KLDC10
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Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 6:43 pm

The governing, right-leaning Liberal/National coalition has won a surprise victory in Australia's Federal Election, held Saturday. Most polls had predicted a Labor Party victory, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison more or less fought the Liberal campaign himself. This is certainly his victory, and one which has been very hard won. Congratulations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48305001
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cpd
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 8:05 pm

I didn’t like any of the candidates for PM - but it was great to see Abbott gone. The LNP still has a few faceless men left in its ranks, but at least the leader of the backstabbing has been tossed out.

They’ll be a more united party from now on.

Either side wouldn’t have made a great difference however. The sky wasn’t going to fall down, despite the talk.

What will happen in the future is that no parties will campaign with any policies, they’ll just run negative campaigns and then once they get in will be the only time we find out what they will actually do.
 
Kilopond
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 8:46 pm

There are some exceptions to the rule, but in general the socialists are on a steep decline in „western“ countries. No matter whether they are disguised as „Labour“, „Socialdemokraterna“, „Democrats“ or whatever. The historical Hungarian lie speach might have contributed quite a bit to label them as liars.

Source-critical reception required: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%90sz%C3%B6d_speech
 
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Aesma
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 8:55 pm

They're in decline where they have been implementing center-right policies.
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cpd
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 9:02 pm

Aesma wrote:
They're in decline where they have been implementing center-right policies.


That’s true. The Labor party is a fairly centre-right party, certainly not left wing. Just offset by the LNP coalition becoming a religiously conservative right wing party instead of its traditional fiscal conservative pro business, small government/less regulation ways. The LNP has shown itself ready to embrace “big government” plans when they align with its ideas. A government shouldn’t prop up failing industries, no matter what they are.

The LNP is so far removed from its traditional values these days, it should rename itself to something else.

If it were a traditional fiscal Conservative party, I would probably align with it, but they’ve long since abandoned that.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 9:13 pm

cpd wrote:
I didn’t like any of the candidates for PM - but it was great to see Abbott gone. The LNP still has a few faceless men left in its ranks, but at least the leader of the backstabbing has been tossed out.

They’ll be a more united party from now on.

Either side wouldn’t have made a great difference however. The sky wasn’t going to fall down, despite the talk.

What will happen in the future is that no parties will campaign with any policies, they’ll just run negative campaigns and then once they get in will be the only time we find out what they will actually do.


I think you're right. The party will surely be forced to think twice before trying to oust Morrison over the next three years given that he has proven his ability to win against the odds and, as you point out, the man who bore the biggest grudge in the party no longer has a seat. It would be nice if Morrison can succeed in becoming the first Australian PM since John Howard to actually serve a full term in office. I have only followed the campaign semi-closely, but it seems to me that the guy pretty much carried his party and deserves their support.

I think that the Labor Party needs to define more clearly what it actually stands for. Take immigration policy for example. This ABC skit from nearly a year ago pretty much sums up the party's reluctance to pin their colours to the mast in what is a pretty important policy area for many Australians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ao6-eAdC37E
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Kiwirob
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 9:44 pm

Bob deaths didn’t give them the votes they needed, what a waste.
 
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cpd
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 10:29 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
cpd wrote:
I didn’t like any of the candidates for PM - but it was great to see Abbott gone. The LNP still has a few faceless men left in its ranks, but at least the leader of the backstabbing has been tossed out.

They’ll be a more united party from now on.

Either side wouldn’t have made a great difference however. The sky wasn’t going to fall down, despite the talk.

What will happen in the future is that no parties will campaign with any policies, they’ll just run negative campaigns and then once they get in will be the only time we find out what they will actually do.


I think you're right. The party will surely be forced to think twice before trying to oust Morrison over the next three years given that he has proven his ability to win against the odds and, as you point out, the man who bore the biggest grudge in the party no longer has a seat. It would be nice if Morrison can succeed in becoming the first Australian PM since John Howard to actually serve a full term in office. I have only followed the campaign semi-closely, but it seems to me that the guy pretty much carried his party and deserves their support.

I think that the Labor Party needs to define more clearly what it actually stands for. Take immigration policy for example. This ABC skit from nearly a year ago pretty much sums up the party's reluctance to pin their colours to the mast in what is a pretty important policy area for many Australians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ao6-eAdC37E


I’m not so sure it’s that important. Economic well-being is important. And not scaring debt-laden voters with multi-million dollar mortgages, expensive luxury SUVs and five credit cards...

I think it is those debt laden aspirational voters who are the key.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sat May 18, 2019 11:24 pm

cpd wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
cpd wrote:
I didn’t like any of the candidates for PM - but it was great to see Abbott gone. The LNP still has a few faceless men left in its ranks, but at least the leader of the backstabbing has been tossed out.

They’ll be a more united party from now on.

Either side wouldn’t have made a great difference however. The sky wasn’t going to fall down, despite the talk.

What will happen in the future is that no parties will campaign with any policies, they’ll just run negative campaigns and then once they get in will be the only time we find out what they will actually do.


I think you're right. The party will surely be forced to think twice before trying to oust Morrison over the next three years given that he has proven his ability to win against the odds and, as you point out, the man who bore the biggest grudge in the party no longer has a seat. It would be nice if Morrison can succeed in becoming the first Australian PM since John Howard to actually serve a full term in office. I have only followed the campaign semi-closely, but it seems to me that the guy pretty much carried his party and deserves their support.

I think that the Labor Party needs to define more clearly what it actually stands for. Take immigration policy for example. This ABC skit from nearly a year ago pretty much sums up the party's reluctance to pin their colours to the mast in what is a pretty important policy area for many Australians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ao6-eAdC37E


I’m not so sure it’s that important. Economic well-being is important. And not scaring debt-laden voters with multi-million dollar mortgages, expensive luxury SUVs and five credit cards...

I think it is those debt laden aspirational voters who are the key.


You are clearly far more engaged with the subject than I am. Thanks for the first-hand insight.

I can only speak to how the election is portrayed in the international press, where is has largely been framed in terms of immigration and climate change.

However, I think there’s an interesting parallel here with Elections in the United Kingdom. Here, the same issues of which you have spoken are those which drive voter engagement. People don’t necessarily vote on big ticket issues like climate change or even immigration (although in the UK immigration certainly looms large), and it’s ultimately about which party they think will improve their personal situation. Financially comfortable voters are reliable voters!
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 3:58 am

Yes. We've got a large amount of people who you could say are financially overstretched. They have this huge McMansion (with a big mortgage), one or two SUVs with a desirable badge and credit card debt. These families tend to have both parents working to service these debts - so they are really sensitive to anything that is going to hurt them financially, be it housing values or anything else that could have them unable to pay off those debts.

Climate change has been an issue for a long while, but a lot of people got fed up with politicians being slow to act and took their own action. Drive around the suburbs of any large Australian city and look at the roof of nearly every house, or every second one. They've all got about as many solar panels jammed on the roof as will fit. It's happening so quickly and on such a large scale that it is changing the energy market. And the next step is batteries. It's not the super wealthy doing this either, it's ordinary families.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 6:04 am

cpd wrote:
Climate change has been an issue for a long while, but a lot of people got fed up with politicians being slow to act and took their own action. Drive around the suburbs of any large Australian city and look at the roof of nearly every house, or every second one. They've all got about as many solar panels jammed on the roof as will fit. It's happening so quickly and on such a large scale that it is changing the energy market. And the next step is batteries. It's not the super wealthy doing this either, it's ordinary families.


Agreed, and I agree that it is the "silent Australians", "Howard's battlers", "forgotten people", the working middle class families, who have gone into solar in a big way. It is attractive as it combines pocket book issues (lower power bills) and environmental concerns.

I deliberately named Menzies' forgotten people in three different ways to point out that Liberal governments are most successful when they tap into the suburban working families. These demographics lean Labor, but when the Libs start talking about cost of living pressures for this group then they form government.
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seat64k
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 6:45 am

cpd wrote:
What will happen in the future is that no parties will campaign with any policies, they’ll just run negative campaigns and then once they get in will be the only time we find out what they will actually do.


This is, unfortunately, already happening. In the recent elections in South Africa, the main opposition pissed away a golden opportunity by spending an awful lot of time telling us how the incumbent failed, and need to be stopped, and very little about how they're going to be different. Meanwhile, the two most fringe parties talked about problems (perceived or not) that people actually care about, and reaped the rewards.

KLDC10 wrote:
I can only speak to how the election is portrayed in the international press, where is has largely been framed in terms of immigration and climate change.


Imagine if the press could not editorialise at all. If - as far as politics go - all they could do was publish full, unedited speeches/debates/Q&As. I think parties would spend a lot less time trying to look good in the press if they know there's no chance that half a sentence is going to get clipped somewhere and outrage-reported without any context.

cpd wrote:
Climate change has been an issue for a long while, but a lot of people got fed up with politicians being slow to act and took their own action. Drive around the suburbs of any large Australian city and look at the roof of nearly every house, or every second one. They've all got about as many solar panels jammed on the roof as will fit. It's happening so quickly and on such a large scale that it is changing the energy market. And the next step is batteries. It's not the super wealthy doing this either, it's ordinary families.


How do we know the driver here is climate change and not the cost of electricity (which I hear is very high)? While I don't doubt people's concern with climate change, I find it very difficult to believe that many people would be spending solar panel money if there weren't an economic incentive. Particularly if they're stretched financially already.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 6:48 am

cpd wrote:
Yes. We've got a large amount of people who you could say are financially overstretched. They have this huge McMansion (with a big mortgage), one or two SUVs with a desirable badge and credit card debt. These families tend to have both parents working to service these debts - so they are really sensitive to anything that is going to hurt them financially, be it housing values or anything else that could have them unable to pay off those debts.


What family doesn’t have both parents working? Only the very wealthy can get by on a single income.
 
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 6:53 am

Labor's proposals for Franking Credits & Negative Gearing would also have worked against them.

The Franking Credit changes would have resulted in a large amount of retirees being forced below the poverty line, and would have changed the plans of some who were looking to retire.

The changes to Negative Gearing would have pushed up rents as it would not be as financially attractive to own a rental property. Not unusual for people to own multiple investment properties in Australia, there is a massive industry that supports property investment.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 6:55 am

Kiwirob wrote:
cpd wrote:
Yes. We've got a large amount of people who you could say are financially overstretched. They have this huge McMansion (with a big mortgage), one or two SUVs with a desirable badge and credit card debt. These families tend to have both parents working to service these debts - so they are really sensitive to anything that is going to hurt them financially, be it housing values or anything else that could have them unable to pay off those debts.


What family doesn’t have both parents working? Only the very wealthy can get by on a single income.


The cost of child care is so high that for many low income families with two or more children it is cheaper for one parent (almost always the mother) to stay at home and earn no income rather than work and have their entire income go to child care costs. This is why grandparents now play a larger role in looking after the kids than for previous generations, although this is obviously not practical for everyone.
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Kiwirob
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 7:05 am

I don’t know any two parent single income families back in NZ or in Norway. At one point I had three children in childcare, we looked at my wife staying home but the financial burden was to high.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 10:58 am

Congratulations to Australians who are now getting a tax cut. Politicians are terrible with other people's money so they should have as little of it as possible. Any revenue cut for the government is a good thing.
 
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cpd
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 12:33 pm

aviationaware wrote:
Congratulations to Australians who are now getting a tax cut. Politicians are terrible with other people's money so they should have as little of it as possible. Any revenue cut for the government is a good thing.


Didn’t know about any tax cuts... How many tens of millions of dollars must you earn to qualify for it. :duck:

I suppose I should just vote for whoever will give me tax cuts.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 19, 2019 2:09 pm

cpd wrote:
What will happen in the future is that no parties will campaign with any policies, they’ll just run negative campaigns and then once they get in will be the only time we find out what they will actually do.


Over the last decade or so it's been really sad to see this US style of politics slowly make its way to Australasia and become more embeded.


cpd wrote:
Yes. We've got a large amount of people who you could say are financially overstretched. They have this huge McMansion (with a big mortgage), one or two SUVs with a desirable badge and credit card debt. These families tend to have both parents working to service these debts - so they are really sensitive to anything that is going to hurt them financially, be it housing values or anything else that could have them unable to pay off those debts.


I couldn't agree more on this. It's such a stupid conundrum; 1) moan about how expensive housing is 2) take out a 85% mortgage to buy a house 3) complain about any policy that would stop real estate prices rising perpetually because "a market downturn could put me underwater". And thus the bubble gets bigger and bigger.


cpd wrote:
Climate change has been an issue for a long while, but a lot of people got fed up with politicians being slow to act and took their own action. Drive around the suburbs of any large Australian city and look at the roof of nearly every house, or every second one. They've all got about as many solar panels jammed on the roof as will fit. It's happening so quickly and on such a large scale that it is changing the energy market. And the next step is batteries. It's not the super wealthy doing this either, it's ordinary families.


It's also to do with the Culture Wars. Supporting and subsidizing Adani's new coal exploits has far more to do with pissing off left wing voters than it has to do with job creation.

RyanairGuru wrote:
I deliberately named Menzies' forgotten people in three different ways to point out that Liberal governments are most successful when they tap into the suburban working families. These demographics lean Labor, but when the Libs start talking about cost of living pressures for this group then they form government.


A good point and I'm reminded how "scrapping the carbon tax" was supposedly going to reduce everyone's electricity bill by $550 a year. :liar:

melpax wrote:
The changes to Negative Gearing would have pushed up rents as it would not be as financially attractive to own a rental property. Not unusual for people to own multiple investment properties in Australia, there is a massive industry that supports property investment.

:redflag: Therefore more landlords exiting the market -> more real-estate on the market -> the market responds with prices going lower and more first home buyers being able to afford to enter the market. As CPD mentioned above however, lots of people have borrowed far to much to be able to "afford" any stagnation in real estate prices, so presumably they would vote accordingly.

Whilst it is great for the individual who can afford to do it (my family have made a huge amount from doing just that), at the end of the day it's just another policy that makes the middle class subsidise the wealthy.
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aerorobnz
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Thu May 23, 2019 10:54 am

The left-wing champagne socialists have insisted on a campaign of patronising, blaming and guilt tripping voters from the middle and lower class for raising their concerns which clash with their politics and globalist agenda. All the labour voters were so caught up in their little echo chamber within their entitled privileged university educated bubbles they failed to realise that normal people don't want to be told they are always wrong and being preached to and legislated against in order to control their lives. This is so obvious to anyone except them that people in the working class would vote to protect their livelihoods and put their country first ahead of faceless career politicians who want to use globalist climate agenda to make lots of money by manipulating the masses with alarmist fear-mongering in order boost their "green" economy and raise money from increased taxation which they need to pay for all their pipe dream policies and draconian anti-personal freedom big government principles. which are being used to control people, control speech and force people to follow the group-think mindset.

There is an appetite for change, but not at the expense of pragmatism. and loss of the tenets of western democracy and personal freedom/autonomy. Scott Morrison won because of this
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cpd
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 26, 2019 5:17 am

aerorobnz wrote:
The left-wing champagne socialists have insisted on a campaign of patronising, blaming and guilt tripping voters from the middle and lower class for raising their concerns which clash with their politics and globalist agenda. All the labour voters were so caught up in their little echo chamber within their entitled privileged university educated bubbles they failed to realise that normal people don't want to be told they are always wrong and being preached to and legislated against in order to control their lives. This is so obvious to anyone except them that people in the working class would vote to protect their livelihoods and put their country first ahead of faceless career politicians who want to use globalist climate agenda to make lots of money by manipulating the masses with alarmist fear-mongering in order boost their "green" economy and raise money from increased taxation which they need to pay for all their pipe dream policies and draconian anti-personal freedom big government principles. which are being used to control people, control speech and force people to follow the group-think mindset.

There is an appetite for change, but not at the expense of pragmatism. and loss of the tenets of western democracy and personal freedom/autonomy. Scott Morrison won because of this


You’ve totally misjudged the types. The champagne drinking university types are the ones found in the Liberal party, particularly in its youth wing. They live in an alternate world to the rest of us. I wonder how they’d go if they had to do a day of hard work in a coal mine, or some other similar job...

And where are these lower power costs the conservatives have promised us time and again? They’ve had enough terms in government to deliver, surely? They even scrapped the carbon tax, that was supposed to reduce power prices immediately.

Was that one of those non-core promises?

If it were up to me, politicians would be paid $40k per year, nothing more than that. I don’t particularly like any of them.
 
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Sun May 26, 2019 7:45 pm

seat64k wrote:

cpd wrote:
Climate change has been an issue for a long while, but a lot of people got fed up with politicians being slow to act and took their own action. Drive around the suburbs of any large Australian city and look at the roof of nearly every house, or every second one. They've all got about as many solar panels jammed on the roof as will fit. It's happening so quickly and on such a large scale that it is changing the energy market. And the next step is batteries. It's not the super wealthy doing this either, it's ordinary families.


How do we know the driver here is climate change and not the cost of electricity (which I hear is very high)? While I don't doubt people's concern with climate change, I find it very difficult to believe that many people would be spending solar panel money if there weren't an economic incentive. Particularly if they're stretched financially already.

I was in Australia throughout the election and just anecdotally, even young anti labour voters are keenly aware of climate change—they’ve watched the Great Barrier Reef die before their eyes.
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seat64k
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Re: Liberal/National Coalition wins Australian Federal Election

Mon May 27, 2019 11:06 am

MaverickM11 wrote:
seat64k wrote:

cpd wrote:
Climate change has been an issue for a long while, but a lot of people got fed up with politicians being slow to act and took their own action. Drive around the suburbs of any large Australian city and look at the roof of nearly every house, or every second one. They've all got about as many solar panels jammed on the roof as will fit. It's happening so quickly and on such a large scale that it is changing the energy market. And the next step is batteries. It's not the super wealthy doing this either, it's ordinary families.


How do we know the driver here is climate change and not the cost of electricity (which I hear is very high)? While I don't doubt people's concern with climate change, I find it very difficult to believe that many people would be spending solar panel money if there weren't an economic incentive. Particularly if they're stretched financially already.

I was in Australia throughout the election and just anecdotally, even young anti labour voters are keenly aware of climate change—they’ve watched the Great Barrier Reef die before their eyes.


I was referring to the solar panels on roofs, not how the young people vote. Given the cost of property (and the never-ending complaints about it), I don't expect there to be a lot of overlap between the young climate-motivated voters and home owners who can afford a solar installation.

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