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sbworcs
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:25 pm

There is quite a bit of talk about politicians upholding manifesto pledges or sticking to their words etc. Strange how they only do it over certain things and not ALL of them.

I still think that the whole issue of Brexit started and continues as a result of the Conservative party trying to protect the Conservative party rather than what is best for the whole of the UK

According to the MP code of conduct Members have a general duty to act in the interests of the nation as a whole; and a special duty to their constituents. If my MP votes for Brexit (which he did) and I end up worse off (likley) has he then not acted in my interest and broken the code of conduct?
The best way forwards is upwards!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:22 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Germany says economic growth will fall by 1% if there’s a no deal brexit. Better get the WA re opened!


A single 1%. Even with a WA the UK economy suffers more.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:29 pm

Olddog wrote:
Image



That’s the end result of TM WA, tied to the EU with no voice.
 
kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:02 pm

The situation is no less confused than it was a week ago; in a way, probably even moreso. The UK parliament has voted to say that it does not want a no-deal Brexit, yet the PM has now said that she does not want the backstop which the UK, itself, previously said it was willing to agree to and has been gone back to the EU, only to be told - in no uncertain terms - that there must be a backstop. Where does that leave us. To me, it comes down to a staring competition, which may well last to the end of March, with both sides waiting to see who blinks first.

The problem is, of course, that May is caught between a rock and a hard place; the parliament says that she must not have a no-deal Brexit, for reasons which are pretty obvious (to all except hardline Brexiteers). On the other side, of course, she has her own party and government, backed by the DUP. It's pretty much impossible to satisfy both sides; the DUP's Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson has said that ANY agreement that keeps the UK

The DUP, of course, ignores the fact that the majority of the NI population voted to remain, but that's really only secondary to them, as indeed are the economic interests of NI. It's unionism and damn the consequences. There is, I think, another aspect to this, which has not really been commented on widely - an elephant in the room - which should perhaps be addressed. Quite apart from the fact that the Tory govt is supported by the DUP, there is a considerably body of opinion in the Tory party which is strongly anti-Irish and views Ireland in a rather condescending, supercilious manner. So, it's one thing to view to be forced into a course of action by the EU (for that, in many Brexiteers' minds, read "the Germans"), it's quite another to have that done by Ireland or the Irish. Obviously, they won't say this publicly, but I think that there is an aspect to the Brexiteers' psychology which is perhaps being overlooked and for Britain to be forced into agreeing to a backstop, it would effectively be perceived as Britain being forced by the EU to surrender to the Irish. Of course, the Tory party is also the "Conservative and Unionist" party, so that is another factor, but there would be a considerable body of opinion within the Tory party which would find it difficult to accept a solution which involved a concession to Ireland, particularly where it involved the sovereignty of NI. And here again, they are seeing NI as simply a territory, without any consideration of the interests of its population.

It's a right mess, but I wonder if the EU is fully aware of the psychology here; perhaps it may take the view that "we don't care" or "not our problem". And it also has to be said that we're at the stage where a reasonable outcome, which protects the interests of NI and its population might well bring down the UK Government. It's hard to imagine a mutually agreeable solution at this stage.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:53 pm

Here is what I find funny, when Bojo said they could have an electronic border he was called a loon, then someone went and negotiated a back-stop agreement with the EU that no one in either party wants, now there is talk about an electronic border.

Getting very interesting as we approach the March deadline.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:21 pm

par13del wrote:
Here is what I find funny, when Bojo said they could have an electronic border he was called a loon, then someone went and negotiated a back-stop agreement with the EU that no one in either party wants, now there is talk about an electronic border.

Getting very interesting as we approach the March deadline.



Why's that funny? It's the same idiots from the same faction of the same party pushing the same unworkable idea as before...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
jcancel
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:06 pm

You got it. David Cameron promised the ref so he could become PM. https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... cy/488654/

It’s easy, in retrospect, to characterize David Cameron’s decision to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership as a colossal blunder, at least from the prime minister’s perspective. The idea was reportedly conceived at a pizza restaurant at Chicago O’Hare airport, an inauspicious place to hatch plans of international consequence. Cameron, by many accounts, promised to stage the vote not because he believed in it, or took it especially seriously, or felt the public was demanding it, but because he wanted to appease right-wing “euroskeptics” in his party ahead of the 2015 election. It worked. Cameron won that election, and soon found himself campaigning for Britain to remain in the European Union. Then a majority of Britons voted to do just the opposite. A disgraced David Cameron now finds himself without a job and his country temporarily without its bearings, in a jolted world. Blunders don’t get much bigger.


sbworcs wrote:
I still think that the whole issue of Brexit started and continues as a result of the Conservative party trying to protect the Conservative party rather than what is best for the whole of the UK
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:14 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:

Why's that funny? It's the same idiots from the same faction of the same party pushing the same unworkable idea as before...


Yep, the same technology that has not been implemented anywhere worldwide..... or even invented yet!!

ERG cling to it as it is the only “answer” they have....
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:25 pm

jcancel wrote:
You got it. David Cameron promised the ref so he could become PM. https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... cy/488654/

It’s easy, in retrospect, to characterize David Cameron’s decision to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership as a colossal blunder, at least from the prime minister’s perspective. The idea was reportedly conceived at a pizza restaurant at Chicago O’Hare airport, an inauspicious place to hatch plans of international consequence. Cameron, by many accounts, promised to stage the vote not because he believed in it, or took it especially seriously, or felt the public was demanding it, but because he wanted to appease right-wing “euroskeptics” in his party ahead of the 2015 election. It worked. Cameron won that election, and soon found himself campaigning for Britain to remain in the European Union. Then a majority of Britons voted to do just the opposite. A disgraced David Cameron now finds himself without a job and his country temporarily without its bearings, in a jolted world. Blunders don’t get much bigger.


sbworcs wrote:
I still think that the whole issue of Brexit started and continues as a result of the Conservative party trying to protect the Conservative party rather than what is best for the whole of the UK



Yes I have seen that article before, as I said before Cameron didn’t do his due diligence and paid the price.

From the same article.
For Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, the issue is less the idea of the vote than the low bar officials established for Britain to secede from a union it’s been part of since 1973. Brexit required merely a simple majority of “leave” votes among the fraction of eligible voters who turned out at the polls.

 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:45 pm

A101 wrote:
[Yes I have seen that article before, as I said before Cameron didn’t do his due diligence and paid the price.


No, the UK is going to pay the price (and already does) for Brexit-vote.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:51 pm

kaitak wrote:
It's a right mess, but I wonder if the EU is fully aware of the psychology here; perhaps it may take the view that "we don't care" or "not our problem".

I think it's mostly: "Well, that's tough for you. Now get over it."

And it also has to be said that we're at the stage where a reasonable outcome, which protects the interests of NI and its population might well bring down the UK Government. It's hard to imagine a mutually agreeable solution at this stage.

No, it isn't. There is exactly one such solution and it's negotiated and completed.

The UK is free to ratify it or to shoot its own brains out with a no deal Brexit.

I'm really tired of the UK jerking us around for their own amusement and childish nonsense. It's time to grow up and to join the adults.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:09 am

Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:21 am

A101 wrote:
Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.

It's a game of chess, however, so we keep wondering what Theresa May is doing with those cards.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:48 am

It will most likely be made into a movie or mini-series for tv
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:43 am

A101 wrote:
Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.


Sad, it means we still have to deal with those Brexiteers.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:00 am

Arion640 wrote:
Well the EU have to protect the interests of their member state Ireland. They won’t be doing that very well if there’s a hard, no deal brexit.


Parliament has already prepared the ground for rejecting a no-deal Brexit.

Given the EU show no sign of shifting from their position (why should they?) and that Parliament has already rejected the negotiated deal, in two weeks’ time, the Government will most likely be faced with a stark choice - request an extension of Article 50 (I’m struggling to see why the EU would agree to that) or revoke Article 50.

All other options will have been rejected by Parliament. That’s taking back control and Parliamentary sovereignty in action. Isn’t that what Brexiteers wanted?
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:04 am

The wish of the people needs to be respected and if the EU only allows the hard Brexit, so be it. It would kill democracy if it comes to the great betrayal.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:10 am

A101 wrote:
Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.


That would be an unsatisfied outcome for everyone.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:21 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.


That would be an unsatisfied outcome for everyone.

The Brexiteers have made cristal clear they don’t want to be a part of the EU. And I don’t want them back. It’s like a couple which decided to divorce, but still acting to be a couple (obvious without the “benefits”)
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:26 am

That would probably also not work, as many MPs demand "not one penny for the EU" and revoking means paying your membership fees again. Imho the UK will simply drop out in a Hard Brexit.

There simply is no deal that would make it in the British parliament.

1. not the hard Brexit
2. but not being bound to the EU
3. no backstop but still remain in the CU and keep the open border to Ireland
4. full access to the common market but complete freedom to enter FTAs with other countries
5. full access to the common market but not having to follow EU legislation or jurisdiction
6. no longer pay money to the EU
7. full control of immigration from EU countries

And with the leaders of both major parties being totally unwilling or unable to speak honestly about the options and preferring to promise more fairies and unicorns, I do not have hope that there will be a solution, other than the UK more or less dropping out in a hard Brexit by accident or incompetence.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:56 am

Image

I'll just leave this here.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:43 am

Theresa May seems to be using this "negotiation period" for purposes other than negotiation.

Reported in various papers this morning, she is attempting to offer cash to (bribe) around 20 Labour MP's to back her Withdrawal Agreement.

Image

She has shown past form in this, bribing the DUP to stay in power, and now this....

Anyone who can now describe the UK as a pillar of democracy is deluded.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:12 am

JJJ wrote:
Image

I'll just leave this here.


With Option C, it's worth bearing in mind that May is immune from being removed by her own party until December, so she will only go if she loses a vote of no confidence in Parliament (happened recently as a stunt by Labour that failed and Sir Vince Cable has indicated the Lib Dems won't back another VNC for the foreseeable) or if she resigns.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:20 am

marcelh wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.


That would be an unsatisfied outcome for everyone.

The Brexiteers have made cristal clear they don’t want to be a part of the EU. And I don’t want them back. It’s like a couple which decided to divorce, but still acting to be a couple (obvious without the “benefits”)



Well its funny you say that, I know a couple who were married for 20 years and fought like cats and dogs during their marriage . Short story they divorced and to my surprise get on better now than anytime when they were married, go figure.

They are doing the friends with benefits thing tho
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:37 am

A101 wrote:
They are doing the friends with benefits thing tho


to stay in that analogy, FWB status is illegal.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:42 am

A101 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

That would be an unsatisfied outcome for everyone.

The Brexiteers have made cristal clear they don’t want to be a part of the EU. And I don’t want them back. It’s like a couple which decided to divorce, but still acting to be a couple (obvious without the “benefits”)



Well its funny you say that, I know a couple who were married for 20 years and fought like cats and dogs during their marriage . Short story they divorced and to my surprise get on better now than anytime when they were married, go figure.

They are doing the friends with benefits thing tho


They probably didn't drag the whole divorce thing by making contradicting demands, then.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:06 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
They are doing the friends with benefits thing tho


to stay in that analogy, FWB status is illegal.

best regards
Thomas


I actually wasn't trying to make an analogy, just a quip about a divorced couple nothing more nothing less.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:11 am

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Well the EU have to protect the interests of their member state Ireland. They won’t be doing that very well if there’s a hard, no deal brexit.


Parliament has already prepared the ground for rejecting a no-deal Brexit.

Given the EU show no sign of shifting from their position (why should they?) and that Parliament has already rejected the negotiated deal, in two weeks’ time, the Government will most likely be faced with a stark choice - request an extension of Article 50 (I’m struggling to see why the EU would agree to that) or revoke Article 50.

All other options will have been rejected by Parliament. That’s taking back control and Parliamentary sovereignty in action. Isn’t that what Brexiteers wanted?


What good would extending A50 be? You’re just going to be kicking the can down the road.

By the way that amendement in Parliament rejecting a no deal brexit...wasn’t legally binding, just like the EU referendum of 2016 don’t forget!!
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:37 am

Arion640 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Well the EU have to protect the interests of their member state Ireland. They won’t be doing that very well if there’s a hard, no deal brexit.


Parliament has already prepared the ground for rejecting a no-deal Brexit.

Given the EU show no sign of shifting from their position (why should they?) and that Parliament has already rejected the negotiated deal, in two weeks’ time, the Government will most likely be faced with a stark choice - request an extension of Article 50 (I’m struggling to see why the EU would agree to that) or revoke Article 50.

All other options will have been rejected by Parliament. That’s taking back control and Parliamentary sovereignty in action. Isn’t that what Brexiteers wanted?


What good would extending A50 be? You’re just going to be kicking the can down the road.

By the way that amendement in Parliament rejecting a no deal brexit...wasn’t legally binding, just like the EU referendum of 2016 don’t forget!!


And as the Hard Brexit is the default outcome, it can never be ruled out, otherwise the EU could force the UK to accept any deal. The hard Brexit always was and always will be the cleanest option.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:11 am

Arion640 wrote:

What good would extending A50 be? You’re just going to be kicking the can down the road.


It's known that there is not enough parliamentary time to get through the necessary legislation assuming the WA passes, let alone should it not.

It is pretty much a given that A50 will need to be extended, it is just not politically possible for TM to admit this currently. You will note in recent speeches she has stopped forever mentioning March 29th.... there is a reason for that.

Cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt has also suggested an extension is necessary this morning....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47069433
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:51 am

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

What good would extending A50 be? You’re just going to be kicking the can down the road.


It's known that there is not enough parliamentary time to get through the necessary legislation assuming the WA passes, let alone should it not.

It is pretty much a given that A50 will need to be extended, it is just not politically possible for TM to admit this currently. You will note in recent speeches she has stopped forever mentioning March 29th.... there is a reason for that.

Cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt has also suggested an extension is necessary this morning....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47069433


You probably agree with me Richard. Extending A50 is just kicking the can down the road. It would be pointless, only to end up in the same position in a few months time. Unless something gives, from the EU or the UK.

Considering the news this morning of Italy in recession and German economic growth slowing, it will be interesting to see if the EU27 governments put pressure on the EU to open up the WA again. A hard brexit isn’t going to help anyones economy.
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:03 pm

Well the good thing is that the UK is still doing well, why the EU is deep into a recession. So maybe it is really better to get out for the UK, so the UK does not have to pay for the failures of Italy, France or Germany.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:22 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.


That would be an unsatisfied outcome for everyone.


Not for me. It's what I want to happen.

The question then is how to fix UK politics and re-educate the people about the good the EU does...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:23 pm

Arion640 wrote:
What good would extending A50 be? You’re just going to be kicking the can down the road.


The only way which an extension of Article 50 would be viable is if a deal is close and more time is needed to thrash out the details, otherwise it's as you say, kicking the can down the road (something this government seems to be good at in other areas). The EU probably won't care whether it's in our statute book or not after 29th March 2019.

Arion640 wrote:
Considering the news this morning of Italy in recession and German economic growth slowing, it will be interesting to see if the EU27 governments put pressure on the EU to open up the WA again. A hard brexit isn’t going to help anyones economy.


The person who has recently said the EU should try to avoid a hard border is the Polish PM: http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/4041 ... -Polish-PM

Otherwise, everyone is remaining silent. I see nobody else joined the Polish minister who broke ranks the other week claiming Ireland needs to offer concessions.

seahawk wrote:
The hard Brexit always was and always will be the cleanest option.


I shouldn't argue with trolls, but a hard Brexit is the worst option of them all, period.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:30 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Well I’m expecting them to revoke Article 50 a week or so before the end date, Parliment has shown its hand at the poker table.


That would be an unsatisfied outcome for everyone.


Not for me. It's what I want to happen.

The question then is how to fix UK politics and re-educate the people about the good the EU does...


Quite.

I'm still of the belief that when it comes to crunch time May is more likely to cancel Brexit (providing Parliament backs it or through a second referendum) than go for a hard, no-deal Brexit. The Brexiteers won't like it and some of the contingency measures since taken by firms to move (easyJet reregistered 100+ aircraft in Austria, RR moving certification to Germany, banks moving assets/people to the likes of Dublin and Frankfurt) aren't going to be reversed quickly (if at all), but at some point May will have to decide what is better for the country given what we know now and if all options have been exhausted.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:39 pm

seahawk wrote:
Well the good thing is that the UK is still doing well, why the EU is deep into a recession. So maybe it is really better to get out for the UK, so the UK does not have to pay for the failures of Italy, France or Germany.


ROTFL, that's one of your better ones so far, seahawk. ;)

I agree that Brexit will have to be postposed... it's getting ever more clear from the:
A- Lack of any further reference to the set date by the PM in her recent speeches: the words '29th of March' have evidently been deleted from May's speechbot
B- Hunt being sent out to start to communicate timidly on the 'possiblilty of an extension under certain conditions' as the first senior cabinet member doing so

Because:
1- lack of time to vote, ratify and implement any WA should it be reached, both in the UK as well as the EU27,
2- lack of preparedness on the UKs side to face the immediate consequences should no WA be reached
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:42 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:

I shouldn't argue with trolls, but a hard Brexit is the worst option of them all, period.


It is the most painful, but not the worst, as both sides can plan the future freely afterwards and can offer planing security.

Compare it to the UK revoking Article 50 and a sizeable group in parliament (and UKIP) devoting themselves to deliver Brexit after the next election. Nobody can make any long term plans. Or the UK signing a deal that they did not want to sign. Next election will then bring promises to re-negotiate, get a better deal or do the hard Brexit.

there are good reasons why Norway rejected the idea of the UK joining EFTA, because EFTA is stable, which it would not be with the UK in it.

Sure deal supported by a clear majority in the UK would be better, but there is no such deal.
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:47 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Considering the news this morning of Italy in recession and German economic growth slowing, it will be interesting to see if the EU27 governments put pressure on the EU to open up the WA again. A hard brexit isn’t going to help anyones economy.


I happily take some economical headwind just to see how the Brexiteers are coping with the results of a Hard Brexit. A very interesting political and economic experiment
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:09 pm

marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Considering the news this morning of Italy in recession and German economic growth slowing, it will be interesting to see if the EU27 governments put pressure on the EU to open up the WA again. A hard brexit isn’t going to help anyones economy.


I happily take some economical headwind just to see how the Brexiteers are coping with the results of a Hard Brexit. A very interesting political and economic experiment


Life will go on. Recessions come and go. Providing i’m alive, able and well, i’ll be getting up for work as normal on March 30th.
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Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 2746
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:17 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Life will go on. Recessions come and go. Providing i’m alive, able and well, i’ll be getting up for work as normal on March 30th.


I can 100% guarantee that I will not be getting up for work on the 30th March like I did on the 29th March...... it's a Saturday.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3039
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:31 pm

seahawk wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:

I shouldn't argue with trolls, but a hard Brexit is the worst option of them all, period.


It is the most painful, but not the worst, as both sides can plan the future freely afterwards and can offer planing security.

Compare it to the UK revoking Article 50 and a sizeable group in parliament (and UKIP) devoting themselves to deliver Brexit after the next election. Nobody can make any long term plans. Or the UK signing a deal that they did not want to sign. Next election will then bring promises to re-negotiate, get a better deal or do the hard Brexit.

there are good reasons why Norway rejected the idea of the UK joining EFTA, because EFTA is stable, which it would not be with the UK in it.

Sure deal supported by a clear majority in the UK would be better, but there is no such deal.


I agree with your analysis on the UK being caught in a state of permanent renegotiation after Brexit, but I feel this is going to be the outcome regardless, including no deal.

It's a given that any outcome is going to be unacceptable to enough people to seek immediate changes to it: labour will bring the CU membership back up the day they come to power, remainers will keep pushing for a Norway style status, Brexiteers will always find a link between the EU and the UK that they will like to cut (anybody told them yet the ECHR is NOT the ECJ and the UK will be subject to its rulings still, for instance?), and don't forget that in any case an all important FTA needs to be agreed to as well still, so rather than end the discussion on Europe with Brexit, the UK's relationship will most certainly dominate British politics for the rest of next decade.

All because all to many British politicians suffer from a national identity crisis, not being comfortable with the (deminished) status of their once very great country in today's world, combined with an empoverished population dreaming of those good old days, not because they care about the status of their country like their Conservative and millionaire leaders do, but because of the better living standards they had back then (which deteriorated due to those same Britsh politicians previously failed attempts of making the UK great again via a social race to the bottom).
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3039
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:36 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Life will go on. Recessions come and go. Providing i’m alive, able and well, i’ll be getting up for work as normal on March 30th.


I can 100% guarantee that I will not be getting up for work on the 30th March like I did on daysaturdayafter, so is athebrilliant 29th March...... it's a Saturday.


Indeed.
The micromanagement of TM in selecting the date for Brexit was brilliant: Brexit should happen in a weekend.
The macromanagement was less so: she didnt have a plan for the first (working) day after.... :sorry:
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8605
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:02 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:

I shouldn't argue with trolls, but a hard Brexit is the worst option of them all, period.


It is the most painful, but not the worst, as both sides can plan the future freely afterwards and can offer planing security.

Compare it to the UK revoking Article 50 and a sizeable group in parliament (and UKIP) devoting themselves to deliver Brexit after the next election. Nobody can make any long term plans. Or the UK signing a deal that they did not want to sign. Next election will then bring promises to re-negotiate, get a better deal or do the hard Brexit.

there are good reasons why Norway rejected the idea of the UK joining EFTA, because EFTA is stable, which it would not be with the UK in it.

Sure deal supported by a clear majority in the UK would be better, but there is no such deal.


I agree with your analysis on the UK being caught in a state of permanent renegotiation after Brexit, but I feel this is going to be the outcome regardless, including no deal.

It's a given that any outcome is going to be unacceptable to enough people to seek immediate changes to it: labour will bring the CU membership back up the day they come to power, remainers will keep pushing for a Norway style status, Brexiteers will always find a link between the EU and the UK that they will like to cut (anybody told them yet the ECHR is NOT the ECJ and the UK will be subject to its rulings still, for instance?), and don't forget that in any case an all important FTA needs to be agreed to as well still, so rather than end the discussion on Europe with Brexit, the UK's relationship will most certainly dominate British politics for the rest of next decade.

All because all to many British politicians suffer from a national identity crisis, not being comfortable with the (deminished) status of their once very great country in today's world, combined with an empoverished population dreaming of those good old days, not because they care about the status of their country like their Conservative and millionaire leaders do, but because of the better living standards they had back then (which deteriorated due to those same Britsh politicians previously failed attempts of making the UK great again via a social race to the bottom).


But after a hard Brexit it is mainly a British problem again. The EU is able to plan stable budgets, move forward with modernisation or deeper integration. Industries can move their assets and plan their manufacturing process based on the new situation. A hard Brexit will create a bump in econimc development in Europe, but it will be just a bump. A never ending Brexit will have the same practical effects, just with even more uncertainty.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14234
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:43 pm

A still small but growing number of UK citizens are seeking dual citizenship with EC countries due to Brexit fears. This is mainly done for economic security and not easy with some countries
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/29/br ... -passport/
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17365
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:28 pm

Arion640 wrote:
By the way that amendement in Parliament rejecting a no deal brexit...wasn’t legally binding


That vote was a ‘placeholder’ with a specific purpose. It enables a binding vote on a no-deal Brexit when next debated in less than two weeks.

That’s when the brown smelly stuff finally(?) hits the fan.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Arion640
Posts: 2382
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:57 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Life will go on. Recessions come and go. Providing i’m alive, able and well, i’ll be getting up for work as normal on March 30th.


I can 100% guarantee that I will not be getting up for work on the 30th March like I did on the 29th March...... it's a Saturday.


Well Richard you’ve well and truly caught me out there...we will go with April 1st then.
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Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 9796
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:30 pm

Arion640 wrote:
we will go with April 1st then.


The irony ;)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
Posts: 2382
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:45 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
we will go with April 1st then.


The irony ;)


Knew that was coming...
223 319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 73G 738 744 752 753 763 764 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 MD83 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75

Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 9796
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:58 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
we will go with April 1st then.


The irony ;)


Knew that was coming...


Your humble servant, I wouldnot dare to let you down 8-)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 6954
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:38 am

ltbewr wrote:
A still small but growing number of UK citizens are seeking dual citizenship with EC countries due to Brexit fears. This is mainly done for economic security and not easy with some countries

There was a rush for Britons living here in Denmark to get Danish or dual Danish/UK citizenship. But that was back in 2017.

Easy? You live and work here. You have paid your taxes. You pass a multiple choise test showing basic knowledge of the country, 30 correct out of 40. You prove to be able to communicate without much trouble in Danish language. You have a criminally clean nose, a hefty speeding ticket sets you back a couple of years.

The rush started late June 2016 and is long time over.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
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