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caliboy93
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Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:36 pm

Despite the Mueller investigations gaining speed and slowly devouring Trump's inner circle, as well as Trump's policy and shutdown woes, some pundits are saying that Trump will win 2020. What is your take on this?
 
DeutchLund
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:38 pm

Depends on who the Democrats run but I think if the election were today he'd probably win against any of the declared Democrats in the race.

His base of support hasn't wavered one bit and his approval ratings remain very high among Republicans.
 
salttee
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:47 pm

DeutchLund wrote:
His base of support hasn't wavered one bit and his approval ratings remain very high among Republicans.

That gives him about 33% of the vote on election day because no one else will vote for him. He has been a disaster and everybody knows it.
 
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ER757
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:48 pm

Too early to say - a lot can happen in the next 12-18 months that would go a long way towards answering that question.
It's impossible to say who he'd even be up against at this point - there are some Dems already running, but more are sure to declare and seeing who comes out as the nominee is of course critical to that party's chances.
Also, depending of how many third party candidates run and from what part of the political spectrum they hail will determine if they steal more votes from the democratic nominee or the POTUS.
Then of course there is the state of the economy in 2020, are we in a war, was there a major terrorist attack and on and on.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:59 pm

ER757 wrote:
Too early to say - a lot can happen in the next 12-18 months that would go a long way towards answering that question.
It's impossible to say who he'd even be up against at this point - there are some Dems already running, but more are sure to declare and seeing who comes out as the nominee is of course critical to that party's chances.
Also, depending of how many third party candidates run and from what part of the political spectrum they hail will determine if they steal more votes from the democratic nominee or the POTUS.
Then of course there is the state of the economy in 2020, are we in a war, was there a major terrorist attack and on and on.



I think Michael Bennet laid out the Democrat case against Trump. I don't think Trump will recover from it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... eeded.html

TODD: Well I appreciate the straightforwardness there. What -- why are you thinking about it and what would stop you?

BENNET: Because I -- because I think that the country is moving in a terribly -- in a terrible direction. I think Donald Trump is much more a symptom of our problems than he is the creator of our problems, he's an accelerant. He was sent here to blow this place up -- that's what people in my state who voted for him said and guess what, they succeeded.

But now we've got to pick up the pieces and we've got to begin to make investments in the next generation of Americans again. We've got to make sure that people can fully participate as citizens in this democracy. So there's a lot of work for us to do going forward and I think there are ways of working on that here, and there are also ways of working on that in a presidential campaign.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
DeutchLund
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:03 pm

salttee wrote:
DeutchLund wrote:
His base of support hasn't wavered one bit and his approval ratings remain very high among Republicans.

That gives him about 33% of the vote on election day because no one else will vote for him. He has been a disaster and everybody knows it.


That's about what he got the last time around. Yes, he's been a complete disaster but if you think Republicans will vote for a Democrat instead you're crazy.
 
kaitak
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:10 pm

I find it hard to think that thjere could be any Dem out there who could run against the car crash that has been the Trump presidency and not win; sure, he has a base, but even if you discount Mueller and all that his investigation has thrown up, there is SO much that he has done that is simply flat wrong, immoral, thoughtless, mean-spirited or just downright stupid.

Bias aside, what has he actually achieved?
One piece of legislation in two years, which has only benefited the very wealthiest in society (the tax bill)
The longest government shutdown in history, which could have been avoided if he sought the money when he had a majority in the house, yet over 800k federal workers have suffered for it
Inane, irresponsible foreign policy, which has made the US a pariah (who would seek to enter into an agreement with the US now)
Creating, not healing divisions (Charlottesville, constant stream of invective against immigrants, others)
Victimising the transgender community; allowing the Religious Right to undo rights won under the Obama administration (separation of Church and State anyone)
Ending DACA (and as if that weren't enough), using these kids as hostages in the shutdown negotiations
Taking away healthcare from millions

There's probably a few more things to mention, but that's enough to be getting on with.

Now, if I were a Dem and couldn't win against a Republican with that track record, I'd be feeling fairly bloody embarrassed.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:12 pm

I just became a citizen last month. He'll get my vote.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:23 pm

DeutchLund wrote:
Yes, he's been a complete disaster but if you think Republicans will vote for a Democrat instead you're crazy.

They don't have to. Staying home, not marking the ballot, voting third party (or write-in), or spoiling it still denies Trump a vote without giving it to the Democrat.

Some states are just so red, it really won't make a difference (WY, WV, and AL are Trump's strongest states), but other purple states like PA, MI, and WI could define whether he gets a second term or not.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
treetreeseven
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:33 pm

Seeing as running the Executive branch in a country this big and complex takes strategy, and seeing that Trump and his swamp things can never seem to develop or maintain any coherent strategy, I don't see his chances as good. The authoritarians and racists and Nazis which make up his "base" will still vote for Trump, of course; they're all a lost cause. However, they're at worst probably 30-35% of the population. There are a lot of people who aren't authoritarian, racist, or Nazi who voted Trump once, but aren't so dumb that they'll do it again once the total lack of strategy from Trump and the GOP bites enough of them in the ass. This government shutdown is a brilliant example of that.

All that being said, there's not much point in speculating too long this far out. The public memory is short, and there's plenty of time for Trump to pull another Puerto Rico but on-shore this time, or for Trump to start a war, or whatever else, at which point everything becomes unforeseeable.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:44 pm

Well Trump does have the following going for him.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ad-of-2020

The RNC has decided to throw their support behind the biggest Cave in the US for 2020.

Image
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:04 pm

Just as the left underestimated him in 2016, I think they will continue that mistake and underestimate him in 2020. If the economy continues as it is, I think he wins. If it doesn't, he will lose.

That's about all that really matters.
 
treetreeseven
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:32 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Just as the left underestimated him in 2016, I think they will continue that mistake and underestimate him in 2020. If the economy continues as it is, I think he wins. If it doesn't, he will lose.

My belief is that as length of time in power for Trump and his merry band of swamp things increases, the probability of a major economic disruption increases toward 1. Others I'm sure will disagree, but it's obvious by now that the Trump executive branch is actually pretty terrible at its principal (alleged) function: executing the tasks necessary for the operation of the federal government.

But aside from all that, I think Trump, and the regressive cultural movement in general, have a pretty solid shot getting their asses handed to them even if the economy stays pretty much where it's at from now til the election, because more and more people in the middle are getting sick of the endless fountain of crap coming both the figurehead and all the groupies. It stinks, and it's getting everywhere, and people generally want the government to do what it's supposed to do and otherwise be as invisible as possible, and not tell them what to do, and they will punish whoever they think is responsible for things not being that way.

Never underestimate the power of the American moderate, for good or ill. Trump et al weren't moderate to begin with, and their "strategy," such as it is, has been to continue becoming more and more and more extreme over time, even as people peel off the edges of the "base" in twos and threes with every news cycle. If this process continues, by November 2020, the only Trump supporters left really *will* be the authoritarians and racists and Nazis, and as much as we all fear it's worse, I really don't think such deplorables make up more than 25-35% of the population of any country.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:37 pm

You forgot who the Dems nominee is. Against the whacky fringe that have announced I think if he survives the Mueller probe and finishes his first term strong I think he wins. Against Biden I think he has a problem.
"Some people did something" Rep Omar on 9/11
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:38 pm

treetreeseven wrote:
Never underestimate the power of the American moderate, for good or ill. Trump et al weren't moderate to begin with, and their "strategy," such as it is, has been to continue becoming more and more and more extreme over time, even as people peel off the edges of the "base" in twos and threes with every news cycle. If this process continues, by November 2020, the only Trump supporters left really *will* be the authoritarians and racists and Nazis, and as much as we all fear it's worse, I really don't think such deplorables make up more than 25-35% of the population of any country.


I think you should take a drive through the counties that won Trump the election in 2016. Their support from Trump hasn't changed much. There's a whole lot of country out there. A lot of people different from you and others here. Take south eastern Ohio. The "authoritarians and racists and Nazis" they are, voted 67% for Trump in 2016. But in 2008 they were 67% Obama.

Calling those people Racist, or Nazis, or authoritarians isn't going to win them over to your side. Trust me.
 
Magog
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:39 pm

It will boil down to the economy.
 
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Aloha717200
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:44 pm

I strongly believe, and strongly hope, that the slow-motion disaster that has been Trump administration will see itself booted out in 2020 in spectacular fashion.

What i actually think will happen is his base will hold and the center will move left. Despite his support among blue collar white workers, the Dems will be strongly working to win those voters back, and I suspect they will succeed. ESPECIALLY if the recession that many CFOs are predicting actually comes to pass.

The only way Trump wins this thing is if the economy is strong and people's wallets are full.

And i dont think those who were hammered by the government shutdown will soon forget whose fault it was.

Polls show the electorate blaming Trump and Republicans for the shutdown by a margin of 2-1. He was losing this battle and the only reason the government is reopening now is because his own base, his own party, cracked, and started voting against his proposals.

Once that erosion begins it's hard to undo. Especially once those swept up in populist and nationalist ideals start seeing the effects of it hit home, and not in a good way. A lot of minds have been changed lately. I expect that to continue.

Incidentally, I'm not particularly excited about any of the declared democrats yet. If they truly want this to be knocked out of the park....they need someone who can inspire people again. There are a lot of people out there who miss when presidents inspired people.
 
Flighty
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:18 pm

I think trump is an idiot and 90% corrupt, but that is better than being incredibly smart and 400% corrupt.
 
DeutchLund
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:42 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
treetreeseven wrote:

Calling those people Racist, or Nazis, or authoritarians isn't going to win them over to your side. Trust me.


This is what the DNC and many of its candidates don't understand. Playing the identity politics card doesn't play well outside urban areas. Those people in Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina are the same "racist bigots" they need to court. They don't give a shit about free trade.
 
Okie
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:46 pm

Slug71 wrote:
I just became a citizen last month. He'll get my vote.


Congratulations.
One set of my grandparents were legal immigrants and naturalized citizens.
They appear to be more proud of that than any other accomplishment in their life.

Okie
 
salttee
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:15 am

You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:24 am

DeutchLund wrote:
Depends on who the Democrats run but I think if the election were today he'd probably win against any of the declared Democrats in the race.

His base of support hasn't wavered one bit and his approval ratings remain very high among Republicans.


Except that the President is elected through the Electroal College. Every single state Hillary won, sans VA, has strong Trump disapproval ratings and last year voted strongly in favor of Democrats. VA is split 50/50 for Trump and votes for representatives. CO, NM, NV and NH - the battleground states Hillary won - moved favorably to the left.

Contrast that to Trump. In the 2018 elections for the House, WI, MI and PA saw the largest swings from Republican to Democrat in the country; all of these states have strong disapprovals for Trump. Trump promised more manufacturing jobs for MI, instead GM is cutting thousands of jobs - in spite of record profits.

Meanwhile, AZ and IA will become battleground states, both leaning Democrat if the election were today. FL, OH , NC and GA are basically 50/50 splits.
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compensateme
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:33 am

salttee wrote:
You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.


It had nothing to do with luck, he out campaigned Hillary. He visited the Midwest often, promising to tear up NAFTA and bring back manufacturing jobs to America. Meanwhile, Hillary barely visited the Midwest and when she did, she promised to help Americans pay for college.

Trumps’s message is what people want to hear. They want the $30/hour manufacturing jobs to come back. They don’t want to go to college. Problem is, those jobs aren’t coming back and the country is enjoying a thriving economy while WI, MI and PA are left out, which will likely doom him in 2020.
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Dieuwer
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:51 am

I suggest dispensing with the personal attacks.

I'm not so sure about Trump getting reelected. Against Hillary he barely won, and only because of the funny way the electoral system works.
I think that if his base turns out in droves while many minorities and Millennial liberals stay home, I think he will win. But if every liberal in the USA actually does vote, I think he will lose (with a large margin).
 
salttee
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:23 am

compensateme wrote:
salttee wrote:
You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.


It had nothing to do with luck, he out campaigned Hillary. He visited the Midwest often, promising to tear up NAFTA and bring back manufacturing jobs to America. Meanwhile, Hillary barely visited the Midwest and when she did, she promised to help Americans pay for college.

Trumps’s message is what people want to hear. They want the $30/hour manufacturing jobs to come back. They don’t want to go to college. Problem is, those jobs aren’t coming back and the country is enjoying a thriving economy while WI, MI and PA are left out, which will likely doom him in 2020.

What part of "he lost the popular vote" don't you understand?

You clowns think he won by a landslide because the American people gave him a huuuuge mandate.

He lost the popular vote, it was a fluke that he won the electoral score. It will never happen again.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:12 am

salttee wrote:
compensateme wrote:
salttee wrote:
You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.


It had nothing to do with luck, he out campaigned Hillary. He visited the Midwest often, promising to tear up NAFTA and bring back manufacturing jobs to America. Meanwhile, Hillary barely visited the Midwest and when she did, she promised to help Americans pay for college.

Trumps’s message is what people want to hear. They want the $30/hour manufacturing jobs to come back. They don’t want to go to college. Problem is, those jobs aren’t coming back and the country is enjoying a thriving economy while WI, MI and PA are left out, which will likely doom him in 2020.

What part of "he lost the popular vote" don't you understand?

You clowns think he won by a landslide because the American people gave him a huuuuge mandate.

He lost the popular vote, it was a fluke that he won the electoral score. It will never happen again.


We don’t vote for President by popular vote, but rather the Electoral College system. You need to research it.

Trump’s victory was not a fluke, and don’t make assumptions about who I voted for. It’s happened before in which the winner of the popular vote didn’t win the EC (lastly in 2000) and it’ll happen again. Trump won because he out campaigned Hillary; Trump and the Republican Party dumped large sums of cash in WI, MI and PA while Hillary and the Democrats assumes those states were in the bag for her. They were wrong. Not only did Trump win those states, but the Republicans did much better than the Democrats across the ticket. This is FACT, not an opinion.
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Dutchy
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:26 am

Will probably most depent on the state of the economy at the time of the reelection. "It is the economy stupid" quote by Bill Clinton.
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DL717
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 3:53 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Just as the left underestimated him in 2016, I think they will continue that mistake and underestimate him in 2020. If the economy continues as it is, I think he wins. If it doesn't, he will lose.

That's about all that really matters.


If he comes out clean after Mueller, the left is screwed. The groundswell to avenge him will make the last cycle look like a joke. If not, Republicans will have a primary and destroy any of these “Democratic Socialists” the left seems to be in love with. It’s a lose lose for the left. Might want to watch those dem candidates that keep popping up.
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NIKV69
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:43 am

Dieuwer wrote:
I suggest dispensing with the personal attacks.

I'm not so sure about Trump getting reelected. Against Hillary he barely won, and only because of the funny way the electoral system works.
I think that if his base turns out in droves while many minorities and Millennial liberals stay home, I think he will win. But if every liberal in the USA actually does vote, I think he will lose (with a large margin).


Barely? Check the results again. The electoral college isn't a funny thing. It's the fairest way for everyone in the country to have a say.

Liberals voting means nothing. Whomever the DNC nominates will win the liberal states. You Need OH, FL, PA etc and for that you better run Biden because the other whackos can't carry those states.
"Some people did something" Rep Omar on 9/11
 
afcjets
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:57 am

salttee wrote:
You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.


Lol, so did he win by colluding with the Russians or by pure luck? Please make up your mind.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:04 am

afcjets wrote:
salttee wrote:
You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.


Lol, so did he win by colluding with the Russians or by pure luck? Please make up your mind.


He had the luck that KGB decided Trump is a prospect candidate and very easy to manipulate to do their bidding 30 years ago.

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compensateme
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:02 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I suggest dispensing with the personal attacks.

I'm not so sure about Trump getting reelected. Against Hillary he barely won, and only because of the funny way the electoral system works.
I think that if his base turns out in droves while many minorities and Millennial liberals stay home, I think he will win. But if every liberal in the USA actually does vote, I think he will lose (with a large margin).


Barely? Check the results again. The electoral college isn't a funny thing. It's the fairest way for everyone in the country to have a say.

Liberals voting means nothing. Whomever the DNC nominates will win the liberal states. You Need OH, FL, PA etc and for that you better run Biden because the other whackos can't carry those states.


How in the world is the electroal college “the fairest way for everyone in the country to have a say?” The “fairest” way would be to have to popular vote directly select the President; that would require Presidental campaigns to be national, catering to the entire country’s needs, rather than to be focused on a handful of “battleground” states, disproportionately giving credence to those voters needs.

It’s not a coincidence that the battleground states have higher-than-average voter turnout, and non-battleground states lower-than-average. Who knows who would’ve really won the popular vote in 2016 had we directly elected the President.

In the second half of the 1990s, the Republican Party lobbied hard to abolish the Electoral College, since it seemed to favor Democratic candidate. When population and demographic shifts changed that, they threw their support behind the Electrial College. When Texas and Georgia become battleground states in the next decade or so, look for Republicans to again embrace that position.
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Jouhou
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:18 am

caliboy93 wrote:
Despite the Mueller investigations gaining speed and slowly devouring Trump's inner circle, as well as Trump's policy and shutdown woes, some pundits are saying that Trump will win 2020. What is your take on this?


He only won because of abysmal election turnout. Considering how polarized he's made the population, where almost 60% of the population vehemently disapproves, as opposed to a large segment of the population not caring as seen in polling in previous presidencies ( His approval ratings aren't record breaking low, but his disapproval ratings are completely unprecedented), as long as people actually go vote and the Democratic party runs someone better than a potato he's absolutely toast. I don't even think Russia can prevent that at this point.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:53 am

DL717 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Just as the left underestimated him in 2016, I think they will continue that mistake and underestimate him in 2020. If the economy continues as it is, I think he wins. If it doesn't, he will lose.

That's about all that really matters.


If he comes out clean after Mueller, the left is screwed. The groundswell to avenge him will make the last cycle look like a joke. If not, Republicans will have a primary and destroy any of these “Democratic Socialists” the left seems to be in love with. It’s a lose lose for the left. Might want to watch those dem candidates that keep popping up.


Nobody except the left cares about Mueller. If the economy remains strong and he gets his wall, he will destroy any opposition, simply because he has 33-40% of all possible votes secure, while the left will probably be divided again. Ocasio-.Cortez supporters probably won´t vote for Bidden, Bernie might run again and the nomination process of the Democrats will leave the winner damaged anyway. Trump will exploit this.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:13 am

seahawk wrote:
DL717 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Just as the left underestimated him in 2016, I think they will continue that mistake and underestimate him in 2020. If the economy continues as it is, I think he wins. If it doesn't, he will lose.

That's about all that really matters.


If he comes out clean after Mueller, the left is screwed. The groundswell to avenge him will make the last cycle look like a joke. If not, Republicans will have a primary and destroy any of these “Democratic Socialists” the left seems to be in love with. It’s a lose lose for the left. Might want to watch those dem candidates that keep popping up.


Nobody except the left cares about Mueller. If the economy remains strong and he gets his wall, he will destroy any opposition, simply because he has 33-40% of all possible votes secure, while the left will probably be divided again. Ocasio-.Cortez supporters probably won´t vote for Bidden, Bernie might run again and the nomination process of the Democrats will leave the winner damaged anyway. Trump will exploit this.


You're failing to account for the fact that voter turnout in the US is highly variable, and when turn out increases democrats do better. There's a reason why the standard gop strategy is to reduce turnout in general, even if they're reducing some of their own turnout it has a net benefit to them.

Our political landscape would be very different if everyone voted. Instead many stay home because of the "both sides are the same" narrative that is constantly injected into our society. That narrative *IS* the largest part of the gop strategy. They need a significant portion of the population to believe that in order to win.

Trump has made that narrative very hard to believe now. He's actually completely sabotaged that strategy and it will get even harder to propagate as these next two years pass.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:54 am

Jouhou wrote:
caliboy93 wrote:
Despite the Mueller investigations gaining speed and slowly devouring Trump's inner circle, as well as Trump's policy and shutdown woes, some pundits are saying that Trump will win 2020. What is your take on this?


He only won because of abysmal election turnout. Considering how polarized he's made the population, where almost 60% of the population vehemently disapproves, as opposed to a large segment of the population not caring as seen in polling in previous presidencies ( His approval ratings aren't record breaking low, but his disapproval ratings are completely unprecedented), as long as people actually go vote and the Democratic party runs someone better than a potato he's absolutely toast. I don't even think Russia can prevent that at this point.


Hillary was a horrible candidate who ran a horrible campaign. Who also bullied Biden into cowering into the corner and not running. Don't blame the voters. You don't win elections because you feel you are owed it you win because you campaign and earn it.
"Some people did something" Rep Omar on 9/11
 
seb146
Posts: 19635
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:55 am

afcjets wrote:
salttee wrote:
You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.


Lol, so did he win by colluding with the Russians or by pure luck? Please make up your mind.


Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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Jouhou
Posts: 1877
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:06 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
caliboy93 wrote:
Despite the Mueller investigations gaining speed and slowly devouring Trump's inner circle, as well as Trump's policy and shutdown woes, some pundits are saying that Trump will win 2020. What is your take on this?


He only won because of abysmal election turnout. Considering how polarized he's made the population, where almost 60% of the population vehemently disapproves, as opposed to a large segment of the population not caring as seen in polling in previous presidencies ( His approval ratings aren't record breaking low, but his disapproval ratings are completely unprecedented), as long as people actually go vote and the Democratic party runs someone better than a potato he's absolutely toast. I don't even think Russia can prevent that at this point.


Hillary was a horrible candidate who ran a horrible campaign. Who also bullied Biden into cowering into the corner and not running. Don't blame the voters. You don't win elections because you feel you are owed it you win because you campaign and earn it.


Hillary was a horrible candidate and unlike many I'm not blaming the voters. See my following post about the number one enemy of people exercising their right to vote. I think you might recognize the narrative I'm talking about.

The GOP does not win by exciting people. They win by making the true political center of the country feel so defeated they don't vote at all.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 12541
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:08 am

seb146 wrote:



Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


What did Russia say? All they did was publish emails that Hillary wrote herself. The people of America didn't want her and it had nothing to do with Russia. Why can't you accept your party screwed up and cowered in fear to the Clinton machine and didn't have an honest primary?

Trump Derangement Syndrome rots your brain. So sad.
"Some people did something" Rep Omar on 9/11
 
tommy1808
Posts: 10098
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:15 am

compensateme wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I suggest dispensing with the personal attacks.

I'm not so sure about Trump getting reelected. Against Hillary he barely won, and only because of the funny way the electoral system works.
I think that if his base turns out in droves while many minorities and Millennial liberals stay home, I think he will win. But if every liberal in the USA actually does vote, I think he will lose (with a large margin).


Barely? Check the results again. The electoral college isn't a funny thing. It's the fairest way for everyone in the country to have a say.

Liberals voting means nothing. Whomever the DNC nominates will win the liberal states. You Need OH, FL, PA etc and for that you better run Biden because the other whackos can't carry those states.


How in the world is the electroal college “the fairest way for everyone in the country to have a say?” The “fairest” way would be to have to popular vote directly select the President; that would require Presidental campaigns to be national, catering to the entire country’s needs, rather than to be focused on a handful of “battleground” states, disproportionately giving credence to those voters needs.


Nah, that would only require them to campaign in the most populous states. If you want the president to represent the whole country you can't go with a pure majority vote. The compromise is somewhere in the middle. Pick EC voters by popular vote outcome in each state my work. Then you have a system that is hard to crack without votes from everywhere, and outside of very close races, can't lose the popular vote and become president.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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seahawk
Posts: 8306
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:17 am

Jouhou wrote:
seahawk wrote:
DL717 wrote:

If he comes out clean after Mueller, the left is screwed. The groundswell to avenge him will make the last cycle look like a joke. If not, Republicans will have a primary and destroy any of these “Democratic Socialists” the left seems to be in love with. It’s a lose lose for the left. Might want to watch those dem candidates that keep popping up.


Nobody except the left cares about Mueller. If the economy remains strong and he gets his wall, he will destroy any opposition, simply because he has 33-40% of all possible votes secure, while the left will probably be divided again. Ocasio-.Cortez supporters probably won´t vote for Bidden, Bernie might run again and the nomination process of the Democrats will leave the winner damaged anyway. Trump will exploit this.


You're failing to account for the fact that voter turnout in the US is highly variable, and when turn out increases democrats do better. There's a reason why the standard gop strategy is to reduce turnout in general, even if they're reducing some of their own turnout it has a net benefit to them.

Our political landscape would be very different if everyone voted. Instead many stay home because of the "both sides are the same" narrative that is constantly injected into our society. That narrative *IS* the largest part of the gop strategy. They need a significant portion of the population to believe that in order to win.

Trump has made that narrative very hard to believe now. He's actually completely sabotaged that strategy and it will get even harder to propagate as these next two years pass.


Imho it does not matter, what matters is that the opposing candidate needs to unify all anti-Trump voters behind his campaign, somehow I doubt that. The selection process of Democrats will probably again go along the establishment / anti-establishment lines with the left wing candidates finding a strong vocal minority of support, that will paint the centre candidates as bad as Trump. And then you have the "both sides are the same" problem again.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 12541
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:41 am

seahawk wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Nobody except the left cares about Mueller. If the economy remains strong and he gets his wall, he will destroy any opposition, simply because he has 33-40% of all possible votes secure, while the left will probably be divided again. Ocasio-.Cortez supporters probably won´t vote for Bidden, Bernie might run again and the nomination process of the Democrats will leave the winner damaged anyway. Trump will exploit this.


You're failing to account for the fact that voter turnout in the US is highly variable, and when turn out increases democrats do better. There's a reason why the standard gop strategy is to reduce turnout in general, even if they're reducing some of their own turnout it has a net benefit to them.

Our political landscape would be very different if everyone voted. Instead many stay home because of the "both sides are the same" narrative that is constantly injected into our society. That narrative *IS* the largest part of the gop strategy. They need a significant portion of the population to believe that in order to win.

Trump has made that narrative very hard to believe now. He's actually completely sabotaged that strategy and it will get even harder to propagate as these next two years pass.


Imho it does not matter, what matters is that the opposing candidate needs to unify all anti-Trump voters behind his campaign, somehow I doubt that. The selection process of Democrats will probably again go along the establishment / anti-establishment lines with the left wing candidates finding a strong vocal minority of support, that will paint the centre candidates as bad as Trump. And then you have the "both sides are the same" problem again.



So you make the same mistake the Dems did in 2016? All anti Trump voters are voting against him no matter who wins the Primary. It's the independent voter you have to sway and they are not going to vote for Kamala Harris.
"Some people did something" Rep Omar on 9/11
 
User avatar
DarkSnowyNight
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:59 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:51 am

NIKV69 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

You're failing to account for the fact that voter turnout in the US is highly variable, and when turn out increases democrats do better. There's a reason why the standard gop strategy is to reduce turnout in general, even if they're reducing some of their own turnout it has a net benefit to them.

Our political landscape would be very different if everyone voted. Instead many stay home because of the "both sides are the same" narrative that is constantly injected into our society. That narrative *IS* the largest part of the gop strategy. They need a significant portion of the population to believe that in order to win.

Trump has made that narrative very hard to believe now. He's actually completely sabotaged that strategy and it will get even harder to propagate as these next two years pass.


Imho it does not matter, what matters is that the opposing candidate needs to unify all anti-Trump voters behind his campaign, somehow I doubt that. The selection process of Democrats will probably again go along the establishment / anti-establishment lines with the left wing candidates finding a strong vocal minority of support, that will paint the centre candidates as bad as Trump. And then you have the "both sides are the same" problem again.



So you make the same mistake the Dems did in 2016? All anti Trump voters are voting against him no matter who wins the Primary. It's the independent voter you have to sway and they are not going to vote for Kamala Harris.


And there's where you are wrong. That trick worked for trump in 16 because the Demoractic vote didn't fully appreciate how bad things would get with that guy. Now that we know know, that won't fly.

I've listed reasons in another thread why I don't like Harris.

But make no mistake. If it comes to that, she gets the vote over trump.
"Eagle, the Barrier's gone... Something, eh... Something Knows we're here"
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 1877
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:00 am

seahawk wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Nobody except the left cares about Mueller. If the economy remains strong and he gets his wall, he will destroy any opposition, simply because he has 33-40% of all possible votes secure, while the left will probably be divided again. Ocasio-.Cortez supporters probably won´t vote for Bidden, Bernie might run again and the nomination process of the Democrats will leave the winner damaged anyway. Trump will exploit this.


You're failing to account for the fact that voter turnout in the US is highly variable, and when turn out increases democrats do better. There's a reason why the standard gop strategy is to reduce turnout in general, even if they're reducing some of their own turnout it has a net benefit to them.

Our political landscape would be very different if everyone voted. Instead many stay home because of the "both sides are the same" narrative that is constantly injected into our society. That narrative *IS* the largest part of the gop strategy. They need a significant portion of the population to believe that in order to win.

Trump has made that narrative very hard to believe now. He's actually completely sabotaged that strategy and it will get even harder to propagate as these next two years pass.


Imho it does not matter, what matters is that the opposing candidate needs to unify all anti-Trump voters behind his campaign, somehow I doubt that. The selection process of Democrats will probably again go along the establishment / anti-establishment lines with the left wing candidates finding a strong vocal minority of support, that will paint the centre candidates as bad as Trump. And then you have the "both sides are the same" problem again.


The country might be disturbingly divided 40%-60% against him but that (almost) 60% REALLY hates him and are far more terrified of him and his supporters than they are afraid of Honduran immigrants. I'll tell you right now, fear is the most potent political force out there and it's driving a coalition of people with very different beliefs together in unity against him. What's important is that we don't let a different demagogue take advantage of that fear. We need to look for the best candidate to go against him, not a candidate that flings around pseudo-populism and false promises to protect us from the evils Trump has brought upon us. This will not be a normal election with normal rules.
 
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Berevoff
Posts: 203
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:19 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:10 pm

seb146 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
salttee wrote:
You guys should remember that the last time he lost the popular vote; he won by pure luck. The election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in three states. I believe a lot of people voted for him because they assumed he would lose but they wanted to register a protest vote to send Hillary a message.

If he runs in 2020 he will get clobbered, and that's without factoring in Muller's coming indictments and revelations.


Lol, so did he win by colluding with the Russians or by pure luck? Please make up your mind.


Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


Reagan conservative? Hillary is a Reagan conservative by today's standards. Its not the 80's anymore. This isn't about the Republicans...its about the Democrats just like it was in 2016. If they run another terrible candidate like Warren or Harris they won't stand a chance.

One more justice on the court and we can kiss the "American values democrats will capitalize on" goodbye. Abortion rights, gay rights, and all manor of social rights will be flushed down the toilet with a 6-3 court if the Democrats don't get their act together. I'm so annoyed.
 
KentB27
Posts: 435
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 2:20 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:17 pm

I think the government shutdown has pretty much cost him any chance he had at reelection. Granted, people tend to have short memories about certain things but I think he really blew it by throwing a hissy fit and partially shutting the government down when he didn't get what he wanted. He put hundreds of thousands of federal employees and their families in jeopardy and I don't think that will go unnoticed when it comes time to vote in 2020.
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3144
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:29 pm

Berevoff wrote:
seb146 wrote:
afcjets wrote:

Lol, so did he win by colluding with the Russians or by pure luck? Please make up your mind.


Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


Reagan conservative? Hillary is a Reagan conservative by today's standards. Its not the 80's anymore. This isn't about the Republicans...its about the Democrats just like it was in 2016. If they run another terrible candidate like Warren or Harris they won't stand a chance.

One more justice on the court and we can kiss the "American values democrats will capitalize on" goodbye. Abortion rights, gay rights, and all manor of social rights will be flushed down the toilet with a 6-3 court if the Democrats don't get their act together. I'm so annoyed.


I disagree. Hillary blew a winnable election (for example, her campaign ignored pleas to relinquish IA & OH and put those resources in WI, MI and PA). Whoever wins the Democrat nomination will unquestionably run a stronger campaign and take Trump more seriously.
Nobody cares what your next flight is...
 
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seahawk
Posts: 8306
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:42 pm

Jouhou wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

You're failing to account for the fact that voter turnout in the US is highly variable, and when turn out increases democrats do better. There's a reason why the standard gop strategy is to reduce turnout in general, even if they're reducing some of their own turnout it has a net benefit to them.

Our political landscape would be very different if everyone voted. Instead many stay home because of the "both sides are the same" narrative that is constantly injected into our society. That narrative *IS* the largest part of the gop strategy. They need a significant portion of the population to believe that in order to win.

Trump has made that narrative very hard to believe now. He's actually completely sabotaged that strategy and it will get even harder to propagate as these next two years pass.


Imho it does not matter, what matters is that the opposing candidate needs to unify all anti-Trump voters behind his campaign, somehow I doubt that. The selection process of Democrats will probably again go along the establishment / anti-establishment lines with the left wing candidates finding a strong vocal minority of support, that will paint the centre candidates as bad as Trump. And then you have the "both sides are the same" problem again.


The country might be disturbingly divided 40%-60% against him but that (almost) 60% REALLY hates him and are far more terrified of him and his supporters than they are afraid of Honduran immigrants. I'll tell you right now, fear is the most potent political force out there and it's driving a coalition of people with very different beliefs together in unity against him. What's important is that we don't let a different demagogue take advantage of that fear. We need to look for the best candidate to go against him, not a candidate that flings around pseudo-populism and false promises to protect us from the evils Trump has brought upon us. This will not be a normal election with normal rules.


I would like to see the primaries before I believe this.
 
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CitizenJustin
Posts: 495
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:12 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:27 pm

salttee wrote:
DeutchLund wrote:
His base of support hasn't wavered one bit and his approval ratings remain very high among Republicans.

That gives him about 33% of the vote on election day because no one else will vote for him. He has been a disaster and everybody knows it.


So far he’s survived countless scandals that would have destroyed past administrations. There’s simply not enough outrage and people have grown complacent.
 
User avatar
CitizenJustin
Posts: 495
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:12 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:35 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
seb146 wrote:



Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


What did Russia say? All they did was publish emails that Hillary wrote herself. The people of America didn't want her and it had nothing to do with Russia. Why can't you accept your party screwed up and cowered in fear to the Clinton machine and didn't have an honest primary?

Trump Derangement Syndrome rots your brain. So sad.



Why can’t you accept that Hillary won the popular vote? The people of America did want her. Trump won key states by the tiniest of margins.
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