LittleSprocket
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Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:58 pm

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a record high on Thursday, led by UnitedHealth shares, after testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled easier monetary policy could be implemented later this month.

The 30-stock average broke above 27,000 for the first time in its history, before trading just below that level. The Dow was up 0.5%, or 132 points, around 9:50 a.m. ET.”

So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/11/stock-m ... e-cut.html
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:01 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a record high on Thursday, led by UnitedHealth shares, after testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled easier monetary policy could be implemented later this month.

The 30-stock average broke above 27,000 for the first time in its history, before trading just below that level. The Dow was up 0.5%, or 132 points, around 9:50 a.m. ET.”

So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/11/stock-m ... e-cut.html


Not this again - POTUSes always take credit for good economic results and shirk it when shit hits the fan but they do not run the economy in any meaningful way - symbolic at best. You have other investors and continued foreign interest in US treasury bonds to thank, not 45.

The DJIA is only a beneficial KPI for those with skin in the market. For most Americans, real (not average) wages and key cost of living indicators matter far more - and for now, they are just okay, and definitely not great.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:14 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.


Umm...let see...

Previous high was 26828.39, on Oct. 3, 2018. So 27000 points represent a <1% gain for 9 months.

Of course YTD return is high - the stock market was having a mini crash right around Christmas, with DJIA falling to 21792.80 on Christmas Eve, and was at 23346,24 on Jan. 2. That doesn't change the fact that stock market had been literally flat since Jan. 2018 or so.

P.S. You have Jerome Powell to thank for DJIA reaching 27000, not IQ45. Economic outlook around the world is still weak, economic growth in US YoY is nothing to write home about (Unless you consider 2-3% growth that great).
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:16 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a record high on Thursday, led by UnitedHealth shares, after testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled easier monetary policy could be implemented later this month.

The 30-stock average broke above 27,000 for the first time in its history, before trading just below that level. The Dow was up 0.5%, or 132 points, around 9:50 a.m. ET.”

So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/11/stock-m ... e-cut.html

Still vastly outperformed by Obama lol
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:33 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a record high on Thursday, led by UnitedHealth shares, after testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled easier monetary policy could be implemented later this month.

The 30-stock average broke above 27,000 for the first time in its history, before trading just below that level. The Dow was up 0.5%, or 132 points, around 9:50 a.m. ET.”

So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.

I can't keep up with the constant back and forth:
1. Are low rates a good thing or a bad thing? You wouldn't know since Trump kept complaining about low rates during Obama's presidency but seems to like them now.
2. Is the stock market an indicator of a good economy or not? You wouldn't know since Republicans kept saying that it wasn't during the Obama years.
3. Are we breaking new levels or are these fake numbers? You wouldn't know since before the election it was all doom and bloom despite the stock market almost doubling since the lows of the Great Recession.
4. Can we blame a president if the stock market experiences a correction? After all, logic dictates that if I'm responsible for the rise and demand credit, I should be liable for the crashes and downturns. I mean, wasn't that the argument du jour with Obama?
5. Are we truly giving it to the "elites" when their money is growing while the Appalachian or Rust Belt family is not benefiting? Asking for a friend...

In the meantime, yes...thank you Trump for not messing up the growth rates that have been in place since before you even announced your candidacy.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:31 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
LittleSprocket wrote:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a record high on Thursday, led by UnitedHealth shares, after testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled easier monetary policy could be implemented later this month.

The 30-stock average broke above 27,000 for the first time in its history, before trading just below that level. The Dow was up 0.5%, or 132 points, around 9:50 a.m. ET.”

So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.

I can't keep up with the constant back and forth:
1. Are low rates a good thing or a bad thing? You wouldn't know since Trump kept complaining about low rates during Obama's presidency but seems to like them now.
2. Is the stock market an indicator of a good economy or not? You wouldn't know since Republicans kept saying that it wasn't during the Obama years.
3. Are we breaking new levels or are these fake numbers? You wouldn't know since before the election it was all doom and bloom despite the stock market almost doubling since the lows of the Great Recession.
4. Can we blame a president if the stock market experiences a correction? After all, logic dictates that if I'm responsible for the rise and demand credit, I should be liable for the crashes and downturns. I mean, wasn't that the argument du jour with Obama?
5. Are we truly giving it to the "elites" when their money is growing while the Appalachian or Rust Belt family is not benefiting? Asking for a friend...

In the meantime, yes...thank you Trump for not messing up the growth rates that have been in place since before you even announced your candidacy.

I think they call all that cognitive dissonance TDS :rotfl:
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
seat64k
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:47 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.


Dream on. If the DJIA is your metric, your economy is doing terribly.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Previous high was 26828.39, on Oct. 3, 2018. So 27000 points represent a <1% gain for 9 months.


It's even worse if you go back further. 26616.71 on Jan 22, 2018. That means barely 1.5% in up 18 months. To put that in context, the DJIA took only 15 months to recover from the 2008 crash, and just three more weeks to climb 1.5% over pre-crash levels. By the 18 month mark it was up 5.5%
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:19 pm

And what is the national debt? And why is it growing when we are making more money than ever? When we have an economy that is stronger than ever?

Based on that there is no reason at all for their to be increasing debt. If someone wants to take credit for an economy they MUST take credit for the spending of the government.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
dmg626
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:44 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a record high on Thursday, led by UnitedHealth shares, after testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled easier monetary policy could be implemented later this month.

The 30-stock average broke above 27,000 for the first time in its history, before trading just below that level. The Dow was up 0.5%, or 132 points, around 9:50 a.m. ET.”

So much for all the leftist hyperbole about Trump crashing the economy if elected. Thank you President Trump for my 19% YTD rate of return.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/11/stock-m ... e-cut.html


Reasonable people agree, the left believes that every piece of economic data is bad and only when a liberal is back in office will any economic news be good again. My 401k and investments are doing quite well, glad to be in it during this time period, ups and downs will occur though, and once again reasonable people understand this cycle
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:59 pm

dmg626 wrote:
Reasonable people agree, the left believes that every piece of economic data is bad and only when a liberal is back in office will any economic news be good again. My 401k and investments are doing quite well, glad to be in it during this time period, ups and downs will occur though, and once again reasonable people understand this cycle

At least you agree that "the current administration" is not the reason for the economy now. Just the normal cycle, it goes down for one admin, up for the next, it all depends on luck of the draw. You are just lucky it is now (as you state).

Honestly though, our point of view (I am having the same success in my investments :bigthumbsup: ) is a problem for many economies. Older people tend to only care about their immediate needs, their retirement in two, ten, twenty years, so don't care about "the future". This leads to greater debt, lower investment in needs for the younger population etc. Why encourage that when I won't need it use it or care since I'll be dead before it affects me? I try to counter that drive though if I can.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:14 pm

dmg626 wrote:
Reasonable people agree, the left right believes that every piece of economic data is bad and only when a liberal conservative is back in office will any economic news be good again. My 401k and investments are doing quite well, glad to be in it during this time period, ups and downs will occur though, and once again reasonable people understand this cycle

Fixed it for you.

Remember how unemployment kept going down and people kept saying that we had to look at the REAL unemployment? Heck, I remember the unemployment being over 42%. Every time the unemployment numbers came out, they were fake or were never good enough. The stock market reaching records was to be dismissed because it wasn't an effective economic indicator. And when GDP numbers came out, they were also fake or never good enough. If oil prices went up, it was the president's fault; when they went down, it was the free market (that situation now is reversed where if they go up it's the free market and if they go down it's thanks to the president).

Which one is it then?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Aesma
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:36 pm

Instead of investing, companies are using cheap credit to buy back shares. Shares go up, but nothing more is produced, there are no earnings to talk about aside from the tax break, it's all smoke and mirrors.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:25 pm

Here is why Trump gets credit for the stock market. The left long ago decided that he would take sole credit for a decline in the stock market. How soon we forget that Paul Krugman told us that Trump’s election would result in a global recession with no end in sight. (Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/pro ... ic-fallout )

Sorry leftists. You don’t get to play it both ways.
 
AirplaneFixer
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:46 pm

Magog wrote:
Here is why Trump gets credit for the stock market. The left long ago decided that he would take sole credit for a decline in the stock market. How soon we forget that Paul Krugman told us that Trump’s election would result in a global recession with no end in sight. (Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/pro ... ic-fallout )

Sorry leftists. You don’t get to play it both ways.


Nice to see this name back, been a long time! Welcome!
 
jpetekyxmd80
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:48 pm

We've missed his many contributions to Civil Av!
The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:52 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
Here is why Trump gets credit for the stock market. The left long ago decided that he would take sole credit for a decline in the stock market. How soon we forget that Paul Krugman told us that Trump’s election would result in a global recession with no end in sight. (Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/pro ... ic-fallout )

Sorry leftists. You don’t get to play it both ways.

But it hasn't finished yet. Even if Trump loses the next election and the Dem winner is in office when the downturn starts and a recession looms, that will still be because of Trump disastrous presidency and what he has started/created.

But Trump does not care about the nation or it doing well, only that he and his family do well.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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DL717
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:44 am

Tugger wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
Here is why Trump gets credit for the stock market. The left long ago decided that he would take sole credit for a decline in the stock market. How soon we forget that Paul Krugman told us that Trump’s election would result in a global recession with no end in sight. (Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/pro ... ic-fallout )

Sorry leftists. You don’t get to play it both ways.

But it hasn't finished yet. Even if Trump loses the next election and the Dem winner is in office when the downturn starts and a recession looms, that will still be because of Trump disastrous presidency and what he has started/created.

But Trump does not care about the nation or it doing well, only that he and his family do well.

Tugg


Do you have any evidence to that last part? I only ask because you didn’t provide any. I seem to be benefiting quite nicely from a financial perspective, and it doesn’t have anything to do with his family.
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seb146
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:46 am

And the occupant of the White House and his son-in-law want to DECREASE the interest rates. Someone knows the economy is slowing but don't want it slowing now for some reason. hmmmmmm.......
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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DL717
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:54 am

seb146 wrote:
And the occupant of the White House and his son-in-law want to DECREASE the interest rates. Someone knows the economy is slowing but don't want it slowing now for some reason. hmmmmmm.......


You mean the President? I hope it is slowing. The economy needs a breather. Better a soft landing through reduced interest rates.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:18 pm

To nobody's surprises...

1. Interest rate cut not as much as expected = DJIA Down 300 (~1%)
2. Tariffs coming back = change a +300 on DJIA into a -280 (-1%).

27000? Welcome back to 26500. So basically, a net gain of 0% from Jan. 2018.
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:49 pm

I pulled out a third of my money last week. I wish that I pulled out more.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:22 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
The left long ago decided that he would take sole credit for a decline in the stock market.

After conservatives denied any credit to Obama for increases to the stock market. After the DJIA touched bottom at around the 7200 level, the index rebounded and was at about 17,900 by election 2016 (more than double) and at 19,800 when he left office.

We were told repeatedly by conservatives that Obama was destroying the US economy (despite the fact that besides a couple of quarters where weather was a big factor and the ones shortly after the Great Recession ended, growth has been positive), and that the stock market was crashing (though all indexes were nearly double their value).

Hint: for the stock market to have hit 20k (the first milestone under Trump), it needed to hit 19k and before that 18k, and 17k before that. But no...this was a Christmas miracle that from 400 we jumped up to 20k in the blink of an eye.

VTKillarney wrote:
Sorry leftists. You don’t get to play it both ways.

But you conservatives love to have your cake and eat it too. Especially Trump who loves to brag about new records but blames others for the declines. It's only fair that if he owns the positives, he owns the negatives too.

Conservatives also like to say stuff like:
1. The stock market is not an indicator of the economy (but if there's a Republican, it's the ONLY metric).
2. We can't read too much into the day to day movements (but if there's a Democrat and the market goes down, it's a sign that their policies are hurting).
3. When hitting records, it's a sign that policies are working (except for Democrats, because a president has no control over the stock market).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:10 pm

The WH can lie and claim whatever they like - any American over 65 knows ‘the best economy ever’ was when economists say it was: the gangbusters period from 1955 to 1972. GDP exceeded 5% growth 11 times, real earnings expanded throughout this period until beginning a slide in 1974. In almost any US city one steady job was enough to afford the going rate for an apartment. One professional level job was generally enough to afford a mortgage or house rental for families as well.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
LittleSprocket
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:24 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
To nobody's surprises...

1. Interest rate cut not as much as expected = DJIA Down 300 (~1%)
2. Tariffs coming back = change a +300 on DJIA into a -280 (-1%).

27000? Welcome back to 26500. So basically, a net gain of 0% from Jan. 2018.


You don’t know much about investing do you? Anyone that’s anyone in investing knows that you look forward to the downturn. It’s a perfect time to buy up cheaper securities. Go read a book by Benjamin Graeme called the Intelligent Investor. I recommend the version with insights from Jason Zweig. It tells you exactly how people that invested more during the 2008 financial crisis did amazing after the fact. The markets rise and fall. Guess where the SPY will be tomorrow and into next week?
 
LittleSprocket
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:26 pm

seb146 wrote:
And the occupant of the White House and his son-in-law want to DECREASE the interest rates. Someone knows the economy is slowing but don't want it slowing now for some reason. hmmmmmm.......


And? We are currently in the midst of one the longest bull runs in history. The market needs to pull back some in order to avoid being over valued.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:25 am

LittleSprocket wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
To nobody's surprises...

1. Interest rate cut not as much as expected = DJIA Down 300 (~1%)
2. Tariffs coming back = change a +300 on DJIA into a -280 (-1%).

27000? Welcome back to 26500. So basically, a net gain of 0% from Jan. 2018.


You don’t know much about investing do you? Anyone that’s anyone in investing knows that you look forward to the downturn. It’s a perfect time to buy up cheaper securities. Go read a book by Benjamin Graeme called the Intelligent Investor. I recommend the version with insights from Jason Zweig. It tells you exactly how people that invested more during the 2008 financial crisis did amazing after the fact. The markets rise and fall. Guess where the SPY will be tomorrow and into next week?


Meh...my whole point was that all these “rise” in stock market are nothing but thin air created by both the tariff truce and the expectation of the interest rate drop.

I personally has stay out of stock market for the paat year - although I did have regrets of not buying when DJIA was way down around 24000.

LittleSprocket wrote:
seb146 wrote:
And the occupant of the White House and his son-in-law want to DECREASE the interest rates. Someone knows the economy is slowing but don't want it slowing now for some reason. hmmmmmm.......


And? We are currently in the midst of one the longest bull runs in history. The market needs to pull back some in order to avoid being over valued.


Except, in IQ45 own quote, he basically want a decrease in interest rate just so “stock market can go up another 10000 points”, basically to make him look good. In reality, it is a bunch of borrowed money out of thin air that “prop” the market up.

I agree with you otherwise - the stock market and economic growth are simply not matching up (i.e. market is definitely over valued) - something has to give.
 
seb146
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:30 am

LittleSprocket wrote:
seb146 wrote:
And the occupant of the White House and his son-in-law want to DECREASE the interest rates. Someone knows the economy is slowing but don't want it slowing now for some reason. hmmmmmm.......


And? We are currently in the midst of one the longest bull runs in history. The market needs to pull back some in order to avoid being over valued.


This long run started under Obama. Seven plus years. They only want interest rates lower so they can borrow huge amounts of money cheaply. And his buddies in Russia and DPRK and Philippines. If he wants to keep the economy going, maybe he should hire Americans to do things like manufacturing so we can pump more money into the economy AND have a larger tax base to pay for things like affordable health care and affordable education.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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EstherLouise
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:57 pm

What worries me is the downturn in rail traffic by 5% since last year. Rail traffic is one of the primary indicators of a healthy economy. Here are a bunch of stored Norfolk and Southern locomotives... not a good sign.

Image
712 722 732 734 737 738 741 742 744 752 762 772 A310 DC91 DC93 DC94 DC1030 DC1040 F100 MD82 MD83
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:06 pm

And in 2016 there was a report on all of those engines stored in the same location:
https://www.wdbj7.com/content/news/Norf ... 34801.html

Your photo is from here: https://www.railpictures.net/photo/705484/
I noticed that you left out the following comment on the photo: "This is the result of Precision Railroading, whose policies are to haul the most freight cars with the least amount of locomotives and people."

So the photograph is meaningless. The relevant question is how many additional locomotives are being stored because of a downturn in the economy. You have not given us that data in regard to the photograph.

As I said earlier, I pulled out 33% percent of my money from the stock market last week. I wish that I had pulled more out. I also see signs of an economic downturn. For example, registrations for the motorcycle permit class in my state are down substantially this year. There used to be a waiting list for these classes. These things may seem trivial, but I am not convinced that they are.

The question is whether or not the Federal Reserve holds off a recession. In my opinion, their intervention just makes the bubble inflate more and pop harder.
 
LittleSprocket
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:20 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
And in 2016 there was a report on all of those engines stored in the same location:
https://www.wdbj7.com/content/news/Norf ... 34801.html

Your photo is from here: https://www.railpictures.net/photo/705484/
I noticed that you left out the following comment on the photo: "This is the result of Precision Railroading, whose policies are to haul the most freight cars with the least amount of locomotives and people."

So the photograph is meaningless. The relevant question is how many additional locomotives are being stored because of a downturn in the economy. You have not given us that data in regard to the photograph.

As I said earlier, I pulled out 33% percent of my money from the stock market last week. I wish that I had pulled more out. I also see signs of an economic downturn. For example, registrations for the motorcycle permit class in my state are down substantially this year. There used to be a waiting list for these classes. These things may seem trivial, but I am not convinced that they are.

The question is whether or not the Federal Reserve holds off a recession. In my opinion, their intervention just makes the bubble inflate more and pop harder.


Not at all trivial, we have been due a downturn for some while now. When the market becomes artificially over priced the way that it has, it is going to fall. That’s honestly why I invest in stocks that have low P/E ratios, Benjamin Graeme recommended anything under 25 but I’m more conservative and I keep it under 18. Some say to invest in stocks like Amazon and Google but looking at their P/E ratios...they are going to fall the same way the .com stocks fell in 2000-2002. I was just looking at a stock for Beyond Meat... speculators have artificially inflated it 604% since it was listed this past May. Great for options at the beginning but no way would it be a smart investment.

If you are really looking to preserve capital, look for index funds that focus on bonds. I try to maintain 15% or so in there to reduce the drastic cuts the market can give you. (Please note, I’m not a financial analyst and all this should be researched by you before taking the advice of a random guy on the internets advice).
 
N757ST
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:15 pm

EstherLouise wrote:
What worries me is the downturn in rail traffic by 5% since last year. Rail traffic is one of the primary indicators of a healthy economy. Here are a bunch of stored Norfolk and Southern locomotives... not a good sign.

Image


Much of the decrease in freight rail traffic is due to all the railroads adopting the now deceased Hunter Harrison’s system of prediction scheduled railroading. It’s a bit complicated, but basically more direct trains, longer trains, less employees, far less locomotives, and the bypassing of classification yards. In addition, the class one railroads are selling marginal corridors to the smaller railroads to manage and are concentrating on core routes. I don’t think it’s related to the economy at this time,
 
N757ST
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:16 pm

Sorry, I meant precision scheduled railroading. The forum software won’t allow me to edit my post.
 
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johnboy
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:54 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
seb146 wrote:
And the occupant of the White House and his son-in-law want to DECREASE the interest rates. Someone knows the economy is slowing but don't want it slowing now for some reason. hmmmmmm.......


And? We are currently in the midst of one the longest bull runs in history. The market needs to pull back some in order to avoid being over valued.


I love the difference between three weeks ago and now.

#theinternetisforever
 
LittleSprocket
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:00 pm

johnboy wrote:
LittleSprocket wrote:
seb146 wrote:
And the occupant of the White House and his son-in-law want to DECREASE the interest rates. Someone knows the economy is slowing but don't want it slowing now for some reason. hmmmmmm.......


And? We are currently in the midst of one the longest bull runs in history. The market needs to pull back some in order to avoid being over valued.


I love the difference between three weeks ago and now.

#theinternetisforever


Yes John...the internet is forever and a lot happens in 3 weeks, which is why you should ALWAYS plan for the downturn. I hedge my losses with both options on my stock choices as well as investing in bonds which traditionally rise when the market drops. It’s funny how you don’t seem to comprehend that and only look to make a snide remark...such a sad existence!
 
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casinterest
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:38 pm

Trump's cunning plan for Tariffs on China could result in a recession right as Election season gets into full swing.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariff-r ... ey-1452621

"If the U.S. were to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from China for 4-6 months and China were to respond with countermeasures, we believe we would see the global economy entering recession in three quarters," said the note, which estimated that global growth would fall to a 7-year low by the end of 2019 if the new tariffs are implemented and China responds with countermeasures."


Stocks may go back down to very low levels.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:32 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
Yes John...the internet is forever and a lot happens in 3 weeks, which is why you should ALWAYS plan for the downturn.

But in this such a happy filled market boom, why would we plan for a downturn? Unless you seem to be under the impression that maybe the market can't sustain a bull run for long and could experience a crash...but that's impossible because tax cuts and deregulation and Trump!
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:43 pm

casinterest wrote:
Trump's cunning plan for Tariffs on China could result in a recession right as Election season gets into full swing.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariff-r ... ey-1452621

"If the U.S. were to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from China for 4-6 months and China were to respond with countermeasures, we believe we would see the global economy entering recession in three quarters," said the note, which estimated that global growth would fall to a 7-year low by the end of 2019 if the new tariffs are implemented and China responds with countermeasures."


Stocks may go back down to very low levels.

There's a slight possibility that Trump may also want to respond by weakening the dollar (considering China allowed the Renminbi to devalue below $7). And considering that Trump is never one to change course, especially when he finds an adversary, don't be surprised if he attempts to intervene at the Fed to that the policy is a weaker dollar.

The Great Tariff War of 2019 could become the Great Current War of 2019.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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casinterest
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:48 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump's cunning plan for Tariffs on China could result in a recession right as Election season gets into full swing.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariff-r ... ey-1452621

"If the U.S. were to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from China for 4-6 months and China were to respond with countermeasures, we believe we would see the global economy entering recession in three quarters," said the note, which estimated that global growth would fall to a 7-year low by the end of 2019 if the new tariffs are implemented and China responds with countermeasures."


Stocks may go back down to very low levels.

There's a slight possibility that Trump may also want to respond by weakening the dollar (considering China allowed the Renminbi to devalue below $7). And considering that Trump is never one to change course, especially when he finds an adversary, don't be surprised if he attempts to intervene at the Fed to that the policy is a weaker dollar.

The Great Tariff War of 2019 could become the Great Current War of 2019.


It will not end well for Trump. The markets decline and a recession will guarantee a loss of the Presidency for him.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:13 pm

I don't understand why the market hasn't already priced in Trump's trade war with China. It seems like they're "surprised" today that his plan is....no plan, when a shrubbery could have told you that two years ago. And these are presumably smart people that A) know China and B) no Trump is an bootleg emperor with no clothes since the 70s
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
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casinterest
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:16 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
I don't understand why the market hasn't already priced in Trump's trade war with China. It seems like they're "surprised" today that his plan is....no plan, when a shrubbery could have told you that two years ago. And these are presumably smart people that A) know China and B) no Trump is an bootleg emperor with no clothes since the 70s


The market somehow expected him to stop. However no one saw the Chinese endgame, which is that they will protect their economy at all costs using their currency. The US Dollar is treated better than Gold by China. Now everyone is worried that Trump, in his love for never giving up, will actually try to devalue the dollar in a race to the bottom. This will ultimately cost consumers more.

I think the reason for the panic now, is that steps are in place for that race, and everyone realizes that most of the semi-rational folks already left the White House.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:21 pm

casinterest wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
I don't understand why the market hasn't already priced in Trump's trade war with China. It seems like they're "surprised" today that his plan is....no plan, when a shrubbery could have told you that two years ago. And these are presumably smart people that A) know China and B) no Trump is an bootleg emperor with no clothes since the 70s


The market somehow expected him to stop. However no one saw the Chinese endgame, which is that they will protect their economy at all costs using their currency. The US Dollar is treated better than Gold by China. Now everyone is worried that Trump, in his love for never giving up, will actually try to devalue the dollar in a race to the bottom. This will ultimately cost consumers more.

I think the reason for the panic now, is that steps are in place for that race, and everyone realizes that most of the semi-rational folks already left the White House.

It boggles my mind that people are stupid enough to think Trump would stop, or that China--which went through the Cultural Revolution--would bend to another country
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:35 pm

casinterest wrote:
The market somehow expected him to stop. However no one saw the Chinese endgame, which is that they will protect their economy at all costs using their currency. The US Dollar is treated better than Gold by China. Now everyone is worried that Trump, in his love for never giving up, will actually try to devalue the dollar in a race to the bottom. This will ultimately cost consumers more.

I think the reason for the panic now, is that steps are in place for that race, and everyone realizes that most of the semi-rational folks already left the White House.

And let's not forget that China is better equipped to deal with this for two main reasons:
1. Beijing still has lots of control over the Renminbi. Trump can only install a puppet at the Fed but the dollar's value comes from its status as a reserve currency and from the currency market.
2. Xi Jinping can lose his position as Chinese leader, but the move has to fail massively (even worse than the Great Leap Forward) for the CPC to remove Xi Jinping. Trump, however, faces an election in less than 16 months and Beijing can hit hard at his base (especially the farmers and factories in the Midwest) for that time in the hopes that Trump is defeated and a more pragmatic person (one who does not resort to tit-for-tats) is elected.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:45 pm

Don't fool yourself, there is significant risk to China and their economy. They are not economically strong enough really since they are dependent on exports, and do not have a truly vibrant internal economy.

They are also at a fairly key point, trying to turn on that internal economy for the past few years with more liberal lending policies and pushing more of the population into the market, but the internal demand has not yet made the turn. It is at significant risk with a lot of debt and an entire aging generation to deal with soon that is needing plans put in place now to manage in the future.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:08 pm

Well, to start off, DJIA drops 767 points today, so we're back to below 26000.

As for the trade war - there's really no winner. China has to restructure their whole economy to get around the fact that they're extremely reliant on exports, while for US, the tariffs would eventually increase the price that consumers has to pay, and thus, reduce demands and spending = less money circulating around = chain reaction into an economic downturn.

MaverickM11 wrote:
It boggles my mind that people are stupid enough to think Trump would stop, or that China--which went through the Cultural Revolution--would bend to another country


And since it's Emperor Xi you're talking about here, he certainly won't bend backward even more so than your typical CCP leaders.

Tugger wrote:
Don't fool yourself, there is significant risk to China and their economy. They are not economically strong enough really since they are dependent on exports, and do not have a truly vibrant internal economy.


And to CCP, China has to win at all cost, b/c last thing CCP wants is internal turmoils due to the economic downturn, leading to CCP losing their iron fist grip on power. But...

einsteinboricua wrote:
2. Xi Jinping can lose his position as Chinese leader, but the move has to fail massively (even worse than the Great Leap Forward) for the CPC to remove Xi Jinping. Trump, however, faces an election in less than 16 months and Beijing can hit hard at his base (especially the farmers and factories in the Midwest) for that time in the hopes that Trump is defeated and a more pragmatic person (one who does not resort to tit-for-tats) is elected.


Basically Xi is playing stalling game anyway. Hit US economy enough and Trump is done as president, and once the Dems took power, just watch how quick Dems is going to sell out US just to earn more RMB (And I say this as somebody that doesn't even like Trump).
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:15 pm

Could an unintended positive outcome of a trade war be that Americans save more and/or pay down debt?
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:50 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
Could an unintended positive outcome of a trade war be that Americans save more and/or pay down debt?

No, unlikely.

We don't structure our economy that way. We don't want to pay for what we use and will cut our nose off to spite our face. We give too much away (essentially) without any proper funding in place to cover that. And no one is willing to compromise (which means raising taxes and cutting budgets).

So no, like the last time something got done, something will have to crash and we are desperate before anything even remotely gets done.

By the way, speaking of liking to give too much with no plan in place to pay.... Does anyone know exactly where the $12 billion in farm trade aid for 2018 and the $16 billion in assistance this year went to? Who received this aid and how much?

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:16 am

Well, US just announced China as a Currency Manipulator.

And to nobody's surprise, DJIA Futures is down almost 500 points as of this post.

Stockholders are up for yet another roller coaster ride.

P.S. Perhaps time to buy stock in a few days.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:18 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Well, US just announced China as a Currency Manipulator..


best bit: China is a currency manipulator for *not* interfering with market forces by converting some of their USD in RMB. ..... which would put pressure on the USD.

So, China is a currency manipulator because they don´t manipulate the US$ down.....

Can´t make that shit up....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Olddog
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:23 am

I enjoy the fact that Trump tries openly to manipulate the dollar with his pressures on the fed but complain when China just does it.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow breaks 27,000 for the first time ever

Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:12 pm

Olddog wrote:
I enjoy the fact that Trump tries openly to manipulate the dollar with his pressures on the fed but complain when China just does it.

The mantra with Republicans is that it's OK if the US does it (or someone the US approves of); it's not OK if someone else does.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."

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