A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:25 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
As imagined, yeah, not as actually present at the time. That's the point.


Does anyone else in the union besides France have that capability to respond to global events and have the capbilty to sustain it independently?


Do you wish to crash out NATO as well? If not, this point is mute.



Once Brussels gets its EUDF I think NATO will dissolve anyway
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:25 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
My speculation on the Ministry of Food is to ensure the supply in a timely manner in this case increasing supply lines from other sources other than the EU. The only people talking rationing are pro remain trying to put the wind up people.


Serious question, why get it from other sources than the EU? The problem is that the UK is going to crash out of every trade deal it has, so it doesn't matter from which country it is going to source its food from, it is all done on WTO rules.



Incorrect the uk have a number of mutual recognition agreements in place for trade so if we have tariffs with the EU those MRA rolloveron exitday under the same conditions as we currently have


Yeah for about 20% of the trade, other than the EU. Which countries were they? I remember Israel, which others?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:48 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Serious question, why get it from other sources than the EU? The problem is that the UK is going to crash out of every trade deal it has, so it doesn't matter from which country it is going to source its food from, it is all done on WTO rules.



Incorrect the uk have a number of mutual recognition agreements in place for trade so if we have tariffs with the EU those MRA rolloveron exitday under the same conditions as we currently have


Yeah for about 20% of the trade, other than the EU. Which countries were they? I remember Israel, which others?


South Korea.... the country that realized what kind of choke hold that offers even for them as a rather small trading partner, and put a time limit on it......

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:58 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Serious question, why get it from other sources than the EU? The problem is that the UK is going to crash out of every trade deal it has, so it doesn't matter from which country it is going to source its food from, it is all done on WTO rules.



Incorrect the uk have a number of mutual recognition agreements in place for trade so if we have tariffs with the EU those MRA rolloveron exitday under the same conditions as we currently have


Yeah for about 20% of the trade, other than the EU. Which countries were they? I remember Israel, which others?


Oz kiwi NZ USA quite a lot of the smaller nations there a UKGov website on it, and most importantly most of these can nearly replace the EU as the food bowl for the UK, hence my post some time ago that the EU will most likely lose market share, the UK market is insignificant to the EU so no great loss is it for the EU
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:02 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:


Incorrect the uk have a number of mutual recognition agreements in place for trade so if we have tariffs with the EU those MRA rolloveron exitday under the same conditions as we currently have


Yeah for about 20% of the trade, other than the EU. Which countries were they? I remember Israel, which others?


South Korea.... the country that realized what kind of choke hold that offers even for them as a rather small trading partner, and put a time limit on it......

best regards
Thomas


They are not meant to be long-term agreements and they are in place only to ensure minimal disruption to trade in the short-term, until free trade agreement can be reached
 
BestWestern
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:22 am

Rationing or not, the need for a Food minister for top five global economy for a self inflicted decision to exit ‘no ifs, no buts’ shows you how eccentric it all is.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:40 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Yeah for about 20% of the trade, other than the EU. Which countries were they? I remember Israel, which others?


South Korea.... the country that realized what kind of choke hold that offers even for them as a rather small trading partner, and put a time limit on it......

best regards
Thomas


They are not meant to be long-term agreements and they are in place only to ensure minimal disruption to trade in the short-term, until free trade agreement can be reached


Yup, and the South Koreans where smart enough to put a deadline, knowing that the UK is going to need them more than they need them.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:01 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

South Korea.... the country that realized what kind of choke hold that offers even for them as a rather small trading partner, and put a time limit on it......

best regards
Thomas


They are not meant to be long-term agreements and they are in place only to ensure minimal disruption to trade in the short-term, until free trade agreement can be reached


Yup, and the South Koreans where smart enough to put a deadline, knowing that the UK is going to need them more than they need them.

best regards
Thomas


Yeah what ever it,reciprocal.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:05 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:

They are not meant to be long-term agreements and they are in place only to ensure minimal disruption to trade in the short-term, until free trade agreement can be reached


Yup, and the South Koreans where smart enough to put a deadline, knowing that the UK is going to need them more than they need them.

best regards
Thomas


Yeah what ever it,reciprocal.


Their FTA with the EU doesn´t have a time limit.....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:12 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Yup, and the South Koreans where smart enough to put a deadline, knowing that the UK is going to need them more than they need them.

best regards
Thomas


Yeah what ever it,reciprocal.


Their FTA with the EU doesn´t have a time limit.....

best regards
Thomas




And?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:33 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:

Yeah what ever it,reciprocal.


Their FTA with the EU doesn´t have a time limit.....

best regards
Thomas




And?


The choke hold isn´t reciprocal, because for SK trade with the UK is really tiny, but for the UK its about 20% of all the trade continuation they got.....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:45 am

Regarding crashing out of Nato, it seems like there is a few changes on the way,

Usa see nsto as irrelevant.

EU countries considering usa consideration now pushing for an EU army.

What we from that probably will see is a Nato includung usa, canada, uk, norway, tukry and EU.

Until now uk has been the second biggest member.

In the future you will see 2 big, usa and EU and a few smaller inkluding uk.

Uk will loose in influance.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:26 am

olle wrote:
Regarding crashing out of Nato, it seems like there is a few changes on the way,

Usa see nsto as irrelevant.

EU countries considering usa consideration now pushing for an EU army.

What we from that probably will see is a Nato includung usa, canada, uk, norway, tukry and EU.

Until now uk has been the second biggest member.

In the future you will see 2 big, usa and EU and a few smaller inkluding uk.

Uk will loose in influance.


I disagree NATO will lose its relevance to the US once the EUDF become self sufficient, once that happens US will become more isolationist and five eyes will increase as along with it. European continent can look after themselves. Won’t happen in the short term maybe about a generation
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:01 am

olle wrote:
Usa see nsto as irrelevant. .


One man in the US does think so..... the US Senate send him a very clear message regarding any ideas about giving up NATO in a 97:2 vote.

A101 wrote:
once the EUDF become self sufficient


The forces in the EU already out-man, out-gun, out-fighter, out-spend, out-ship, out-artillery, out-everything any conceivable enemy by factors on the order or 3 to 4. I would call that way beyond sufficient already..... and the Lisbon treaty is a way stronger defense treaty as the North Atlantic one, just hardly anyone noticed that...

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Thomas
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Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:19 am

The NATO is not mean to protect EU per se far 35 years at least , it is just a way for the US to be sure that if a war with Russia was going to happen, it would be on Eu ground and not directly between Russia and the US on the other side of the planet.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:46 pm

A101 wrote:
olle wrote:
Regarding crashing out of Nato, it seems like there is a few changes on the way,

Usa see nsto as irrelevant.

EU countries considering usa consideration now pushing for an EU army.

What we from that probably will see is a Nato includung usa, canada, uk, norway, tukry and EU.

Until now uk has been the second biggest member.

In the future you will see 2 big, usa and EU and a few smaller inkluding uk.

Uk will loose in influance.




I disagree NATO will lose its relevance to the US once the EUDF become self sufficient, once that happens US will become more isolationist and five eyes will increase as along with it. European continent can look after themselves. Won’t happen in the short term maybe about a generation


I agree with you. But the mentioning that Article 5 is not that strong makes special Germany go in the same direction as France.

Nato will be relevant but european members will be part either direct thu Nato and EU members thru EUDF.

This means that also non Nato members like Sweden and Finland will without dramatic discussions become Nato member, which sweden and Finland in every real term already is.

My second point is that UK from being the second biggest army in Nato will as you say see a huge USA member, a huge EU27 member + Canada + UK + Turkey + Norway. In this combination UK army will be a small army compared to the 2 big ones.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:51 pm

A majority in the UK wants the real Brexit with no deal: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1V21YQ

USA will fully support the UK in a hard Brexit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/bolton- ... rexit.html

Good times ahead for the UK!
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
A majority in the UK wants the real Brexit with no deal: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1V21YQ


a majority of in the UK wants a dictator, suspending parliament in a parliamentarian democracy is just that..... Brexiteers are literally enemies of the state by now... interesting....

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Thomas
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Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:19 pm

A101 wrote:
I disagree NATO will lose its relevance to the US once the EUDF become self sufficient, once that happens US will become more isolationist and five eyes will increase as along with it. European continent can look after themselves. Won’t happen in the short term maybe about a generation

NATO's relevance is in binding the USA and Europe together in a defense alliance.

Many of the european NATO members cooperating more closely among each other is completely consistent with the goals of NATO, actually even more so than their separate militaries now.

It is simply Donald Trump himself who has already begun to push for the destruction of NATO as the by far ever biggest present to the guy who shoved him into the White House in 2016.

So far Congress is keeping him from going through with it, even the republican-dominated Senate has managed to find enough of a spine to resist that.

Your fantasies of a EUDF somehow undermining NATO (how so? all members had been and will still remain NATO members!) are purely transparent emotional spite with absolutely zero substance or rational basis.
 
Palop
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:25 pm

seahawk wrote:
A majority in the UK wants the real Brexit with no deal: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1V21YQ

USA will fully support the UK in a hard Brexit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/bolton- ... rexit.html

Good times ahead for the UK!


My guess is that the majority in the UK is just tired of the whole farce and just want it all over with now. They pretty much thinks that whatever happens with a Brexit, they can deal with the consequences after Oct 31.
The problem, of course, is that when November 1st comes with a no-deal Brexit, things aren't over by a long shot. They still will have to find some sort of arrangement with Europe, one way or another. And there are years of negotiations with other countries as well. Brexit is the gift that keeps giving and giving, just like that night in Ibiza and the following doctors visits, or the mother-in-law who is "just living with you until she gets herself sorted out after the divorce".
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:54 pm

seahawk wrote:
A majority in the UK wants the real Brexit with no deal: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1V21YQ

USA will fully support the UK in a hard Brexit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/bolton- ... rexit.html

Good times ahead for the UK!


Well the poll isn’t exactly impartial. Take a look. These are the first 3 questions.

"Parliament is out of touch with the British public" (Agree 77%, Disagree 11%, don't know 12%)

"On Brexit, most MPs seem to ignore the wishes of voters and push their own agendas" (78%, 9%, 12%)

"The Queen should remain above politics and refuse to get involved in Brexit" (62%, 19%, 19%)

And only then:

"Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs stopping it (44%, 37%, 19%)

From there, you only get a greater than 50% mark from excluding the ‘don’t know’s” from the poll.

Personally I’d consider this poll to skewed in one direction.

The questions are already leading the person reading them to a specific conclusion. They’re almost right up there with ‘would you like a million dollars or a punch in the gut!’
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:40 pm

Not disagreeing with you, but all those news are a product of the British press.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:57 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A majority in the UK wants the real Brexit with no deal: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1V21YQ


a majority of in the UK wants a dictator, suspending parliament in a parliamentarian democracy is just that..... Brexiteers are literally enemies of the state by now... interesting....

best regards
Thomas




Nope, that just tells me that if the poll is replicated amongst the electorate is that they want to put it finally to bed so that the country has clarity on where it stands.

He still has to face a GE sooner or later that’s not the sign of a dictatorship to me
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:49 pm

seahawk wrote:
A majority in the UK wants the real Brexit with no deal: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1V21YQ

USA will fully support the UK in a hard Brexit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/bolton- ... rexit.html

Good times ahead for the UK!



But they want to negotiate industry by industry and what was mentioned financial services is complicated. I also read somewhere, I cannoyt find the source right now that they assume that GFA will be no problem.

What shall UK export to US? I understand that US want to export a lot to UK.

In translation; USA take what it wants and when it wants. Good luck UK!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:02 pm

seahawk wrote:
USA will fully support the UK in a hard Brexit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/bolton- ... rexit.html


so says Trump advisor Bolton.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:49 pm

@Dutchy

Looks like you will get a ruling on prorogue parliament, and perhaps whether final Brexit needs an act of parliament. Not sure if it’s just a poor choice of words but we already know that parliament has to ratify the withdrawl agreement that is beyond doubt, but if there is not agreement to ratify I believe it is beyond reproach that meaning of TEU A50 Sect 3 is beyond doubt and is quite clear on the withdrawal process as to what it says, I’m expecting if they appeal the ruling it will go to the ECJ as it currently has supremacy over the UK courts or at least ask for an interpretation


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg ... eal-brexit
The petition argues the EU Withdrawal Act requires parliament to ratify the final Brexit deal



If parliament is insistent that we cannot leave without a deal then parliament then has to Legislate to revoke A50 and there is the problem of time, I don’t there is any but leave without a deal
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:26 pm

A101 wrote:
@Dutchy

Looks like you will get a ruling on prorogue parliament, and perhaps whether final Brexit needs an act of parliament. Not sure if it’s just a poor choice of words but we already know that parliament has to ratify the withdrawl agreement that is beyond doubt, but if there is not agreement to ratify I believe it is beyond reproach that meaning of TEU A50 Sect 3 is beyond doubt and is quite clear on the withdrawal process as to what it says, I’m expecting if they appeal the ruling it will go to the ECJ as it currently has supremacy over the UK courts or at least ask for an interpretation


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg ... eal-brexit
The petition argues the EU Withdrawal Act requires parliament to ratify the final Brexit deal



If parliament is insistent that we cannot leave without a deal then parliament then has to Legislate to revoke A50 and there is the problem of time, I don’t there is any but leave without a deal


Interesting, we'll see what the British court has to say about it.

Anyhow, we have yet ot find out what article 50 means, if after the two year period there is no deal, does it mean A. that the country in question is kicked out of the EU, or B. that Article 50 is revoked automatically if parties can't reach a deal. Perhaps the default position is to stay within the EU and not crashing out.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:28 pm

@Dutchy

The actual EU withdrawl Act does not mention that revoking A50 will happen in the event of no agreement being reached, the only provision is how the government will proceed in the event no agreement is reached and if parliament does not pass the agreement and with a date before 21 January 2019.

The way I see it A50 Sec 3 is the default position

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.



http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/201 ... ns/enacted

13Parliamentary approval of the outcome of negotiations with the EU

(1)The withdrawal agreement may be ratified only if—


And

3)Subsection (4) applies if the House of Commons decides not to pass the resolution mentioned in subsection (1)(b).



The above has already been complied with by to Theresa May, the Contentious section of the Act deals with if no agreement has been reached and only deals with moving forward and the UK leaving the EU and under the amended legislation for the EU Withdrawl Act 2019
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/201 ... ts/enacted

7)Subsection (8) applies if the Prime Minister makes a statement before the end of 21 January 2019 that no agreement in principle can be reached in negotiations under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union on the substance of—
(a)the arrangements for the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, and
(b)the framework for the future relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom after withdrawal.
(8)A Minister of the Crown must, within the period of 14 days beginning with the day on which the statement mentioned in subsection (7) is made—
(a)make a statement setting out how Her Majesty’s Government proposes to proceed, and
(b)make arrangements for—
(i)a motion in neutral terms, to the effect that the House of Commons has considered the matter of the statement mentioned in paragraph (a), to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of seven Commons sitting days beginning with the day on which the statement mentioned in paragraph (a) is made, and
(ii)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the statement mentioned in paragraph (a) to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of seven Lords sitting days beginning with the day on which the statement mentioned in paragraph (a) is made.
(9)A statement under subsection (7) or (8)(a) must be made in writing and be published in such manner as the Minister making it considers appropriate.
(10)Subsection (11) applies if, at the end of 21 January 2019, there is no agreement in principle in negotiations under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union on the substance of—
(a)the arrangements for the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, and
(b)the framework for the future relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom after withdrawal.
(11)A Minister of the Crown must, within the period of five days beginning with the end of 21 January 2019—
(a)make a statement setting out how Her Majesty’s Government proposes to proceed, and
(b)make arrangements for—
(i)a motion in neutral terms, to the effect that the House of Commons has considered the matter of the statement mentioned in paragraph (a), to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of five Commons sitting days beginning with the end of 21 January 2019, and
(ii)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the statement mentioned in paragraph (a) to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of five Lords sitting days beginning with the end of 21 January 2019.



The only way the no deal can be stopped is by an act of parliament revoking A50!!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:46 pm

A101 wrote:
The only way the no deal can be stopped is by an act of parliament revoking A50!!


So you say, the author of the article I linked came to a different conclusion. I have not nearly enough training in law to say anything remotely useful about it, but it is an intriguing argument being made. And can't be just waved away by linking your interpretation. Ultimately the right interpretation needs to be made by judges, not by you or I.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:11 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
The only way the no deal can be stopped is by an act of parliament revoking A50!!


So you say, the author of the article I linked came to a different conclusion. I have not nearly enough training in law to say anything remotely useful about it, but it is an intriguing argument being made. And can't be just waved away by linking your interpretation. Ultimately the right interpretation needs to be made by judges, not by you or I.



Agree it’s intriguing and am looking forward to the outcome, but I could not help but notice the linked article from you is that it didn’t mention the Withdrawal Act kf 2018 unless I missed it, that piece of legislation makes law in which the government must follow to withdraw from the European Union

When parliament amended that piece of legislation they missed the chance to insert in the event of no agreement being reached that certain steps must be taken it could have been a number of different Things such as remote article 50 or perhaps a further referendum
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:03 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
@Dutchy

Looks like you will get a ruling on prorogue parliament, and perhaps whether final Brexit needs an act of parliament. Not sure if it’s just a poor choice of words but we already know that parliament has to ratify the withdrawl agreement that is beyond doubt, but if there is not agreement to ratify I believe it is beyond reproach that meaning of TEU A50 Sect 3 is beyond doubt and is quite clear on the withdrawal process as to what it says, I’m expecting if they appeal the ruling it will go to the ECJ as it currently has supremacy over the UK courts or at least ask for an interpretation


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg ... eal-brexit
The petition argues the EU Withdrawal Act requires parliament to ratify the final Brexit deal



If parliament is insistent that we cannot leave without a deal then parliament then has to Legislate to revoke A50 and there is the problem of time, I don’t there is any but leave without a deal


Interesting, we'll see what the British court has to say about it.

Anyhow, we have yet ot find out what article 50 means, if after the two year period there is no deal, does it mean A. that the country in question is kicked out of the EU, or B. that Article 50 is revoked automatically if parties can't reach a deal. Perhaps the default position is to stay within the EU and not crashing out.


If article 50 would need a deal, the EU could theoretically force a country to stay by not agreeing to a deal, so it is obvious that the default outcome is the no deal scenario and all obligations to each other end.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:07 am

seahawk wrote:
If article 50 would need a deal, the EU could theoretically force a country to stay by not agreeing to a deal, so it is obvious that the default outcome is the no deal scenario and all obligations to each other end.


If you say so, we will have to see if that is indeed the interpretation that is given to this.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:25 am

I think that has been covered in depth when the question came up if the UK could revoke or not, and the EU court pointed out that the leaving country is fully in control of the process. It was made clear that triggering Article 50 was a sovereign decision of the leaving country, revoking was a sovereign decision of the leaving country, so if you follow that logic signing a deal or not has to be a sovereign decision by the leaving country and the EU also.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:47 am

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
If article 50 would need a deal, the EU could theoretically force a country to stay by not agreeing to a deal, so it is obvious that the default outcome is the no deal scenario and all obligations to each other end.


If you say so, we will have to see if that is indeed the interpretation that is given to this.


It is the only interpretation that makes sense. Otherwise Article 50 might just as well not exist since you would only be able to leave the EU if the other member states let you. A bit like the backstop tries to do, and will not fly for the same reason.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:52 am

seahawk wrote:
I think that has been covered in depth when the question came up if the UK could revoke or not, and the EU court pointed out that the leaving country is fully in control of the process. It was made clear that triggering Article 50 was a sovereign decision of the leaving country, revoking was a sovereign decision of the leaving country, so if you follow that logic signing a deal or not has to be a sovereign decision by the leaving country and the EU also.


that is not the question here, if it is sovereign or not or whether it could leave or not. It is free to leave whenever it wants. The question is what happens automatically after the two-year period. The EU has no mechanism to boot one of its members.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:13 am

Article 50 is quite clear on that.

"The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

If 2 years have passed and no agreement has been found, the treaties end, unless the EU Council and the state wishing to leave agree to extend the negotiation period. And if the UK rejects a further extension, the treaties end.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:49 am

seahawk wrote:
Article 50 is quite clear on that.

"The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

If 2 years have passed and no agreement has been found, the treaties end, unless the EU Council and the state wishing to leave agree to extend the negotiation period. And if the UK rejects a further extension, the treaties end.


You can argue all you want, there is a scholar whom disagree with you and she is knowledgeable on the suspect. So if there is a court case, and I suspect there will be because of the things at stake, we will have to wait and see what interpretation is correct. So arguing here is quite meaningless.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:05 am

And her point is valid, but not in regard to EU law, but to British law. Any withdrawal decision would need to be ratified by parliament, but it is not up to the EU to oversee the constitutional aspects of the leaving member state. British courts would need to step in and order an extension until parliament has agreed on a form of withdrawal. This extension could imho not be rejected by the EU.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:39 am

seahawk wrote:
This extension could imho not be rejected by the EU.


While i generally agree with what you have been writing about this recently, Art. 50 is very clear that extensions need unanimous consent of all members, so that would need quite the innovative reading on the text.

While their was obviously wiggle room to see if the leaving state can withdraw the Art. 50 notification unilaterally,

unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.


doesn´t seem to have much room for interpretation. From unanimously to unilateral is quite the step.

best regards
Thomas
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:54 am

Well, imho if the UK court rules the withdrawal without consent by parliament unconstitutional all EU members are bound by Article 2 and 9 of the treaty,

Article 2: "The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.."
Article 9 "In all its activities, the Union shall observe the principle of the equality of its citizens, who shall receive equal attention from its institutions, bodies, offices and agencies. Every national of a Member State shall be a citizen of the Union. Citizenship of the Union shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship."

Currently the UK´s citizens are also EU citizens and if a British court declares the leaving of the EU performed by British government unlawful, the EU is bound to protect the British citizens, as they are also EU citizens until the UK leaves in a constitutional and lawful way.
 
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Loew
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:58 pm

A101 wrote:
All that shows is that there is a market that the UK can tap into to help replace the food bowl of EU imports, but the main point of difference between the UK-NZ in the EU context is that the UK accounts for roughly 14% of the EU’s GDP,and can contribute roughly 40% of its global military power, about 45% of its nuclear capability, and 50% of its veto rights at the UN Security Council, I don’t know about you but the UK brings a lot to the table for the EU that most remainers dismiss as being insignificant.


Just a fe notes:

1. EU is not a member of UN´s security council. Talking about how the "UK holds 50% of EU´s voting rights in the UN security council" is pure demagogy and I´m sure you are well aware of that.

2. UK is not a "global military power" (whatever that exactly means) and has not been one since 1945, which btw. is also one of the reasons why the British colonial system totally collapsed.

3. EU doesn´t have nuclear weapons, or army for that matter, your numbers comparing (I suppose) French and UK nuclear capability are first off, secondly irrelevant, and third strategic nuclear game is not just about number of warheads, it´s also about total destructive power, delivery capability, ability to get past enemy defences, second strike capability etc.. Honestly UK´s "nuclear deterrent" is fairly weak because of 1. questionable status of strategic nuclear warheads, 2. questionable status od delivery vehicles and 3. it gives the commanders of submarines option to simply disobey order to launch, which is something you won´t see in any US or Russian systems.

Bottom line is that if the EU would feel a need to full-scale deploy strategic nuclear weapons, it has the money and resources needed to achieve that goal, something that cannot be exactly said about the UK one reson being that there are very little uranium deposits in the UK which is needed to make plutonium. Now if you think that there is always Australia or USA ready to help, in this specific matter I wouldn´t be too optimistic.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:49 pm

seahawk wrote:
Well, imho if the UK court rules the withdrawal without consent by parliament unconstitutional all EU members are bound by Article 2 and 9 of the treaty, .


The parliament can make a law revoking Art. 50 and get around that, unless of course the ECJ wants to place the UK under disability and assign a legal guardian.

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Thomas
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:12 pm

seahawk wrote:
Well, imho if the UK court rules the withdrawal without consent by parliament unconstitutional all EU members are bound by Article 2 and 9 of the treaty,

Article 2: "The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.."
Article 9 "In all its activities, the Union shall observe the principle of the equality of its citizens, who shall receive equal attention from its institutions, bodies, offices and agencies. Every national of a Member State shall be a citizen of the Union. Citizenship of the Union shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship."

Currently the UK´s citizens are also EU citizens and if a British court declares the leaving of the EU performed by British government unlawful, the EU is bound to protect the British citizens, as they are also EU citizens until the UK leaves in a constitutional and lawful way.


Correct and they will, so that is a trueism, but what is your point?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:17 pm

UK citizens are also citizens of the EU and as long as the UK has not left in a constitutional and legal way, they deserve the same protection by EU institutions as anybody else within the EU.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:24 pm

Nancy Pelosi has just reiterated that the US Congress will definitely block any trade deal with the UK if Brexit damages the Good Friday Agreement in any way and that John Bolton has no competence at all for such negotiations anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... isk-pelosi
No chance of US-UK deal if Northern Ireland peace at risk - Pelosi


That position is unchanged and effectively pulls the rug out from under the current UK government's clear intentions.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:30 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
If article 50 would need a deal, the EU could theoretically force a country to stay by not agreeing to a deal, so it is obvious that the default outcome is the no deal scenario and all obligations to each other end.


If you say so, we will have to see if that is indeed the interpretation that is given to this.


It is the only interpretation that makes sense. Otherwise Article 50 might just as well not exist since you would only be able to leave the EU if the other member states let you. A bit like the backstop tries to do, and will not fly for the same reason.

The Backstop is an agreement freely entered into by both parties and only binding as a result of such a deliberate agreement.

Nothing is forcing the UK to agree to it – well, except basic common sense.
But we know how little standing basic common sense has in Westminster these days (and years).
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:45 pm

seahawk wrote:
Well, imho if the UK court rules the withdrawal without consent by parliament unconstitutional all EU members are bound by Article 2 and 9 of the treaty,

Article 2: "The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.."
Article 9 "In all its activities, the Union shall observe the principle of the equality of its citizens, who shall receive equal attention from its institutions, bodies, offices and agencies. Every national of a Member State shall be a citizen of the Union. Citizenship of the Union shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship."

Currently the UK´s citizens are also EU citizens and if a British court declares the leaving of the EU performed by British government unlawful, the EU is bound to protect the British citizens, as they are also EU citizens until the UK leaves in a constitutional and lawful way.

Without having climbed entirely down through all the argument's branches this time I still have the impression that a crucial distinction is being overlooked here:

It is absolutely possible that aspects of UK legislation are defective, but as long as the original declaration of the UK government's intention to leave satisfies TEU stipulations those defects do not impede Brexit in any way – such defects are then purely domestic matters with only domestic remedies, if any, with no effect on the UK's exit from the European Union, basically just fodder for additional UK infigthing after Brexit is already in effect but with no effect on Brexit as such.

The rather absurd judgment that the UK can unilaterally revoke its declaration is much more a politically supported golden bridge for the UK to reconsider than actually, really covered by the legal structure of Article 50, and given sufficient political will pretty much anything could be possible (but this court decision was a really bad vehicle for such a political act).

Not least since the political leaders of the EU member states and the EU parliament together have almost unlimited power in the EU if they are in agreement, but so far the UK government is doing absolutely nothing to motivate any political support on the EU side – quite the opposite, in fact.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:47 pm

Klaus wrote:
Nancy Pelosi has just reiterated that the US Congress will definitely block any trade deal with the UK if Brexit damages the Good Friday Agreement in any way and that John Bolton has no competence at all for such negotiations anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... isk-pelosi
No chance of US-UK deal if Northern Ireland peace at risk - Pelosi


That position is unchanged and effectively pulls the rug out from under the current UK government's clear intentions.


No doubt in response to Johnny B's visit to the UK yesterday. This is not a new stance. Pelosi has expressed it very clear and as recently as last month; on what basis did JB and the President believe that the stance would be any different. There. Will. Be. No. Trade. Deal. If. The. GFA. Is. Undermined. This is not merely Ireland's view; it is the view of the EU and it is the view of responsible parties in the US, those who backed it from the outset.

The naivety of the Brits to believe that even if the UK were first in the queue, they would somhow get a quick deal. Yes, it would be a very quick deal - as long as Britain does exactly what America wants in every respect. Huawei, Iran, etc etc. Britain needs to take off the rose tinted glasses and put aside the BS about a special relationship. There is only one reason that the US wants Britain out of the relationship - CONTROL - and taking lessons on international co-operation from someone with JB's unique "pedigree" is naive in the extreme.

At this stage, we have to concede that Britain is leaving the EU. Labour, even if it does take over, will not support a new referendum. Some want it, but Corbyn and the unions won't wear it. The most important focus now is to avoid a no deal scenario; that's entirely the responsiblity of the UK Parliament. No other organisation can stop it. There will be no EU movement on the backstop.
 
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:00 pm

Loew wrote:
Bottom line is that if the EU would feel a need to full-scale deploy strategic nuclear weapons, it has the money and resources needed to achieve that goal


And the EU isn't even Party to the NPT, but is its own subject of international law ...

Best regards
Thomas
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:08 am

Loew wrote:
1. EU is not a member of UN´s security council. Talking about how the "UK holds 50% of EU´s voting rights in the UN security council" is pure demagogy and I´m sure you are well aware of that.


But it’s certainly trying to grab hold of them, and has been for a number of years. It has come up a number of times I even remember the subject being up in the late 90’s with the UK-FR saying in a diplomatic way to eff off and the question again last year sometime


Loew wrote:
2. UK is not a "global military power" (whatever that exactly means) and has not been one since 1945, which btw. is also one of the reasons why the British colonial system totally collapsed.


Quite wrong there, whilst it is greatly diminished and not in the league of the US, the UK still retains its unique capacity to project and extend itself around the globe and sustain it.

I think you might be getting what the difference is between a global power and a superpower

Superpower – A country with a vast national base and enormous national structure, from which to generate overwhelming national instruments and resolve to project and extend itself and its interests – often comprehensively – around the world.

Global Power – A country with a large national base and/or structure, from which to generate extensive instruments and resolve to project and extend itself and its interests – sometimes selectively – around the world.”

Regional Power- A country with a moderate national base and/or structure, from which to develop modest instruments and resolve to defend itself and its interests, primarily within its own region.

Loew wrote:

3. EU doesn´t have nuclear weapons, or army for that matter, your numbers comparing (I suppose) French and UK nuclear capability are first off, secondly irrelevant, and third strategic nuclear game is not just about number of warheads, it´s also about total destructive power, delivery capability, ability to get past enemy defences, second strike capability etc.. Honestly UK´s "nuclear deterrent" is fairly weak because of 1. questionable status of strategic nuclear warheads, 2. questionable status od delivery vehicles and 3. it gives the commanders of submarines option to simply disobey order to launch, which is something you won´t see in any US or Russian systems.



You are assuming I’m talking about numbers far from it. The 50% I’m referring to is the number of nuclear armed members in the EU which by the way is two, once the UK leave that’s 50% of nuclear armed members who have left the union.

And by the way the UK nuclear deterrence is not based on winning a nuclear war, it’s about not losing and starting a nuclear war

Loew wrote:

Bottom line is that if the EU would feel a need to full-scale deploy strategic nuclear weapons, it has the money and resources needed to achieve that goal, something that cannot be exactly said about the UK one reson being that there are very little uranium deposits in the UK which is needed to make plutonium. Now if you think that there is always Australia or USA ready to help, in this specific matter I wouldn´t be too optimistic.


No the EU is not a federal entity as yet the EU is reliant on its members to bring that expertise to the fold. If and when federalisation occours that expertise naturally becomes a part of it.In the matter of raw material Australia is always a willing partner with the UK.


Seems to me you are overthinking my post. But It’s also the reasons why I think when the EU does becomes a federation that will be the end of NATO

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