LH707330 wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:atcsundevil wrote:This isn't a climate change debate, it's a discussion on whether possible climate change may impact aviation. If this turns into a non aviation debate over the existence of climate change, the thread will be locked, and users may be warned or banned for not staying on topic. Let's not forget that this is an aviation forum.
Sticking to that question, and the OP's line of inquiry...
It depends on how CO2 pricing is implemented in aviation. It's too big a sector to be ignored forever. If CO2 taxes increase fares by more than 10%, yes, there will be a demand inflection. One ton of jet fuel = 3.15 tons of CO2. Look at a prospective Canadian tax of CDN$ 32/ton of CO2 for 2022.
Doing some back-of-the-napkin math for a 10-hour A330 flight, that pencils out to $20/pax one-way with that number. As a rough-cut, you could say price per tonne is slightly higher than the additional price per pax on a 10-hour flight, so if the CO2 price goes up to $100/t, we'd be looking at a $75 surcharge based on the assumptions I listed. Adding this to a $1000 ticket will make a bit of a dent in the demand curve, which should help spur investment in CO2-neutral fuels, which currently suffer from a lack of scale when competing with fossil fuels.
Climate change is already impacting aviation in the forms of increased turbulence, heatwaves causing hot/high payload restrictions (or even the >48* C CRJ stop in PHX a few years ago), so it's in the best long-term interests of the industry to invest in fixing its contribution to the problem.
3.15 CO2/t fuel
$25 USD/t CO2
Speaking of PHX, we have had the mildest Spring in the 30 years I have lived here. The CRJ issue is an engineering constraint of the jet, nothing to do with Mother Nature. Current 737s/A320s do not have those problems. This is nonsense that you are going to “tax” me $20 or anything For that matter. It is a feel good tax, that you can already self select to pay via carbon credits etc.