uta999
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LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:47 pm

With the likely change of UK PM to Boris Johnson in a few weeks, is Heathrow expansion finally dead?

A new Prime Minister, local opposition and various Climate-Change terror groups mean any major new airport project in the UK are likely to stopped in their tracks. What now?
Options that should be considered are; a new Boris Island in the Thames Estuary, a second runway at both LGW and STN, or more likely, nothing at all.

Heathrow Airport should come up with a Plan B that does not include a third runway, yet. It urgently needs an enlarged T5, a new terminal and 100 stands built on the brown field site north of the A4. Perhaps leaving the area free for a third runway to be built sometime in the future. A phased expansion that won’t fail any Eco test madness.

LHR would operate far more efficiently if there were more available stands / taxiways / holding points, and a new terminal north of the field. This could allow T4 to close and be demolished, and T5 expansion to the west. T4 has always been an operational nightmare having to cross a busy active runway, thus reducing movements on the southern runway.
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SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:00 pm

....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......
 
Breathe
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:04 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......

I wouldn't call HS2 cheap!
 
uta999
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:05 pm

Are you kidding? It has taken ten years not to build build HS2 and around £100 billion for a line that gets as far as north Birmingham!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... me-admits/
Last edited by uta999 on Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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scbriml
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:08 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......


Please define 'relatively cheaply'. HS2 London to Birmingham is currently estimated at costing £27billion (not that I think it will ever be built).
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:11 pm

uta999 wrote:
Are you kidding? It has taken ten years not to build build HS2 and around £100 billion for a line that gets as far as north Birmingham!


HS2 is the Berlin Airport of GB. Whatever they decide for any of the London airports will most likely end up exactly the same. Extreme over Budget, severely delayed and with enough design issues to be labeled a failure before launch. In the political climate right now (state of the domestic politics, especially the department for transport) they better not even start a project. If the only thing Boris does is sack failing Grayling his Premiership was already a success.
 
steveinbc
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:13 pm

I thought that the current Government - of which he was a senior member - already approved the expansion. I think it would not be a priority of a new Conservative government either since Brexit delivery and uniting the party for the upcoming election.
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uta999
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:16 pm

steveinbc wrote:
I thought that the current Government - of which he was a senior member - already approved the expansion. I think it would not be a priority of a new Conservative government either since Brexit delivery and uniting the party for the upcoming election.


Boris Johnson is against any Heathrow expansion, and failed to turn up to vote. He was sent out of the country so he could avoid going against government policy over LHR.
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Breathe
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:17 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Are you kidding? It has taken ten years not to build build HS2 and around £100 billion for a line that gets as far as north Birmingham!


HS2 is the Berlin Airport of GB. Whatever they decide for any of the London airports will most likely end up exactly the same. Extreme over Budget, severely delayed and with enough design issues to be labeled a failure before launch. In the political climate right now (state of the domestic politics, especially the department for transport) they better not even start a project. If the only thing Boris does is sack failing Grayling his Premiership was already a success.

I wouldn't go as far as calling HS2 the Berlin Airport of the UK (yet!). I suspect that phase 1 to Birmingham and interconnecting with the existing WCML will probably be built, so much money as already been spent on that phase of the project. You can definitely put some question marks over phases 2A and 2B though.
 
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:21 pm

I had to Google HS2. Color me skeptical, but I just don't see that happening. FFS, build the third runway already!
 
chonetsao
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:25 pm

Boris Johnson will not touch Heathrow debate that soon. If he is elected, he needs to deal with Brexit. If it ends up with no-deal or a bad deal, UK may face another fresh general election. Even if the deal was good and no forced general election UK will still face the fixed general election time on 5th May 2022. So there will certainly be a new general election between 31st October 2019 and 5th May 2022. There is just no time to fight his Boris Island dream until he can win the support and be certain that he can survive as PM beyond 5th May 2022. As last few years British politics had shown that anything can happen in 2 years time.

Boris is smart, he should know which fight to pick on and what priority he should have. Since Heathrow expansion is largely privately funded, Boris would need the investments to bolster the economy.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:33 pm

Breathe wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Are you kidding? It has taken ten years not to build build HS2 and around £100 billion for a line that gets as far as north Birmingham!


HS2 is the Berlin Airport of GB. Whatever they decide for any of the London airports will most likely end up exactly the same. Extreme over Budget, severely delayed and with enough design issues to be labeled a failure before launch. In the political climate right now (state of the domestic politics, especially the department for transport) they better not even start a project. If the only thing Boris does is sack failing Grayling his Premiership was already a success.

I wouldn't go as far as calling HS2 the Berlin Airport of the UK (yet!). I suspect that phase 1 to Birmingham and interconnecting with the existing WCML will probably be built, so much money as already been spent on that phase of the project. You can definitely put some question marks over phases 2A and 2B though.


I agree with you. My post is a bit over-dramatizing the situation but it is definetely a very badly managed project. And as always the flow of money will stop as soon as the greater London Area is served. If the future for the UK economy gets takes hit by whatever decision is made in the UK-EU question, phases 2 will most likely be cancelled.
 
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mercure1
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:37 pm

Yes hopefully the atrocious plans are let to die.

Should be a pretty easy task on either on budgetary or environmental grounds to slow down things and eventually abandon them.
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SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:46 pm

Breathe wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......

I wouldn't call HS2 cheap!


Who mentioned anything about HS2?

If you knew anything about the EXISTING rail network, you would realise you could quite easily introduce new rail services in quick time from LHR-Milton Keynes-Coventry-BHX-Birmingham/ MAN-Manchester, using current un-wanted rail stock coming off-lease, and using the EXISTING rail infrastructure.

All you would need to do is electrify the short section of rail between two junctions in Acton in west London costing £10million or so, and you could have fast electric train services to Manchester very quickly and cheaply. HS2 not required.

You could also run HS1 services via north London and into LHR from Paris//Brussels/CDG/BRU is quick time too. HS2 not required.

We have had two massive problems to solve politically with UK transport infrastructure ion recent years. #1=Airport capacity in the south-east. #2=Rail development and HS2.

Its just a shame that our dumb and incompetent politicians haven't realised that #2 is the solution to #1.
Last edited by SelseyBill on Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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scbriml
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:48 pm

steveinbc wrote:
I think it would not be a priority of a new Conservative government either since Brexit delivery and uniting the party for the upcoming election.


Which upcoming election? The next General Election isn't scheduled until 2022. :confused:
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uta999
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:54 pm

...anyways, the topic in hand is aviation related, not rail or the election.
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SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:58 pm

Breathe wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Are you kidding? It has taken ten years not to build build HS2 and around £100 billion for a line that gets as far as north Birmingham!


HS2 is the Berlin Airport of GB. Whatever they decide for any of the London airports will most likely end up exactly the same. Extreme over Budget, severely delayed and with enough design issues to be labeled a failure before launch. In the political climate right now (state of the domestic politics, especially the department for transport) they better not even start a project. If the only thing Boris does is sack failing Grayling his Premiership was already a success.

I wouldn't go as far as calling HS2 the Berlin Airport of the UK (yet!). I suspect that phase 1 to Birmingham and interconnecting with the existing WCML will probably be built, so much money as already been spent on that phase of the project. You can definitely put some question marks over phases 2A and 2B though.


You don't need to wait for HS2 to deliver new fast rail services into LHR, you can use the existing infrastructure and do it literally tomorrow.

All you need to do is cancel the under-utilised 'Heathrow connect' rail service, and you can run trains direct to Birmingham and BHX via Greenford and the Chiltern Line, and run trains direct MK/ MAN/ Manchester and or Birmingham via Acton Wells, Wembley and the West Coast Main Line. They are running out of siding space to store perfectly serviceable trains that are coming off lease, they don't know what to do with them.
Last edited by SelseyBill on Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:03 pm

uta999 wrote:
...anyways, the topic in hand is aviation related, not rail or the election.


.........rail is; in my estimation; a perfectly valid topic for discussion if its development can potentially free up slot space at Heathrow for more inter-continental flights, and avoid the need to spend £25billion on a new runway etc.

Don't tell me you couldn't find 10 new direct world destinations to fly to from LHR if 10 daily slots were quickly made available, or how much the sale of those slots might raise for future terminal development there.
 
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:04 pm

I'd be very surprised if Boris has a firm position on this, he is more likely to take whatever position is popular at the time.
With a highly fractured Conservative party and the divisive Brexit still to execute, I would be amazed if he wants to revisit the 3rd runway and re-open that debate.
I haven't heard any of the candidates for Tory leadership mention the 3rd runway in their leadership manifestos.

BTW - Ealing council is saying that 69% of their residents back LHR expansion. Meanwhile in Hounslow a Feb 2019 residents’ survey revealed that 59% of residents supported a new runway – up from 44% in 2016.
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:05 pm

uta999 wrote:
...anyways, the topic in hand is aviation related, not rail or the election.


It's mainly a political discussion, the topic of which just happens to be an airport. I expect the thread to get moved to non-av soon.
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SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:10 pm

GCT64 wrote:
BTW - Ealing council is saying that 69% of their residents back LHR expansion. Meanwhile in Hounslow a Feb 2019 residents’ survey revealed that 59% of residents supported a new runway – up from 44% in 2016.


.....this has always been the case IMO; its only the Zac Goldsmiths of this world, and noisy liberals in West London, that aren't pragmatic enough to realise that a key piece of their prosperous future in west London is a buoyant LHR. Most people IMO want to create the most fuss they can to maximise the compensation they will be getting, and good luck to them with that.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

scbriml wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......


Please define 'relatively cheaply'. HS2 London to Birmingham is currently estimated at costing £27billion (not that I think it will ever be built).


Nobody named 'Selsey Bill' ever mentioned HS2.

I will define 'relatively cheaply'.

I can; (and have); proposed; (several times); different plans for rail development that would allow an hourly 380 seat train to operate from LHR to BHX and Birmingham via the Chiltern Line franchise, and an hourly 550 seat train to MAN and Manchester via Wembley and Milton Keynes using the LM franchise. None of these ideas would require any capital investment; (but could be improved upon with about £20million of investment). The required trains are currently sat rusting away in sidings or will shortly be. The only costs involved would be training/commissioning and operating cost.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:22 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Boris is smart, .


.....that right there is a whole new thread someplace..........
 
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:24 pm

It really speaks favorably to the appeal of LON business/tourism that LHR has been able to maintain its position as a (and previously "the") leading international gateway, in the face of such incompetence, seesawing positions, and lack of vision.
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uta999
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:34 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
scbriml wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......


Please define 'relatively cheaply'. HS2 London to Birmingham is currently estimated at costing £27billion (not that I think it will ever be built).


Nobody named 'Selsey Bill' ever mentioned HS2.

I will define 'relatively cheaply'.

I can; (and have); proposed; (several times); different plans for rail development that would allow an hourly 380 seat train to operate from LHR to BHX and Birmingham via the Chiltern Line franchise, and an hourly 550 seat train to MAN and Manchester via Wembley and Milton Keynes using the LM franchise. None of these ideas would require any capital investment; (but could be improved upon with about £20million of investment). The required trains are currently sat rusting away in sidings or will shortly be. The only costs involved would be training/commissioning and operating cost.


I agree with you about 'real' rail investment in this country being dire. The Heathrow Express should lose its 'franchise' as a complete waste of time. The Piccadilly Line tube carries 100 x the passengers and is over a century old. We cannot even electrify the current Victorian railway properly beyond London.

The reason for the topic was LHR with Boris taking the helm. What could Heathrow do if it falls at the first hurdle? A third runway at the moment looks unlikely.
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spinotter
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:54 pm

Breathe wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......

I wouldn't call HS2 cheap!


Because the UK missed the boat back in the 70's when France and Germany were building their HS networks. So now it costs more, but it will change the face of British travel. And why not eliminate most domestic flights when HS2 is in place?
 
findingnema
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:05 pm

spinotter wrote:
Breathe wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......

I wouldn't call HS2 cheap!


Because the UK missed the boat back in the 70's when France and Germany were building their HS networks. So now it costs more, but it will change the face of British travel. And why not eliminate most domestic flights when HS2 is in place?


Although you said “most” vast swathes of the U.K. will not be connected to HS2 and still require the option of slower rail or domestic flights. Admittedly I could see some domestic rotations from Heathrow being pruned with using larger, more densely-seated aircraft and with a natural downturn in domestic passenger numbers with a more competitive high speed rail.
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

This thread is very much a political topic, so it will be moved to Non Aviation in accordance with forum rules.

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seat64k
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:23 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
If you knew anything about the EXISTING rail network, you would realise you could quite easily introduce new rail services in quick time from LHR-Milton Keynes-Coventry-BHX-Birmingham/ MAN-Manchester, using current un-wanted rail stock coming off-lease, and using the EXISTING rail infrastructure.


That's all very nice, but I don't think the point of the 3rd runway is to provide more flights to Milton Keynes, Birmingham or Manchester.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:42 pm

Irrespective of whether the political support remains or not, the current scheme has material financial, technical and environmental impediments which make the scheme undeliverable.

As and when the political support is lost (as would invariably happen in the event of either a BoJo led tories or a Corbyn led labour) the scheme would not get to test these defects.

Either way, it is a dead duck for the foreseeable.
 
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:45 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
scbriml wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......


Please define 'relatively cheaply'. HS2 London to Birmingham is currently estimated at costing £27billion (not that I think it will ever be built).


Nobody named 'Selsey Bill' ever mentioned HS2.

I will define 'relatively cheaply'.

I can; (and have); proposed; (several times); different plans for rail development that would allow an hourly 380 seat train to operate from LHR to BHX and Birmingham via the Chiltern Line franchise, and an hourly 550 seat train to MAN and Manchester via Wembley and Milton Keynes using the LM franchise. None of these ideas would require any capital investment; (but could be improved upon with about £20million of investment). The required trains are currently sat rusting away in sidings or will shortly be. The only costs involved would be training/commissioning and operating cost.

And how does a Train line to BHX and MAN justify stopping flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA?

BHX isn't served ex-LHR anyway (although I agree, connecting it directly by Rail to LHR would be beneficial, rather than having to go via Euston/Paddington or Reading). MAN is a fair enough add as an alternative (depending on travel time), but Leeds and Scotland aren't helped at all by any of your proposed cheap alternatives - Glasgow and Edinburgh are both 5 hours plus from London by Train, so there's no time saving at all by serving them by Train. And Leeds is the wrong side of the Peninnes to be served by any either of the options you mentioned.

Incidentally, why aren't you suggesting pulling LHR-NCL flights, too, as the Edinburgh Trains pass through there on the way (out of Kings Cross, at least)?
 
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spinotter
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:47 pm

findingnema wrote:
spinotter wrote:
Breathe wrote:
I wouldn't call HS2 cheap!


Because the UK missed the boat back in the 70's when France and Germany were building their HS networks. So now it costs more, but it will change the face of British travel. And why not eliminate most domestic flights when HS2 is in place?


Although you said “most” vast swathes of the U.K. will not be connected to HS2 and still require the option of slower rail or domestic flights. Admittedly I could see some domestic rotations from Heathrow being pruned with using larger, more densely-seated aircraft and with a natural downturn in domestic passenger numbers with a more competitive high speed rail.


MAD-BCN air traffic fell by half. There are hardly any flights left on CDG/ORY-LYS. England is a small country. London-Birmingham in 49 minutes. Manchester in 1 hour 8 minutes. Why the UK does not intend to serve LHR in the first instance by high-speed rail is just how abysmally dumb they are.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:23 pm

Bhoy wrote:
....and how does a Train line to BHX and MAN justify stopping flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA? BHX isn't served ex-LHR anyway

........the OP was about Boris Johnson, and whether as PM he might re-light the debate on 3rd runway @ LHR versus a new airport down on the Medway. I responded with the general point that better development of rail services from LHR; (without the expense of HS2); could release capacity at LHR, (maybe 70 slots per day), by looking at converting MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/BRU/CDG (and NCL) flights to rail, releasing said capacity.

Bhoy wrote:
BHX isn't served ex-LHR anyway (although I agree, connecting it directly by Rail to LHR would be beneficial, rather than having to go via Euston/Paddington or Reading).

Yes, Birmingham/ BHX does not have direct rail links to LHR, but linking Britains 2nd largest conurbation to its #1 international Gateway with a direct rail link is a no brainer, and should be sought immediately IMO

Bhoy wrote:
MAN is a fair enough add as an alternative (depending on travel time),
A new train service as part of future LM operations could do LHR5-LHR123-non-stop-MK-non-stop-MAN-Manchester in very competitive time

Bhoy wrote:
LBA
You could easily run a rail service from Leeds to LHR with stops at Sheffield, EMA and LTN maybe in under 3 hours using bi-mode trains

Bhoy wrote:
EDI/GLA
both enjoy multiple flights to different London airports, so you could run trains to LHR for connecting passengers, other London Airports for quicker 'O&D' flights......

Bhoy wrote:
Incidentally, why aren't you suggesting pulling LHR-NCL flights, too, as the Edinburgh Trains pass through there on the way (out of Kings Cross, at least)?

I'm not pulling any flights. Im just suggesting it ought to be a long-term planning aim to consider replacing LHR-NCL with. a rail link. NCL is a bit trickier at the moment, because it doesn't have any London air service other than LHR, but; yes; like EDI/GLA, it should be a long-term aim to link Newcastle with LHR, IF there is no air space development at LHR
 
SelseyBill
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Re: LHR - PM Boris Johnson

Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:36 pm

spinotter wrote:
Breathe wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
....no need for Heathrow expansion IMO, careful and considered expansion of new rail links should be the method of increasing capacity at Heathrow, and this could be done relatively cheaply. All LHR flights to MAN/LBA/EDI/GLA/CDG/BRU could be converted to rail. Those six destinations alone would free up nearly 70 daily LHR slots.......

I wouldn't call HS2 cheap!


Because the UK missed the boat back in the 70's when France and Germany were building their HS networks. So now it costs more, but it will change the face of British travel. And why not eliminate most domestic flights when HS2 is in place?


Agree.

I believe one of the major planning considerations with HS2 should have been replacing or adding to domestic air service.

Without much planning effort 9 English airports; [BHX/ EMA/ LBA/ LGW/ LHR/ LPL/ MAN/ NCL/ SOU]; could have easily been incorporated into HS2 plans, (with a few others as well); and put a considerable dent in our carbon emission plans........

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Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos