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trpmb6
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Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:02 pm

With Joe Biden finally stepping in, it appears the Democratic field is almost assuredly set for the next campaign season. I found this NPR piece to align fairly well with my current thoughts on where the field stands. https://www.npr.org/2019/04/26/71721112 ... comes-next

Some additional thoughts, some unrelated to that piece, some based in part on it.

Biden and Sanders both face the age challenge. While Sanders is older, Biden seems to struggle slightly more from a social media standpoint. His campaign seems to be running a late 80's early 90's style campaign at this point. He's going to struggle in grass roots fundraising where Sanders/O'Rourke/Buttigieg seem to be more successful. But that's not necessarily a bad thing for Biden either, as it seems this is leaving the big donors to Biden.. and Harris (Warren has sworn off big donor fundraising which at this point will almost certainly starve her campaign of cash given that she will struggle to raise cash in the crowded grass roots realm - more on this later).

O'Rourke seems to have already fallen from the lime light with his area of the field being dominated by Buttigieg and Warren. There's really only space for two in this arena, and until Buttigieg jumped in he was doing well. Now it seems it's Buttigieg and Warren - Warren being the stronger debater and having name recognition. Buttigieg has the charisma, but I don't think has the political clout to move further - where he would have done well is in the rust belt - and with Biden entering, that is a reach now.

Sanders has peaked out on his support. I don't believe it's possible for Sanders to gain any more traction at this point - he's well known, his policies are set, by now everyone has decided whether they support him or not. An editorial note - Why do democrats continue to allow him to label himself as an independent, and then enter their primaries? Its rather baffling to me. Perhaps it doesn't matter much, but he is going to have success in states that have caucuses.

Harris is betting on an early primary win in california due to it being her home state and has been campaigning fairly heavily in Texas. Both carry a lot of electoral votes early in the primary and can certainly solidify her position in the race if she is successful there. As the NPR piece notes South Carolina (first state with a significant African American electorate) is the next most important state for her. If Harris does well in those three states, it will be her, Biden and Sanders left in the race by my estimation. What hurts Harris is her tough stances as a prosecutor. But against Biden it's not much of a difference. Biden helped author many of the tough mandatory minimum laws - the 80's and 90's war on drugs laws - that some (Trump included) are trying to change. Some (Vox has a piece https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... arceration) have tried to explain that he has "repented" for his past. I don't buy that personally, but that's for those voting in the primaries to decide.

At this point in the campaign it seems the senators (current and former) all have the upper hand. The field is crowded, much like the Republican field was for the 2016 election cycle - which if past history can be an indicator - we shouldn't just write any one candidate off. It is going to be very interesting to see who can be most successful at uniting each faction of the democrat party and equally interesting what dominates the policies and party platform.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:04 pm

The main thing here is that the field will probably not narrow down until well into April. A lot of candidates are willing to lose the early primaries if it means they can rack up delegates in their home state. And because of the proportional allocation, it means they have incentive to keep their campaigns running.

The other thing: the Sanders wing of the party thinks it has the primary in the bag because Sanders is a close second or leading the polls in some states. The proportional allocation means he won't get the entire bulk. On top of that, there's no guarantee that as other candidates drop out they'd support Sanders. And many Democrats are willing to support him IF he becomes the nominee, but are otherwise reluctant. You can bet that he won't stand a chance in the South. And any attempts to downplay the South as irrelevant (because it does not elect Democrats) will backfire the way it did in 2016 when Clinton swept the area.
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trpmb6
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:15 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
The main thing here is that the field will probably not narrow down until well into April. A lot of candidates are willing to lose the early primaries if it means they can rack up delegates in their home state. And because of the proportional allocation, it means they have incentive to keep their campaigns running.

The other thing: the Sanders wing of the party thinks it has the primary in the bag because Sanders is a close second or leading the polls in some states. The proportional allocation means he won't get the entire bulk. On top of that, there's no guarantee that as other candidates drop out they'd support Sanders. And many Democrats are willing to support him IF he becomes the nominee, but are otherwise reluctant. You can bet that he won't stand a chance in the South. And any attempts to downplay the South as irrelevant (because it does not elect Democrats) will backfire the way it did in 2016 when Clinton swept the area.


Completely agree. Like I said, I think Sanders' support (outside the general election) is a fixed number now. Sure, he probably loses a small amount to the Warren/O'Rourke/Buttigieg crowd, but as you say, I think those three (or at least one of those three) will remain in the race long enough to not inflate Sanders' numbers any further - and if all three were to even drop out earlier, there's no guarantee they'd flock towards Sanders anyways. Particularly when they've likely already decided that, while they like some of his proposals, they're gravitating towards the other three on a identity politics / young blood type of decision. You've got other candidates touting proposals Sanders supports, they're just as likely to pick up the stray votes.

Also... something I forgot to mention in my original post. Why on earth is Warren paying some of her campaign staffers millions in salary??? That's a sure way to run out of cash fast right?
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:29 pm

I have been disappointed with them so far. Barring Biden, They have been too quick to jump down the left wing activism rabbit hole because they see it as gaining traction on social media echo chambers like twitter. Will they only accept a woman and a minority without compromise, or will they accept white males if they are someone that might actually bring a win. Is the Bernie or bust brigade going to go back to trump again when he doesn't get past the DNC nominations again?
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trpmb6
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:48 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
because they see it as gaining traction on social media echo chambers like twitter.


Someone mentioned the other day when we were talking about Twitter and it's affect on public news and consumption that something like 90% of twitter posts are generated by 10% of the twitter users. And demographically speaking, most of said users are in the younger age groups or are tied to news media in some form. So it really does become an echo chamber of people retweeting their own opinions around.

I have no source for that of course (nor do I know where this person came up with or got this info), perhaps some data exists, but it seems believable. I'll try and find some data and share it if I can.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:07 pm

Biden doesn't need any grassroots campaign or a ton of fundraising. He is the former VP and has been in Washington for almost half a century. Like Trump, Biden is the outlier in that the rational members in the Democratic party will back him and the fringe will be split among the rest, just look what they are proposing, tearing down border walls, allowing minors, non citizens and imprisoned terrorists to vote, a government run health care system, slave reparations, 70 to 90 percent tax brackets, the green new deal, etc. If Biden somehow blows it, or if the current or future investigations coming reveal he was in on crimes the Obama administration might have committed, don't think Hillary won't come in last minute to take his place, assuming she isn't indicted herself.
Last edited by afcjets on Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
winginit
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:12 pm

It's important to point out that this far out from the election essentially nothing matters - not fundraising numbers, not polls - nothing. Serious Oppo research is just getting started and the big donor dollars haven't yet found a home.

For context, we are 557 days from the 2020 Presidential Election, and the below is where things stood this far out for other elections:

2008 Dem: Clinton led by 9.7 points
2008 GOP: Giuliani led by 12.9 points
2012 GOP: Romney Led by 7.9 points
2016 Dem: Clinton led by 56.6 points
2016 GOP: Bush led by 3 points

einsteinboricua wrote:
The main thing here is that the field will probably not narrow down until well into April.


I'll bet, with the exception of those who don't make the debate stage, nothing will narrow down until after the first debates, which are late June.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:14 pm

Some pundits are saying that the men are getting most of the coverage. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are both in the race but we rarely hear anything reported on them. It is mostly reporting around Mayor Pete and Biden and Bernie and sometimes Beto.

It is way too early to do this. We are over a year and a half out. I think the American people are exhausted from the 24/7 news cycle.
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:34 pm

Biden: The Other White Meat

GF
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:52 pm

On the one hand, Biden has the most experience and is almost certainly the most qualified of all the candidates. On the other, he's "another old white guy" and a lot of Democrats want something else. Problem is most of those qualifying as "something else" have some exploitable flaws in their platform or background. Some are too far to the left to carry swing states that would be needed in the general election. Some have checkered pasts (Biden for example has that whole touchy-feely scandal recently). It's going to be a real mud-wrestling match during the debates and primaries but for whomever emerges as the front runner and gets the nomination, everyone in the party had better get behind them and not do that Bernie or bust crap that happened last time or it will be Trump 2.0. It's way too early to make an accurate call on how it will end up, but if forced to make a prediction now I'd say Biden and he'll pick a woman as his running mate (probably Harris).
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:11 pm

ER757 wrote:
On the one hand, Biden has the most experience and is almost certainly the most qualified of all the candidates. On the other, he's "another old white guy" and a lot of Democrats want something else. Problem is most of those qualifying as "something else" have some exploitable flaws in their platform or background. Some are too far to the left to carry swing states that would be needed in the general election. Some have checkered pasts (Biden for example has that whole touchy-feely scandal recently). It's going to be a real mud-wrestling match during the debates and primaries but for whomever emerges as the front runner and gets the nomination, everyone in the party had better get behind them and not do that Bernie or bust crap that happened last time or it will be Trump 2.0. It's way too early to make an accurate call on how it will end up, but if forced to make a prediction now I'd say Biden and he'll pick a woman as his running mate (probably Harris).



Good analysis. I agree that Biden would likely pick a female running mate. Harris seems a good compliment and she will have a strong showing in some states that Biden will have to fight hard in to win. They could come to some agreement depending on developments to have her bow out for instance and join forces. The south is going to play a key role in all this I think. More than it normally does. Hillary solidified her lead by sweeping many of the southern states. Harris should do well there.

The main sticking point with Harris and Biden (especially if they team up) is their tough stances on drugs. Harris has an out, at least, saying she was a prosecutor and had to follow the law (though you can argue that perhaps she could have taken a more lenient interpretation of the law). Biden on the other hand has to own up to the fact that he authored 4 key pieces of legislation in the 80's and 90's in the war on drugs era.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:15 pm

I really don't understand why after an election that was won and lost on the moderate, the strategy for most of these candidates here seems to be to swing even further left.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:43 pm

cranberrysaus wrote:
I really don't understand why after an election that was won and lost on the moderate, the strategy for most of these candidates here seems to be to swing even further left.


You win primaries by appealing to the base. You win general elections by taking what won you the primary and making it look appealing to moderates/independents. Definitely a tricky formula - and obviously doesn't always hold - as I don't believe Trump really did much to appeal to independents - rather it was the lack of appeal of Hillary amongst that group I believe to have worked for Trump. I suspect it will be easier than many think for someone to appeal to the left's base and then tweak their message to grab independents. It'll have to be a very delicate messaging machine - something that will help Biden given his lengthy tenure in the public eye. But that lengthy tenure may also damage him in an era where many seem to be skeptical of the washington elite outside the beltway.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:20 pm

Biden has hair plugs older than most Democrats.


gf
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:42 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Biden has hair plugs older than most Democrats.


gf

As does Trump. So it would match up well in an election.

Tugg
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:43 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Biden has hair plugs older than most Democrats.


gf


Something that caught me off guard was that Bernie has been pulling a pension from when he was a Mayor longer than I have been alive.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:14 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Biden has hair plugs older than most Democrats.


gf


Something that caught me off guard was that Bernie has been pulling a pension from when he was a Mayor longer than I have been alive.

It wouldn't surprise me if Bernie doesn't count the voices in his head as Dependants.

A part of Bernie's "field set" are his meds which either he has not been taking as prescribed or his doctors just can't get the type of drugs or dosage right. Is there anyone that isn't under psychiatric care or should be that are in his small band of whack jobs?
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:17 pm

stratclub wrote:
Is there anyone that isn't under psychiatric care or should be that are in his small band of whack jobs?

Did you ever figure out what you consider "right media"? Or "neutral" or "center media"?

Tugg
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Thu May 02, 2019 12:57 pm

Well, like the proverbial clown car, another candidate emerges.

Senator Bennet of Colorado has emerged as the most recent candidate to announce. I guess he wanted to steal Biden's thunder by not letting him be the last to enter? Just kidding.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... eda037f23a
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Thu May 02, 2019 2:16 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Well, like the proverbial clown car, another candidate emerges.

Senator Bennet of Colorado has emerged as the most recent candidate to announce. I guess he wanted to steal Biden's thunder by not letting him be the last to enter? Just kidding.

We have two more possible contenders: Gov Bullock of MT, and Stacey Abrams of GA (she passed on the Senate race...bad move on her part).

Granted, since 2016 we've known that Bennet was gearing up for a run but he formalized it. The question is: who is his target audience?

And the bigger question: will candidates drop out before Super Tuesday if they have poor showing in the polls, fundraisers, and early primary states? IA and NH are not indicators of how the primaries will end up, but if you're consistently polling behind during the early primaries and into Super Tuesday, odds are your state is not gonna save you.
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Thu May 02, 2019 3:26 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Biden has hair plugs older than most Democrats.


gf


This is my thinking too. He’ll be 80 years of age by the time he gets to the office. Where is he running? And another one - Bernie Sanders - isn’t much younger.

The big problem for this party (which is also a country’s huge problem) is that Democratic Party since early 90s has essentially been hijacked by a few groups - Biden, Clintons charming couple, John Kerry. Nearly 3 decades. And - there isn’t anyone younger to continue their course. All youth is far left wing there lately.

To me - these people did not live up to one of their primary responsibilities - select and grow next generation of leaders. They got too busy with all sorts of shady dealings. And they should be publicly kicked out of the party for that, let alone being elected to run.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Thu May 02, 2019 3:37 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Well, like the proverbial clown car, another candidate emerges.

Senator Bennet of Colorado has emerged as the most recent candidate to announce. I guess he wanted to steal Biden's thunder by not letting him be the last to enter? Just kidding.

We have two more possible contenders: Gov Bullock of MT, and Stacey Abrams of GA (she passed on the Senate race...bad move on her part).

Granted, since 2016 we've known that Bennet was gearing up for a run but he formalized it. The question is: who is his target audience?

And the bigger question: will candidates drop out before Super Tuesday if they have poor showing in the polls, fundraisers, and early primary states? IA and NH are not indicators of how the primaries will end up, but if you're consistently polling behind during the early primaries and into Super Tuesday, odds are your state is not gonna save you.


Bullock, bullock who. is sadly what most people think. Not to denigrate what he may or may not have accomplished in MT, he just isn't a household name. Stacey Abrams should run for the senate. She would probably win.

I don't believe many candidates will drop out before super tuesday unless they're trying to coalesce some support around a common cause with hopes of cabinet positions. I think I laid out a general idea of how super tuesday and the states immediately after in my earlier posts. There's enough juicy states spread out with varying politics and demographics to keep just about everyone going. For people low in the polls, they can garner enough delegates to (in their mind) feel they have some political clout on who they throw their support behind and become more relevant in a potential administration. I don't see anyone dropping out unless they're just flat broke.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 1:12 am

Lately, the Democrats have been working overtime to destroy any credibility they once had. It's like the Democrats are the gift that keeps on giving toward a landslide for The Mighty Orange One in 2020.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 2:25 am

My prediction is it will be a Trump/Biden race. Republicans will rally at the last second and Trump would have another term. The best thing Biden can do is pick a stellar running mate which would make it a better race, in which case Trump would drop Pence like a hot potato and probably pick Nikki Haley, who seems to be getting groomed for a presidential race herself and at face value would be a good bridge for democrats. Mark my words.

Biden is the only person the dems have that is a superstar in their field. I personally like Tulsi but I dont think she will make it past the primary. And Beto would have a much better chance of even being on the ballot in the primary if he didnt lose the Texas senate race to Cruz.

Either way 2020 is going to suck. It Will be a loooooooooong time before we see another Obama/McCain race where you really couldnt go wrong with either candidate, IMO.
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winginit
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 4:29 pm

stratclub wrote:
Lately, the Democrats have been working overtime to destroy any credibility they once had. It's like the Democrats are the gift that keeps on giving toward a landslide for The Mighty Orange One in 2020.


While they're pretty meaningless this far out, just about every single 2020 poll disagrees with you. In fact, can you point to a single poll that has Trump beating a Democratic candidate in 2020?
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 6:11 pm

winginit wrote:
stratclub wrote:
Lately, the Democrats have been working overtime to destroy any credibility they once had. It's like the Democrats are the gift that keeps on giving toward a landslide for The Mighty Orange One in 2020.


While they're pretty meaningless this far out, just about every single 2020 poll disagrees with you. In fact, can you point to a single poll that has Trump beating a Democratic candidate in 2020?


Can you find a single poll from the 2016 campaign that had Trump winning?

TWA772LR wrote:
My prediction is it will be a Trump/Biden race. Republicans will rally at the last second and Trump would have another term. The best thing Biden can do is pick a stellar running mate which would make it a better race, in which case Trump would drop Pence like a hot potato and probably pick Nikki Haley, who seems to be getting groomed for a presidential race herself and at face value would be a good bridge for democrats. Mark my words.


Agreed. I am quite certain this is exactly the case. The Trump campaign is just waiting to see how the field gets set, but I guarantee that Pence probably wants out and it will be a 100% coordinated rollout of Pence stepping out of the lime light in a changing of the guard type situation with Haley taking the torch as a grooming effort for 2024. Bookmark this post as proof of my time travelling abilities.
 
winginit
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 6:18 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
winginit wrote:
stratclub wrote:
Lately, the Democrats have been working overtime to destroy any credibility they once had. It's like the Democrats are the gift that keeps on giving toward a landslide for The Mighty Orange One in 2020.


While they're pretty meaningless this far out, just about every single 2020 poll disagrees with you. In fact, can you point to a single poll that has Trump beating a Democratic candidate in 2020?


Can you find a single poll from the 2016 campaign that had Trump winning?


Yes
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 6:28 pm

winginit wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
winginit wrote:

While they're pretty meaningless this far out, just about every single 2020 poll disagrees with you. In fact, can you point to a single poll that has Trump beating a Democratic candidate in 2020?


Can you find a single poll from the 2016 campaign that had Trump winning?


Yes


I actually thought of the IBD/TIPP poll as I wrote that post. Technically they didn't "nail" it. Trump didn't win the popular vote. So their poll was technically off.

Anyways, that's kind of a semantic. In regards to your original question:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... _election/
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 6:40 pm

stratclub wrote:
Lately, the Democrats have been working overtime to destroy any credibility they once had. It's like the Democrats are the gift that keeps on giving toward a landslide for The Mighty Orange One in 2020.


Ahh...let see, back in 2015 people are saying Hillary will win in a landslide also.

On a side note, Dems only need to flip PA (20), MI (16), and one more state (IA? AZ?). Trump is WAY down in PA right now, and he barely won MI last time around. Landslide? I don't think so. Of course, just throw out Beto and flip TX, then it's easily a game over for Trump.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 03, 2019 7:51 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Agreed. I am quite certain this is exactly the case. The Trump campaign is just waiting to see how the field gets set, but I guarantee that Pence probably wants out and it will be a 100% coordinated rollout of Pence stepping out of the lime light in a changing of the guard type situation with Haley taking the torch as a grooming effort for 2024. Bookmark this post as proof of my time travelling abilities.

That must mean I'm Noatradamous!
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Magog
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 12:22 am

Dear God. If Nikki Haley becomes the first female President Hillary Clinton will have to be put on suicide watch.
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 9:25 am

I wonder if the liberals who said Trump was too old will have a problem voting for Bernie or the toucher, I mean, Biden? Probably not.

Magog wrote:
Dear God. If Nikki Haley becomes the first female President Hillary Clinton will have to be put on suicide watch.


It might be Ivanka Trump :stirthepot:
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 1:04 pm

Biden doesn't have a great record and he is more gaffe-prone than nearly anyone else on the planet. That said he is a very honorable and smart gentleman and I'm sure he will do well in the "anyone but Bernie" contest for a few months. That will be at Buttegieg's expense.

I can't see any of the establishment democrats doing well. Trump's election was a result of a tired and weary middle-class trying to kick the Washington Establishment where it hurt. Running a Washington Insider like Biden who cares more about bringing in money from wealthy donors than improving the situation of the middle class is no different than running Hillary (though with a bit less baggage) and, if it wasn't for Trump's tanking approval ratings, would likely yield the same result.

What's great about the campaigns so far is that lots of issues like dealing with Climate Change, Child Care and Criminal Justice Reform are finally getting some airtime/discussion.

777Jet wrote:
I wonder if the liberals who said Trump was too old will have a problem voting for Bernie or the toucher, I mean, Biden?


Which liberals said that Trump was too old?
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Magog
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 4:53 pm

I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation for why Hunter Biden received $50,000 per month from a Ukrainian energy company and stepped down last month, which just happened to be the same month his father announced his presidential campaign.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/us/p ... raine.html
 
winginit
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 5:06 pm

Magog wrote:
I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation for why Hunter Biden received $50,000 per month from a Ukrainian energy company and stepped down last month, which just happened to be the same month his father announced his presidential campaign.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/us/p ... raine.html


Wait... is Hunter Biden running for President? I was unaware...
 
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 5:23 pm

winginit wrote:
Magog wrote:
I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation for why Hunter Biden received $50,000 per month from a Ukrainian energy company and stepped down last month, which just happened to be the same month his father announced his presidential campaign.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/us/p ... raine.html


Wait... is Hunter Biden running for President? I was unaware...


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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 5:25 pm

dmg626 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Magog wrote:
I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation for why Hunter Biden received $50,000 per month from a Ukrainian energy company and stepped down last month, which just happened to be the same month his father announced his presidential campaign.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/us/p ... raine.html


Wait... is Hunter Biden running for President? I was unaware...


Families are off limits, unless it’s Trumps family

Sorry. I forgot that rule.
 
winginit
Posts: 2542
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 6:47 pm

Magog wrote:
dmg626 wrote:
winginit wrote:

Wait... is Hunter Biden running for President? I was unaware...


Families are off limits, unless it’s Trumps family

Sorry. I forgot that rule.


Families are off limits, unless nepotism brings them into the administration.
 
Magog
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 7:53 pm

winginit wrote:
Magog wrote:
dmg626 wrote:

Families are off limits, unless it’s Trumps family

Sorry. I forgot that rule.


Families are off limits, unless nepotism brings them into the administration.

Good point. Nobody said anything whatsoever about Ivanka and Donald Jr. until after the inauguration. I forgot about that.
 
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777Jet
Posts: 6972
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 9:13 pm

zkojq wrote:
Biden doesn't have a great record and he is more gaffe-prone than nearly anyone else on the planet. That said he is a very honorable and smart gentleman and I'm sure he will do well in the "anyone but Bernie" contest for a few months. That will be at Buttegieg's expense.

I can't see any of the establishment democrats doing well. Trump's election was a result of a tired and weary middle-class trying to kick the Washington Establishment where it hurt. Running a Washington Insider like Biden who cares more about bringing in money from wealthy donors than improving the situation of the middle class is no different than running Hillary (though with a bit less baggage) and, if it wasn't for Trump's tanking approval ratings, would likely yield the same result.

What's great about the campaigns so far is that lots of issues like dealing with Climate Change, Child Care and Criminal Justice Reform are finally getting some airtime/discussion.

777Jet wrote:
I wonder if the liberals who said Trump was too old will have a problem voting for Bernie or the toucher, I mean, Biden?


Which liberals said that Trump was too old?


A few of the regulars here back during the 2016 Republican primaries. Yet their crooked Hillary is only a year younger lol. No doubt the toucher and Bernie are young enough for them :lol:
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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777Jet
Posts: 6972
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Sat May 04, 2019 9:16 pm

dmg626 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Magog wrote:
I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation for why Hunter Biden received $50,000 per month from a Ukrainian energy company and stepped down last month, which just happened to be the same month his father announced his presidential campaign.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/us/p ... raine.html


Wait... is Hunter Biden running for President? I was unaware...


Families are off limits, unless it’s Trumps family


You mean the Clinton family.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
WIederling
Posts: 8461
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Democratic Field Set

Sun May 05, 2019 10:55 am

trpmb6 wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
because they see it as gaining traction on social media echo chambers like twitter.


Someone mentioned the other day when we were talking about Twitter and it's affect on public news and consumption that something like 90% of twitter posts are generated by 10% of the twitter users. And demographically speaking, most of said users are in the younger age groups or are tied to news media in some form. So it really does become an echo chamber of people retweeting their own opinions around.

I have no source for that of course (nor do I know where this person came up with or got this info), perhaps some data exists, but it seems believable. I'll try and find some data and share it if I can.


How many human twitter users sitting at a keyboard operate multiple accounts to appear as "many" ?
( i.e. fake users )
Murphy is an optimist
 
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zkojq
Posts: 3762
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 10, 2019 4:35 am

777Jet wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Biden doesn't have a great record and he is more gaffe-prone than nearly anyone else on the planet. That said he is a very honorable and smart gentleman and I'm sure he will do well in the "anyone but Bernie" contest for a few months. That will be at Buttegieg's expense.

I can't see any of the establishment democrats doing well. Trump's election was a result of a tired and weary middle-class trying to kick the Washington Establishment where it hurt. Running a Washington Insider like Biden who cares more about bringing in money from wealthy donors than improving the situation of the middle class is no different than running Hillary (though with a bit less baggage) and, if it wasn't for Trump's tanking approval ratings, would likely yield the same result.

What's great about the campaigns so far is that lots of issues like dealing with Climate Change, Child Care and Criminal Justice Reform are finally getting some airtime/discussion.

777Jet wrote:
I wonder if the liberals who said Trump was too old will have a problem voting for Bernie or the toucher, I mean, Biden?


Which liberals said that Trump was too old?


A few of the regulars here back during the 2016 Republican primaries. Yet their crooked Hillary is only a year younger lol. No doubt the toucher and Bernie are young enough for them :lol:


Let's see some links, please. Trump was (rightfully) criticised for a million different things here, but I certainly don't remember his age being one of them. His mental age, maybe, but not his actual age.
First to fly the 787-9
 
Magog
Posts: 850
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:54 am

Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 10, 2019 10:11 am

A top Sanders advisor embezzled from a union.

https://vtdigger.org/2019/05/09/top-san ... -2008/amp/
 
Magog
Posts: 850
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Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 10, 2019 4:38 pm

I'm thinking that the closest analogy for the 2020 Democrat primaries could be 2004. The field was ostensibly wide open. Howard Dean attracted early energy and attention, but ultimately voters coalesced around the more "electable" candidate (Kerry) because their overriding objective was to beat Bush.
 
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ER757
Posts: 3421
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 10, 2019 4:55 pm

Magog wrote:
I'm thinking that the closest analogy for the 2020 Democrat primaries could be 2004. The field was ostensibly wide open. Howard Dean attracted early energy and attention, but ultimately voters coalesced around the more "electable" candidate (Kerry) because their overriding objective was to beat Bush.

It was the "I had a scream" speech that contributed to Dean's decline in the polls - a shame really because I think he could have beaten Bush. Kerry was very weak - it's a mirror image of the 2012 campaign when Romney was the weak candidate the opposition party put up against a beatable incumbent (Obama). In both of those cases I voted for the eventual loser.
 
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trpmb6
Topic Author
Posts: 2607
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Democratic Field Set

Fri May 10, 2019 6:55 pm

ER757 wrote:
Magog wrote:
I'm thinking that the closest analogy for the 2020 Democrat primaries could be 2004. The field was ostensibly wide open. Howard Dean attracted early energy and attention, but ultimately voters coalesced around the more "electable" candidate (Kerry) because their overriding objective was to beat Bush.

It was the "I had a scream" speech that contributed to Dean's decline in the polls - a shame really because I think he could have beaten Bush. Kerry was very weak - it's a mirror image of the 2012 campaign when Romney was the weak candidate the opposition party put up against a beatable incumbent (Obama). In both of those cases I voted for the eventual loser.


It's often said that incumbents have an inherent advantage. I'm not really convinced that's true. At least in recent memory it seems the opposition party always plays the "safe" hand and ends up putting up someone that doesn't excite the base and the result is poor turnout.
 
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trpmb6
Topic Author
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Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Democratic Field Set

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:47 pm

CBS put out a mild hit piece on Biden, referencing some of his campaign ads from 1972 against then incumbent Senator Boggs. It mostly revolves around the use of Biden's youth and Boggs age as a theme for Biden's campaign. Pretty much the stuff you would expect from a "changing of the guard" type of campaign. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-a-you ... ainst-him/

But one quote particularly caught my eye and interest:

"Cale Boggs' generation dreamed of conquering polio. Joe Biden's generation dreams of conquering heroin," declared one almost full-page ad. "[Biden] understands what's happening today."


Joe Biden's generation did not do a great job of conquering heroin (and more broadly opioids)

Image

The line for "Heroin plus other synthetic narcotics" is largely driven by the increase usage of Fentanyl
 
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casinterest
Posts: 8800
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Democratic Field Set

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:26 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
CBS put out a mild hit piece on Biden, referencing some of his campaign ads from 1972 against then incumbent Senator Boggs. It mostly revolves around the use of Biden's youth and Boggs age as a theme for Biden's campaign. Pretty much the stuff you would expect from a "changing of the guard" type of campaign. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-a-you ... ainst-him/

But one quote particularly caught my eye and interest:

"Cale Boggs' generation dreamed of conquering polio. Joe Biden's generation dreams of conquering heroin," declared one almost full-page ad. "[Biden] understands what's happening today."


Joe Biden's generation did not do a great job of conquering heroin (and more broadly opioids)

Image

The line for "Heroin plus other synthetic narcotics" is largely driven by the increase usage of Fentanyl


To be fair, the real issue here is that people are getting led into it now.

https://www.drugabuse.gov/drugs-abuse/o ... ose-crisis
About 80 percent of people who use heroin first misused prescription opioids.


Their are a lot of doctors, pharmacists, and pharmaceutical companies behind the current rise.

Of course that doesn't let anyone in the current political arena off the hook, but it points out what changed. Especially as your graph shows things were relatively tame up until 2007.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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trpmb6
Topic Author
Posts: 2607
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Democratic Field Set

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:03 pm

casinterest wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
CBS put out a mild hit piece on Biden, referencing some of his campaign ads from 1972 against then incumbent Senator Boggs. It mostly revolves around the use of Biden's youth and Boggs age as a theme for Biden's campaign. Pretty much the stuff you would expect from a "changing of the guard" type of campaign. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-a-you ... ainst-him/

But one quote particularly caught my eye and interest:

"Cale Boggs' generation dreamed of conquering polio. Joe Biden's generation dreams of conquering heroin," declared one almost full-page ad. "[Biden] understands what's happening today."


Joe Biden's generation did not do a great job of conquering heroin (and more broadly opioids)

Image

The line for "Heroin plus other synthetic narcotics" is largely driven by the increase usage of Fentanyl


To be fair, the real issue here is that people are getting led into it now.

https://www.drugabuse.gov/drugs-abuse/o ... ose-crisis
About 80 percent of people who use heroin first misused prescription opioids.


Their are a lot of doctors, pharmacists, and pharmaceutical companies behind the current rise.

Of course that doesn't let anyone in the current political arena off the hook, but it points out what changed. Especially as your graph shows things were relatively tame up until 2007.


Quite right. And another NPR article I found was talking about how this ramp up has more to do with increasing in purity and introductions of synthetics to improve "the high". (Specifically Fentanyl as the graph shows) https://www.npr.org/2018/09/22/65069832 ... onentially

I just find it interesting that this has been a relatively known issue since the 70's and here we are having basically the same problem - only worse really.

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