sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:50 am

seahawk wrote:
I think it is a very wrong idea to believe that the EU still wants to WA signed. And considering that the UK does not even wishes to negotiate,it will not be signed. Everyone is preparing for the Hard Brexit and it seems the EU27 are fine with it.


Indeed, theres a notorious position paper from the EU from some time ago which predicted that in case the UK crashing out with no deal, it will undertake steps to ask to come to a comprehensive FTA first, and relatively soon after Brexit even, forced by the economic pain felt as time goes by.
Which is why you are increasingly hearing the EU say accepting ALL elements of the WA (so including the backstop) are a pre-condition to starting those negotiations: they have already calculated the outcome of a no deal Brexit, done a risk-and-strength analysis and come to the conclusion they can set the price!
I wouldnt be surprised to see they even try to drag their feed when the request comes, simply to maximize pain first and thus squeeze even more out of the UK!
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:00 am

tommy1808 wrote:
No one said that those deal could not be negotiated during the 2-year phase, the only two problems where:

a) The UK can´t and couldn´t make its mind up which one they want.
b) After knowing what all possible options where that the EU could in principle offer, they drew up some red lines precluding all available options.

The EU was willing and prepared to hammer out a deal in short order, the UK delegation didn´t even bring a position paper, a goal or in fact any documents to the first negotiating rounds...


Let's not rewrite history, shall we. It is the EU that refuses to discuss the future trading relationship with the UK. Instead the EU insists on an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU first, and by that the EU means a withdrawal in which the UK keeps on following EU rules and regulations indefinitely (practically not a withdrawal from the EU at all).

Yes, Theresa May was a terrible negotiator. To me it looked like she was mostly concerned with her own legacy of being the prime-minister that took the UK out of the EU, even to do point of willing to accept BRINO. And now with Boris Johnson the UK seems to have a prime-minster who has no clue at all. But I object to the EU considering a hard Brexit inevitable. The EU needs to try to find common ground with the UK to prevent a hard Brexit. And the general EU public may be indifferent to Brexit at the moment, but that will change soon enough when the EU's economy starts to tank after the UK crashes out of the EU on October 31st.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:06 am

AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
No one said that those deal could not be negotiated during the 2-year phase, the only two problems where:

a) The UK can´t and couldn´t make its mind up which one they want.
b) After knowing what all possible options where that the EU could in principle offer, they drew up some red lines precluding all available options.

The EU was willing and prepared to hammer out a deal in short order, the UK delegation didn´t even bring a position paper, a goal or in fact any documents to the first negotiating rounds...


Let's not rewrite history, shall we. It is the EU that refuses to discuss the future trading relationship with the UK. Instead the EU insists on an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU first, and by that the EU means a withdrawal in which the UK keeps on following EU rules and regulations indefinitely (practically not a withdrawal from the EU at all).

Yes, Theresa May was a terrible negotiator. To me it looked like she was mostly concerned with her own legacy of being the prime-minister that took the UK out of the EU, even to do point of willing to accept BRINO. And now with Boris Johnson the UK seems to have a prime-minster who has no clue at all. But I object to the EU considering a hard Brexit inevitable. The EU needs to try to find common ground with the UK to prevent a hard Brexit. And the general EU public may be indifferent to Brexit at the moment, but that will change soon enough when the EU's economy starts to tank after the UK crashes out of the EU on October 31st.


Let's not rewrite history, shall we. The EU did at no point refuse to negotiate a future trade deal after the Art. 50 notification, the EU only refused to negotiate before the basis for the future relationship is clear. It's the UK that still can't agree internally what the basis for such deal shall be and have until today not even made a proposal.

The EU on the other hand has made the available options clear even before the referendum, and was even generous enough to freely chose from the menue.

Also cute that you still hold on to the "they need us more than we need them" monica despite that flying in the face of everything that happened.
Even with Germany, and its huge trade deficit with the UK, the UK lost more trade absolute than germany already...

Best regards
Thomas
Last edited by tommy1808 on Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:07 am

The EU does not have to find a common ground. Taking back control and triggering Article 50 means that the leaving country becomes a third nation, unless this country wants a different status and makes an proposal acceptable to the EU27. And if you think economic pressure will force the EU to seek a deal, the UK can simply seat back, relax and then dictate the new relationship with the EU, as the EU will be desperate for a deal.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:43 am

tommy1808 wrote:
The EU did at no point refuse to negotiate a future trade deal after the Art. 50 notification, the EU only refused to negotiate before the basis for the future relationship is clear.


That's a distinction without a difference. Fact of the matter is that the only deal the EU is offering the UK is to not leave the EU at all.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:03 am

AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
The EU did at no point refuse to negotiate a future trade deal after the Art. 50 notification, the EU only refused to negotiate before the basis for the future relationship is clear.


That's a distinction without a difference. Fact of the matter is that the only deal the EU is offering the UK is to not leave the EU at all.


That is fake news. The European Union offers each and every deal that is in line with a) WTO rules and b) preserves the GFA, as that is in the interest of the Republic of Ireland, which happens to be an EU member in the future too.

The rules and treaty limitation of an Exit from the EU have been clear for about a decade before even the referendum took place, and the UK government was a, if not the, major force behind the single market rules they now crash into. They made their own bed, time to lay in it.

best regards
Thomas
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:11 am

AeroVega wrote:
So on the one hand, the EU tells the UK that the WA is not up for re-negotiation and the only reason they grant the UK an extension to October 31st is to get the WA ratified in parliament.

Yet on the other hand, I read in the Guardian article:

"It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan."


and

“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative,” a diplomat concluded of the discussion.


So first you tell the UK not to bother coming up with an alternative plan as the WA and backstop are not negotiable, and then you blame the UK for not coming up with an alternative plan?

My guess is that EU is starting to get scared of being blamed for a hard Brexit by the general public. So now they suggest that the backstop would have been negotiable, if only the UK had come up with a plan.

(Not excusing Boris Johnson here. Boris Johnson should have had a plan ready to go. The fact that he does not have one confirms that the UK has the wrong leader at the moment)


The backstop is a safety net in case "alternative arrangements" are not found. There are no alternative arrangements in sight, so the backstop stays. The diplomat is just saying that in another way.

The WA is not negotiable is an affirmation that can always change if circumstances change. In fact some people in Europe think the new PM means circumstances have changed, but not the right people. If the UK government had a serious proposal, let's call it Norway+ because it's the only thing that could really work, I'm sure negotiations could start again. But it's not what happened is it ? BoJo couldn't even be bothered to set foot on the continent to meet his peers !

It's obvious to everyone that they started the blame game, they're not even subtle about it. It might fool low information voters, but nobody with any brains will be fooled.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:28 am

seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
It's because the next EU comission will start assuming office Nov 1st, idea was to let them make a start fresh on negotiation being after a orderly exit or no deal...


No, as a member the UK would have a right to be represented in new EU commission, so to secure the stability of the commission the UK needs to be out before 1st November.


As I understand it it is more then have the right to be represented, EU is required to have a representing commissioner from each member state.

Right now there is also a number of elected MEPs from EU27 waiting to replace Uk MEPs. they are hanging in the air.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:50 am

olle wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
It's because the next EU comission will start assuming office Nov 1st, idea was to let them make a start fresh on negotiation being after a orderly exit or no deal...


No, as a member the UK would have a right to be represented in new EU commission, so to secure the stability of the commission the UK needs to be out before 1st November.


As I understand it it is more then have the right to be represented, EU is required to have a representing commissioner from each member state.

Right now there is also a number of elected MEPs from EU27 waiting to replace Uk MEPs. they are hanging in the air.


True, it is better to have the UK out of the EU, they are now just hanging there like dead weight.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:08 am

With the new registration directives that all people entering EU by air, road or rail shall be registered a non barrier NI border seems more and more complicated;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... road-users
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am

olle wrote:
With the new registration directives that all people entering EU by air, road or rail shall be registered a non barrier NI border seems more and more complicated;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... road-users


The UK and Ireland are excluded from ETIAS.

However, 19 UK MEPs voted for it...... (both didn´t vote in the Council)

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:07 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
olle wrote:
With the new registration directives that all people entering EU by air, road or rail shall be registered a non barrier NI border seems more and more complicated;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... road-users


The UK and Ireland are excluded from ETIAS.

However, 19 UK MEPs voted for it...... (both didn´t vote in the Council)

best regards
Thomas


Does that mean that ROI citizen need to register in EITAS before entering Schengen?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:33 pm

olle wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
olle wrote:
With the new registration directives that all people entering EU by air, road or rail shall be registered a non barrier NI border seems more and more complicated;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... road-users


The UK and Ireland are excluded from ETIAS.

However, 19 UK MEPs voted for it...... (both didn´t vote in the Council)

best regards
Thomas


Does that mean that ROI citizen need to register in EITAS before entering Schengen?


Nope, Ireland is not subject to application.

best regards
Thomas
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olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:42 pm

What happens to UK financial sector? As I understand it they right now has right to do busiuness until 29 of March 2020. Does that include passporting rights? or is the passporting rights over at haloween?

What does it mean for the biggest export sector a no deal?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:46 pm

olle wrote:
What happens to UK financial sector? As I understand it they right now has right to do busiuness until 29 of March 2020. Does that include passporting rights? or is the passporting rights over at haloween?

What does it mean for the biggest export sector a no deal?


Why do they have the right to do business longer than 31st of October? Do you have a link to that?

The banking sector has the right to do business as it is done now, without the EU oversight? Hard to believe, especially for the bankingsector whom is proven that they need oversight.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:03 pm

olle wrote:
What happens to UK financial sector? As I understand it they right now has right to do busiuness until 29 of March 2020. Does that include passporting rights? or is the passporting rights over at haloween?

What does it mean for the biggest export sector a no deal?


There is indeed a transition period till the end of March 2020 for the clearing business. I don't know how this is for other lines of business which requires an EU passport. Note that only part of the financial business is affected. It's not that London will not be the financial capital after March 2020.

Dutchy wrote:
Why do they have the right to do business longer than 31st of October? Do you have a link to that?


It's in one of the EU papers. Cutting EU financial institutions off from the clearing houses based in London would do a lot of damage for the EU. Moreover, it takes time to move some of the business away from London.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:18 pm

https://www.ft.com/content/3a35dfd6-b2c ... 9a3a8cf37b




While companies have been left with most of the burden of preparing for no deal, Brussels has taken important contingency steps.

These include temporary access to clearing houses operating in the UK that will end in March 2020, 18 months for central securities depositories that settle trades and a six-month window to allow contractual changes to over-the-counter derivatives.

Financial services groups also face thornier logistical issues on exit day itself. October 31 falls on a Thursday, which means UK companies would face the difficult logistical exercise of switching the systems they use to report transactions midweek — although many EU countries enjoy a public holiday on November 1.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:14 pm

Seems that Brexit has already a positive effect on non-British people leaving the UK. Unfortunately, these are not the ones which the UK wants to see leaving.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49279174?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk&link_location=live-reporting-story
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:36 pm

LJ wrote:
Seems that Brexit has already a positive effect on non-British people leaving the UK. Unfortunately, these are not the ones which the UK wants to see leaving.


With the data from the article that means that they have already lost 1/3 of the net money going to the EU in tax revenues from that small group alone....

I wonder where the 350 million for the NHS will come from....

I have the feeling there is going to be a lot of deficit spending....

Best regards
Thomas
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:12 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
LJ wrote:
I wonder where the 350 million for the NHS will come from....

I have the feeling there is going to be a lot of deficit spending....

Best regards
Thomas



Ironic to see a Tory government suddenly willing to spend big on the NHS and other stuff when their own electoral survival is at stake, after telling the entire country on a daily basis there's just no magic money tree for well over a decade now!

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... c-18823902
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:14 pm

Obvious, as the UK does no longer need to pay the EU - just like promised. :D
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:26 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Ironic to see a Tory government suddenly willing to spend big on the NHS and other stuff when their own electoral survival is at stake, after telling the entire country on a daily basis there's just no magic money tree for well over a decade now!

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... c-18823902


But Boris has a magic money tree. It's in the field with the unicorns. Over there - just at the end of that rainbow...
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:39 pm

scbriml wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Ironic to see a Tory government suddenly willing to spend big on the NHS and other stuff when their own electoral survival is at stake, after telling the entire country on a daily basis there's just no magic money tree for well over a decade now!

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... c-18823902


But Boris has a magic money tree. It's in the field with the unicorns. Over there - just at the end of that rainbow...


And he's throwing with unrestricted visas (for "tier one" immigrants only).

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49282689
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:58 am

LJ wrote:
scbriml wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Ironic to see a Tory government suddenly willing to spend big on the NHS and other stuff when their own electoral survival is at stake, after telling the entire country on a daily basis there's just no magic money tree for well over a decade now!

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... c-18823902


But Boris has a magic money tree. It's in the field with the unicorns. Over there - just at the end of that rainbow...


And he's throwing with unrestricted visas (for "tier one" immigrants only).

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49282689


"We're going to turn the UK into a kind of supercharged magnet, drawing scientists like iron filings from around the world coming to help push forward projects like this (fusion research in Culham) in which we can not only take a scientific lead but a commercial lead as well," he said.


Now that rang a bell....

The Culham Centre for Fusion Energy near Oxford is largely funded by the EU and dozens of its scientists come from outside the UK...... Five researchers have already returned to continental Europe with others said to be considering their positions..


https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37777729

sabenapilot wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
LJ wrote:
I wonder where the 350 million for the NHS will come from....

I have the feeling there is going to be a lot of deficit spending....

Best regards
Thomas


Ironic to see a Tory government suddenly willing to spend big on the NHS and other stuff when their own electoral survival is at stake, after telling the entire country on a daily basis there's just no magic money tree for well over a decade now!


well.... i guess that means the UK Taxpayer has another 60 Million pounds to cough up to keep that little lab running, with the major follow on Project, DEMO, being something that is happening without the UK as of now.

best regards
Thomas
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LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:38 am

This mornings Brexit news includes a statement by a former Trump trade adviser saying that "You [UK] have an enormous amount of leverage, and we'll see how you use it". However, he went on saying that a trade deal could take "months or years". It's interesting to see that the US has already done its homework and identified its weak spots. Hopefully the UK is aware of its strengths and weaknesses as well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49279139
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:39 am

tommy1808 wrote:
"We're going to turn the UK into a kind of supercharged magnet, drawing scientists like iron filings from around the world coming to help push forward projects like this (fusion research in Culham) in which we can not only take a scientific lead but a commercial lead as well," he said.


Now that rang a bell....

The Culham Centre for Fusion Energy near Oxford is largely funded by the EU and dozens of its scientists come from outside the UK...... Five researchers have already returned to continental Europe with others said to be considering their positions..


https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37777729

best regards
Thomas


Indeed, BoJo at his best: boasting about Britain's research projects in front of a EU funded research centre, currently situated in the UK!

"The Culham fusion reseach centre is relying on a collaborative organisation from the EU called EUROfusion: that also includes Switzerland - which is outside the EU - so Britain could try to negotiate a similar kind of membership of this organisation as the Swiss currently enjoy, but for that it would have to become an associated member of Euratom, a seperate European organisation fully embedded in the EU's structures which the UK has said it will leave completely together with the EU itself!

Obviously a no deal brexit is not the way to help Culham's research centre, so amongst the many scenarios being discussed right now by EUROfusion, one would see the reactor in the UK closed down and dismantled with its components repatriated back to the remaining members of the EU.

What a fool BoJo makes of himself, time after time again!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:00 pm

In general uk universities has gained dramaticly of EU for financing and in order to attract advanced research.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:03 pm

More project fear. :sarcastic:

UK economy shrinking for first time since 2012. £ now lower than €1.08

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49290926
The chancellor has told the BBC that he does not expect the UK to slide into recession after data showed the economy shrank by 0.2% between April and June.

Sajid Javid was speaking after the Office for National Statistics said the economy had contracted for the first time since 2012.

The surprise decline came after Brexit stockpiles were unwound and the car industry implemented shutdowns.

The pound slipped when the data was released, raising fears of a recession.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:08 pm

scbriml wrote:
More project fear. :sarcastic:

UK economy shrinking for first time since 2012. £ now lower than €1.08

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49290926
The chancellor has told the BBC that he does not expect the UK to slide into recession after data showed the economy shrank by 0.2% between April and June.

Sajid Javid was speaking after the Office for National Statistics said the economy had contracted for the first time since 2012.

The surprise decline came after Brexit stockpiles were unwound and the car industry implemented shutdowns.

The pound slipped when the data was released, raising fears of a recession.


To be honest, much has to do with the unwounding of stockpiles when Brexit was delayed and shutdowns of some plants (as mentioned). This quarter may be better as companies may start stockpiling again to overcome issues when the UK leaves after October 31st.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:43 pm

But the stokpiling was a major factor for the Uk economy to grow in Q1. So now we have more or less Q1 -> 0 growth. Q2 -> 0 growth.

UK has not left yet so only project fear;

More project fear: Even with a Pound falling during the last year, the property market in UK is falling. Many small investor purchase houses in UK as pension plan. They loose money right now.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:40 pm

olle wrote:
But the stokpiling was a major factor for the Uk economy to grow in Q1. So now we have more or less Q1 -> 0 growth. Q2 -> 0 growth.


What I meant was that we may see some stockpiling again when it becomes clear that there will be a hard Brexit on October 31st. In fact, I doubt anyone will make a bet that there won't be a hard Brexit on that date as hard Brexit is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

BTW A former colleague posted a link to the 10 benefits of the EU for the ordinary traveller. I must admit, he now works for the ECB thus he's a little bit bias towards the EU. But still, this Summer will be the last time UK holidaymakers can enjoy these benefits (unless there is a deal).

https://medium.com/@EuropeanCommission/10-eu-rules-that-help-you-enjoy-your-holidays-9e78437d3b05

If only the EU started this sort of advertsing a few years ago.....
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:47 pm

scbriml wrote:
More project fear. :sarcastic:

UK economy shrinking for first time since 2012. £ now lower than €1.08

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49290926
The chancellor has told the BBC that he does not expect the UK to slide into recession after data showed the economy shrank by 0.2% between April and June.

Sajid Javid was speaking after the Office for National Statistics said the economy had contracted for the first time since 2012.

The surprise decline came after Brexit stockpiles were unwound and the car industry implemented shutdowns.

The pound slipped when the data was released, raising fears of a recession.


Yup, the Pound is just sliding away, would be semi-good news for businesses exporting, but without a deal there is no way of benefiting from this.


Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock Inc., is short the pound and sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet -- a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the U.K. exit the bloc without an agreement.


Bloomberg article on this

So some speculate that it could go as low as $1 = £1
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:50 pm

U.K. Power Outage Disrupts Trains, Traffic Lights in London


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... works-says

And no, this power outage is not caused by the EU or Brexit. Nice to see some problems the UK is facing isn't because of Brexit, so normal life does continue and so do normal problems. Kind of reassuring in a strange kind of way.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:09 pm

It’s interesting reading the comments made over the last few days, it seems the economy talk is only a phenomenon of the UK, yes markets are reacting to the uncertainty of Brexit and local market indicators are showing just that uncertainty as no one really knows what’s going to happen at the eleventh hour, Not all of the UK problems are Brexit related.


The global economy is slowing you only have to look at the AU and overall local market impacts to see that housing has fallen the AUD has hit levels just above GFC, there are fears that Germany will fall into recession fears after sharp decline in industrial production and which has also happened in France. It appears that global economy is sliding towards recession with the continuation of the US-China trade war, the member nations of the European Union economy overall is not performing and is in decline. The thing is everyone anticipated that leading up to withdrawl will be rocky and following the exit if we left with a deal or not.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:14 pm

A101 wrote:
It’s interesting reading the comments made over the last few days, it seems the economy talk is only a phenomenon of the UK, yes markets are reacting to the uncertainty of Brexit and local market indicators are showing just that uncertainty as no one really knows what’s going to happen at the eleventh hour, Not all of the UK problems are Brexit related.


The global economy is slowing you only have to look at the AU and overall local market impacts to see that housing has fallen the AUD has hit levels just above GFC, there are fears that Germany will fall into recession fears after sharp decline in industrial production and which has also happened in France. It appears that global economy is sliding towards recession with the continuation of the US-China trade war, the member nations of the European Union economy overall is not performing and is in decline. The thing is everyone anticipated that leading up to withdrawl will be rocky and following the exit if we left with a deal or not.


So nothing to see there is your massage?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:22 pm

The problem is not the fall of pound against euro. The problem is it does not increase demand for uk product and services.



Why with the weak pound is not uk exports rockets?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:51 pm

Dutchy wrote:

So nothing to see there is your massage?



No, just the message that every little bit of doom and gloom as people are describing is not totally Brexit related. If people can’t see that than Germany slowing world exports is that Brexit fault too?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:53 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

So nothing to see there is your massage?



No, just the message that every little bit of doom and gloom as people are describing is not totally Brexit related. If people can’t see that than Germany slowing world exports is that Brexit fault too?


No, that is the fault of Trump with his little trade war with China. China is a large car market for....German cars.

The Brittish economy is slowing is due to Brexit and its consequences as has been explained.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

So nothing to see there is your massage?



No, just the message that every little bit of doom and gloom as people are describing is not totally Brexit related. If people can’t see that than Germany slowing world exports is that Brexit fault too?


No, that is the fault of Trump with his little trade war with China. China is a large car market for....German cars.

The Brittish economy is slowing is due to Brexit and its consequences as has been explained.



So the slowing global impact and the trade war between the US-China can’t have an effect as well, it’s all down to Brexit thanks for that tip the world events do not affect the UK.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:14 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:


No, just the message that every little bit of doom and gloom as people are describing is not totally Brexit related. If people can’t see that than Germany slowing world exports is that Brexit fault too?


No, that is the fault of Trump with his little trade war with China. China is a large car market for....German cars.

The Brittish economy is slowing is due to Brexit and its consequences as has been explained.



So the slowing global impact and the trade war between the US-China can’t have an effect as well, it’s all down to Brexit thanks for that tip the world events do not affect the UK.


A mix of bad news does not help anyone.

Brexit, Trump, tradewar etc. That is a toxic mix.

World countries is working hard each year to increase its economics 1-3% in west and 4-6% in the developing world.

Small obstacles for trade can easily change positive trends.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:40 pm

olle wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

No, that is the fault of Trump with his little trade war with China. China is a large car market for....German cars.

The Brittish economy is slowing is due to Brexit and its consequences as has been explained.



So the slowing global impact and the trade war between the US-China can’t have an effect as well, it’s all down to Brexit thanks for that tip the world events do not affect the UK.


A mix of bad news does not help anyone.

Brexit, Trump, tradewar etc. That is a toxic mix.

World countries is working hard each year to increase its economics 1-3% in west and 4-6% in the developing world.

Small obstacles for trade can easily change positive trends.



I agree with what you are saying, at least you have an understanding of the impacts of global events
 
9Patch
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:07 am

A101 wrote:
It appears that global economy is sliding towards recession with the continuation of the US-China trade war...

Just in time for Trump to face the voters.
Perfect!
Thanks to BoJo for doing his part.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:54 am

9Patch wrote:
A101 wrote:
It appears that global economy is sliding towards recession with the continuation of the US-China trade war...

Just in time for Trump to face the voters.
Perfect!
Thanks to BoJo for doing his part.


And Salvini s also doing its job..

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

So nothing to see there is your massage?



No, just the message that every little bit of doom and gloom as people are describing is not totally Brexit related. If people can’t see that than Germany slowing world exports is that Brexit fault too?


Thus you acknowledge that Brexit is slowing down the UK (but also the EU) economy? However, you do need to acknowledge that the stockpiling in 1Q 2019 and subsequent reducing of stocks is entirely attributable towards Brexit as are the extreme low investment levels in the UK? Investment in the remainder of the EU s low, but not as low as in the UK. Yes, world events play a part as well, but the situation is made worse due to Brexit in the UK and to a lesser extent in the remainder of the EU.

Dutchy wrote:
No, that is the fault of Trump with his little trade war with China. China is a large car market for....German cars.


Yet, this also applies to a lesser extent to cars made in the UK. You've to agree that it's not only Brexit which tanks the UK economy. Brexit just made it much unnecessarily worse.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:18 am

A101 wrote:
olle wrote:
A101 wrote:


So the slowing global impact and the trade war between the US-China can’t have an effect as well, it’s all down to Brexit thanks for that tip the world events do not affect the UK.


A mix of bad news does not help anyone.

Brexit, Trump, tradewar etc. That is a toxic mix.

World countries is working hard each year to increase its economics 1-3% in west and 4-6% in the developing world.

Small obstacles for trade can easily change positive trends.



I agree with what you are saying, at least you have an understanding of the impacts of global events


And you want to create a big obstacle for the UK by the Brexit. Sure it is a mix, but a big part of the mix for the UK is Brexit, even you agree that Brexit will cause problems and have a big impact on the UK economy in the short (and medium?) term.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:21 am

LJ wrote:
Yet, this also applies to a lesser extent to cars made in the UK. You've to agree that it's not only Brexit which tanks the UK economy. Brexit just made it much unnecessarily worse.


Sure, the UK isn't immune to the world's economy anybody will acknowledge that, but what you say shooting yourself in the foot doesn't help a bit. And Brexit hasn't even happened yet.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:05 am

if car industry comes into a downsize mood, they will look at wich production sites is most efficient. If so many brands se uk as the weak spot this will also effect the network of suppliers. on top of brexit there is FTA Japan EU not helping the uk position. If Japan can send finished cars directly to EU I see no reason for UK based production.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:26 am

olle wrote:
if car industry comes into a downsize mood, they will look at wich production sites is most efficient. If so many brands se uk as the weak spot this will also effect the network of suppliers. on top of brexit there is FTA Japan EU not helping the uk position. If Japan can send finished cars directly to EU I see no reason for UK based production.


Especially if with a hard Brexit, cars produced in the UK will be 10% more expensive and why pay that extra money for nothing? So yes you are correct, because of the uncertainty I guess that most manufacturers will look at the UK as their weakest link.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:40 am

LJ wrote:

Thus you acknowledge that Brexit is slowing down the UK (but also the EU) economy? However, you do need to acknowledge that the stockpiling in 1Q 2019 and subsequent reducing of stocks is entirely attributable towards Brexit as are the extreme low investment levels in the UK? Investment in the remainder of the EU s low, but not as low as in the UK. Yes, world events play a part as well, but the situation is made worse due to Brexit in the UK and to a lesser extent in the remainder of the EU.




I have never shied away from the potential economic impacts of Brexit, go back over all my posts and you will see that and I have actully said that there are benifits to being a member economically if the union was purely a trade pact but unfortunately it isn’t.


That’s the might be the whole point of difference between from the posters from the continent and pro leave from the UK is I’m betting a majority don’t look at the EU as a whole as a political union but as a trade block and we do not like the directions the EU wants to move to. I haven’t got a problem if majority of member nations want to move in that direction, it’s just a direction I prefer the UK do not.


Brexit to most remainers is about potential economics suicide, leavers just want a break from the EU to be able to make laws and trade with other like minded nations without 27 others influenceing UK interests from within the EU trade agreements
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:25 am

A short downturn will be followed by lasting boom, once the Torries can make the UK globally competitive again and free of the limitations imposed by the EU.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:44 am

Yes, and get me some unicorns....
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins

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