Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:08 am

KLDC10 wrote:
The UK is a net contributor to the EU Budget. The money spent in Wales by the EU is merely our own money, sent back with strings attached. We can spend it far better ourselves, without the middle man.


Rubbish. Succesive UK Govenments have shown utter incompetence in properly funding regions outside of the South East. EU money has been spent in areas Westminster doesn't care about. It's spent on youth projects, infrastructure, business parks, start ups.

Look at the numbers, provided by this govenment on what regional spending will be after EU funding is withdrawn!! Lets use Wales as an example: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wale ... s-16405082

See, the very people who voted strongest for Brexit will be hit the hardest. That has always been factually correct, and the Govenments own funding figures show it to be true going forward as well.

We are incapable of a nation of spending money properly, and most of the candidates for PM have a history of being utterly useless with budgets and numbers.

EU money is spent on areas, without influence from UK politicans on areas that need it. It works, and works well.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:27 am

KLDC10 wrote:
People earning up to 80,000GBP per year are not "the rich" - and certainly not if they live in London.


According to most economists and looking at average wages in the UK, if you earn above £50,000 you are considered a 'high earner'. Maybe it doesn't go far in London these days, but they don't need a tax break that will cost £9.6bn. Boris said this will be funded from the cancellation of no deal Brexit funds. Work that one out.

He also wants to cut business taxes. UK corporation tax is already incredibly competitve. Perhaps close the loopholes that mean multi-nationals don't pay what they should. I've run business in the UK for decades, I never had a problem with the tax rates. Business rates especially for high streets, sure slash them, but corporation tax does not need changing.

When you have millions of kids classed as living in poverty, a UN report slating the state of the country, the highest gap between the richest and poorest on record the one thing you do not do is cut taxes.Fix the sodding problems first, then look at cutting if you can afford it. The UK cannot afford it, and Brexit will only make the purse strings tighter. He's purely pandering to his voter base, over what the country needs.

If anything taxes will have to rise in the short term if a hard Brexit happens.


KLDC10 wrote:
Spending must be prioritised.


I thought that was what 'austerity' was for? Have we not had enough of that now? Is it not time to actually fix all the harm that has been done over the last few years?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:45 am

LJ wrote:
Chances of a no-deal Brexit are increasing as the French are already preparing the the news.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/11/no-renegotiation-withdrawal-agreement-french-minister


Yes, the French seems to be fed up with the British.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:
Chances of a no-deal Brexit are increasing as the French are already preparing the the news.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/11/no-renegotiation-withdrawal-agreement-french-minister


Yes, the French seems to be fed up with the British.


Well, wouldn't you?

The whole Brexit circus in the UK has been entertaining to watch from the continent for a while, but it's now getting to the point where the actors from the UK are just going over the same story lines over and over again….

I mean, BoJo is now trying to sell the idea he's going to (try to) renegotiate with Europe, AGAIN?
How many times has it been told this is not going to happen? Besides, who's he going to negotiate with?
There's no EU commission until shortly before the deadline expires!

Honnestly, all those British politicians act like salesmen showing up at your doorstep every single day, trying to sell you something absolutely fantastic you'd absolutely need too, even though you have told them already numerous times you won't buy it in a thousand years, time after time again.
At some point you just don't open your door any longer to any of them, do you?

The EU has long moved past Brexit: it actually served as a very nice reality check for all those who tried to ride the tide of euroscepticism to the point even the most ardent nationalists in Europe have now shut up on their country's exit from Europe and limit themselves to asking for -sometimes even commendable- reforms instead.

Prepare for a hard crash and absolute chaos in the UK, because BoJo's entire strategy seems to hinge on the idea that exit MUST happen and of October on whatever terms are available by then, while making sure he's high and dry when the day comes, hoping that he can stay afloat long enough after for people to forget all about it by the next election…
Great plan, isn't it? :crossfingers:

A Britain part of the EU could allow its 'top politicians' (sic) like DD, Fox, Raab and BoJo to toy around as kids while the EU kept the shop open, but a Britain on its own needs some far more serious leadership than what has been on display by any of these clowns who form today's official government (or its government-in-waiting too in fact)!
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:25 pm

Boris for PM is similar to Trump for President. He has the far right press on his side, paying him £750k a year already.

The EU is better off without the UK at this stage. I’ve said it for months. Enough is enough.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:41 pm

BestWestern wrote:
Boris for PM is similar to Trump for President. He has the far right press on his side, paying him £750k a year already.


Indeed. Telegraph came up with an amusing number today saying in a GE with BoJo as leader they would be on for a 130 seat majority. Hilarious.

Also this: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 55021.html Apparently leaked govenment info say's there is no way the country is ready for a no-deal brexit in October. :roll: :banghead:

I watched some of Rory Stewart's campaign launch speech yesterday. He is far more intelligent, lucid and sensible than almost all the other candidates. But he doesn't want no deal, so add that all together and there is no way he will win.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:37 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
I watched some of Rory Stewart's campaign launch speech yesterday. He is far more intelligent, lucid and sensible than almost all the other candidates. But he doesn't want no deal, so add that all together and there is no way he will win.


That's too bad, and I think you are right. He would be the perfect candidate to unite the country again and at the same time totally unacceptable far many Torrie party members.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:56 pm

It's no longer about what is best for the UK (has it ever been?), nor about coming up with a sensible sort of Brexit while still honouring the referendum result, it's now down to saving the Tory party from total implosion, hence any sort of Brexit is good enough for all those careerist who are going to be the only ones eligible to chose the next PM and thus government policy....

Indeed, the UK is not ready for a hard Brexit, but who ultimately cares in the Tory party?
As long as brexit is delivered, the Brexit Party who has trashed them at the polls has no more program to run on, or so they think....
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:56 pm

OK, Boris Johnson That £39bn is ours, so our Boris is lying again. The EU said in a reaction to this: if you don't pay your outstanding obligations, we will not engage in any trade negotiations. So the EU position remains the same, no new negotiations about the Withdraw agreement.

The press-release from the EU is an interesting read to see where the EU is with a no-deal Brexit.

In light of the continued uncertainty in the United Kingdom regarding the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement – as agreed with the UK government in November 2018 – and the overall domestic political situation, a ‘no-deal' scenario on 1 November 2019 very much remains a possible, although undesirable, outcome.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:58 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
It's no longer about what is best for the UK (has it ever been?), nor about coming up with a sensible sort of Brexit while still honouring the referendum result, it's now down to saving the Tory party from total implosion, hence any sort of Brexit is good enough for all those careerist who are going to be the only ones eligible to chose the next PM and thus government policy....

Indeed, the UK is not ready for a hard Brexit, but who ultimately cares in the Tory party?
As long as brexit is delivered, the Brexit Party who has trashed them at the polls has no more program to run on, or so they think....


Indeed, it is party before country, never been as clear as now. And with Boris, it is Boris before party, before country. Quite sad actually we don't have any politicians whom put country first, Rory Stewart might be the one whom is the exception to the rule.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:01 pm

Dutchy wrote:
OK, Boris Johnson That £39bn is ours, so our Boris is lying again. The EU said in a reaction to this: if you don't pay your outstanding obligations, we will not engage in any trade negotiations. So the EU position remains the same, no new negotiations about the Withdraw agreement.

The press-release from the EU is an interesting read to see where the EU is with a no-deal Brexit.

In light of the continued uncertainty in the United Kingdom regarding the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement – as agreed with the UK government in November 2018 – and the overall domestic political situation, a ‘no-deal' scenario on 1 November 2019 very much remains a possible, although undesirable, outcome.


It is not yours. According to the House of Lords Report, you are not legally entitled to a penny. It is a sum which has been included by two parties in an agreement which has yet to be ratified and currently has all the legal force of a pinky promise.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -say-lords
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:09 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
OK, Boris Johnson That £39bn is ours, so our Boris is lying again. The EU said in a reaction to this: if you don't pay your outstanding obligations, we will not engage in any trade negotiations. So the EU position remains the same, no new negotiations about the Withdraw agreement.

The press-release from the EU is an interesting read to see where the EU is with a no-deal Brexit.

In light of the continued uncertainty in the United Kingdom regarding the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement – as agreed with the UK government in November 2018 – and the overall domestic political situation, a ‘no-deal' scenario on 1 November 2019 very much remains a possible, although undesirable, outcome.


It is not yours. According to the House of Lords Report, you are not legally entitled to a penny. It is a sum which has been included by two parties in an agreement which has yet to be ratified and currently has all the legal force of a pinky promise.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -say-lords


So the Lords say..........

We'll see, if you want any kind of trade deal with the EU, you pay your obligations agreed upon by the two executives.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:45 pm

Dutchy wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
OK, Boris Johnson That £39bn is ours, so our Boris is lying again. The EU said in a reaction to this: if you don't pay your outstanding obligations, we will not engage in any trade negotiations. So the EU position remains the same, no new negotiations about the Withdraw agreement.

The press-release from the EU is an interesting read to see where the EU is with a no-deal Brexit.



It is not yours. According to the House of Lords Report, you are not legally entitled to a penny. It is a sum which has been included by two parties in an agreement which has yet to be ratified and currently has all the legal force of a pinky promise.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -say-lords


So the Lords say..........

We'll see, if you want any kind of trade deal with the EU, you pay your obligations agreed upon by the two executives.


Nonsense.

The French, Germans and Italians for one, will see a lot of job losses if we do not have a trade deal. A lot of car sales will go otherwise.

There will be a trade deal.

Regardless whether we chose to pay or not.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:16 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:

It is not yours. According to the House of Lords Report, you are not legally entitled to a penny. It is a sum which has been included by two parties in an agreement which has yet to be ratified and currently has all the legal force of a pinky promise.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -say-lords


So the Lords say..........

We'll see, if you want any kind of trade deal with the EU, you pay your obligations agreed upon by the two executives.


Nonsense.

The French, Germans and Italians for one, will see a lot of job losses if we do not have a trade deal. A lot of car sales will go otherwise.

There will be a trade deal.

Regardless whether we chose to pay or not.


I know you want to try, but the underlining premise: "they need us more then we need them" is only believed by the most extreme Brexiteers.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:33 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Nonsense.

The French, Germans and Italians for one, will see a lot of job losses if we do not have a trade deal. A lot of car sales will go otherwise.

There will be a trade deal.

Regardless whether we chose to pay or not.


AFAIK any trade deal with the EU needs to be approved by all 27 nations + Walloon government. I'm sure a t least one EU country doesn't want to take the bill for the British. Moreover, do you really think that any EU country will forfeit EUR40bn (which thus has to be paid by the remainder EU27 countries)? Oh yes, there is always the EU parliament who wants some money........
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:36 pm

Oh, not again all that nonsense about not paying the exit bill, please!

Not paying your depts will be considered a credit event by all rating agencies and trash the UK's credit rating overnight, right at a time when the UK government will have to increase spending (and thus borrowing) to alleviate the most painful consequences of a hard brexit… that sounds like another sound plan drawn up in a pub full of bigmouting and empty-headed delusional Brexiteers... let's take it to Brussels and see how it goes, right? Last time they all made a success of that strategy, didn't they?

I thought it was Corbyn who'd turn Britain into Europe's Venezuala according to the Tory mantra? ;)

If anything can split the Tory party (and the millionaires' club running it) in its unifying fear for total annihiliation over its shambolic handling of a self-inflicted wound, it's the fear their policies will squander their personal fortune: party over country they will have no problem going along with, but party over personal wealth, no way! Half the Tory party will be begging BoJo to pay the EU the full sum and much more too if needed the very moment their equity and asset management companies crash!


ROTFL
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:59 pm

Britain’s High Commissioner to Singapore on Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... r-diplomat

Wightman said that as a result of Brexit, the nation that Singaporeans “admired for stability, common sense, tolerance and realism grounded in fact, they see beset by division, obsessed with ideology, careless of the truth … I fear many around the world share their view.”

Wightman has been one of the UK’s most senior diplomats in Asia, first as Asia-Pacific director in the Foreign Office and then as the UK ambassador in Seoul, South Korea. He has been high commissioner in Singapore since 2015.

At his farewell speech marking the Queen’s birthday, Wightman made little reference to his true views apart from highlighting the considerable political uncertainty in the UK and his personal hope that the country would find the quality of leadership required.

In his note Wightman said: “Like posts across the network and departments in the UK, we’re performing minor miracles for UK interests faced with the utter political shambles of Brexit,” he said. Singaporean ministers are “mystified as to how our political leaders allowed things to get to this pass”.

He described the Singapore-UK Partnership for the Future, an initiative to improve ties that was launched by the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, in January, as being used in the “classic manner of the illusionist”.

Wightman said post-referendum political risk was now overseas investors’ “principal consideration”. He likened Brexit’s impact to the fall of Singapore in 1942, the largest British surrender in history and the battle that showed the “complacency and arrogance of colonial leadership”.

“It transformed their view of British imperialism,” he added. “Things were never the same again. The last three years have done the same for Singaporeans’ view of contemporary Britain.”
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:25 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Not paying your depts will be considered a credit event by all rating agencies and trash the UK's credit rating overnight, right at a time when the UK government will have to increase spending (and thus borrowing) to alleviate the most painful consequences of a hard brexit… that sounds like another sound plan drawn up in a pub full of bigmouting and empty-headed delusional Brexiteers... let's take it to Brussels and see how it goes, right? Last time they all made a success of that strategy, didn't they?


It isn't debt. Although, if you really did previously work for Sabena, it isn't really that much of a surprise that you wouldn't know what debt is if it jumped up in front of you.
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:25 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Not paying your depts will be considered a credit event by all rating agencies and trash the UK's credit rating overnight, right at a time when the UK government will have to increase spending (and thus borrowing) to alleviate the most painful consequences of a hard brexit… that sounds like another sound plan drawn up in a pub full of bigmouting and empty-headed delusional Brexiteers... let's take it to Brussels and see how it goes, right? Last time they all made a success of that strategy, didn't they?


It isn't debt. Although, if you really did previously work for Sabena, it isn't really that much of a surprise that you wouldn't know what debt is if it jumped up in front of you.


Correct it isn’t debt. The next forward EU budget is down for 2021/7 at the moment 6% of the EU budget goes to administration, including staff salaries, pension, buildings maintenance etc etc. So technically once we leave we are only in hock for programs or building projects running out to 2021, as we are no longer part of the institution from when we leave we are no longer liable for running administrative costs, any workers directly affected by the UK leaving will either receive a redundancy or be relocated within another area. So depending if we leave on the 31st October or when the transition period was supposed to finish our portion will look very different until we actually leave.


Credit agencies using the monetary value within the WA and using that amount to down grade our credit rating will leave them open for litigation as pending on when we actually leave we are not actually forfeiting on a loan or line of credit
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:35 am

A101 wrote:
Correct it isn’t debt. The next forward EU budget is down for 2021/7

That's not what this is about as you should know.

During the negotiations the UK acknowledged that during the time the UK was a member (so until now) it incurred a certain volume of obligations based ont he treaties on which that membership is based.

And those obligations have nothing to do with future budgets, they are the normal contributions which are required to reap the benefits of membership on the other side.

And the UK has enjoyed those benefits (and still does), so the obligations (a bunch of which are deferred, contrary to the benefits) are just as due.

It is not "debt" in the sense of a bank loan, but regular dues legally required to be paid all the same.

And the consequences of skipping out on those obligations are comparable to a regular default if the UK should actually choose to let it come to that.

I know that truthfulness, reliability and common decency count for nothing among the current UK political class during the general descent of the country into outright chaos , but this is getting a bit ridiculous by now.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:34 am

Klaus wrote:
That's not what this is about as you should know.

During the negotiations the UK acknowledged that during the time the UK was a member (so until now) it incurred a certain volume of obligations based ont he treaties on which that membership is based.

And those obligations have nothing to do with future budgets, they are the normal contributions which are required to reap the benefits of membership on the other side.

And the UK has enjoyed those benefits (and still does), so the obligations (a bunch of which are deferred, contrary to the benefits) are just as due.

It is not "debt" in the sense of a bank loan, but regular dues legally required to be paid all the same.

And the consequences of skipping out on those obligations are comparable to a regular default if the UK should actually choose to let it come to that.

I know that truthfulness, reliability and common decency count for nothing among the current UK political class during the general descent of the country into outright chaos , but this is getting a bit ridiculous by now.


If you read what I wrote you would have realised that the settelement money a great bulk of it is member contributions untill the transition period is over, so what that means is if we are no longer in the EU come October it’s only natural our settlement bill is reduced.

The settlement bill about 80% should have been paid by 2022 with the rest mostly being state pensions up to about 2060. Also it should also be said that the UK agreed to make contributions to the EDF untill the current program ends, this is contributed directly by member states and not the EU, so the settlement bill is not exactly black and white.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:12 am

Nobody is talking about continued payments for a transition period which wouldn't even happen with a no-deal Brexit. Those would of course not apply.

This is exclusively about those commitments which have originated in the membership up to the point of departure (which you clearly try to tiptoe around in this discussion) and refusing to pay up on those – which is what Boris is proposing – would be commensurate to the UK entering national default.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:36 am

Klaus wrote:
Nobody is talking about continued payments for a transition period which wouldn't even happen with a no-deal Brexit. Those would of course not apply.

This is exclusively about those commitments which have originated in the membership up to the point of departure (which you clearly try to tiptoe around in this discussion) and refusing to pay up on those – which is what Boris is proposing – would be commensurate to the UK entering national default.


The bill will be lowered by around 12bn in case of a hard Brexit. The damages to the UK economy will far exceed the 12bn. I understand that Johnson is focused on the devorce bill, talking about the consequences of a hard Brexit doesn't help his case to win the Premiership.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:33 am

What is funny is that some seems to fail to understand that theses roughly 39 billions over 7 years is peanuts when you have in mind that the EU GDP is close to 15 trillions a year. A 0,2 % impact is just a rounding error. But it tells a lot about how to deal with perfidious albion .....
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:24 am

Olddog wrote:
What is funny is that some seems to fail to understand that theses roughly 39 billions over 7 years is peanuts when you have in mind that the EU GDP is close to 15 trillions a year. A 0,2 % impact is just a rounding error. But it tells a lot about how to deal with perfidious albion .....

Indeed; Boris and others have completely unrealistic ideas about the leverage the UK might have with that. In real life we've got much, much bigger fish to fry and this won't be worth any fundamental concessions (such as throwing Ireland under the bus, which just won't happen).
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:31 am

Klaus wrote:
Nobody is talking about continued payments for a transition period which wouldn't even happen with a no-deal Brexit. Those would of course not apply.

This is exclusively about those commitments which have originated in the membership up to the point of departure (which you clearly try to tiptoe around in this discussion) and refusing to pay up on those – which is what Boris is proposing – would be commensurate to the UK entering national default.


Indeed, the 39BN bill consists of past liabilities and continued contributions over the transition period.
Skip the transition period and obviously no contributions for that period are due, however the past liabilities still stand...
BoJo's claim he'd not pay the bill at all is thus either:
1- lacking nuance and ment to just read 'part of the bill', in which case it's no threat at all, just a logical outcome and thus not worth mentioning
2- a deliberate lie to look strong, while promissing nothing brave at all
or,
3- a legal headache for a country who's hell-bent to sign deals with others to be seen brutally defaulting on past legally binding obligations unilaterally.


My bet is a combination of 1 (due to his character) and 2 (due to the campaign to become the next Tory leader); the money is going to be paid, maybe even cash in truckloads of those nice red dispatch boxes? Now that would be a nice addition by the EU to any newly negotiated WA BoJo is dreaming of, wouldn't it?
Can' wait to see the FrontPage of the Sun in that case, with the pictures of the convoy at the Port of Dover...
;)
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:45 am

Klaus wrote:
Nobody is talking about continued payments for a transition period which wouldn't even happen with a no-deal Brexit. Those would of course not apply.

This is exclusively about those commitments which have originated in the membership up to the point of departure (which you clearly try to tiptoe around in this discussion) and refusing to pay up on those – which is what Boris is proposing – would be commensurate to the UK entering national default.




Mate, I’m not trying to tip toe around nothing. I was trying to explain the settlement bill and if you have read my previous statements on the matter you will see I’m do not object to paying the divorce bill on either deal or no-deal it’s part and parcel of leaving the EU. Theirs no such thing as a free lunch someone allwas has to pay the bill, all Boris is trying to do is use that to get get back to the negotiations table.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:56 am

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Nobody is talking about continued payments for a transition period which wouldn't even happen with a no-deal Brexit. Those would of course not apply.

This is exclusively about those commitments which have originated in the membership up to the point of departure (which you clearly try to tiptoe around in this discussion) and refusing to pay up on those – which is what Boris is proposing – would be commensurate to the UK entering national default.




Mate, I’m not trying to tip toe around nothing. I was trying to explain the settlement bill and if you have read my previous statements on the matter you will see I’m do not object to paying the divorce bill on either deal or no-deal it’s part and parcel of leaving the EU. Theirs no such thing as a free lunch someone allwas has to pay the bill, all Boris is trying to do is use that to get get back to the negotiations table.


That is a stupid strategy.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:03 am

Problem for Boris with that 'strategy' as you call it is, A101, that:
1- there's no leverage in this threat because past obligations WILL be honoured, while future payments are on a' pro merite' basis, meaning that if there's no transitional period, there's no cost for the EU and it wont even ask the UK for the corresponding payment: it's already the deal now!?!
2- there's nobody in Brussels to theaten to come back to that table anyway because there's no new EU executive till close to Brexit date... or is BoJo going to beg for more time too once he's PM? At least Gove said he would, so I wouldnt be surprised BoJo will too...
Oh dear!
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:13 am

sabenapilot wrote:
or is BoJo going to beg for more time too once he's PM? At least Gove said he would, so I wouldnt be surprised BoJo will too...
Oh dear!


He says not. But then, given he's 95% bluster and buffoonery...
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:44 am

scbriml wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
or is BoJo going to beg for more time too once he's PM? At least Gove said he would, so I wouldnt be surprised BoJo will too...
Oh dear!


He says not. But then, given he's 95% bluster and buffoonery...


Given his track record, does anyone trust anything he says?
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:48 am

BestWestern wrote:
Britain’s High Commissioner to Singapore on Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... r-diplomat

Wightman said that as a result of Brexit, the nation that Singaporeans “admired for stability, common sense, tolerance and realism grounded in fact, they see beset by division, obsessed with ideology, careless of the truth … I fear many around the world share their view.”

Wightman has been one of the UK’s most senior diplomats in Asia, first as Asia-Pacific director in the Foreign Office and then as the UK ambassador in Seoul, South Korea. He has been high commissioner in Singapore since 2015.

At his farewell speech marking the Queen’s birthday, Wightman made little reference to his true views apart from highlighting the considerable political uncertainty in the UK and his personal hope that the country would find the quality of leadership required.

In his note Wightman said: “Like posts across the network and departments in the UK, we’re performing minor miracles for UK interests faced with the utter political shambles of Brexit,” he said. Singaporean ministers are “mystified as to how our political leaders allowed things to get to this pass”.

He described the Singapore-UK Partnership for the Future, an initiative to improve ties that was launched by the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, in January, as being used in the “classic manner of the illusionist”.

Wightman said post-referendum political risk was now overseas investors’ “principal consideration”. He likened Brexit’s impact to the fall of Singapore in 1942, the largest British surrender in history and the battle that showed the “complacency and arrogance of colonial leadership”.

“It transformed their view of British imperialism,” he added. “Things were never the same again. The last three years have done the same for Singaporeans’ view of contemporary Britain.”


He's completely correct. Everyone I speak to around the world on a weekly basis thinks the same, with the exception of some Americans.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:28 am

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
There will be a trade deal.

Regardless whether we chose to pay or not.


I know you want to try, but the underlining premise: "they need us more then we need them" is only believed by the most extreme Brexiteers.


QED...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:54 am

Dutchy wrote:
Indeed, it is party before country, never been as clear as now. And with Boris, it is Boris before party, before country. Quite sad actually we don't have any politicians whom put country first, Rory Stewart might be the one whom is the exception to the rule.


Out of all of them, Rory Stewart has impressed me the most with his pragmatism and being straight-talking about the current Brexit impasse. He even visited my home town a few weeks ago (a majority Leave-voting area and has had a Labour MP for 100 years). Both him and Matt Hancock are on the money by saying that no deal is disastrous and should not be an option whatsoever. They're both right in saying that Parliament needs to vote for something as the current impasse cannot go on, so the whole of Parliament is again just as responsible for the current shambles as the government.

The only thing I don't agree with Stewart on is the need to deliver Brexit, but at least he's not advocating leaving on 31st October 2019 without a deal like Esther McVey (whom I think is toxic for other reasons such as from her time at the DWP when there was a coalition government).

Unfortunately, I do not think Stewart will command enough support to become elected leader by the party, which will be a great shame because not only is he talking a lot of sense, he's actually getting out there and talking to the general public including in areas that usually vote Labour - something other politicians from all across the spectrum would do well to do.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:56 am

One more time The UK’s £39 Billion Brexit Bill


A few points on the £39 billion payment which the UK government has agreed to pay the EU as part of the withdrawal agreement.

This payment is regularly raised by Brexiters as a key negotiating issue. It is often claimed the £39 billion saved by refusing to make this payment will allow the UK to spent lots of money on important priorities e.g. Priti Patel says “we would also not need to hand £39 billion over to the EU, giving the Government resources to support economic growth, job creation and new trade opportunities.” It is also claimed the EU are very scared the payment won’t be made and will thus make last concessions to secure the money e.g. Daniel Moylan at BrexitCentral reckons “It is possible that the EU could give in, agreeing the wholesale removal of the Irish backstop from the text in exchange for the money on which they have so desperately counted.”

The reality, however, is that both sides of this argument – the benefit to the UK and the costs to the EU – tend to be wildly over-stated by Brexiteers. Here is a useful table from a House of Commons Library explainer on the topic, breaking down the different elements of the £39 billion.

Image

The table shows that the £38.7 billion bill includes £16.3 billion in contributions to the EU’s multi-annual budget during the transition period. During this period, the UK will continue to receive funding from EU programmes.The House of Commons Library report estimates the UK will receive about £8 billion of this funding back during 2019-20 in the form of payments to farmers, structural funds and funding for research (see page 8). These payments would not occur if there is no deal. This means the financial “benefit” to walking away from the withdrawal agreement would really be £31 billion, albeit at a cost of the UK being seen to have reneged on financial commitments it made to its EU partners.

Second, this net payment of £31 billion would be spread over time. Scrapping the additional net contributions to the EU budget would amount to saving of £4 billion per year this year and next. The rest of the payment is spread over time, with the bulk of it, £19.8 billion, being paid over 2021-28 and a smaller amount of £2.6 billion being paid over 2021-64. That works out to be a benefit of £2.5 billion per year over 2021-28 and £56 million per year thereafter until 2064.

How much will the UK government be able to do with this money? UK GDP was £2 trillion pounds in 2017. A trillion is one thousand billion, meaning the £4 billion savings this year and next would be one fifth of one percent of UK GDP and the £2.5 billion per year savings over 2021-28 would be about one eighth of one percent of UK GDP.

So while £39 billion may seem like a huge figure when quoted without context, the reality is that this will do very little to boost the spending power of the UK government. In fact, these numbers are well below the kinds of figure by which UK budgets often overshoot or undershoot doing to various random events without anyone paying much attention e.g. the OBR’s March 2017 forecast of the budget deficit over 2017/18 was £17 billion too high (see page 35). The dividend from not paying the Brexit bill will effectively be rounding error in the public finances.

And what about the EU27? The £2.5 billion net payment per year the EU would be losing over 2021-28 equates to €2.8 billion euro per year. EU27 GDP is estimated to be €14.538 trillion last year. That’s €14,538 billion. So this loss would equate to 0.02 percent of EU27 GDP per year for eight years. That’s one fiftieth of one percent of GDP. The idea that this tiny amount is being “desperately counted on” by the EU is laughable and anyone relying on the EU to fold because the UK won’t pay its “Brexit bill” will be sorely disappointed.

The bottom line on this issue is that, viewed from a macroeconomic perspective, the Brexit bill figures are tiny and people really should not believe that this bill represents an important part of the costs or benefits of Brexit for either the UK or the EU.

There is a wider issue here in relation to explaining macroeconomic issues to the public. Any figure larger than a few million seems to ordinary people to be “a lot of money”. So “£350 million pounds per week for the NHS” or “£39 billion to spend on whatever we want” seem like huge windfalls to a large fraction of the public who, let’s be fair, can’t be expected to know the actual totals for GDP or public expenditure. It’s thus important for those contributing to public debate to put raw macroeconomic numbers in an appropriate context.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:58 am

scbriml wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
or is BoJo going to beg for more time too once he's PM? At least Gove said he would, so I wouldnt be surprised BoJo will too...
Oh dear!


He says not. But then, given he's 95% bluster and buffoonery...


He says so now because he's having to show that the deadline at the end of October is a firm target in his mind and he's willing to stand strong on it: it's his whole sale pitch to the Tory MPs really, because he doesn't have a great plan or anything. Only the line 'I will Brexit on that date, no matter what', and thus pull the rug from under the Brexit Party which is currently the only thing that matters to many Tory MPs who feel they are about to lose their safe seat and thus career in Westminster.

But once he'd be in office, he'd be faced with the very stark choice to either leave pretty much unprepared and crash the economy and food chain of the UK overnight, or somehow mitigate the most Obvious damage of such a departure by going for some form of a technical extension once again: whether it's officially to renegotiate a deal, or to prepare for a no deal departure, that's probably up to the spin doctors who'd claim a 'no deal preparation period' is not another 'extension period', nor a 'transition period'. :drunk:

Anyway, at the pace all of this is going, there won't be any bill to be paid for any sort of a period anyway: the UK may well spend that entire period till the end of 2020 as a fully fledged and fully contributing memberstate. Another promise kept then on the non-payment, isn't it? ;)

With a more diplomatic PM the UK could probably count on yet another extension from the EU, but with a guy like BoJo in charge in London, several leaders in the EU are going to be very tempted to just let the UK feel the full heath of the kitchen… Macron is a given. BoJo won't even have to announce the UK will not seek an extension at the EU summit of October, the back of his trousers are probably going to show the imprint of the shoe of the French President long before that!
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:14 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48624579

Johnson tops the first round vote unsurprisingly, but with a big margin compared to second placed Jeremy Hunt. Mark Harper, Andrea Leadsom (who once claimed she would make a better PM than May "because she's a mother") and Esther McVey all out.

As an aside, it also means the next Prime Minister won't be a woman.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:18 pm

Results for first round of Tory leadership vote:

The results are in...

Michael Gove: 37
Matt Hancock: 20
Mark Harper: 10
Jeremy Hunt: 43
Sajid Javid: 23
Boris Johnson: 114
Andrea Leadsom: 11
Esther McVey: 9
Dominic Raab: 27
Rory Stewart: 19

Every MP voted, no spoiled ballot papers. Lowest three scores eliminated - Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom & Mark Harper.
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:27 pm

Rory Stewart's result is quite interesting: these are basically 19 MPs who say they will NEVER agree to a Brexit without a deal, potentially even willing to bring down the Tory government should any PM try to nevertheless. Some have hinted at such a rebellion (Greeve explicitly, Hammond implicitly), but it seems to carry enough weight to be taken very seriously since 19 is more than the very slim majority this government holds!
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:36 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Johnson tops the first round vote unsurprisingly, but with a big margin compared to second placed Jeremy Hunt.


Not much of a surprise, although I actually expected him to get a bigger share of the vote. It will be very interesting to watch what happens to that share as more candidates are eliminated.

If the Tory party and Brexit is a circus, the clown just took the fist step to getting elected as ringmaster.
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:45 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Rory Stewart's result is quite interesting: these are basically 19 MPs who say they will NEVER agree to a Brexit without a deal, potentially even willing to bring down the Tory government should any PM try to nevertheless. Some have hinted at such a rebellion (Greeve explicitly, Hammond implicitly), but it seems to carry enough weight to be taken very seriously since 19 is more than the very slim majority this government holds!


I'm not sure you can read that much into the first round result as there are far too many candidates. But it's interesting that nearly 2/3 of MPs voted for someone other than Johnson.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:59 pm

scbriml wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Rory Stewart's result is quite interesting: these are basically 19 MPs who say they will NEVER agree to a Brexit without a deal, potentially even willing to bring down the Tory government should any PM try to nevertheless. Some have hinted at such a rebellion (Greeve explicitly, Hammond implicitly), but it seems to carry enough weight to be taken very seriously since 19 is more than the very slim majority this government holds!


I'm not sure you can read that much into the first round result as there are far too many candidates. But it's interesting that nearly 2/3 of MPs voted for someone other than Johnson.


When will the second round be?
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Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:15 pm

Dutchy wrote:
When will the second round be?

On Tuesday, according to the BBC.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:53 pm

Matt Hancock is out of the race as well. He quits because, according to him, he is a person focused on the future and the Conservatives need someone from the "here and now". Or does it mean that he views that the person who becomes PM will mess up anyway and he opts to wait for a the next leadership challenge?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48631706
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:59 pm

LJ wrote:
Or does it mean that he views that the person who becomes PM will mess up anyway and he opts to wait for a the next leadership challenge?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48631706


Not an unwise strategy with Boris as a front runner.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:47 pm

I don't know who holds the record today, but the next PM might have the shortest tenure by far, making it look like May hanged on forever, in comparison.
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:13 pm

Aesma wrote:
I don't know who holds the record today, but the next PM might have the shortest tenure by far, making it look like May hanged on forever, in comparison.



Yeah the next PM will either sink or swim, I’m actually quite surprised so many put their hand up as no matter what out come they bring at the next GE I imagine they will be on a hiding to nothing.

While I detest Bojo he most likely thinks it his only chance to become PM.
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:13 pm

“We don’t expect our politicians, our prime ministers, to be saints. But we do require a basic level of morality and integrity. And of all the candidates in the Conservative party leadership election, Boris Johnson is the only one that I believe fails that test.”

Quote from the chairman of the conservative Muslim association.
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olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:41 am

BoJo => to become the shortest serving PM in UK history?
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:38 am

BestWestern wrote:
“We don’t expect our politicians, our prime ministers, to be saints. But we do require a basic level of morality and integrity. And of all the candidates in the Conservative party leadership election, Boris Johnson is the only one that I believe fails that test.”

Quote from the chairman of the conservative Muslim association.


Which basically guarantees he'll win given the anti-Muslim sentiment around Europe. He practically endorsed Boris with his comment.

BTW I recall that years ago Boris was a regular guest in Have I Got News For You. He predicted in the show he would become PM and everybody laughed at him about that statement. However, whether you like him or not, he seems to get want he wants.

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