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Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:02 pm

It seems very calm indeed. Does anyone know what is happening in London? Are they actually using the extension to create some kind of solution?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:44 pm

in the meantime in Germany:

Image
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:51 pm

Dutchy wrote:
in the meantime in Germany:

Image


Newest poll: 76% in Germany are in favor of EU membership https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 64435.html
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:54 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
in the meantime in Germany:

Image


Newest poll: 76% in Germany are in favor of EU membership https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 64435.html


83% would vote no, if there was a Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:00 pm

Bostrom wrote:
It seems very calm indeed. Does anyone know what is happening in London? Are they actually using the extension to create some kind of solution?



There is going to be a lot of horse trading between the Government and labour as TM is continuing to try and get the WA over the line, Methinks that they will as they will not want Farage to get up in the EU elections if the polls are any real guide as it will throw enormous problems their way.as both mainstream want to tie us in with either the CU or SM


The major parties know they are on a hiding to nothing whichever way they go at the next GE, as I feel if the government gets its way and brings in a BRINO which the WA is voter turnout at the next GE I think will be the lowest on record since 1918

And just for a laugh, the German Green party seem to think it was a brilliant deception device by UK negotiators and not Michel Barnier………..

would allow a more reckless British prime minister to undermine the EU’s green and social standards while still keeping access to the European single market.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eport-says
 
VSMUT
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:22 pm

Dutchy wrote:
83% would vote no, if there was a Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.


Denmark looks like it is heading for a big pro-EU majority too. I suppose we can only thank the UK for that.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:16 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
83% would vote no, if there was a Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.


Denmark looks like it is heading for a big pro-EU majority too. I suppose we can only thank the UK for that.



What works for one dosnt mean it works for all, I’m happy that NL thinks it works for them. But the only way to know for sure tac it onto the next GE and ask the entire electorate not just a small sample which can be minipulated for polls.and no I’m not saying they are just that the can be.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:24 am

 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:31 am

Bostrom wrote:
It seems very calm indeed. Does anyone know what is happening in London? Are they actually using the extension to create some kind of solution?


:|
:smile:
:)
:D
:mrgreen:
:biggrin:
:lol:
:rotfl:

Hahahahhhhhh... ooohhhhhh... Oh deary me!

Good one! :bigthumbsup:
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:42 am

olle wrote:
https://www.pewglobal.org/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/pg_2019-03-19_views-of-the-eu_0-02/

All countries:


Well good for you, the only country that has taken it to the electorate is the UK, and the results of the UK referenda is the only result I have to worry about.

It’s funny how those same sort of polls predicted remain for the UK as well,
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:11 am

A101 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
83% would vote no, if there was a Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.


Denmark looks like it is heading for a big pro-EU majority too. I suppose we can only thank the UK for that.



What works for one dosnt mean it works for all, I’m happy that NL thinks it works for them. But the only way to know for sure tac it onto the next GE and ask the entire electorate not just a small sample which can be minipulated for polls.and no I’m not saying they are just that the can be.


Haha, you don't say it is manipulated, but you want to put some doubt in the mind of the reader. Man, you sound more and more like a troll to me. No faith in anything which contradicts with your opinion. I don't say that you are, just that you sound like one. :D

This is the attitude that we live with, don't do fact based politics, just feelings, I feel that Brexit is right for me, that the United Kingdom is going down is secondary at best.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:25 am

A101 wrote:
olle wrote:
https://www.pewglobal.org/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/pg_2019-03-19_views-of-the-eu_0-02/

All countries:


Well good for you, the only country that has taken it to the electorate is the UK, and the results of the UK referenda is the only result I have to worry about.

It’s funny how those same sort of polls predicted remain for the UK as well,

Don’t get too excited... The fast majority in Germany or Netherlands don’t want to leave the EU. Yes, a few changes are welcomed, but in the end the benefits of being part of the EU are enough to stay in. This isn’t the UK, which always has been some weird part of Europe. Being on an island for a long time does something to people....
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:36 am

marcelh wrote:
Being on an island for a long time does something to people....


And yet, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland are perfectly happy in the EU, so it must be something else ;-)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:42 am

Dutchy wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Being on an island for a long time does something to people....


And yet, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland are perfectly happy in the EU, so it must be something else ;-)

Touché! :rotfl:
It must have something to do with the history. A has been empire and worldpower and nowadays just one of the EU members. Damn, even the Krauts are more succesfull.
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:43 am

Bostrom wrote:
It seems very calm indeed. Does anyone know what is happening in London? Are they actually using the extension to create some kind of solution?


Theresa was marshalling a fun run and was on holiday in Wales.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:55 am

marcelh wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Being on an island for a long time does something to people....


And yet, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland are perfectly happy in the EU, so it must be something else ;-)

Touché! :rotfl:
It must have something to do with the history. A has been empire and worldpower and nowadays just one of the EU members. Damn, even the Krauts are more succesfull.



:checkmark: Correct, I think that is the mean reason, they owned the 19th century and now they are a middle sized country in Europe or one of the big countries in the largest trading block in the world. They have chosen the first.

You can see it in Russia as well, glorifying the past when they were one of the most important countries in the world and now a country with a small economy given its size, not that important. Apparently, it is hard to grasp this concept in the national psyche. We'll see how Americans are going to deal with this in 25 years.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 10:12 am

Dutchy wrote:
Apparently, it is hard to grasp this concept in the national psyche. We'll see how Americans are going to deal with this in 25 years.


The US can’t deal with it, they want to be a worldpower no matter what. Europe should become more independent. Europe are only “friends” of the US because it’s beneficiary to them.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 10:45 am

Dutchy wrote:
in the meantime in Germany:

Image


Good idea to not put that on a 737max :)
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Haha, you don't say it is manipulated, but you want to put some doubt in the mind of the reader. Man, you sound more and more like a troll to me. No faith in anything which contradicts with your opinion. I don't say that you are, just that you sound like one. :D

This is the attitude that we live with, don't do fact based politics, just feelings, I feel that Brexit is right for me, that the United Kingdom is going down is secondary at best.


Nope, all I’m saying is that a poll can be manipulated if one wanted a particular result, dosnt take a genius to figure out a favourable outcome if you already know a particular area already has favourable composition to the statistic your looking for. But as I said I don’t know if that’s what they where trying to achieve or not hence the reference to polls where suggesting a majority remain right up to an including early counting was still suggesting a remain win.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:31 pm

marcelh wrote:


Don’t get too excited... The fast majority in Germany or Netherlands don’t want to leave the EU. Yes, a few changes are welcomed,


Why would I get excited, it’s not my place to say to the other memberships if they should stay in or out that’s up to them to decide.

marcelh wrote:

but in the end the benefits of being part of the EU are enough to stay in. This isn’t the UK, which always has been some weird part of Europe. Being on an island for a long time does something to people....


You may have hit the nail on the head, I’ve never really felt I was part of mainland Europe
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:45 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Haha, you don't say it is manipulated, but you want to put some doubt in the mind of the reader. Man, you sound more and more like a troll to me. No faith in anything which contradicts with your opinion. I don't say that you are, just that you sound like one. :D

This is the attitude that we live with, don't do fact based politics, just feelings, I feel that Brexit is right for me, that the United Kingdom is going down is secondary at best.


Nope, all I’m saying is that a poll can be manipulated if one wanted a particular result, dosnt take a genius to figure out a favourable outcome if you already know a particular area already has favourable composition to the statistic your looking for. But as I said I don’t know if that’s what they where trying to achieve or not hence the reference to polls where suggesting a majority remain right up to an including early counting was still suggesting a remain win.


It doesn't take a genius to take some money, to give it to someone and say you need to post on a forum to reflect my political view or favorable for my side. I am not saying that you are taking money, all I am saying that it is possible and it is out there.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:00 pm

Dutchy wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Being on an island for a long time does something to people....


And yet, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland are perfectly happy in the EU, so it must be something else ;-)


Gibraltar was the only BOT included in the referenda, it was the greater UK and Gibraltar eligible to vote at the referenda, of course their are going to be areas that would have a majority remain as it was a national vote, and a national vote just isn’t one area, oh and Malta, Cyprus are independent sovereign nations don’t come under UK jurisdiction
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:06 pm

A101 wrote:
You may have hit the nail on the head, I’ve never really felt I was part of mainland Europe

Why are you downplaying the results of a poll then? You should use your time and energy to make a hard Brexit happen, instead of spreading your anti-EU cancer.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:11 pm

marcelh wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Apparently, it is hard to grasp this concept in the national psyche. We'll see how Americans are going to deal with this in 25 years.


The US can’t deal with it, they want to be a worldpower no matter what. Europe should become more independent. Europe are only “friends” of the US because it’s beneficiary to them.


Well some countries in Europe are still not convinced of that. Maybe Trump embargoing German cars will wake them up.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:16 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Being on an island for a long time does something to people....


And yet, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland are perfectly happy in the EU, so it must be something else ;-)


Gibraltar was the only BOT included in the referenda, it was the greater UK and Gibraltar eligible to vote at the referenda, of course their are going to be areas that would have a majority remain as it was a national vote, and a national vote just isn’t one area, oh and Malta, Cyprus are independent sovereign nations don’t come under UK jurisdiction


The British nationals living within the EU weren't allowed to vote. And now we will see if some erea's want to secrete from the UK because of this.

But anyhow, the comment I made about Malta, Cyprus and Ireland was that it isn't the fact that the UK is an island explains the Brexit vote, it is something else.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:28 pm

Dutchy wrote:


:checkmark: Correct, I think that is the mean reason, they owned the 19th century and now they are a middle sized country in Europe or one of the big countries in the largest trading block in the world. They have chosen the first.


It’s interesting to see that those outside the UK always seem to come to this conclusion, I don’t need to live in the past glories ofvthe British Empire although I’m glad we did contribute in making some fabulous independent nations that contribute on the world stage.



Dutchy wrote:
You can see it in Russia as well, glorifying the past when they were one of the most important countries in the world and now a country with a small economy given its size, not that important. Apparently, it is hard to grasp this concept in the national psyche. We'll see how Americans are going to deal with this in 25 years.



Well if you don’t think it’s that important why do you remain in NATO?

The EU should be able to handle as resurgent Russian federation since it’s so insignificant, don’t need the United States help, just increase defence spending without US/UK, the EU so great get that increased political union happening along with the EU defence force, all Europhile‘s should rejoice in a slender union.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:

It doesn't take a genius to take some money, to give it to someone and say you need to post on a forum to reflect my political view or favorable for my side. I am not saying that you are taking money, all I am saying that it is possible and it is out there.



Shhhh, don’t tell the HMRC about undeclared income :rotfl:
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:58 pm

marcelh wrote:
Why are you downplaying the results of a poll then?


All I suggested it might or might not be the will of those nations polls and the only country that actually has taken it to the electorate was the UK which is the only vote that really matters. I’m not the one living outside the UK telling UK citizens to change a result that they don’t like because it doesn’t suit their own needs, if any other member of the EU holds a referenda I’m not going to jump up and down if I don’t like the result it their decision


marcelh wrote:
You should use your time and energy to make a hard Brexit happen, instead of spreading your anti-EU cancer.


I’ve done my bit that was asked of me I voted, I’ll do my bit at the EU election if I have to and I’ll do my bit at the next GE I have expressed my position via email to my MP, but I’m not part of the rent a crowd mob and don’t feel the need to. I have no desire to go to other EU nations spread anti-EU sentiment as I don’t live in those countries it’s not my decision it’s theirs
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:19 pm

Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:47 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -says-poll

Public thinks EU referendum was bad idea, says poll
Opinium finds even Conservative voters on balance think it would have been better for UK not to have held vote
Sam Hall
More than half the public – 55% – now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.

Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).

Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.


It's always been a losing cause, but it's also increasingly an abandoned one.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:21 am

Klaus wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/27/public-thinks-eu-referendum-was-a-bad-idea-says-poll

Public thinks EU referendum was bad idea, says poll
Opinium finds even Conservative voters on balance think it would have been better for UK not to have held vote
Sam Hall
More than half the public – 55% – now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.

Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).

Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.


It's always been a losing cause, but it's also increasingly an abandoned one.


Sampled over 2weeks with a total of 2004 people out of 46.5mil eligible voters that’s 0.004%
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:03 am

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/27/public-thinks-eu-referendum-was-a-bad-idea-says-poll

Public thinks EU referendum was bad idea, says poll
Opinium finds even Conservative voters on balance think it would have been better for UK not to have held vote
Sam Hall
More than half the public – 55% – now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.

Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).

Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.


It's always been a losing cause, but it's also increasingly an abandoned one.


Sampled over 2weeks with a total of 2004 people out of 46.5mil eligible voters that’s 0.004%


I wasn't asked anything, so it is not valid - argument :roll:

Stop giving us arguments that are complete and utter wrong, you are better than that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:11 am

A101 wrote:
I don’t need to live in the past glories ofvthe British Empire although I’m glad we did contribute in making some fabulous independent nations that contribute on the world stage.

I hope you’re being sarcastic. Some parts of the world still “enjoying” the British contribution of their independent.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:24 am

More project fear:

Brexit threatens pound’s status as global currency, surveys says

Logical, the British Pound will take a hit. At least it will be cheaper to go to GB after Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:40 am

Dutchy wrote:
I wasn't asked anything, so it is not valid - argument :roll:

Stop giving us arguments that are complete and utter wrong, you are better than that.


It’s funny how if a poll/statistic is weighted in the remain favour in a pro remain publication its gospel, but if a rival broadsheet does the same thing from pro leave position it’s bagged to death by pro remainers, you can use statistic to show different outcomes using the same statistics it’s how it’s presented, and as I have said for some time polls were suggesting a remain victory leading up to the referenda but got it wrong.

All I did was show Klaus poll statistic with a statistic of what the entire eligible votes which showed that the sample is so small it almost insignificant. I tried to find the data behind the poll on the coverage and how it was conducted it’s that sort of information that is needed to evaluate the poll findings. I found the website that conducts the poll but could not find information that directly relates to that particular poll, I ran out of time as I had other things to do.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:13 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I wasn't asked anything, so it is not valid - argument :roll:

Stop giving us arguments that are complete and utter wrong, you are better than that.


It’s funny how if a poll/statistic is weighted in the remain favour in a pro remain publication its gospel,

Nobody says anything is "gospel" and where is your evidence for that poll being "weighted" in anybody's favour?

but if a rival broadsheet does the same thing from pro leave position it’s bagged to death by pro remainers,

So you've got no actual arguments here, only whining about imaginary slights?

you can use statistic to show different outcomes using the same statistics it’s how it’s presented,

Wrong. Correctly applied statistics are not at all arbitrary.

and as I have said for some time polls were suggesting a remain victory leading up to the referenda but got it wrong.

The 2016 referendum produced a tiny majority, effectively within the margin of error. The polls weren't far off.

All I did was show Klaus poll statistic with a statistic of what the entire eligible votes which showed that the sample is so small it almost insignificant.

You've "shown" exactly nothing here, actually, except that you have no idea how math works.

It is a popular misconception that what mattered was the percentage of all people polled, but that is simply untrue.

In actual fact, what matters is representative sampling and the absolute number of people polled to reduce the margins of error below a reasonable level, and for standard thresholds that number is about 1000-2000. In a large population it is almost irrelevant how large that population actually is – the margin of error is almost completely unaffected by that and depends almost entirely on the absolute sample size instead.

All this had already been explained to you guys several times when you went on your previous reality denial excursions, but I know, who needs experts any more...! :sarcastic:
 
Elshad
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:10 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
in the meantime in Germany:

Image


Newest poll: 76% in Germany are in favor of EU membership https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 64435.html
Dutchy wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
in the meantime in Germany:

Image


Newest poll: 76% in Germany are in favor of EU membership https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 64435.html


83% would vote no, if there was a Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.


Image
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:01 pm

Elshad wrote:
Image


Yes, that is one of the best political cartoons of the Brexit era.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:34 pm

Klaus wrote:
Nobody says anything is "gospel" and where is your evidence for that poll being "weighted" in anybody's favour?


If you go back thru the thread you will see polls that pro leave have posted and remainer’s have frothed at the mouth to discredit, if you believe in polls you can’t rave about one and not the other.
I did actually try to find how the poll was conducted but could not find the information on the demographics used

Klaus wrote:

So you've got no actual arguments here, only whining about imaginary slights?

Nothing imaginary about it if you care to look back

Klaus wrote:
Wrong. Correctly applied statistics are not at all arbitrary.

The poll in this case hasn’t actually shown the data, how do you know if it is correct or not

Klaus wrote:
The 2016 referendum produced a tiny majority, effectively within the margin of error. The polls weren't far off.


But it was still wrong, and just illustrates that polls aren’t gospel



Klaus wrote:
You've "shown" exactly nothing here, actually, except that you have no idea how math works.


Really 2004 people will represent the views of 46.5mill



Klaus wrote:
It is a popular misconception that what mattered was the percentage of all people polled, but that is simply untrue.

In actual fact, what matters is representative sampling and the absolute number of people polled to reduce the margins of error below a reasonable level, and for standard thresholds that number is about 1000-2000. In a large population it is almost irrelevant how large that population actually is – the margin of error is almost completely unaffected by that and depends almost entirely on the absolute sample size instead.



The margin of error for a survey is driven primarily by the sample size, then demographic and age group used in the survey even the type of survey used can lead to its own bias. Overrepresenting one area will lead to biased results and thus the margin of error larger in such small survey results.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:26 pm

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Nobody says anything is "gospel" and where is your evidence for that poll being "weighted" in anybody's favour?


If you go back thru the thread you will see polls that pro leave have posted and remainer’s have frothed at the mouth to discredit, if you believe in polls you can’t rave about one and not the other.
I did actually try to find how the poll was conducted but could not find the information on the demographics used

Klaus wrote:

So you've got no actual arguments here, only whining about imaginary slights?

Nothing imaginary about it if you care to look back

Klaus wrote:
Wrong. Correctly applied statistics are not at all arbitrary.

The poll in this case hasn’t actually shown the data, how do you know if it is correct or not

Klaus wrote:
The 2016 referendum produced a tiny majority, effectively within the margin of error. The polls weren't far off.


But it was still wrong, and just illustrates that polls aren’t gospel



Klaus wrote:
You've "shown" exactly nothing here, actually, except that you have no idea how math works.


Really 2004 people will represent the views of 46.5mill



Klaus wrote:
It is a popular misconception that what mattered was the percentage of all people polled, but that is simply untrue.

In actual fact, what matters is representative sampling and the absolute number of people polled to reduce the margins of error below a reasonable level, and for standard thresholds that number is about 1000-2000. In a large population it is almost irrelevant how large that population actually is – the margin of error is almost completely unaffected by that and depends almost entirely on the absolute sample size instead.



The margin of error for a survey is driven primarily by the sample size, then demographic and age group used in the survey even the type of survey used can lead to its own bias. Overrepresenting one area will lead to biased results and thus the margin of error larger in such small survey results.


You cannot reason with some people. They read tabloids and suddenly become experts.

It is a real pity we didn’t leave in March. We wouldn’t hear the same nonsense from these Europeans.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:19 am

noviorbis77 wrote:

You cannot reason with some people. They read tabloids and suddenly become experts.

It is a real pity we didn’t leave in March. We wouldn’t hear the same nonsense from these Europeans.



Too true, if we had left least we could all move on, the continued paralysis by government is not good for the country
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:07 am

Britains voting with their valet and avoiding the EU:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48087469

The people are speaking and they want nothing to do with the EU any more.
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:44 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
It is a real pity we didn’t leave in March. We wouldn’t hear the same nonsense from these Europeans.


Because the paper for newspapers could not be shipped to the UK anymore or because the UK would be cut off from the internet? Or because you would not have any money to buy access to any news?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:46 am

seahawk wrote:
Britains voting with their valet and avoiding the EU:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48087469

The people are speaking and they want nothing to do with the EU any more.


Translation, the real reason:

"The value of the pound there (against the lira), versus the euro (in eurozone countries) makes it a much better value holiday." He adds: "We will holiday in the UK in the summer and maybe look at Cyprus, Turkey or Dubai for autumn half term."


Pound dropped against the Euro thus holidays in the Eurozone are more expensive. A great result for the Brexiteers.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:50 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
You cannot reason with some people. They read tabloids and suddenly become experts.

It is a real pity we didn’t leave in March. We wouldn’t hear the same nonsense from these Europeans.


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Well played sir, reversing the argument. But I tend to agree, reading the Guardian and other papers, various EU-outlets, various remarks by professionals in the field, academics, did cloud my judgement a bit in saying that Brexit is complete and utter stupidity. Oh man, facts, you really should avoid them to be free to form your opinion on feelings, just feelings.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:47 am

Dutchy wrote:

Pound dropped against the Euro thus holidays in the Eurozone are more expensive. A great result for the Brexiteers.


Well currency exchange is a bit of a double edge sword, with the pound dropping against the euro your money dosnt go as far for holidays and so fourth. Imports into the UK are cheaper for any imports bought with the Euro, but on the other hand if the GBP reaches parity or falls below the Euro any UK exports become cheaper to buy from the EU which could help offset the decline in manufacturing in other words it may be cheaper to buy from the UK than other EU countries. Exchange rates always have there pro’s and con’s, it’s the country inflation rate that will have the most bearing in the future with UK/EU trade and exchange rates.

But for me I don’t go to any EU countries majority of my travels are either to AU or US and my money goes along way down under.
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:51 am

Of course it’s nothing to do with the blowback from the Turkish crisis last year.

Of course it’s nothing to do with the blowback from the Tunisian crisis last year.

Of course it has nothing to do with anxiety over EU access.


It’s all to do with the hatred that the UK has for the EU.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:59 am

As to the shift in holiday travel by people of the UK to non-EU nations, it is possible that as plans are and were made months ahead and that Brexit could have happened early in 2019, limiting access to the EU countries. It may, despite the value of the Euro vs. the Pound reduce travel by persons from the EU for the same reasons. I wonder if the Brexit issues will hurt travel to the UK from the USA and other countries, especially if economic instability, violence from the Brexit battles.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:38 am

A101 wrote:
But for me I don’t go to any EU countries majority of my travels are either to AU or US and my money goes along way down under.


If you travel to Australia and the USA you will face the same thing, the Pound has dropped against those currencies as well.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:32 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
But for me I don’t go to any EU countries majority of my travels are either to AU or US and my money goes along way down under.


If you travel to Australia and the USA you will face the same thing, the Pound has dropped against those currencies as well.


Not to mention getting to Australia is a lot more expensive than getting to the EU. :scratchchin:

But I'm sure we'd be happier if the Brextremists were all in Australia! :duck:
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