, but opposition leaders were invited for cross-party talks yesterday evening ahead of the PM's speech. Upon his arrival, Jeremy Corbyn took issue with the presence of Chukka Umuna (a former member of the Labour Party, now the de facto leader of 'The Independent Group'), reportedly said "he's not a proper party leader" and walked out. There is little chance for consensus.

Dutchy wrote:
Ok, what is your point for doing so? What do you want to suggest.

815.000 and growing. Quite impressive I must say.


My point is that it cannot be taken as a representative view of British public sentiment. Much like a Facebook poll, it can be abused and manipulated and, per the evidence I provided, has been.
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
737/738/739/744/748/752/763/772/789
A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/A346/A359
Q400/E170/E175/E190/CS300
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:12 pm

The EP's Brexit coordinator, Mr. Verhofstadt, has made it clear that for the EP it is impossible to agree to TM's demanded extension till the end of June.
The latest cut-off date for the European Parliament must be March 23rd because of it being the date of the European elections: the fear is that if the UK is granted an exit date beyond election day but before the EP first convenes like TM would like to make maximum use of the extra time offered, it will still not participate in those elections but it could still revoke article 50 last minute, meaning the European elections would become void and the EU would be without a valid EP and no EC for many months!
The EU does not want to import the British national crisis obviously, hence the need for an early cut off of the UK.
The problem is that the UK will most certainly not be able to pass the full EU withdrawal act (and all associated legislation) by election day, meaning such a short extension is pretty much meaningless, so unless the UK wants to crash out in about a week, the only orderly alternative is participation in the European elections (combined with a longer extension), but for that offer to be made by the EU the UK will also have to agree to another future relationship first.
Running down the clock seems to have left the UK without much (favourable) options, does it?
It seems TM has understood this too, which could very well be at the basis of her frustration which erupted in public yesterday evening: she's starting to realise chances are fairly high she'll have to organise European elections in about 2 months time and she simply doesn't know how to explain that, on top of a rather humiliating demand for a long extension, that is!
Last edited by sabenapilot on Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:22 pm

Spain france and belgium says they will veto any extension if not uk can show what they will use the extension for an that uk goverment can show that they will get backing from that plan in parlament.

I consider that this means a no deal agreement is written on the wall.

If uk leaves and do not rdspect their 39 bn bill i consider it will take a long time until relationships get stabile enough in order to start negotistions an uk eu fta.

So it is brexit opportunity to show how uk will enter paradise.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:36 pm

Dutchy wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So you are saying that the 740.000+ are fake? Or at least the majority? You only need 100.000 to be considered, so I would say it has been met by UK citizens, don't you think.


No, I didn't say anything of the sort. I suggested that the integrity of the petition has been compromised and have presented evidence to support that suggestion.


Ok, what is your point for doing so? What do you want to suggest.

815.000 and growing. Quite impressive I must say.


Exactly - I know at least three people who in principle would sign but haven't yet or aren't sure whether to bother. To them I say - just the *FACT* that millions (it looks like) of people feel strongly enough to make their position known - as there is other other way to express their frustrated democratic will (think on that, Brexiteers) - should make media and politicians take consideration of their point of view and not just plough on fudging everything up under the guise of "the will of the people". It was only ever the will of *some* of the people, and now it is only the will of *a minority* of the people. The more who sign, the more obvious this becomes.

The lives and opinions of the rest of the people should not be ignored!

You can argue all you like about the accuracy of the numbers, but you can't deny that it *IS* a very large number.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:44 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
The EP's Brexit coordinator, Mr. Verhofstadt, has made it clear that for the EP it is impossible to agree to TM's demanded extension till the end of June.
The latest cut-off date for the European Parliament must be March 23rd because of it being the date of the European elections: the fear is that if the UK is granted an exit date beyond election day but before the EP first convenes like TM would like to make maximum use of the extra time offered, it will still not participate in those elections but it could still revoke article 50 last minute, meaning the European elections would become void and the EU would be without a valid EP and no EC for many months!
The EU does not want to import the British national crisis obviously, hence the need for an early cut off of the UK.
The problem is that the UK will most certainly not be able to pass the full EU withdrawal act (and all associated legislation) by election day, meaning such a short extension is pretty much meaningless, so unless the UK wants to crash out in about a week, the only orderly alternative is participation in the European elections (combined with a longer extension), but for that offer to be made by the EU the UK will also have to agree to another future relationship first.
Running down the clock seems to have left the UK without much (favourable) options, does it?
It seems TM has understood this too, which could very well be at the basis of her frustration which erupted in public yesterday evening: she's starting to realise chances are fairly high she'll have to organise European elections in about 2 months time and she simply doesn't know how to explain that, on top of a rather humiliating demand for a long extension, that is!


Perhaps the key lies that Brittain will accept the WA with the in it the option to return to the EU (a.k. defacto revoke article 50) in two years. Would be more or less the same as extending the article 50 for 2 years without the need to have EU elections.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:46 pm

A respected radio show presenter on Ireland's Newstalk radio channel made an interesting point today: the British PM has no issue about getting MPs to vote several times on various deals, but allow the people a second chance to vote? No, that would be undemocratic. Seems illogical.

As of now, March 21, it does seem that of all the options available, "no deal" is the most likely outcome - despite the wishes of MPs and, it would appear, all but the most hardline Brexiteers. What happens on the 30th if there is a no deal Brexit. Right now, it looks likely the PM will fail (albeit with a smaller majority) to get the WA through parliament and that being the case, the EU will refuse Britain an extension; so effectively, Britain's MPs will be presented with a choice - "May's deal" (as flawed as they may think it) or no deal, which they've already voted against. Since "no deal" means economic disaster for Britain, why would the EU give Britain an inch if it were to choose this road?
 
sbworcs
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:47 pm

One thing the confuses me:

How on earth can TM say to the EU she can get through an unchanged (as EU will not change) deal given that:

It has been defeated twice
No one likes it
Bercow will not allow it given there is no change
The best way forwards is upwards!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:05 pm

par13del wrote:
Customs Union, is that equivalent to the backstop except for the entire UK ala the Norway option?


Customs union for the whole UK is actually the backstop as demanded by the UK government.

The EU proposal for the backstop was originally just for NI, basically staying in the CU and single market.

So at the moment "backstop" is understood as all UK, but the EU would have no problem with going back to what was proposed initially (and many in NI would agree too, except for the DUP idiots).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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speedygonzales
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:19 pm

olle wrote:
Spain france and belgium says they will veto any extension if not uk can show what they will use the extension for an that uk goverment can show that they will get backing from that plan in parlament.

You can add at least Sweden, Latvia and Netherlands to that list as well.
Ignorance kills. :tombstone:
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:21 pm

speedygonzales wrote:
olle wrote:
Spain france and belgium says they will veto any extension if not uk can show what they will use the extension for an that uk goverment can show that they will get backing from that plan in parlament.

You can add at least Sweden, Latvia and Netherlands to that list as well.


I really am relishing all this control the UK suddenly has..... :lol:
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:46 pm

Aesma wrote:
par13del wrote:
Customs Union, is that equivalent to the backstop except for the entire UK ala the Norway option?


Customs union for the whole UK is actually the backstop as demanded by the UK government.

The EU proposal for the backstop was originally just for NI, basically staying in the CU and single market.

So at the moment "backstop" is understood as all UK, but the EU would have no problem with going back to what was proposed initially (and many in NI would agree too, except for the DUP idiots).



That's because the DUP do not wish to have separate trade rules from the greater UK as NI is sovereign territory of the UK, the only thing stopping this WA passing parliament is that their is no expiration limit to the backstop. With no time limit on the backstop and the EU has to agree to lift it, therefore the EU has no reason to bargain in good faith about the future trade agreement between the EU/UK as the EU will continue imposing its will on foreign sovereign territory of the UK under the backstop an CU.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:22 pm

It seems the market doesn't like what it is seeing: Pound plummeting.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:34 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
It seems the market doesn't like what it is seeing: Pound plummeting.



That's to be expected with a dithering government...………...
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:40 pm

A101 wrote:
That's because the DUP do not wish to have separate trade rules from the greater UK as NI is sovereign territory of the UK, the only thing stopping this WA passing parliament is that their is no expiration limit to the backstop. With no time limit on the backstop and the EU has to agree to lift it, therefore the EU has no reason to bargain in good faith about the future trade agreement between the EU/UK as the EU will continue imposing its will on foreign sovereign territory of the UK under the backstop an CU.


There are already separate rules for much of NI.

In terms of agri, NI was treated very differently from GB during the foot n mouth and BSE crises, this is due to the recognised fact that NI is not within the same landmass as GB - there was a term for it but I can't remember it!

Laws on LGBT weddings, abortion etc are very different in NI to rest of GB.


The DUP are very happy to be different when it suits them.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:44 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
A101 wrote:
That's because the DUP do not wish to have separate trade rules from the greater UK as NI is sovereign territory of the UK, the only thing stopping this WA passing parliament is that their is no expiration limit to the backstop. With no time limit on the backstop and the EU has to agree to lift it, therefore the EU has no reason to bargain in good faith about the future trade agreement between the EU/UK as the EU will continue imposing its will on foreign sovereign territory of the UK under the backstop an CU.


There are already separate rules for much of NI.

In terms of agri, NI was treated very differently from GB during the foot n mouth and BSE crises.

Laws on LGBT weddings, abortion etc are very different in NI to rest of GB.


The DUP are very happy to be different when it suits them.



that's no different from most countries, there are lots a different rules between state, but they all follow the same trade rules as that is a national issue not county or state based.
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 652
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:01 pm

olle wrote:
Spain france and belgium says they will veto any extension if not uk can show what they will use the extension for an that uk goverment can show that they will get backing from that plan in parlament.

I consider that this means a no deal agreement is written on the wall.

If uk leaves and do not rdspect their 39 bn bill i consider it will take a long time until relationships get stabile enough in order to start negotistions an uk eu fta.

So it is brexit opportunity to show how uk will enter paradise.


If you don’t want to trade with us, you’ll be as much shooting yourself in the foot.

I would rather we held on to our 39 billion.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:16 pm

A101 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
It seems the market doesn't like what it is seeing: Pound plummeting.



That's to be expected with a dithering government...………...


No, to put it in simple terms:
- Hard Brexit more likely --> pound down
- Soft Brexit more likely --> bit of the same
- No Brexit more likely --> pound up

Just look at what the market did on referendum night with the speeches of mr. Farage.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:18 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
olle wrote:
Spain france and belgium says they will veto any extension if not uk can show what they will use the extension for an that uk goverment can show that they will get backing from that plan in parlament.

I consider that this means a no deal agreement is written on the wall.

If uk leaves and do not rdspect their 39 bn bill i consider it will take a long time until relationships get stabile enough in order to start negotistions an uk eu fta.

So it is brexit opportunity to show how uk will enter paradise.


If you don’t want to trade with us, you’ll be as much shooting yourself in the foot.

I would rather we held on to our 39 billion.


Fine do that, then you do not get the goods you wanted. Unbelievable hard-headed man. Great Britain doesn't hold the edge here, it is on the losing side of the straw so give this rhetoric up if you will please.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
It seems the market doesn't like what it is seeing: Pound plummeting.



That's to be expected with a dithering government...………...


No, to put it in simple terms:
- Hard Brexit more likely --> pound down
- Soft Brexit more likely --> bit of the same
- No Brexit more likely --> pound up

Just look at what the market did on referendum night with the speeches of mr. Farage.



Markets always react to unexpected shock events, leaving was a shock event as no one expected it and hence the market reacted.

The market is now reacting to the dithering of the TM’s government because it cannot get a consensus on the way forward.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:43 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:


That's to be expected with a dithering government...………...


No, to put it in simple terms:
- Hard Brexit more likely --> pound down
- Soft Brexit more likely --> bit of the same
- No Brexit more likely --> pound up

Just look at what the market did on referendum night with the speeches of mr. Farage.



Markets always react to unexpected shock events, leaving was a shock event as no one expected it and hence the market reacted.

The market is now reacting to the dithering of the TM’s government because it cannot get a consensus on the way forward.


Really? We'll see what the pound does when you crash out, then there is clarity so in your world the market would stabilize instantly and nothing would happen.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:47 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
olle wrote:
Spain france and belgium says they will veto any extension if not uk can show what they will use the extension for an that uk goverment can show that they will get backing from that plan in parlament.

I consider that this means a no deal agreement is written on the wall.

If uk leaves and do not rdspect their 39 bn bill i consider it will take a long time until relationships get stabile enough in order to start negotistions an uk eu fta.

So it is brexit opportunity to show how uk will enter paradise.


If you don’t want to trade with us, you’ll be as much shooting yourself in the foot.

I would rather we held on to our 39 billion.


BTW in each and every trade deal the EU - the UK included - has there is a clause which says the EU must have preferential treatment, meaning you can't make a better deal than the EU by treaty. And still, you believe you can make better deals on your own. Good luck to you, against all odds and reasoning.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:54 pm

speedygonzales wrote:
olle wrote:
Spain france and belgium says they will veto any extension if not uk can show what they will use the extension for an that uk goverment can show that they will get backing from that plan in parlament.

You can add at least Sweden, Latvia and Netherlands to that list as well.


Even Germany. Even Merkel said clearly that the short extension only makes sense if the UK signs the WA before the 29th.

But a hard Brexit will be just fine:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... eal-brexit
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:50 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Really? We'll see what the pound does when you crash out, then there is clarity so in your world the market would stabilize instantly and nothing would happen.



I didn’t say that would happen, I said markets react to events, I think the UK economy is resilient enough to ride out the economic Impact until the future trade agreements are put in place with the EU and the rest of the world, economically I don’t belive we are in the same category as Greece.

A PWC report from 17 suggested that the UK will still be in the top 10 of world economy in the 2030, out of all the EU economy only Germany will be in front of the UK out of all EU members
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:16 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
1. A check-box asking signers to confirm that they are indeed UK Citizens.
2. A box asking for the provision of a UK postcode.


It does also ask for an email address and require a response to the confirmation email.

Last I checked it was well over a million votes and counting. Site appears to be broken now!
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