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Loew
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EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:18 pm

Let´s imagine Brexit has happened. Which steps should EU take next? Where would you like to see the EU in say 10 years from now? What do you think the future holds for the EU? I´d love to hear your opinions :chat:

My opinion:

With the UK out of the picture, we will probably see more integration, probably in social, tax and defense policy. Social because, there are still massive differences between EU countries and regions and common tax policy well, because someoone has to pay for social policy. In taxes I can see a common corporate tax or common VAT. It will be very interesting to watch defense policy, especially if Trump manages to get second term. EU army probably won´t be created, but I expect a very close military cooperation, push for common technologies, as well as enlargement of EU battlegroups. I also expect eurozone enlargement and Schengen enlargement, yet I can´t see any balkan countries joining the EU in the next 10 years. In connection with Schengen, I think outer EU border protection would be moved to Frontex, and we are probably going to see Frontex border guards instead of national ones at the outer border.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:48 pm

I think you will get the EU of the inner circle and the outer circle. The inner circle will integrate more and more and will function as a country and the outer circle will consist of countries with various degree of integration.
The inner circle will consist of the Nordic countries, Benelux, Germany, Ireland (maybe), Austria, Poland (maybe), France (maybe) and the other circle of the remaining EU27, UK (will join it I think), Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and perhaps the Balkan countries. And a 3rd circle Ukraine (if Russia will leave them alone), Turkey (if Erdogan will be gone and the country will take another direction), Mediterranean countries in Azia and Africa.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:31 pm

Loew wrote:
Let´s imagine Brexit has happened. Which steps should EU take next? Where would you like to see the EU in say 10 years from now? What do you think the future holds for the EU? I´d love to hear your opinions :chat:

My opinion:

With the UK out of the picture, we will probably see more integration, probably in social, tax and defense policy. Social because, there are still massive differences between EU countries and regions and common tax policy well, because someoone has to pay for social policy. In taxes I can see a common corporate tax or common VAT. It will be very interesting to watch defense policy, especially if Trump manages to get second term. EU army probably won´t be created, but I expect a very close military cooperation, push for common technologies, as well as enlargement of EU battlegroups. I also expect eurozone enlargement and Schengen enlargement, yet I can´t see any balkan countries joining the EU in the next 10 years. In connection with Schengen, I think outer EU border protection would be moved to Frontex, and we are probably going to see Frontex border guards instead of national ones at the outer border.


There is no need for EU VAT harmonization. Just like there is none between California and Alabama. I think every EU state should be able to set their own personal and business tax rates, but the EU overall should levy a say 5% EU tax per citizen to pay for EU operating expenses.
A common defense policy with a "EU army" is long overdue IMO. Personally, I don't care if the general is French, German, Dutch, Italian, Greek, ...etc. As long has he/she is qualified to do the job.
Also, it is high time to cut down on the number of "'Presidents" in the EU. There is no need to have half a dozens top positions with the label "president" (Juncker, Tusk, etc.). This relates to the fact that the EU often seems to be a jobs program for national politicians looking for something to do.
 
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Loew
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I think you will get the EU of the inner circle and the outer circle. The inner circle will integrate more and more and will function as a country and the outer circle will consist of countries with various degree of integration.
The inner circle will consist of the Nordic countries, Benelux, Germany, Ireland (maybe), Austria, Poland (maybe), France (maybe) and the other circle of the remaining EU27, UK (will join it I think), Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and perhaps the Balkan countries. And a 3rd circle Ukraine (if Russia will leave them alone), Turkey (if Erdogan will be gone and the country will take another direction), Mediterranean countries in Azia and Africa.


Interesting, why do you include explicitly Poland to your inner circle, when in that region Slovakia is already much more integrated than Poland? Plus it is currently and has been the most eurooptimistic country in that region. Also what about the Baltics? Southern EU countries, Spain, Portugal, Italy? What about Romania or Bulgaria? I have to say, I don´t think this inner circle / outer circle ever is going to happen. You would basically make a lot of countries and hundreds of million people "2nd class" and that could easily destroy EU as it is. Plus, let´s be honest here NL could easily pick the 2nd circle too...
 
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Loew
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Loew wrote:
Let´s imagine Brexit has happened. Which steps should EU take next? Where would you like to see the EU in say 10 years from now? What do you think the future holds for the EU? I´d love to hear your opinions :chat:

My opinion:

With the UK out of the picture, we will probably see more integration, probably in social, tax and defense policy. Social because, there are still massive differences between EU countries and regions and common tax policy well, because someoone has to pay for social policy. In taxes I can see a common corporate tax or common VAT. It will be very interesting to watch defense policy, especially if Trump manages to get second term. EU army probably won´t be created, but I expect a very close military cooperation, push for common technologies, as well as enlargement of EU battlegroups. I also expect eurozone enlargement and Schengen enlargement, yet I can´t see any balkan countries joining the EU in the next 10 years. In connection with Schengen, I think outer EU border protection would be moved to Frontex, and we are probably going to see Frontex border guards instead of national ones at the outer border.


There is no need for EU VAT harmonization. Just like there is none between California and Alabama. I think every EU state should be able to set their own personal and business tax rates, but the EU overall should levy a say 5% EU tax per citizen to pay for EU operating expenses.
A common defense policy with a "EU army" is long overdue IMO. Personally, I don't care if the general is French, German, Dutch, Italian, Greek, ...etc. As long has he/she is qualified to do the job.
Also, it is high time to cut down on the number of "'Presidents" in the EU. There is no need to have half a dozens top positions with the label "president" (Juncker, Tusk, etc.). This relates to the fact that the EU often seems to be a jobs program for national politicians looking for something to do.


I can see tax harmonization, definitely at least in setting the minimum tax, for example VAT 10% flat. Corporate tax is a different story though, I can see full harmonization here. I agree that EU army is long overdue, this idea has been actually floated for the first time more than 50 years ago, yet I still can´t see it happening for purely nationalistic reasons. I think politicians are aware of this too, and will push for a defacto EU army, while keeping the "national brand".
 
Olddog
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:41 pm

You don't realize there are already circles? The Eurozone, the Schengen area etc.
We should see an other circle with countries willing to integrate more.
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:59 pm

Olddog wrote:
You don't realize there are already circles? The Eurozone, the Schengen area etc.
We should see an other circle with countries willing to integrate more.


That was the think I thinking about, there are several levels of integration already. So why not take it a step further and make it more formalized. Some countries want to integrate much further, look at the BeNeLux for instance. Why not cater for that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:10 pm

Loew wrote:
Interesting, why do you include explicitly Poland to your inner circle, when in that region Slovakia is already much more integrated than Poland? Plus it is currently and has been the most eurooptimistic country in that region. Also what about the Baltics? Southern EU countries, Spain, Portugal, Italy? What about Romania or Bulgaria? I have to say, I don´t think this inner circle / outer circle ever is going to happen. You would basically make a lot of countries and hundreds of million people "2nd class" and that could easily destroy EU as it is. Plus, let´s be honest here NL could easily pick the 2nd circle too...


It is not about making anyone 2nd tier citizens. It is about moving forward with countries whom are willing to and can do so. Slovakia is indeed an interesting case, didn't think about them, the Baltics would be included in the Nordic countries (perhaps officially not though). Kind of similar economies, not too much spread, kind of similar attitudes towards government etc. etc. If you are talking about a leading group, then I would not consider Italy, Spain, Romania or Bulgaria among these. Actually, I would not count France among these, but this country can't be overlooked.
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Loew
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
Interesting, why do you include explicitly Poland to your inner circle, when in that region Slovakia is already much more integrated than Poland? Plus it is currently and has been the most eurooptimistic country in that region. Also what about the Baltics? Southern EU countries, Spain, Portugal, Italy? What about Romania or Bulgaria? I have to say, I don´t think this inner circle / outer circle ever is going to happen. You would basically make a lot of countries and hundreds of million people "2nd class" and that could easily destroy EU as it is. Plus, let´s be honest here NL could easily pick the 2nd circle too...


It is not about making anyone 2nd tier citizens. It is about moving forward with countries whom are willing to and can do so. Slovakia is indeed an interesting case, didn't think about them, the Baltics would be included in the Nordic countries (perhaps officially not though). Kind of similar economies, not too much spread, kind of similar attitudes towards government etc. etc. If you are talking about a leading group, then I would not consider Italy, Spain, Romania or Bulgaria among these. Actually, I would not count France among these, but this country can't be overlooked.


I agree that countries willing to integrate more should do so however this could break up the EU as we know it. For example in the eastern EU, I can see Czechia and Austria objecting to more integration. Poland and Hungary could roll either way they see more money coming in. If Czechia and Austria end up in the 2nd circle, Slovakia which would most probably go for more integration would be suddenly an inner circle country surrounded by 2nd circle countries, unless Poland budge. Same goes for the Baltics and Finland. Frankly I don´t see Sweden as an overly eurooptimistic country. Balkans would be 2nd and 1st circle too. Bottom line is, we will end up with a fragmented continent that would be way more complicated than it is today.

Don´t take me wrong, I am all for more integration but salami tactics has to be used in this case, i.e. target has to be set, and then approached step by step. What is the target however? EU federation? Or EU as an intergovernmental organisation? Or EU as an confederation?
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:45 pm

Loew wrote:
What is the target however? EU federation? Or EU as an intergovernmental organisation? Or EU as an confederation?


That is the eternal question nobody agrees upon.
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Loew
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:58 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
What is the target however? EU federation? Or EU as an intergovernmental organisation? Or EU as an confederation?


That is the eternal question nobody agrees upon.


After 50 + years it´s time to choose 8-)
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:17 pm

The US federal budget is 21% of its GDP. How much are you ready to give the EU ?

France is definitely one country asking this question.
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:25 pm

Aesma wrote:
The US federal budget is 21% of its GDP. How much are you ready to give the EU ?

France is definitely one country asking this question.


Well, currently it is 1,4% or so.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:26 pm

Loew wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
What is the target however? EU federation? Or EU as an intergovernmental organisation? Or EU as an confederation?


That is the eternal question nobody agrees upon.


After 50 + years it´s time to choose 8-)


Choosing is (risking) alienating the other side, political saver to mudder through.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
SCQ83
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:31 pm

German economy is headed towards a recession. That will be the canary in the coal mine.

With a debilitated Germany, Italy (already started) will be pushier against the EU. Even Netherlands has its own version of Brexit (Nexit) which is becoming more popular. IMO the key is France. As far as globalist Macron is in power, France will be pro-EU. If that ever changes and a more Eurosceptic France comes in power, it might be interesting to see.

I don't see overall a more "integrated" EU.
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:34 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
German economy is headed towards a recession. That will be the canary in the coal mine.

With a debilitated Germany, Italy (already started) will be pushier against the EU. Even Netherlands has its own version of Brexit (Nexit) which is becoming more popular. IMO the key is France. As far as globalist Macron is in power, France will be pro-EU. If that ever changes and a more Eurosceptic France comes in power, it might be interesting to see.

I don't see overall a more "integrated" EU.


Since Brexit and what it has been doing to the UK, the EU has become more popular with its citizens, Nexit very much included.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:42 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Since Brexit and what it has been doing to the UK, the EU has become more popular with its citizens, Nexit very much included.


Are you kidding me? What has done to the UK?

I recall those The Guardian articles about how London would become the next Detroit or French or German expats living in London horrified telling that they would move back to continental Europe ASAP.

The reality is that nothing of that has happened. Some Euro cities have got some jobs from London for compliance reasons (quite residual in terms of numbers and real impact) and London is still without any doubt the leading financial centre and the most international city in Europe. IMO it will work well for London; it helped take some steam off their economy. On the other hand, countries like Germany are overheated and ready for a recession.

I am not an expert in NL politics, but it seems the "Nexit" party has made quite well in NL in the last elections a few weeks ago:

https://www.westmonster.com/pro-nexit-p ... elections/

Pro-Nexit party makes big gains in Dutch elections


Reality is, the average European just saw that the UK has not substantially changed from the pre-Brexit times; the economy has not collapsed and it runs as good or as bad as before.
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:12 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
German economy is headed towards a recession. That will be the canary in the coal mine.

With a debilitated Germany, Italy (already started) will be pushier against the EU. Even Netherlands has its own version of Brexit (Nexit) which is becoming more popular. IMO the key is France. As far as globalist Macron is in power, France will be pro-EU. If that ever changes and a more Eurosceptic France comes in power, it might be interesting to see.

I don't see overall a more "integrated" EU.


There is not enough of support for nexit in the NL. Baudet is one thing, gaining 50.1% in a referendum is completely different. Same goes for France.
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:49 pm

SCQ83 : the UK is still in the EU, Brexit has not happened yet, FYI.

And London doing well doesn't mean the UK doing well.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
SCQ83
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:52 pm

Aesma wrote:
And London doing well doesn't mean the UK doing well.


Now "London is doing well". Umm a couple of years ago I read in pro-European newspapers that Frankfurt, Paris or Amsterdam would become the new City of Europe.

As for the rest of the UK, I don't see what you are talking about. The division between London and the rest of the country has been for a long time. If you are talking about factories closing, etc. you don't need to look much further than France or Germany.
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:27 pm

The top 3 (or 5 ?) poorest regions in the EU are in the UK. But yes, it's not entirely new, it's just getting worse. And a leading cause for the Brexit vote, of course.
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Number6
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:36 pm

For me, the EU needs to take a pause and get some much needed reforms sorted. Before further integration is even approached, the EU needs to really up its media presence. The public really need to know and understand how the parliament and commission work. They need to know what exactly the EU is responsible for and what it’s not responsible for. If it’s to fight the populist wave, it has to be nimble, transparent and open. I’d also hold further expansion for the next parliament or two.

I’m unashamedly pro European, and I believe that we all work better and achieve more together than apart, but without education, openness and transparency, the whole project could fail within the next 30 years.

So for now, consolidate and take stock.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:10 am

EU to sign yet another new FTA with a SE Asian country, this time with Vietnam.
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/ ... fm?id=2036

But more interestingly even:
"The agreement now reached with Vietnam, alongside the one signed recently with Singapore, will help pave the way for a future region-to-region free trade agreement with the entire Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)."


I'm sure Dr Fox has the British version of those types of deals all ligned up for signing the minute after Brexit, right?
I mean: no trade continuation (aka roll-over) deals with a sundown clause putting massive stress on the negotiating position of the UK when they will have to go back to have a go at trying to negotiate a FTA on their own, but a real FTA... on the promissed better terms?
ROTFL
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:22 pm

I am reading that two or three of the former SSRs have effectively destroyed independent judiciaries, press, and human rights. I am not reading that the EU is effectively addressing this. Have I missed some reporting, if so, provide links?
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par13del
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:32 pm

Number6 wrote:
For me, the EU needs to take a pause and get some much needed reforms sorted. Before further integration is even approached, the EU needs to really up its media presence. The public really need to know and understand how the parliament and commission work. They need to know what exactly the EU is responsible for and what it’s not responsible for. If it’s to fight the populist wave, it has to be nimble, transparent and open. I’d also hold further expansion for the next parliament or two.

I’m unashamedly pro European, and I believe that we all work better and achieve more together than apart, but without education, openness and transparency, the whole project could fail within the next 30 years.

So for now, consolidate and take stock.

+1
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:49 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I am reading that two or three of the former SSRs have effectively destroyed independent judiciaries, press, and human rights. I am not reading that the EU is effectively addressing this. Have I missed some reporting, if so, provide links?


The EU has indeed launched proceedings on Hungary, known as article 7. Article 7 allows the EU to issue sanctions on any EU member who, in the eyes of the law when one of the bloc's members violates the vales of "human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.". The offending member can then have their voting rights removed and sanctions activated until the issues are resolved. The Parliament voted in 2018 to instigate Article 7. It was the first time in its history that the EU has had to envoys article 7 against one of the block members. So far so good. However. The vote from parliament now passes up to the council, which is made up of the heads of state that make up the EU. To pass the article 7 legislation, all 27 heads of state must agree, and Poland simply won’t. So it’s stalemate at the moment

This is where real reforms are needed, and there are plans to change the rules on the dispersement of EU funds to states that are actively pushing through laws that reduce the human rights of its citizens, interfere with the independent judiciary and so on. It also hopes to crack down on corruption. Orbán and his family have gotten rich as funds meant for infrastructure building and so on have been funnelled into crooked schemes. However there’s likely to be significant pushback from the countries these new rules will target.

Here’s a link from Deutsch Welt that explains more, and in English.

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-parliament-vot ... a-45459720
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:39 pm

So will Hungary have accomplished what they wanted to do by the time the EU completes its investigations and implement the force of Article 7?
If the issue is / was to rid the nation of immigrants, they may accomplish the feat, so where is the protection?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:57 pm

Number6 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I am reading that two or three of the former SSRs have effectively destroyed independent judiciaries, press, and human rights. I am not reading that the EU is effectively addressing this. Have I missed some reporting, if so, provide links?


The EU has indeed launched proceedings on Hungary, known as article 7. Article 7 allows the EU to issue sanctions on any EU member who, in the eyes of the law when one of the bloc's members violates the vales of "human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.". The offending member can then have their voting rights removed and sanctions activated until the issues are resolved. The Parliament voted in 2018 to instigate Article 7. It was the first time in its history that the EU has had to envoys article 7 against one of the block members. So far so good. However. The vote from parliament now passes up to the council, which is made up of the heads of state that make up the EU. To pass the article 7 legislation, all 27 heads of state must agree, and Poland simply won’t. So it’s stalemate at the moment

This is where real reforms are needed, and there are plans to change the rules on the dispersement of EU funds to states that are actively pushing through laws that reduce the human rights of its citizens, interfere with the independent judiciary and so on. It also hopes to crack down on corruption. Orbán and his family have gotten rich as funds meant for infrastructure building and so on have been funnelled into crooked schemes. However there’s likely to be significant pushback from the countries these new rules will target.

Here’s a link from Deutsch Welt that explains more, and in English.

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-parliament-vot ... a-45459720


Thanks for the response. As I fear the EU has not come up with anything effective so far. Of course they were not expecting to have to do so, either.
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anrec80
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:20 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I am reading that two or three of the former SSRs have effectively destroyed independent judiciaries, press, and human rights. I am not reading that the EU is effectively addressing this. Have I missed some reporting, if so, provide links?


Which are those SSRs?
 
anrec80
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:23 pm

par13del wrote:
So will Hungary have accomplished what they wanted to do by the time the EU completes its investigations and implement the force of Article 7?
If the issue is / was to rid the nation of immigrants, they may accomplish the feat, so where is the protection?


So what’s the priority in EU? Our biggest EU supporters talk about more unification, yet the EU is dictating Hungary and Hungarians how to live. Huh - wanna have their cake and eat it too.
 
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Loew
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:01 pm

anrec80 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So will Hungary have accomplished what they wanted to do by the time the EU completes its investigations and implement the force of Article 7?
If the issue is / was to rid the nation of immigrants, they may accomplish the feat, so where is the protection?


So what’s the priority in EU? Our biggest EU supporters talk about more unification, yet the EU is dictating Hungary and Hungarians how to live. Huh - wanna have their cake and eat it too.


Of course. A101 and the melody boys. Maybe you should go to Hungary and investigate how the EU´s dictatorship has affected this otherwise flourishing country, where the ruling party owns all the media and the prime minister is working so hard for the people, he had to employ most members of his family and friend circle to help him out. Don´t forget to talk to regular Hungarians and note down their complaints about how the EU is dictating them how to live LOL
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:45 pm

Aesma wrote:
The top 3 (or 5 ?) poorest regions in the EU are in the UK. But yes, it's not entirely new, it's just getting worse. And a leading cause for the Brexit vote, of course.


The UK does not have any of the poorest regions in the EU, firstly the report from which this claim is made specifically stated Northern Europe, and had a strange definition of Northern Europe, it included France, but not the Baltic states. Then it did not measure pure wealth, but looked at the overall GDP of each nation, and then how each part of the nation compared. The UK performed relatively poorly by this method due to the very high GDP of greater London
 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:28 pm

 
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:49 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Number6 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I am reading that two or three of the former SSRs have effectively destroyed independent judiciaries, press, and human rights. I am not reading that the EU is effectively addressing this. Have I missed some reporting, if so, provide links?


The EU has indeed launched proceedings on Hungary, known as article 7. Article 7 allows the EU to issue sanctions on any EU member who, in the eyes of the law when one of the bloc's members violates the vales of "human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.". The offending member can then have their voting rights removed and sanctions activated until the issues are resolved. The Parliament voted in 2018 to instigate Article 7. It was the first time in its history that the EU has had to envoys article 7 against one of the block members. So far so good. However. The vote from parliament now passes up to the council, which is made up of the heads of state that make up the EU. To pass the article 7 legislation, all 27 heads of state must agree, and Poland simply won’t. So it’s stalemate at the moment

This is where real reforms are needed, and there are plans to change the rules on the dispersement of EU funds to states that are actively pushing through laws that reduce the human rights of its citizens, interfere with the independent judiciary and so on. It also hopes to crack down on corruption. Orbán and his family have gotten rich as funds meant for infrastructure building and so on have been funnelled into crooked schemes. However there’s likely to be significant pushback from the countries these new rules will target.

Here’s a link from Deutsch Welt that explains more, and in English.

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-parliament-vot ... a-45459720


Thanks for the response. As I fear the EU has not come up with anything effective so far. Of course they were not expecting to have to do so, either.


It seems the US has some similar issues with the treatment of minorities in some states, but that isn't even really acknowledged.
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Dutchy
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:58 pm

anrec80 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So will Hungary have accomplished what they wanted to do by the time the EU completes its investigations and implement the force of Article 7?
If the issue is / was to rid the nation of immigrants, they may accomplish the feat, so where is the protection?


So what’s the priority in EU? Our biggest EU supporters talk about more unification, yet the EU is dictating Hungary and Hungarians how to live. Huh - wanna have their cake and eat it too.


No, your aim is to disrupt the EU as much as possible, the EU's aim is to uphold the rule of law which Hungary agreed up on. If they feel they do not want to uphold human rights anymore, that is fine, then quit the EU.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Redd
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:23 pm

anrec80 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I am reading that two or three of the former SSRs have effectively destroyed independent judiciaries, press, and human rights. I am not reading that the EU is effectively addressing this. Have I missed some reporting, if so, provide links?


Which are those SSRs?


Poland - But there is hope the current hopeless nationalists will be gone with the election, but they've already announced more handouts. They've destroyed independent judiciaries, the national press is similar to North Korean and makes Fox News really seem fair and balanced. On the human rights front, they've implemented a faith-based medical system, so doctors can refuse life-saving procedures based on their Catholic faith, outlawed abortion for the most part unless the woman is a rape victim but they're trying to outlaw that as well, but once again even if the woman's life is in danger a doctor may refuse to proceed with the procedure based on faith.

They've stirred up extreme racism, which has caused hundreds of assaults on foreigners and even native Poles, often for just speaking a foreign language. These assaults are ignored by the police when they are reported. When the current party came to power they purged the police system of any ''non-believers'' in the cult-like system of Kaczynski (over 12,000 lost their jobs) and were replaced with thugs and hoodlums. For the first time since the 90's we started to see American style police beatings ending in deaths and shootings. Many of the victims of these beatings and deaths were innocent people who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time mistaken for somebody else.

They've waged a war on small business' causing many businesses to re-register in other countries. Freezing companies assets pending investigations which can often last years, but the companies targeted are owned by people who aren't aligned with the current government. The ones which are left alone. I can go on and on.
 
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Loew
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:40 pm

 
slider
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:36 pm

Let me ask my European friends here--is the EU sustainable long term if it continues along the premise of trying to be an all-encompassing pan-European model of governance? Is it possible?

People--all people--are the product of culture, history and traditions, language, social mores, etc. How can the EU transcend that sort of centuries-old parochialism? (Recall the German response to Greece when the austerity measures were enacted). Regional differences, factionalism, and so on are as old as time itself and cannot be swept away by a confederate edict.

Bottom line: what comprises the collective beliefs or values that can be a foundation of a whole European-wide community? What is it that all Europeans believe?

No flaming here, I'm curious to hear what affinity or disaffinity you may have toward the EU and where you would take it.
 
Olddog
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Fri Jul 05, 2019 5:21 pm

slider wrote:
Bottom line: what comprises the collective beliefs or values that can be a foundation of a whole European-wide community? What is it that all Europeans believe?


What are the common values between a Frisco inhabitant and a red neck from bible belt ?
 
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Loew
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:57 am

slider wrote:
Let me ask my European friends here--is the EU sustainable long term if it continues along the premise of trying to be an all-encompassing pan-European model of governance? Is it possible?

People--all people--are the product of culture, history and traditions, language, social mores, etc. How can the EU transcend that sort of centuries-old parochialism? (Recall the German response to Greece when the austerity measures were enacted). Regional differences, factionalism, and so on are as old as time itself and cannot be swept away by a confederate edict.

Bottom line: what comprises the collective beliefs or values that can be a foundation of a whole European-wide community? What is it that all Europeans believe?

No flaming here, I'm curious to hear what affinity or disaffinity you may have toward the EU and where you would take it.


Those values are and has been pretty much the same as anywhere else in the western world. Freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law to name a few. French may have different mindet than Germans, Poles may have different culture than Croatians, Greeks may believe into a different god that Italians but that does not affect these values in any way.
 
blueflyer
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:31 pm

Overall, I mostly agree with Dutchy. I think the next ten years will see the beginning of a process where the EU will yet again divide itself internally. A block of countries will seek more integration, moving ever closer to a United States of Europe (but not quite getting there), including making constitutional changes towards that goal. Other EU countries will prefer to retain more independence, and will (have to) accept less integration and less economic benefits as a cost. Over time (well beyond 10 years), the "first tier" countries will lose interest in the remaining countries, and the "second tier" will look more and more like a very advanced customs union. Eventually, some of these second tier countries will want in the first tier, not out of conviction but out of perceived economic necessity. If admitted, they will fight from the inside to retain as much of their independence as possible and request special considerations at every turn... and we will have found our next UK!

Dutchy wrote:
Some countries want to integrate much further, look at the BeNeLux for instance. Why not cater for that.

That is if there is a Be left to be integrated. With the Northern half voting far right and the Southern half voting very-left-of-center, meeting in the middle will be fun... Could also be just FlaNeLux with the rest of Be now the department of Wallonia.

slider wrote:
Bottom line: what comprises the collective beliefs or values that can be a foundation of a whole European-wide community?

The lack of a clear definition of what EU membership entails and the implementation of an effective enforcement mechanism are the EU's biggest failures to date. In the name of enlargement, the EU has admitted countries with about 5 seconds worth of democratic ideals on the vague promise to always be good, rather than wait for them to demonstrate a long-term commitment to democracy, the rule-of-law, and implement solid reforms to back up their commitment. A process that requires a unanimous vote of all other member countries to punish one was doomed from the start. Any two countries (like Poland and Hungary) can decide to throw the rule book out the window, do as they please, and there is nothing the rest of the EU can do to bring them back into line, or cut them off.

I wish the EU would spend the next ten years on defining what it takes to be a EU member, and develop a membership process that requires a long-term commitment of more than a couple of successive governments, together with an accountability process.

Ultimately, citizens of EU countries retain the right to vote for whomever they want. If they choose to elect a government that does not share in the common ideals of EU membership, such as an independent judiciary or the four freedoms, the benefits they derive from EU membership should end swiftly.

Olddog wrote:
What are the common values between a Frisco inhabitant and a red neck from bible belt ?

Depends, was that hypothetical Frisco resident born in India, California, or Alabama?
 
Ken777
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:55 pm

As a Yank I'm far too ignorant on European political/economic issues to make any intelligent statements about 10 years from now.

My thoughts about today are pretty simple. I strongly believe that the EU needs to hold the UK in a very close friendship even if BRITIX goes through. Besides the common bond that the EU offered there was a second common bond - called NATO. When you look NATO you need to understand that a Trump re-election can result in the end of NATO as we know it today, or better yet, under most Presidents before Trump. As soon as Putin orders Trump to shut NATO down it will happen. Maybe over a year or two, but Trump will work har to kill it.

The deterioration of NATO, IMO, leads to a situation where the EU and UK need to retain the non-US side of NATO. There means the majority of the UK aspect of their EU membership needs to be retained in some form. Pull all the major banks out of the UK, or cause other economic delicate and the EU will loose the political support in the UK to help defend EU countries. It's easy to say that the EU doesn't need a strong military but I believe it is critical, especially with Trump being Putin's lap dog.

In that vine I believe that average Brits and Europeans should be very upset when they read of a plant closing in the UK because of Brexit. It's simply causing bad feelings that do not favor mutual defense protections.

So, for 10 years from now, all I can guess is that everything will depend on how close the countries can remain.
 
olle
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:12 pm

Considering the names presented for the heavy positions both germany want more EU.

After brexit meaning no uk veto and western and eastern europe worried over nato we will see changes.
 
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Aesma
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:53 am

Bad feelings in the UK are already there, that's why people voted for Brexit !

Would UK citizens support defending Poland, when they explicitly voted Brexit in the hopes the Poles would be leaving their country ?

Also, the UK has always been against an EU military alliance, so even without NATO it wouldn't be a given. If the US becomes truly isolationist, I could see the UK doing the same.
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L410Turbolet
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:29 am

Aesma wrote:
Would UK citizens support defending Poland, when they explicitly voted Brexit in the hopes the Poles would be leaving their country ?

What does Brexit have to do with NATO?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:54 pm

There will be no trade agreements with the EU, the US, Canada if the UK does not ensure there is no border between the ROI and the north of Ireland. The UK's isolation will be stark, Airbus will be allowed to get its wings, EU will ensure UK has drugs and food - and some other exceptions. Did I hear the words, "basket case"? It might be an understatement.
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Aesma
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Re: EU after Brexit: What´s next?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:11 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Would UK citizens support defending Poland, when they explicitly voted Brexit in the hopes the Poles would be leaving their country ?

What does Brexit have to do with NATO?


Someone talked about NATO disappearing under Trump, and the need for Europeans to have an alliance of our own.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams

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