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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:31 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
my vote for Brexit was not based on a desire to close Britain off to the world


KLDC10 wrote:
why you insist on bleating about it from New Zealand.


no comment.


There's no contradiction here. New Zealand is unaffected by Brexit, so I don't understand the hysteria.


if you cannot see your own prejudices, contradictions and jingoism, as evidenced within one single post, then I cannot help you further.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:01 pm

scbriml wrote:
A101 wrote:
You still haven't shown me in the GFA document when leaving the CU breaks the GFA


I can't help feeling you're being somewhat disingenuous on this.

As you pointed out, the GFA is not about trade and customs. It's a political instrument designed to bring peace and stability to the island of Ireland. In very large measure, it has achieved that. Both the UK and Irish Governments are fully committed to upholding the GFA.

A consequence of the GFA is that there is no longer a need for a hard border between RoI and NI. People and goods are free to cross between the two, aided by the fact that both sides are in the EU.


:checkmark:
Many sections of the Good Friday agreement are in relation to cross-border rights. As scbriml points out, the Customs Union and Single Market are not expressly mentioned, however as a consequence of their removal the Good Friday Agreement is not adhered to.

for starters:
Strand 2, section1, 5 (ii), 5(iv), 9(ii) and 11,

It must be remembered that the Good Friday Agreement is a series of provisions agreed to by both UK and ROI prior to Brexit even being a word and is an international obligation for the UK to continue to adhere to.

The backstop is a method (devised by the UK itself remember) to adhere to these commitments.

The more crucial thing to note form the backstop is that, if "technological solutions" were available, then the backstop would not need to be implemented, and as such, you would have thought this would not be a problem for Mogg and Boris, who believe this technology is available.

However that they are so steadfast (up to now) against the backstop speaks volumes for their real view on technological solutions in this area.

The GFA is being disregarded by the Mogg/Boris & Co., which is very dangerous politics indeed.
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:02 pm

seahawk wrote:
Parliament needs to move now and vote for the hard Brexit.

The GFA is not a problem, if Ireland wants to keep an open border they can simply leave the EU and join a customs union with the UK. If they do insist on being in the EU, the border is their fault.


That comment is almost up there with the online suggestions that Ireland should just be either invaded or rejoin the UK, a la 100+ years ago. Why should another country, which has upheld it's end of a long standing international agreement have to make such a drastic or extreme change just to suit the ill-conceived needs of it's neighbouring country, led by a government that want's to have it's Brexit cake and eat it? 'It's our fudge up but they can deal with it!'

Many Brexiteers are disillusioned with the facts and realities, they don't know what the border actually looks like, and because NI is on a different bit of land to the rest of the UK, many simply don't care. The best outcome for the island of Ireland and all it's inhabitants can only be either the revocation of A50 or the backstop.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:06 pm

Agreements can be changed or broken. If the UK wants out of the GFA it is their sovereign choice. And, yes I am aware that it means a hard border.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:18 pm

Why is it an unspeakable topic, were North Ireland agree or be pushed to remain in the customs union the border with the ROI can remain open. North Ireland would have the options of :
1. otherwise remaining part of UK, and also having rights to ROI passports and access to the EU
2. being independent, and joining the EU
3 or joining the ROI.

Were I a Brexit Tory I would tell North Ireland to choose one of the three. And as I understand it a majority would likely be satisfied with first. After this the UK could ask for a Brexit delay and work out a reasonable withdraw agreement. (I still think it would be a dumb thing to do, but if that is what the citizens want, so be it.)
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kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:28 pm

In one sense, yes, you're right - they could, but it would be VERY bad move for the UK, for very many reasons. Just a few:
- It could bring a return to violence, which the UK should be against, within part of its territory.
- It would be a slap in the face to members of both communities in NI, reawaking a time that should remain dead. It would increase tensions between these communities which no one wants or needs.
- It would undermine economic growth in a part of the UK which needs it most.
- It would have a massive cost in terms of international goodwill (and the US, for one, has hinted that it would not sign a trade deal with the UK if there was a hard border; were the UK to withdraw from an agreement which the US was involved in brokering ... see where I'm going with this? Just let's say it would not be good for the UK).
- From a cost viewpoint, a return to violence in NI would cost billions which a newly "liberated" UK could not afford (and would/should have far better ways to spend).

I know you're trying to stir the pot, but the sad thing is that there are lots of Brexiteers who seem to think as you do and would happily cut off Britain's nose to spite its face. The attitude towards NI (which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign) is hugely inconsistent; didn't really care about it during the referendum campaign, totally ignore the fact that a significant majority in NI voted to remain, proposed a "backstop" which it now wants to abandon ... and now wants to withdraw from an agreement which ended 25 years of violence and cost 3,000 lives. In the immortal words of a fictional British anti-hero "have you visited the planet Earth recently?".
-
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:29 pm

seahawk wrote:
Agreements can be changed or broken. If the UK wants out of the GFA it is their sovereign choice.


No one questions that. The problem is the UK trying to weasel out of their responsability pointing the finger at Europe and Ireland.

The DUP was opposed to the GFA from the start after all.

Option B on the graph.

Image
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:31 pm

As I said, only the hard Brexit is worth doing, so that is not a problem.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:43 pm

A101 wrote:
agill wrote:

So when the Uk makes a trade deal with clorinated chicken and hormon treated beef from the US. How do you stop that from entering ROI if there isn't border checks?


Can you guarantee now that nothing illegal enters the ROI?


Yes. Everything is checked from outside the CU. That is the basis of it, that's why there will be a hard border between NI and ROI at the moment one side is in the CU and the other is out.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:42 pm

As Brittany Ferries said on french tv, they can't be fully ready, as nobody knows when the UK will finally leave (including the brits) and with what sort of deal. So why recruit now and have the costs that will maybe not needed before some years?
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:24 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Why is it an unspeakable topic, were North Ireland agree or be pushed to remain in the customs union the border with the ROI can remain open. North Ireland would have the options of :
1. otherwise remaining part of UK, and also having rights to ROI passports and access to the EU
2. being independent, and joining the EU
3 or joining the ROI.

Were I a Brexit Tory I would tell North Ireland to choose one of the three. And as I understand it a majority would likely be satisfied with first. After this the UK could ask for a Brexit delay and work out a reasonable withdraw agreement. (I still think it would be a dumb thing to do, but if that is what the citizens want, so be it.)


But, since May depends on the DUP for a majority in the commons the issue with Northern Ireland is a bit more complicated.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:24 pm

I do realize the complications, and realize that May cannot discuss this (per her private and horrible agreement), but no one else in the Tory party seems willing to bring it up. If, generally, NI people, ROI, EU agree that it would be good for the people of N Ireland, would preserve the GFA, have fairly minimal affect on the daily life of Ireland it should be able to be discussed. Are there even any media discussions? I have not seen any.
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Yes. Everything is checked from outside the CU. That is the basis of it, that's why there will be a hard border between NI and ROI at the moment one side is in the CU and the other is out.


Well this is where you are wrong again, prior to both the ROI and the UK joined the CU their were customs points between ROI and NI. person's were free to cross the border, in 1965 before joining the EEC both sides made an agreement for a free trade area, this expanded when joining the EEC in 73 which meant free trade in manufactured goods, but a customs border was still in place for agricultural products, the checks would happen inside the EU to make sure it complies with its policy meets its standards

During the time of the Troubles the hard border and securitisation only become to the fore to inspect cargo for weapons being smuggled into NI, it was not put in place to stop the free movement of finished goods,.

So as we can see prior to joining the EEC there was free movement of people between ROI/NI, as for checks on agricultural products that do not meet the CU standards, that technically will be have carried out on EU side of the border because the importation will not be illegal in NI if a trade agreement is made between the UK and other nations, unless the ROI intend to reignite the struggles for Irish reunification without using the mechanisms within the GFA, then there is no need for re-securitisation of a hard border between ROI/NI so its the EU really throwing up the road blocks between ROI/NI not the other way around and the EU imposing its will on the sovereign territory of an independent country.

If the EU wants the WA signed the EU needs to compromise and place a time limit on it until a future trade agreement can be reached, as I said its the EU throwing up the roadblocks not the UK, as the EU needs to look tough to stop the house of cards falling down of a CU that is why Brussels is so threatened about a UK withdrawal , its fearful of the domino effect. The EU might be showing solidarity at the top of the house where its most strong but the house is built on soft sand at the bottom of a beach with the tide coming in eroding the footings of the house.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:20 pm

A101 wrote:
as for checks on agricultural products that do not meet the CU standards, that technically will be have carried out on EU side of the border because the importation will not be illegal in NI if a trade agreement is made between the UK and other nations, unless the ROI intend to reignite the struggles for Irish reunification without using the mechanisms within the GFA, then there is no need for re-securitisation of a hard border between ROI/NI so its the EU really throwing up the road blocks between ROI/NI not the other way around and the EU imposing its will on the sovereign territory of an independent country.


You have this quite wrong.

  • Border checks are to maintain Single Market standards, there is no such thing as CU standards.
  • checks will need to be made on imports into the EU on the ROI side of the border in the case of a no deal brexit, EU tariffs collected and quotas checked
  • checks will need to be made on imports into UK on the NI side of the border in case of a no deal brexit, UK tariffs collected and quotas checked
  • There was discussion of checks being made in Northern Ireland on behalf of the EU, called Max facilitation, however this was a UK suggestion early on in the process and turned down by the EU as an unworkable solution. It was never an EU suggestion.
  • A trade agreement here is only relevant to the border if it is between the EU and the UK. Even then trade deals do not remove borders, they simply remove or reduce certain tariffs and quotas allowed through the border, that still need to be checked
  • It is not possible for UK to unilaterally declare no tariffs and quotas between NI and ROI as that is breach of WTO rules, and under these "Most Favoured Nation" WTO rules, if you unilaterally give up for one country (without a FTA) you must give them to *ALL* other WTO members, BUT
  • Just because UK gives up its tariffs/quotas, your trade partners do not have to - they can, and would, maintain their tariffs at previous levels - they would have zero incentive to reduce them.



A101 wrote:
If the EU wants the WA signed the EU needs to compromise and place a time limit on it until a future trade agreement can be reached, as I said its the EU throwing up the roadblocks not the UK, as the EU needs to look tough to stop the house of cards falling down of a CU that is why Brussels is so threatened about a UK withdrawal , its fearful of the domino effect. The EU might be showing solidarity at the top of the house where its most strong but the house is built on soft sand at the bottom of a beach with the tide coming in eroding the footings of the house.


The very fact that some suggest a time limit is needed, just re-enforces why there should be a permanent backstop. The passage of time will not change the good friday agreements or our commitments. Either you have (1) a deal which would enable the backstop to be disposed of (which would be an extremely close EU/UK relationship, bye bye USA FTA and chlorinated chicken), or (2) you have backstop to protect these agreements, or (3) "technology" which is what was examined in the Malthouse compromise, and still has not come out with anything practical that could dispose with the backstop - indeed such technology is not used anywhere for this purpose worldwide.

What many still do not understand here is that the EU care much more about maintaining the integrity of the Single Market than the UK leaving the EU. They are not throwing up roadblocks, they are protecting their own internal market, rules and institutions.

A requirement to even negotiate a withdrawal agreement and trade deal were on three prior conditions:

(1) protecting EU and UK citizen rights
(2) Northern Ireland Border & GFA
(3) Financial settlement

This was agreed by Theresa May together with arch Brexiters David Davis and Boris Johnson when they were ministers. The hypocrisy they now give in berating the very things they signed up to is breathtaking.
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:52 pm

seahawk wrote:
As I said, only the hard Brexit is worth doing, so that is not a problem.


It's remarkably easy for such things to be said when they affect others but not you. It would be different if from the outset the people from NI wanted a hard border or to have the vote on possible Irish unification, but to be backed into a corner like that, it's shameful.

Imagine the uproar if the citizens of Gibraltar or the Falklands were told "we don't care what you think, you're being abandoned or given away!"

The EU have done everything they can to protect the GFA and the complicated issue of the UK/Irish border, it's a disgrace that many of us Brits don't give a damn.
 
Dogman
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:08 pm

opticalilyushin wrote:
seahawk wrote:
As I said, only the hard Brexit is worth doing, so that is not a problem.


It's remarkably easy for such things to be said when they affect others but not you. It would be different if from the outset the people from NI wanted a hard border or to have the vote on possible Irish unification, but to be backed into a corner like that, it's shameful.

Imagine the uproar if the citizens of Gibraltar or the Falklands were told "we don't care what you think, you're being abandoned or given away!"

The EU have done everything they can to protect the GFA and the complicated issue of the UK/Irish border, it's a disgrace that many of us Brits don't give a damn.


I think that your troll sensor needs new batteries.
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:26 pm

Dogman wrote:
opticalilyushin wrote:
seahawk wrote:
As I said, only the hard Brexit is worth doing, so that is not a problem.


It's remarkably easy for such things to be said when they affect others but not you. It would be different if from the outset the people from NI wanted a hard border or to have the vote on possible Irish unification, but to be backed into a corner like that, it's shameful.

Imagine the uproar if the citizens of Gibraltar or the Falklands were told "we don't care what you think, you're being abandoned or given away!"

The EU have done everything they can to protect the GFA and the complicated issue of the UK/Irish border, it's a disgrace that many of us Brits don't give a damn.


I think that your troll sensor needs new batteries.


I think some on here need their meds' checked :) Nurse! NURSE!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:00 am

A No Deal Brexit Isn't Actually Legal

No Deal Brexit may be unlawful — a view from Rose Slowe

On top of the GFA that would be violated in case of a no deal Brexit, it turns out the Withdrawal Act 2017 that no deal Brexiteers say is the default position, says in its text that putting up a border between NI and ROI is not possible.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:11 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Why is it an unspeakable topic, were North Ireland agree or be pushed to remain in the customs union the border with the ROI can remain open. North Ireland would have the options of :
1. otherwise remaining part of UK, and also having rights to ROI passports and access to the EU
2. being independent, and joining the EU
3 or joining the ROI.

Were I a Brexit Tory I would tell North Ireland to choose one of the three. And as I understand it a majority would likely be satisfied with first. After this the UK could ask for a Brexit delay and work out a reasonable withdraw agreement. (I still think it would be a dumb thing to do, but if that is what the citizens want, so be it.)


I don't live in a territory that is likely to secede from the rest of the country or anything like that, although my country (France) has such territories that I would rather not secede from it. However it seems to me that the backstop offered by the EU, that included only NI (your 1st choice), and that May found unacceptable because of DUP pressure, is the best of both worlds for Northern Islanders. They get the benefits of being in the UK (I don't know what those benefits are, I understand that NI is actually poorer than ROI), and also some of the benefits of being in the EU, with the only downside being that lorries must be checked at ports of entry, frankly nobody will care or notice except the persons directly concerned. NI trade is mainly with the ROI so keeping that border open is crucial for that reason alone.

To me it looks like NI inhabitants end up losing less from Brexit than the rest of the UK's citizens, in that case.
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:05 am

opticalilyushin wrote:
seahawk wrote:
As I said, only the hard Brexit is worth doing, so that is not a problem.


It's remarkably easy for such things to be said when they affect others but not you. It would be different if from the outset the people from NI wanted a hard border or to have the vote on possible Irish unification, but to be backed into a corner like that, it's shameful.

Imagine the uproar if the citizens of Gibraltar or the Falklands were told "we don't care what you think, you're being abandoned or given away!"

The EU have done everything they can to protect the GFA and the complicated issue of the UK/Irish border, it's a disgrace that many of us Brits don't give a damn.


The only shameful thing is the behaviour of the British political class and the lies they tell when it comes to the Brexit.

You can not have full access to the common market and your own trade deals.
You can not honour the GFA and leave the common market.
A soft Brexit is kind of pointless, as you are still bound by the EU, but get no say in shaping it.

Once you understand this it is either stay in the EU or do the hard Brexit with all consequences. Considering the red lines of the UK staying is no option and only the hard Brexit is possible - with all dire consequences. It does not mean it is a wise option.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:22 am

opticalilyushin wrote:
Imagine the uproar if the citizens of Gibraltar or the Falklands were told "we don't care what you think, you're being abandoned or given away!"


Speaking of Gibraltar, what's exactly their status at the moment? AFAIK they had an agreement with Spain, but wasn't that tied to the WA? Thus, no WA, no agreement?
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:02 pm

LJ wrote:
opticalilyushin wrote:
Imagine the uproar if the citizens of Gibraltar or the Falklands were told "we don't care what you think, you're being abandoned or given away!"


Speaking of Gibraltar, what's exactly their status at the moment? AFAIK they had an agreement with Spain, but wasn't that tied to the WA? Thus, no WA, no agreement?


No one knows because thankfully Spain-UK contacts have remained private.

Problem is the forthcoming Spanish elections are looking like bringing a right wing government which tend to play hardline on Gibraltar.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:50 pm

JJJ wrote:
LJ wrote:
opticalilyushin wrote:
Imagine the uproar if the citizens of Gibraltar or the Falklands were told "we don't care what you think, you're being abandoned or given away!"


Speaking of Gibraltar, what's exactly their status at the moment? AFAIK they had an agreement with Spain, but wasn't that tied to the WA? Thus, no WA, no agreement?


No one knows because thankfully Spain-UK contacts have remained private.

Problem is the forthcoming Spanish elections are looking like bringing a right wing government which tend to play hardline on Gibraltar.


I think the gloves come off once (or if) the UK exits the EU. At that point vested European interests have a say in ratifying any new trade deal and relationship, things like Gibraltar and fishing rights will at that point come to the fore.

Brexit has been relatively straight forward so far, compared to what comes next....
 
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zkojq
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:53 pm

Just when you thought Corbyn couldn't be more useless. :banghead:

LABOUR BREXIT LATEST: Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman explains that the party only supports a referendum on a "damaging Tory Brexit". If Labour takes power, he says, it will negotiate a better Brexit, which won't need a referendum.


https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status ... 0209516544

Richard28 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
my vote for Brexit was not based on a desire to close Britain off to the world


KLDC10 wrote:
why you insist on bleating about it from New Zealand.


no comment.


:lol: In fairness, at least he doesn't seem to believe that Canada/Australia/NewZealand are still under UK government control, unlike one of our other learnered brexiteers here. :)

KLDC10 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
my vote for Brexit was not based on a desire to close Britain off to the world


KLDC10 wrote:
why you insist on bleating about it from New Zealand.


no comment.


There's no contradiction here. New Zealand is unaffected by Brexit, so I don't understand the hysteria.

To be fair, after throwing NZ under the bus during EC negotiations in the 70s and doing absolutely nothing to stop France blackmailing NZ with an EC-wide economic embargo unless we freed the the Rainbow Warrior murderers, Britain was pretty quick to come begging for a trade deal. ;)


FYI as a French citizen I am by no means unaffected by Brexit.


A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
I don’t think either side is truely ready, things will inevitably slip thru the cracks that no one would have thought of


How true is this, many things will fall thru the cracks with a hard Brexit. Remember you wanted it......



Yep I certaintly do, how the EU left TM out to dry when the WA did not get thru parliament. All because the EU would not compromise on a time limit to the backstop which in theory would have lasted until the new future trade agreement was put in place.


The solution to ending the backstop is a workable Irish border arrangement. That brexiteers have no idea what this will look like (other than imaginary electronic solutions) is not the fault of the EU.

Microchipping everyone maybe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NRNzFcoA2U


This is what I don't understand; The UK proposed the backstop to try and ensure peace and prevent a hard border. All 27 EU members agreed to this. Then, many months later when it became politically unpopular, the UK started demanding that the backstop be removed or be time limited (essentially ripping up the Good Friday Agreement). The EU said that the GFA must be honored, refused to throw Ireland - one of their members - under the bus. And now you're mad at the EU for being inflexible.

Dutchy wrote:
GFA can only be honored if either NI will stay in the CU or the UK will stay in. There is no other solution to this.


Well, you could force Ireland to have a referendum on EU membership. :rotfl:

LJ wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Dull it won't be!


Let's be honest, even Trump cannot match the entertainment value of the entire Brexit saga. It's like watching a TV series and I sincerely hope that we get a "behind the scenes" documentary in a few years.

:checkmark: Even just the way that John Bercow speaks is both hilariously entertaining and straight-out brilliant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3ndvW1yeX0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6X5F7jhQZd8
First to fly the 787-9
 
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zkojq
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:10 pm

With the sharks circling closer and closer to Theresa May, who would be most likely to become the next Prime Minister? Gove, Leadsom, JRM, David Davis, BoJo, Dominic Raab or Ian Duncan Smith? Not a very promising bunch, unfortunately. I wonder who of those would do the worst damage to the country? I'm split between JRM and David Davis for quite different reasons.

Some well spoken words from Donald Tusk

Appeal to EP: You should be open to a long extension, if the UK wishes to rethink its strategy. 6 million people signed the petition, 1 million marched. They may not feel sufficiently represented by UK Parliament but they must feel represented by you. Because they are Europeans.


https://twitter.com/eucopresident/statu ... 5474314240



Quite the introduction:
The conservative MP Ben Bradley is in the House of Commons. He voted to remain, then became a Brexiteer, then voted against the deal, then voted for the deal, then said he’d struggled to back the deal again but now says he will back the deal.


https://www.indy100.com/article/krishna ... ey-8841616
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:43 pm

zkojq wrote:
With the sharks circling closer and closer to Theresa May


She's now effectively promising to fall on her sword if MPs support her deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47725529
Theresa May has promised Tory MPs she will stand down if they back her EU withdrawal deal.


The issue is, can she bring it back to the House? At the start of the indicative vote debate, The Speaker reiterated that it cannot be brought before the House again in unaltered form. One possibility, depending how the indicative votes pan out this evening, is for the deal to include a confirmatory referendum.

The rest of this week will be very interesting.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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CPH-R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:54 pm

If there wasn't already a simmering anger over how the Tories have handled this, it's going to get a lot worse in the future. The Guardian's diplomatic editor has summed it up expertly:
A consequence of May's likely resignation is that the unresolved question of Britain's future relations with Europe, to be negotiated in phase 2 of talks, will largely be decided on hustings in a Tory Party leadership contest. Fewer than 120,000 deciding on behalf of 46m.

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/stat ... 2183213056
 
A101
Posts: 856
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:31 pm

zkojq wrote:

Just when you thought Corbyn couldn't be more useless. :banghead:

LABOUR BREXIT LATEST: Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman explains that the party only supports a referendum on a "damaging Tory Brexit". If Labour takes power, he says, it will negotiate a better Brexit, which won't need a referendum.


https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status ... 0209516544


Yeah agree, he’s flogging a dead horse on that because simply will not negotiate in good faith

zkojq wrote:
:lol: In fairness, at least he doesn't seem to believe that Canada/Australia/NewZealand are still under UK government control, unlike one of our other learnered brexiteers here. :)


Ohh cryptic. Do tell


zkojq wrote:
The solution to ending the backstop is a workable Irish border arrangement. That brexiteers have no idea what this will look like (other than imaginary electronic solutions) is not the fault of the EU.


That’s because a future trade relationship has not been worked out yet


zkojq wrote:
This is what I don't understand; The UK proposed the backstop to try and ensure peace and prevent a hard border. All 27 EU members agreed to this. Then, many months later when it became politically unpopular, the UK started demanding that the backstop be removed or be time limited (essentially ripping up the Good Friday Agreement). The EU said that the GFA must be honored, refused to throw Ireland - one of their members - under the bus. And now you're mad at the EU for being inflexible.


How wrong you are, the actual genesis of the backstop was in a working paper by Michel Barnier 8 November 2017, which said

“It consequently seems essential for the UK to commit to ensuring that a hard border on the island of Ireland is avoided, including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence from those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which are (or may be in the future) necessary for meaningful North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:34 pm

Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 9123
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:01 pm

Parliament voted down tonight:
> No-Deal Brexit (B)
> Common Market 2.0/Norway Plus (D)
> Norway Option (H)
> Customs Union (J)
> Labour’s Brexit Plan (K)
> No-Deal Emergency Brake (L)
> Second Referendum (M)
> Malthouse Plan B (O)

Brilliant, all motions turned down by this Parliament, so in conclusion: so what do you want???????!!!!!!!!!!!

So nothing has changed in the past 25years.

We'll see on Friday if TM's ultimate self-sacrifice is enough to get a positive vote on WA. Then the way is open for a Brexiteer Prime Minister like Boris Johnson.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
Posts: 4739
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:08 pm

Insane!!!!!!! None of the options got a majority. To be honest, why would the EU bother with the UK anymore? The UK has shown it's totally incapable of telling what it wants and cannot even choose 1 out of 8 options. What else do the MPs want?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47728333
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 9123
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:09 pm

zkojq wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
GFA can only be honored if either NI will stay in the CU or the UK will stay in. There is no other solution to this.


Well, you could force Ireland to have a referendum on EU membership. :rotfl:


Ah, Jacob Rees-Rogg's 1850 Brittian's wet dream, forcing their will on other countries. Britania rules the waves............
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
KLDC10
Posts: 1402
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:17 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Parliament voted down tonight:
> No-Deal Brexit (B)
> Common Market 2.0/Norway Plus (D)
> Norway Option (H)
> Customs Union (J)
> Labour’s Brexit Plan (K)
> No-Deal Emergency Brake (L)
> Second Referendum (M)
> Malthouse Plan B (O)

Brilliant, all motions turned down by this Parliament, so in conclusion: so what do you want???????!!!!!!!!!!!

So nothing has changed in the past 25years.

We'll see on Friday if TM's ultimate self-sacrifice is enough to get a positive vote on WA. Then the way is open for a Brexiteer Prime Minister like Boris Johnson.


I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
737/738/739/744/748/752/763/772/789
A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/A346/A359
Q400/E170/E175/E190/CS300
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:27 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Parliament voted down tonight:
> No-Deal Brexit (B)
> Common Market 2.0/Norway Plus (D)
> Norway Option (H)
> Customs Union (J)
> Labour’s Brexit Plan (K)
> No-Deal Emergency Brake (L)
> Second Referendum (M)
> Malthouse Plan B (O)

Brilliant, all motions turned down by this Parliament, so in conclusion: so what do you want???????!!!!!!!!!!!

So nothing has changed in the past 25years.

We'll see on Friday if TM's ultimate self-sacrifice is enough to get a positive vote on WA. Then the way is open for a Brexiteer Prime Minister like Boris Johnson.


I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.


The hole Brexit thing is hilarious if the consequences weren't so serious. So your statement can't be qualified in another matter than complete and utter bullocks, I'm afraid.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:28 pm

KLDC10 wrote:

I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.


It is a two stage process to attempt to whittle down the more popular options, and may involve some form of ranking vote next week.

That may help give a better indication of the feeling of the house on Monday.
 
KLDC10
Posts: 1402
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:32 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.


The hole Brexit thing is hilarious if the consequences weren't so serious. So your statement can't be qualified in another matter than complete and utter bullocks, I'm afraid.[/quote]

Are you in a particularly bad mood this evening?

Richard28 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:

I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.


It is a two stage process to attempt to whittle down the more popular options, and may involve some form of ranking vote next week.

That may help give a better indication of the feeling of the house on Monday.


I think that the only thing this process will strengthen is the case for allowing Government to maintain control over Parliamentary Business and also highlight the importance of Party Whips. Left to their own devices and given a free vote, MPs are a disparate bunch. Even if they agree on an outcome (which clearly they don't in this instance), they often don't agree on how to get there.
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
737/738/739/744/748/752/763/772/789
A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/A346/A359
Q400/E170/E175/E190/CS300
 
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Aesma
Posts: 11536
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:47 pm

Richard28 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.


It is a two stage process to attempt to whittle down the more popular options, and may involve some form of ranking vote next week.

That may help give a better indication of the feeling of the house on Monday.


Ranking should have been done today, this was pointless.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Klaus
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Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:16 pm

Aesma wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.


It is a two stage process to attempt to whittle down the more popular options, and may involve some form of ranking vote next week.

That may help give a better indication of the feeling of the house on Monday.


Ranking should have been done today, this was pointless.

It did get done! The customs union and second referendum proposals came out on top!
 
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scbriml
Posts: 17133
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:17 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Parliament voted down tonight:
> No-Deal Brexit (B)
> Common Market 2.0/Norway Plus (D)
> Norway Option (H)
> Customs Union (J)
> Labour’s Brexit Plan (K)
> No-Deal Emergency Brake (L)
> Second Referendum (M)
> Malthouse Plan B (O)

Brilliant, all motions turned down by this Parliament, so in conclusion: so what do you want???????!!!!!!!!!!!


Not forgetting these were indicative votes covering all options, a couple of which now look like they could be more serious contenders. The two narrowest defeats were for a Customs Union (lost by just eight votes) and a Confirmatory Referendum (lost by 27 votes). Thus, indications are that in slightly different circumstances one or other of these options might gain more support.

Given the House will now be sitting on Friday, the expectation is that the Government will try again for MV3. They will need to somehow circumvent the Speaker's ruling that they can't put it before the House again unless it's changed. Even with the ERG caving in, the DUP are still adamant that they will not vote for it, so MV3 will be a lot closer than the two previous votes. It's still expected to fail if the DUP don't support it.

KLDC10 wrote:
I think it's hilarious that all of their self-aggrandizing efforts to take control, fueled by nothing but their own hubris, have come to naught.


Still too early to say. This was just part one.

Richard28 wrote:
It is a two stage process to attempt to whittle down the more popular options, and may involve some form of ranking vote next week.

That may help give a better indication of the feeling of the house on Monday.


Especially if MV3 happens on Friday and is voted down again.

KLDC10 wrote:
I think that the only thing this process will strengthen is the case for allowing Government to maintain control over Parliamentary Business and also highlight the importance of Party Whips. Left to their own devices and given a free vote, MPs are a disparate bunch. Even if they agree on an outcome (which clearly they don't in this instance), they often don't agree on how to get there.


We'll see. This isn't even close to being finished yet.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21179
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:20 pm

A101 wrote:
How wrong you are, the actual genesis of the backstop was in a working paper by Michel Barnier 8 November 2017, which said

“It consequently seems essential for the UK to commit to ensuring that a hard border on the island of Ireland is avoided, including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence from those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which are (or may be in the future) necessary for meaningful North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

Nope. That's indeed the EU proposal which the DUP hated so very much (because of the then still pretty soft border across the Irish Sea which the DUP scrupulously upholds when it's about other matters!) that May caved in and asked the EU to extend the EU rule compliance zone to the entire UK – voilá, the Backstop!

It was the UK government's idea to appease the DUP, not an EU proposal. Well, not exactly one of their most thought-out plans ever, but the bar isn't particularly high on that account...!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:26 pm

scbriml wrote:
Even with the ERG caving in, the DUP are still adamant that they will not vote for it, so MV3 will be a lot closer than the two previous votes. It's still expected to fail if the DUP don't support it.

I'm pretty sure the DUP is giddily observing how the bribe for their votes is inflating by the minute...

1 billion? No, this time they won't be bought quite that cheaply...!
 
A101
Posts: 856
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:55 pm

Klaus wrote:
Nope. That's indeed the EU proposal which the DUP hated so very much (because of the then still pretty soft border across the Irish Sea which the DUP scrupulously upholds when it's about other matters!) that May caved in and asked the EU to extend the EU rule compliance zone to the entire UK – voilá, the Backstop!

It was the UK government's idea to appease the DUP, not an EU proposal. Well, not exactly one of their most thought-out plans ever, but the bar isn't particularly high on that account...!


So what your actually saying I’m right, it was the EU who originally proposed the position that NI remain part of the CU to ensure that regulatory control remains, the DUP opposed it they did not want to be under a different regulatory control to the rest of the UK as a majority of goods for trade go to the UK which then would have required tariffs placed on trade between NI and the greater UK which was why TM said it had to be all encompassing to UK sovereign territory
 
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Dieuwer
Posts: 1269
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:38 am

I have said it before, UK parliament is ONLY capable of voting “No” on ANYTHING tabled. So, this Friday I expect them to vote “No” as well.
That means that in two weeks from now, the UK will crash out of the EU.

End.Of.Story.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 17133
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:58 am

Dieuwer wrote:
I have said it before, UK parliament is ONLY capable of voting “No” on ANYTHING tabled. So, this Friday I expect them to vote “No” as well.
That means that in two weeks from now, the UK will crash out of the EU.

End.Of.Story.


Not at all. Parliament has made clear and the PM reiterated at the Dispatch Box yesterday, no-deal Brexit is not happening unless Parliament approves it (it's voted strongly against it multiple times).

So, in the scenario that MV3 is defeated on Friday a number of options are in play. If round two of indicative votes on Monday fails to produce a clear consensus, then Government will pretty much have to give Parliament three stark choices: 1 - No-Deal Brexit; 2 - ask EU for a long extension in order to redo Brexit (probably resulting in a GE); 3 - Revoke A50.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21179
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:03 am

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Nope. That's indeed the EU proposal which the DUP hated so very much (because of the then still pretty soft border across the Irish Sea which the DUP scrupulously upholds when it's about other matters!) that May caved in and asked the EU to extend the EU rule compliance zone to the entire UK – voilá, the Backstop!

It was the UK government's idea to appease the DUP, not an EU proposal. Well, not exactly one of their most thought-out plans ever, but the bar isn't particularly high on that account...!


So what your actually saying I’m right, it was the EU who originally proposed the position that NI remain part of the CU to ensure that regulatory control remains, the DUP opposed it they did not want to be under a different regulatory control to the rest of the UK as a majority of goods for trade go to the UK which then would have required tariffs placed on trade between NI and the greater UK which was why TM said it had to be all encompassing to UK sovereign territory

Meaning the Backstop was a UK request!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:06 am

scbriml wrote:
2 - ask EU for a long extension in order to redo Brexit (probably resulting in a GE);

+ in one european election rammed through on shortest-possible notice, too!
 
A101
Posts: 856
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:49 am

Klaus wrote:
Meaning the Backstop was a UK request!


No not at all, that was not the position of the UK prior to the EU's working paper on 8 Nov 2017, the UK position was "We do not want a hard border in Ireland (as did the EU), and we will achieve that by having a very close economic relationship to the EU in the future." i.e. outside the CU/SM as part of the future trade relationship. it was the EU position the NI remains in the CU/SM until an acceptable future trade agreement takes place with no time limit. Stupidly under pressure from the DUP TM agreed as long as the entire UK was part of it for reason I mention prior. the original position was not a UK request.

What TM did wrong was not take it to parliament and put to a vote before she signed the bloody thing, all this could have been averted if not for her remain bias to the CU/SM
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:48 am

scbriml wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I have said it before, UK parliament is ONLY capable of voting “No” on ANYTHING tabled. So, this Friday I expect them to vote “No” as well.
That means that in two weeks from now, the UK will crash out of the EU.

End.Of.Story.


Not at all. Parliament has made clear and the PM reiterated at the Dispatch Box yesterday, no-deal Brexit is not happening unless Parliament approves it (it's voted strongly against it multiple times).

So, in the scenario that MV3 is defeated on Friday a number of options are in play. If round two of indicative votes on Monday fails to produce a clear consensus, then Government will pretty much have to give Parliament three stark choices: 1 - No-Deal Brexit; 2 - ask EU for a long extension in order to redo Brexit (probably resulting in a GE); 3 - Revoke A50.


Again, to avoid the hard Brexit, the parliament needs to vote for another option. Otherwise the door closes on the 12th April. And politically that is the best play for Brexiteers, force the EU to throw the UK out.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:43 am

A101 wrote:
all this could have been averted if not for her remain bias to the CU/SM


Speaking as a remainer myself I find this very hard to
Follow.

May was never a staunch European, and her record in the home office is hardly a positive one.

Since becoming Prime Minister she has ironically taken advice from the ERG at almost every turn. Her infamous red lines were as hard as you can get - I have seen no “remainer bias” there at all.

Had she had bias towards CU/SM from the start and bought a majority with her we might not be where we are today.
 
Bostrom
Posts: 761
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:25 am

scbriml wrote:
Not at all. Parliament has made clear and the PM reiterated at the Dispatch Box yesterday, no-deal Brexit is not happening unless Parliament approves it (it's voted strongly against it multiple times).

So, in the scenario that MV3 is defeated on Friday a number of options are in play. If round two of indicative votes on Monday fails to produce a clear consensus, then Government will pretty much have to give Parliament three stark choices: 1 - No-Deal Brexit; 2 - ask EU for a long extension in order to redo Brexit (probably resulting in a GE); 3 - Revoke A50.


As has been said before, if Parliament want to avoid a no deal, they have to vote for an alternative, like approve a deal. Simply stating that they do not want a no deal Brexit will not prevent it.

It's a bit like parliament is sitting in a bus rolling towards the famous cliff edge. They can debate and discuss and vote to rule out falling over the cliff edge, but to actually prevent it from happening they need to do something. Like turning the steering wheel or pressing the brakes.

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