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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:43 am

A101 wrote:
Loew wrote:
1. EU is not a member of UN´s security council. Talking about how the "UK holds 50% of EU´s voting rights in the UN security council" is pure demagogy and I´m sure you are well aware of that.


But it’s certainly trying to grab hold of them, and has been for a number of years. It has come up a number of times I even remember the subject being up in the late 90’s with the UK-FR saying in a diplomatic way to eff off and the question again last year sometime


Loew wrote:
2. UK is not a "global military power" (whatever that exactly means) and has not been one since 1945, which btw. is also one of the reasons why the British colonial system totally collapsed.


Quite wrong there, whilst it is greatly diminished and not in the league of the US, the UK still retains its unique capacity to project and extend itself around the globe and sustain it.

I think you might be getting what the difference is between a global power and a superpower

Superpower – A country with a vast national base and enormous national structure, from which to generate overwhelming national instruments and resolve to project and extend itself and its interests – often comprehensively – around the world.

Global Power – A country with a large national base and/or structure, from which to generate extensive instruments and resolve to project and extend itself and its interests – sometimes selectively – around the world.”

Regional Power- A country with a moderate national base and/or structure, from which to develop modest instruments and resolve to defend itself and its interests, primarily within its own region.

Loew wrote:

3. EU doesn´t have nuclear weapons, or army for that matter, your numbers comparing (I suppose) French and UK nuclear capability are first off, secondly irrelevant, and third strategic nuclear game is not just about number of warheads, it´s also about total destructive power, delivery capability, ability to get past enemy defences, second strike capability etc.. Honestly UK´s "nuclear deterrent" is fairly weak because of 1. questionable status of strategic nuclear warheads, 2. questionable status od delivery vehicles and 3. it gives the commanders of submarines option to simply disobey order to launch, which is something you won´t see in any US or Russian systems.



You are assuming I’m talking about numbers far from it. The 50% I’m referring to is the number of nuclear armed members in the EU which by the way is two, once the UK leave that’s 50% of nuclear armed members who have left the union.

And by the way the UK nuclear deterrence is not based on winning a nuclear war, it’s about not losing and starting a nuclear war

Loew wrote:

Bottom line is that if the EU would feel a need to full-scale deploy strategic nuclear weapons, it has the money and resources needed to achieve that goal, something that cannot be exactly said about the UK one reson being that there are very little uranium deposits in the UK which is needed to make plutonium. Now if you think that there is always Australia or USA ready to help, in this specific matter I wouldn´t be too optimistic.


No the EU is not a federal entity as yet the EU is reliant on its members to bring that expertise to the fold. If and when federalisation occours that expertise naturally becomes a part of it.In the matter of raw material Australia is always a willing partner with the UK.


Seems to me you are overthinking my post. But It’s also the reasons why I think when the EU does becomes a federation that will be the end of NATO


1. EU security council seat will not happen. France will never give it up and there is no mechanism to reform it. So pointless to talk about it.
2. Where did you get these definitions from? Couldn't find them in a small search. Would be interesting to link your information.
3. As discussed before, talking about defence is irrelevant with NATO in the picture. If anything, if NATO would be dissolved and an EU army is in its place, the case for Brexit becomes even more weak, because it will hurt the UK, all there by itself, an island off the European continent.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Loew
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:54 am

Dear A101:

1. That is your perception which is irrelevant and also has nothing to do with my original statement.

2. You said global. And global means global. So explain, how is the UK going to "project itself" on the other side of this planet all by itself? Let´s say in some conflict deep in the Pacific ocean?
Side note: You are unable to even "project yourself" and leave the EU, yet you are talking about UK projecting itself around the globe? You do realize that your military is under control of the same people who are dealing with brexit?

3. You didnt say 50%, you said 45% in your original post. And you were not talking about number of countries but rather about nuclear capability in your original post. Still a nice try to spin this your way, however I can accept that game anytime as you are wrong again. There are more nuclear armed countries than just two in the EU. Even Czechoslovakia was nuclear armed till 1989 btw.

And as for UK nuclear weapons programme, well originally I wrote a long paragraph here, but what is the point? Instead I will say, OK whatever, take back control and build your stockpile however you want. Good luck and we can talk in 10 years about how well it went.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:43 am

Loew wrote:
Dear A101:

1. That is your perception which is irrelevant and also has nothing to do with my original statement.

2. You said global. And global means global. So explain, how is the UK going to "project itself" on the other side of this planet all by itself? Let´s say in some conflict deep in the Pacific ocean?
Side note: You are unable to even "project yourself" and leave the EU, yet you are talking about UK projecting itself around the globe? You do realize that your military is under control of the same people who are dealing with brexit?

3. You didnt say 50%, you said 45% in your original post. And you were not talking about number of countries but rather about nuclear capability in your original post. Still a nice try to spin this your way, however I can accept that game anytime as you are wrong again. There are more nuclear armed countries than just two in the EU. Even Czechoslovakia was nuclear armed till 1989 btw.

And as for UK nuclear weapons programme, well originally I wrote a long paragraph here, but what is the point? Instead I will say, OK whatever, take back control and build your stockpile however you want. Good luck and we can talk in 10 years about how well it went.


Seriously, what has the military got to do with Brexit?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Loew
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:02 am

Dutchy wrote:

Seriously, what has the military got to do with Brexit?


Actually there are some military and possibly intelligence implications, but not exactly those A101 claims there are. After Brexit, UK won´t be participating in EDA for example. Same goes for CSDP and CFSP. UK is not participating in PESCO already but took part in CARD, which will be over too. Thre are also several military clausules in the Lisbon treaty which won´t be applicable to the UK anymore, such as mutual defence clause.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:04 am

Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
Dear A101:

1. That is your perception which is irrelevant and also has nothing to do with my original statement.

2. You said global. And global means global. So explain, how is the UK going to "project itself" on the other side of this planet all by itself? Let´s say in some conflict deep in the Pacific ocean?
Side note: You are unable to even "project yourself" and leave the EU, yet you are talking about UK projecting itself around the globe? You do realize that your military is under control of the same people who are dealing with brexit?

3. You didnt say 50%, you said 45% in your original post. And you were not talking about number of countries but rather about nuclear capability in your original post. Still a nice try to spin this your way, however I can accept that game anytime as you are wrong again. There are more nuclear armed countries than just two in the EU. Even Czechoslovakia was nuclear armed till 1989 btw.

And as for UK nuclear weapons programme, well originally I wrote a long paragraph here, but what is the point? Instead I will say, OK whatever, take back control and build your stockpile however you want. Good luck and we can talk in 10 years about how well it went.


Seriously, what has the military got to do with Brexit?


Nothing, but the UK has hinted a few times about using it as a negotiation token.

Won't work though.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:21 am

.



Loew wrote:

1. That is your perception which is irrelevant and also has nothing to do with my original statement.


I don’t see how when it is fact that it is pushing for a permanent seat, and have been tying to get France onside even so far as say they will have a permanent say on who will chair it

Loew wrote:
2. You said global. And global means global. So explain, how is the UK going to "project itself" on the other side of this planet all by itself? Let´s say in some conflict deep in the Pacific ocean?


Yep I certainly did, if you look at the capbilty set the UK iis core design is based on expeditionary operations. When you look at the treaties that involve the UK they are global commitments

Loew wrote:
3. You didnt say 50%, you said 45% in your original post. And you were not talking about number of countries but rather about nuclear capability in your original post. Still a nice try to spin this your way, however I can accept that game anytime as you are wrong again. There are more nuclear armed countries than just two in the EU. Even Czechoslovakia was nuclear armed till 1989 btw.


Actual typo on my part was meant to write 50, and no I wasn’t spinning anything because I actully don’t know the number of weapons held when compared between nations, I have never bothered to look it up.

Interesting I didn’t know that about the Czech, were they there own weapons or USSR I imagine it would have been under USSR control and not physically Czechoslovakian own weapons systems?

Loew wrote:
And as for UK nuclear weapons programme, well originally I wrote a long paragraph here, but what is the point? Instead I will say, OK whatever, take back control and build your stockpile however you want. Good luck and we can talk in 10 years about how well it went.



Whatever, as I’m actully not interested in the nuclear weapons program of the UK
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:23 am

kaitak wrote:
At this stage, we have to concede that Britain is leaving the EU. Labour, even if it does take over, will not support a new referendum. Some want it, but Corbyn and the unions won't wear it. The most important focus now is to avoid a no deal scenario; that's entirely the responsiblity of the UK Parliament. No other organisation can stop it. There will be no EU movement on the backstop.

Well, it seems Labour and Corbyn will actually back a ref, with option to remain.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 82594?s=19
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:24 am

JJJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
Dear A101:

1. That is your perception which is irrelevant and also has nothing to do with my original statement.

2. You said global. And global means global. So explain, how is the UK going to "project itself" on the other side of this planet all by itself? Let´s say in some conflict deep in the Pacific ocean?
Side note: You are unable to even "project yourself" and leave the EU, yet you are talking about UK projecting itself around the globe? You do realize that your military is under control of the same people who are dealing with brexit?

3. You didnt say 50%, you said 45% in your original post. And you were not talking about number of countries but rather about nuclear capability in your original post. Still a nice try to spin this your way, however I can accept that game anytime as you are wrong again. There are more nuclear armed countries than just two in the EU. Even Czechoslovakia was nuclear armed till 1989 btw.

And as for UK nuclear weapons programme, well originally I wrote a long paragraph here, but what is the point? Instead I will say, OK whatever, take back control and build your stockpile however you want. Good luck and we can talk in 10 years about how well it went.


Seriously, what has the military got to do with Brexit?


Nothing, but the UK has hinted a few times about using it as a negotiation token.

Won't work though.



Exactly, and that is was my point. A101 makes it a thing, but it isn't, so we need to focus on the issue's at hand, not get distracted by the defense, because that is not the issue now.

Loew wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Seriously, what has the military got to do with Brexit?


Actually there are some military and possibly intelligence implications, but not exactly those A101 claims there are. After Brexit, UK won´t be participating in EDA for example. Same goes for CSDP and CFSP. UK is not participating in PESCO already but took part in CARD, which will be over too. Thre are also several military clausules in the Lisbon treaty which won´t be applicable to the UK anymore, such as mutual defence clause.


Sure, there are some issue's in this area, but nothing major and nothing the NATO structure doesn't solve. So it is not an issue now.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:45 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
kaitak wrote:
At this stage, we have to concede that Britain is leaving the EU. Labour, even if it does take over, will not support a new referendum. Some want it, but Corbyn and the unions won't wear it. The most important focus now is to avoid a no deal scenario; that's entirely the responsiblity of the UK Parliament. No other organisation can stop it. There will be no EU movement on the backstop.

Well, it seems Labour and Corbyn will actually back a ref, with option to remain.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 82594?s=19


Which is very good news, except for this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal

But there won't be a deal for them to vote on, so what do they do then.
 
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Loew
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:16 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
kaitak wrote:
At this stage, we have to concede that Britain is leaving the EU. Labour, even if it does take over, will not support a new referendum. Some want it, but Corbyn and the unions won't wear it. The most important focus now is to avoid a no deal scenario; that's entirely the responsiblity of the UK Parliament. No other organisation can stop it. There will be no EU movement on the backstop.

Well, it seems Labour and Corbyn will actually back a ref, with option to remain.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 82594?s=19


Which is very good news, except for this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal

But there won't be a deal for them to vote on, so what do they do then.


I suspect that all of EU countries are just about OK with the UK leaving by now. The option to remain in the EU is still on the table in theory, but after this whole brexit saga no one is realistically counting on it. Second best option is the WA, however I don´t see it standing a chance in that divided parliament. Boris is openly pushing for a no deal brexit and a GE second day after that. And all he has to do to get a no deal brexit is to simply wait. Second extension will expire on 31st of October and UK will cease being a member of the EU despite what UK parliament thinks. Then again Boris is a well known liar, so he could just ask for a third extension last minute, and should the EU not grant it, he will have a perfect scapegoat for everything that is going to happen.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:49 pm

The problem for UK is that many EU27 countries see problems that needs to be solved that UK until now has put veto on or delayed eternally.

When UK leaves these countries will not let uk influence these decisions any more. Mr Bolton who hates EU will not have UK to run EU policies in favour any more. i see mr Bolton become Italy best friend for a while.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:57 pm

BoJo thinks only until the next GE.
He bets the will have a majority if the vote is the week after Brexit so the damages can't really be felt.

If he succeed, he will swallow the WA, whatever the new name will be, to get a trade deal with the EU.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:07 pm

olle wrote:
The problem for UK is that many EU27 countries see problems that needs to be solved that UK until now has put veto on or delayed eternally.

When UK leaves these countries will not let uk influence these decisions any more. Mr Bolton who hates EU will not have UK to run EU policies in favour any more. i see mr Bolton become Italy best friend for a while.


And

Reinhardt wrote:

Which is very good news, except for this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal

But there won't be a deal for them to vote on, so what do they do then.


Well they won’t have to worry about UK influenceing decisions if the end up backing the WA just for the sake of not leaving without a deal, the UK wil have no voice i the commission. Worst of not worlds.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:21 am

A very interesting analysis of possible manoeuvre by the BJ camp.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/w ... -election/
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:49 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
kaitak wrote:
At this stage, we have to concede that Britain is leaving the EU. Labour, even if it does take over, will not support a new referendum. Some want it, but Corbyn and the unions won't wear it. The most important focus now is to avoid a no deal scenario; that's entirely the responsiblity of the UK Parliament. No other organisation can stop it. There will be no EU movement on the backstop.

Well, it seems Labour and Corbyn will actually back a ref, with option to remain.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 82594?s=19


It's actually a pretty clever power-grab by Corbyn. I think it could work with even a few Tories voting against the inevitable no-deal Brexit that Boris and his rich cronies want.

I've never voted Labour and I despise Corbyn and McDonnell, but I'd vote for them tomorrow if it was the only way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:05 am

scbriml wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
kaitak wrote:
At this stage, we have to concede that Britain is leaving the EU. Labour, even if it does take over, will not support a new referendum. Some want it, but Corbyn and the unions won't wear it. The most important focus now is to avoid a no deal scenario; that's entirely the responsiblity of the UK Parliament. No other organisation can stop it. There will be no EU movement on the backstop.

Well, it seems Labour and Corbyn will actually back a ref, with option to remain.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 82594?s=19


It's actually a pretty clever power-grab by Corbyn. I think it could work with even a few Tories voting against the inevitable no-deal Brexit that Boris and his rich cronies want.

I've never voted Labour and I despise Corbyn and McDonnell, but I'd vote for them tomorrow if it was the only way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.


Couldn't that mean that the LibDems have a great chance to become the happy 3rd party: Conservatives pushing for a hard Brexit to get the Brexit party votes, Labor with.... Corbyn, so where to go with your vote?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:29 am

It's all getting a bit silly on what should be the sensible side..

Jo Swinson, said she won't work with Corbyn because she says he cannot hope to win over the 15 or so Conservatives needed to support a caretaker govenment until an election (assuming a VONC goes through). Corbyn supporters are going mad calling Lib Dems 'Torys'. And are saying they don't understand how the Lib Dems could have gone into coalition with the Tories yet won't support Corbyn.

Various Conservative remainers are saying they will talk to Corbyn and will talk to the Lib Dems. Probably enough to get the numbers required.
A dozen or so Labour MPs say they want to respect the vote and will only vote for the WA deal. Which is already dead, from all sides.

Labour leadership say they'll talk to anyone, but at the same time Labour are actively campaigning against the Lib Dems since the Lib Dems are taking every seat and council in local elections away from Labour.

Greens say they'll talk with anyone, but made the fairly humerous mistake of saying a caretaker govenment should be all female and excluded a certain Labour front bencher from the list.



You can see Swinson's side of the argument. If Labour cannot get the support of enough Tories then the entire endevour is dead in the water. Will those Tories support Labour, even just to get No Deal off the table or can they just not take having to side with Corbyn, who really deep down we all know wants Brexit with a deal.

At the same time, if we can get no deal off the table with Corbyn heading a caretaker govenment with then an extention and vote on remain or leave with a specified deal, is that not better? Honestly no matter how much I hate Corbyn I think i'd take that option right now.

All a numbers game.

interested to see where it ends up. Hopefully not screwed up!
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:01 pm

scbriml wrote:
I've never voted Labour and I despise Corbyn and McDonnell, but I'd vote for them tomorrow if it was the only way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.

A question, how would a Corbyn government or even the current government stop a no-deal Brexit?
The EU has stated emphatically they there will be no renegotiation of the WA.
The UK Parliament has voted down the WA multiple times.

So when we say stop a no-deal Brexit, what is the specific definition here, withdraw Article 50, request another extension, have another referendum on the EU?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:12 pm

par13del wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I've never voted Labour and I despise Corbyn and McDonnell, but I'd vote for them tomorrow if it was the only way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.

A question, how would a Corbyn government or even the current government stop a no-deal Brexit?
The EU has stated emphatically they there will be no renegotiation of the WA.
The UK Parliament has voted down the WA multiple times.

So when we say stop a no-deal Brexit, what is the specific definition here, withdraw Article 50, request another extension, have another referendum on the EU?


Getting a bit of realism in UK politics?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:31 pm

A101 wrote:
A very interesting analysis of possible manoeuvre by the BJ camp.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/w ... -election/

That's still pursuing the delusion that the EU27 could be pressured or scared into throwing Ireland under the bus, which is just that: Delusional.

This is the hierarchy of pain as the EU27 see it:
• orderly Brexit with a WA: bad
• disorderly Brexit (no deal): worse
• removing the Backstop from the WA and thus throwing Ireland under the bus: unacceptable

It is simply pointless trying to use just worse to get the EU27 to go along with unacceptable.
That is simply not how the real world works.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:54 pm

par13del wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I've never voted Labour and I despise Corbyn and McDonnell, but I'd vote for them tomorrow if it was the only way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.

A question, how would a Corbyn government or even the current government stop a no-deal Brexit?
The EU has stated emphatically they there will be no renegotiation of the WA.
The UK Parliament has voted down the WA multiple times.

So when we say stop a no-deal Brexit, what is the specific definition here, withdraw Article 50, request another extension, have another referendum on the EU?


The only way is to win a vote of no confidence.

Then whoever is the govenment then, either Corbyn lead Labour,some sort of caretaker govenment until a GE or a coalition (i.e Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens) will have to decide which of the three things you mention they will do. I think the most likely is to request an extension to have another referendum where no deal is not an option. If it's Corbyn led then he will waste some time trying to negotiate his 'deal' because he wants to leave.

All of this is dependant upon getting enough Tories to vote against the Govenment and for something else. So far some have suggested they will...will be it enough though.

I'd love Art 50 to be withdrawn but it's not going to happen before a vote.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:17 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Getting a bit of realism in UK politics?

No, just wondering why this preventing a No-Deal Brexit is so convoluted by those who want to Remain, it seems pretty simple, unless they have a hidden agenda like everyone else.
Rather than plotting with Labour et all to bring down the government or prevent a No-Deal Brexit, all they have to do is get together and say they will vote for the WA, and since they already trashed the parliamentary process, the speaker can bring the bill back to the floor for the 4th time.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:20 pm

par13del wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I've never voted Labour and I despise Corbyn and McDonnell, but I'd vote for them tomorrow if it was the only way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.

A question, how would a Corbyn government or even the current government stop a no-deal Brexit?
The EU has stated emphatically they there will be no renegotiation of the WA.
The UK Parliament has voted down the WA multiple times.

So when we say stop a no-deal Brexit, what is the specific definition here, withdraw Article 50, request another extension, have another referendum on the EU?


Parliament has also voted against no-deal multiple times.

The "Corbyn plan" is apparently quite simple -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49359664
If he wins a no-confidence vote in the government, the Labour leader plans to delay Brexit, call a snap election and campaign for another referendum.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:32 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
The only way is to win a vote of no confidence.

Then whoever is the govenment then, either Corbyn lead Labour,some sort of caretaker govenment until a GE or a coalition (i.e Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens) will have to decide which of the three things you mention they will do. I think the most likely is to request an extension to have another referendum where no deal is not an option. If it's Corbyn led then he will waste some time trying to negotiate his 'deal' because he wants to leave.

All of this is dependant upon getting enough Tories to vote against the Govenment and for something else. So far some have suggested they will...will be it enough though.

I'd love Art 50 to be withdrawn but it's not going to happen before a vote.

So their thinking is that the EU will renegotiate the WA if there is a new government in the UK, so far the EU has been consistent across two governments, no renegotiation.

I think their chances are better if they get all the remain MP's together and convince them to vote for the WA, since they already trashed the parliamentary process, the speaker will bring the bill back to the floor for a 4th vote. This is of course dependent on them really wanting to Remain and not having some other agenda.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:36 pm

scbriml wrote:
Parliament has also voted against no-deal multiple times.

The "Corbyn plan" is apparently quite simple -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49359664
If he wins a no-confidence vote in the government, the Labour leader plans to delay Brexit, call a snap election and campaign for another referendum.

I don't think if they have another referendum the percentage of the winning vote (either way) will be any greater than what just happened, in which case, there will still be enough malcontents in the parliament to continue mucking up the works.
Only saving grace there would be if remain wins, the UK would be the biggest proponent of closer integration in the EU to effectively neuter the UK parliament.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:54 pm

par13del wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
The only way is to win a vote of no confidence.

Then whoever is the govenment then, either Corbyn lead Labour,some sort of caretaker govenment until a GE or a coalition (i.e Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens) will have to decide which of the three things you mention they will do. I think the most likely is to request an extension to have another referendum where no deal is not an option. If it's Corbyn led then he will waste some time trying to negotiate his 'deal' because he wants to leave.

All of this is dependant upon getting enough Tories to vote against the Govenment and for something else. So far some have suggested they will...will be it enough though.

I'd love Art 50 to be withdrawn but it's not going to happen before a vote.

So their thinking is that the EU will renegotiate the WA if there is a new government in the UK, so far the EU has been consistent across two governments, no renegotiation.

I think their chances are better if they get all the remain MP's together and convince them to vote for the WA, since they already trashed the parliamentary process, the speaker will bring the bill back to the floor for a 4th vote. This is of course dependent on them really wanting to Remain and not having some other agenda.


Corbyn says his red lines are different to May's so it would be a completely new agreement therefore the EU should discuss it. Good luck in anyone having the patience to go through that with the UK again.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:28 pm

Klaus wrote:
A101 wrote:
A very interesting analysis of possible manoeuvre by the BJ camp.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/w ... -election/

That's still pursuing the delusion that the EU27 could be pressured or scared into throwing Ireland under the bus, which is just that: Delusional.


It is still funny how some people think what size of majority the current UK government has behind it has any impact on the EUs negotiating position......

"I just want a GE with 70% of the vote because they want me to remove the backstop!".

"And.... ?"

Hilarious...

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:32 pm

scbriml wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
kaitak wrote:
At this stage, we have to concede that Britain is leaving the EU. Labour, even if it does take over, will not support a new referendum. Some want it, but Corbyn and the unions won't wear it. The most important focus now is to avoid a no deal scenario; that's entirely the responsiblity of the UK Parliament. No other organisation can stop it. There will be no EU movement on the backstop.

Well, it seems Labour and Corbyn will actually back a ref, with option to remain.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status ... 82594?s=19


It's actually a pretty clever power-grab by Corbyn. I think it could work with even a few Tories voting against the inevitable no-deal Brexit that Boris and his rich cronies want.

I've never voted Labour and I despise Corbyn and McDonnell, but I'd vote for them tomorrow if it was the only way of stopping a no-deal Brexit.


On the other hand there are people like Kate Hoey in Labour that I don't think would support anything like that.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:01 pm

I always wonder why people think a election would not be won by pro-Brexit forces again? When forced to vote, the Brits have preferred Unicorns over facts for 2 times now, why should they vote differently the third time?

Especially when one side can promise unicorns after the real Brexit ("if we just get a clear majority the EU will give in - they need us more than we need them...) while the other side has nothing except maybe another referendum. (We do not know what to do - Brexit is not wrong per se -...) Is this a convincing position or inspiring or even offering a vision of the future?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:33 pm

par13del wrote:

So when we say stop a no-deal Brexit, what is the specific definition here, withdraw Article 50, request another extension, have another referendum on the EU?


I have wondered the same thing and openly said it a few pages ago
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:49 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
A101 wrote:
A very interesting analysis of possible manoeuvre by the BJ camp.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/w ... -election/

That's still pursuing the delusion that the EU27 could be pressured or scared into throwing Ireland under the bus, which is just that: Delusional.


It is still funny how some people think what size of majority the current UK government has behind it has any impact on the EUs negotiating position......

"I just want a GE with 70% of the vote because they want me to remove the backstop!".

"And.... ?"

Hilarious...

Best regards
Thomas



That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.

One only has to look at Winston Churchill he won the war but lost the election, something I say will happen to BJ
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:51 pm

A101 wrote:
That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.

One only has to look at Winston Churchill he won the war but lost the election, something I say will happen to BJ

How can Boris "win" a war he himself has started against his own country and its future?

His pseudo "Churchill" suffers from an obvious lack of a real Hitler there (his absurd denigrations of the EU are no viable substitute because they crumble at the slightest contact with reality).
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:06 pm

A101 wrote:
That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.


Boris "Lies on a bus" Johnson? Boris "Kipper" Johnson? Boris "Zip Line" Johnson? They've put the clown in charge of the circus. :rotfl:

I hope you haven't scheduled another Brexit party for October 31st. :wink2:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:35 pm

Klaus wrote:
A101 wrote:
That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.

One only has to look at Winston Churchill he won the war but lost the election, something I say will happen to BJ

How can Boris "win" a war he himself has started against his own country and its future?

His pseudo "Churchill" suffers from an obvious lack of a real Hitler there (his absurd denigrations of the EU are no viable substitute because they crumble at the slightest contact with reality).


Your missing the point, Churchill had taken the country thru it’s most darkest days and years and he was the right man for the job and lost the next GE in 45, Johnson is doing the same he is putting certainty into the process so everyone knows where the UK stands. At the end of the day he is doing everything the government has asked look at the Brady amendment and the EU Withdrawl Act 2019. He doesn’t want to leave without a deal but knows there has to be a limit to the continuation of uncertainty over Brexit, if you can’t see that then there is no hope of any deal between the EU UK now or in the future and if that’s the way it has to be then it has to be.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:46 pm

scbriml wrote:
A101 wrote:
That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.


Boris "Lies on a bus" Johnson? Boris "Kipper" Johnson? Boris "Zip Line" Johnson? They've put the clown in charge of the circus. :rotfl:

I hope you haven't scheduled another Brexit party for October 31st. :wink2:



Say what you may over Boris, he may play the court jester but the man is no fool
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:26 pm

Klaus wrote:
How can Boris "win" a war he himself has started against his own country and its future?


Can you point to the moment where Boris Johnson started this war and what Influence he used and at what point do you believe the war started?
 
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Loew
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:09 am

A101 wrote:
That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.

One only has to look at Winston Churchill he won the war but lost the election, something I say will happen to BJ


It is true that Boris has a clear policy, his policy is to change sides and camps whenever it suits him.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:13 am

A101 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
A101 wrote:
That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.


Boris "Lies on a bus" Johnson? Boris "Kipper" Johnson? Boris "Zip Line" Johnson? They've put the clown in charge of the circus. :rotfl:

I hope you haven't scheduled another Brexit party for October 31st. :wink2:



Say what you may over Boris, he may play the court jester but the man is no fool


True, but he also never has had the public interest upfront in his mind.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
agill
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:15 am

A101 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
A101 wrote:
That’s where with all his faults BJ has a clear policy and will give certainty to the electorate on Brexit.


Boris "Lies on a bus" Johnson? Boris "Kipper" Johnson? Boris "Zip Line" Johnson? They've put the clown in charge of the circus. :rotfl:

I hope you haven't scheduled another Brexit party for October 31st. :wink2:



Say what you may over Boris, he may play the court jester but the man is no fool


No indeed no, John Oliver had a pretty good thing about it a couple of weeks ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXyO_MC9g3k
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:21 am

A101 wrote:
but the man is no fool


Ad clearly visible by the heist he and his henchmen are currently on.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:57 pm

Klaus wrote:
His pseudo "Churchill" suffers from an obvious lack of a real Hitler there (his absurd denigrations of the EU are no viable substitute because they crumble at the slightest contact with reality).


No need for Hitler. Letting Napoleon wannabe Macron blabber about his dellusions of "federal" EU is sufficient enough.
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:41 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
Klaus wrote:
His pseudo "Churchill" suffers from an obvious lack of a real Hitler there (his absurd denigrations of the EU are no viable substitute because they crumble at the slightest contact with reality).


No need for Hitler. Letting Napoleon wannabe Macron blabber about his dellusions of "federal" EU is sufficient enough.

And where are you living?
 
Dogman
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:47 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:

No need for Hitler. Letting Napoleon wannabe Macron blabber about his dellusions of "federal" EU is sufficient enough.


What's so bad about it?
 
ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:27 pm

The USA policy as to Brexit is somewhat split.

President Trump supports Brexit, but he has no clue about what it means beyond limiting access to other EU and non-EU citizens (especially of the Muslim faith or Africa) and maybe UK sovereignty as to certain laws. Many Republicans also support that view for similar reasons.

Almost all of the Democratic Party opposition, who holds a majority of the lower House of Representatives but not the upper, the Senate and as House majority leader/Speaker of the House Pelosi has clearly stated that Brexit must not create a hard border between NI and ROI. Even some Republicans in Congress support the Democrats view. If a hard border, it will make it extremely difficult to negotiate trade deals with the UK. In large part the Democrat Party position is due to the GFA negotiated in party by then US Democrat President Clinton, the relative long term peace and prosperity it brought to both NI and ROI, and a significant preference of political support by USA voters, many of Irish and Catholic decent, of the ROI.
 
kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:04 pm

ltbewr wrote:
The USA policy as to Brexit is somewhat split.

President Trump supports Brexit, but he has no clue about what it means beyond limiting access to other EU and non-EU citizens (especially of the Muslim faith or Africa) and maybe UK sovereignty as to certain laws. Many Republicans also support that view for similar reasons.

Almost all of the Democratic Party opposition, who holds a majority of the lower House of Representatives but not the upper, the Senate and as House majority leader/Speaker of the House Pelosi has clearly stated that Brexit must not create a hard border between NI and ROI. Even some Republicans in Congress support the Democrats view. If a hard border, it will make it extremely difficult to negotiate trade deals with the UK. In large part the Democrat Party position is due to the GFA negotiated in party by then US Democrat President Clinton, the relative long term peace and prosperity it brought to both NI and ROI, and a significant preference of political support by USA voters, many of Irish and Catholic decent, of the ROI.


I think that if you have one proposal (frankly, any) which Donald Trump, that should be, ipso facto, a reason for backing the alternate. I think there is probably more to Trump's position than just racism. You'll recall last week that the ever charming John Bolton remarked that he and Donald Trump were pro-Brexit even before was a Brexit. I see in the Republican stance a more "Bannonite" intent - to split the EU and then be far more powerful in dealing with individual states than one large "superstate". The Brexiteers have walked into this trap beautifully, as they'll see when they "negotiate" the trade deal that the US gives them. You can see that the current US position is all about creating division, whatever the issue used to create it is - immigration is clearly a key one. The more divisions you can create, the harder it is for Europe to act coherently.

I am very relieved that there are adults in the room and that the Dems are acting to protect the GFA, in which they had a key hand. It's the right stance. No one should even be thinking of risking the GFA or peace in NI, but that currently seems to be a key part of BoJo's approach, backed of course by the DUP, which was never in favour of it.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:26 pm

The Republiocans and special Mr Bolton hates EU and together with Brexiteer has played a game to destroy it.

I think that a strategic game for the future that the democtratic west shall be an example balancing the new undemoctartic Russia and China.

USA nor EU will be able to handle China and Russia by themself, but by working together and making countries in Afrika, Asia and South Amerika work with us we can make thing going in the right direction.

For me Repuclican / Trump together with Extreme right, Brexit, Le pen make countries like Putins Russia and China gaining more influance then they need to.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:44 am

Strange that since the EU was founded various US presidents and congressional leaders have not done more to sabotage the EU but as soon as Donald Trump shows up the entire USA is trying to kill off the EU. As long as Germany and France remain in the EU it will survive, they are essentially the founding members of the EU, the UK has never been fully behind it, especially the people since the elites put them in deeper without even a vote. So if anyone in the USA or elsewhere thinks that by supporting Brexit they will destroy the EU they are delusional, I suspect such tal is PR versus and real belief.

As for the Democrats versus Republicans supporting the GFA, in the USA it is the Irish community pulling the strings, who the representatives are in their area is secondary, it could be either party.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:13 am

par13del wrote:
As long as Germany and France remain in the EU it will survive, they are essentially the founding members of the EU


As a side-note, I think this is widely believed (certainly often stated) but is not actually the case. It's my understanding that the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg are the true founding members as they clubbed together to form the Benelux grouping for their common benefit. It was when France and Germany were invited to participate in something to do with guaranteeing coal supplies, if i recall correctly, that the idea of pan-European cooperation took hold.
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tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:08 am

Well, Boris Government seems to think a no deal Brexit is a bad idea too...

Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine, a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard border with Ireland and rising costs in social care in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to an unprecedented leak of government documents that lay bare the gaps in contingency planning.....


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -j6ntwvhll

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 6: Encore un moment Monsieur le Bourreau

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:31 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Well, Boris Government seems to think a no deal Brexit is a bad idea too...

Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine, a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard border with Ireland and rising costs in social care in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to an unprecedented leak of government documents that lay bare the gaps in contingency planning.....


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -j6ntwvhll

Best regards
Thomas


Well I cant read the whole article, but the highlighted section you quoted doesn't actually say it is a bad idea. just exactly what we have thought will happen in the short term. nothing actually new here.

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