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LH658
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:51 am

I think we forget who occupied, and continue to occupy Palestinian land, and limiting their economy opportunity.

US/Great Britain treatment towards Iran in the last 100 years.

Saudi Arabia proxy war with Iran.

Who sold Saddam chemicals, and weapons to fight against Iran?

How many countries have been raided by Iran?

US regime change attempts?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:09 am

Kiwirob wrote:
Then who is Saudi Aramco?


Saudi Aramco? :rotfl:

I worked with them on a multi-billion dollar refinery 50-50 JV. They couldn’t organise their way out of a wet paper bag without all the ex-pats working for them. Saudi nationals hold all the senior positions but are useless (when they can be bothered to turn up for work).

We eventually pulled the plug when it became clear they would only treat us like hired help rather than joint partners.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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GDB
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:41 am

olle wrote:
We need to remember US and UK involvement in Iran during the last 100 years.

No one has bee interested in the wellbeing of the Iran people. Sadly US and Israeli policy continue this tradition. And now they fooled UK to join.

This UK government must be the most incompetent since 1956.


Oh way worse, in '56 it was really just Eden, being physically and probably mentally ill that drove Suez, (an event now almost unknown in the UK, probably as any understanding of it would shatter all these Brexit delusions). To such a degree that there was a kind of slow moving mutiny against it, by the Chiefs Of Staff claiming they were not ready, to Eden's mounting anger. Lord Mounbatten, Chief Of The General Staff (cousin to the Queen) thought Eden was off his rocker, not helped by the PM lying to the Queen, the head of the RAF 'the PM's gone bananas, he wants to invade Egypt!'. To many call up papers sent to reservists being returned with phrases like 'bollocks!' written across them.

At least Eden prior to this had been a brave soldier in WW1, he had lost family, including a son, in WW2, was an effective Foreign Secretary in the wartime coalition. However he seemed to crack as PM, not helped by serious bile duct problems and constant pain.
The shower of shit in government now have no such excuses, nor experience, nor even the wisdom Eden had prior to losing it over Nasser. They also prove in many cases that an expensive education does not mean they themselves are smart, nor in many cases even that intelligent.
As nailed here;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -best-bits

As for Iran, a big problem for any fantasies about 'invading is that the Iranian have prepared for such a contingency for four decades.
I suspect what still drives, in the gut, this hatred of Iran was that 40 years ago a US backed tyrant was replaced by home grown ones, then that botched rescue attempt to get the US hostages out. A bit like the irrational attitude to Cuba, never gotten over The Bay Of Pigs.
What has also changed in that time is the US and Israel, both Reagan and the first President Bush were allies, not clients, when Israel stepped over the line they were at times prepared in public to disagree and even withhold some support. Now, it's a weird Elephant and Mouse situation, the mouse calling the shots.
Last edited by GDB on Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:49 am

scbriml wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Then who is Saudi Aramco?


Saudi Aramco? :rotfl:

I worked with them on a multi-billion dollar refinery 50-50 JV. They couldn’t organise their way out of a wet paper bag without all the ex-pats working for them. Saudi nationals hold all the senior positions but are useless (when they can be bothered to turn up for work).

I made the same experience... :-/
 
johns624
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:41 am

Aesma wrote:
Are admirals even likely to captain these ships anyway ?
I think that's his point. The command structure is overly top heavy.
 
Jetty
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:59 am

seb146 wrote:
We are still at war with Islam and drugs and Iraq and Afghanistan and poverty. Can we afford a war with Iran? Republicans will try to convince us we can.

At war with Islam? :roll: The US has been supporting the islamofacists in Saudi-Arabia for decades and still does.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:34 pm

mham001 wrote:
olle wrote:
We need to remember US and UK involvement in Iran during the last 100 years.


I am flummoxed how people who wish to point the finger at the US for every hotspot in the world consistently paint a picture of history only beginning when the US gets involved.

Iran/Persia has a long history of intervention by the Ottomans, Afghans, Russians, Germans and many others. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Iran


Because the US / its politicians hold strange grudges, with unintended consequences.

In France we used to have good relations with Iran, even after the revolution, and as a result, we could impose tougher conditions in the accord Trump so carelessly ripped up.

France under Charles de Gaulle established full diplomatic relations with China almost a decade before "Nixon in China".

We do plenty of business in Cuba.

Imagine if the US had done the same ridiculous tit for tat with Japan and Germany, the world would be very strange.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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seb146
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 4:36 pm

Jetty wrote:
seb146 wrote:
We are still at war with Islam and drugs and Iraq and Afghanistan and poverty. Can we afford a war with Iran? Republicans will try to convince us we can.

At war with Islam? :roll: The US has been supporting the islamofacists in Saudi-Arabia for decades and still does.


I didn't say over there. Republicans have been fighting a war against Islam in the United States since September 11, 2001. All the screeching about "They are building a mosque at ground zero!" and Ilhan Omar and "Muslim terrorist" and bombing mosques and on and on.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
mham001
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 4:47 pm

Aesma wrote:

In France we used to have good relations with Iran, even after the revolution, and as a result, we could impose tougher conditions in the accord Trump so carelessly ripped up.


And look what that got you...

France Ties Iran to Bomb Plot, and Freezes Spy Agency Assets - The ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/worl ... mbing.html
Oct 2, 2018 - PARIS — France publicly linked Iran's intelligence services to a foiled bomb plot that targeted a June meeting near Paris of an Iranian ...
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Then who is Saudi Aramco?


Saudi Aramco? :rotfl:

I worked with them on a multi-billion dollar refinery 50-50 JV. They couldn’t organise their way out of a wet paper bag without all the ex-pats working for them. Saudi nationals hold all the senior positions but are useless (when they can be bothered to turn up for work).

We eventually pulled the plug when it became clear they would only treat us like hired help rather than joint partners.


They may be all that but they’re 100% Saudi state owned.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:38 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
They may be all that but they’re 100% Saudi state owned.


They are now, yes. But, if things go tits-up in the ME, all the ex-pats will leave and Saudi Aramco will quickly fold like the house of cards it is.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
ual763
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
The Israelis have shown quite a bit of restraint.


Yeah, they only steal land from people who can’t fight back. :sarcastic:


Just casually ignore the fact that Israel is protecting it’s people from the Palestinian govt. lobbing bombs/missiles at Israeli citizens and the countless other terror attacks imposed on the Israeli people. I guess, in your mind, the Palestinians can do no wrong. Israel is always the evil one. God forbid they protect their own people...
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ual763
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:03 pm

AeroVega wrote:
FCAFLYBOY wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

This "attack" was a response to the British "attack" on an Iranian oil tanker two weeks ago.

See https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48865030

Apparently the EU claims the right to prevent Iranian oil from reaching Syria through the Strait of Gibraltar. Is is then a surprise that, in response, Iran claims the reciprocal right to prevent Saudi oil from reaching the EU through the Strait of Hormuz?


Except that is not the same thing at all. Grace 1 was seized as she was in direct violation of sanctions. The British ship seized was in Omani/International waters first of all, and secondly, was seized for no valid reason other than retaliation, which is therefore considered hostile.


Please explain how imposing sanctions on Iran is not a hostile act towards Iran.


And how about you explain to us the reasons those sanctions were imposed and how that is not a hostile act towards the Western World? The US didn’t start this. Iran did...
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ual763
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:25 pm

Gotta love the ignorance on this board towards Isreal. Seems the Israel haters and Palestinian apologists love to point out all the events that occurred after 1947 and use it to persecute the modern state of Israel, but conveniently ignore the history of Israel and the Jewish people prior to 1947 as it doesn’t fit their globalist narrative.
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seb146
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:45 am

ual763 wrote:
Gotta love the ignorance on this board towards Isreal. Seems the Israel haters and Palestinian apologists love to point out all the events that occurred after 1947 and use it to persecute the modern state of Israel, but conveniently ignore the history of Israel and the Jewish people prior to 1947 as it doesn’t fit their globalist narrative.


Even the parts where Israel started conflicts with Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon and kept insisting Palestinians have to give up land because reasons. But, do go on....
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
Spar
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:41 am

ual763 wrote:
Gotta love the ignorance on this board towards Isreal. Seems the Israel haters and Palestinian apologists love to point out all the events that occurred after 1947 and use it to persecute the modern state of Israel, but conveniently ignore the history of Israel and the Jewish people prior to 1947 as it doesn’t fit their globalist narrative.

Oh. cool you want to talk about that. I'll be happy to oblige. What period do you want to start with?

We could begin all the way back to Shim'on bar Kochva and discuss the wisdom of him ambushing one of Hadrian's legions and getting the temple cult crowd all but exterminated. Then we could talk about the development of rabbinical Judaism in the Roman territories which bloomed just fine because the Romans didn't persecute the Jews that weren't associated with the wacko super religious crowd. The Jews got along fine with the Romans and their non-Jewish neighbors (Palestinians) even when the Islamic tide swept into the region. There were a few glitches with the Romans when on occasion the Jewish community sided with the Persians during Roman Persian wars: with predictable result.

But all in all everything went pretty well for the Jews in the Levant until the moronic Crusaders arrived on the scene. During that dark era the Jews and their Muslim neighbors fought shoulder to shoulder against the European invaders. After the Crusaders pulled out, things quieted down again and the Jews and their neighbors (Palestinians) once again lived in harmony.

The tranquility lasted until the early 20th century.

If you would like, we could begin our discussion in the 1880s when the Russian Jews's revolution against the Tzar became the failure that it was and the Tzar started pogroms against Jews and even had lists of specific Jews that the Tzar's people were hunting down. The international Jewish community was soliciting donations to help these people escape the wrath of the Tzar and thus the Rothschild family money was being used to bring the militants who had lost their battle against the Russian's to the Levant aka Palestine because they would be safe there. They were safe there because the Palestinians welcomed them as refugees and held no bias against the Yishuv community . More than 2 million Jews fled Russia between 1880 and 1920, most went to the US or Europe but more than a few found their way to Palestine. By the turn of the 19th century it could have been said that Palestine had always been the safest place for Jews; after whatever happened elsewhere, the Palestinian people always accepted the people of the Yishuv and welcomed refugees from elsewhere. At the time they just didn't know any better.

Maybe a better place to start our discussion would be to just skip past the Biluim group Rishon LeZion, the Kadimah, the Hibat Tziyon groups, The Odessa Committee and all that and just begin with when Theodore Herzl published Der Judenstaat. Or we could even begin with The First Zionist Congress August 29, 1897. As Dylan would say, by that time the die it was set - the curse it was cast. The Zionist program to infiltrate Palestine and take over the land to create the Jewish state was agreed upon by all concerned; the locations in South America and Africa (the Uganda Scheme) were cast by the wayside and it was to be Palestine and nowhere else.

There's a lot to discuss between that era and 1947:
The second aliyah between 1904 and 1914 which brought specifically people of military age, preferably with military experience.
We could discuss Yitzhak Epstein's objections and warnings which were of course ignored.
We could discuss Bar-Giora, the very early Jewish self-defense organization which of course was really on offense. We could discuss how in that era the farms purchased with European and American money were being converted into armed fortresses where local Palestinians were banned.
We could discuss the changing demographics of the region:

Year. . # of Jews, #of "Arabs". . . Total . . . % Jews
1860 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411,000
1890. . 25,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . .553,000
1900. . 25,000 . . . 520,000. . . 545,000. . . 4.587%
1914. . 60,000 . . . 731,000. . . 791,000. . . 7.585%
1918. . 59,000 . . . 688,000. . . 747,000. . . 7.898%
1919. . 65,000 . . . . . . . . . (Lilienthal)
1922. . 83,790. . . 668,258. . . 752,048. . 11.141%
1931.. 174,606 . . 858,708. . 1,033,314. . 16.897%
1941.. 474,102 . 1,111,398. .1,585,500. . 29.902%
1944.. 554,000 . 1,211,000. .1,765,000. . 31.388%
1946.. 608,225 . 1,237,334. .1,845,559. . 32.956%

We could discuss the early politics of the region: Damascus Protocol, McMahon–Hussein Correspondence, the Sikes-Picot agreement, the Balfour Declaration (and we could discuss the importance of acetone for the British), The Hogarth Message or even the Anglo-French Settlement which certainly had a great affect on the whole region.

We could talk about Gertrude Bell and what might have been if peace had been given a chance.
We could mention fourth aliyah (1924 - 1928) and those 80,000 Jewish migrants.

I wonder if you will be willing to talk about the Irgun, the Irgun Tzva'i Leumi, the Mapai, people like Avraham Tehomi, Eliyahu Ben Horin and Ze'ev Jabotinsky; especially Ze'ev Jabotinsky and some of his clever sayings.

I'll let you begin; just start wherever you want.
 
LMP737
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:03 am

GDB wrote:

As for Iran, a big problem for any fantasies about 'invading is that the Iranian have prepared for such a contingency for four decades.
I suspect what still drives, in the gut, this hatred of Iran was that 40 years ago a US backed tyrant was replaced by home grown ones, then that botched rescue attempt to get the US hostages out. A bit like the irrational attitude to Cuba, never gotten over The Bay Of Pigs.
What has also changed in that time is the US and Israel, both Reagan and the first President Bush were allies, not clients, when Israel stepped over the line they were at times prepared in public to disagree and even withhold some support. Now, it's a weird Elephant and Mouse situation, the mouse calling the shots.


I think this latest crisis between the US and Iran has more to do with Trump's pathological obsession with Obama. Fueled in part by his Fox News viewing habits. Anything that Obama was part of was bad and he has to undue. It should be obvious to everyone he has no real policy regarding Iran other than they should do what he tells them and our allies they should be in lockstep with him. Which our course is totally ludicrous. No Iranian government is going to fold to the USA. And those allies he expects to go along with this are the same one he attacks on a regular basis.

Same goes for Cuba. I know some people say he's trying to lock up the Cuban vote in Florida. Only problem with that theory is the older anti-Castro/Cuban govt crowd is dying off. The younger generations don't are not so vested in it. If I were Trump I would be more worried about the Puerto Rican vote in Florida.
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AeroVega
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:40 am

ual763 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
FCAFLYBOY wrote:

Except that is not the same thing at all. Grace 1 was seized as she was in direct violation of sanctions. The British ship seized was in Omani/International waters first of all, and secondly, was seized for no valid reason other than retaliation, which is therefore considered hostile.


Please explain how imposing sanctions on Iran is not a hostile act towards Iran.


And how about you explain to us the reasons those sanctions were imposed and how that is not a hostile act towards the Western World? The US didn’t start this. Iran did...


We had an agreement with Iran in the form of the JCPOA that Iran was complying with. Then the US unilaterally pulled out and reimposed sanctions.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:57 am

ual763 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
The Israelis have shown quite a bit of restraint.


Yeah, they only steal land from people who can’t fight back. :sarcastic:


Just casually ignore the fact that Israel is protecting it’s people from the Palestinian govt. lobbing bombs/missiles at Israeli citizens and the countless other terror attacks imposed on the Israeli people. I guess, in your mind, the Palestinians can do no wrong. Israel is always the evil one. God forbid they protect their own people...


You mean the people that Israel is forcefully driving off their land? They have no right to resists when their livelihood is attacked? You think it is fair to have your land taken from you and be forced to live in the open-air prison that is Gaza? If anyone is casually ignoring a fact then it is you casually ignoring that the Palestinians did not start this.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:17 am

ual763 wrote:
Just casually ignore the fact that Israel is protecting it’s people from the Palestinian govt... blah, blah, blah


Just as you, apparently, ignore Israel’s continued illegal land-grabs and occupation of land that isn’t theirs. Pot, meet kettle.

How is stealing land self-defence? The Israeli government has no interest in peace. Peace would mean Israel losing its trump card.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
ual763
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:40 pm

AeroVega wrote:
ual763 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

Please explain how imposing sanctions on Iran is not a hostile act towards Iran.


And how about you explain to us the reasons those sanctions were imposed and how that is not a hostile act towards the Western World? The US didn’t start this. Iran did...


We had an agreement with Iran in the form of the JCPOA that Iran was complying with. Then the US unilaterally pulled out and reimposed sanctions.


Must have missed the press conference where the USDOS and also Israel’s intelligence community provided photo evidence that Iran was NOT complying with the treaty. Right after that, we backed out. They must not have covered it on CNN or the BBC...
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Aaron747
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:48 pm

ual763 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
ual763 wrote:

And how about you explain to us the reasons those sanctions were imposed and how that is not a hostile act towards the Western World? The US didn’t start this. Iran did...


We had an agreement with Iran in the form of the JCPOA that Iran was complying with. Then the US unilaterally pulled out and reimposed sanctions.


Must have missed the press conference where the USDOS and also Israel’s intelligence community provided photo evidence that Iran was NOT complying with the treaty. Right after that, we backed out. They must not have covered it on CNN or the BBC...


And it’s impossible for that ‘evidence’ to be doctored or influenced..? Riiight.

You must have missed coverage of the IAEA inspectors’ reports then...continually.

https://www.rferl.org/amp/29974795.html
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
olle
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:53 pm

AeroVega wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
With the latest attack on a British oil tanker by Iran.


This "attack" was a response to the British "attack" on an Iranian oil tanker two weeks ago.

See https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48865030

Apparently the EU claims the right to prevent Iranian oil from reaching Syria through the Strait of Gibraltar. Is is then a surprise that, in response, Iran claims the reciprocal right to prevent Saudi oil from reaching the EU through the Strait of Hormuz?



EU might not consider that UK had the right to go after the Chip;

>>Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister and co-chair of the European council on foreign relations, pinpointed the ambiguities of the British action in Gibraltar: “The legality of the UK seizure of a tanker heading for Syria with oil from Iran intrigues me. One refers to EU sanctions against Syria, but Iran is not a member of the EU. And the EU as a principle doesn’t impose its sanctions on others. That’s what the US does.” <<


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... ran-hormuz
 
olle
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:59 pm

Trump and his most extreme friends adores Jews as long as they stay in Israel. When they happen in USA the friends do not like them so much anymore.
 
GDB
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:53 pm

ual763 wrote:
Gotta love the ignorance on this board towards Isreal. Seems the Israel haters and Palestinian apologists love to point out all the events that occurred after 1947 and use it to persecute the modern state of Israel, but conveniently ignore the history of Israel and the Jewish people prior to 1947 as it doesn’t fit their globalist narrative.


'Globalist' eh? That word, in the toolbox of every neo Nazi, or far left person and/or general anti-semitic cranks, so a bit unfortunate to see it cited in an 'Israel can do no wrong' post. If nothing else, it shows also an ignorance here being claimed of others.
Soros, Globalist, Rothchilds, usually in the same statements, want to add The Protocols Of Zion for a full house?

If there is widespread ignorance about Israel it does not come from this side of the pond.
Fact is, up until the early 80's there was general sympathy in European Centre-Left circles/governments for Israel, Likud, Lebanon, the war-crimes committed then, that was the turning point.
It had started so well too, with the 1979 agreement between Israel and Egypt.
Since then, the constant land grabs, killings, denial of basic needs, policies not unlike the Warsaw ghetto really.

A few years ago, a documentary made in Israel was released, The Gatekeepers, an account of Shin Bet, the core of Israeli counter-intelligence. Consisting of interviews with Shin Bet veterans, some from the earliest days of the state, accounts of the many and varied operations ran. But it's when they turn their attention to recent times, the tone changes, these guys are not impressed with Israeli policy towards the Palestinian issue. To them it does the opposite than provide security, now or in the long term, in fact it's a cancer at the heart of Israel.
I would take their word for it rather than some idiot American politician, much less some clown babbling on FOX.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2309788/?r ... f_=nv_sr_1

If you knew anything about the subject, you would know that both Reagan and GHW Bush had fallings out with Israel, when they really overstepped the mark, usually the threat of even very limited sanctions brought them to their senses.
Since then? With the lockstep with Israel, they've got worse and as these Shin Bet guys reckon, that ultimately threatens both Israeli and their main sponsors security.
Last edited by GDB on Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
GDB
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:02 pm

LMP737 wrote:
GDB wrote:

As for Iran, a big problem for any fantasies about 'invading is that the Iranian have prepared for such a contingency for four decades.
I suspect what still drives, in the gut, this hatred of Iran was that 40 years ago a US backed tyrant was replaced by home grown ones, then that botched rescue attempt to get the US hostages out. A bit like the irrational attitude to Cuba, never gotten over The Bay Of Pigs.
What has also changed in that time is the US and Israel, both Reagan and the first President Bush were allies, not clients, when Israel stepped over the line they were at times prepared in public to disagree and even withhold some support. Now, it's a weird Elephant and Mouse situation, the mouse calling the shots.


I think this latest crisis between the US and Iran has more to do with Trump's pathological obsession with Obama. Fueled in part by his Fox News viewing habits. Anything that Obama was part of was bad and he has to undue. It should be obvious to everyone he has no real policy regarding Iran other than they should do what he tells them and our allies they should be in lockstep with him. Which our course is totally ludicrous. No Iranian government is going to fold to the USA. And those allies he expects to go along with this are the same one he attacks on a regular basis.

That's probably true in his case, it's not as if he knows anything, nor wants to. Like his core voter in that regard then.
All he knows about Iran is that none of his shitty hotels and creepy golf clubs are in country.

Same goes for Cuba. I know some people say he's trying to lock up the Cuban vote in Florida. Only problem with that theory is the older anti-Castro/Cuban govt crowd is dying off. The younger generations don't are not so vested in it. If I were Trump I would be more worried about the Puerto Rican vote in Florida.


That's probably true, it's not as if he knows anything, nor wants to. Like his core vote in that regard.
His knowledge of Iran is likely limited by the lack of any of his tacky hotels or golf courses in country.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:27 pm

ual763 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
ual763 wrote:

And how about you explain to us the reasons those sanctions were imposed and how that is not a hostile act towards the Western World? The US didn’t start this. Iran did...


We had an agreement with Iran in the form of the JCPOA that Iran was complying with. Then the US unilaterally pulled out and reimposed sanctions.


Must have missed the press conference where the USDOS and also Israel’s intelligence community provided photo evidence that Iran was NOT complying with the treaty. Right after that, we backed out. They must not have covered it on CNN or the BBC...


Indeed, missed that. Got a link?
 
Spar
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:19 am

ual763 wrote:
Must have missed the press conference where the USDOS and also Israel’s intelligence community provided photo evidence that Iran was NOT complying with the treaty. Right after that, we backed out. They must not have covered it on CNN or the BBC...

Hey, I thought you wanted to tell us about the takeover of Palestine - the time before 1948.
After telling us how stupid we are I thought you were going to set things straight.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:34 am

Trump to the UK : hey stop that tanker off Gibraltar !
Iran seizes an UK tanker in retaliation.
UK to Trump : help pliz ?
Trump : it's not an American ship, I don't care, you're on your own !

How things change...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:12 am

Aesma wrote:
Trump to the UK : hey stop that tanker off Gibraltar !
Iran seizes an UK tanker in retaliation.
UK to Trump : help pliz ?
Trump : it's not an American ship, I don't care, you're on your own !

How things change...

It definitely busts the narrative that Trump wants a war with Iran. The leftists completely blew it yet again.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:09 am

Actually the "leftists" can see, as everyone else, that he's not the one calling the shots. He ripped up the deal only because it was Obama's legacy, aside from that there is no plan.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
mdsh00
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:09 pm

ual763 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
ual763 wrote:

And how about you explain to us the reasons those sanctions were imposed and how that is not a hostile act towards the Western World? The US didn’t start this. Iran did...


We had an agreement with Iran in the form of the JCPOA that Iran was complying with. Then the US unilaterally pulled out and reimposed sanctions.


Must have missed the press conference where the USDOS and also Israel’s intelligence community provided photo evidence that Iran was NOT complying with the treaty. Right after that, we backed out. They must not have covered it on CNN or the BBC...


Right. And how did WMD in Iraq (yellow cake anyone?) turn out?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:24 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Trump to the UK : hey stop that tanker off Gibraltar !
Iran seizes an UK tanker in retaliation.
UK to Trump : help pliz ?
Trump : it's not an American ship, I don't care, you're on your own !

How things change...

It definitely busts the narrative that Trump wants a war with Iran. The leftists completely blew it yet again.


Trump was driven towards war by Bolton and friends. Trump finally freaked out when he realized a war would cost him the economy, and lose all respect around the world as he would have been the cause.

Why else rip up a perfectly good treaty to go back to the bad old days? Now we have no monitoring, and an even more aggressive stance from Iran that is destabilizing the region.

The "leftists" tried to stop him from doing it. So let's call leftists what they really are. Intelligent People. Not knuckle dragging morons like Trump.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:46 am

Diplomacy is wasted on Trump, he can not understand the concept, doubtless his staff have tried to make it simple for him but even that has failed. Open the White House doors and let some fresh air in soon.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
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Redd
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:08 pm

mdsh00 wrote:
ual763 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

We had an agreement with Iran in the form of the JCPOA that Iran was complying with. Then the US unilaterally pulled out and reimposed sanctions.


Must have missed the press conference where the USDOS and also Israel’s intelligence community provided photo evidence that Iran was NOT complying with the treaty. Right after that, we backed out. They must not have covered it on CNN or the BBC...


Right. And how did WMD in Iraq (yellow cake anyone?) turn out?



They're still looking, I'm sure they'll turn up.
 
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EstherLouise
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:51 pm

Most Americans, especially those with right leanings, due to their penchant for shunning advanced education and knowledge of the world, see "Iran" and assume an invasion can't be any worse than the 2003 invasion of Iraq. For all I know, they see that the spelling of the two countries is similar and assume that's where the similarity ends. Hell.... they don't even have a clue that one is Sunni and the other is Shia... or bother to understand the difference. I'm not sure how loyal the Iranian people are to the current government and its leaders, but I suspect they're pretty patriotic, otherwise we would have heard more about any cases of dissension over the years. The level of that loyalty is very important to consider when discussing possible invasion plans.

Iran is a big and powerful country with a huge military. They're well-staffed and armed to the hilt with modern weaponry. Any kind of invasion would be met with fierce military and potential civilian resistance. And it will not be a one-month-long skirmish, as found with Iraq. It would last for years and be fought on multiple, wide-spread fronts. The United States would be on their own in the fighting; the likelihood of our traditional allies joining the fight is unlikely, as evidenced by their continuing membership in the monitoring of Iran's nuclear program. The allies claim, until the past couple weeks, that Iran is in complete compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015 and have no reason to join in the fight.

That said, is the US military prepared to fight a large, enduring war? Do we really have enough soldiers, Marines, sailors, and airmen in the ranks right now to get the job done? And what will it cost? We're still feeling the economic effects of the Iraq War. Finally, what's the real objective? There's no proof, other than President Trump's boisterous claims of impropriety, that Iran is screwing up enough to warrant invasion. Yeah, they're playing nasty here and there in the Gulf of Oman at the moment, but those are minor skirmishes that I believe are simply reactions to our unjustified rhetoric.
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olle
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:48 pm

I do not say that we shall blame neither USA, Israel or uk that all strange Arab regimes in the region.

What I try to say is that any countries around the world has a long and bad experience of European empires now partly replaced by USA.

Iran had a regime that as I understand was quit deasent until usa put the shah in place. Chile got a strange left wing government but was it not the Chilean people's job to get rid of it?

The work of France and uk during 1915 to 1920 created many of today's problems etc, where both Palestinians and Jews became victims of history.

What EU, Obama regime etc tried to change this by showing to the Arab world that we can be trusted. Trust takes time and there was an understanding this road to something new in terms or relations was not going to be easy. Now this work is destroyed.
 
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seb146
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:59 am

olle wrote:
I do not say that we shall blame neither USA, Israel or uk that all strange Arab regimes in the region.

What I try to say is that any countries around the world has a long and bad experience of European empires now partly replaced by USA.

Iran had a regime that as I understand was quit deasent until usa put the shah in place. Chile got a strange left wing government but was it not the Chilean people's job to get rid of it?

The work of France and uk during 1915 to 1920 created many of today's problems etc, where both Palestinians and Jews became victims of history.

What EU, Obama regime etc tried to change this by showing to the Arab world that we can be trusted. Trust takes time and there was an understanding this road to something new in terms or relations was not going to be easy. Now this work is destroyed.


Obama tried to strengthen and make Iran an ally. Unlike Reagan and Bush I and Bush II. At least Obama tried for peace. The orange one effed things up so he could claim victory and his base will defend it for some reason. The treaty Obama agreed to was not perfect but a heck of a lot better than what we have now!
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
GDB
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:31 am

EstherLouise wrote:
Most Americans, especially those with right leanings, due to their penchant for shunning advanced education and knowledge of the world, see "Iran" and assume an invasion can't be any worse than the 2003 invasion of Iraq. For all I know, they see that the spelling of the two countries is similar and assume that's where the similarity ends. Hell.... they don't even have a clue that one is Sunni and the other is Shia... or bother to understand the difference. I'm not sure how loyal the Iranian people are to the current government and its leaders, but I suspect they're pretty patriotic, otherwise we would have heard more about any cases of dissension over the years. The level of that loyalty is very important to consider when discussing possible invasion plans.

Iran is a big and powerful country with a huge military. They're well-staffed and armed to the hilt with modern weaponry. Any kind of invasion would be met with fierce military and potential civilian resistance. And it will not be a one-month-long skirmish, as found with Iraq. It would last for years and be fought on multiple, wide-spread fronts. The United States would be on their own in the fighting; the likelihood of our traditional allies joining the fight is unlikely, as evidenced by their continuing membership in the monitoring of Iran's nuclear program. The allies claim, until the past couple weeks, that Iran is in complete compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015 and have no reason to join in the fight.

That said, is the US military prepared to fight a large, enduring war? Do we really have enough soldiers, Marines, sailors, and airmen in the ranks right now to get the job done? And what will it cost? We're still feeling the economic effects of the Iraq War. Finally, what's the real objective? There's no proof, other than President Trump's boisterous claims of impropriety, that Iran is screwing up enough to warrant invasion. Yeah, they're playing nasty here and there in the Gulf of Oman at the moment, but those are minor skirmishes that I believe are simply reactions to our unjustified rhetoric.


That ignorance reached the top in 2003, where the sitting President asked in exasperation when told of different groups in Iraq, 'Sunni, Shia, I thought they were all Muslims'.
Not at least knowledgeable like his Dad then, yet G W Bush was Ike or FDR compared to the current Shitbird (which should really be his Security Service codename).
Then as now, a creepy bunch of Draft Dodging superhawks, are making the running, aided by their nominal boss not really having a clue.

They were so obsessed about Iraq, from the moment G W Bush took office, they took the eye off the ball regarding terrorism, didn't care, not interested. Even the day after Sept 11th they were focused on ways to bring Iraq in to the fray, to blame them, despite there being no proof and their own as well as other leading Intel agencies, knowing it was nonsense.
 
olle
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:32 pm

Iran has the possibility to develop it semi democratic elections with an extreme religious overhead into something similar to Scandinavians and UK democratic countries.

Saudi Arabia and its close relation ship with USA and how USA and the west accepts the regime I honestly do not understand.

if we still have a goal to over time getting regimes in the Arabic world similar to what we for example see in Tunisia, I consider of all bad things Iran is closer then Saudi Arabia.

In this, I consider that west, and I include Israel in this have an obligation to present an example of democratic models where all citizens are included with equal rights.
I therefore do not agree with neither USA nor Israel that we shall compare us with the conduct of how people is treated in Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran not even Russia. We shall have a higher standard and we shall be an example.
 
olle
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:00 pm

Regarding Isarael, that I try to avoid to mention while the discussion normally get locked and freaks out in all directions, I think it is a distinct moment before and after 1973.

Before 1973 I consider that Israel was totally under constant threat to be driven into the sea. The Arabic countries used the Palestinian cause to make a anti Israel and anti west / colonial game and lost terrible.

After 1973 and special in the 1980s Israel as a nuclear, regional superpower did not really have any extensional threat against Israel as nation. I cannot see any nation in the close area that today can give an really threat to Israel.

I think that sometimes when discussing this and special EU standpoints in this USA and Israel forgets that Eu countries such as west germany, Sweden Finland probably understands Israel position better then Israel understands. These countries had a situation during the cold war with Soviet union wanting to destroy these nations every day of the year.

after 1973 or 1980 therefore the focus changed from the survival of Israel to the second victim of the 1948 situation. The Palestinians. I do think it is time that Israel from a position of strength get this problem solved in such a way that gives Israel peace and Palestinians dignity and a future.
 
westgate
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:21 pm

Spar wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Indeed. Trump will start WW3 just to piss off Obama.

And to solidify Jewish support in 2020.

While not all American Jews are rabid Zionists, they almost all will vote as they're told when it comes to issues affecting Israel's "security".


Most American Jews, or at least a very significant proportion of them, are in fact quite securalised and are from Reform Jewish backgrounds. They predominantly live in large urban areas in the blue states and will almost always vote for Democratic candidates in any election regardless of what their stance on Israel is. Birthright Israel was actually established by Israel to combat this growing anti-Zionist and anti-Israel sentiment that is increasingly growing among American Jews, especially the younger generations. With Birthright, Israel had hoped that by giving young American Jews a free trip to the 'homeland', that it would be enough to convince them to support Israel in the future by voting for the 'correct' candidates and parties. But like I already mentioned, most of these kids will be coming from very liberal backgrounds and very liberal parts of the country. A free trip to Israel would never convince any of them to vote Republican if they weren't already going to do so anyway.

Those from more conservative or Hasidic backgrounds as well as from the older generations are the ones more likely to vote Republican or for any candidate who supports Israel. The older generations are quickly dissapearing, so their impact is rapidly shrinking. They do still however hold significant sway in Florida though, which can make a big difference considering that it's a major bellwether/swing state.

What really makes a difference in American politics is that there are a few incredibly wealthy and extremely powerful American Jews who absolutely do support Israel 100%, and there is no amount of money they wouldn't give for their cause. As American politics are unfortunately heavily skewed towards lobbying and donations, these individuals hold severe clout in terms of American policy towards Isreal and the Middle East in general. On the other hand, the average American Jew is likely far too securalised and far too liberal to even care what happens to Israel these days, and in many cases would be much more sympathetic to the plight of Palestine instead.
Last edited by westgate on Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:34 pm

Thank you, westgate, for your enlightening post.
 
Spar
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:51 pm

westgate wrote:
Most American Jews, or at least a very significant proportion of them, are in fact quite securalised and are from Reform Jewish backgrounds. They predominantly live in large urban areas in the blue states and will almost always vote for Democratic candidates in any election regardless of what their stance on Israel is. Birthright Israel was actually established by Israel to combat this growing anti-Zionist and anti-Israel sentiment that is increasingly growing among American Jews, especially the younger generations. With Birthright, Israel had hoped that by giving young American Jews a free trip to the 'homeland', that it would be enough to convince them to support Israel in the future by voting for the 'correct' candidates and parties. But like I already mentioned, most of these kids will be coming from very liberal backgrounds and very liberal parts of the country. A free trip to Israel would never convince any of them to vote Republican if they weren't already going to do so anyway.

Those from more conservative or Hasidic backgrounds as well as from the older generations are the ones more likely to vote Republican or for any candidate who supports Israel. The older generations are quickly dissapearing, so their impact is rapidly shrinking. They do still however hold significant sway in Florida though, which can make a big difference considering that it's a major bellwether/swing state.

What really makes a difference in American politics is that there are a few incredibly wealthy and extremely powerful American Jews who absolutely do support Israel 100%, and there is no amount of money they wouldn't give for their cause. As American politics are unfortunately heavily skewed towards lobbying and donations, these individuals hold severe clout in terms of American policy towards Isreal and the Middle East in general. On the other hand, the average American Jew is likely far too securalised and far too liberal to even care what happens to Israel these days, and in many cases would be much more sympathetic to the plight of Palestine instead.


Your assertion that "the average American Jew "is likely far too secularized and far too liberal to even care what happens to Israel these days" is patently false; they care and they vote. They vote for Israel's survival because that is how the subject is presented to them; they are reminded of the holocaust on an almost daily basis and that is what they know. It is a black and white issue for American Jews, with no shades of grey. The idea of putting pressure on Israel to curtail the expansion program has never been allowed to become an issue; the fact that it is Israel who controls whether there will be peace in the ME or not is not even a consideration.

Your attempt to present support for Israel as a Democrat vs Republican issue is also off base. Democrats may lack a connection to the end of the world Fundamentalist Christian nutcases, and they don't have a covey of outspoken war hawks in their midst; but they have never been slackers when it comes to blindly supporting Israel: Rashida Tlaib does not define the Democratic party's platform on Israel. Had Hillary won in 2016, US support for Israel would be the same as now. Every Dem President from LBJ to Obama has fallen in line for Israel.

It is true that as a group, Jews tend to vote liberal and so support Dems on local issues, but when it comes to Congressional or Presidential elections they fall in line and vote Israel by a large margin. If you don't believe that, just ask Chuck Percy, Pete McCloskey or Paul Findley, they are the last to challenge the Israel lobby (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Israe ... ign_Policy).

There are Reform Jews in Israel that question the Zionist program, they say things there that can't be said here, but their political opposition the the perpetual expansion program isn't carried over to American Reform Jews.
 
westgate
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:59 am

Spar wrote:

Your assertion that "the average American Jew "is likely far too secularized and far too liberal to even care what happens to Israel these days" is patently false; they care and they vote. They vote for Israel's survival because that is how the subject is presented to them; they are reminded of the holocaust on an almost daily basis and that is what they know. It is a black and white issue for American Jews, with no shades of grey.

That is an incredibly condescending generalisation of American Jews. The Holocaust propaganda is indeed strong, however that does not mean that the majority of American Jews are brainwashed by it to such an extent that they blindly support Israel at any cost. In fact for the younger generations, learning about the Holocaust can actually make them much more sympathetic towards the Palestinians, as it's not difficult for anyone, no matter what the circumstances, Jewish or not, to draw apt comparisons between the way the Nazis treated the Jews to how the Israeli's currently treat the Palestinians. And this is doubly true if a young American Jew is growing up in a very liberal, urban and multicultural part of the country, where most Jews tend to live anyway.

Regardless, this discussion is basically about what kind of clout American Jews have in the American political system in terms of being responsible for getting pro-Israel politicians elected. With a population of between 7-10 million out of about 330 million Americans (so only 2 to 3 percent), their numbers alone suggest that their influence is ultimately next to none.

At the end of the day, it is in fact the Christian conservatives in America that have much more influence in terms of the USA supporting Israel, as there are many, many more of them than American Jews, and especially considering that their more extremist types actually believe that in order for the second coming of Christ to occur, the Jews must first return to the Holy Land !!!

And I have no doubt that the Israel lobby in America is incredibly powerful, however that's primary because of a small number of incredibly wealthy individuals who donate to the cause, and not because the majority of American Jews are ultimately effecting American elections to such an extent that this results in pro-Israel candidates being elected.

American politicians, including Democrats, don't blindly support Israel because they are afraid of losing an election due to the power of the American Jewish vote, but because they are afraid of losing the funding that a select group of incredibly wealthy American Jews provide to them.
 
Spar
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:16 am

westgate wrote:
That is an incredibly condescending generalisation of American Jews.
There was nothing condescending in what I wrote above, it was an accurate portrayal of the state of affairs of Jewish American politics. Of course it's a generalization; the voting pattern of a broad group can be described in no other way.

westgate wrote:
that does not mean that the majority of American Jews are brainwashed
Brainwashed is your term, not mine. Such hyperbole doesn't belong in a discussion on the practices and effects of a lobbying group. Lobbying groups are a fact of life, as are public relations firms; we need to discuss these points as adults if we are to make any progress in developing this story.

westgate wrote:
this discussion is basically about what kind of clout American Jews have in the American political system in terms of being responsible for getting pro-Israel politicians elected. With a population of only between 7-10 million out of about 330 million Americans (so only 2 to 3 percent), their numbers alone suggest that their influence is ultimately next to none.
If you believe that Jews as a group have little sway in American politics you must be living in some kind of an isolation cell.

westgate wrote:
At the end of the day, it is in fact the Christian conservatives in America that have much more influence in terms of the USA supporting Israel, as there are many, many more of them than American Jews, and especially considering that their more extremist types actually believe that in order for the second coming of Christ occur, the Jews must first return to the Holy Land !!!
The Christian conservatives are a strong part of the current rightwing coalition but the Israeli Lobby has been a dominant force in American politics from times long before the current blooming of attention to the Christian conservatives. Have you read John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt's paper on the subject of the Israeli Lobby? Are you familiar with their work? Judging from your above questioning whether "Jews" have any political clout in the US at all and your belief that what power Jewish people have comes from a few wealthy "individuals", I suspect that you haven't read any of it.

westgate wrote:
American politicians, including Democrats, don't blindly support Israel because they are afraid of losing an election due to the power of the American Jewish vote, but because they are afraid of losing the funding that a select group of incredibly wealthy American Jews provide to them.
American politicians, methodically and tenaciously court the Jewish vote. They spend what might seem inordinate amounts of time speaking to Jewish groups and Jewish political movers. There are only a few congressional districts where a candidate can forgo the approval of AIPAC and have any hope of winning. Crossing that line is not something to be taken lightly.

Here's an informative piece on the subject and it supports your focus on money, although it suggests a different source than the ones you suggest.
https://www.thenation.com/article/aipac ... -semitism/
 
AeroVega
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:56 am

Spar wrote:
westgate wrote:
that does not mean that the majority of American Jews are brainwashed
Brainwashed is your term, not mine. Such hyperbole doesn't belong in a discussion on the practices and effects of a lobbying group. Lobbying groups are a fact of life, as are public relations firms; we need to discuss these points as adults if we are to make any progress in developing this story.


Said the person who describes Israel's treatment of the Palestinians as genocide. Pot, meet kettle.

Spar wrote:
westgate wrote:
American politicians, including Democrats, don't blindly support Israel because they are afraid of losing an election due to the power of the American Jewish vote, but because they are afraid of losing the funding that a select group of incredibly wealthy American Jews provide to them.
American politicians, methodically and tenaciously court the Jewish vote. They spend what might seem inordinate amounts of time speaking to Jewish groups and Jewish political movers. There are only a few congressional districts where a candidate can forgo the approval of AIPAC and have any hope of winning. Crossing that line is not something to be taken lightly.

Here's an informative piece on the subject and it supports your focus on money, although it suggests a different source than the ones you suggest.
https://www.thenation.com/article/aipac ... -semitism/


That paper confirms everything that westgate said. It appears to me that you two are in violent agreement.
 
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fallap
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Re: Will the United States invade Iran?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:34 pm

Unless Trump can convince the American people that Iran constitute as much as a threat as Iraq supposedly did, then changes of an actual invasion of Iran are bleak. The cost in men & material needed to occupy Iran would be steep and divert American military assets away from where they are needed, such as the East Asian region to balance against a rising China.
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