Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 28, 2019 8:26 pm

This is something I had not expected: Japan urges UK to avoid no-deal Brexit. Foreign minister Taro Kono has asked both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to avoid a no deal.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:02 pm

Bostrom wrote:
This is something I had not expected: Japan urges UK to avoid no-deal Brexit. Foreign minister Taro Kono has asked both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to avoid a no deal.


Sure, a hard Brexit is a problem for everyone and the key to this problem lies with Downing street 10 and parliament.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:48 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
This is something I had not expected: Japan urges UK to avoid no-deal Brexit. Foreign minister Taro Kono has asked both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to avoid a no deal.


Sure, a hard Brexit is a problem for everyone and the key to this problem lies with Downing street 10 and parliament.


No, the key is in both sides need to sit down and re-enter negotiations, and they need to sort the future relationship at the same time, which will most likely solve the impasse on the Irish border in the WA.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:16 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
This is something I had not expected: Japan urges UK to avoid no-deal Brexit. Foreign minister Taro Kono has asked both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to avoid a no deal.


Sure, a hard Brexit is a problem for everyone and the key to this problem lies with Downing street 10 and parliament.


No it isn’t.
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:30 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
This is something I had not expected: Japan urges UK to avoid no-deal Brexit. Foreign minister Taro Kono has asked both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to avoid a no deal.


Sure, a hard Brexit is a problem for everyone and the key to this problem lies with Downing street 10 and parliament.


No, the key is in both sides need to sit down and re-enter negotiations, and they need to sort the future relationship at the same time, which will most likely solve the impasse on the Irish border in the WA.


Both sides negotiated and gave concessions. Both sides agreed.

The impasse on Northern Ireland was agreed in 2017. It’s called the backstop. This was a precondition to discussing the withdrawal agreement.

The UK changed its mind. The EU gave the UK 6 months to come up with a better plan.

Since then, the UK has done nothing on coming up with a better plan. The UK government have decided to spend close to three months on choosing a new leader - most possibly one that called the EU nazis and the French Turds. Then straight on vacation till September.

Bravo - great way to start winning friends.

The UK gets what it deserves at this rate.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:40 pm

BestWestern wrote:

Both sides negotiated and gave concessions. Both sides agreed.

The impasse on Northern Ireland was agreed in 2017. It’s called the backstop. This was a precondition to discussing the withdrawal agreement.

The UK changed its mind. The EU gave the UK 6 months to come up with a better plan.

Since then, the UK has done nothing on coming up with a better plan. The UK government have decided to spend close to three months on choosing a new leader - most possibly one that called the EU nazis and the French Turds. Then straight on vacation till September.

Bravo - great way to start winning friends.

The UK gets what it deserves at this rate.


No Theresa May agreed without consulting the very parliament that had to ratify the agreement, and then had the audacity to say it was the fault of parliament. Parliament is not just there as a rubber stamp, she had to present it to parliament before signing it and look at the implications on the agreement as it binds parliament in the future against our own constitution sovereignty
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:24 pm

Today a new FTA EU Mercosur was signed.

750 million people included into the FTit took 20 years to negotiate.
 
kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:00 am

olle wrote:
Today a new FTA EU Mercosur was signed.

750 million people included into the FTit took 20 years to negotiate.


But hey, don't worry, Brexiteers; you can execute just as favourable a deal (yeah, right!) ... might take a little while, though. Still, you have four months to squeeze some benefit out of the EU deal.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:40 am

kaitak wrote:
olle wrote:
Today a new FTA EU Mercosur was signed.

750 million people included into the FTit took 20 years to negotiate.


But hey, don't worry, Brexiteers; you can execute just as favourable a deal (yeah, right!) ... might take a little while, though. Still, you have four months to squeeze some benefit out of the EU deal.



I have to laugh when you come up with stuff like its some big new revelation, as you know we cant make any new agreements whilst still being a member of the EU and that includes if we signed the WA

And at the end of the day it has no impact on the UK as it still has to be ratified by the EU parliament and most likely will come into force after the UK leaves
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:04 am

olle wrote:
Today a new FTA EU Mercosur was signed.

750 million people included into the FTit took 20 years to negotiate.



I'm not sure what these have to do with our exit of the EU, is it supposed to influence us to stay in the EU
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:51 am

A101 wrote:
No, the key is in both sides need to sit down and re-enter negotiations, and they need to sort the future relationship at the same time, which will most likely solve the impasse on the Irish border in the WA.

This is exactly where UK misunderstood the situation completely. RE-enter negotiations? Well, in reality there never were any real "negotiations". Mr. Barnier told TM what options there are, and they made the WA based on that.

EU outer borders are EU outer borders. They vary upon 3rd country memberhip of SM and CU. The EU is not going to change the principles of SM and CU because memberhip number changes from 28 to 27.

If we imagine that one day there would be "real negotiations" about the principles of EU outer borders, then it would of course be a major issue among all EU27 countries. That "issue" never happened, and will not happen.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 6:58 am

prebennorholm wrote:

This is exactly where UK misunderstood the situation completely. RE-enter negotiations? Well, in reality there never were any real "negotiations". Mr. Barnier told TM what options there are, and they made the WA based on that.


No one misunderstood but TM certainly under estimated their importance during negotiations, a majority of the WA negotiations was for the divorce bill, their were deep seated difference of opinions within the UK negations team on how the negotiations were to take place


prebennorholm wrote:
EU outer borders are EU outer borders. They vary upon 3rd country memberhip of SM and CU. The EU is not going to change the principles of SM and CU because memberhip number changes from 28 to 27.


No ones is asking you to change the principles and the EU borders are just that borders, the start/end state of your regulatory controls. It was made quite clear by PM Cameron we will be leaving the CU/SM

prebennorholm wrote:
If we imagine that one day there would be "real negotiations" about the principles of EU outer borders, then it would of course be a major issue among all EU27 countries. That "issue" never happened, and will not happen.



Really never happened, seems to me Macron & Merkel have been put a lot of pressure on Varadkar about the border issue, but these are only because of the GFA where both the ROI and UK desire to have a frictionless border as possible which actually pre-dates both the ROI/UK joining the EEC
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:11 am

A101 wrote:
BestWestern wrote:

Both sides negotiated and gave concessions. Both sides agreed.

The impasse on Northern Ireland was agreed in 2017. It’s called the backstop. This was a precondition to discussing the withdrawal agreement.

The UK changed its mind. The EU gave the UK 6 months to come up with a better plan.

Since then, the UK has done nothing on coming up with a better plan. The UK government have decided to spend close to three months on choosing a new leader - most possibly one that called the EU nazis and the French Turds. Then straight on vacation till September.

Bravo - great way to start winning friends.

The UK gets what it deserves at this rate.


No Theresa May agreed without consulting the very parliament that had to ratify the agreement, and then had the audacity to say it was the fault of parliament. Parliament is not just there as a rubber stamp, she had to present it to parliament before signing it and look at the implications on the agreement as it binds parliament in the future against our own constitution sovereignty



The UK government negotiated and agreed on a deal.
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:01 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
This is something I had not expected: Japan urges UK to avoid no-deal Brexit. Foreign minister Taro Kono has asked both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to avoid a no deal.


Sure, a hard Brexit is a problem for everyone and the key to this problem lies with Downing street 10 and parliament.


No, the key is in both sides need to sit down and re-enter negotiations, and they need to sort the future relationship at the same time, which will most likely solve the impasse on the Irish border in the WA.


Now, that's an Interesting comment, in fact!

What makes you think an agreement on the future relationship would suddenly solve the problem of the Irish border?

The only way this can be the case, is if the future relationship achieves exactly the same thing as the WA's backstop would, meaning full allignment from the UK (or at least NI) on everything that is needed not to to have any physical borders on the Island of Ireland: that's exactly the backstop position, isn't it?

In which case you can just as well sign the current WA (including the backstop), because it's pretty much the template for the future relationship anyway….

Otherwise, al lthis nonsense is just a pretext to kick the can further down the road, AGAIN and to quickly exit WITHOUT any sort of a backstop for NI, leaving the possibility open that at some point the RoI and the EU find themselves faced with a problem at their outer border, because indeed, there's no alternative to the backstop, and the UK's off the hook to find it themselves.

Good try, but sadly Mr. Barnier is a bit smarter than the average Brexiteer: the backstop is to be the legal fallback position, and the UK is perfectly free to come up with and work out an alternative solution, IN DETAIL and BEFORE the backstop is to be activated: we're all still waiting for the first plan, btw. ;)
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:01 am

BestWestern wrote:

The UK government negotiated and agreed on a deal.



But its up to Parliament to pass and ratify it as an act of law, just as the EU parliament has to as well which as far as I know has not happened either.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:07 am

A101 wrote:
BestWestern wrote:

Both sides negotiated and gave concessions. Both sides agreed.

The impasse on Northern Ireland was agreed in 2017. It’s called the backstop. This was a precondition to discussing the withdrawal agreement.

The UK changed its mind. The EU gave the UK 6 months to come up with a better plan.

Since then, the UK has done nothing on coming up with a better plan. The UK government have decided to spend close to three months on choosing a new leader - most possibly one that called the EU nazis and the French Turds. Then straight on vacation till September.

Bravo - great way to start winning friends.

The UK gets what it deserves at this rate.


No Theresa May agreed without consulting the very parliament that had to ratify the agreement, and then had the audacity to say it was the fault of parliament. Parliament is not just there as a rubber stamp, she had to present it to parliament before signing it and look at the implications on the agreement as it binds parliament in the future against our own constitution sovereignty


ll very nice, but the EU does not deal with Parliaments, it deals with governments, as in fact any country does.
It's not the EU's problem that the Tory government doesn't really command a majority at home...
That's a domestic affair they need to sort out internally, not bother their international partners with.
HM Goverment signed up to a WA with the EU, period. If Parliament doesn't like it, it had to pass a vote of no confidence in the government to take it down.
Keeping confidence in the government but not agreeing to its policies is yet another example of a 'have our cake and eat it' approach which is endemic in British politics, it seems.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:22 am

A101 wrote:
BestWestern wrote:

The UK government negotiated and agreed on a deal.



But its up to Parliament to pass and ratify it as an act of law (…)


Again, that's a purely domestic legal issue and none of our business in the EU, really.
From the moment the WA takes effect, the UK won't be in the EU any longer and so the WA becomes an international treaty to which the Crown signs up, which is exactly what HM Government's Prime Minister Theresa May did under its royal prerogative.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:28 am

sabenapilot wrote:

Now, that's an Interesting comment, in fact!

What makes you think an agreement on the future relationship would suddenly solve the problem of the Irish border?

The only way this can be the case, is if the future relationship achieves exactly the same thing as the WA's backstop would, meaning full allignment from the UK (or at least NI) on everything that is needed not to to have any physical borders on the Island of Ireland: that's exactly the backstop position, isn't it?

In which case you can just as well sign the current WA (including the backstop), because it's pretty much the template for the future relationship anyway….

Otherwise, al lthis nonsense is just a pretext to kick the can further down the road, AGAIN and to quickly exit WITHOUT any sort of a backstop for NI, leaving the possibility open that at some point the RoI and the EU find themselves faced with a problem at their outer border, because indeed, there's no alternative to the backstop, and the UK's off the hook to find it themselves.

Good try, but sadly Mr. Barnier is a bit smarter than the average Brexiteer: the backstop is to be the legal fallback position, and the UK is perfectly free to come up with and work out an alternative solution, IN DETAIL and BEFORE the backstop is to be activated: we're all still waiting for the first plan, btw. ;)


The future relationship doesn't mean full alignment either, just as trade happens with third countries that have different food standards. Not much different from the Irish border



sabenapilot wrote:
[

ll very nice, but the EU does not deal with Parliaments, it deals with governments, as in fact any country does.
It's not the EU's problem that the Tory government doesn't really command a majority at home...
That's a domestic affair they need to sort out internally, not bother their international partners with.
HM Goverment signed up to a WA with the EU, period. If Parliament doesn't like it, it had to pass a vote of no confidence in the government to take it down.
Keeping confidence in the government but not agreeing to its policies is yet another example of a 'have our cake and eat it' approach which is endemic in British politics, it seems.



Wrong government provides the negotiating team but it still also has to negotiate indirectly with parliament as per A50 sect 1 " 1.Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements parliament has to ratify the agreement as I said they are not just a rubber stamp
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:43 am

A101 wrote:
The future relationship doesn't mean full alignment either, just as trade happens with third countries that have different food standards. Not much different from the Irish border


You are totally wrong as usual. If you want to export your goods to the EU you have to produce to standard, watever you produce for your own country.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:53 am

Olddog wrote:

You are totally wrong as usual. If you want to export your goods to the EU you have to produce to standard, watever you produce for your own country.


NO, your misrepresenting facts again. You were saying the future relationship that we(UK) will have to stay in full alignment of the EU with our own regulatory controls to export which is plain wrong, only the products that are being exported have to meet the standards of the EU.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:01 am

So in short, A101,
you genuinely believe the UK can have a WA-replacing FTA with the EU that allows:
- to have different standards AND
- an open border with the EU via the RoI?

:rotfl:

With ideas like that on what will be possible via a FTA, no wonder the EU is insisting on a backstop!

If you want to scap the backstop from the WA via the FTA that hopefully succeeeds it, this FTA will have to contain at least the same levels of integration between the UK and the EU as the backstop guarantees to remain in place in case of no FTA, so the border can stay open and goods produced to just 'British' standards are guaranteed to be identical to those produced to European standards for there to be no need for any checks on which types of goods are actually imported via NI.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:09 am

sabenapilot wrote:
So in short, A101,
you genuinely believe the UK can have a WA-replacing FTA with the EU that allows:
- to have different standards AND
- an open border with the EU via the RoI?

:rotfl:

With ideas like that on what will be possible via a FTA, no wonder the EU is insisting on a backstop!

If you want to scap the backstop from the WA via the FTA that hopefully succeeeds it, this FTA will have to contain at least the same levels of integration between the UK and thebEU as the backstop guarantees to remain in place in case of no FTA.


Having a cake and eat it........... Still hasn't sunk in what it actually means to leave the EU.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:15 am

This thread has become like the Tory leadership "race" for me - a colleague at work keeps reporting what stupid thing Boris or Hunt has said, but I don't care any more since every utterance has literally nothing to do with reality.

It's come down to just ignoring the noise and waiting for the inevitable implosion in October...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:31 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
This thread has become like the Tory leadership "race" for me - a colleague at work keeps reporting what stupid thing Boris or Hunt has said, but I don't care any more since every utterance has literally nothing to do with reality.

It's come down to just ignoring the noise and waiting for the inevitable implosion in October...


I think you are right: if one is determent to self destruct, no one can stop it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:52 am

sabenapilot wrote:
So in short, A101,
you genuinely believe ythe UK can have a WA-replacing FTA with the EU that allows:
- to have different standards AND
- an open border with the EU va the RoI?

:rotfl:


Yes I do, the EU already trades with nations that have different standards. I don't see those countries fully aligning themselves with the EU regulatory controls do you


You do realise that at present a border exists between the two countries for tax, VAT, currency, excise and security; these are managed using technologies without infrastructure at the physical border, nothing actually changes in the short term as the farming practices will not change overnight. live cattle imports already go thru checks when entering the NI so nothing actually changes, also when agriculture and food gets imported from third countries they go thru strict controls and certified before being exported by EU certified bio security inspectors, what's the difference if it comes from 10 or 10000 miles away and roughly 2-3% imports are checked when entering the EU as its physically imposable to check all of it.

You(EU) keep saying you want to keep the border frictionless the tech exists, the EU just refuses to recognise it as its not in their interest nothing more nothing less.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:33 am

Oh boy...

You still have a lot of reading up to do: 'trading freely' does not mean 'no customs checks'.
The technology does not exist to somehow magically unite the 2, otherwise it would have been in use at other EU borders with special status too: Norway, Turkey, Switzerland...
Either you have legal guarantees, or you have checks, period.

BTW- how far are you on the Swiss situation yet?
On Monday, the EU will demonstrate what it means to be cut off overnight because of a sudden loss of equivalence (initially just for their stock market) which is what you effectively are after for your dream FTA with the EU: mutual recognition of different foreign rules as being equivalent to yours.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:44 am

A101 wrote:
You(EU) keep saying you want to keep the border frictionless the tech exists, the EU just refuses to recognise it as its not in their interest nothing more nothing less.


Name 3 borders where it is truly frictionless, just electronically, and there are no visible signs.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 2:42 pm

Given Brexiter's willingness to cleave off the north of Ireland and Scotland, at this point the way forward would seem to put the trade border at the Irish Sea for all of Ireland, and then let Scotland do what it will, either stay in the UK or some sort of union with Ireland. Sounds odd but logic has its way. Either way, staying or switching would keep it in the EU.
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:55 pm

sabenapilot wrote:

You still have a lot of reading up to do: 'trading freely' does not mean 'no customs checks'.


No not at all, under normal circumstances we would not be talking about the issue, but due to the unique circumstances we are trying to achieve a different out come at the border, I have never said there will be no checks, checks does not mean it has to happen at the border.


sabenapilot wrote:

The technology does not exist to somehow magically unite the 2, otherwise it would have been in use at other EU borders with special status too: Norway, Turkey, Switzerland...
Either you have legal guarantees, or you have checks, period.


I have shown that it is feasible earlier with people who actually work at the coal face believe it can be done now, but needs total reliance on trust both sides and are currently working on achieving that outcome, but it takes two to tango


sabenapilot wrote:
BTW- how far are you on the Swiss situation yet?
On Monday, the EU will demonstrate what it means to be cut off overnight because of a sudden loss of equivalence (initially just for their stock market) which is what you effectively are after for your dream FTA with the EU: mutual recognition of different foreign rules as being equivalent to yours.



The Swiss situation and the UK are different kettles of fish, as said before the are unique circumstances on what the ROI wants and what the UK is trying to achieve, i’m not really fussed about custom checks to be done at the border as it doesn’t actually break the GFA.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:08 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Given Brexiter's willingness to cleave off the north of Ireland and Scotland, at this point the way forward would seem to put the trade border at the Irish Sea for all of Ireland, and then let Scotland do what it will, either stay in the UK or some sort of union with Ireland. Sounds odd but logic has its way. Either way, staying or switching would keep it in the EU.


Well Ireland already has a mechanism to leave the UK, I haven’t seen a big push to use it, but let’s say Scotland gets indie-ref 2 and choose to leave, what are you going to do about the border.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:26 pm

A101 wrote:
I have shown that it is feasible earlier with people who actually work at the coal face believe it can be done now, but needs total reliance on trust both sides and are currently working on achieving that outcome, but it takes two to tango


You haven't for the direct approach and the most optimistic scenario is 2030 and even then it will be some kind of electronics at the border. So I guess you are arguing to postpone Brexit to 2030.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:28 pm

A101 wrote:
The Swiss situation and the UK are different kettles of fish, as said before the are unique circumstances on what the ROI wants and what the UK is trying to achieve, i’m not really fussed about custom checks to be done at the border as it doesn’t actually break the GFA.


Yeah right, the UK is so special. Guess what, it isn't. After October 30th it will be just a 3rd country to the EU, unless the UK is willing to make a deal which acceptable to the EU.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 6:45 pm

A101 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Given Brexiter's willingness to cleave off the north of Ireland and Scotland, at this point the way forward would seem to put the trade border at the Irish Sea for all of Ireland, and then let Scotland do what it will, either stay in the UK or some sort of union with Ireland. Sounds odd but logic has its way. Either way, staying or switching would keep it in the EU.


Well Ireland already has a mechanism to leave the UK, I haven’t seen a big push to use it, but let’s say Scotland gets indie-ref 2 and choose to leave, what are you going to do about the border.


As many have confirmed, the EU will offer North Ireland special privileges and so long as it stays in the customs union it can also be part of the UK. As for Scotland, indeed they would have to consider what damages from leaving the UK and establishing a border. But that can be done without the 'Troubles'. It may result in Scotland not declaring independence. I do think that some sort of super majority (say 55-60%) should be required to make such a change as leaving the UK. And as any Brexit should have. Big consequential changes should not generally be made with a narrow majority, it invites chaos.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:02 pm

Dutchy wrote:

You haven't for the direct approach and the most optimistic scenario is 2030 and even then it will be some kind of electronics at the border. So I guess you are arguing to postpone Brexit to 2030.


I prefer to take the advice of someone who has worked in the industry and is familiar with the tech, and they are talking 18mts but it requires extensive collaboration from both sides, something which is lacking at Brussels
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Yeah right, the UK is so special. Guess what, it isn't. After October 30th it will be just a 3rd country to the EU, unless the UK is willing to make a deal which acceptable to the EU.



Ah where did I ever say the UK was special mm.......that’s all we want to be a third country out of the EU, and I sincerely hope that will be the case come the 31st October
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:33 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

You haven't for the direct approach and the most optimistic scenario is 2030 and even then it will be some kind of electronics at the border. So I guess you are arguing to postpone Brexit to 2030.


I prefer to take the advice of someone who has worked in the industry and is familiar with the tech, and they are talking 18mts but it requires extensive collaboration from both sides, something which is lacking at Brussels



So you do want to be special. And the 18month I do not believe and you have not provided that it can be done with no visual thinks on the border.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:34 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Yeah right, the UK is so special. Guess what, it isn't. After October 30th it will be just a 3rd country to the EU, unless the UK is willing to make a deal which acceptable to the EU.



Ah where did I ever say the UK was special mm.......that’s all we want to be a third country out of the EU, and I sincerely hope that will be the case come the 31st October


Yes, you do want to be special, you want all kinds of special thinks, or at least the Brexiteers want that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:35 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:

As many have confirmed, the EU will offer North Ireland special privileges and so long as it stays in the customs union it can also be part of the UK.



And what are these so called special privileges? ......All I see is the EU wanting to take control of UK sovereign territory, and NI stays in the same regulatory controls nothing special in that.



frmrCapCadet wrote:

As for Scotland, indeed they would have to consider what damages from leaving the UK and establishing a border.



I said it before that I believe that that NI has the better chance of making a success out of leaving the UK.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
It may result in Scotland not declaring independence. I do think that some sort of super majority (say 55-60%) should be required to make such a change as leaving the UK.



Unfortunately the precedence has been set on first past the post




frmrCapCadet wrote:

as any Brexit should have. Big consequential changes should not generally be made with a narrow majority, it invites chaos.



Cameron had these options before him to use a double majority, but he didn’t think he was going to lose and placed too much emphasis on opinion polls
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:03 pm

Dutchy wrote:

So you do want to be special.



NO I don't want to be special as you put it, but both sides have agreed that there are special circumstances that must be taken into consideration

Dutchy wrote:

And the 18month I do not believe and you have not provided that it can be done with no visual thinks on the border.



I not going to tell you what you should believe or try to put words in your mouth, and yes I have provided the link sometime ago. As I said I will believe someone in the industry over someone who is not.
 
Ertro
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:16 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
So in short, A101,
you genuinely believe the UK can have a WA-replacing FTA with the EU that allows:
- to have different standards AND
- an open border with the EU via the RoI?


I still do not understand how the electronic system could work so please A101 could you explain what kind of electronic device attached to where could solve this problem:

First assume the good situation: farm A producing raw meat that does meet EU standards and that raw meat is transported to a factory that produces some packaged food products that are going to be exported to EU frictionlessly. So far everything is good.

What if this same factory takes in a second shipment of raw meat from farm B that has not produced meat meeting EU standards?

Where are the electronic devices attached in the raw meat and how do the electronic devices follow the meat through the factory pipes and cooking pots into the packaged products so that EU compliant raw meat does not mix with EU noncompliant raw meat without the electronic devices noticing that the factory is cheating and mixing wrong kind of raw meat into the products?

Please take into consideration that EU does not want to start inspecting factories deep inside UK territory for every food shipment going in and out.
EU also does not like to rely on UK inspecting factories for food shipments to notice and flag non-EU compliant food going into the factory as EU could assume UK officials is not going to be most vigilant enforcing some EU rules that UK has just shown they very much hate and want to get rid of following them. So no checking of the factory everyday operation deep inside UK territory by either EU or UK official personnel is possible.

So how does the system work? Where are the electronic devices attached to and how do they notice that the factory is cheating?
 
sbworcs
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:42 pm


Parliament has exercised the sovereignty that Brexiteers claim we don't have. I love the irony.


They want Parliamentary sovereignty - just not yet!
The best way forwards is upwards!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:20 am

Ertro wrote:
I still do not understand how the electronic system could work so please A101 could you explain what kind of electronic device attached to where could solve this problem:

First assume the good situation: farm A producing raw meat that does meet EU standards and that raw meat is transported to a factory that produces some packaged food products that are going to be exported to EU frictionlessly. So far everything is good.

What if this same factory takes in a second shipment of raw meat from farm B that has not produced meat meeting EU standards?

Where are the electronic devices attached in the raw meat and how do the electronic devices follow the meat through the factory pipes and cooking pots into the packaged products so that EU compliant raw meat does not mix with EU noncompliant raw meat without the electronic devices noticing that the factory is cheating and mixing wrong kind of raw meat into the products?

Please take into consideration that EU does not want to start inspecting factories deep inside UK territory for every food shipment going in and out.
EU also does not like to rely on UK inspecting factories for food shipments to notice and flag non-EU compliant food going into the factory as EU could assume UK officials is not going to be most vigilant enforcing some EU rules that UK has just shown they very much hate and want to get rid of following them. So no checking of the factory everyday operation deep inside UK territory by either EU or UK official personnel is possible.

So how does the system work? Where are the electronic devices attached to and how do they notice that the factory is cheating?



First of all I don't profess to being an expert in customs control or slaughterhouse procedures, the EU has produced guidelines on traceability from cradle to the grave on agricultural products, just like they do for all third countries as well as internally. The agricultural market in Australia, New Zealand and the USA produces products for both markets do you think that the UK is incapable of doing the same.

As to the border issues the actual product is not tagged, their are a number of ways the container or vehicle can be tracked either thru automatic number plate recognition system, RFID or GPS, hell GPS can even tell you when the container door was opened temp of the product for its entire length the journey , hell they can even track the diagnostics of a truck or airplane whilst its moving. But when someone with over two decades of custom experience and is familiar with the technology says it can be done I tend to believe them as they are subject matter experts in there field

As to inspections prior to shipping pre shipment inspections are carried out via the relevant authority Fees and charges at no cost to the EU are applied for services provided by the relevant authority, including: •regulatory services, including biosecurity and export certification do you also think the UK is incapable of doing that
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:55 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

You haven't for the direct approach and the most optimistic scenario is 2030 and even then it will be some kind of electronics at the border. So I guess you are arguing to postpone Brexit to 2030.


I prefer to take the advice of someone who has worked in the industry and is familiar with the tech, and they are talking 18mts but it requires extensive collaboration from both sides, something which is lacking at Brussels

Your fully fictitious "solution" could only work if there was an extremely high level of trust in the UK which could only be assured if the Backstop was in full operation. It's a simple as that.

Given the open declaration of the UK's intention to go back on its word regarding the Good Friday Agreement and even on standing financial commitments there is simply no basis for any trust at all without a massive legal framework to back it up – even offering the Backstop itself is already a substantial concession by the EU in that light, and pretty much the limit of how far it goes.

You and some other UK voters are clearly putting your blind trust into scoundrels and con men like Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage and now obviously into "someone in the industry" who's selling you a bill of goods, but that is your own mistake and the EU won't copy such insanity.
Last edited by Klaus on Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:07 am

A101 wrote:
First of all I don't profess to being an expert in customs control or slaughterhouse procedures, the EU has produced guidelines on traceability from cradle to the grave on agricultural products, just like they do for all third countries as well as internally. The agricultural market in Australia, New Zealand and the USA produces products for both markets do you think that the UK is incapable of doing the same.

They find it a major headache to prove compliance with EU regulations, which is why imports from there are very limited.

As to the border issues the actual product is not tagged, their are a number of ways the container or vehicle can be tracked either thru automatic number plate recognition system, RFID or GPS, hell GPS can even tell you when the container door was opened temp of the product for its entire length the journey , hell they can even track the diagnostics of a truck or airplane whilst its moving.

None of that proves anything of any value regarding compliance with EU regulations. If that's all you're bringing to the table you're empty-handed!

But when someone with over two decades of custom experience and is familiar with the technology says it can be done I tend to believe them as they are subject matter experts in there field

None of these things are worth anything without full trust in every single player in the entire production chain actually seriously enforcing EU standards, and with the UK deliberately ditching compliance with EU regulations (which is the main argument by the Leave proponents, after all!) that trust simply can't exist, so all that pseudo-magical technology is simply worthless.

As to inspections prior to shipping pre shipment inspections are carried out via the relevant authority Fees and charges at no cost to the EU are applied for services provided by the relevant authority, including: •regulatory services, including biosecurity and export certification do you also think the UK is incapable of doing that

A UK deliberately removing itself from the EU's standards and regulations will no longer be able to perform such assurances which is why all that is just blowing smoke into the eyes of UK voters – nobody in the EU has ever believed a word of this even just for a minute.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:55 am

Klaus wrote:
Your fully fictitious "solution" could only work if there was an extremely high level of trust in the UK which could only be assured if the Backstop was in full operation. It's a simple as that.


by crikey that's a revelation, now tell me something I didn't know


Klaus wrote:
Given the open declaration of the UK's intention to go back on its word regarding the Good Friday Agreement


Back to this old chestnut, again show me where we are violating the GFA, no one can actually tell me where

Klaus wrote:
and even on standing financial commitments


Where is the treaty ratified by both EU/UK parliaments that actually say we are defaulting on our commitment?

Klaus wrote:
there is simply no basis for any trust at all without a massive legal framework to back it up –

off course there is none at the moment

Klaus wrote:
even offering the Backstop itself is already a substantial concession by the EU in that light, and pretty much the limit of how far it goes.


By golly that's a big concession on your part, we get to follow all the regulatory controls of the EU including the membership fees for an indefinite amount of time without having a seat at the table and still not be able to make our own free trade agreement all the while still accepting laws generated in the EU and still being subject to the ECJ

WOW that's a big concession hey

Klaus wrote:
You and some other UK voters are clearly putting your blind trust into scoundrels and con men like Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage and now obviously into "someone in the industry" who's selling you a bill of goods, but that is your own mistake and the EU won't copy such insanity.


:rotfl: :rotfl:
 
A101
Posts: 1016
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:18 am

Klaus wrote:
They find it a major headache to prove compliance with EU regulations, which is why imports from there are very limited.


Really care to show us some examples, but I'll tell you why exports are limited its called protectionism

Klaus wrote:
None of that proves anything of any value regarding compliance with EU regulations. If that's all you're bringing to the table you're empty-handed!


So is that an admission that the EU was not going look into frictionless border proposals if we signed the WA?

Klaus wrote:
None of these things are worth anything without full trust in every single player in the entire production chain actually seriously enforcing EU standards, and with the UK deliberately ditching compliance with EU regulations (which is the main argument by the Leave proponents, after all!) that trust simply can't exist, so all that pseudo-magical technology is simply worthless.


Nothing would be getting exported to the EU if you didn't have trust in your suppliers now would they, as you would not be ordering anything. you do realise that beef export suppliers have to meet conditions of the European Union Cattle Accreditation Scheme (EUCAS)
http://agriculture.gov.au/export/contro ... er-3/eucas

Klaus wrote:
A UK deliberately removing itself from the EU's standards and regulations will no longer be able to perform such assurances which is why all that is just blowing smoke into the eyes of UK voters – nobody in the EU has ever believed a word of this even just for a minute.


Other countries can why not the UK?
 
Ertro
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:34 am

A101 wrote:
As to inspections prior to shipping pre shipment inspections are carried out via the relevant authority Fees and charges at no cost to the EU are applied for services provided by the relevant authority, including: •regulatory services, including biosecurity and export certification do you also think the UK is incapable of doing that


UK is clearly not incapable.
The question is whether UK has any *MOTIVATION* to continue enforcing EU rules when:

- Whole UK hates EU and EU rules and regulations
- It is cheaper for UK to not do the inspections at all or very lazily with too little manpower rubberstamping stuff that violates EU rules.
- UK can export more stuff to EU if it also exports that stuff that violates EU regulations.
- If EU complaints that there is wrong kind of stuff coming from UK The Sun is going to write some headline that mocks EU and whole UK sings hurrah.
- EU has zero mechanisms to punish the UK inspectors that are not doing their job.
- EU has no way of stopping the 10% of shipments that are in violation of the rules unless there are inspections at border for everything.
- EU Cannot start inspecting everything and EU cannot one day decide to close all borders to UK.

Notice a difference for example to Canada.
- Canada does not hate EU or EU rules.
- If EU complains there is wrong kind of stuff coming from Canada there are no newspapers in Canada writing to mock EU and no masses of people rejoicing in the streets singing how much they hate EU and are happy that EU is complaining.
- EU can block 100% of the shipments at port if Canada does not play ball.
- Canada understands that in order to keep exporting anything they need to play ball.
- EU can trust that Canada plays ball.
- EU can do inspections at EU ports and EU does inpections at ports for stuff coming overseas.
- If Canada does not play ball EU can close EU borders to everything Canadian and problem solved.
- Closing the border to everything Canadian is not any real problem to EU so that is a very realistic possibility.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:20 am

Ertro wrote:
A101 wrote:
As to inspections prior to shipping pre shipment inspections are carried out via the relevant authority Fees and charges at no cost to the EU are applied for services provided by the relevant authority, including: •regulatory services, including biosecurity and export certification do you also think the UK is incapable of doing that


UK is clearly not incapable.
The question is whether UK has any *MOTIVATION* to continue enforcing EU rules when:

- Whole UK hates EU and EU rules and regulations
- It is cheaper for UK to not do the inspections at all or very lazily with too little manpower rubberstamping stuff that violates EU rules.
- UK can export more stuff to EU if it also exports that stuff that violates EU regulations.
- If EU complaints that there is wrong kind of stuff coming from UK The Sun is going to write some headline that mocks EU and whole UK sings hurrah.
- EU has zero mechanisms to punish the UK inspectors that are not doing their job.
- EU has no way of stopping the 10% of shipments that are in violation of the rules unless there are inspections at border for everything.
- EU Cannot start inspecting everything and EU cannot one day decide to close all borders to UK.

Notice a difference for example to Canada.
- Canada does not hate EU or EU rules.
- If EU complains there is wrong kind of stuff coming from Canada there are no newspapers in Canada writing to mock EU and no masses of people rejoicing in the streets singing how much they hate EU and are happy that EU is complaining.
- EU can block 100% of the shipments at port if Canada does not play ball.
- Canada understands that in order to keep exporting anything they need to play ball.
- EU can trust that Canada plays ball.
- EU can do inspections at EU ports and EU does inpections at ports for stuff coming overseas.
- If Canada does not play ball EU can close EU borders to everything Canadian and problem solved.
- Closing the border to everything Canadian is not any real problem to EU so that is a very realistic possibility.



Wow I’m nearly speechless, so you think NI is going to risk it’s long term trade with the ROI because it might not want to follow EU import regulations, it seems to me the you are looking for a solution in search of a problem.

In the case of beef/ cattle exports to the EU there is a large financial/regulatory penalty to set up the requirements agricultural standards to export to the EU and can take many years to set up from scratch, i hardly think they will willingly risk that investment. But that’s not the case here the system is already in place and on record.
Last edited by A101 on Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
bennett123
Posts: 8864
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:21 am

Apparently the new PM will be announced in the week commencing 22 July. Not sure of the exact date.

On 25 July Parliament goes on 6 weeks holiday. Hard to see much progress towards any agreement in those few days. Even if the announcement is made on 22 July, it will take a couple of days to form a new Government.

On 6 September they come back for a week, then the Party Conference Season starts.

When that is over they have a couple of weeks before the deadline.

Unless they delay those jollies, it is hard to believe that they are not seeking a No Deal Brexit. Perhaps that was the plan all along.
 
Ertro
Posts: 37
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:53 am

A101 wrote:
Wow I’m nearly speechless, so you think NI is going to risk it’s long term trade with the ROI because it might not want to follow EU import regulations, it seems to me the you are looking for a solution in search of a problem.

In the case of beef/ cattle exports to the EU there is a large financial/regulatory penalty to set up the requirements agricultural standards to export to the EU and can take many years to set up from scratch, i hardly think they will willingly risk that investment. But that’s not the case here the system is already in place and on record.


I believe any system currently in place is based on ECJ having jurisdiction over it. After UK refuses to allow any EU meddling in "UK sovereignty" those are not going to work any more.

I am not talking about what happens in NI only but in the whole UK including exports into France from south coast UK.

There is no way some official is going to travel to every factory for every outgoing shipment as that must be hugely expensive and timeconsuming but it must be some employee from the site doing the inspections. Those people might wery well want to skirt the rules to allow the factory to make a fortune to put money in everybodys pocket shipping goods that are noncompliant to EU rules.

Are you sure there are no dodgy businessmen in south coast UK wanting to make big money?

A101 wrote:
Wow I’m nearly speechless, so you think NI is going to risk it’s long term trade with the ROI because it might not want to follow EU import regulations


The whole UK seems it does not want to follow EU regulations and does not seem to mind very much risking its long term trade with EU with possible "No deal".

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