sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:52 am

A101 wrote:
As for tariffs I’d actully leave them as per the schedule, I’m sure those country that have made mutual recognition agreements will be happy to fill the void from more expensive EU products


And you think they are able to just start to deliver the vast quantities of supplies the UK now sources from the EU, provided they even have the ability to grow them?
I'm sure Botswana is ready to deliver the equivalent of €700M worth of tomatos per year to the British consumers, as from November for instance!
Weird that they haven't planted them yet then is it, but probably that's just a detail, right?
Seriously….

Besides, it's not just about food import: whole Industrial supply chains are going to be wrecked by this… expect plant closures.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:56 am

So on the one hand, the EU tells the UK that the WA is not up for re-negotiation and the only reason they grant the UK an extension to October 31st is to get the WA ratified in parliament.

Yet on the other hand, I read in the Guardian article:

"It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan."


and

“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative,” a diplomat concluded of the discussion.


So first you tell the UK not to bother coming up with an alternative plan as the WA and backstop are not negotiable, and then you blame the UK for not coming up with an alternative plan?

My guess is that EU is starting to get scared of being blamed for a hard Brexit by the general public. So now they suggest that the backstop would have been negotiable, if only the UK had come up with a plan.

(Not excusing Boris Johnson here. Boris Johnson should have had a plan ready to go. The fact that he does not have one confirms that the UK has the wrong leader at the moment)
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:00 am

Dutchy wrote:

It should put fear in your eyes, the UK government have absolutely no idea what they are doing if this comes as a surprise to them. Even reading through these post would have given them a better preparation than they apparently have gotten. They are gambling with the future of the UK for the next 30 years or so and they don't know the bare minimum.


Im fully awere that we are in for a rough spell, I’m still optimistic about our future


Dutchy wrote:
This, in essence, is the difference between the Brexitremist and the EU mindset: win - loose versus win - win.

A no deal is a loose - loose, but the loss on the UK will be much greater, you had almost no leverage, and that is what the Brexitremist seem to deny, deny reality for "Britenia rules the waves" 19th century mentality.



Everyone likes to win at something: doctors, lawyers, police and politicians and no the EU mindset is no different all politicians are all the same no matter what flag they serve under
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:04 am

AeroVega wrote:
So on the one hand, the EU tells the UK that the WA is not up for re-negotiation and the only reason they grant the UK an extension to October 31st is to get the WA ratified in parliament.

Yet on the other hand, I read in the Guardian article:

"It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan."


and

“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative,” a diplomat concluded of the discussion.


So first you tell the UK not to bother coming up with an alternative plan as the WA and backstop are not negotiable, and then you blame the UK for not coming up with an alternative plan?

My guess is that EU is starting to get scared of being blamed for a hard Brexit by the general public. So now they suggest that the backstop would have been negotiable, if only the UK had come up with a plan.

(Not excusing Boris Johnson here. Boris Johnson should have had a plan ready to go. The fact that he does not have one confirms that the UK has the wrong leader at the moment)


I consider that EU27 populations by now do not blame the EU institutions for the mess. England might be another story, but by now EU27 populations has given up and want it over with.

I also think that NI and ROI will under long time in the future recognize that EU tried to avoid to throw them under the bus. This will be blamed on London not Brussels.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:04 am

scbriml wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
After three years you still think anyone among the Brexiteers cares if low income families can afford food and stuff?


Of course not. Brexit is driven by the 1%ers who have a lot to gain from us leaving the EU. They care nothing about the impact it will have on ordinary people because they will be immune to the effects. Sadly, plenty of people fell for the three card trick.


But hold on a minute: the day after the referendum we were supposed to hold ALL the cards, dixit M. Gove!

Oh, and we were free to chose whatever type of relationship with the EU we wanted, again, dixit the same genious.

Well, the first one has meanwhile been disproven and while the latter claim may be true theoretically, clearly the 1% make the choice for the remaining 99%: they will turn Britain into a US slyle economy with very low social, consumer and environmental protection standards, and dismantle the NHS in the process. it's going to be 'mandatory' to 'make a success of Brexit', just like the people surely wanted it, right? But let's no ask them, ever again, please! ;)

Yep, the Tory fatcats and top sponsors love the prospect for sure as they will become even whealthier than they already are: living their American dream in the UK!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:06 am

Brexit people and newspapers in England has at it seems taht in the moment A50 was triggered the goal of Brussels was to protect EU27 and does not work for UK interests.

It seems like Brexit England blames Brussels for not protecting UK interests. Why?
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:09 am

You lost all leverage when you sent article 50 letter.

You committed collective suicide when the lancaster house speech was your testament.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:16 am

AeroVega wrote:
So on the one hand, the EU tells the UK that the WA is not up for re-negotiation and the only reason they grant the UK an extension to October 31st is to get the WA ratified in parliament.

Yet on the other hand, I read in the Guardian article:

"It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan."


and

“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative,” a diplomat concluded of the discussion.


So first you tell the UK not to bother coming up with an alternative plan as the WA and backstop are not negotiable, and then you blame the UK for not coming up with an alternative plan?



The WA is the only outcome possible following the UK's very own red lines as they were put forward by TM in her Lancaster House speech.

If the UK wants another outcome and thus changes to the WA, then it has to review its red lines first!
For instance: if the UK decides it wants to stay in the SM and CU with the EU, then the EU will take out all those elements from the WA which deal with a UK as a third country out of the CU and the SM: That's not a political renegotiation, it's a technical and automatic adaptation of the WA to any new plan from Britain.

A renegotiation is the political expression of the persuit of the very same red lines, while expecting another type of WA to come out of it: doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting a different outcome is a clear sign of insanity…
(A. Einstein, who I'd value a fair bit higher than for instance M. Gove)

AeroVega wrote:
My guess is that EU is starting to get scared of being blamed for a hard Brexit by the general public. So now they suggest that the backstop would have been negotiable, if only the UK had come up with a plan.

Why should the EU be scared of perception in the UK?
The People in the EU are perfectly well informed on Brexit and all of the consequences of it to see it is a massive cockup of purely British making, which is why no populistic nationalist in the EU is daring to entertain his voters with the idea of his country's own exit from the EU any more: that's finished, gone, taken off the table…
There's a good reason the Brexit Party of Farage hasn't found a fraction in the EP to join, you know? Nobody in the EU wants to become associated with the 'success of exiting the EU' when it finally materialises! :cry2:
As to what the British people think of the EU: why should the EU still bother? The UK is soon going to start to feel the full weight of the EU as a foreign power anyway when Britain tries to enter into negotiations on a FTA with it as a sovereign nation: just ask others how nice the armtwisting feels when they come up negotiating with the biggest trading block in the world?
Going by all the illusions the British still make themselves, it's going to be an extremely painful experience indeed!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:42 am

The EU does not care anymore what the UK tabloids are saying. They use the EU as a scapegoat for all the internal UK mess for 40 years anyway.

The EU could have a problem is the rest of the world was thinking that the UK was right but besides Breitbart gang and russians trolls the whole world thinks the UK has lost its mind....
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:50 am

sabenapilot wrote:
The WA is the only outcome possible following the UK's very own red lines as they were put forward by TM in her Lancaster House speech.


Not true. The famous staircase diagram that Barnier presented in response to UK's red lines clearly shows a Canada/Korea-style free trade agreement as the logical outcome of Brexit. So that should have been the backstop.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:06 am

AeroVega wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
The WA is the only outcome possible following the UK's very own red lines as they were put forward by TM in her Lancaster House speech.


Not true. The famous staircase diagram that Barnier presented in response to UK's red lines clearly shows a Canada/Korea-style free trade agreement as the logical outcome of Brexit. So that should have been the backstop.


You're clearly much confused!

The staircase shows all the different forms of cooperation available to the UK, but only AFTER an orderly Brexit.

The UK first has to conclude the withdrawal in an orderly way and for that the WA is based on the British red lines as well as all sorts of other legal commitments from the past, like for instance the GFA.

Anyway, it's a bit late to find out the UK has stupidly cornered itself in with all it has promises to all different fractions and different countries over time, isn't it?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:22 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
I’m saying under XXI we are keeping the Irish border open for goods in transit.


for which there is no precedent, as every single one of them was about restricting trade with one specific country, and even those will likely find itself in front of a WTO resolution panel, as several WTO members are pressing for it. So, you are looking at ~10 years uncertainty and potential retaliation along the way....

Of course applying Art XXI is a funny proposition, as under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties treties have to be applied in good faith. Now claiming harm can only be undone by invoking Art XXI after unnecessary, in the sense of unforced, having created the "problem" yourself isn´t exactly "good faith".....

best regards
Thomas



Everything has to have a first and there dosnt have to actully be a precedent, International law recognise that nation have a right to override their obligations to defend national security interests.

By arguing the case that invoking XXI Security Exceptions will go against our obligations under the WTO and the UN Charter to maintain international peace and security, if you don’t think the UK is acting in good faith to suspend our obligations to ensure the the peace and security of NI then you don’t believe the there is scope for a return of the Troubles, and if that’s the case why then does the EU insists on a backstop for NI if you don’t think thecUK has a legitimate claim to XXI Security Exceptions?
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:40 am

A101 wrote:
By arguing the case that invoking XXI Security Exceptions will go against our obligations under the WTO and the UN Charter to maintain international peace and security, if you don’t think the UK is acting in good faith to suspend our obligations to ensure the the peace and security of NI then you don’t believe the there is scope for a return of the Troubles, and if that’s the case why then does the EU insists on a backstop for NI if you don’t think thecUK has a legitimate claim to XXI Security Exceptions?


A much simpler solutution than testing the validity of all this legal science fiction, would be to simply accept the original form of the backstop, just like TM did.
Remember the backstop was just limited to NI alone and it would thus have allowed for (the rest of) the UK do persue whatever type of (hard) Brexit it wanted, fully in line with all the red lines as well as all of the international obligations under GFA, WTO and others!
Only little issue was that the DUP is stongly against the idea of a different regime for NI (unless it suits them of course) and is sadly crucial in propping up a minority Tory government, so the Conservatives suddenly had to rediscover they were allegedly unionists too, after being reduced to an "England only" party for all those years!
Anyway, the DUP doesn't speek for the majority of the people in NI who have voted in favour of remaining in the EU and who have a legal right to self-determination under the GFA.

Why not simply throw back the issue to the people of NI, not necesarily under a referendum on reunification with the RoI, but rather just on whether the NI backstop is acceptable to them?
The rest of the UK should have no immediate business with this in fact, since it is -in principle- fine with fulll sessession of NI even should they want so.
The idea NI can freely decide on that all by themselves, but not something less far reaching is mindblowing, especially as it would offer a very elegant way out of this whole mess, without any loss of face for the UK... but of course, the Conservatives would lose their majority and thus power, and we've come to learn this is far more precious than anything else to them, including the Lancaster red lines or even the Union itself!!!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:14 am

sabenapilot wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
So on the one hand, the EU tells the UK that the WA is not up for re-negotiation and the only reason they grant the UK an extension to October 31st is to get the WA ratified in parliament.

Yet on the other hand, I read in the Guardian article:

"It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan."


and

“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative,” a diplomat concluded of the discussion.


So first you tell the UK not to bother coming up with an alternative plan as the WA and backstop are not negotiable, and then you blame the UK for not coming up with an alternative plan?



The WA is the only outcome possible following the UK's very own red lines as they were put forward by TM in her Lancaster House speech.

If the UK wants another outcome and thus changes to the WA, then it has to review its red lines first!
For instance: if the UK decides it wants to stay in the SM and CU with the EU, then the EU will take out all those elements from the WA which deal with a UK as a third country out of the CU and the SM: That's not a political renegotiation, it's a technical and automatic adaptation of the WA to any new plan from Britain.

A renegotiation is the political expression of the persuit of the very same red lines, while expecting another type of WA to come out of it: doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting a different outcome is a clear sign of insanity…
(A. Einstein, who I'd value a fair bit higher than for instance M. Gove)

AeroVega wrote:
My guess is that EU is starting to get scared of being blamed for a hard Brexit by the general public. So now they suggest that the backstop would have been negotiable, if only the UK had come up with a plan.

Why should the EU be scared of perception in the UK?
The People in the EU are perfectly well informed on Brexit and all of the consequences of it to see it is a massive cockup of purely British making, which is why no populistic nationalist in the EU is daring to entertain his voters with the idea of his country's own exit from the EU any more: that's finished, gone, taken off the table…
There's a good reason the Brexit Party of Farage hasn't found a fraction in the EP to join, you know? Nobody in the EU wants to become associated with the 'success of exiting the EU' when it finally materialises! :cry2:
As to what the British people think of the EU: why should the EU still bother? The UK is soon going to start to feel the full weight of the EU as a foreign power anyway when Britain tries to enter into negotiations on a FTA with it as a sovereign nation: just ask others how nice the armtwisting feels when they come up negotiating with the biggest trading block in the world?
Going by all the illusions the British still make themselves, it's going to be an extremely painful experience indeed!


EU always said regarding GFA, that they can talk about replacement of the backstop but then UK must suggest workable replacement. Following the "EU stairway" a Norway based model would work or only include NI inside SM.

But UK demand to be outside the stairway and therefore the backstop is the only solution.

So no alternative plan, No backstop -> No deal it is.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:36 am

Olddog wrote:
The EU could have a problem is the rest of the world was thinking that the UK was right but besides Breitbart gang and russians trolls the whole world thinks the UK has lost its mind....

To contrast : international journalists sharing their thoughts about how their country now view the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... is-johnson
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
Ertro
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:28 am

AeroVega wrote:
My guess is that EU is starting to get scared of being blamed for a hard Brexit by the general public.


This is nothing but fantasy floated by british tabloids.

Pretty much everybody in EU thinks that UK has gone mad and is committing suicide. There is no disagreement about this even on my EU country local messageboards that have very lively discussion about every political topic on earth but for brexit there is pretty close to zero discussion. Even the trolls don't bother with brexit issues as they know that this is one topic where they are not going to get any traction with any pro-brexit viewpoints.

What differs is opinions how to get out from this mess. It is only political and economical elite and some newspapers that talks about agreements and negotiations saying it would be nice to have some kind of smooth path forward.

The people on the street do not think this. The people on the street are 60% apathetic and cannot see any path forward. 20% thinks UK should just cancel brexit. 20% thinks only through hardest of hard brexit there is some hope UK finally can be brought back into senses. There is absolutely nobody on the streets thinking politicians are not doing enough to smooth the brexit effect. And pretty much nobody is discussing any of these things even on trollish EU country local political messageboards where waves go high on most other issues like who is to blame for Ukraine and whether Trump is the best president of all times or other stuff most of which is local national politics.
Last edited by Ertro on Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:33 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
I’m saying under XXI we are keeping the Irish border open for goods in transit.


for which there is no precedent, as every single one of them was about restricting trade with one specific country, and even those will likely find itself in front of a WTO resolution panel, as several WTO members are pressing for it. So, you are looking at ~10 years uncertainty and potential retaliation along the way....

Of course applying Art XXI is a funny proposition, as under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties treties have to be applied in good faith. Now claiming harm can only be undone by invoking Art XXI after unnecessary, in the sense of unforced, having created the "problem" yourself isn´t exactly "good faith".....

best regards
Thomas



Everything has to have a first and there dosnt have to actully be a precedent, International law recognise that nation have a right to override their obligations to defend national security interests.


While that is generally true, that does not appear to be limitless as clearly obvious by several countries calling for WTO resolution panels to see if for example the US tariffs fall under that rule..

So, even if your (absolute minority) opinion holds water in the end, it is still 10+ years of uncertainty where both the EU and the UK can be hit with retaliatory tariffs..... will the UK reimburse the EU for those, as they are the singular reason the problem exists?

By arguing the case that invoking XXI Security Exceptions will go against our obligations under the WTO and the UN Charter to maintain international peace and security, if you don’t think the UK is acting in good faith to suspend our obligations to ensure the the peace and security of NI then you don’t believe the there is scope for a return of the Troubles, and if that’s the case why then does the EU insists on a backstop for NI if you don’t think thecUK has a legitimate claim to XXI Security Exceptions?


Again: The UK created that situation all by itself, with no outside force or pressure, and now wants to use an Exception (!) to circumvent the outcome of its own sovereign actions. "Good faith" anything would have prevented the problem from arising in the first place. Good faith would have excluded even considering any action that leads to any need to invoke Art. XXI. There will be some 160 WTO members that will scream bloody murder over it, because what is keeping them from creating a situation in which Art. XXI offers a convenient way out at the expense of *everybody* else themselves..... right, nothing.

In other words: You think that it is "good faith" for the UK to expect for 160 WTO Members to essentially give up their most favored nation status with the European Union, so the UK can keep its most favored nation status and/or avoid a customs border in the Irish sea?

If that flies, we can just dissolve the WTO. Heck, we can just go and dump any treaty, convention or law.

Its abuse of rights to invoke a right, like those layed out in Art. XXI, "to the injury of another State". Those 160 other WTO members have nothing to do with the problems the UK created all by itself, yet if implemented it is to their injury.

See "Good Faith in the Jurisprudence of the WTO: The Protection of Legitimate Expectations, Good Faith Interpretation and Fair Dispute Settlement" by Marion Panizzon, Page 33-34.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:39 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
By arguing the case that invoking XXI Security Exceptions will go against our obligations under the WTO and the UN Charter to maintain international peace and security, if you don’t think the UK is acting in good faith to suspend our obligations to ensure the the peace and security of NI then you don’t believe the there is scope for a return of the Troubles, and if that’s the case why then does the EU insists on a backstop for NI if you don’t think thecUK has a legitimate claim to XXI Security Exceptions?


A much simpler solutution than testing the validity of all this legal science fiction, would be to simply accept the original form of the backstop, just like TM did.


Which would also easily pass the tests of being reasonable and proportionate to the threat to national security and executed in good faith, while "Hey all other WTO members, we created a mess here and to solve it the EU will have to treat ya`ll as 2nd rate third parties, even if the EU already has an FTA with you" will probably not.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:46 am

olle wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
So on the one hand, the EU tells the UK that the WA is not up for re-negotiation and the only reason they grant the UK an extension to October 31st is to get the WA ratified in parliament.

Yet on the other hand, I read in the Guardian article:

"It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan."


and

“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative,” a diplomat concluded of the discussion.


So first you tell the UK not to bother coming up with an alternative plan as the WA and backstop are not negotiable, and then you blame the UK for not coming up with an alternative plan?

My guess is that EU is starting to get scared of being blamed for a hard Brexit by the general public. So now they suggest that the backstop would have been negotiable, if only the UK had come up with a plan.

(Not excusing Boris Johnson here. Boris Johnson should have had a plan ready to go. The fact that he does not have one confirms that the UK has the wrong leader at the moment)


I consider that EU27 populations by now do not blame the EU institutions for the mess. England might be another story, but by now EU27 populations has given up and want it over with.


:checkmark:
If public opinion on the continent had any sway in this, the EU wouldn´t even waste money for tickets or phonecalls to the UK anymore, and if that was possible, the extension would have been revoked.

The public is so done with Brexit that only big developments make it into the news at all. Just now on spiegel.de: the word "Brexit" is nowhere to be seen anywhere on the page ......

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:23 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
If public opinion on the continent had any sway in this, the EU wouldn´t even waste money for tickets or phonecalls to the UK anymore, and if that was possible, the extension would have been revoked.

The public is so done with Brexit that only big developments make it into the news at all. Just now on spiegel.de: the word "Brexit" is nowhere to be seen anywhere on the page ......

best regards
Thomas


Indeed, its more proof of the UKs delusional belief it is a top priority: it's not.
Brexit and the aftermath of it is a hugely time absorbing issue for the rest of this decade... in the UK...
In the EU it's now just an external event and the consequences of it need to be mitigated as much as possible, with as little effort as possible, and that can best be done, together.
Each time a EU politician makes a sobering comment on Brexit, it is solely aimed at the UK audience; the domestic audience isn't interested any longer and couldn't care less .

Would be helpful for Brexiteers wondering how it comes their sovereign and mighty Great Britain isn't able to make a even the smallest of dents in the EU political armament is to start reading foreign news outlets giving a realistic impression about the mood and the thinking in the EU, rather than British ones telling you what that mood and thinking is: I'm always bemusing to read the Telegraph or the Sun telling us EU leaders are shaken and rattled by some new blunt comment or cunning plan from a British Tory politician: they have been telling us that for the past 3 years now… weird how it never materialises into something, doesn't it? Does it never cross their reader's minds they might not be getting such a correct representation of the EU's reaction, after all then? At some point you have to put your sources of information into question, don't you?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:49 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
In the EU it's now just an external event and the consequences of it need to be mitigated as much as possible, with as little effort as possible, and that can best be done, together.


And of course without any chance that any other country feels to invoke Art. XXI because they consider upholding the concept of "most favored nation" and preventing arbitrary invocation or Art. XXI is in its best national security interest...

At some point you have to put your sources of information into question, don't you?


seems to depend on how strong your confirmation bias is i guess...

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:00 pm

International peace and security does not mean preventing a civil war. NI is part of the UK and so anything that happens there is an internal problem of the UK. Seriously you can not take back control and then demand that the EU solves a British problem.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:26 pm

seahawk wrote:
Seriously, you can not take back control and then demand that the EU solves a British problem.


It's yet another irony that's clearly lost on Brexiteers! Brexit so far has been full of it:
- supremacy of British law, only to call the UKs top court 'enemies of the people' for upholding the law...
- taking back control, only to hand it to a string of unelected PMs (second in a row now)...
- sovereignty of Parliament, which subsequently needs to be thwarted and prevented from having its will...
- absolute respect of the will of people but interpret that will at random and to the best of one's own personal interests of course...
- and indeed the way in which some parts of the country are now thrown under the (red campaign) bus....
There's indeed a lot of irony in each of these events, but clearly it's all fine as long as Brexit gets carried 'over the line'.

Will be a rude awakening when on Nov 1st the very same problems are still going to be there and everything will start all over again from square one, just with less leverage and from a significantly weakened negotiating position.
I'd solve my problems when I'm at my strongest, not when I'm weak, but it seems BoJo only wants to give in when he's flat down, so down the UK goes then.
So be it: it will be amuzing to comment on the negotiations for a silver-lined FTA that Britain thinks is awaiting them! :D
Prepare to read nonsense about all the benefits of a US FTA as the sole alternative to a guaranteed to fail negotiation with the EU and about all the required changes to British society that needs to be undertaken first in order to become fit for it. Bye Bye NHS and other safety nets!
It should have been clear from the start that all those British fatcats willing to spend millions of their own money on a campaign to take back control while they happily live abroad to hide from the British taxman, did not do so out of a naive love for flag or country, but were seeking radical social changes in their own interests of course: they did not fund this power grap if they didn't have a clear vision of what those who' be handed hand the power to would have to to do with that new powers.
The horror show is about to start for ordinary Brits, not entirely unsymbolically on Halloween. :tombstone:
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:59 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Prepare to read nonsense about all the benefits of a US FTA as the sole alternative to a guaranteed to fail negotiation with the EU :


Well, no matter what the outcome of the US FTA negotiations is, it won´t get ratified unless the NI/RoI border problem is solved. Has been made quite clear when BoJo was over there...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... cians-warn

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:10 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Prepare to read nonsense about all the benefits of a US FTA as the sole alternative to a guaranteed to fail negotiation with the EU :


Well, no matter what the outcome of the US FTA negotiations is, it won´t get ratified unless the NI/RoI border problem is solved. Has been made quite clear when BoJo was over there...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... cians-warn

best regards
Thomas


Indeed, after Brexit, the very same issues will pop up again!
This has been said numerous times already by as good as everybody involved, but it is still denied by brexiteers who seem to believe that on November 1st (or whatever day the UK leaves the EU) a whole new reality awaits them!

So in order to make it perfectly clear once more today, Ireland's PM's, Leo Varadkar had to remind Brexiteers a no-deal departure would not end the Brexit process.
Here are a few extracts from his speech at Hillsborough Castle in Northern Ireland today, reitterating once again the well known unified EU position:

“There are people (...) saying to themselves ‘if we leave with no deal on 31 October it’s all over and it’s all done’”.

“It doesn’t end on 31 October! If we have no deal we are still going to have to talk, and the first things on the agenda are going to be citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and the solution to the Irish border, before we even start to talk about a free-trade agreement.”

“Brexit (…) is a permanent change in relations between the European Union, including Ireland, and the United Kingdom. I think that needs to be borne in mind.”


Pretty much exactly what Tommy1808, I and many others have repeatedly said…

Meanwhile, the frustration about this is apparently too high to keep it behind closed doors in Downing Street, despite the explicit and personalised marching orders of D.Cummings to all cabinet ministers: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... e-new-deal
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:58 pm

Just a question, why did they choose October 31st? It's a Thursday, which means that the first day out is on a weekday. Wouldn't it be terre to havr such a date on a weekend? If so, why not just move it to October 25th/26th or November 1st/2nd? Makes planning for companies much easier and the first coincides with going to wintertime.Then again, logic and practical thinking is not something we see in the whole Brexit story.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:20 pm

It's because the next EU comission will start assuming office Nov 1st, idea was to let them make a start fresh on negotiation being after a orderly exit or no deal...
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:34 pm

tommy1808 wrote:

So, even if your (absolute minority) opinion holds water in the end, it is still 10+ years of uncertainty where both the EU and the UK can be hit with retaliatory tariffs..... will the UK reimburse the EU for those, as they are the singular reason the problem exists?



Nope 2.5 years from when Ukraine first brought it up with consultations with Russia until the panels final report, and you actully can do the retaliatory part if one party invokes XXI


tommy1808 wrote:

Again: The UK created that situation all by itself, with no outside force or pressure, and now wants to use an Exception (!) to circumvent the outcome of its own sovereign actions. "Good faith" anything would have prevented the problem from arising in the first place. Good faith would have excluded even considering any action that leads to any need to invoke Art. XXI. There will be some 160 WTO members that will scream bloody murder over it, because what is keeping them from creating a situation in which Art. XXI offers a convenient way out at the expense of *everybody* else themselves..... right, nothing.



No as the UK has done everything in good faith with all aspects in accordance with international agreements.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:38 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
It's because the next EU comission will start assuming office Nov 1st, idea was to let them make a start fresh on negotiation being after a orderly exit or no deal...


No, as a member the UK would have a right to be represented in new EU commission, so to secure the stability of the commission the UK needs to be out before 1st November.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:58 pm

LJ wrote:
Just a question, why did they choose October 31st? It's a Thursday, which means that the first day out is on a weekday. Wouldn't it be terre to havr such a date on a weekend? If so, why not just move it to October 25th/26th or November 1st/2nd? Makes planning for companies much easier and the first coincides with going to wintertime.Then again, logic and practical thinking is not something we see in the whole Brexit story.




I think many people in uk expects another extension by default. It will not be easy this time.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:06 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
By arguing the case that invoking XXI Security Exceptions will go against our obligations under the WTO and the UN Charter to maintain international peace and security, if you don’t think the UK is acting in good faith to suspend our obligations to ensure the the peace and security of NI then you don’t believe the there is scope for a return of the Troubles, and if that’s the case why then does the EU insists on a backstop for NI if you don’t think thecUK has a legitimate claim to XXI Security Exceptions?


A much simpler solutution than testing the validity of all this legal science fiction, would be to simply accept the original form of the backstop, just like TM did.


Which would also easily pass the tests of being reasonable and proportionate to the threat to national security and executed in good faith, while "Hey all other WTO members, we created a mess here and to solve it the EU will have to treat ya`ll as 2nd rate third parties, even if the EU already has an FTA with you" will probably not.

best regards
Thomas


Remember it was the EU which had disregarded the DUP about that very thing from the joint progress report to the draft withdrawl agreement and ignored paragraph 50

“The DUP had forced insertion of an additional paragraph at the last minute, this new paragraph 50 of the December 2017 Joint Progress Report stated that ‘In the absence of agreed solutions ... the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless the NI Executive and Assembly agree ...’.”
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:14 pm

seahawk wrote:
International peace and security does not mean preventing a civil war. NI is part of the UK and so anything that happens there is an internal problem of the UK. Seriously you can not take back control and then demand that the EU solves a British problem.



If it were 100% internally in NI then why did the UK have to intercept paramilitary groups from the ROI?
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:20 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
The WA is the only outcome possible following the UK's very own red lines as they were put forward by TM in her Lancaster House speech.


Not true. The famous staircase diagram that Barnier presented in response to UK's red lines clearly shows a Canada/Korea-style free trade agreement as the logical outcome of Brexit. So that should have been the backstop.


You're clearly much confused!

The staircase shows all the different forms of cooperation available to the UK, but only AFTER an orderly Brexit.


Right, I forgot. The famous "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

Oh wait....
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:23 pm

A101 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
International peace and security does not mean preventing a civil war. NI is part of the UK and so anything that happens there is an internal problem of the UK. Seriously you can not take back control and then demand that the EU solves a British problem.


If it were 100% internally in NI then why did the UK have to intercept paramilitary groups from the ROI?


So it is purely internal when the UK decides to leave the EU; but international when the RoI and the EU are supposed to make Brexit happen? By that logic you could suggest that the RoI should simply leave the EU together with the UK and all problems would be gone.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:27 pm

seahawk wrote:
By that logic you could suggest that the RoI should simply leave the EU together with the UK and all problems would be gone.


You have basically divulged the entire pre-referendum strategy for the border problem in NI! ;)

British politicians has always taken the RoI's complience for granted, expecting 'Paddy' to just fall in line with whatever London sets as the norm on the British Isles.
And Brexiteers genuinely believed that Brexit would be the beginning of the end of the EU anyway, so no problem whatsoever with NI.
Not worth a second of their thoughts even: far better to dream of the sunlit uplands that were immediately awaiting them, right?
Well, things didn't exactly turn out the way they were supposed to, did they?

Not only is Brexit a very rude awakening for many British politicians as to just how deminished Britain's clout only is in the 21st century, it's also putting an end to the irrational illusion that the RoI is very much under their influence still as if it were some sort of a vasal state!

Britain imagines all sorts of special relationships with half the western world, but facts constantly show us just how ordinary these relationships have become:
Commonwealth member Canada doesn't want a TCA with the UK as it expects to squeeze out more concessions from the UK alone than it obtained through CETA;
Malta and Cyprus openly snub the UK at EU Councils;
The RoI refuses to bend to British demands regarding NI and enjoys full and unconditional backing from the rest of the EU;
Trump's USA is eagerly waiting for the UK to go flat on her back in return for some humiliating trade deal which may very well get blocked by Congress afterwards.
Wonder what the next entertaining idea from Brexiteers will be? A fabulous deal with India? Not unless the UK agrees to go very soft on immigration…
Oh, I forgot: Australia and New Zealand! Yes, let's pretend we're still in the 1960s and promise to import sheep from the Kiwi's and try to sell our manufactured stuff to the Australians in return...

The sobering reality after 3 years of sailing the world is that nobody is waiting for Brexit Britain, unless to take full benefit of its unique weakness.
Even Dr. Fox understood it in the and, and got sacked by BoJo for timidly daring to say in public not every trade benefit promissed by Brexit was actually deliverable.
 
kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:12 pm

You've pretty much got it in one there, Sabenapilot. Britain's stock in the world is plummeting. How can any country have respect for a country which is determined - in the face of EVERY SINGLE respectable economic forecast - to put its people through a completely avoidable hell.

We're in a global village now; you can't just uproot a tree that's been growing in an arboretum for 45 years and expect that it's roots won't have become entangled with those of other trees.

And what happens with Scotland? What if Nicola Sturgeon announces a new referendum on independence on the 1st November, to be followed with the opening of talks with the EU to join as an independent country. Will BoJo simply say "no" or introduce emergency legislation to prevent this? That's for those who think that the Irish border issue is the biggest headache the government will face ...

Boris can only thank his stars for Jeremy Corbyn, because he is the Tories' biggest asset right now. Were there someone - Benn, Starmer etc - in the sane wing of the party, Boris would be facing an entirely different situation. Corbyn's tepidness in the face of the current disaster will go down in history as a massive betrayal of the working population he claims to represent.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:10 pm

seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
International peace and security does not mean preventing a civil war. NI is part of the UK and so anything that happens there is an internal problem of the UK. Seriously you can not take back control and then demand that the EU solves a British problem.


If it were 100% internally in NI then why did the UK have to intercept paramilitary groups from the ROI?


So it is purely internal when the UK decides to leave the EU; but international when the RoI and the EU are supposed to make Brexit happen? By that logic you could suggest that the RoI should simply leave the EU together with the UK and all problems would be gone.



Nope the GFA has always been an international agreement as is the TEU. If the troubles was solely an internal civil problem of the UK then there would have been no need for an agreement between ROI/UK.

We have enacted the provisions within the TEU to leagally leave the EU, the GFA makes no stipulations that the UK must remain in the EU. An agreement could not be reached under A50 section 1 which means that the UK leaves without a withdrawl agreement. The UK will still be honouring the terms within GFA if government enacts XXI Security Exceptions for the Irish border or makes an agreement with the EU that pass a sovereign UK parliament.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:55 am

A101 wrote:
No as the UK has done everything in good faith with all aspects in accordance with international agreements.


if they had done so no security exception would have to be invoked at all now would it? That is the most self defeating argument you made so far i think.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:02 am

AeroVega wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

Not true. The famous staircase diagram that Barnier presented in response to UK's red lines clearly shows a Canada/Korea-style free trade agreement as the logical outcome of Brexit. So that should have been the backstop.


You're clearly much confused!

The staircase shows all the different forms of cooperation available to the UK, but only AFTER an orderly Brexit.


Right, I forgot. The famous "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

Oh wait....


More like "We need to know the basis for our future trade before we can negotiate the terms of that trade".

And of course you misunderstood. No one said that those deal could not be negotiated during the 2-year phase, the only two problems where:

a) The UK can´t and couldn´t make its mind up which one they want.
b) After knowing what all possible options where that the EU could in principle offer, they drew up some red lines precluding all available options.

The EU was willing and prepared to hammer out a deal in short order, the UK delegation didn´t even bring a position paper, a goal or in fact any documents to the first negotiating rounds...

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:17 am

A101 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:

If it were 100% internally in NI then why did the UK have to intercept paramilitary groups from the ROI?


So it is purely internal when the UK decides to leave the EU; but international when the RoI and the EU are supposed to make Brexit happen? By that logic you could suggest that the RoI should simply leave the EU together with the UK and all problems would be gone.



Nope the GFA has always been an international agreement as is the TEU. If the troubles was solely an internal civil problem of the UK then there would have been no need for an agreement between ROI/UK.

We have enacted the provisions within the TEU to leagally leave the EU, the GFA makes no stipulations that the UK must remain in the EU. An agreement could not be reached under A50 section 1 which means that the UK leaves without a withdrawl agreement. The UK will still be honouring the terms within GFA if government enacts XXI Security Exceptions for the Irish border or makes an agreement with the EU that pass a sovereign UK parliament.


The UK is free to do as they like and so is the RoI. The RoI and the EU have formulated their demands, the UK does not like them, so a hard border will come.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:26 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
No as the UK has done everything in good faith with all aspects in accordance with international agreements.


if they had done so no security exception would have to be invoked at all now would it? That is the most self defeating argument you made so far i think.

best regards
Thomas



That comes down to due process within the TEU and A50 just because the WA was not passed by parliament under A50 Sec1 does not mean the UK has not acted in good faith, it just means the process works and not just a rubber stamp for government
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:29 am

seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

So it is purely internal when the UK decides to leave the EU; but international when the RoI and the EU are supposed to make Brexit happen? By that logic you could suggest that the RoI should simply leave the EU together with the UK and all problems would be gone.



Nope the GFA has always been an international agreement as is the TEU. If the troubles was solely an internal civil problem of the UK then there would have been no need for an agreement between ROI/UK.

We have enacted the provisions within the TEU to leagally leave the EU, the GFA makes no stipulations that the UK must remain in the EU. An agreement could not be reached under A50 section 1 which means that the UK leaves without a withdrawl agreement. The UK will still be honouring the terms within GFA if government enacts XXI Security Exceptions for the Irish border or makes an agreement with the EU that pass a sovereign UK parliament.


The UK is free to do as they like and so is the RoI. The RoI and the EU have formulated their demands, the UK does not like them, so a hard border will come.



Yep on the ROI side at the border if Brussels gets it’s way
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:34 am

tommy1808 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

You're clearly much confused!

The staircase shows all the different forms of cooperation available to the UK, but only AFTER an orderly Brexit.


Right, I forgot. The famous "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

Oh wait....


More like "We need to know the basis for our future trade before we can negotiate the terms of that trade".

And of course you misunderstood. No one said that those deal could not be negotiated during the 2-year phase, the only two problems where:

a) The UK can´t and couldn´t make its mind up which one they want.
b) After knowing what all possible options where that the EU could in principle offer, they drew up some red lines precluding all available options.

The EU was willing and prepared to hammer out a deal in short order, the UK delegation didn´t even bring a position paper, a goal or in fact any documents to the first negotiating rounds...

best regards
Thomas


Theresa May knew what she wanted, she just could not have it which is understandable. Theresa May used up too much working capital that in the end she could not see the forest for the trees.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:40 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
No as the UK has done everything in good faith with all aspects in accordance with international agreements.


if they had done so no security exception would have to be invoked at all now would it? That is the most self defeating argument you made so far i think.

best regards
Thomas



That comes down to due process within the TEU and A50 just because the WA was not passed by parliament under A50 Sec1 does not mean the UK has not acted in good faith, it just means the process works and not just a rubber stamp for government


yup, the UK parliament screwed that up totally without any regard for maintaining other treaties they are party of, unforced and without any outside pressure, i.e. with no excuse to make it into a "good faith" effort.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:52 am

A101 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:


Nope the GFA has always been an international agreement as is the TEU. If the troubles was solely an internal civil problem of the UK then there would have been no need for an agreement between ROI/UK.

We have enacted the provisions within the TEU to leagally leave the EU, the GFA makes no stipulations that the UK must remain in the EU. An agreement could not be reached under A50 section 1 which means that the UK leaves without a withdrawl agreement. The UK will still be honouring the terms within GFA if government enacts XXI Security Exceptions for the Irish border or makes an agreement with the EU that pass a sovereign UK parliament.


The UK is free to do as they like and so is the RoI. The RoI and the EU have formulated their demands, the UK does not like them, so a hard border will come.



Yep on the ROI side at the border if Brussels gets it’s way


Certainly. But in the end it a pointless play anyway. The GFA talks about an open border, the WTC rules do not care about people crossing the border nor does it extend to services operating cross border. So even if you would agree on the WTC argument, it would only apply to goods.

But the UK can always refrain from controlling the border. I am sure the human trafficking industry will be delighted. Suddenly you only need to apply for a transit VISA in the Schengen area and Ireland, cross the border into NI and you are in the UK. And nobody will stop this.
Last edited by seahawk on Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:55 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

if they had done so no security exception would have to be invoked at all now would it? That is the most self defeating argument you made so far i think.

best regards
Thomas



That comes down to due process within the TEU and A50 just because the WA was not passed by parliament under A50 Sec1 does not mean the UK has not acted in good faith, it just means the process works and not just a rubber stamp for government


yup, the UK parliament screwed that up totally without any regard for maintaining other treaties they are party of, unforced and without any outside pressure, i.e. with no excuse to make it into a "good faith" effort.

best regards
Thomas



Far from it, they recognised a bad deal for the UK overall,and no we haven’t screwed as you say other treaties, we are still honouring the GFA.

If you want the WA signed either take out the backstop in its current form or put a time limit on the WA and sort the future relationship
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:36 am

A101 wrote:
If you want the WA signed either take out the backstop in its current form or put a time limit on the WA and sort the future relationship


We've been going through this ad nauseam, A101.

There IS an implicit end to the backstop contained in the WA: it's the FTA that is supposed to replace it.
The sooner the UK signs up to the terms of the FTA the EU offers them, the shorter the backstop will be needed, if ever.
But unless this FTA is concluded, the backstop can't be formally time-limited nor taken out of the WA.

If it's indeed just a matter of sequencing because both parties are currently unsure about the good faith, real intensions and honnesty of the other like has been suggested numerous times, then the Obvious solution has been known for a long time and formally proposed by the EU even: the phased Brexit::
1- UK first does a BRINO only, so no formal need for a backstop in the WA any longer and the UK can start to negotiate a FTA with the EU once formally out
2a- if a FTA is reached and indeed it shows there's no need for a backstop like claimed the problem is solved and the UK can drift as far away as it pleases from the EU with a FTA in place!
2b- if a FTA is reached and it still requires some elements from the backstop, then these few elements can be added as part of that FTA to allow the UK to drift as far away from the EU as it wants
2c- if no FTA is reached, the UK can drift further away from the EU but then a second WA (this time from the CU and the SM) must first be concluded, which will then have to include a backstop.

In short:
if the UK wants to split off the backstop from the WA and have it settle only the citiizen rights and the financial arrangement in order to secure a much valued transition period all while dealing with the backstop issues later on during the FTA negotiations, then it's only logical for Brexit to be split up in 2 phases as well! In a first phase a soft Brexit only to match the content of the light version of the WA and then when things go said, a full brexit later, nicely embedded in that fabulous FTA solving all the problems for NI...
if it proves to be yet another dilusional concept of Brexiteers and their idea of a FTA solving the backstop issues is impossible after all, then the UK will have to decide freely whether it stays in the temporary state of BRINO only, or goes for a hard Brexit anyway by signing up to the rest of the WA (ie. the backstop), possibly by a second referendum even.

The proposal to phase Brexit has been made by the EU, but the idea has been turned down by the UK Government…
they really need to make up their mind and get around the idea they can not have a 'no deal' departure (so no backstop) and still expect to negotiate a FTA later: it's not going to happen, that much should be clear now, shouldn't it? The EU has jsut formally set it as a pre-condition to the opening of negotiations of a FTA, even after Brexit.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:40 am

I think it is a very wrong idea to believe that the EU still wants the WA signed. And considering that the UK does not even wishes to negotiate,it will not be signed. Everyone is preparing for the Hard Brexit and it seems the EU27 are fine with it.

It is simply party politics in the UK. A hard Brexit kills the Brexit party, which means the conservatives could win an election in November as Brexit won´t be a topic, Labour would still be paralysed and the Greens and Liberal Democrats would also have lost their strongest argument. It avoids a split vote on the Brexit side and robs the remainers of their argument.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:44 am

Before A50 everyone expected UK to be in the position to divide and rule the negotiations partly because this has been the uk view of thevdivided and inefficient EU.

What UK and EU27 countries learned was, yes we argue, we have a complicated way to agree but the agreements we makes are handling complicated problems that we cannot solve one by one like the single market, climate change, migration etc.

Thanks to UK Eau was saved. EU27 today is not talking about any exits. Salvani in Italy rather is angry because he do not help fast enough. He can wait until hell freeze over until Farage come to his help. So he need to turn to "more Europe" partners who see the need to help each Other.

So now UK is divided. All arguments covered shows on the surface and threaten to break UK in pieces.

England nationalists throws London, scotland, NI and even themself under the bus by going from a brexit "norway" style to "pol pot" style no compromizes.

Mid England is about to loose its industries and middle / working class jobs and Farage is partying with mr Trump. He laugh all the way to his by now Roi bank office.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 10644
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:47 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:


That comes down to due process within the TEU and A50 just because the WA was not passed by parliament under A50 Sec1 does not mean the UK has not acted in good faith, it just means the process works and not just a rubber stamp for government


yup, the UK parliament screwed that up totally without any regard for maintaining other treaties they are party of, unforced and without any outside pressure, i.e. with no excuse to make it into a "good faith" effort.

best regards
Thomas



Far from it, they recognised a bad deal for the UK overall,and no we haven’t screwed as you say other treaties, we are still honouring the GFA.

If you want the WA signed either take out the backstop in its current form or put a time limit on the WA and sort the future relationship


There would be no need to remove the backstop from the WA if the UK government didn't plan to/wanted to keep the option to violate the GFA whenever it suits them at a later date. Because enabling doing so is the only thing that would accomplished, the result of any good faith negotiations would keep the GFA intact and hence eliminate the backstop.

Best regards
Thomas
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