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treetreeseven
Posts: 298
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:36 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
treetreeseven wrote:
Never underestimate the power of the American moderate, for good or ill. Trump et al weren't moderate to begin with, and their "strategy," such as it is, has been to continue becoming more and more and more extreme over time, even as people peel off the edges of the "base" in twos and threes with every news cycle. If this process continues, by November 2020, the only Trump supporters left really *will* be the authoritarians and racists and Nazis, and as much as we all fear it's worse, I really don't think such deplorables make up more than 25-35% of the population of any country.


I think you should take a drive through the counties that won Trump the election in 2016. Their support from Trump hasn't changed much. There's a whole lot of country out there. A lot of people different from you and others here. Take south eastern Ohio. The "authoritarians and racists and Nazis" they are, voted 67% for Trump in 2016. But in 2008 they were 67% Obama.

Calling those people Racist, or Nazis, or authoritarians isn't going to win them over to your side. Trust me.

If you read what I wrote, you'll see that I'm only saying that half of that 67% are racists, Nazis, and authoritarians. :smile:

Anyway, my opinions and the Democratic Party messaging strategy are not one and the same, but I'll agree with your assessment of the fact that pointing out that Trump's "base" - the half of that 67% who have drunk the Kool-Aid so hard they bleed it - *IS* made up of deplorables, would not be an effective strategy. Because the non-deplorables do understandably get defensive about it.

Personally, I would think that dropping any semblance of "callout culture" in places like you mention, and sitting down and actually meeting with the non-deplorable half of Trump voters, and coming up with both a highly positive message to their concerns, and some actual policy help for them (as opposed to, for example, letting every single architect of the 2008 financial collapse off with millions in payouts like Obama did) ... might have a better chance of working.
 
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lugie
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:07 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Just as the left underestimated him in 2016, I think they will continue that mistake and underestimate him in 2020. If the economy continues as it is, I think he wins. If it doesn't, he will lose.

That's about all that really matters.



I think the decisive group that the left overlooked in 2016 is the one of rather desperate rust belt voters (oftentimes people who even voted Obama in '08 and '12) who went for Trump simply to "give it a shot" since all else seemed to have failed. They voted for him not despite but precisely because they didn't know what he stood for and what he might do in office.

Well, they have now found and I would say that they can, by an overwhelming margin, consider it a failed experiment. What has Trump done that might have helped these people?? Nothing. First off, he hasn't done much at all. But the things he did do?
Tax cuts - definitely not helpful for anyone in the white working class
Trade war - cost Midwestern farmers millions in revenue from soy exports to China
Shutdown - brought some existential crises along for all those who relied on federal loan payments for example

So yeah, they have given it a try but most of them probably won't turn that trial into a full subscription. And even if it's just a couple thousand that were turned off across MI, WI and PA, that might already be enough to block his path to reelection.
In fact, the Midterm results from these states might have already foreshadowed this outcome.
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Jouhou
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:06 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
seb146 wrote:



Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


What did Russia say? All they did was publish emails that Hillary wrote herself. The people of America didn't want her and it had nothing to do with Russia. Why can't you accept your party screwed up and cowered in fear to the Clinton machine and didn't have an honest primary?

Trump Derangement Syndrome rots your brain. So sad.



Why can’t you accept that Hillary won the popular vote? The people of America did want her. Trump won key states by the tiniest of margins.


Because they think they can keep "democrats" divided by bringing up 2016 primaries. BERNIE WAS NOT A DEMOCRAT UNTIL HE TRIED RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT. No shit the party apparatus didn't throw it's support behind him. You don't let someone just walk in and change their label just to use your resources they never contributed to.

Now stop trying to bring it up. We don't care. It's just annoying.
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WarRI1
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:15 am

Jouhou wrote:
CitizenJustin wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

What did Russia say? All they did was publish emails that Hillary wrote herself. The people of America didn't want her and it had nothing to do with Russia. Why can't you accept your party screwed up and cowered in fear to the Clinton machine and didn't have an honest primary?

Trump Derangement Syndrome rots your brain. So sad.



Why can’t you accept that Hillary won the popular vote? The people of America did want her. Trump won key states by the tiniest of margins.


Because they think they can keep "democrats" divided by bringing up 2016 primaries. BERNIE WAS NOT A DEMOCRAT UNTIL HE TRIED RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT. No shit the party apparatus didn't throw it's support behind him. You don't let someone just walk in and change their label just to use your resources they never contributed to.

Now stop trying to bring it up. We don't care. It's just annoying.



But, but ,but, the favorite tune of the Right Wing Red hats.
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seb146
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:45 am

NIKV69 wrote:
seb146 wrote:



Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


What did Russia say? All they did was publish emails that Hillary wrote herself. The people of America didn't want her and it had nothing to do with Russia. Why can't you accept your party screwed up and cowered in fear to the Clinton machine and didn't have an honest primary?

Trump Derangement Syndrome rots your brain. So sad.


We already know that the campaign for the orange one worked with Russia and Julian Assange to release those hacked emails. Read Stone's indictment.

There was nothing in them, anyway, but, please, do go on with your Hillary Derangement Syndrome.

More importantly, STOP DWELLING ON 2016!!! TDS is taking it's toll on you MAGA fan boys. You all keep bringing up 2016 like there is nothing else. Quite frankly, you all have nothing else. The economy is tanking, the REPUBLICAN shut down over a stupid vanity wall has taken it's toll on Republicans, debt is up, deficit is increasing, AFFORDABLE health care is gone, AFFORDABLE education is going away, equal rights for many Americans is going away.

But, yes, continue to scream "BUT HILLARY!!!" because that will win your election......... :roll:
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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seb146
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:48 am

Berevoff wrote:
seb146 wrote:
afcjets wrote:

Lol, so did he win by colluding with the Russians or by pure luck? Please make up your mind.


Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


Reagan conservative? Hillary is a Reagan conservative by today's standards. Its not the 80's anymore. This isn't about the Republicans...its about the Democrats just like it was in 2016. If they run another terrible candidate like Warren or Harris they won't stand a chance.

One more justice on the court and we can kiss the "American values democrats will capitalize on" goodbye. Abortion rights, gay rights, and all manor of social rights will be flushed down the toilet with a 6-3 court if the Democrats don't get their act together. I'm so annoyed.


I have noticed that the candidates who declare early do not make it very far. All these Republicans and MAGA fan boys who are fretting and hand wringing over Warren and Harris are getting worked up for nothing, IMO. Just wait until someone like Hickenlooper or Booker declares later on.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:54 am

Jouhou wrote:

Because they think they can keep "democrats" divided by bringing up 2016 primaries. BERNIE WAS NOT A DEMOCRAT UNTIL HE TRIED RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT. No shit the party apparatus didn't throw it's support behind him. You don't let someone just walk in and change their label just to use your resources they never contributed to.

Now stop trying to bring it up. We don't care. It's just annoying.


Seems to be working. Nothing like an all caps response about Bernie to help that troll right out...

This brings up a good point and a key weakness though. We'll forgive the fact that Bernie's voting history and actions are far more democratic than our nominee was --he didn't switch parties to help a spouse win a governorship, just as an example. The problem isn't really him or his membership status.

Even if you could hang your hat on what amounts to an HOA Dues issue, what ever he was, virtually one hundred percent of his voters were absolutely democrats. I'm usually all for throwing extremists overboard, but the singular failure of Hillary to even try to incorporate the Bernie crowd after the fact was a huge contributor to her ultimate failure. Yes, there were other factors, but by now we know we can't take a thing for granted. And yeah, it bothers me that we're still here trying to pass that buck when we should be issuing corrective actions instead.

Whoever we nominate this time is going to need to win at least a million more votes than Hillary did. This is not an easy task. But we have an opportunity with that one.

For the first time, yesterday made clear that it's now possible for trump to lose in 2020. His party is furious with him. While the usual low-brow MAGA crowd will undoubtedly double down, GOP Inc. is already trying to lineup enough banana peels between him and a grave.

The opportunity part is that we have what will become a real chance to bring a lot of undecideds and centrists (real ones, not the idiots who've voted GOP for the last twelve elections but still somehow claim to be 'independent') over. With the mess trump's made of the Gov't operations over this wall project, supreme court nominations, China, shitting our own bed over Iran, etc, we're going to have an ability to actually be liberals this election. And possibly even gain ground.

But we can kiss that goodbye if we nominate someone who doesn't care about alienating their own voters.

As I've said before, I have a lot of issues with Harris. But she seems smart enough to be able to have learned from all that. And I'd say the same for Booker too.


seb146 wrote:
I have noticed that the candidates who declare early do not make it very far. All these Republicans and MAGA fan boys who are fretting and hand wringing over Warren and Harris are getting worked up for nothing, IMO. Just wait until someone like Hickenlooper or Booker declares later on.


Generally speaking, I agree with that (remembering how fast Christie disappeared from the GOP lineup in 15-16.). Just to put on a tin foil hat for a minute, I feel like Harris is somewhat of a stalking horse for Booker. While they're both somewhat center right (by most non right-wing extremist/troll standards), they do have enough liberal credentia to pass the smell test.

I think the Booker camp wants to see how Harris plays out. If she fizzles and still has something of a non-controversial overall loss, I can very easily see a Booker/Harris 2020 win.


And if she does great, Harris/Booker.

Yes, I know it's a coastal ticket, but with the somewhat ruinous faux populism everybody is having to put up with now, spending time and money where it counts in the battleground (aka otherwise totally irrelevant in real life) states, can probably overcome this.

Just a thought.
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Magog
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:22 pm

I find the debate over the electoral college to be pointless. It’s never going to change. The votes to amend the Constitution just aren’t there.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:54 pm

Magog wrote:
I find the debate over the electoral college to be pointless. It’s never going to change. The votes to amend the Constitution just aren’t there.


We don’t have to amend it. States just have to change the way they award electoral votes; there’s an effort underway in which a handful of (blue) states have agreed to award their votes to the winner of the national popular vote.

Given that the lion’s share of Americans have long supported giving the Presidency to the winner of the popular vote, I believe it’ll happen one day. But probably not until TX and GA become battleground/lean Democrat.
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Magog
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:04 pm

compensateme wrote:
Magog wrote:
I find the debate over the electoral college to be pointless. It’s never going to change. The votes to amend the Constitution just aren’t there.


We don’t have to amend it. States just have to change the way they award electoral votes; there’s an effort underway in which a handful of (blue) states have agreed to award their votes to the winner of the national popular vote.

Given that the lion’s share of Americans have long supported giving the Presidency to the winner of the popular vote, I believe it’ll happen one day. But probably not until TX and GA become battleground/lean Democrat.

And how many red states will support that? None.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:37 pm

Magog wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Magog wrote:
I find the debate over the electoral college to be pointless. It’s never going to change. The votes to amend the Constitution just aren’t there.


We don’t have to amend it. States just have to change the way they award electoral votes; there’s an effort underway in which a handful of (blue) states have agreed to award their votes to the winner of the national popular vote.

Given that the lion’s share of Americans have long supported giving the Presidency to the winner of the popular vote, I believe it’ll happen one day. But probably not until TX and GA become battleground/lean Democrat.

And how many red states will support that? None.


As I mentioned, when TX and GA become battleground states, Republican support will likely increase, since it’ll give an impression that the EC favors Democrats (if TX did indeed flip, it would).
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ltbewr
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:52 pm

I have long thought that whoever won as President would be a 1-termer. Both Trump and Hillary Clinton had serious issues of their own as well as economic and other factors that will affect that 2nd term.

Had Hillary Clinton won with both the popular and EC vote, with a Republican majority in the House and Senate, her agenda and her cabinet, Supreme Court and other appointments would have been impossible to get through as well as facing continuous harassment from House and Senate investigations. I suspect that even if got a Democrat majority of seats in the House in the mid-terms as did in 2018, the Senate would still be in R's control. There also would have been the Trump hard core that would have made it difficult to have the respect of many voters. Some 'liberals' didn't like HRC as feared she would escalate the wars in the ME, but at least she would have not been backing off sanctions with Russia and as a former Sec. of State, had better polices, behaviors and had more respect than Trump never had. She also would likely be weak on dealing with illegal immigration to the opinion of many.

Trump is unlikely to win a 2nd term for the many issues of his incompetency, bad policies, personal corruption and abuses of the Office, bad policies with Russia, attacks on non-White, the shutdown and so on.

But I think Trump will and HRC would have been affected by the likelihood of a bad economic cycle, the inability to bring back jobs from China or gone from automation, dealing with immigration and both with serious ethical and personal issues to limit them winning a 2nd term.
 
treetreeseven
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:42 pm

Magog wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Magog wrote:
I find the debate over the electoral college to be pointless. It’s never going to change. The votes to amend the Constitution just aren’t there.


We don’t have to amend it. States just have to change the way they award electoral votes; there’s an effort underway in which a handful of (blue) states have agreed to award their votes to the winner of the national popular vote.

Given that the lion’s share of Americans have long supported giving the Presidency to the winner of the popular vote, I believe it’ll happen one day. But probably not until TX and GA become battleground/lean Democrat.

And how many red states will support that? None.

That's not really a problem, since this is a matter of state law, and not every state needs to sign on. In fact, the effort is already almost 2/3 of the way to completion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... te_Compact
 
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seb146
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:18 pm

The Republican National Committee seems to think he has it all sewn up

https://thinkprogress.org/gop-moves-to- ... ecd967c7a/

The title is misleading but the RNC has thrown their complete support behind individual #1. This could complicate things for other Republican candidates who can mount a serious challenge in the primary and possibly cause a split in the Republican party.
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DL717
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:30 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
seb146 wrote:



Russian colluding and, luckily, his base were/are ignorant enough to believe what Russia said. So, a little of both.

WHEN a Reagan conservative runs against individual #1, there will be a split in the Republican party and this country will FINALLY get back to American values Democrats will capitalize on.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!


What did Russia say? All they did was publish emails that Hillary wrote herself. The people of America didn't want her and it had nothing to do with Russia. Why can't you accept your party screwed up and cowered in fear to the Clinton machine and didn't have an honest primary?

Trump Derangement Syndrome rots your brain. So sad.



Why can’t you accept that Hillary won the popular vote? The people of America did want her. Trump won key states by the tiniest of margins.


Popular vote is irrelevant. :banghead:

40% of eligible people didn’t show up to vote, meaning the majority didn’t want one or the other.
Last edited by DL717 on Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bagoldex
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:32 pm

Let's keep the electoral college but weight the value of each state's votes by their economic output per capita.
 
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DL717
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:34 pm

bagoldex wrote:
Let's keep the electoral college but weight the value of each state's votes by their economic output per capita.


So let wealth decide who rules? So you want a king then?
Last edited by DL717 on Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:39 pm

bagoldex wrote:
Let's keep the electoral college but weight the value of each state's votes by their economic output per capita.


Thus giving NY and CA voters all the power. No thanks.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
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DL717
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:40 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
bagoldex wrote:
Let's keep the electoral college but weight the value of each state's votes by their economic output per capita.


Thus giving NY and CA voters all the power. No thanks.


He’s advocating for worse. See my post above.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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seb146
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:44 pm

DL717 wrote:
CitizenJustin wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

What did Russia say? All they did was publish emails that Hillary wrote herself. The people of America didn't want her and it had nothing to do with Russia. Why can't you accept your party screwed up and cowered in fear to the Clinton machine and didn't have an honest primary?

Trump Derangement Syndrome rots your brain. So sad.



Why can’t you accept that Hillary won the popular vote? The people of America did want her. Trump won key states by the tiniest of margins.


Popular vote is irrelevant. :banghead:

40% of eligible people didn’t show up to vote, meaning the majority didn’t want one or the other.


You would be surprised how many turned up to vote but were turned away because of last minute voter roll purges by REPUBLICANS.

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... -the-rolls
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DL717
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:56 pm

seb146 wrote:
DL717 wrote:
CitizenJustin wrote:


Why can’t you accept that Hillary won the popular vote? The people of America did want her. Trump won key states by the tiniest of margins.


Popular vote is irrelevant. :banghead:

40% of eligible people didn’t show up to vote, meaning the majority didn’t want one or the other.


You would be surprised how many turned up to vote but were turned away because of last minute voter roll purges by REPUBLICANS.

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... -the-rolls


Well, at least your consistent. :roll:
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ltbewr
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:50 pm

As to the Electoral College, perhaps is should only be based on the number of House members each state has. DC would have the same number of votes for a state of similar population as to House members.That would mean a better balance, in the weight of the votes in particular the as to the smallest population states vs. the biggest but still keep the EC. It would be interesting how this idea would have affected recent Presidential elections.
 
bagoldex
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:58 pm

DL717 wrote:
So let wealth decide who rules? So you want a king then?


NIKV69 wrote:
Thus giving NY and CA voters all the power. No thanks.


I thought Republicans would appreciate a system where people are rewarded for their economic success instead of punished for it.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:25 pm

salttee wrote:
He lost the popular vote, it was a fluke that he won the electoral score. It will never happen again.


It's the second time in recent history that this has occurred. The first time 2000, the difference was a few hundred votes. This time it was three million. I would not be so sure that it will "never" happen again. Prior to this, the three instances were in the 1800s. But this time it happened twice in 16 years.

It is worth noting that if Florida's panhandle was just a couple hundred miles shorter and if the IL-WI border were moved about 6 miles north, Mrs. Clinton would have won. There is nothing holy about state borders; they were put in place either by natural landmarks (rivers, coasts, and such) or by arbitrary agreements that a state's border would end at a certain line of longitude or latitude.

I am nervous about this next election but not nearly as nervous as I was about this last one.
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salttee
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:09 pm

DocLightning wrote:
salttee wrote:
He lost the popular vote, it was a fluke that he won the electoral score. It will never happen again.


It's the second time in recent history that this has occurred. The first time 2000, the difference was a few hundred votes. This time it was three million. I would not be so sure that it will "never" happen again. Prior to this, the three instances were in the 1800s. But this time it happened twice in 16 years.

It is worth noting that if Florida's panhandle was just a couple hundred miles shorter and if the IL-WI border were moved about 6 miles north, Mrs. Clinton would have won. There is nothing holy about state borders; they were put in place either by natural landmarks (rivers, coasts, and such) or by arbitrary agreements that a state's border would end at a certain line of longitude or latitude.

I am nervous about this next election but not nearly as nervous as I was about this last one.

What I meant by "It will never happen again." is that Trump will never win a presidential election again.
I believe that a lot of the votes he got were from people who assumed that he was going to lose but wanted to make it a bit closer to scare the Dems: protest votes if you will.
He will never have as much help from Russian bots again.
He will never be able to beat the mantra "crooked Hillary" again, he will try that against any opponent for sure, but it will never resonate like it did in 2006.
He will never again have the FBI opening an investigation of his opponent two weeks before the election as it did against Hillary.

Then there's the record of his horrible presidency. He will of course please the people who hate Mexicans, but that's about all he's accomplished.
 
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seb146
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:14 pm

DL717 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
DL717 wrote:

Popular vote is irrelevant. :banghead:

40% of eligible people didn’t show up to vote, meaning the majority didn’t want one or the other.


You would be surprised how many turned up to vote but were turned away because of last minute voter roll purges by REPUBLICANS.

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... -the-rolls


Well, at least your consistent. :roll:


Was I not supposed to point out that African Americans were turned away at voting places because of Republicans? If Republicans truly cared about democracy, they would get their voter rolls in order right this second instead of waiting until October 2020. But, we know that will not happen because Republicans do not want anyone other than Republicans voting. They want a one party system.
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DL717
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:14 pm

ltbewr wrote:
As to the Electoral College, perhaps is should only be based on the number of House members each state has. DC would have the same number of votes for a state of similar population as to House members.That would mean a better balance, in the weight of the votes in particular the as to the smallest population states vs. the biggest but still keep the EC. It would be interesting how this idea would have affected recent Presidential elections.


I have a great idea! Let’s see how we can screw the smaller states out of being relevant in a Republic. That’ll teach ‘em.

If you want to make things relevant, then appoint the electors by the election results in each Congressional District. Senatorial electors go to the overall winner of each State.
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SAS A340
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:45 pm

The United States must be the only democratic country in the world where the one with the highest number of votes still can lose? Then D. Trump would never accept a loss, it is simply against his image of himself!!
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trpmb6
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:59 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
The United States must be the only democratic country in the world where the one with the highest number of votes still can lose? Then D. Trump would never accept a loss, it is simply against his image of himself!!


That's because we are intended to be more like a collection of independent states than a single country. Some similarities to the EU actually.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1901
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:36 pm

DL717 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
As to the Electoral College, perhaps is should only be based on the number of House members each state has. DC would have the same number of votes for a state of similar population as to House members.That would mean a better balance, in the weight of the votes in particular the as to the smallest population states vs. the biggest but still keep the EC. It would be interesting how this idea would have affected recent Presidential elections.


I have a great idea! Let’s see how we can screw the smaller states out of being relevant in a Republic. That’ll teach ‘em.

If you want to make things relevant, then appoint the electors by the election results in each Congressional District. Senatorial electors go to the overall winner of each State.
Give me a break. The ones being screwed right now are the voters in large states as their votes mean less in each presidential election.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:41 pm

DL717 wrote:
I have a great idea! Let’s see how we can screw the smaller states out of being relevant in a Republic. That’ll teach ‘em

A "state" is nothing more than a legal construct; surely you mean the people in a state, the people that make up the state.

Let's give them all the power due in a "one man one vote" system.

No more, No less.
 
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DL717
Posts: 2340
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 10:53 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:41 am

cledaybuck wrote:
DL717 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
As to the Electoral College, perhaps is should only be based on the number of House members each state has. DC would have the same number of votes for a state of similar population as to House members.That would mean a better balance, in the weight of the votes in particular the as to the smallest population states vs. the biggest but still keep the EC. It would be interesting how this idea would have affected recent Presidential elections.


I have a great idea! Let’s see how we can screw the smaller states out of being relevant in a Republic. That’ll teach ‘em.

If you want to make things relevant, then appoint the electors by the election results in each Congressional District. Senatorial electors go to the overall winner of each State.
Give me a break. The ones being screwed right now are the voters in large states as their votes mean less in each presidential election.


I really don’t think you understand the purpose of the Executive Branch. It’s not a popularity contest. He/She represents all States, not just the ones that have more people. What you’re complaining about is already provided to you by your Congressional reps.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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DL717
Posts: 2340
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 10:53 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:41 am

salttee wrote:
DL717 wrote:
I have a great idea! Let’s see how we can screw the smaller states out of being relevant in a Republic. That’ll teach ‘em

A "state" is nothing more than a legal construct; surely you mean the people in a state, the people that make up the state.

Let's give them all the power due in a "one man one vote" system.

No more, No less.


Yes. Down with the Republic!
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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DL717
Posts: 2340
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Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:42 am

SAS A340 wrote:
The United States must be the only democratic country in the world where the one with the highest number of votes still can lose? Then D. Trump would never accept a loss, it is simply against his image of himself!!


It’s a Democratic Republic. States matter.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:13 am

DL717 wrote:
salttee wrote:
DL717 wrote:
I have a great idea! Let’s see how we can screw the smaller states out of being relevant in a Republic. That’ll teach ‘em

A "state" is nothing more than a legal construct; surely you mean the people in a state, the people that make up the state.

Let's give them all the power due in a "one man one vote" system.

No more, No less.


Yes. Down with the Republic!

It’s a Democratic Republic. States matter.

If you under the impression that "republic" means a form of government where the whole is carved up into parts, you're wrong.
 
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monomojo
Posts: 87
Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:39 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:04 am

It's telling that the only argument that opponents to selecting the President by popular vote can come up with is that, for some reason, some people's vote should be more important than other's.
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:15 am

DL717 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
DL717 wrote:

I have a great idea! Let’s see how we can screw the smaller states out of being relevant in a Republic. That’ll teach ‘em.

If you want to make things relevant, then appoint the electors by the election results in each Congressional District. Senatorial electors go to the overall winner of each State.
Give me a break. The ones being screwed right now are the voters in large states as their votes mean less in each presidential election.


I really don’t think you understand the purpose of the Executive Branch. It’s not a popularity contest. He/She represents all States, not just the ones that have more people. What you’re complaining about is already provided to you by your Congressional reps.


You don’t seem to understand the purpose of the Electoral College. Put simply, it was set-up by our Founding Fathers because they didn’t trust common citizens to elect our leaders. Gradually, we DID move to a popularity system, with states’ committing their electoral votes to the winner of the states’ popular vote. The system worked for years, but because electoral votes are no longer wholly proportionate with the population, the winner of the popular vote has lost two of the past five elections. Talk of abolishing the EC is nothing new — Republicans advocated such when polling showed Bush would likely win the popular vote, but Gore would win the EC. When the reverse happen, suddenly they were happy.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 7802
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:21 pm

Reagan, at this point in the election cycle, was mired in a deep recession, hated by the media and Democrats every bit as much as Trump and stood st a 39% approval. He won 49 states two years later against a well known and liked Democrat. That’s a comment on political fortunes, not a 2020 prediction.

Hilary lost while winning the popular vote just like her husband won the Presidency while losing the popular vote (43%). So?

GF
 
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northstardc4m
Posts: 3455
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2000 11:23 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:17 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Hilary lost while winning the popular vote just like her husband won the Presidency while losing the popular vote (43%). So?



He didn't "lose the popular vote" he won the most votes of any candidate in 1992 (and so WON the popular vote):

Clinton 43% 44 909 889
Bush 37.4% 39 104 545
Perot 18.9% 19 743 821

VS in 2016:

Trump 46.1% 62 984 828
Clinton 48.2% 65 853 514
Last edited by northstardc4m on Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:19 pm

compensateme wrote:
DL717 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Give me a break. The ones being screwed right now are the voters in large states as their votes mean less in each presidential election.


I really don’t think you understand the purpose of the Executive Branch. It’s not a popularity contest. He/She represents all States, not just the ones that have more people. What you’re complaining about is already provided to you by your Congressional reps.


You don’t seem to understand the purpose of the Electoral College. Put simply, it was set-up by our Founding Fathers because they didn’t trust common citizens to elect our leaders. Gradually, we DID move to a popularity system, with states’ committing their electoral votes to the winner of the states’ popular vote. The system worked for years, but because electoral votes are no longer wholly proportionate with the population, the winner of the popular vote has lost two of the past five elections. Talk of abolishing the EC is nothing new — Republicans advocated such when polling showed Bush would likely win the popular vote, but Gore would win the EC. When the reverse happen, suddenly they were happy.


It seems like you might not know that electoral votes are reapportioned periodically. Each electoral vote represents about 600,000 people. But, because each state goes in FULL for the winner, Florida and Texas tip a HUGE number of electoral votes to the Republicans (above the voter count) if they happen to win those states. So a Florida swing voter counts for roughly 100-1,000 New York or California voters, in terms of actually impacted measured by electoral votes. We know that Florida does tip either way.
 
FatCat
Posts: 1038
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:02 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:28 pm

I'd bet € 100,- on a Trump re-election
Aeroplane flies high
Turns left, looks right
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1901
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:15 pm

Flighty wrote:
compensateme wrote:
DL717 wrote:

I really don’t think you understand the purpose of the Executive Branch. It’s not a popularity contest. He/She represents all States, not just the ones that have more people. What you’re complaining about is already provided to you by your Congressional reps.


You don’t seem to understand the purpose of the Electoral College. Put simply, it was set-up by our Founding Fathers because they didn’t trust common citizens to elect our leaders. Gradually, we DID move to a popularity system, with states’ committing their electoral votes to the winner of the states’ popular vote. The system worked for years, but because electoral votes are no longer wholly proportionate with the population, the winner of the popular vote has lost two of the past five elections. Talk of abolishing the EC is nothing new — Republicans advocated such when polling showed Bush would likely win the popular vote, but Gore would win the EC. When the reverse happen, suddenly they were happy.


It seems like you might not know that electoral votes are reapportioned periodically. Each electoral vote represents about 600,000 people. But, because each state goes in FULL for the winner, Florida and Texas tip a HUGE number of electoral votes to the Republicans (above the voter count) if they happen to win those states. So a Florida swing voter counts for roughly 100-1,000 New York or California voters, in terms of actually impacted measured by electoral votes. We know that Florida does tip either way.
Each electoral vote does not represent 600,000 people, it depends on the state. https://www.270towin.com/news/2017/01/2 ... FB6yU2Wyzk
But as you also mention, the electoral college system penalizes "extra" votes in states already won. Changing the margin in solidly red or blue states makes no difference. They only states that really matter are the swing states. Hence why no one ever campaigns in New York, Texas, or California. The majority of the population is simply ignored.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 14329
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:34 pm

After that dog and pony show on CNN with Harris I think his chances at a second term just got a little better. Keep dragging that party far left Kamala. Like I said you like Europe get on a plane and move there.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 7802
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:28 pm

Well, the majority voted for someone OTHER than Slick Willie
 
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casinterest
Posts: 13515
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:50 pm

Trump has issues going forward.
1. He is a known quantity now.
2. He is not draining the swamp. He is creating new ones
3. He is a racist
4. He is a liar
5.He does not hire the best people.
6. He is ruining America's standing in the rest of the world
6a. This is also ruining corporations in the rest of the world
7. Coal and manufacturing are still declining in use
8. Trump has no moved to the center as some hoped.
9. Trump is lazy and golf's way to much at his own companies resorts
10. Trump has created a social /cultural war that many do not want to retread.

I think Trump loses handily to any democratic candidate . This is what scares the GOP. Especially if his one bright spot of a solid economy goes to crap as the election nears.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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johnboy
Posts: 3150
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 9:09 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:19 pm

casinterest wrote:
Trump has issues going forward.
1. He is a known quantity now.
2. He is not draining the swamp. He is creating new ones
3. He is a racist
4. He is a liar
5.He does not hire the best people.
6. He is ruining America's standing in the rest of the world
6a. This is also ruining corporations in the rest of the world
7. Coal and manufacturing are still declining in use
8. Trump has no moved to the center as some hoped.
9. Trump is lazy and golf's way to much at his own companies resorts
10. Trump has created a social /cultural war that many do not want to retread.

I think Trump loses handily to any democratic candidate . This is what scares the GOP. Especially if his one bright spot of a solid economy goes to crap as the election nears.



Don’t forget - corrupt AF too!
 
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johnboy
Posts: 3150
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 9:09 pm

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:23 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
After that dog and pony show on CNN with Harris I think his chances at a second term just got a little better. Keep dragging that party far left Kamala. Like I said you like Europe get on a plane and move there.



Hmm. Highest-rated town hall ever.
Young, personable, intelligent, prosecutorial chops for those right-leaning, and progressive bona fides galore.

Yeah, I’d be spouting off nonsense and shitting my pants too if I were you. Keep it up, PLEASE. :bouncy:
 
NIKV69
Posts: 14329
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:32 pm

casinterest wrote:
Trump has issues going forward.
1. He is a known quantity now.
2. He is not draining the swamp. He is creating new ones
3. He is a racist
4. He is a liar
5.He does not hire the best people.
6. He is ruining America's standing in the rest of the world
6a. This is also ruining corporations in the rest of the world
7. Coal and manufacturing are still declining in use
8. Trump has no moved to the center as some hoped.
9. Trump is lazy and golf's way to much at his own companies resorts
10. Trump has created a social /cultural war that many do not want to retread.

I think Trump loses handily to any democratic candidate . This is what scares the GOP. Especially if his one bright spot of a solid economy goes to crap as the election nears.


I am not going to address all your points above. Some are not very accurate but he has disappointed in some areas and done well in others. As for losing handily to any Dem candidate that also short sighted and again why Hillary lost. To win in a general you have to run for something not against someone. Candidates like Harris and Warren etc can't carry Ohio and other states needed to win. The economy will be the key issue (it always is) but the Dems need to work on their message and stop the identity politics.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 13515
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:54 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump has issues going forward.
1. He is a known quantity now.
2. He is not draining the swamp. He is creating new ones
3. He is a racist
4. He is a liar
5.He does not hire the best people.
6. He is ruining America's standing in the rest of the world
6a. This is also ruining corporations in the rest of the world
7. Coal and manufacturing are still declining in use
8. Trump has no moved to the center as some hoped.
9. Trump is lazy and golf's way to much at his own companies resorts
10. Trump has created a social /cultural war that many do not want to retread.

I think Trump loses handily to any democratic candidate . This is what scares the GOP. Especially if his one bright spot of a solid economy goes to crap as the election nears.


I am not going to address all your points above. Some are not very accurate but he has disappointed in some areas and done well in others. As for losing handily to any Dem candidate that also short sighted and again why Hillary lost. To win in a general you have to run for something not against someone. Candidates like Harris and Warren etc can't carry Ohio and other states needed to win. The economy will be the key issue (it always is) but the Dems need to work on their message and stop the identity politics.


Ohio? ha. Ohio would be icing on the cake. All that has to happen is to shift Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin back to the Blue. FoxConn is doing a good job of that today in Wisconsin. Michigan is already gone back to Dem. Pa was a fluke that is already over thanks to the screw ups with Steel. Florida and NC are much more tangible targets than Ohio beyond those. Trump can't deliver on better pay and he is not delivering on making America Great. Those will be the tangible items to go after on Trump.

Here is an article from Michigan

"https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/michigan-2020-poll-trump-biden-sanders.html"


That Trump would lose a hypothetical 2020 matchup against Joe Biden by a 53–40 margin.

• That Trump would lose a hypothetical 2020 matchup against Bernie Sanders by a 52–41 margin.

Trump also lost matchups against Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren by smaller margins—but that’s because more respondents said they were undecided in head-to-heads involving the two lesser-known candidates, not because Trump got significantly more support himself against them than he did against Biden and Sanders.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
NIKV69
Posts: 14329
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Trump 2020 reelection chances

Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:10 pm

casinterest wrote:

Michigan is already gone back to Dem.
Here is an article from Michigan




Oh we are back to the mid term dictates the who wins the presidency Well I wish you luck but unless the Dems nominate Biden you will be looking at another bad election night.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
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