caliboy93
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Reunification of Korea

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:56 pm

So when the day arrives that North and South Korea come together like Germany in 1989, what are some challenges the North Koreans may face when it comes to integration?
 
anrec80
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:39 am

caliboy93 wrote:
So when the day arrives that North and South Korea come together like Germany in 1989, what are some challenges the North Koreans may face when it comes to integration?


First, you need to understand if South Korea really needs this. This is +20 million of people, a mountainous area without any infrastructure. It needs a lot of everything - roads, investments into agriculture, lots of medical professionals, healthcare - all that needs to be built from scratch. Rural areas need to be developed. And - all those 20 million people need enough jobs to support themselves.

And - the most important - does South Korean elite even want this? These people will need representation, and they will move out and vote for their candidates. There will be some competition to South Korean conglomerates. South Korean artistic beaumonde does not need Northern competition. All those people are comfortably settled into their positions, and there will be drastic changes to their comfort. United Korea will obviously be a country much different from today's South Korea, and it's not granted that there will not be a Great Leader of some sort.

Even Russia with Crimea - Crimea is 1/10th of North Korea, was nowhere close to North Korea in its state, and yet Russians are investing 20-30 billion dollars to bring that up to date. NK probably will need half a trillion over a decade easily.

So does South Korea even want this? I would not assume so prematurely.
 
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Loran
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:06 am

*IF" a reunification happens, then I strongly assume the DPRK will join RoK's capitalistic system (although the DPRK intends a unification at eye level). The main challenge for DPRK's citizens will be dealing with a free society and capitalism in general. If your government takes care of everything for decades and suddenly you're on your own, then many people will struggle and feel "left behind" :faint:
Even in Germany, 30 years after the unification, there are still differences in the mindset, which is also reflected in election results.

Having visited the DPRK twice, I agree with anrec's view that the challenges of unifiying DPRK and RoK are significantly larger than in Germany. The infrastructure is a complete write-off, the economy is governed by state-run non-profitable and outdated factories. Many billions of dollars needed to overcome these challenges.

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Loran
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mad99
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:19 am

burring all those south Korean bodies after the nuke attack might be one
 
c933103
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Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:19 am

anrec80 wrote:
caliboy93 wrote:
So when the day arrives that North and South Korea come together like Germany in 1989, what are some challenges the North Koreans may face when it comes to integration?


First, you need to understand if South Korea really needs this. This is +20 million of people, a mountainous area without any infrastructure. It needs a lot of everything - roads, investments into agriculture, lots of medical professionals, healthcare - all that needs to be built from scratch. Rural areas need to be developed. And - all those 20 million people need enough jobs to support themselves.

And - the most important - does South Korean elite even want this? These people will need representation, and they will move out and vote for their candidates. There will be some competition to South Korean conglomerates. South Korean artistic beaumonde does not need Northern competition. All those people are comfortably settled into their positions, and there will be drastic changes to their comfort. United Korea will obviously be a country much different from today's South Korea, and it's not granted that there will not be a Great Leader of some sort.

Even Russia with Crimea - Crimea is 1/10th of North Korea, was nowhere close to North Korea in its state, and yet Russians are investing 20-30 billion dollars to bring that up to date. NK probably will need half a trillion over a decade easily.

So does South Korea even want this? I would not assume so prematurely.

Conservatives don't want it. Liberal people want it. The current Korean government is a Leftist one so they are wholeheartedly for unification, although their term will end in about a year's time. The current South Korean government have already drafted out how to help rebuild North Korea if reunification happen, and even before that they have already come up with many different kind of plans that are ready to implement to improve North Korea even when they are still separate - although those plans are mostly blocked by international sanction now and they will either need progress in the US-North Korea talk or exemption on the sanction from the UN to implement their plans.
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Braybuddy
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:57 pm

The biggest challenge for North Koreans will be changing their mindset: having to think for themselves and deal with a world where you can speak your mind and do pretty much what you want. They are so programmed that they just don't know how to deal with ordinary everyday situations. The kids will find it much easier as their minds aren't quite as wired as adults' minds: on a trip there a couple of years ago we noticed that adults would avoid eye-contact with us and seemed terrified of being seen to have any contact with foreigners. Kids were curious, and they'd look and stare at our group, often wide-eyed and open-mouthed. There's an excellent book "In Order to Live" by a young North Korean defector which gives a great insight into what ordinary life is like in the DPRK. When she eventually escaped and ended-up in South Korea she didn't know how to make small talk. You have to remember that not only are they not allowed criticise their leader, they also have to heap praise on him. So they would probably be completely thrown by someone openly criticising the regime and would be terrified of saying the wrong thing in response. She started watching the local soaps, as she had noticed a lot of conversations revolved around them. That helped her enormously. Years before that we ate in a North Korean restaurant in Cambodia and that was one of the most hilarious experiences ever: staff seemed to have been trained on etiquette videos from the 1950s and took there poise and interaction with us from that.

They really are clueless on how to deal with the real world. Changing that mindset will be an enormous challenge.
Last edited by Braybuddy on Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:01 pm

caliboy93 wrote:
So when the day arrives that North and South Korea come together like Germany in 1989, what are some challenges the North Koreans may face when it comes to integration?


Everything West-Germany has done times 10. Everything is worse in North Korea than compared to the DDR, except for the number of people, there are more North Koreans compared to South Koreans then there were, DDR-citizens compared to West Germany.

It will take a massive amount of effort and money to get North Korea back on its feet.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:30 pm

I'm not sure outright reunification is a good idea, if it could become a more normal country, with good relations with the south, it would probably be better.
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Dutchy
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:27 pm

Aesma wrote:
I'm not sure outright reunification is a good idea, if it could become a more normal country, with good relations with the south, it would probably be better.


Sure, and take a few decades to reunite. Best for all, but probably not going to happen like that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
anrec80
Posts: 1994
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Reunification of Korea

Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:29 pm

c933103 wrote:
Conservatives don't want it. Liberal people want it. The current Korean government is a Leftist one so they are wholeheartedly for unification, although their term will end in about a year's time. The current South Korean government have already drafted out how to help rebuild North Korea if reunification happen, and even before that they have already come up with many different kind of plans that are ready to implement to improve North Korea even when they are still separate - although those plans are mostly blocked by international sanction now and they will either need progress in the US-North Korea talk or exemption on the sanction from the UN to implement their plans.


Here is perhaps the biggest question. Everyone everywhere seems to believe that if this re-unification happens, the peninsula will turn into South Korea like state. Which is IMHO far from granted. Keep in mind - NK is not a small and weak state, far from such. They in isolation pulled out nuclear and ballistic missile programs. And managing to solve their problems nearly in isolation. And - at least some of their factories are in fact competitive - e.g. Rosatom buys plenty of equipment for their nuclear facilities in NK - it’s cheaper than Samsung one and just as good.

Pyongyang political elite and ruling group is certainly competent and strong. They certainly know what they are doing. Can we say the same about Seoul governing parties? Not sure - they are too dependent upon the USA. Can they give and win a fight against North in struggle for power? Not given at all.

Hence - there are strong chances that united Korea will have its capital in Pyongyang and the Great Leader, not be a liberal democratic state.
 
BN747
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Re: Reunification of Korea

Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:11 pm

If any lesson is to be learned, from the two Germany's, the two Vietnams,(the on going) two Chinas (Taipei vs Beijing)...it's this, when it does come, it will be the two Koreas' that make it happen.

BN747
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