Americanil96
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Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:37 pm

as the mid terms told us, Texas almost a elected a democrat in the senate in Beto O'Rourke but Cruz still manage to beat him, but only by a hair though. with a lot Californians moving to Texas due to the high taxes there, as well as more jobs in Texas, this got me thinking, will Texas ever become a blue state? what you guys think?




Sincerely, A Texan
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casinterest
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:54 pm

Maybe,

It depends on how quickly the Urban -Rural gap closes. Some people think by 2028 Texas could be blue, but truthfully it will take decades or some serious missteps in the legislature.

Florida, Georgia and NC will all go blue before Texas does.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:58 pm

Short answer: Who knows?

Long answer: It is quite possible due to the growth it is experiencing and the influx of a large number of people from other, often "more blue" states. ANd those people are heading mostly to economically strong cities. As it's cities grow and the urban population of Texas increases, and that will greatly impact the dynamics. Most "blue" states have large rural areas, that make up the majority of the state land area, that tend to lean red, while the few urban areas with dense population and good economies end up pushing the politics to what they need which is often more "blue".

But who knows? :spin:

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
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FreequentFlier
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:31 pm

Americanil96 wrote:
as the mid terms told us, Texas almost a elected a democrat in the senate in Beto O'Rourke but Cruz still manage to beat him, but only by a hair though. with a lot Californians moving to Texas due to the high taxes there, as well as more jobs in Texas, this got me thinking, will Texas ever become a blue state? what you guys think?




Sincerely, A Texan


Perhaps, politics is very fluid and states shift. The South used to be the most reliably Democratic part of the country. And the upper Midwest voted for Donald Trump.

But perhaps the most interesting data point I’ve seen in quite some time is that, assuming you believe in exit polls, Cruz actually did worse amongst native Texans than he did with those moving to Texas.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... cruz%3famp

“While Cruz won reelection by roughly 2 1/2 percentage points, O'Rourke beat Cruz by 3 percentage points among those born in Texas.

Fifty-one percent of respondents in the exit poll who said they were from Texas originally voted for O'Rourke, while 48 percent of native Texans said they went for Cruz.

In contrast, 57 percent of respondents who said they moved to the state voted for Cruz, compared to 42 percent who voted for O'Rourke.”

The people moving to Texas at this point are largely conservative, perhaps given the state’s more recent reputation as a red state with lots of jobs and affordable housing.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:42 pm

Republicans gloat about how Texas is growing. What they fail to take note is where those people are coming from. While it is true that CA, NY, WA, and others are expensive states, they may find TX more appealing and with that they bring their views to the state. Eventually, the urban areas will be able to outvote the rural areas. The 2018 elections showed that if urban and suburban areas continue their trend towards Democrats, TX's legislature will flip shortly (at least the House...the Senate may take longer).

Considering that Trump's approval ratings are rather weak in TX (compared to its other Southern neighbors), if a good candidate comes forward, there is a good chance TX can flip blue (or at the very least be a tossup).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:44 pm

Using Cruz and Beto as the litmus test for Texas will end up leading you astray. Look at the governor's race for instance. Abbot won by a 10% margin.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:02 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Look at the governor's race for instance. Abbot won by a 10% margin.

By that logic, MA and MD are getting redder. A popular incumbent doesn't necessarily mean a state is or is not trending in one direction.

Look at the House where Democrats picked up 11 seats, the Senate where Democrats netted 1 (though they picked up 2), and at the federal level where they picked up 2 more seats in the House delegation (still at a large disadvantage, but the fact that these seats were R+7 and R+5 says a lot; the only other seat with a lower R rating was the one held by Will Hurd (TX-23, R+1) and he kept the seat by less than 1,000 votes...all other seats are uphill with at least R+9).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:46 pm

Americanil96 wrote:
as the mid terms told us, Texas almost a elected a democrat in the senate in Beto O'Rourke but Cruz still manage to beat him, but only by a hair though. with a lot Californians moving to Texas due to the high taxes there, as well as more jobs in Texas, this got me thinking, will Texas ever become a blue state? what you guys think?

Sincerely, A Texan


Strange logic.
So, people moving out of a Blue state to "flee taxes" thereby making the Red state more Blue with more taxes??
Sorry, but you cannot flee your own desires. If you want to have a lot of public goodies you gotta pay for it. Usually with taxes.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:01 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Look at the governor's race for instance. Abbot won by a 10% margin.

By that logic, MA and MD are getting redder. A popular incumbent doesn't necessarily mean a state is or is not trending in one direction.

Look at the House where Democrats picked up 11 seats, the Senate where Democrats netted 1 (though they picked up 2), and at the federal level where they picked up 2 more seats in the House delegation (still at a large disadvantage, but the fact that these seats were R+7 and R+5 says a lot; the only other seat with a lower R rating was the one held by Will Hurd (TX-23, R+1) and he kept the seat by less than 1,000 votes...all other seats are uphill with at least R+9).


In a referendum election where the president historically always loses seats. In a house that was shedding republicans over time from the big gains in 2010. yes yes yes.. we can talk about all the different finer points but do they point to an overall shift in the state? no, not really.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:42 pm

"For approximately 99 years, from after Reconstruction until the 1990s, the Democratic Party dominated Texas politics."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Texas

For anyone to think Texas can't flip is ignoring reality. The key thing is that no one can predict anything like that at the moment. Time will tell.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:32 pm

Tugger wrote:
"For approximately 99 years, from after Reconstruction until the 1990s, the Democratic Party dominated Texas politics."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Texas

For anyone to think Texas can't flip is ignoring reality. The key thing is that no one can predict anything like that at the moment. Time will tell.

Tugg


"but the parties switched!"

:rotfl:
 
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Tugger
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:37 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"For approximately 99 years, from after Reconstruction until the 1990s, the Democratic Party dominated Texas politics."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Texas

For anyone to think Texas can't flip is ignoring reality. The key thing is that no one can predict anything like that at the moment. Time will tell.

Tugg


"but the parties switched!"

:rotfl:

Not quite sure what you are responding to (also not taking offense or anything silly like that, so no worries), so I am just curious.

To me I am mostly interested in the process that occurs to push things like this.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:40 pm

Tugger wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"For approximately 99 years, from after Reconstruction until the 1990s, the Democratic Party dominated Texas politics."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Texas

For anyone to think Texas can't flip is ignoring reality. The key thing is that no one can predict anything like that at the moment. Time will tell.

Tugg


"but the parties switched!"

:rotfl:

Not quite sure what you are responding to (also not taking offense or anything silly like that, so no worries), so I am just curious.

To me I am mostly interested in the process that occurs to push things like this.

Tugg


I was mostly teasing. A lot of people say somewhere in history the parties had a fundamental shift in their policies and that what was Lincoln's republican party became the ideals of the modern day democratic party. Or something like that. I don't really subscribe to that so I'm sure someone here will correct me and point out my ineptitude at life. As they are want to do about anyone with a differing viewpoint.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:50 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Using Cruz and Beto as the litmus test for Texas will end up leading you astray. Look at the governor's race for instance. Abbot won by a 10% margin.

...to a candidate with zero name recognition and zero money. Not sure what that tells you...

trpmb6 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:

"but the parties switched!"

:rotfl:

Not quite sure what you are responding to (also not taking offense or anything silly like that, so no worries), so I am just curious.

To me I am mostly interested in the process that occurs to push things like this.

Tugg


I was mostly teasing. A lot of people say somewhere in history the parties had a fundamental shift in their policies and that what was Lincoln's republican party became the ideals of the modern day democratic party. Or something like that. I don't really subscribe to that so I'm sure someone here will correct me and point out my ineptitude at life. As they are want to do about anyone with a differing viewpoint.

Nah Lincoln just really loved Confederate statues :rotfl:
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Airstud
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:58 am

DFW had the delectably overcomplicated Adtranz people mover system disassembled, and for that reason I have expelled Texas from the union.
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jetwet1
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:36 am

Combine people moving there with a president that goes out of his way to "attack" Hispanics, yeah I can see Texas going to the Democrats soon
 
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DL717
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:49 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
Republicans gloat about how Texas is growing. What they fail to take note is where those people are coming from. While it is true that CA, NY, WA, and others are expensive states, they may find TX more appealing and with that they bring their views to the state. Eventually, the urban areas will be able to outvote the rural areas. The 2018 elections showed that if urban and suburban areas continue their trend towards Democrats, TX's legislature will flip shortly (at least the House...the Senate may take longer).

Considering that Trump's approval ratings are rather weak in TX (compared to its other Southern neighbors), if a good candidate comes forward, there is a good chance TX can flip blue (or at the very least be a tossup).


They’re leaving to escape those liberal Mecca’s.
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Ken777
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:53 am

The Texas (and other Southern) Democrats took a hit when LBJ signed the Civil Rights Law. LBJ actually said that he was handing the South tot he GOP as he was signing the law. We're around 70 years now and some, like Mississippi, Georgia, etc will need another half century or so.

Texas, I believe, is somewhat different, mainly because the Hispanic population has grown dramatically over the years and there are now many who cannot stand Trump and his GOP supporters in the House and Senate.

Texas has traditionally worked to keep blacks from voting. The Poll Tax was a favorite and other approaches are also being killed one at a time. If Hispanic and African American folks take the effort to get on the rolls and vote then Texas will flip, and stay Blue for a long time.
 
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stl07
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:00 am

DL717 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Republicans gloat about how Texas is growing. What they fail to take note is where those people are coming from. While it is true that CA, NY, WA, and others are expensive states, they may find TX more appealing and with that they bring their views to the state. Eventually, the urban areas will be able to outvote the rural areas. The 2018 elections showed that if urban and suburban areas continue their trend towards Democrats, TX's legislature will flip shortly (at least the House...the Senate may take longer).

Considering that Trump's approval ratings are rather weak in TX (compared to its other Southern neighbors), if a good candidate comes forward, there is a good chance TX can flip blue (or at the very least be a tossup).


They’re leaving to escape those liberal Mecca’s.

But that doesn't mean they are going to be changing political parties just because they are leaving to flee high property costs. I'm unsure why the media keeps spewing that California's high property value is due to them being donkeys and not because they have the largest cities in the country and a Mediterranean climate, not to mention coastal views, you know, things that normally jack up the cost of living
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:04 am

As weird as this sounds, I hope Texas doesn't become blue, nor stay red. In my mind, a purple state provides the best balance for the political spectrum, both in numbers and ideals.

I grew up in Texas and love it with all my heart. I welcome new comers and don't mind their political ideals but the data shows they are coming from states with high costs of living and I hope it doesn't make Texas' rise.

After a year of living in beautiful, but expensive, Colorado; I hope to return to Houston someday.
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:42 am

Americanil96 wrote:
Will Texas ever become a blue state? what you guys think?
Sincerely, A Texan


I think not. I don't think God would allow that. We cling to our Bibles and our guns too much here.
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johnboy
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:32 am

FreequentFlier wrote:

The people moving to Texas at this point are largely conservative, perhaps given the state’s more recent reputation as a red state with lots of jobs and affordable housing.


I find that hard to believe. It’s the more liberal areas that are more expensive :arrow: priced-out liberal-leaning folks leaving for cheaper environs.
 
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johnboy
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:35 am

Airstud wrote:
DFW had the delectably overcomplicated Adtranz people mover system disassembled, and for that reason I have expelled Texas from the union.


This could be the best reply on this site EVER.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:37 pm

FreequentFlier wrote:
The people moving to Texas at this point are largely conservative, perhaps given the state’s more recent reputation as a red state with lots of jobs and affordable housing.

And yet they're settling in cities instead of the rural areas... :scratchchin:
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
KentB27
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:02 am

It absolutely could. There are already several major cities in Texas that lean democratic.

Remember, California reliably voted Republican until the 1980s. I live in Kansas, one of the reddest states around, and we recently elected a democratic, LGBT, Native American congresswoman. The first ever in America's history. Of all of the states to do that first, I would have never thought it would have been Kansas. Politics can and will shift over time.
 
c933103
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:23 am

It have been and it will be, the problem is just time and what ideology will it represent. The meaning of "blue" a few decades ago is different from what "blue" mean now , and it will also be different a few decades into the future
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Will Texas ever become a blue state?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:29 pm

c933103 wrote:
It have been and it will be, the problem is just time and what ideology will it represent. The meaning of "blue" a few decades ago is different from what "blue" mean now , and it will also be different a few decades into the future

BINGO! The many blue states in the once Solid South were conservative states. It so happened that they found their allegiance with Republicans (who were once the progressives) and are now red. But changing demographics are moderating the views in certain states and could tilt the scales.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."

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