SCQ83
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:21 pm

ltbewr wrote:
This is going to be another Timenan (sp) Square situation where the mainland government will go full brutal with 100's murdered, 1000's rounded up and sent to 'political re-education camps' to be murdered, the mainland government taking over HK, cutting off communications, putting in 'the great firewall' to keep out free speech, the press cut off and reporters arrested, no video showing the brutality allowed. The only thing that is holding the PRC government back is the need for the financial services buffer that Hong Kong serves. The Airport is shut down for all practical reality, and who knows for how long.


The difference is that now that China is a house of cards buried on loads of debt that is unable to pay to its creditors.

If this ends in some sort of Tiananmen Square, PRC can get a lot of backlash. Maybe it could be the black swan leading to the collapse of the Chinese economy and the next global recession.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:56 am

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... ion-mounts

I don't think these forces will be deployed though. In less than 3 weeks college classes resume and most of these protesters will dissapear from the streets.
short summary of every jewish holiday: they tried to kill us ,we won , lets eat !
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:01 am

SCQ83 wrote:
The difference is that now that China is a house of cards buried on loads of debt that is unable to pay to its creditors.


Well, that's why that just "borrow" something like 40B (I forgot the exact number) from HK treasury to fill their hole.

The entire Chinese economy is definitely build on debt and more debt, follow by bubbles in multiple sectors (Infrastructure, Real Estate, etc.). Well, I guess PRC can always print more RMB like US does :duck:
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:16 am

SCQ83 wrote:
The difference is that now that China is a house of cards buried on loads of debt that is unable to pay to its creditors.


Except this debt is not government debt, and it's denominated in RMB.

SCQ83 wrote:
If this ends in some sort of Tiananmen Square, PRC can get a lot of backlash. Maybe it could be the black swan leading to the collapse of the Chinese economy and the next global recession.


The only way it won't end in Tiananmen Square - if these protesters (end their leadership) realize this possibility and stop testing Chinese decisiveness. They do believe that Tiananmen option does work, and very well may move brute forces. Consequences of not doing so and let the situation spin out of control are by far more severe.
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:36 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Sadly to say, HK gov't incompetence is nothing new.

When nothing happens, things can operate about the incompetence. But when something happen (i.e. the current protest), their incompetence come all out. Seriously, the gov't could have solve this long time ago, but decided to be the enemy of the people instead.


Well, this is a tricky situation. First mistake HKG government did - was to give in to their demands. This can only make it worse. The proper course of action IMHO:
a) Sure, we can revise the law, but any action on it will be only after the situation returns to normal and lawful order is restored;
b) Decisions will be made in parliament and possibly on a legitimate referendum, and not on the streets.
c) Until then, the law remains in force, and will be used if Chinese authorities request someone. And Hong Kong authorities will fully cooperate with them.

Overall, this is a very complex situation, and it takes a lot of firmness and mastery in all government institutions to handle it without Tiananmen scenario.
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:39 am

c933103 wrote:
Other demands aren't that much easier for the central authority to accept.

Accepting any demands is a BIG mistake.

c933103 wrote:
Chinese government have already defined protest in Hong Kong as violent mobs trying to subvert the country by using riots, so if the government of Hong Kong stop calling some of the previous protests as riots, or release some of those protestors, that will be see as giving those people who try to subvert the country and damage national sovereignty a free pass and that will not happen.


The definition is absolutely correct.
 
c933103
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:57 am

According to news, today's check in service have also been closed
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
seat64k
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:57 am

anrec80 wrote:
Well, this is a tricky situation. First mistake HKG government did - was to give in to their demands.


They did not give in to any demands. Carrie Lam bumbled something about the bill being "dead" but she hasn't withdrawn it.

anrec80 wrote:
This can only make it worse. The proper course of action IMHO:


Proper action would be to stop acting like she's talking to 8 million idiots and withdraw the damn bill.
 
MSMinHKG
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:54 pm

anrec80 wrote:
The definition is absolutely correct.


Only if you're a wumao. I live in Hong Kong. I've seen, on live TV, starting at the time of the original protests, the police attacking otherwise peaceful protestors and passersby. Just this evening on the MTR, I saw pictures of tear-gas grenades being launched at civilians -- including kids! -- who had just come down to see what was going on outside of their homes. I used to live in Tai Koo and the video of police shoving people down the escalator in that station was sickening, as was the sight of them launching tear gas into Kwai Fong station. The protests were peaceful at the outset. The police escalated, not the protestors. I saw this for myself. And even the UN has now issued a statement condemning the tactics being used.

I'll admit, I think the protestors have made an enormous mistake by occupying the departure area of the airport this evening. The point has been made, and up until now they have mostly retained moral authority. The combat tactics used by the police have enraged the population (let's not forget, this is not just a bunch of pissed-off college students), as has the intransigence of the government. The protestors can come back from this, but there's a limit to how many times they can do really stupid crap on this scale before they start pissing the majority of the public off.
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:38 pm

seat64k wrote:
They did not give in to any demands. Carrie Lam bumbled something about the bill being "dead" but she hasn't withdrawn it.


Well - then she should not have “bumbled” anything, but stood firm and clear - law and order before anything. Like it or not.

seat64k wrote:
Proper action would be to stop acting like she's talking to 8 million idiots and withdraw the damn bill


Streets are not the place to decide which bills to withdraw, and which ones not to withdraw. For that - there are parliament and other forms of decision making, such as referendum. Gangs on the streets aren’t all Hong Kong people and do not represent anyone.
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:44 pm

MSMinHKG wrote:
Only if you're a wumao. I live in Hong Kong. I've seen, on live TV, starting at the time of the original protests, the police attacking otherwise peaceful protestors and passersby. Just this evening on the MTR, I saw pictures of tear-gas grenades being launched at civilians -- including kids! -- who had just come down to see what was going on outside of their homes.


I don’t know who “wumao” is, but I have never been referred to as one, so idk. But in any case - if there is non-compliance with requests of the police to leave, law violations, violence towards the police, resistance to the police - this is no longer a protest, it’s a law violation scene. There is nothing left to do with a peaceful protest obviously. Police in the country isn’t there to be beaten. That’s all.
 
c933103
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:47 pm

anrec80 wrote:
MSMinHKG wrote:
Only if you're a wumao. I live in Hong Kong. I've seen, on live TV, starting at the time of the original protests, the police attacking otherwise peaceful protestors and passersby. Just this evening on the MTR, I saw pictures of tear-gas grenades being launched at civilians -- including kids! -- who had just come down to see what was going on outside of their homes.


I don’t know who “wumao” is, but I have never been referred to as one, so idk. But in any case - if there is non-compliance with requests of the police to leave, law violations, violence towards the police, resistance to the police - this is no longer a protest, it’s a law violation scene. There is nothing left to do with a peaceful protest obviously. Police in the country isn’t there to be beaten. That’s all.

Well, what else can you do when they banned most protests?
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:12 pm

MSMinHKG wrote:
anrec80 wrote:
The definition is absolutely correct.


Only if you're a wumao. I live in Hong Kong. I've seen, on live TV, starting at the time of the original protests, the police attacking otherwise peaceful protestors and passersby. Just this evening on the MTR, I saw pictures of tear-gas grenades being launched at civilians -- including kids! -- who had just come down to see what was going on outside of their homes. I used to live in Tai Koo and the video of police shoving people down the escalator in that station was sickening, as was the sight of them launching tear gas into Kwai Fong station. The protests were peaceful at the outset. The police escalated, not the protestors. I saw this for myself. And even the UN has now issued a statement condemning the tactics being used.

I'll admit, I think the protestors have made an enormous mistake by occupying the departure area of the airport this evening. The point has been made, and up until now they have mostly retained moral authority. The combat tactics used by the police have enraged the population (let's not forget, this is not just a bunch of pissed-off college students), as has the intransigence of the government. The protestors can come back from this, but there's a limit to how many times they can do really stupid crap on this scale before they start pissing the majority of the public off.


Just FYI, anrec80 is a known pro-Russia troll on this forum. So there's no surprise that he's pro-authoritarian gov't, like the CCP regime. He's no wumao.

You're correct about the moral authority - so far the protesters were able to paint the police as "out of control" successfully. But pulling stupid stunts at the airport tonight (Whether you agree with the conspiracy theory that the "undercover" officers are the one instigating everything is another story) are just not helping their cause.

HKers ain't forgetting what happened in Yuen Long on 7/21, though - and that's complete police incompetence that would have brought down chief of police in pretty much everywhere else in the world. And they also ain't going to forget that the police literally just stand there with those Hokkien gangs in North Point occupying roads just as illegally as the protesters, or the Tsuen Wan gangs that are literally stabbing passerbys that they don't like.

Lastly, you need to realized that the police are taunted with chants pretty much everywhere they go - lower class public housing estate, middle class housing estate like Taikoo Shing or Whampoa Garden, etc., and by residents of all ages - ranging from your younger generation to uncles/aunties in their 50s/60s. Ultimately, even if they somehow crack down the protest and end that, the damage to the trust between HKers and police had been done, and it'll take years, if not decades, to recover that trust.

anrec80 wrote:
I don’t know who “wumao” is, but I have never been referred to as one, so idk. But in any case - if there is non-compliance with requests of the police to leave, law violations, violence towards the police, resistance to the police - this is no longer a protest, it’s a law violation scene. There is nothing left to do with a peaceful protest obviously. Police in the country isn’t there to be beaten. That’s all.


Beaten by who? Every single time it's police just rushing in, at times against a bunch of air, then when they arrest somebody, it's always just somebody that couldn't run away quick enough. Nevermind the fact that they have yet to arrest the worst offenders (Some of whom I do agree should be arrested).

And BS about the "non-compliance with requests". First, why should the local residents on the pedestrian path leave when they're literally just downstairs from their home? Second, often time you're talking about requesting people to leave, and 5 seconds later, the police are rushing in or start to shoot tear gas even though the protesters are often retreating. The police have rules and regulations regarding how they do things - they SHOULD be hold to a higher standard, period.
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:20 pm

I have wondered, how far the government will go in a city of 7.5 million people, can they use tanks, cannon, machine guns against such a human tide. A city of giant skyscrapers is a little different than Tienanmen Square. An Urban Warfare nightmare.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:37 pm

WarRI1 wrote:
I have wondered, how far the government will go in a city of 7.5 million people, can they use tanks, cannon, machine guns against such a human tide. A city of giant skyscrapers is a little different than Tienanmen Square. An Urban Warfare nightmare.


All we can do is watch - tough times for Hong Kongers.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:41 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
I have wondered, how far the government will go in a city of 7.5 million people, can they use tanks, cannon, machine guns against such a human tide. A city of giant skyscrapers is a little different than Tienanmen Square. An Urban Warfare nightmare.


All we can do is watch - tough times for Hong Kongers.



I do know I would not go there on any day of the week for sure. Imagine being there when the hammer comes down if they dare to start killing people. I would think business would start to leave or send employees out of there.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:58 pm

WarRI1 wrote:
I have wondered, how far the government will go in a city of 7.5 million people, can they use tanks, cannon, machine guns against such a human tide. A city of giant skyscrapers is a little different than Tienanmen Square. An Urban Warfare nightmare.


Only complete total idiots would actually come out to fight if the PLA really comes in, though. It'll be more like a dead city for awhile with nobody heading anywhere for at least a few days. The thing is, for all the talk about how "radical" some of the protesters are, it's not like they have a huge arsenal. PLA is there for psychological warfare but nothing else. This ain't even LA riot level of chaos right now.

The thing is, even HKPF knows better than using lethal firearm like AR-15 (Which they DO have).

On the other hand - I do expect more and more "secret" movement of Chinese police from nearby cities like Shenzhen or Guangzhou to join into HKPF to violently suppress the protest. One of the "hostage" at the airport last night is a Chinese police ("Gong On") from Shenzhen - and the thing is, he was caught red-handed trying to cause problem at the airport with his colleague. The only part I disagree is the fact that protesters holding him at the airport for 6 hours serves no purpose - his identity is blown already for one thing, so he's no longer a "useful" pawn.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:26 am

I suppose the Chinese Government could declare Martial Law in Hong Kong, set an evening curfew starting at say 9 PM ever night, and everyone who is still out at that hour will be shot instantly.
Protesters also should not be attacked, obviously, but simply be arrested. How difficult can it be to arrest say 100 protesters every day and immediately transport them to Mainland China and stick them in a re-education camp?

I am not saying I am in favor of this, but I seriously wonder what the China Government is waiting for.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:34 am

Dieuwer wrote:
I suppose the Chinese Government could declare Martial Law in Hong Kong, set an evening curfew starting at say 9 PM ever night, and everyone who is still out at that hour will be shot instantly.
Protesters also should not be attacked, obviously, but simply be arrested. How difficult can it be to arrest say 100 protesters every day and immediately transport them to Mainland China and stick them in a re-education camp?

I am not saying I am in favor of this, but I seriously wonder what the China Government is waiting for.


Look - while protests can get ugly, they are largely limited to weekend. HK 99% of the time is still running as normal - i.e. people are still working as normal (including OT until 12am), people are still dining out, shopping, etc. There's also a reason why curfew was still not imposed even now - HK is a city where people DO work until very late, and is certainly far from a ghost town even after 11pm, unlike 99.9% of US cities.

The only difference is actually the much reduced amount of mainland Chinese tourists - something that my relatives are certainly enjoying. No more having to fight through those crowd in TST or CWB just to go anywhere.

Ultimately, as MSMinHKG said - there's a higher chance that you get hurt by a police, either b/c they love their tear gas buffet, or just randomly rushing into a crowd in riot gear, than protesters. Now that massive protest is no longer possible at the airport, that reduced the chance of getting into crossfire even less for regular tourists. Well, unless you're wearing a helmet, using a gas mask, and wearing black shirt and walk into North Point...
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:48 am

c933103 wrote:
Well, what else can you do when they banned most protests?


It’s very possible that the protests are banned - but so what? There are a lot of things banned in this life. Underage sex is banned - but we aren’t asking “what else can pedophiles do?”. Many drugs are banned - we aren’t though raising our hands asking “what’s should crackheads do?”. Same here.

In a democratic society, there are plenty of legal ways people can express themselves. Elections is one of them - you vote for an MP or a party that would break out of this agreement. There are also referendums. But there are neither reason nor excuse to turn your city into a battleground.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:48 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I suppose the Chinese Government could declare Martial Law in Hong Kong, set an evening curfew starting at say 9 PM ever night, and everyone who is still out at that hour will be shot instantly.
Protesters also should not be attacked, obviously, but simply be arrested. How difficult can it be to arrest say 100 protesters every day and immediately transport them to Mainland China and stick them in a re-education camp?

I am not saying I am in favor of this, but I seriously wonder what the China Government is waiting for.


Look - while protests can get ugly, they are largely limited to weekend. HK 99% of the time is still running as normal - i.e. people are still working as normal (including OT until 12am), people are still dining out, shopping, etc. There's also a reason why curfew was still not imposed even now - HK is a city where people DO work until very late, and is certainly far from a ghost town even after 11pm, unlike 99.9% of US cities.

The only difference is actually the much reduced amount of mainland Chinese tourists - something that my relatives are certainly enjoying. No more having to fight through those crowd in TST or CWB just to go anywhere.

Ultimately, as MSMinHKG said - there's a higher chance that you get hurt by a police, either b/c they love their tear gas buffet, or just randomly rushing into a crowd in riot gear, than protesters. Now that massive protest is no longer possible at the airport, that reduced the chance of getting into crossfire even less for regular tourists. Well, unless you're wearing a helmet, using a gas mask, and wearing black shirt and walk into North Point...


Are you saying the Western media are hyping the protests enormously?
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:58 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
You're correct about the moral authority - so far the protesters were able to paint the police as "out of control" successfully. But pulling stupid stunts at the airport tonight (Whether you agree with the conspiracy theory that the "undercover" officers are the one instigating everything is another story) are just not helping their cause.



There is no moral authority anywhere in street fighting. At all. Violation of the law is the violation of the law. Nothing else. These “protesters” aren’t all Hong Kongsters. And they do not represent anyone. They aren’t all the “people”. Nobody mandated them to represent anyone anywhere.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:11 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Are you saying the Western media are hyping the protests enormously?


Not necessarily "hyping" it enormously - b/c things did get very chaotic at times. But one also has to keep in mind the density of HK, which means the chances of citizens getting caught in the crossfire is greatly increase (but is something that HKPF seems to just ignore nowaday, i.e. their tear gas buffet). Plus also keep in mind that HK is a VERY peaceful, VERY safe city before the protest - thus the definition of "chaotic" is definitely different.

Hack, even protests in mainland PRC can get much worse than one in Hong Kong (at least the one that's "allowed" by the gov't, such as the anti-Japan protest circa 2012).
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:13 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
And BS about the "non-compliance with requests". First, why should the local residents on the pedestrian path leave when they're literally just downstairs from their home? Second, often time you're talking about requesting people to leave, and 5 seconds later, the police are rushing in or start to shoot tear gas even though the protesters are often retreating. The police have rules and regulations regarding how they do things - they SHOULD be hold to a higher standard, period.


What exactly it is the police should do according to the law - there are courts, and not Molotov cocktails. And one more question - the airport is also “downstairs” of those who sit there?
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:09 am

And here is China certainly making conclusions from HK thingie:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1V2233
 
MSMinHKG
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:29 am

I think any attempt to frame the protests -- the peaceful marches and demonstrations as well as the ones that turned violent -- in terms of what is legal misses the point altogether. Hong Kong is not a democracy. It was a British colony and now it is a Special Administrative Region of China with a peculiar hybrid form of government. The Chief Executive is appointed via a small-circle selection process, not elected by the public. By default, this person must be a Beijing loyalist. The Legislative Council is a de facto parliament. Some seats are directly elected but many are not. They are made up of what is called "functional constituencies": representatives from various industry interests. This arrangement is at the root of the problems here. The government -- the CE in particular -- is forced to serve two interests: Beijing's as well as the 7.4 million people who live here. When it has become apparent that Beijing's interests are being served and the public's are not, major social problems will arise. That is what has happened here.

When the anti-extradition bill that started all of this was proposed, the initial march (the June 9 one with 1m people) was legally sanctioned. Protestors assembling around the HK Government complex afterward were attacked by the police and pepper sprayed. Demands to withdraw the bill were ignored, and the government took an overtly patronizing tone toward the protestors -- which was not well received in this city where some 80% of the population has a tertiary education. Subsequent events are well documented: the even larger (2m) march; the pattern of attacks by police on civilians, passersby, and the press; the ongoing concealment of police identities in these events; the storming of LegCo and the defacement of mainland Chinese emblems; the Yuen Long, Tsuen Wan, and North Point triad attacks; and so on. Yes, the airport protest absolutely got out of hand and was an egregious mistake. Some of the protestors are clearly losing the plot. From what I have been able to determine elsewhere online, they have collectively realized it and are discussing changes in tactics. This is not an issue of mob violence: it's a catastrophic failure of governance and policing.

You can dislike the protests all you want, but the HKPF and HKSAR government are not coming back from this. The police are despised and the government has lost any pretense of being able to function. Those things were self-inflicted, not brought on by the citizens in black.
 
c933103
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:50 am

anrec80 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Well, what else can you do when they banned most protests?


It’s very possible that the protests are banned - but so what? There are a lot of things banned in this life. Underage sex is banned - but we aren’t asking “what else can pedophiles do?”. Many drugs are banned - we aren’t though raising our hands asking “what’s should crackheads do?”. Same here.

In a democratic society, there are plenty of legal ways people can express themselves. Elections is one of them - you vote for an MP or a party that would break out of this agreement. There are also referendums. But there are neither reason nor excuse to turn your city into a battleground.

You touched the one of the core problem - that is, Hong Kong is not a democratic society, hence people doesn't get a chance to elect their government, and referendum is also illegal in Hong Kong.

anrec80 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
And BS about the "non-compliance with requests". First, why should the local residents on the pedestrian path leave when they're literally just downstairs from their home? Second, often time you're talking about requesting people to leave, and 5 seconds later, the police are rushing in or start to shoot tear gas even though the protesters are often retreating. The police have rules and regulations regarding how they do things - they SHOULD be hold to a higher standard, period.


What exactly it is the police should do according to the law - there are courts, and not Molotov cocktails. And one more question - the airport is also “downstairs” of those who sit there?

If the police were acting according to the law then past two days' protest at airport won't happen. According to the chief of police department, if polices that are suspected to be defying the law have to be suspended from their duty then half of all polices in the city need to be suspended.
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:51 pm

MSMinHKG wrote:
Yes, the airport protest absolutely got out of hand and was an egregious mistake. Some of the protestors are clearly losing the plot. From what I have been able to determine elsewhere online, they have collectively realized it and are discussing changes in tactics.


It was clearly a trap - but the protesters let their emotions take over their judgment (Which is exactly what protesters were accusing the police of doing in the first place). At least from what I'm reading online, the protesters are learning from that mistake.

Even blocking the entrance to the restricted area was a rash decision anyway - they want to shut down the airport like Monday, but simply doesn't have enough people to "congest" the departure area like Monday. Thus, they decided to block the entrance, and in turn, cross the line of tolerance that airport authority had been allowing - i.e. as long as you don't disturb the operation, the protesters can stay. Also, they lost their plot as they forgot the whole purpose of protesting at the airport - i.e. spread the message to an international audience. By blocking the entrance, they pissed off some of the people that sympathized with the protesters.

MSMinHKG wrote:
When the anti-extradition bill that started all of this was proposed, the initial march (the June 9 one with 1m people) was legally sanctioned. Protestors assembling around the HK Government complex afterward were attacked by the police and pepper sprayed. Demands to withdraw the bill were ignored, and the government took an overtly patronizing tone toward the protestors -- which was not well received in this city where some 80% of the population has a tertiary education. Subsequent events are well documented: the even larger (2m) march; the pattern of attacks by police on civilians, passersby, and the press; the ongoing concealment of police identities in these events; the storming of LegCo and the defacement of mainland Chinese emblems; the Yuen Long, Tsuen Wan, and North Point triad attacks; and so on. Yes, the airport protest absolutely got out of hand and was an egregious mistake. Some of the protestors are clearly losing the plot. From what I have been able to determine elsewhere online, they have collectively realized it and are discussing changes in tactics. This is not an issue of mob violence: it's a catastrophic failure of governance and policing.


You mistime the initial event a little bit:
June 9 - the initial large protest with 1M people. Only to see Carrie Lam respond with "The bill is still going ahead", thus, angered tons of HK people.
June 12 - The protest on the day which the bill was suppose to be read/"debated" in the legislature. The protesters assembled around the area where the legislature along with the gov't office, only to be tear gassed and pepper sprayed as the police moved in to "disperse" the crowd. There was also an incident where protesters had retreat into one of the office building (CITIC Tower) in the area, only to see the police pushing towards them, nearly causing a stampede. Further throwing fuel into fire, the police went into hospital to arrest some of the injured protesters.
June 15 - Carrie Lam announced "suspending" the bill. But it did not reduced the anger of HKers.
June 16 - The 2nd large protest with 2M (+1) people. IIRC they surrounded the gov't office area again afterward, although the crowd eventually dispersed peacefully.

The continuing police brutalities only fuel the protest more, culminating on July 21 during the Yuen Long incidents where a triad mob openly assault anyone in their path in the MTR Station with the police literally just either watching in the background, or walked away from. The police later assembled outside the walled villages where the white mobs are assembling, but didn't arrest anyone right there. That was when things got into the current "path of no return" anyway. Arresting a few of the white shirt mob after the fact was literally glossed over - especially when those white shirt mobs were charge with nothing more than "illegal assembly" even with multiple videos of them assaulting passerbys.

P.S. Tear Gas Buffet in Sham Shui Po again...
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:23 pm

c933103 wrote:

If the police were acting according to the law then past two days' protest at airport won't happen.


Yes - typical organized riot a-la Ukrainian Maidan narrative. Nothing new. “We are just peaceful protesters, and it’s all the police/regime/dictator/evil Russia/China fault”. I encourage you to look at the results of that fun. Loss of territories, economic destruction, poverty, mass emigration, corruption like never seen before. Then there is a divided and polarized society, where each neighbor hates and suspect the one next to him.

This is what happens when such things spin out of control and government isn’t decisive enough to suppress them.

We have some Hong Kong people here - if you think “this is not about us”, “we are different”, “this will not happen here” - think again. You aren’t any different, and it will happen. You will then regret that China didn’t stick in and repeated their Tiananmen experience.
 
seat64k
Posts: 493
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:59 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Just FYI, anrec80 is a known pro-Russia troll on this forum. So there's no surprise that he's pro-authoritarian gov't, like the CCP regime. He's no wumao.


pyatkopeyek perhaps :) Either ways, stop feeding the troll.

And to all the Americans/Europeans going on about how the government should deal with the protesters, do yourself a favour and look up how many countries have extradition treaties with China. And then look up why it's so few.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:42 pm

anrec80 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
If the police were acting according to the law then past two days' protest at airport won't happen.


Yes - typical organized riot a-la Ukrainian Maidan narrative. Nothing new. “We are just peaceful protesters, and it’s all the police/regime/dictator/evil Russia/China fault”. I encourage you to look at the results of that fun. Loss of territories, economic destruction, poverty, mass emigration, corruption like never seen before. Then there is a divided and polarized society, where each neighbor hates and suspect the one next to him.

This is what happens when such things spin out of control and government isn’t decisive enough to suppress them.

We have some Hong Kong people here - if you think “this is not about us”, “we are different”, “this will not happen here” - think again. You aren’t any different, and it will happen. You will then regret that China didn’t stick in and repeated their Tiananmen experience.


In your country the government wasn't decisive to suppress the protests in 1917 either, was that good or bad ? And in China in 1949 ?

People born in dictatorships and brainwashed from childhood still sometimes want freedom, people born in freedom rarely seek to lose it, it's quite simple really.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:51 pm

seat64k wrote:
pyatkopeyek perhaps Either ways, stop feeding the troll.


(Since my original reply was deleted...)
I still haven't figure out what this word mean. No, Yandex didn't help, either. :duck: :duck:

seat64k wrote:
And to all the Americans/Europeans going on about how the government should deal with the protesters, do yourself a favour and look up how many countries have extradition treaties with China. And then look up why it's so few.


Also, IMHO reading just the western media (i.e. CNN/Fox/BBC/whatever) alone doesn't really give one a full picture - they seems to be throwing out snippets here and there and usually focused on reports about major clashes between protesters and police. Seriously, they talk about the protesters in HK as if they're some crazy mob armed with guns and/or knives looting stores when they're not even close. :banghead: :banghead:
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:31 pm

Aesma wrote:
In your country the government wasn't decisive to suppress the protests in 1917 either, was that good or bad ? And in China in 1949 ?


Freedom, you know, in itself is too abstract thing. For example, communism was said to be “freedom from the Tsar and Tsarism”, so I just don’t buy this word in itself.

Speaking of 1917 - yes, the Tsar was soft and gentle. He also had a nickname of “Tsar the Floormat”. And 1917 put the beginning of 5 year long large scale bloodshed, in addition to WW1. And also, poverty, devastation and territorial losses.

So when someone says to me the word “freedom” - I usually ask “freedom to do what? What do you want to to and cannot?”. Freedom of movement? Freedom of entrepreneurship? Freedom of speech? Freedom of press? Pre-Maidan Ukraine, Russia were and are totally fine in this regards. China - press and speech may have some limits, but no issue otherwise. Even there - those who still want to read/blog/write will find their opportunities to do so.

Aesma wrote:
People born in dictatorships and brainwashed from childhood still sometimes want freedom, people born in freedom rarely seek to lose it, it's quite simple really.


Yes, I’ve lived through the transformation from communism to a complete freedom. You probably understand that you can’t spread freedom over a loaf of bread, replace a dinner with it. It won’t save you from elements. So in itself it’s good but nowhere close to enough.
 
c933103
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:50 pm

anrec80 wrote:
c933103 wrote:

If the police were acting according to the law then past two days' protest at airport won't happen.


Yes - typical organized riot a-la Ukrainian Maidan narrative. Nothing new. “We are just peaceful protesters, and it’s all the police/regime/dictator/evil Russia/China fault”. I encourage you to look at the results of that fun. Loss of territories, economic destruction, poverty, mass emigration, corruption like never seen before. Then there is a divided and polarized society, where each neighbor hates and suspect the one next to him.

This is what happens when such things spin out of control and government isn’t decisive enough to suppress them.

We have some Hong Kong people here - if you think “this is not about us”, “we are different”, “this will not happen here” - think again. You aren’t any different, and it will happen. You will then regret that China didn’t stick in and repeated their Tiananmen experience.

No, sone of what you said WILL certainly happen to Hong Kong as a consequence to these protests. But it will be even worse if no actions are to be taken.
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
seat64k
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:25 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
seat64k wrote:
pyatkopeyek perhaps Either ways, stop feeding the troll.

I still haven't figure out what this word mean. No, Yandex didn't help, either. :duck: :duck:

Same thing, I totally translated it directly, so it might not be colloquially correct.
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:09 am

c933103 wrote:
No, sone of what you said WILL certainly happen to Hong Kong as a consequence to these protests. But it will be even worse if no actions are to be taken.


Everyone everywhere says that, but after all the events unfold according to one and the same scenario. Regardless of country, culture, part of the world.
 
c933103
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:14 am

anrec80 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
No, sone of what you said WILL certainly happen to Hong Kong as a consequence to these protests. But it will be even worse if no actions are to be taken.


Everyone everywhere says that, but after all the events unfold according to one and the same scenario. Regardless of country, culture, part of the world.

What are you trying to say? I did not argue otherwise. Surely these protests will have negative impact on politics, economy, population, etc., but negative impact on the city in alternative scenario where no action is to be taken will be greater, as you can see what happens in the city economically and among the people after the government propose the policy but before large scale protests actually start. I said "some" in the post because Hong Kong is not a sovereignty territory and actions restricted in the city is not going to successfully trigger a regime change and as such there are no one in the city trying to pursue a regime change, despite China and media that do business with them trying to interpret some of those banner used in the protest that way in order to magnify the danger of the protest, hence I suspect the chance of some possible negative impacts you mentioned like corruption is going to apply, as no one is going to target the anti-corruption authority in the city government and they will continues to function after the protest, so is the entire government.
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:46 pm

Organisers say 1.7 million joined Hong Kong pro-democracy rally against police use of force, as protesters reiterate 5 demands.

So a peaceful protest, the police did let the protesters protests. Still worried though with the military might which has been put in place on the other side of the border.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:02 pm

Dutchy wrote:
So a peaceful protest, the police did let the protesters protests. Still worried though with the military might which has been put in place on the other side of the border.


When even the HKPF didn't come out this weekend, you REALLY think the Chinese Armed Police (It's NOT the PLA that's in Shenzhen) would just come down for no reason?

On a side note, a weekend of protest with zero tear gas fired. That haven't happen for awhile :white: .

The gov't will just continue to hide behind high walls and behind police either way, but how much can they govern is another thing. There are still a few controversial bills (i.e. The whole "Lantau Tomorrow" project that's consider a huge white elephant, and the "National Anthem Bill" that basically mean people can get fine/jailed for "not respecting" (i.e. booing) the Chinese National Anthem, something that has been done numerous time in sporting events with HK) that are scheduled to go through legislature whenever that restart, and while the gov't can again just ram those bills through (Just b/c pro-China has a majority in the legislature), I don't see how they can without causing more protests/ruckus/chaos.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
MSMinHKG
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:26 am

I was out there. It was a very long day and night.

The estimated 1.7m was only the ones who could make it to Victoria Park and be counted. Because there was not an official march route, it was a bit chaotic and many people turned back because they physically could not get there amid all the bodies and umbrellas. My partner and I turned back and walked all the way to Central with the crowd.

This image of a little girl leading the call-and-response slogans kind of sums it up for me (we were in the crowd nearby when someone else happened to film this): https://twitter.com/TszchingRegina/stat ... 6437212160
 
seat64k
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:11 pm

[quote="MSMinHKG"]The estimated 1.7m was only the ones who could make it to Victoria Park and be counted. Because there was not an official march route, it was a bit chaotic and many people turned back because they physically could not get there amid all the bodies and umbrellas. My partner and I turned back and walked all the way to Central with the crowd.[quote="MSMinHKG"]

Same here, we went around the back roads to join the crowd next to the library, and even that (normally 10 min walk from my apartment) took nearly two hours. When I got to Sogo, there was still a sea of people heading in the opposite direction trying to get to Victoria Park.

I thought my legs were tired but then I saw this poor woman:

Image
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:18 am

Well, protests near Kwun Tong area today, and of course, MTR just shut down most of the subway line in that area for almost no reason.

Well, I guess that way they won't have protesters surrounding MTR Station Office (i.e. Kwai Fong or Taikoo) for not doing enough to protect passengers' safety...by just not letting people getting into MTR stations in the first place.

You can't fix stupid. I seriously don't know how much more inept can the HK gov't (who is the largest stockholder in MTR) gets. To these days they still think by just avoiding the problem or hiding behind the police, the problem will just solve itself eventually.

As they say in Chinese, "Cutting one toenails to avoid (being bite) by sandworms"...oh well, inept gov't is inept.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:06 pm

Well...so far...

1. Shuts down the MTR line, then have the popo march down Kwun Tong Road while blocking all traffic. So much for protesters blocking roads?
2. Ok, things did get a little bit chaotic, but they could have easily confined that in the "inner" area of Kwun Tong (the industrial area) instead of pushing protesters out towards the arterial road (i.e. Kwun Tong Road).
3. TG Buffet in Wong Tai Sin, live at 9pm.
3b. I'm VERY surprise that the popo didn't position themselves right outside the Wong Tai Sin Station exits, Taikoo Station style.

Oh well, protest (that is approved) tomorrow in Kwai Chung/Tsuen Wan area. Predicting that MTR will just shut down the whole Tsuen Wan Line and also West Rail Line. Hack, people are crying about how the protesters block the MTR system for what? 30 mins? Meanwhile, Kwun Tong Line is still NOT back open even though the protesters are now in Wong Tai Sin.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:53 pm

Well...let's just say it finally hits home for my relative, with my brother living in the housing estate that just change the password to entry and blocked literally anyone wearing a black shirt from entering even though many of them are residents there. The residents then surround the management office for the whole day.

Well, up until 11:30pm, that is, when the police come out against the group of residents that are doing nothing but surrounding the management office. In the ensuing chaos they arrest a resident for no reason, and also just use pepper spray on a bunch of people that are doing nothing but yelling slogans (My brother was affected somewhat since he was standing up front, he's safe back in his apartment now).

And people still think it's just "violent" protesters? Or some "misguided youth"? The gov't is pissing off more and more residents from all walks every single day, with no end in sight.

Needless to say, where my brother lives was one of the last place where I thought would be affected (since it's somewhat isolated from main arterial roads nor it's anywhere close to the path of any popo station or MTR station), can't even say THAT anymore.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:27 pm

Well, after a break for about a week, all hells broke loose again, with police for the first time firing their gun (albeit a warning shot towards the air). The "radical" protesters are certainly being more aggressive by taking the action directly to the police instead of just sit back and wait.

My whole point still stand - all these violence against violence is just not going to lead to any solutions. Meanwhile, the gov't is still, well, to me doing nothing other than just letting the police (along with probably frontline customer representatives from MTR) taking the blunt of the impact.

Quite frankly, there are only two end games left - the gov't finally solve the problem politically instead of hiding behind police, or the HKPF (along with possibly PLA/Chinese Armed Police) increase their force even further and violently suppress the protest. The second is definitely not desirable and will lead to some very bad consequences for HK, but the first is still NOT happening with people like Carrie Lam still thinking that they can just stall this out (I mean, look at her so-call "Creating a platform for conversation" - while she appears in the public for what? Once a week? And whenever a reporter ask about when will actions get done, there is never an answer. Hack, she even just let another person, Dr. Ronald Leung Ding Bong, slowly do "investigation" when any actions need to be swift and urgent, instead of Carrie Lam taking the leadership to do something literally RIGHT NOW!

Seriously, if she is really "tired" like she said yesterday, just resign from your job as Chief Executive of HK. Absolutely no leadership during this time of crisis, and this is a crisis that she created in the first place (i.e. things would have been solved, LONG LONG TIME AGO, if she withdrawn the bill around June/early July).
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:40 pm

History has taught us that when government turns against its own people, the smartest thing to do is to leave immediately. Not stay and fight, but leave.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:47 am

Dieuwer wrote:
History has taught us that when government turns against its own people, the smartest thing to do is to leave immediately. Not stay and fight, but leave.


Where to, though?

Side note - immigration application from HK to Taiwan had been increasing for the past few months by something like 20% YoY. It is still not in huge number, but you can’t say those that can leave are not looking for a possible exit. Canada and Australia both remain top destination otherwise.

The problem? The one that are most affected (i.e. the youth) simply does not have the mean to immigrate anywhere. And it is not like they can just go request asylum, either, as if those will be granted unless you are “useful” for the other country.

P.S. God bless President Tsai, and hope she can kick that commie-wannabe Han back to Kaohsiung or better, kick him to mainland where he belongs, during the upcoming Taiwan presidential election.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
QANTAS077
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:29 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Seriously, if she is really "tired" like she said yesterday, just resign from your job as Chief Executive of HK. Absolutely no leadership during this time of crisis, and this is a crisis that she created in the first place (i.e. things would have been solved, LONG LONG TIME AGO, if she withdrawn the bill around June/early July).


The protesters really need to tighten the screws and force the situation, hard..they need to bring it right to the heart of HK island and TST and force her hand, start really upping the ante like they do in Europe.

I was in HK a few weeks back and caught some of the mid-week protests and there is definitely an uneasy feeling that I'd never felt in the previous visits to HK.

How Lam can knowingly stay on in her role, or how she thinks she can, is beyond me..I'd love to know what possessed her to come up with this extradition bill in the first place because it was always going to be a hand grenade issue.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:16 am

QANTAS077 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Seriously, if she is really "tired" like she said yesterday, just resign from your job as Chief Executive of HK. Absolutely no leadership during this time of crisis, and this is a crisis that she created in the first place (i.e. things would have been solved, LONG LONG TIME AGO, if she withdrawn the bill around June/early July).


The protesters really need to tighten the screws and force the situation, hard..they need to bring it right to the heart of HK island and TST and force her hand, start really upping the ante like they do in Europe.

I was in HK a few weeks back and caught some of the mid-week protests and there is definitely an uneasy feeling that I'd never felt in the previous visits to HK.

How Lam can knowingly stay on in her role, or how she thinks she can, is beyond me..I'd love to know what possessed her to come up with this extradition bill in the first place because it was always going to be a hand grenade issue.


The extradition bill originate from the fact that a HKer killed his girlfriend in Taiwan, then fled back to HK. As-is technically HK gov’t can’t extradite him to Taiwan, and thus, this is the beginning of this mess.

The main problem started as Carrie Lam would not be willing to just expand the extradition treaty to just Taiwan - bc it would otherwise “imply” that Taiwan is separate from China (something that mainland Chinese gov’t won’t ever accept). Thus, when she proposed to expand the extradition treaty, she included Taiwan, Macau, and mainland China.

Not surprisingly, putting mainland China on the list is a huge grenade, and create uncertainties not just among the pan-democracy camp, but also among some businesspeople - bc they are base in HK right now, instead of basing their business in China, only bc they know they have a system in HK to fall back on as it is “rule by law”, instead of the arbitrary, “rule by people” Chinese court. There was a few “concessions” mainly targeting the businesspeople, but not so much the ordinary citizens.

I don’t disagree with you otherwise on the tactic - while the original idea of “spreading the protest to all 18 districts” was suppose to raise awareness, it also make the protest lost its focal point at times. The idea of having battles between police and protesters in the middle of a residential neighborhood create the chaos (and those images of chaos) that you see anyway.

Personally I do advocate taking it directly to the govt every single time, instead of “wasting” energy and resources on those battles far away from where govt really cares (plus govt can also claim how the protesters are “affecting the daily life of others living in that area” as part of their propaganda).

Needless to say, I have certainly never seen “kai fongs” (your local neighborhood residents) everywhere, from lower class neighborhood like Sham Shui Po, to middle class neighborhood like Whampoa Garden and Taikoo Shing, all yelling “hak shue wui” (Cantonese for “black society” aka triads) at the police. Such mistrust would take decades to heal.

The bottom line is, HK is heavily divided, but HK is also still very united.

P.S. How does nobody even step down by now is beyond me - but then, you wonder why the protests get worse and worse - it is exactly bc the govt is not taking any responsibility, and only want to shut down the opposing voice.

IMHO, even if the govt arrest everybody, that is still not going to do squat. There is no path forward for governance anyway. Long term economic effect is dired also - there is no way international business won’t think twice when they invest in HK if all the govt does is just continuing to “shoot the messenger” while not having any intention to solve the problem.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
anrec80
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:30 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
History has taught us that when government turns against its own people, the smartest thing to do is to leave immediately. Not stay and fight, but leave.


But in practice very few of those “freedom lovers” actually leave, and it’s the same everywhere. They know that they won’t get the same standard of living elsewhere. Russia’s example Navalny and Sobol. They don’t since in Russia he is an “opposition leader”, she is a prominent lawyer (and also an “opposition member”). Who will they be in the USA and what awaits for them? Construction workers or Uber drivers at best.

Same with Hong Kong’s Joshua Wong. There he is an “opposition leader”. Who will he be in the USA? He doesn’t know anything other than how to fight the regime and stage protests. There is no demand for this in the USA. And they don’t have any other in-demand skills. Furthermore, I will not be surprised if USA authorities are in fact careful about granting them a visa.

So USSR in 1970s was smart about their “dissidents” - they were just allowed to leave without any right to come back. Which turned out to be a very efficient and severe penalty - those people were prominent at home, and went all the way to the social bottom in the new country. Brighton Beach here in NYC is full of these stories.

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