seat64k
Posts: 461
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:48 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:42 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
6. Last note - the chances of one getting injured by the "violent protesters" remain extremely low (Unless you're a popo, then good luck), but with the police trying to disperse crowd at times with zero tactics, one can be caught in a "crossfire" and get injured by the police.


Unless you insert yourself in the front line of one of the protests - and given where they are taking place, this would take some deliberate effort - I think the chance of getting bothered (let alone injured) by protesters is effectively nil. You have a higher chance of getting hassled by a drunk outside a pub at 11:00 am in London. I'd probably stay out of the way of police in riot gear. They seem much more likely to lash out.

MSMinHKG wrote:
The government has just given a press conference on the situation, and from what I caught of it, more or less guaranteed the protests will continue. I believe a reporter from the SCMP basically asked the CE whether she realized she had missed the point of the protests entirely.


She seems to be even more of a puppet than CY was. I cannot imagine she doesn't understand the issues. It's more like she's just standing back and letting things getting out of hand, until China inevitably steps in. And that would be bad for everyone involved. Including her, unless her inaction is a direct order.

MSMinHKG wrote:
1. If you need to choose a hotel away from likely epicenters, ........ On the Island side, consider places in North Point and Tai Koo.


I'll second this. The protests on the island side generally *start* in Victoria park - between Tin Hau and Causeway Bay - but there really isn't any drama. Just crowding. Anything from Causeway Bay and further east will be absolutely fine.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:33 pm

seat64k wrote:
Unless you insert yourself in the front line of one of the protests - and given where they are taking place, this would take some deliberate effort - I think the chance of getting bothered (let alone injured) by protesters is effectively nil. You have a higher chance of getting hassled by a drunk outside a pub at 11:00 am in London. I'd probably stay out of the way of police in riot gear. They seem much more likely to lash out.


I'll add on - it's more like you can VERY easily avoid the "front line". Just use common sense (i.e. if you see a bunch of people wearing black shirts throwing bricks, just leave).

seat64k wrote:
She seems to be even more of a puppet than CY was. I cannot imagine she doesn't understand the issues. It's more like she's just standing back and letting things getting out of hand, until China inevitably steps in. And that would be bad for everyone involved. Including her, unless her inaction is a direct order.


I seriously don't know whether she's really waiting for China to inevitably steps in (b/c she has to realized that that's the end of HK right there), or she seriously has zero political IQ (Unlike CY...his political IQ is dangerously high) by now. Her underlings are all just as incompetent anyway.

Yossarian22 wrote:
I’m a tourist in Hong Kong at the moment.

A march of blackshirts just passed by. They were very peaceful. They even stopped to let pedestrians cross the street.

I chatted with a couple of them in a connivence store, and thanked them for their courage.

The protestors are peaceful, the police are violent.

If you see a crowd of protestors coming by, try and make sure you have an out. If you her police sirens, GTFO as quickly as possible.


Indeed. At max you're talking about 10-20 protesters that are "violent", and even then, they only target police.

Hack, some old uncles of HK want to start fights left and right, but most of the time the protesters just held him (for the safety of others) and chase him away. Imagined if this is US, those old uncles would have got murdered by now.

SCQ83 wrote:
I have only visited once HKG a few years ago and I felt the most dystopian place I have ever been to.

The urban density, speculation and low-quality of life for the average worker is like nothing I have seen anywhere else. HK has the least affordable housing market in the world by a wide margin.

Probably this could partially off-set with a booming economy (thanks to China) and some freedoms compared to their mainland peers. But now with the world/Asian/Chinese economy cooling down and China taking away some freedoms, the whole thing is unsurprisingly starting to collapse.


The low quality of life is part of the issues anyway - imagined having to live in a crowded space, have to fight off crowd to get on MTR/bus, or shopping (Thanks, idiot mainland parallel traders), get paid peanuts for work, then go back home to more crowded space. Repeat this every single day, and you wonder why the frustrations are so high - the pressure pot is real (Think Ideal Gas Law...Volume remain the same if not smaller, Pressure increase = Temperature increase = Explosion you're seeing right now).

MSMinHKG wrote:
I believe a reporter from the SCMP basically asked the CE whether she realized she had missed the point of the protests entirely.


It is indeed the reporter from SCMP. To nobody surprise, she just dodge that question and loop back to "all these violent protesters".

P.S. For those in HK right now, stay safe. It's definitely chaotic out there tonight, to absolutely nobody's surprise with Carrie Lam's lack of response
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:40 pm

MSMinHKG wrote:
If you need to choose a hotel away from likely epicenters, consider the corridor from TST to Whampoa. There have been some protests in Kowloon, but not as many, and hotels like the Kerry and Harbour Plaza are kind of isolated but still close in and convenient. (I'm not a representative for these, but I lived over there until last week.) On the Island side, consider places in North Point and Tai Koo.

seat64k wrote:
I'll second this. The protests on the island side generally *start* in Victoria park - between Tin Hau and Causeway Bay - but there really isn't any drama. Just crowding. Anything from Causeway Bay and further east will be absolutely fine.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ement-live
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/08/05/c ... rth-point/

Looks like North Point area is not THAT safe either. Of course, North Point area is known for its large Hokkien (Fujian) population that are heavily pro-gov't and pro-China.

Taikoo is fine on Island side (Although access to CBD i.e. Central/Admiralty can be disrupted). Tung Chung (next to airport) is definitely safe (b/c of the fact that there's only one way in and out of the area = protesters are not going to go in there b/c if shit happens they don't have many routes to leave the area). Kwun Tong area along with Tseung Kwan O (Both are places where my relatives live in) are also ok, but far from CBD (Unless you're doing business in the Kowloon East area), nor there are many hotel options.

Sigh...we're seriously running out of areas where there are no disruptions. On the other hand, just be aware of the situation and you should be fine (B/c, even with all the fightings and disruptions, areas in HK are still 10x safer than many 'hoods in some US cities).

Side note - it IS almost like a warzone out there tonight. The police, "kai fongs" (Ordinary citizens), Black shirt protesters, White shirt triad mobs...I'm losing track myself b/c of escalating situations in so many places.

Oh, and Carrie Lam is probably sitting in her office laughing at them fighting each other :white:
 
SCQ83
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:01 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
The low quality of life is part of the issues anyway - imagined having to live in a crowded space, have to fight off crowd to get on MTR/bus, or shopping (Thanks, idiot mainland parallel traders), get paid peanuts for work, then go back home to more crowded space. Repeat this every single day, and you wonder why the frustrations are so high - the pressure pot is real (Think Ideal Gas Law...Volume remain the same if not smaller, Pressure increase = Temperature increase = Explosion you're seeing right now)


Indeed. I don't see any difference between this and the "Gilets Jaunes" in France or the 15M in Spain. Average people get tired of their lives and feel like there is nothing to lose. In this case China is the escape.

As to compare it to Beijing as other poster mentioned, IMO it is like apples to oranges. Hong Kong has been a wealthy, developed place for decades. So locals can compare. Like in many developed economies (Europe, Japan or the US), I am pretty sure educated millennials have a much tougher life than somebody with a degree now in their 50 or 60s (buying a flat, starting a family, getting a well paid job). So they can compare.

China is (still) an emerging economy so what people can compare to? How their parents starved in the countryside?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:22 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Indeed. I don't see any difference between this and the "Gilets Jaunes" in France or the 15M in Spain. Average people get tired of their lives and feel like there is nothing to lose. In this case China is the escape.


Well, while both HK protests and "Gilets Jaunes" were triggered by a proposed law, the parallel kind of stop there.

Yes, the youths are forefront b/c they feel like they have nothing to lose. On the other hand, the current protests doesn't really have to do with livelihood, but rather, the youth are fighting against what they perceived as a system that's totally stacked against them - i.e. lack of representation, crony capitalism (sounds familiar? Yep, tons of US youths feel the same), and to lesser extent, uncertainties in their future (the "50 years no change" pact is expiring in 28 years. By then the older generation are well, really old; but the younger generation? They would just be in 40s or 50s. Then there's also their children.

The counter-argument has always been how the youth "don't want to work for anything", "lazy", "basically want things to be their way or the highway" (Again, sounds familiar? B/c you can hear the same counter-argument in US about the millennials). But the truth is, right now the gov't wants "their way or the highway", think they know it all. The older generation, meanwhile, benefits from a booming economy of yesteryear (Again, sounds familiar? B/c it's often the argument that millennials in US are making against Boomer/Gen X), where the older generation can feed a family easily just by having 1 person (usually the "dad") working.

Oh, to make things even more parallel with US, you got the mainland immigrants being "scapegoated" at times, and you hear things like "lazy moochers" (public housing and welfare) (Sounds familiar? Yep, that's the very common argument against illegal immigration, and to lesser extent, legal immigration, in US), and that further increase the "hatred" of HK youth against mainland China.

In another word, it's first world problem, and a problems that many first world nations are facing - youths feeling excluded, ignored, and ultimately, has to look for a valve to release that pressure. Those are your most "violent" protesters anyway.

Now, not all protesters fit that profile 100%. I'm anything but a disaffected youth (I'm one of those "educated millennials" that work in tech sectors), and I don't even live in HK right now (Just b/c I was born there only mean so much), but simply know better than to trust the mainland gov't. People like me actually forms the majority of the opposition anyway. But as usual, the loudest person are being heard, and thus, the focus is all on the "violent" protesters but not the silent majority like me who's simply tired of the gov't being so inept and not wanting to solve problem, but rather, only throw more fuels into fires.

SCQ83 wrote:
As to compare it to Beijing as other poster mentioned, IMO it is like apples to oranges. Hong Kong has been a wealthy, developed place for decades. So locals can compare. Like in many developed economies (Europe, Japan or the US), I am pretty sure educated millennials have a much tougher life than somebody with a degree now in their 50 or 60s (buying a flat, starting a family, getting a well paid job). So they can compare.


The only thing I would say about Beijing, or mainland China in general, is that their youths has the mindset of people in 50s/60s of a first world country, simply b/c they're born into a place that has an economy that's growing crazily (the current slowdown aside), where they don't have to work 3x as hard but are call "not tough enough", "lazy" by the older generation. To nobody's surprise, the mainland youths (at least the majority of them) don't exactly even understand why HK youths are protesting, and feels like all the HK youths are doing right now is "destroying everything in HK", how the HK youths were "born in a rich place but want to just ruin it all" (Of course, remember mainland China is also the same place where people think "Money can buy everything"...including the laws), etc.
 
MSMinHKG
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:27 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/08/05/c ... rth-point/

Looks like North Point area is not THAT safe either. Of course, North Point area is known for its large Hokkien (Fujian) population that are heavily pro-gov't and pro-China.

Taikoo is fine on Island side (Although access to CBD i.e. Central/Admiralty can be disrupted). Tung Chung (next to airport) is definitely safe (b/c of the fact that there's only one way in and out of the area = protesters are not going to go in there b/c if shit happens they don't have many routes to leave the area). Kwun Tong area along with Tseung Kwan O (Both are places where my relatives live in) are also ok, but far from CBD (Unless you're doing business in the Kowloon East area), nor there are many hotel options.

Sigh...we're seriously running out of areas where there are no disruptions. On the other hand, just be aware of the situation and you should be fine (B/c, even with all the fightings and disruptions, areas in HK are still 10x safer than many 'hoods in some US cities).

Side note - it IS almost like a warzone out there tonight. The police, "kai fongs" (Ordinary citizens), Black shirt protesters, White shirt triad mobs...I'm losing track myself b/c of escalating situations in so many places.

Oh, and Carrie Lam is probably sitting in her office laughing at them fighting each other :white:


Yeah, I think we're out of districts with no protests/disruptions. What happened in North Point shocked me, but I've known as long as I've lived here that the aforementioned Hokkien/Fujianese community was there. My partner's family lives in that part of town, and his sister had to get home through that melee. There were white shirts in Tseung Kwan O, Tuen Mun, and Tsuen Wan, apparently. I've read that there's a protest scheduled for Tung Chung. The police have started tear-gassing during the day as well. It happened yesterday while we were near Admiralty, but fortunately were still far enough from it not to be affected. At this point, all that's left to do is to reiterate the advice above. The marches themselves tend to be peaceful. The confrontations at police stations, not so much. And the police here have disgraced themselves. There's no other, more diplomatic way to put it.
 
melpax
Posts: 1898
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:45 am

Expats starting to prepare to leave....

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/au ... 52ef9.html

Apparently around 100K Australians living in HK - there would be many more with permanent residency status also, so there could be a flood coming back if things go further south....
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
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fallap
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:20 am

melpax wrote:
Expats starting to prepare to leave....

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/au ... 52ef9.html

Apparently around 100K Australians living in HK - there would be many more with permanent residency status also, so there could be a flood coming back if things go further south....


Ahh, just like Shanghai in the years following the CCP victory of 1949. History repeats itself, it probably won't be long before PLA tanks flood into HK.
Ex grease monkey buried head to toe inside an F-16M
Now studying Political Science
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:33 pm

fallap wrote:
Ahh, just like Shanghai in the years following the CCP victory of 1949. History repeats itself, it probably won't be long before PLA tanks flood into HK.


Come on now, didn't you watch that video of Shenzhen Public Safety Officer (Whatever those are call) using swords to fight back "protesters"?

Plus PRC needs HK to exchange their black money into USD. What is their other choice? Macau? Macau is just not big enough.

MSMinHKG wrote:
Yeah, I think we're out of districts with no protests/disruptions. What happened in North Point shocked me, but I've known as long as I've lived here that the aforementioned Hokkien/Fujianese community was there. My partner's family lives in that part of town, and his sister had to get home through that melee. There were white shirts in Tseung Kwan O, Tuen Mun, and Tsuen Wan, apparently. I've read that there's a protest scheduled for Tung Chung. The police have started tear-gassing during the day as well. It happened yesterday while we were near Admiralty, but fortunately were still far enough from it not to be affected. At this point, all that's left to do is to reiterate the advice above. The marches themselves tend to be peaceful. The confrontations at police stations, not so much. And the police here have disgraced themselves. There's no other, more diplomatic way to put it.


I'll use the police way to describe the police..."I can't find the right word right now".

There were white shirts in Tsuen Wan, and a passerby did got stabbed in the arm (although relatively minor injury). One of those white shirt "uncle" got beaten by black shirts after the white shirt "uncle" thought he's Ip Man and can fight 10 person at a time (Ok...only 4 IIRC).
 
seat64k
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:43 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Looks like North Point area is not THAT safe either.


Yeah, that comment didn't age well :(

zakuivcustom wrote:
Of course, North Point area is known for its large Hokkien (Fujian) population that are heavily pro-gov't and pro-China.


Doesn't help that China has gone from being widely suspected of putting the white shirt asshats up to it, to doing it overtly via a press statement.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Sigh...we're seriously running out of areas where there are no disruptions.


I can think of a few but I won't mention - 五毛s be watching...

melpax wrote:
Expats starting to prepare to leave....

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/au ... 52ef9.html

Apparently around 100K Australians living in HK - there would be many more with permanent residency status also, so there could be a flood coming back if things go further south....


I don't think many people - either outside Hong Kong or inside - realise that a very large portion of "western" expats are first generation immigrants born to Hong Kong parents who emigrated. They're skilled, they speak Canto, they often speak Mandarin vastly better than the average Hong Konger, they're exceptionally good with bridging between Hong Kong/China and the outside world. It would be an absolute shame to lose them.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:53 pm

seat64k wrote:
I can think of a few but I won't mention - 五毛s be watching...


They're no longer Wumaos. Didn't you know that their pay per post is reduced to Sanmao (30 cents) now? :duck: :duck:

https://www.facebook.com/GETGREEEN/post ... 326688393/

seat64k wrote:
Doesn't help that China has gone from being widely suspected of putting the white shirt asshats up to it, to doing it overtly via a press statement.


But they certainly didn't pay enough. Those Fujian gang got their a** handed to them by the protesters easily :white:

seat64k wrote:
I don't think many people - either outside Hong Kong or inside - realise that a very large portion of "western" expats are first generation immigrants born to Hong Kong parents who emigrated. They're skilled, they speak Canto, they often speak Mandarin vastly better than the average Hong Konger, they're exceptionally good with bridging between Hong Kong/China and the outside world. It would be an absolute shame to lose them.


And HK gov't is doing their best to make sure a brain drain happen in HK. They are literally treating a whole generation of people as enemy, as if all those mainlanders will just come to HK to "replace" them. Guess what? The talented mainland youths had long move to places like US or UK or well, Australia (and spread their nationalistic BS there). Hong Kong? Who do they think they are?

melpax wrote:
Expats starting to prepare to leave....

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/au ... 52ef9.html

Apparently around 100K Australians living in HK - there would be many more with permanent residency status also, so there could be a flood coming back if things go further south....


And Australia just increase the travel warning to "High Degree of Caution" for HK
https://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/ ... _kong.aspx

P.S. More arbitrary arrests by police right now in Shum Shui Po. Between saying a laser pointer is a weapon, to just arresting a bunch of regular joes just for standing there, this is getting totally ridiculous. Oh, and again, Carrie Lam is probably laughing at while citizens are getting hurt. Seriously, do the gov't really want to have a 17-districts (People's Republic of Yuen Long is excluded on purpose) "Kai Fong" Revolution?
P.S. All I'll say is, do not trust the police at Hong Kong anymore. And for "westerners", seriously don't think the police will be of any help with their absolutely awful English and willingness to just arrest anybody that they don't like
P.S. All these arbitrary arrests, and the gov't still wonder why the people are against the extradition treaty? What's next? Arbitrary detentions? Show trials?
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Pyrex
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:54 pm

Methinks the people in Hong Kong are about to get a first-hand lesson on why the 2nd Amendment is so important. I just hope others are willing to learn anything from it.
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:50 pm

Considering their opposition can mobilize millions upon millions of soldiers, I don't think an armed citizenry would help in this situation, unless the end goal is a massacre.

What I don't understand about the situation is what does the government/China wants. If HK becomes just another Chinese city, then China would lose a lot.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:41 pm

Aesma wrote:
Considering their opposition can mobilize millions upon millions of soldiers, I don't think an armed citizenry would help in this situation, unless the end goal is a massacre.

What I don't understand about the situation is what does the government/China wants. If HK becomes just another Chinese city, then China would lose a lot.


Yeah...suggesting that arming citizens and letting them having an uprising is just a joke.

As for the gov't - they're basically playing stalling tactics, believing that HKers with their short memories would just eventually get tired and forget about everything, which is essentially their tactics of "winning" the Umbrella Movements in 2014.

What they don't realized is that the opposition this time is a LOT larger, the protesters have a totally different tactics (no centralized force unlike last time), and communication nowaday is a lot more advanced even compare to 2014 (i.e. live streams, quick communications via forums/messaging apps, etc.). The increasingly movement towards "using violence to solve everything" by the gov't is not going to win over people's heart, either.

Last note - CCP fully know letting HK becoming another Chinese city is a huge loss, hence why they haven't do stupid things like sending in PLA yet, and for a long time, not openly meddling in the governance (what's happening behind the scene, well, is another story). PRC is certainly increasing their propaganda battle, though. Those videos of Shenzhen Public Safety Officers "practicing" against mock protesters are not a coincidence.
 
c933103
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:40 pm

Aesma wrote:
What I don't understand about the situation is what does the government/China wants. If HK becomes just another Chinese city, then China would lose a lot.

For now, the governments (both local and Beijing) want the local population to continue living their life as if nothing have happened by using threats and also hopes that the protest would escalate to a point where the general public no longer find it worthy to participate in, and they also want to isolate those who are more active in the protest and "punish" them, in order to re-stabilize the city and make similar events more difficult to happen in the future.
It is indeed true that China have much to lose if Hong Kong become "just another Chinese city". However, Beijing would rather lost all that, than to bear the risk that the city might no longer under their control, or even being used by people there to affect and shaken their rule and "sovereignty" (read: ownership) on the entirety of the mainland China.
Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:58 pm

c933103 wrote:
For now, the governments (both local and Beijing) want the local population to continue living their life as if nothing have happened by using threats and also hopes that the protest would escalate to a point where the general public no longer find it worthy to participate in, and they also want to isolate those who are more active in the protest and "punish" them, in order to re-stabilize the city and make similar events more difficult to happen in the future.


Adding on - it's clear that the gov't wants to "divide" the protesters, i.e. the "violent" protesters vs. "peaceful" protesters. Just look at their choice of words like "A small amount of violent protesters do this and that". Eventually, once they divide the protesters enough, then it's easier to "control". In addition, once school started in Sept. 1, they would hope that the youths won't have as much time being on the street all the time - hence the continuing stalling.

What they don't realized is that the public opinion is stacked against them this time around much more so than 2014. Yes, you still got the pro-gov't idiots that watch too much CCTVB, but from what I've seen during the past week, you also start to have more and more "kai fongs" (Local citizens that live in the area where protest was occurring) of literally all ages (Including those "Uncles" and "C-9 [Nine]" (Housewives)) cursing out at the police. The grassroot movement would be needed for the protest to be successful.

Ultimately, though, even if the whole protests fail again like Umbrella Movements, they can only dream that such future events would be more difficult. Granted, pro-dem was definitely hurt badly after 2014 in which they lost quite a bit of power and voice in the gov't. But hey, in the darkest of time (B/c, quite frankly, being a pro-Dem does suck for the past few years), it only took yet another unpopular bill to re-ignite the whole pro-democracy movement. The pro-Dem might as well face yet another few years of dark time if the protest fail, but it certainly doesn't take much to rekindle that fire.

c933103 wrote:
It is indeed true that China have much to lose if Hong Kong become "just another Chinese city". However, Beijing would rather lost all that, than to bear the risk that the city might no longer under their control, or even being used by people there to affect and shaken their rule and "sovereignty" (read: ownership) on the entirety of the mainland China.


Well, it would depend how much money CCP has "stored" in Hong Kong. But it definitely won't be pretty if BJ decides to take a even more heavy-hand approach. It's a "lose-lose-lose" situation (BJ lose not only b/c CCP can no longer funnel money through HK, but things like trade with places like US/Europe are likely to come to a halt, thus further hurting Chinese economy; HK economy will be hurt badly as the money will be withdrawn from the city, with HK losing its international financial center status quicker; Ordinary HK people will suffer badly as BJ will surely clamped things down further, and possibly make HK feel more like Xinjiang)
 
Pyrex
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:28 am

Aesma wrote:
Considering their opposition can mobilize millions upon millions of soldiers, I don't think an armed citizenry would help in this situation, unless the end goal is a massacre.

What I don't understand about the situation is what does the government/China wants. If HK becomes just another Chinese city, then China would lose a lot.


Yes, I am sure all those tanks, aircraft and artillery the PRC has would be very useful in a tight quarters Urban warfare environment...
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:43 am

Pyrex wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Considering their opposition can mobilize millions upon millions of soldiers, I don't think an armed citizenry would help in this situation, unless the end goal is a massacre.

What I don't understand about the situation is what does the government/China wants. If HK becomes just another Chinese city, then China would lose a lot.


Yes, I am sure all those tanks, aircraft and artillery the PRC has would be very useful in a tight quarters Urban warfare environment...


Which would destroy any economic advantage administration of HK brings - your scenario is illogical and forgets Beijing prizes becoming the world’s dominant economic power above all else.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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fallap
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:15 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
fallap wrote:
Ahh, just like Shanghai in the years following the CCP victory of 1949. History repeats itself, it probably won't be long before PLA tanks flood into HK.


Come on now, didn't you watch that video of Shenzhen Public Safety Officer (Whatever those are call) using swords to fight back "protesters"?

Plus PRC needs HK to exchange their black money into USD. What is their other choice? Macau? Macau is just not big enough.



First we take Hong Kong, then we take Taiwaaaan...
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Now studying Political Science
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:34 am

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... isory.html

And US finally increased travel advisory level to Level 2 for HK.

The advice is pretty much the same I've said, though - i.e. just be situational aware and if something doesn't look right, leave (Unless you want to join in the protest, which I personally don't mind, but definitely be VERY cafeful).

Side note - Transiting at HKG is perfectly fine. If you want to go out to the city, Lantau area is still "pristine", but keep up with the latest news if you're actually heading into the city mostly for any possible traffic disruptions. For the most part, though, HK is still safe, and it's highly unlikely you'll be hurt. Actually, if you're transiting in HKG and has too much time, it's also easy to just head over the bridge to Macau for sightseeing.

I'll throw out the same advice again, though, I wouldn't trust the HK police to be useful at all.
 
CityRail
Topic Author
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:26 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:43 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/hong-kong-travel-advisory.html

And US finally increased travel advisory level to Level 2 for HK.

The advice is pretty much the same I've said, though - i.e. just be situational aware and if something doesn't look right, leave (Unless you want to join in the protest, which I personally don't mind, but definitely be VERY cafeful).

Side note - Transiting at HKG is perfectly fine. If you want to go out to the city, Lantau area is still "pristine", but keep up with the latest news if you're actually heading into the city mostly for any possible traffic disruptions. For the most part, though, HK is still safe, and it's highly unlikely you'll be hurt. Actually, if you're transiting in HKG and has too much time, it's also easy to just head over the bridge to Macau for sightseeing.

I'll throw out the same advice again, though, I wouldn't trust the HK police to be useful at all.
There will be protest at HKG T1 again this weekend from 6am tomorrow.
Be careful, and allow plenty of time of travel.

我從使用 Tapatalk 的 SM-A7050 發送
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:45 pm

CityRail wrote:
There will be protest at HKG T1 again this weekend from 6am tomorrow.
Be careful, and allow plenty of time of travel.


We'll see how it goes. What is the totally inept HK Police going to do? Shoot off Tear Gas inside the terminal? Playing Cat and Mouse with the people in the arrival area in riot gear? Arrest people that are waiting for their relative/friend to arrive from their flight?

Ultimately, no police = peaceful protest. It's ALWAYS the idiotic police that create chaos.
 
seat64k
Posts: 461
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:48 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:05 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
What is the totally inept HK Police going to do? Shoot off Tear Gas inside the terminal?


Wouldn't put it past them.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:40 pm

seat64k wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
What is the totally inept HK Police going to do? Shoot off Tear Gas inside the terminal?


Wouldn't put it past them.


I wouldn't either. HK Police has to use up their expired stock of Tear Gas after all :white:
 
Pacific
Posts: 1140
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:41 am

I do remember the SCMP interviewing a police officer stationed at the Parliament the night it got ransacked. Even they know tear gas is not advisable indoors.

As this is a travel advisory thread, anyone going to HK should "agree" with the demonstrators if they want to avoid trouble. The act of shoving a flier out of the way has triggered a violent mob around an elderly man at the airport last time.

On Saturday the 10th, there will likely be protests around the suburban town of Tai Po, known for cycling and a transit point to get to popular outdoor dining restaurants. It turned ugly on Monday and is featured as the front cover of this week's Economist.

I live in HK and purposely avoid places where black shirts, white shirts or riot police are present.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:44 am

Pacific wrote:
As this is a travel advisory thread, anyone going to HK should "agree" with the demonstrators if they want to avoid trouble. The act of shoving a flier out of the way has triggered a violent mob around an elderly man at the airport last time.


Except it did got under control quick. For every protesters that lose their temper, there are always 3 that held them back anyway, which is exactly what happen in that incident with that "violent" mob.

Pacific wrote:
I live in HK and purposely avoid places where black shirts, white shirts or riot police are present.


Just avoid riot police IMHO. When there are black shirts without police around, they don't just go around and instigate stuff against regular joes. Can't say the same for the riot police b/c of their tactic of "just arrest anyone they can...who cares what happen next" nowaday.

Ok, to be "neutral" (b/c you know I'm far from neutral...I"ll admit that), if you're driving and the road is blocked by some protesters, just don't get out of your car or better, just say you "support" them. Those can get pretty ugly, and I'm saying this as somebody that is totally anti-gov't (There are definitely some actions that I don't agree with when it comes to the protesters).

Pacific wrote:
I do remember the SCMP interviewing a police officer stationed at the Parliament the night it got ransacked. Even they know tear gas is not advisable indoors.


That was then, this is now. The police was far more disciplined back in July 1st. They're clearly tired and totally undisciplined by now.

P.S. Doesn't seems like there are tons of protest at the airport AFAIK right now. The Airport Authority of course (IMHO) overreact by having all these restriction in the departure area, even though any planned protest would be at the arrival hall. :white:

Pacific wrote:
On Saturday the 10th, there will likely be protests around the suburban town of Tai Po, known for cycling and a transit point to get to popular outdoor dining restaurants. It turned ugly on Monday and is featured as the front cover of this week's Economist.


Monday was simply chaotic everywhere anyway.

The one in Tai Po should be somewhat contained anyway even if it gets chaotic, as there are just not many roads in/out of Tai Po. At max it spread to Shatin or Fanling/Sheung Shui (Basically along the northern part of East Rail Line). The one planned on 11th in North Point can spread quickly all over Kowloon/HK Island due to the easy access from North Point to everywhere.
 
Speedalive
Posts: 131
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:14 pm

These protests are going to go nowhere in my opinion. You can't beat China. The bill has been declared dead and that's probably the best you're going to get. The bill is not going to return - Carrie Lam is just far too concerned about saving face for her to officially withdraw it. The protests are now hurting Hong Kong more than anything, which is unfortunate. I love Hong Kong and it feels like home away from home. The unfortunate truth though is that Hong Kong is going to be part of the mainland in 2047 anyways, so it is only natural that the central government is going to start slowly stripping away freedoms. They can't just switch it to communism overnight... Fighting their influence might achieve some short term freedom, but it won't last long. I think everybody needs to relax and let cool heads prevail. Maybe the government might actually launch an inquiry if this happens. They're not going to give in to the protesters, that's pretty clear. Fat chance that Lam is going to step down as well. The protesters are just talking to a wall. It's sad but it's true.
 
Cerecl
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:15 pm

It saddens me to see what started as an protest against an unpopular law turned into this protest against everything that is not great about life in HK and both side of the conflict have become more irrational. In the end I don't see this protest solving any of the major problems facing HK, but I guess it is always good to have something or someone to blame. The gulf of misunderstanding and prejudice between the Mainland and HK has widened. Many mainlanders who used to admire HK have now developed a sense of resentment or even betrayal and more HKers than ever are convinced the PRC government has a devious plan to suffocate HK into a second rate city.

I think the recent CAAC policy is counterproductive and hard to reinforce, however I also detest the action of the CX staff who leaked the flight details of a HK police soccer team on Whatsapp. These kind of actions tear the society apart. I don't know what some of you expect the HK police to do, they clearly are not going to just lie down or retreat when protesters storm government buildings or throw burning objects at police stations. Of course they are not perfect and they certainly should have acted decisively in Yuen Long, but for the most part I don't see how NYPD or Scotland Yard would have acted differently.
Last edited by Cerecl on Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Cerecl
Posts: 573
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:34 pm

Speedalive wrote:
The unfortunate truth though is that Hong Kong is going to be part of the mainland in 2047 anyways, so it is only natural that the central government is going to start slowly stripping away freedoms.

What you stated is a common belief and anxiety about it almost certainly contributed to the current protest however I actually don't think the PRC government wants to turn HK into another Mainland city. I have stated on this forum and I will say it again. There are at least three big reasons why it is in China's interest to keep HK roughly as is. 1. HK is meant to be the "demonstration class" for Taiwan.( Obvious the plan is not going well!) 2. It is important for the Chinese government to be able to claim that they are managing HK just as well if not better than the British and 3. There are already way too many megacities in China, turning HK into a Shanghai 1000km to the south really isn't all that useful. I think the year 2047 is simply an arbitrary number at which time none of the current top echelon of PRC government will have significant influence.

This is not to say that PRC government won't try to slowly change HK culturally. I don't think they will have much success though. In the meantime HK will hopefully adapt to the reality that it is no longer the window of China to the world and forge a new path forward.
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zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:53 pm

Speedalive wrote:
The bill is not going to return - Carrie Lam is just far too concerned about saving face for her to officially withdraw it.


Except that even gov't official documents is showing that it can just be resurrect on a whim. Nobody trust Carrie Lam by now, period. If it's truly dead, then Carrie Lam should just completely withdraw it, officially. Her words mean absolutely nothing.

Speedalive wrote:
The protesters are just talking to a wall. It's sad but it's true.


It's definitely sad but true, but doesn't mean protesters should just give up and "hope" for an independent inquiry (Fat chance that'll happen). Why should the protesters trust the gov't now?

Cerecl wrote:
This is not to say that PRC government won't try to slowly change HK culturally. I don't think they will have much success though. In the meantime HK will hopefully adapt to the reality that it is no longer the window of China to the world and forge a new path forward.


I'll have to find the chart, but ~60-70% of outside money going into PRC still flows through HK.

Plus, where do you think those CCP officials are going to put their money? Mainland China? Macau? No, it's HK.

As people said - HK had been return to China for 22 years now. Chinese economy had also been booming for awhile. Yet Shanghai is still far from catching up to HK.
 
Speedalive
Posts: 131
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:19 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Except that even gov't official documents is showing that it can just be resurrect on a whim. Nobody trust Carrie Lam by now, period. If it's truly dead, then Carrie Lam should just completely withdraw it, officially. Her words mean absolutely nothing.

That may be possible, but the fallout wouldn't be worth it. I'm 100% sure that this is the best we're going to get and that it won't return. I would love for it to just be withdrawn completely, but I can't see it ever happening. She has to balance pleasing the people of HK along with trying to not show weakness to Beijing/lose face. Declaring the bill dead is probably the best compromise. As a side note, if Carrie steps down, there will just be another pro-Beijing replacement anyways. HK is not a true democracy anymore, if it ever was in the first place.

zakuivcustom wrote:
It's definitely sad but true, but doesn't mean protesters should just give up and "hope" for an independent inquiry (Fat chance that'll happen). Why should the protesters trust the gov't now?

I'm not saying give up, just that it's most likely wasted effort as it stands right now. I hope I'm proved wrong though. This whole thing just seems to be an endless loop of unrealistic/utopian demands from protesters and increasing police violence and chaos. The radical protesters have somewhat removed the moral high ground too, which is hampering efforts to get the overall message across. If people could remain civil (on both sides), maybe some progress would occur.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:58 pm

Speedalive wrote:
I'm not saying give up, just that it's most likely wasted effort as it stands right now. I hope I'm proved wrong though. This whole thing just seems to be an endless loop of unrealistic/utopian demands from protesters and increasing police violence and chaos. The radical protesters have somewhat removed the moral high ground too, which is hampering efforts to get the overall message across. If people could remain civil (on both sides), maybe some progress would occur.


I don't necessarily disagree with you. The problem, though, is that protesters see no reason to stop now (Basically "If not now, when?" would be their mentality), while the gov't is clearly not going to listen and would rather just let the endless loop of increasing violence goes on.

Personally, I don't agree 100% with some of the radical protester's action, either (Seriously, starting a fire in front of a police station or breaking the windows of car just b/c the driver disagree is not going to solve anything). I guess it's the drawback of "unorganized" protest, i.e. it's just impossible to control what each and every single protesters do, and balancing between "radical" and "civil" protests just get even harder due to the lack of organization.

Speedalive wrote:
That may be possible, but the fallout wouldn't be worth it. I'm 100% sure that this is the best we're going to get and that it won't return. I would love for it to just be withdrawn completely, but I can't see it ever happening. She has to balance pleasing the people of HK along with trying to not show weakness to Beijing/lose face. Declaring the bill dead is probably the best compromise. As a side note, if Carrie steps down, there will just be another pro-Beijing replacement anyways. HK is not a true democracy anymore, if it ever was in the first place.


Keep in mind that Carrie Lam stepping down is not even one of the demands - protesters know better. Hence they change it to "Having full democratic election" as a demand.

As for the bill - the problem with the "compromise" is that Carrie Lam also had a history of "suspending" something only to ram things through again in no time. People simply do not trust her, period - the lose of trust is not an overnight phenomenon - HK gov't had repeatedly promise one thing and do another.
 
winginit
Posts: 2546
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:44 pm

CityRail wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/hong-kong-travel-advisory.html

And US finally increased travel advisory level to Level 2 for HK.

The advice is pretty much the same I've said, though - i.e. just be situational aware and if something doesn't look right, leave (Unless you want to join in the protest, which I personally don't mind, but definitely be VERY cafeful).

Side note - Transiting at HKG is perfectly fine. If you want to go out to the city, Lantau area is still "pristine", but keep up with the latest news if you're actually heading into the city mostly for any possible traffic disruptions. For the most part, though, HK is still safe, and it's highly unlikely you'll be hurt. Actually, if you're transiting in HKG and has too much time, it's also easy to just head over the bridge to Macau for sightseeing.

I'll throw out the same advice again, though, I wouldn't trust the HK police to be useful at all.
There will be protest at HKG T1 again this weekend from 6am tomorrow.
Be careful, and allow plenty of time of travel.

我從使用 Tapatalk 的 SM-A7050 發送


The imagery coming out of HKG is pretty wild
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:57 pm

winginit wrote:
CityRail wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/hong-kong-travel-advisory.html

And US finally increased travel advisory level to Level 2 for HK.

The advice is pretty much the same I've said, though - i.e. just be situational aware and if something doesn't look right, leave (Unless you want to join in the protest, which I personally don't mind, but definitely be VERY cafeful).

Side note - Transiting at HKG is perfectly fine. If you want to go out to the city, Lantau area is still "pristine", but keep up with the latest news if you're actually heading into the city mostly for any possible traffic disruptions. For the most part, though, HK is still safe, and it's highly unlikely you'll be hurt. Actually, if you're transiting in HKG and has too much time, it's also easy to just head over the bridge to Macau for sightseeing.

I'll throw out the same advice again, though, I wouldn't trust the HK police to be useful at all.
There will be protest at HKG T1 again this weekend from 6am tomorrow.
Be careful, and allow plenty of time of travel.

我從使用 Tapatalk 的 SM-A7050 發送


The imagery coming out of HKG is pretty wild


To be fair, I was talking about the relative lack of protesters around 11pm EDT (So 11am HK Time), but the protesters didn't really arrive until 1pm or so.

The protest at the airport is VERY peaceful and civilized anyway. Yes, there's a crowd of people wearing black shirts, but nobody throwing punches nor trying to rush into restricted area or blocking the path of arriving passengers with things like luggage carts.

Hopefully the "mass shopping/cycling" (I can't exactly call it a protest...) stay relatively civil both tomorrow and Sunday. As long as the police stay away I guess (B/c quite frankly, it's not like the useless popo are even arresting the worst offender nowaday, they just arrest whoever that they can catch up to).
 
Cerecl
Posts: 573
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:34 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
I'll have to find the chart, but ~60-70% of outside money going into PRC still flows through HK.
Plus, where do you think those CCP officials are going to put their money? Mainland China? Macau? No, it's HK.
As people said - HK had been return to China for 22 years now. Chinese economy had also been booming for awhile. Yet Shanghai is still far from catching up to HK.


I have no idea if the numbers you quoted is true, even if it is, it is cold comfort for HK. Monetary policies are changeable. What if one day PRC opens up a "special economic region" in Shanghai or Guangzhou with less stringent monetary control and incentives to lure foreign money away from HK? They have already established an experimental Free Trade Zone in Shanghai and these kind of "experimental" changes have a proven track record of becoming more widespread and more comprehensive given time.

Your typical corrupt municipal bureau chief Mr. X is not going to have that much access to HK and via it the outside financial world. He'd be much more likely to hide his illegal income at home. Those at the very top probably do shift their money overseas via HK but they are a small minority. I am pretty sure they will find another channel if HK is no longer available.

I don't know what metric you used to come to the conclusion of "Shanghai is still far from catching up to HK". Shanghai's GDP is about 1.35x that of HK in 2018. What also makes Shanghai's position so powerful is that many of the high-tech and crucial industries are located in this region. There are also several other major cities feeding into and complementing Shanghai, all no more than 1-2 hrs of HSR ride away, not to mention they almost always have national policy on their side. HK doesn't have these advantages and from what I can see, no many people are really seriously thinking about how HK can leverage its unique positions that megacities in mainland China do not possess.
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seat64k
Posts: 461
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:10 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Keep in mind that Carrie Lam stepping down is not even one of the demands - protesters know better. Hence they change it to "Having full democratic election" as a demand.


IMHO adding universal suffrage to the list dooms the entire project. If they kept it to the bill and stuff relating to the police, this might have been over by now. But universal suffrage is an impossible ask.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Hopefully the "mass shopping/cycling" (I can't exactly call it a protest...)


Happy hour!
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:04 pm

seat64k wrote:
IMHO adding universal suffrage to the list dooms the entire project. If they kept it to the bill and stuff relating to the police, this might have been over by now. But universal suffrage is an impossible ask.


It's definitely true. But on the other hand, the gov't literally reject the what most "moderate" consider the two priority demand anyway - that of completely tabling the bill (instead of BS like "the bill is dead") officially and an independent investigation (by keep looping back to an internal investigation board that nobody trust).

Universal suffrage is in the Basic Law, and is something that HK gov't has to deal with sooner or later (Well, along with Article 23...).

seat64k wrote:
Happy hour!


No Tear Gas Buffet for the crowd in Tai Po today, though. :white: :white:

Can't say the same for Tsim Sha Tsui (Where they pull one of those idiotic arbitrary arrest...AGAIN) or Tai Wai (Where they're literally shooting tear gas when all the protesters already left, thus affecting the older residents nearby along with people waiting for MTR in Tai Wai Station).

My only hope is that things are over for tonight...just to have another tear gas show tomorrow. :banghead:
 
c933103
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:26 am

seat64k wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Keep in mind that Carrie Lam stepping down is not even one of the demands - protesters know better. Hence they change it to "Having full democratic election" as a demand.


IMHO adding universal suffrage to the list dooms the entire project. If they kept it to the bill and stuff relating to the police, this might have been over by now. But universal suffrage is an impossible ask.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Hopefully the "mass shopping/cycling" (I can't exactly call it a protest...)


Happy hour!

Other demands aren't that much easier for the central authority to accept.
Chinese government have already defined protest in Hong Kong as violent mobs trying to subvert the country by using riots, so if the government of Hong Kong stop calling some of the previous protests as riots, or release some of those protestors, that will be see as giving those people who try to subvert the country and damage national sovereignty a free pass and that will not happen. It can be expected that, even if those that are prosecuted have been proven innocence via trial on court, Chinese authority and their controlled media in mainland China will continue to paint them as rioters and blame bias of those judges that process these cases. Same reason why they won't setup an independent committee to investigate all these events as they could come up with conclusions that are unfavorable to Chinese-Hong Kong government and thus affect effect of Beijing government propaganda.
Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:35 pm

Sigh...another weekend, and the police are getting ever more aggressive.

Seriously, the gov't still think just by arresting each and every protesters, the problem will just go away? At the expense of what? The zero trust between citizens and police? Or making sure any foreign investors to be much more cautious when they put money in HK in the future? What's next? Just ram even more unpopular bills through legislature just b/c they can?

And they wonder why HK is such a hopeless city.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:42 pm

Should Hong Kong declare independence? I am sure the protesters will soon push for that.
 
CityRail
Topic Author
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:50 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Should Hong Kong declare independence? I am sure the protesters will soon push for that.
Not now. HK Independence will push HK itself into a very disadvantageous position.

Why don't ask foreign military intelligence officers to support protesters and push China to expluse Hong Kong out of China?

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zakuivcustom
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:42 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Should Hong Kong declare independence? I am sure the protesters will soon push for that.


The thing is, while there are certainly a sector of protesters pushing for that, the whole "HK Independence" idea just won't ever be mainstream no matter what.

At the end of the day, most people care way more about their own livelihood than anything - and they do know the repercussion of "Independence". Even if we assume PRC will just let HK go independent (a BIG assumption as-is), then what? It doesn't really change the fact that HK economy is based around being a bridge between China and "Western" world for the most part. Quite frankly, all PRC has to do is cut off their side of the bridge from HK, and it'll take HK a few decades to be back to where they are right now, which, ultimately, how many people can wait out decades?

BTW...I saw this on SCMP:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/pol ... sus-police

I found this to be fairly neutral article over the current situation. But ultimately, just like elsewhere in the world, the increasing echo chamber along with increasing push towards two extreme ends (i.e. "us vs. them") basically drown out any remaining moderating voice.

Ultimately, nobody is happy now - the protesters still don't get what they want and would not stop until they do. The gov't still just stand back and let people fight each other. The regular citizens are getting increasingly affected, between things like road blockages to protests near residential areas that usually lead to police using tear gas (arguably excessively) that usually end up affecting the residents more than the protesters. The residents are now also almost "forced" to pick a side, thus making the situation even worse.

Sigh...sitting miles away in US watching my former home becoming a mess is just sad. Yes, on one hand, as you can see from my posts, I already picked a side myself. On the other hand, the situation IS getting out of control, and watching that inept gov't still just sitting there doing nothing is sad on one hand, but make me extremely angry on the other.

Personally, I do feel like the protesters need to regain the focus - instead of the heavy antagonism targeting police, they should use those energy to target the people behind all these, i.e. the gov't officials.
 
MSMinHKG
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Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:40 am

Although I initially disagreed with the OP's recommendation to avoid traveling to Hong Kong on weekends, I've somewhat changed my mind after the violence that broke out last night. On live TV, I saw police firing tear gas into an MTR station (Kwai Fong) at protestors who were retreating. Some of them were quite badly injured. The cops were also firing at people at point-blank range. One young woman was blinded in one eye as a result, in Tsim Sha Tsui, and the same tactic in the Tai Koo MTR station resulted in a stampede down very steep escalators to get away. At least one person fell, and the cops were dragging the ones they could catch back and beating the crap out of them with truncheons. There is also video of cops planting weapons on protestors in order to arrest them on trumped-up charges. It was almost as disturbing to see a contingent of Fujianese thugs in North Point beating up on protestors and passersby. These were not even local gang members; they'd come down from the mainland in order to rough people up. Tellingly, no tear gas was deployed in North Point despite several other districts being turned into smoky hellscapes.

Now that it's Monday morning, everything is more or less back to normal, and apart from the airport protest apparently being extended for another day, no actions seem to be planned. However, I do get the impression that things are continuing to escalate. There is discussion among the protestors about whether a change of tactics is needed. They know what is going on and they know the toll it is taking on society here. It would be inaccurate to suggest they are ignorant, naive, or just so ginned-up with bloodlust that they are incapable of stopping themselves. Having watched this on play out on live TV far more than I would ever want to, I have noticed that the protestors' tactics are generally (note my word choice here) not violent -- or weren't, until the cops started attacking them. This stopped being about crowd control and dispersal weeks ago. It is combat and it is mostly one-sided. The following op-ed in HK Free Press sums up my feelings on the subject very well:https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/08/11/complain-hong-kongs-anti-extradition-bill-protesters-consider/

If you have to travel here for business, don't panic. It's still manageable. There aren't clouds of tear gas wafting through Central day in and day out. During the week -- so far -- things have been more or less okay apart from last Monday. Although almost every district has now seen conflict of some sort, some have been less affected so far: Hung Hom, Soho, and upper Jordan/ Yau Ma Tei. I don't think the Sai Wan protests have spilled all the way over into Kennedy Town. And there's the south side of HK Island: Wong Chuk Hang, Stanley, Aberdeen, Cyberport. Weekends are another matter, however. Tear gas got into several MTR stations last night. The worst by far (I'm still in shock over this) was Kwai Fong. Even before the imbeciles in uniform shot tear gas at fleeing protestors, it was already wafting in because of the conflict outside. The tear-gas buffet also affected Wan Chai and (I think) Sai Wan Ho. One loses track.

If you have to be here on a weekend, avoid North Point. Full stop. My partner's family live there, and I know what the dynamics are. If there are more visitations from mainland thugs, it would be too easy to get caught up in any violence that may break out. If you must be there, do not wear red, white, or black. (The thugs showed up in red shirts.) If you must be here, choose a hotel with enough amenities that you don't need to go out (or go far) if violence breaks out. Hotels with direct connections to shopping malls and MTR stations will be helpful in this situation. Talk to the staff for the latest on what's going on, and heed their warnings about safety. The flashpoints on weekends have been -- as has been pointed out several times already -- police stations. Find out where they are and stay away from them. Order room service if you must and don't go out in order to see for yourself. Expired tear gas is even more dangerous than the fresh kind, and there have been times the streets are so thick with it, it's like the tule fog in California. It's like the steam bath in a sauna when the steam's on full blast and you can't see the person sitting across from you. (Sometimes that is a good thing. In this case, not so much.)

I actually wouldn't recommend coming for leisure travel right now. In my original response, I felt differently. After what went down last night, I've changed my mind. Although I still think a savvy tourist can manage this, the government's ongoing refusal to entertain calls for an independent inquiry are beyond troubling. I would say I've never seen such incompetence in my life, but other regimes that shall remain nameless also have idiots at the helm.

As to why HK doesn't delcare independence, it's complicated. Partly it's to do with the narrative of an all-powerful China not letting such a thing happen, ever. There's the Taiwan scenario. China is extremely sensitive to anything it perceives as (a) a challenge to its sovereignty and (b) criticism. This is tiresome beyond all description but it is the reality here. The more pressing matter is delivering upon the universal suffrage written in the Basic Law and then reneged upon. Ultimately this is why Hongkongers are in the streets: the government here was not elected (apart from a fraction of the members of the Legislative Council) and is not accountable to the people. No mechanism exists to recall an incumbent Chief Executive or bring down a government and trigger new elections. As a result, living conditions and future prospects for younger people are fairly terrible and nothing short of protests can change that.

Personally, I'd like to see a moratorium called on the protests, and an invitation to dialogue issued. I think that would be a way for the protestors to retain moral authority. I also think the city needs a rest. But I'm not sure what's going to happen next.
 
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Mortyman
Posts: 5687
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:50 am

I'm sceptical of the source of this News, but ...


The Chinese government has begun moving troops across the Shenzhen Qianhai Guangshen Coastal Expressway Bridge into Hong Kong minutes ago, in a military operation to put down protests against the government of Beijing.

Hundreds of military trucks carrying soldiers and guns are moving at this hour across the Bridge into Hong Kong.

Enormous Columns of military trucks are entering the city:



https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.ph ... M7ePdd0vJs
 
MSMinHKG
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:54 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:23 am

Mortyman wrote:
I'm sceptical of the source of this News, but ...


The Chinese government has begun moving troops across the Shenzhen Qianhai Guangshen Coastal Expressway Bridge into Hong Kong minutes ago, in a military operation to put down protests against the government of Beijing.

Hundreds of military trucks carrying soldiers and guns are moving at this hour across the Bridge into Hong Kong.

Enormous Columns of military trucks are entering the city:



https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.ph ... M7ePdd0vJs


It's fake. We haven't been invaded.
 
melpax
Posts: 1898
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:47 am

Outbound flights suspended at HKIA due to sit-down protest affecting passenger check-in. Police seen entering the terminal.

Don't think this will end well.......

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/ho ... 52ge3.html
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14184
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:28 am

This is going to be another Timenan (sp) Square situation where the mainland government will go full brutal with 100's murdered, 1000's rounded up and sent to 'political re-education camps' to be murdered, the mainland government taking over HK, cutting off communications, putting in 'the great firewall' to keep out free speech, the press cut off and reporters arrested, no video showing the brutality allowed. The only thing that is holding the PRC government back is the need for the financial services buffer that Hong Kong serves. The Airport is shut down for all practical reality, and who knows for how long.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2699
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:45 pm

MSMinHKG wrote:
I actually wouldn't recommend coming for leisure travel right now. In my original response, I felt differently. After what went down last night, I've changed my mind. Although I still think a savvy tourist can manage this, the government's ongoing refusal to entertain calls for an independent inquiry are beyond troubling. I would say I've never seen such incompetence in my life, but other regimes that shall remain nameless also have idiots at the helm.


Sadly to say, HK gov't incompetence is nothing new.

When nothing happens, things can operate about the incompetence. But when something happen (i.e. the current protest), their incompetence come all out. Seriously, the gov't could have solve this long time ago, but decided to be the enemy of the people instead.

MSMinHKG wrote:
Personally, I'd like to see a moratorium called on the protests, and an invitation to dialogue issued. I think that would be a way for the protestors to retain moral authority. I also think the city needs a rest. But I'm not sure what's going to happen next.


I would like to see a moratorium also. But the gov't complete refusal to even have a dialogue outside of their own little echo chamber is another problem. Pan-Democracy legislators, for example, invited Carrie Lam for a dialogue way back in June. The response? They're totally ignored.

Hack, all these talks about "listening to people" from the gov't and what actions have they done? Nothing! For example, during the protests around Wong Tai Sin last week, not just the police station and the adjacent Disciplined Service Quarters are affected, but so does the neighboring housing estate. And Carrie Lam did what? Visit the family of police (with heavy police presence behind her, of course), but what about those people that live nearby?

Hack, what about those passerbys that got caught up in Yuen Long on July 21st? Not even "thoughts and prayers" about them! All those residents that "ate" tear gas? Again, not even a "thoughts and prayers"!

Otherwise, though, I personally do think that keep going hit and run on police stations all around HK is useless - it serves no purpose anyway. Well, unless the popos are the one that attacked their own as hired actor :white: .
 
seat64k
Posts: 461
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:48 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:49 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3022342/hong-kongs-anti-government-protesters-versus-police

I found this to be fairly neutral article over the current situation. But ultimately, just like elsewhere in the world, the increasing echo chamber along with increasing push towards two extreme ends (i.e. "us vs. them") basically drown out any remaining moderating voice.


This was a good piece.

“Both protesters and police would think that their side is the righteous one and that everyone in their in-group is doing the right thing for Hong Kong,” Chan said.

“The problem is, on top of the nebulous nature of the current situation, we are only fed a narrow facet of the complex reality. Everyone thinks they are seeing the full and complete picture when in reality no one actually does.”

Social psychologists have a concept called the “out-group homogeneity effect”, where people tend to perceive people outside their circles as more similar to one another than people in their circles.


This is such a good summary of most of the discussions on the non-av sub :(

MSMinHKG wrote:
Although I initially disagreed with the OP's recommendation to avoid traveling to Hong Kong on weekends, I've somewhat changed my mind after the violence that broke out last night.


Likewise. I still maintain it's safe to come here. Probably not a great time to come for holiday, but if you have a trip scheduled for work and don't mind missing out on seeing the sights, you'll be ok. Consult with your local colleagues and follow their advice.

MSMinHKG wrote:
The cops were also firing at people at point-blank range. One young woman was blinded in one eye as a result, in Tsim Sha Tsui, and the same tactic in the Tai Koo MTR station resulted in a stampede down very steep escalators to get away.


This one struck a nerve with me - maybe just because I know that mall and station very well (used to work in the area). That escalator is very very long - falling there could easily be fatal. It's also really upsetting seeing police officers beating people who are trying to get away from them (but are as good trapped - a crowd can only move so fast down a narrow escalator). In that particular scene the police, in their actions, were indistinguishable from the white shirt thugs in Yuen Long.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 10644
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Do NOT travel to Hong Kong, in particular on weekends

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:51 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Hack, all these talks about "listening to people" from the gov't and what actions have they done?


Maybe they just didn´t get permission to do anything about it..... and what can they do in any case. Most of the protesters will still be very much alive by 2047 .....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......

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