Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:33 am

Before last night, I was thinking that the UK elites were bad,but now I am grateful for the next years of endless fun when the UK will send to the EU one these ERG pricks to ask for a FTA :D
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:20 am

Olddog wrote:
Before last night, I was thinking that the UK elites were bad,but now I am grateful for the next years of endless fun when the UK will send to the EU one these ERG pricks to ask for a FTA :D


Or the new PM tries to get a hard Brexit whilst Parliament doesn't want it.

BTW who would really want to become PM other than Boris Johnson? I think most of the ERG people are smart enough not to burn their careers on this. Only someone who wants one minute of fame will go for the job.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:40 am

scbriml wrote:
So, in the scenario that MV3 is defeated on Friday a number of options are in play. If round two of indicative votes on Monday fails to produce a clear consensus, then Government will pretty much have to give Parliament three stark choices: 1 - No-Deal Brexit; 2 - ask EU for a long extension in order to redo Brexit (probably resulting in a GE); 3 - Revoke A50.


Option 1 we can rule out as it's been voted down multiple times and only a hardcore minority want this. Option 2 is pointless without a new strategy, but I noted Donald Tusk's recent comments about urging other EU states to be open to this. Option 3 is probably the only choice as Parliament seemingly can't agree on anything else and if everything else is unsuitable, then no Brexit is the only way to avoid a hard Brexit.

Then again, if a long extension is applied for and granted, it really should go to a second referendum and I'd like to think the EU might make this a condition of any long extension request.

In any case, last night was an absolute fiasco as it highlighted just how indecisive and divided Parliament is on the issue of Brexit. It's embarrassing!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:44 am

LJ wrote:
Or the new PM tries to get a hard Brexit whilst Parliament doesn't want it.


It will be too late by then. May will only quit on 22nd May if the negotiated WA is agreed by Parliament (probably on Friday).

It's still far from clear how the Government will be able to bring in the vote on Friday and even less clear that she has enough support to get it through.
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:10 am

I still fail to see how an allegedly 'very bad deal' suddenly becomes acceptable to so many Tories because the co-author announces she'd quit once it has been adopted?
Best proof this is all about self-interest and personal careers of overly ambitious MPs, nothing to do with 'keeping the Union' intact as they often pretend.

Anyway, let's pass the popcorn: it will be interesting to see the UK and a gang of politicians litterally tearing itself completely apart over Europe in the next few days.
How many PM's have the Tories already sacrificed over Europe in the past few decades?
And the most contentious part still needs to start: that where the UK will for the first time get to feel just what it can obtain from the EU as a third country!
That will be a very sobering experience for sure, going by the way in which British politicians have massively overplayed and overrated their own hand.
Remember this was the EASY bit: to get out... now comes the hard part: the get a deal which doesn't do too much harm, while it offers a chance of reaping some benefits from all of this.
Who'd be willing to give it another try and fail miserably at it as well? BoJo? Raab? DD? Any other ambitous Tory nutcase?
Mr. Barnier is already waiting for him/her with a truckload of humble pie and some tissues.
The EU is scoring points without even having to come out to play.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:18 am

scbriml wrote:
LJ wrote:
Or the new PM tries to get a hard Brexit whilst Parliament doesn't want it.


It will be too late by then. May will only quit on 22nd May if the negotiated WA is agreed by Parliament (probably on Friday).

It's still far from clear how the Government will be able to bring in the vote on Friday and even less clear that she has enough support to get it through.


- 5pm today is the deadline to have motion to allow MV3 in commons tomorrow.
- Speaker, as we know, may not allow it
- Unlikely to have support in the commons to get through anyhow

Long extension likely outcome... which makes Monday’s indicative ranking vote very interesting.

Any success on Monday could shape this next phase and the basis on which a long extension is requested. Some opinions/votes could well change with this MV3 deadline having passed and TM officially failing.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:39 am

sabenapilot wrote:
I still fail to see how an allegedly 'very bad deal' suddenly becomes acceptable to so many Tories because the co-author announces she'd quit once it has been adopted?
Best proof this is all about self-interest and personal careers of overly ambitious MPs, nothing to do with 'keeping the Union' intact as they often pretend.


The Brexitemists in UK politics are nothing more than opportunists.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:48 am

Dutchy wrote:
Parliament voted down tonight:
> No-Deal Brexit (B)
> Common Market 2.0/Norway Plus (D)
> Norway Option (H)
> Customs Union (J)
> Labour’s Brexit Plan (K)
> No-Deal Emergency Brake (L)
> Second Referendum (M)
> Malthouse Plan B (O)

Brilliant, all motions turned down by this Parliament, so in conclusion: so what do you want???????!!!!!!!!!!!

So nothing has changed in the past 25years.

We'll see on Friday if TM's ultimate self-sacrifice is enough to get a positive vote on WA. Then the way is open for a Brexiteer Prime Minister like Boris Johnson.

Morons.... let them suffer and kick those idiots put of the EU the hard way.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:05 am

sabenapilot wrote:
I still fail to see how an allegedly 'very bad deal' suddenly becomes acceptable to so many Tories because the co-author announces she'd quit once it has been adopted?



Agree, I have been wondering the same thing, but if it dosnt pass is she really going to stay. I think what ever happens she has got to go.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:21 am

Dutchy wrote:

The Brexitemists in UK politics are nothing more than opportunists.


Every politician is an opportunists no matter country or party they are a part of, to think otherwise is naive.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:25 am

scbriml wrote:
We'll see. This isn't even close to being finished yet.


Like you say, we'll see. But I rather consider last night to have been an embarrassment, and a cursory glance at the Continental Press reveals that they think so too. At the heart of this all is Parliamentary Government vs. Government by Parliament. For the first time in a long time, the United Kingdom has had a taste of the latter and it has been a shambles. MPs broke precedent, but in doing so proved categorically why that precedent exists. Watching Nick Boles, under the scrutiny of Jacob Rees-Mogg* attempt to reconcile his professed continued confidence in HM Government with his vote to take control of the parliamentary timetable away from said government, was a fascinating exercise in mental gymnastics.

*I'm sure you will agree, even if you do not support his Brexit stance, that there are few MPs more learned in the matters of Parliamentary Procedure and Constitutional Law as Rees-Mogg.

As if to add to the stupidity, Jeremy Corbyn apparently decided today would be a good day to insult the SNP, whose support he would probably need if he were ever to form a minority government. Sometimes I wonder if he actually wants to govern or not. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 4138864640
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:42 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

The Brexitemists in UK politics are nothing more than opportunists.


Every politician is an opportunists no matter country or party they are a part of, to think otherwise is naive.


That is quite a cynic look at politicians and from personal experience, I can say that this is not necessarily the case.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:46 am

Corbyn wants out of the EU as much as Rees-Mogg, only for very different reasons, but both are happy to be ruler of the ashes once the UK has left.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:27 am

Richard28 wrote:
Long extension likely outcome... which makes Monday’s indicative ranking vote very interesting.

Any success on Monday could shape this next phase and the basis on which a long extension is requested. Some opinions/votes could well change with this MV3 deadline having passed and TM officially failing.


But, of course, EU27 agreement is required for a long extension.

If MV3 doesn't pass, will May stay? She can't be forced out thanks to the ERG's premature no-confidence vote last year.

sabenapilot wrote:
I still fail to see how an allegedly 'very bad deal' suddenly becomes acceptable to so many Tories because the co-author announces she'd quit once it has been adopted?


A combination of factors. Having seen their preferred option of a no-deal Brexit firmly rejected by Parliament, they're suddenly faced with the prospect of a long delay, a second referendum or even (however remote the chance) revocation of A50. All of a sudden, any Brexit is better than no Brexit. Plus they don't trust May to handle the negotiation of the future relationship.

A direct quote from Rees-Mogg this morning "I don't like her deal. I make no bones about this. I don't think the deal's suddenly got better, simply that the alternative is now worse."

KLDC10 wrote:
MPs broke precedent, but in doing so proved categorically why that precedent exists.


If precedent is never broken, nothing progresses. I'm afraid I fall in the camp of "Desperate times call for desperate measures." Again, it's not over yet.

KLDC10 wrote:
As if to add to the stupidity, Jeremy Corbyn apparently decided today would be a good day to insult the SNP, whose support he would probably need if he were ever to form a minority government. Sometimes I wonder if he actually wants to govern or not. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 4138864640


Yes, it's easier to not govern, then you can promise everyone everything but not have to deliver it. How long can the Corbyn/McDonnell axis wield power at Labour? I don't have a lot of time for her, but Sturgeon bitch-slapped him good and proper:
Dear @jeremycorbyn - instead of talking about things that happened when I was eight years old, how about showing some leadership today? You could start by asking yourself why the polls show you still trailing behind the most incompetent Tory government in our lifetimes.

This is why I can't see a GE having any benefit whatsoever. We will most likely end up with another hung Parliament. Rinse and repeat.
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:44 am

Dutchy wrote:

That is quite a cynic look at politicians and from personal experience, I can say that this is not necessarily the case.


Ah don’t get me wrong, I belive that upon entering political servitude they have good intentions according to their beliefs, but to achieve there goals if they can politics corrupts the sole because of the compromise’s along the way,

But your biased statement incorrectly paints a picture the only those politicians who voted to leave are the only opportunist in government and that is far from the case
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:44 am

Meanwhile, in the some things never change department...

Bill Cash
@BillCashMP
I'm not sure where the Daily Mail got the idea that I might back the Withdrawal Agreement. The Prime Minister's deal is not Brexit and under it we do not regain control of our laws.


There was an item on the BBC last night reviewing the Tories love-hate relationship with the EU and how it has fractured the party. It featured a younger-looking Bill Cash complaining about it some 30 years ago.

Also...

"I wouldn't vote for it if they put a shotgun in my mouth," Conservative Mark Francois says he will still vote against the #Brexit withdrawal agreement

Also...

BoJo flapping in the wind like a tatty old flag, says in the Evening Standard "May's deal is dead."
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:48 am

KLDC10 wrote:
I rather consider last night to have been an embarrassment, and a cursory glance at the Continental Press reveals that they think so too.


I don't think the general consensus in Europe is disbelief about the recently started process, but rather disbelief about the complete inability to compromise.

Remember that no other EU country has a FPTP electoral system and that very very few are not used to having coalition governments in place, so government infights and even parliamentary deadlock isn't something they aren't used to: what they aren't used to is seeing how none of the country's institutions, none of the Parliamentary rules, none of the Constitutional precendents which replace a written Constitution in the UK can apparently solve this incredibile situation for almost 3 years now!

KLDC10 wrote:
For the first time in a long time, the United Kingdom has had a taste of the latter (i.e. Government by Parliament) and it has been a shambles. MPs broke precedent, but in doing so proved categorically why that precedent exists.


In all fairness, it was their very first attempt at testing the waters and seeing where common ground could situate itself since they have so far been whipped and bullied into following party lines which have shown themselves to be untenable and they came extremely close to recommending already 1 interesting alternative which seems to be able to command a majority if given a second look (and after narrowing the options down a bit further): that of a CU.

Note how just 5 MPs need to change their mind for that to pass...

A CU would be welcomed by the EU for sure as it would make Brexit far easier for them, it would give the UK a good reason to ask for a lenghty extension and move away from the cliff edge for which it is totally unprepared, it would go a long way at resolving the NI backstop problem, it would make the all important future EU-UK FTA immediately far more ambitious, it would easily guarantee the UK could remain using the EU's global portfolio of FTAs with minimal effort.... you name it: the advantages are almost endless and what's more: it wouldn't violate the referendum result even, since the CU wasn't on the ballot paper... heck, it wasn't even mentioned in the campaign!

Remember that leaving the CU was something the Tories added to their wish list only after the referendum in order to be able 'to strike British trade deals', aka make the UK a walhalla of free trade flows, most certainly to the detriment of its workers.
The Tories have always had a hard time explaining how Brexit was all about immigration like TM says it did, and yet at the same time adding a free trade sauce over it. The 2 don't match up: the only reason the CU should be left according to the Tories is because it gives them a uniquely opportunistic chance at turning the British economy even further into M. Tatcher's wet dream.

My bet is membership of the CU will be secured in a vote next Monday and Dr Fox will effectively be out of a job after that..
Not that he has done much over the past 2 and a half years: a few lousy trade continuation deals with micro-nations (some of which not even fully sovereign) oh and convince Government it needs to spend 16M dollars on some luxury New York skyscraper apartment - for a civil servant who is going to try negotiating British trade deals with the US.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8727770/g ... ns-brexit/
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:21 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
But I rather consider last night to have been an embarrassment, and a cursory glance at the Continental Press reveals that they think so too. At the heart of this all is Parliamentary Government vs. Government by Parliament. For the first time in a long time, the United Kingdom has had a taste of the latter and it has been a shambles.


Yesterday was the first steps in moving forward. Whilst there was no clear majority yesterday, if you look aty the data, and in particular the abstentions, then things could change next week, and certainly change as we head to the next cliff edge on 12th April to hopefully avoid No Deal.

It is the whole Brexit process that has been embarrassment.

Brexit does not mean Brexit, Leave does not Mean Leave... Parliament are still figuring this out.

KLDC10 wrote:
MPs broke precedent, but in doing so proved categorically why that precedent exists. Watching Nick Boles, under the scrutiny of Jacob Rees-Mogg* attempt to reconcile his professed continued confidence in HM Government with his vote to take control of the parliamentary timetable away from said government, was a fascinating exercise in mental gymnastics.

*I'm sure you will agree, even if you do not support his Brexit stance, that there are few MPs more learned in the matters of Parliamentary Procedure and Constitutional Law as Rees-Mogg.


Actually, Rees-Mogg got schooled by Sir Oliver Letwin yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONtZ6FPnGoc


KLDC10 wrote:
As if to add to the stupidity, Jeremy Corbyn apparently decided today would be a good day to insult the SNP, whose support he would probably need if he were ever to form a minority government. Sometimes I wonder if he actually wants to govern or not.


This we agree on. Corbyn is a total disaster.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
As if to add to the stupidity, Jeremy Corbyn apparently decided today would be a good day to insult the SNP, whose support he would probably need if he were ever to form a minority government. Sometimes I wonder if he actually wants to govern or not. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 4138864640


Yes, it's easier to not govern, then you can promise everyone everything but not have to deliver it. How long can the Corbyn/McDonnell axis wield power at Labour? I don't have a lot of time for her, but Sturgeon bitch-slapped him good and proper:
Dear @jeremycorbyn - instead of talking about things that happened when I was eight years old, how about showing some leadership today? You could start by asking yourself why the polls show you still trailing behind the most incompetent Tory government in our lifetimes.

This is why I can't see a GE having any benefit whatsoever. We will most likely end up with another hung Parliament. Rinse and repeat.


If we end up with another hung parliament and somehow Labour has the opportunity to form a majority if it can form a coalition/confidence-and-supply arrangement with the SNP, you can bet the first thing the SNP will demand in return is a second independence referendum at some point during the life of the Government. I too had to laugh at her tweet despite having no time for her or her party. She also had another dig at Corbyn at last Saturday's march in London for being absent (he was up in Morecambe).

Corbyn only wants a GE now because he's more interested in power and seems to think he could win despite polls indicating otherwise. He's not really interested in Brexit but he doesn't realise it will be a hot topic which he will have to deal with whether he wants to or not, nor does he realise that his "vision" for Brexit is another unicorn. I also think any Labour-leaning folk who voted remain would have been alienated by Barry Gardiner's comment yesterday (which reminds me to canvass some friends of mine who are remain and Labour), as well as reneging on a promise of a referendum if they got into power by claiming they can negotiate a better Brexit...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politi ... diner-says

:roll: :banghead:
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:30 pm

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Meaning the Backstop was a UK request!


No not at all, that was not the position of the UK prior to the EU's working paper on 8 Nov 2017, the UK position was "We do not want a hard border in Ireland (as did the EU), and we will achieve that by having a very close economic relationship to the EU in the future." i.e. outside the CU/SM as part of the future trade relationship. it was the EU position the NI remains in the CU/SM until an acceptable future trade agreement takes place with no time limit. Stupidly under pressure from the DUP TM agreed as long as the entire UK was part of it for reason I mention prior. the original position was not a UK request.

The original EU position is an automatic consequence of the GFA; And the Backstop was a UK request based ont hat automatic consequence.

What TM did wrong was not take it to parliament and put to a vote before she signed the bloody thing, all this could have been averted if not for her remain bias to the CU/SM

You could already be dealing with the catastrophic consequences of no deal right now if the WA would have been rejected.

Leavers are still dreaming of some imaginary leverage to somehow get all those rainbows and unicorns, but in reality, you don't have any such leverage because those rainbows and unicorns simply don't exist!
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:28 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
I still fail to see how an allegedly 'very bad deal' suddenly becomes acceptable to so many Tories because the co-author announces she'd quit once it has been adopted?


^^^ THIS! ^^^

Self serving, childish, arrogant, evil clowns, the lot of them!

Weird thing is, BoJo seemed to be quite an amiable guy in the past and his dad (remainer) also seems quite an amiable chap (in an upper class twit kind of way).

I am almost tempted to stake out Rees-Mogg (I know exactly where he lives) and give him a piece of my mind, but I expect some burly guys would jump out of the bushes and apprehend me...
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:41 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Weird thing is, BoJo seemed to be quite an amiable guy in the past and his dad (remainer) also seems quite an amiable chap (in an upper class twit kind of way).


BoJo's father is very smart and not in the slightest way a bumbling buffoon, unlike his elder son. Once verbally abused while riding his bike in London his response to a cry of "Oi, Johnson. You're a wanker!" was "I think you're referring to my son!" as he rode off. :rotfl:

BoJo's brother, MP Joe Johnson is an eminently sensible and reasonable politician.

You know what they say, there's one in every family.
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Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:35 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
scbriml wrote:
So, in the scenario that MV3 is defeated on Friday a number of options are in play. If round two of indicative votes on Monday fails to produce a clear consensus, then Government will pretty much have to give Parliament three stark choices: 1 - No-Deal Brexit; 2 - ask EU for a long extension in order to redo Brexit (probably resulting in a GE); 3 - Revoke A50.


Option 1 we can rule out as it's been voted down multiple times and only a hardcore minority want this.


It doesn't matter how much parliament votes against no deal, that doesn't stop it from happening.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:51 pm

Bostrom wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
scbriml wrote:
So, in the scenario that MV3 is defeated on Friday a number of options are in play. If round two of indicative votes on Monday fails to produce a clear consensus, then Government will pretty much have to give Parliament three stark choices: 1 - No-Deal Brexit; 2 - ask EU for a long extension in order to redo Brexit (probably resulting in a GE); 3 - Revoke A50.


Option 1 we can rule out as it's been voted down multiple times and only a hardcore minority want this.


It doesn't matter how much parliament votes against no deal, that doesn't stop it from happening.


Indeed, the EU said there must be a credible alternative to the negotiated WA, otherwise, the UK will be out with a no-deal Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:18 pm

As the UK keeps saying NO to anything including a 'no deal', the EU is already looking beyond Brexit...
Today the 27 ambassadors to the EU looked at the conditions the UK will have to meet first to even start talks on the all important FTA.

In a nutshell:
- full upfront payment of the outstanding bill as previously calculated
- NI to become part of the EU's custom territory in order to (re)open the border
- full regulatory allignment with the Single Market
So whether the UK agrees to or not, the WA is basically set as pre-condition to any FTA negotiation by the EU, and there's no longer talk of any 'alternative arrangements or technological solutions' to any sort of a backstop: the raw backstop from the WA simply becomes the full asking price post-Brexit.

Ambassadors expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table pretty soon after a 'no deal' Brexit to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK economy to survive are swiftly re-established, and so the price starts to go up... and up... and up.

Taking back control, right? ;)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:42 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Taking back control, right? ;)


Nope, they need us more than we need them, rhetoric.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:53 pm

Bostrom wrote:
It doesn't matter how much parliament votes against no deal, that doesn't stop it from happening.


The PM has made it clear in Parliament that unless there is a vote in favour of no-deal, the UK will not leave the EU on a no-deal basis. As things stand today, Parliament has three ways of stopping a no-deal Brexit.

Dutchy wrote:
Indeed, the EU said there must be a credible alternative to the negotiated WA, otherwise, the UK will be out with a no-deal Brexit.


Of course, and those credible alternatives would include asking for a long extension (obviously requires EU27 agreement) or revoking A50.

On the assumption the WA is rejected again and either Parliament or the EU rejects a long extension, Parliament would only have one way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:02 pm

And for that it would have to find a majority to revoke. The only way of voting against the hard Brexit is by voting for something.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:04 pm

scbriml wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
It doesn't matter how much parliament votes against no deal, that doesn't stop it from happening.


The PM has made it clear in Parliament that unless there is a vote in favour of no-deal, the UK will not leave the EU on a no-deal basis. As things stand today, Parliament has three ways of stopping a no-deal Brexit.

Dutchy wrote:
Indeed, the EU said there must be a credible alternative to the negotiated WA, otherwise, the UK will be out with a no-deal Brexit.


Of course, and those credible alternatives would include asking for a long extension (obviously requires EU27 agreement) or revoking A50.

On the assumption the WA is rejected again and either Parliament or the EU rejects a long extension, Parliament would only have one way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.


Parliament voted AGAINST revoking A50. And Europe WON'T give ANY extension UNLESS something like a 2nd referendum is held. To which parliament ALSO said: NO.
Apparently, I need to repeat myself every new page in this thread: So far, parliament has said NO to pretty much every proposal. The default is a crash out of the EU on April 12. So unless parliament votes "YES" to something, the crash out WILL HAPPEN.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:16 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
So unless parliament votes "YES" to something, the crash out WILL HAPPEN.


Yes, that is correct and I think everyone on this thread knows it, Dieuwer, at least a fact we can agree on.
They are putting up the pressure, we see the ERG members are folding already. A compromise will be sought, after all, at least a short term compromise. Like with all compromises, nobody will get their way. We will see in the coming two weeks that something will get a yes and hopefully it will be something the EU can agree on as well.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:24 pm

No matter what happens from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, the UK will never be the same. The battles have badly destroyed what little trust the voters had in the Parliament and the UK's relations with the EC may go back to the 50's. It has deeply divided the country and families. It could mean the UK will be a rump state of what is England. All because of a selfish ideal of a minority to withdraw from the EC. I am glad I have visited the UK a number of times, most recently in fall of 2017 (England and Wales) before it all goes to hell.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:55 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Parliament voted AGAINST revoking A50. And Europe WON'T give ANY extension UNLESS something like a 2nd referendum is held. To which parliament ALSO said: NO.


Non-binding votes. Nothing is off the table if Parliament approves it.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:34 pm

Well, if things go as usual, WA will be voted down tomorrow and 12/04 will come soon
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:40 pm

So, the latest twist is that in order to comply with The Speaker's ruling, the Government is now putting before Parliament the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration. This seems like a desperate attempt to have the WA approved by Parliament in order to secure the May 22nd extension from the EU.

There is lots of discussion as to the legality of this move on the basis that the WA & PD comprise indivisibly linked parts of the whole. Lots of very unhappy MPs. It certainly looks doomed to failure.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:42 pm

Klaus wrote:
The original EU position is an automatic consequence of the GFA; And the Backstop was a UK request based ont hat automatic consequence.


No it wasn’t, it was an extension of the original EU proposal that NI remain in the CU/SM, under the misguided belief that that GFA and CU/SM is the same economic model, with the EU used it to stop progress to the future trade agreement to which terms of trade and frictionless border could be established


Klaus wrote:
You could already be dealing with the catastrophic consequences of no deal right now if the WA would have been rejected.


I would rather that happen than be subjected to the overlord dictatorship of the EU, then one how dosnt respect the result of a legitimate referendum

Klaus wrote:
Leavers are still dreaming of some imaginary leverage to somehow get all those rainbows and unicorns, but in reality, you don't have any such leverage because those rainbows and unicorns simply don't exist



Same ole dogmatic approach of misrepresenting and taring everyone with the same brush.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:59 pm

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
The original EU position is an automatic consequence of the GFA; And the Backstop was a UK request based ont hat automatic consequence.


No it wasn’t, it was an extension of the original EU proposal that NI remain in the CU/SM, under the misguided belief that that GFA and CU/SM is the same economic model, with the EU used it to stop progress to the future trade agreement to which terms of trade and frictionless border could be established

You're just spouting propaganda, but the facts simply stay the facts, and they are verifiable.

Klaus wrote:
You could already be dealing with the catastrophic consequences of no deal right now if the WA would have been rejected.


I would rather that happen than be subjected to the overlord dictatorship of the EU, then one how dosnt respect the result of a legitimate referendum

Who has stripped your full seat at the table, your full vote and even your veto from you against your will?

Actually, you yourself have done that with your Leave vote, and your complaint could actually just be made by your compatriots whom you're trying to strip those powers from against their wills!

Against all our warnings you've been shooting yourself into both of your own feet and now badly bleeding you're aiming at your kneecaps as well, for good measure! Why?

Klaus wrote:
Leavers are still dreaming of some imaginary leverage to somehow get all those rainbows and unicorns, but in reality, you don't have any such leverage because those rainbows and unicorns simply don't exist

Same ole dogmatic approach of misrepresenting and taring everyone with the same brush.

You clearly still believe in most of the rainbows and unicorns, just your belief in your fantastical leverage seems to have suffered somewhat by its obviously complete absence in the real world negotiations.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
So, the latest twist is that in order to comply with The Speaker's ruling, the Government is now putting before Parliament the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration. This seems like a desperate attempt to have the WA approved by Parliament in order to secure the May 22nd extension from the EU.

There is lots of discussion as to the legality of this move on the basis that the WA & PD comprise indivisibly linked parts of the whole. Lots of very unhappy MPs. It certainly looks doomed to failure.


Well, it certainly looks like it's against the law because the law does not allow to split WA from PD, but the official argument is that the UK law can be changed so that it's no longer against it, while the EU never asked to ratify the PD in the first place as it's just a non-binding text anyway.
And with the WA passed, minds will more easily focus on the PD and some sort of a majority for it can be found too, which can then be accepted as well, albeit not together.
Besides, the litteral reading of the EU's ultimatum by the UK Government is that the UK should have voted on the WA by tomorrow, although this reading has meanwhile been explained as being 'wrong'. (BTW- interesting how the UK government is already happily taking ultimatums from the EU and let's it business be dictated by Brussels now, although it isn't a third country yet)

In reality it's just the government:
- hoping that it can gain more votes for its negotiated WA to keep on stumbling further along the road for a few more days.
- kicking the can on the future relationship further down the road (again) to keep the Tory infighting controlable.
- aiming for the longest possible extension currently on offer by the EU because the UK isn't remotely ready and asked for an even longer one
- trying to play political tricks with the opposition (if they vote against just the WA, the Tories can then say Labour doesn't honour the referendum...)

Will they succeed?
Hard to predict, but my guess is the WA alone will be voted down as well, although with less votes than in the previous 2 cases when it was combined with the PD.
The DUP will certainly vote against it, so that makes it difficult for a lot of ERG members to abandon them (especially as absolutely nothing has changed to the WA and their objections to it) and Labour will also whip to vote against it... So it's just a bunch of doubtful Tories that she can take additional votes from, but that likely won't be enough.
TM might even see a few defectors who voted for her WA and the PD on the past occasion(s) as they now see more of a chance of a softer Brexit through the indicative voting process which is to continue on Monday then they had deemed possible when TM was still firmly claiming it was her deal, or no deal....
Tomorrow the choice will be for the PM's WA (and more infighting over the PD after that) or anything else which is softer than that really as from Monday.

If tomorrow May fails for a 3rd time, I think the CU is the least painful modificiation to the PD Parliament can demand from the EU for the UK to be granted the urgently needed long extension. It came short by only 8 votes yesterday, remember? I bet both parties are already timidly looking at possible candidates for the European elections which the UK will have to organise in that case...;)
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:38 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
If tomorrow May fails for a 3rd time, I think the CU is the least painful modificiation to the PD Parliament can demand from the EU for the UK to be granted the urgently needed long extension. It came short by only 8 votes yesterday, remember? I bet both parties are already timidly looking at possible candidates for the European elections which the UK will have to organise in that case...;)


Isn't the WA necesary ratified to discuss a CU?
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:49 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Isn't the WA necesary ratified to discuss a CU?

Yes.

What is funnier is the UK can vote for the WA and reject the political declaration. But the PD is a favor that the EU is doing to the UK. The EU can easily negotiate a trade agreement without that constraint.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:02 pm

Olddog wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
Isn't the WA necesary ratified to discuss a CU?

Yes.

What is funnier is the UK can vote for the WA and reject the political declaration. But the PD is a favor that the EU is doing to the UK. The EU can easily negotiate a trade agreement without that constraint.

Indeed, because it's explicitly non-binding and as such not really a constraint – the substance will still depend primarily on the WA and on the actual negotiations between the parties at the time.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 2902
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:38 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
If tomorrow May fails for a 3rd time, I think the CU is the least painful modificiation to the PD Parliament can demand from the EU for the UK to be granted the urgently needed long extension. It came short by only 8 votes yesterday, remember? I bet both parties are already timidly looking at possible candidates for the European elections which the UK will have to organise in that case...;)


Isn't the WA necesary ratified to discuss a CU?


Obviously, the UK can only enter into a Customs Union with the EU if it has left the EU and so a WA is indeed needed, but the idea is that IF Parliament forced the Government to ask the EU for a CU, it would mean the PD would have to be significantly altered and although the EU has said it could do so in just a couple of days (the text is probably ready just for that case), it would also have no problem to grand a longer extension to the UK's EU membership in order to make the transition smoother: there's no use in letting the UK leave the EU (and its CU) in a pseudo-orderly way on May 22th via the WA, only to rejoin a couple of months/years later via the CU, is there?

Being in a CU means the UK will not be able to conclude its own FTA of course, but the EU has already offered a sort of consultation mechanism to keep the UK informed of any new FTA it may sign also on its behalf and to listen to its imput (although it remains to be seen just how much weight those would carry), so although a lengthy extension requires the UK to participate in the European elections, it would not be completely crazy to have some MEPs elected for this purpose in future...

As was said: the PD is a favour by the EU to help TM get the rather hard to swallow WA across the line.
It turns out it may contain the most contentious elements of the whole Brexit debate now, even!
Another demonstration TM really reads the minds and harts of British MPs very poorly!
She was the one who first expanded the NI backstop to the entire UK (to keep the DUP onboard, although largely inacceptable to her own party) and she was the one who then tried to sell this expansion as just something of temporary nature because of the PD (until people started to look carefully and noted the WA and its backstop are an international treaty, whereas the PD is just a non-binding intension and thus not on the same level).
TM really made a mess out of it all, mainly because she drew far to many radical red lines for which she has no Parliamentary majority whatsoever, yet wants to work ONLY with Tories and the DUP.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:03 pm

The Irish Border @BorderIrish wrote:

Image
There’s me at the Brexit negotiations.


Quite brilliant Twitter account.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:05 pm

Post delete only partial information installed will repost when I have time
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:51 pm

Klaus wrote:
You're just spouting propaganda, but the facts simply stay the facts, and they are verifiable.


Show me the verifiable fact that it was the UK position they first proposed that NI would remain part of the CU/SM prior to stating if NI remains all the UK remains


Klaus wrote:
You could already be dealing with the catastrophic consequences of no deal right now if the WA would have been rejected.


I guess we will never know what may have transpired if TM did not sign and put it to a vote at parliament first.

Klaus wrote:
Who has stripped your full seat at the table, your full vote and even your veto from you against your will?

Actually, you yourself have done that with your Leave vote, and your complaint could actually just be made by your compatriots whom you're trying to strip those powers from against their wills!


The objective of the referendum was either remain or leave, of course we knew that once we left all powers within the EU would no longer be there, we didn’t ask to remain seated at the table, no one has been striped anything, the power of a referendum is collective not individually.




Klaus wrote:
Against all our warnings you've been shooting yourself into both of your own feet and now badly bleeding you're aiming at your kneecaps as well, for good measure! Why?



Oh I certainly know the implications of the two remaining positions avalible to the UK, and I say be dammed with the EU as Brussels is clearly no friend of the UK. The real world negotiations was over the day TM signed the agreement. TM knew she had to get parliamentary approval of the agreement beforehand she folded her cards before the last hand could be dealt, she burnt the candle at both ends hoping by signing it would force parliament’s hand .....how wrong she was.

The EU dosnt want a hard exist just like the UK, it’s not only the UK walking the tightrope
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:20 am

Brexiteers : "we want our politicians to have all the power to govern us, not faceless strangers !"

some time later...

"Our politicians are a totally useless bunch !"
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:23 am

sabenapilot : once the WA is signed nothing really happens in May 2019, aside from some people opening the champagne bottle shouting "freedom". There is a transition period til the end of 2020 (or longer), during which time the UK is for most intents and purposes still an EU member.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:28 am

Well hopefully in 18.5 hours we can start moving forward and be done with the EU :checkeredflag:
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:18 am

Today was Brexit day.

The British government still has no idea what they plan to do.

The emperor has no clothes.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
jcancel
Posts: 133
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:24 am

And this is why a mandatory reconsideration campaign and banning Brexit thought will be necessary. If people don't like authoritarianism on this page, if you don't like Brexit supporters losing control over their own politics and losing MP seats, you need to make the right decisions.

At some point Brexit supporters (media companies, MPs, big businessmen) will need to be read the riot act: Brexit is bad. Admit it, accept responsibility, give up your political power, and make compensation.

ltbewr wrote:
No matter what happens from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, the UK will never be the same. The battles have badly destroyed what little trust the voters had in the Parliament and the UK's relations with the EC may go back to the 50's. It has deeply divided the country and families. It could mean the UK will be a rump state of what is England. All because of a selfish ideal of a minority to withdraw from the EC. I am glad I have visited the UK a number of times, most recently in fall of 2017 (England and Wales) before it all goes to hell.


The UK will never done with the EU as the EU is the trading bloc next door that Britain must deal with. Just like the US will never be done with Canada and Mexico.

However countries that lose their financial power lose democracy. Brexit thought may be banned outright (so the population must accept post Brexit normalization of attitudes to the EU) through an act of a new, post-Brexit, anti-Brexit Parliament, so every person living in the UK may be done with promoting Brexit.

A101 wrote:
Well hopefully in 18.5 hours we can start moving forward and be done with the EU :checkeredflag:
 
LJ
Posts: 4725
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:26 am

A101 wrote:
Well hopefully in 18.5 hours we can start moving forward and be done with the EU :checkeredflag:


Ehhh you mean you've to wait another 2 weeks (or less) as nothing will change after today unless the UK Parliament suddenly decides not to use the extension till April 12th should the WA be voted down (highly unlikely given the indecisiveness of the UK Parliament).

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