olle
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Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:03 am

I am working at a major producer of trucks.

I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.

What will happen with oilsector industry, what will be the economical effect both for oil importing countries such as central Europe and exporters as me, norway, usa etc?

Will countries use as much reserve currency?

How much of world trade will dissapear?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:09 am

Wow, in this post you would like to discuss the change of the whole world order. The impact of the shifting economy towards renewable energies etc. Small post, big implications that could be discussed in a dissertation and you would only scratch the surface of it.

To start it off:

I am working at a major producer of trucks.

I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.


You would be fine for the near future, the replacement cycle for going green will hit in the near future. The impact of going electric - or probably hydrogen powered, would be my guess for heavy trucks - will mean more work for you. For your employer, will mean less work in replacement parts, much less maintenance in electric-powered vehicles and will have a longer lifespan. I like the example of a taxi company at Schiphol, they used to replace their diesel-powered Mercedeses at 300.000km, they had an experiment with a Tesla, they decided to drive it to 1.000.000km, so that means two fewer cars produced for them, that will impact your company in the future.

What will happen with oilsector industry


Will be gone, obviously, as well as the coil sector and gas sector.

, what will be the economical effect both for oil importing countries such as central Europe and exporters as me, norway, usa etc?


Overall, sustainability is about using resources effectively, so overall things will be more efficient thus cheaper. Many cost aren't taking into account with fossil fuel burning: health care cost, the impact of climate change etc. those cost are paid by the government.

Fossil fuel exporting countries will need to shift to other means of being relevant in the new world order, Norway will be fine, US also. More impact can be expected for countries truly dependent on oil or gas, countries like Venezuela - you can see the impact of this right now, because they haven't invested enough in the oil industry so it is breaking down - Saudi Arabia, Russia etc. etc.

Oil importing countries will be more self-sufficient so less dependent on other countries. And for central Europe, they will be less dependent on Russia, so that is especially good for them - see Ukraine if you do something Putin doesn't like. So good for them.

Will countries use as much reserve currency?


that will be up to debate.

How much of world trade will disappear?


My guess is none, the means of transport might be replaced.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Airstud
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:45 am

olle wrote:
I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.


Ummmm....

Where exactly do you see this?

Also take note that the major oil companies have re-identified themselves as "energy companies" as they seek to be well-invested in electric vehicles and other fuel alternatives when and if those take over the oil companies' usual markets.
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Kiwirob
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:03 am

Oil won’t be going away just because the transport sector stops requiring it, it will still be needed for chemicals, big pharma and plastics.

I believe hydrogen will be the future for heavy transport.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:15 am

Airstud wrote:
olle wrote:
I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.


Ummmm....

Where exactly do you see this?

Also take note that the major oil companies have re-identified themselves as "energy companies" as they seek to be well-invested in electric vehicles and other fuel alternatives when and if those take over the oil companies' usual markets.


I happen to know a bit about Shell, and no oil companies don't have re-invented themselves just yet. Shell is still investing 98% of their capital in fossil fuels, not renewables, that might go down to 90% in 2021, but seeing is believing. The problem on the short term is that there is more money to be made in oil than in renewables, the problem on the long term is that the company has no business plan when the energy transition is completed: carbon bubble is there.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
B777LRF
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:18 am

I, for one, am looking forward to the likes of KSA and Kuwait reverting to a non-oil derived economy, driving camels, harvesting dates and diving for pearls for a living. Bit more concerned for the likes of Norway, but since they're not complete idiots and ignorants, they'll carve a niche in post-oil world.
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JJJ
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:40 am

olle wrote:
I am working at a major producer of trucks.

I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.


"Transport" as in what? City delivery and short distances seem OK for electric, but long distance and heavy loads will take a while until the issues with battery weight and charging speeds are solved.

Not to mention that sea and air transport will keep being fossil for a good while.

And then there's power generation, plastics, chemicals.....
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:21 pm

Airstud wrote:
olle wrote:
I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.


Ummmm....

Where exactly do you see this?

Also take note that the major oil companies have re-identified themselves as "energy companies" as they seek to be well-invested in electric vehicles and other fuel alternatives when and if those take over the oil companies' usual markets.


Normally the calculation of a heavy truck is 1/3 for cost of the truck 1/3 driver 1/3 fuel.

In Europe where the major actors is located driving the industry is working close together for develop hybrid electric and v2x (vehicle to anything) systems that will in around 15 years time result in self driving after passing some milesstones such as platooning.

electrification https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mBwvQwzBxjk


Self driving https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LLp4Ck0CXb0


Platooning https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lx9EFJ6qgZc

With 2/3 of cost that comes from fuel and driver this development is will be implented the next 10 to 15 years.

Together with Paris agreements for climate and the ME and Russia situation I see that EU27 will be leading this development. And it happens now.


Regarding USA i do not see a major problem in general but state per state is more complicated. Norway will go from an income per capita extremly hig to a more general Scandinavia level.

Middle east except Iran, Russia build today their economies on export oil.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:47 pm

Oil won't go away. Gasoline and diesel is just a by product of the refining process. We use oil for all kinds of other stuff. Right now this is the distribution:

Gasoline 19.5
Diesel/home heating oil 9.2
Kerosene-type jet fuel 4.1
Heavy, residual fuel oils 2.3
Still gas 1.9
Coke 1.9
Liquefied refinery gases 1.9
Asphalt and road oil 1.3
Petrochemical feedstocks 1.2
Lubricants 0.5
Kerosene 0.2
Other 0.2

Numbers are in gallons produced from per one barrel of oil. The breakdown will simply shift away from the top end to elsewhere. Of course this will certainly have a financial impact and demand will drop.
 
mham001
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:35 pm

Lots to talk about on that subject. The geo-political implications are huge and already being played out with the sudden rise and dominance of US fracking combined with a slowing of demand. Various despots around the world do not have money to make trouble and OPEC has lost considerable influence over the world's economies.

One thing I fear however is that we will trade one monopolistic energy source for another. My state and electric provider have jacked up electric prices higher than gasoline while simultaneously pushing people towards electric. I can fuel my large F250 Super Duty with gasoline for less cost than my Nissan Leaf at public chargers. It shouldn't be that way - the state and my own convicted-felon utility provider are simply the new evil.
 
JJJ
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:22 pm

mham001 wrote:
Lots to talk about on that subject. The geo-political implications are huge and already being played out with the sudden rise and dominance of US fracking combined with a slowing of demand. Various despots around the world do not have money to make trouble and OPEC has lost considerable influence over the world's economies.


I'm not entirely certain of that.

Back in 1973 45% of the world's oil production went for transport, nowadays it's almost 64%

Even if we dialed back oil dependence back to 1973 levels we still need to remember how things went when OPEC felt like messing with everyone.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:58 pm

mham001 wrote:
One thing I fear however is that we will trade one monopolistic energy source for another. My state and electric provider have jacked up electric prices higher than gasoline while simultaneously pushing people towards electric. I can fuel my large F250 Super Duty with gasoline for less cost than my Nissan Leaf at public chargers. It shouldn't be that way - the state and my own convicted-felon utility provider are simply the new evil.


True, but electric energy has the benefit that anyone could be an energy producer with putting PV-panels on the roof. I don't know how things are in the US - gas is cheap, but don't know how this is with electricity - but in the Netherlands a large portion of the electricity bill contains taxes (and gas as well).
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:14 pm

This is way more complex than just simply switching from one to the other and reaches far beyond vehicles.

The woke western countries will stop using petrol vehicles via draconian policies and taxation - this is the reason that climate change ideology is driven by the left which is well versed in that kind of thing.The west will wonder why the rest of the world doesn't immediately follow suit and also why the fossil fuel societies are still thriving compared to their overtaxed 'utopias' with high levels of social dependency, civil disobedience, mental health issues and other general dissatisfaction.
You can make your own fuel source out of ethanol or anything really, you can't make your own reliable lithium ion batteries safely and cheaply so for someone who uses an outrigger boat powered by a generator or a scooter that runs on home distilled alcohol or cow shit in society doesn't have access to a power supply that is not overburdened already and subject to brownouts/blackouts and corrupt government manipulation . Each country will still do what is good for themselves and what their people can easily obtain and afford.
Being green is a luxury in western democratic socialist countries that most of the world cannot afford because they although they don't have social securities they also don't tax their citizens who earn much less out of existence. In countries where the average income is far less there will always be demand for refillable fuel powered vehicles. I think it would be far more prudent to diversify our options so that we have many options in parallel, not replacing one dependency with another.. Each country is different based on the specific resources and climates they have.
I would certainly not want a lithium electric car if I lived in Irkutsk or Iqaluit where it gets so cold that the range would be significantly reduced (40% less at 20F/ -6C so imagine when it gets to -30 and beyond!!) and potentially life threatening if it runs out in that environment. The same applies for other countries that don't enjoy the same levels of personal safety as we have.
Once the initial green fad has passed, and we realise the effects aren't as bad as what we thought (maybe even benefits??) life will move on. The world will keep plenty of the green ideology, but it will also realise that plenty of it is also dangerous for survival (no point worrying about the future generation if the current generation can't survive effectively enough to be in position to reproduce and raise the next generation to adulthood)
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:28 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
This is way more complex than just simply switching from one to the other and reaches far beyond vehicles.

The woke western countries will stop using petrol vehicles via draconian policies and taxation - this is the reason that climate change ideology is driven by the left which is well versed in that kind of thing.The west will wonder why the rest of the world doesn't immediately follow suit and also why the fossil fuel societies are still thriving compared to their overtaxed 'utopias' with high levels of social dependency, civil disobedience, mental health issues and other general dissatisfaction.
You can make your own fuel source out of ethanol or anything really, you can't make your own reliable lithium ion batteries safely and cheaply so for someone who uses an outrigger boat powered by a generator or a scooter that runs on home distilled alcohol or cow shit in society doesn't have access to a power supply that is not overburdened already and subject to brownouts/blackouts and corrupt government manipulation . Each country will still do what is good for themselves and what their people can easily obtain and afford.
Being green is a luxury in western democratic socialist countries that most of the world cannot afford because they although they don't have social securities they also don't tax their citizens who earn much less out of existence. In countries where the average income is far less there will always be demand for refillable fuel powered vehicles. I think it would be far more prudent to diversify our options so that we have many options in parallel, not replacing one dependency with another.. Each country is different based on the specific resources and climates they have.
I would certainly not want a lithium electric car if I lived in Irkutsk or Iqaluit where it gets so cold that the range would be significantly reduced (40% less at 20F/ -6C so imagine when it gets to -30 and beyond!!) and potentially life threatening if it runs out in that environment. The same applies for other countries that don't enjoy the same levels of personal safety as we have.
Once the initial green fad has passed, and we realise the effects aren't as bad as what we thought (maybe even benefits??) life will move on. The world will keep plenty of the green ideology, but it will also realise that plenty of it is also dangerous for survival (no point worrying about the future generation if the current generation can't survive effectively enough to be in position to reproduce and raise the next generation to adulthood)


Sorry, what a complete and utter bullocks. Have a look in China what they are doing. And for the developing countries, well if you don't have any fossil infrastructure, you are at an advantage, you can just directly move to renewable infrastructure. Just look at what has happened with telephones in Africa, they didn't bother with landlines, no they went straight to mobile phone service, same with Banks, no offices everywhere, just a service on your mobile phone. So they skip a step or two.

Once the initial green fad has passed, and we realise the effects aren't as bad as what we thought (maybe even benefits??) life will move on.


I know a lovely golden bridge you can buy :rotfl: Each and every time the scientist speak out, things are worse than predicted, not better. So you do believe in unicorns. We need to act now, not a wait and see mentality, now.

But let's cut a deal, in places, where the temperature falls regularly below -30, you can have fossil fuels cars, the rest needs to be fossil-free, deal?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:18 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Sorry, what a complete and utter bullocks. Have a look in China what they are doing. And for the developing countries, well if you don't have any fossil infrastructure, you are at an advantage, you can just directly move to renewable infrastructure. Just look at what has happened with telephones in Africa, they didn't bother with landlines, no they went straight to mobile phone service, same with Banks, no offices everywhere, just a service on your mobile phone. So they skip a step or two.


China has done nothing more than token gestures at environmental stewardship for propaganda purposes. They operate the dirtiest economy in the world and the vast majority of their utility construction remains coal-fired power stations. China's emissions will continue to grow for decades.

It's also pretty humorous to say that developing nations are at an advantage if they "don't have any fossil infrastructure." If you lack that infrastructure today, then you live in squalor. It's no reward for the people living by candlelight that the utility company is saved from decommissioning a coal-fired power plant because it never existed. To your point, small-scale renewables like solar PV and micro-wind indeed have great potential for remote parts of Africa where grid infrastructure would be prohibitive. But the developing economies that successfully transformed themselves into emerging developed economies all did so with great investment in conventional hydrocarbon infrastructure. That will remain a practical reality for another century.

Back to the original question, I work for a major energy infrastructure development firm. Looking to 2050, our baseline scenario estimates that the worldwide oil & gas consumption will increase by about 50% over the next 30 years. That's actually a pretty low growth rate of only 1.5% per year. We also predict the balance of oil & gas to shift towards more gas production. In the "high-technology" scenario, e.g. renewables and EVs exceed expectations and so forth, the world consumes the same volume of hydrocarbons in 2050 as they do today. We base this estimate from the consensus of publicly-available energy studies published by respected authorities like EIA.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:10 pm

And we will no longer need to commit $trillions on futile unending wars in the Middle East. And a number of us think that the Middle East may do a whole hell of a lot better without oil rich government leaders and without foreign armies creating all the turmoil.

Companies are astoundingly unable to make transitions in basic technology switches. Electric will creep in, and predictions at this point are by the mid 20s gas will see serious oversupply problems. And if there is anything oil companies cannot do, it is dealing with oversupply. So far as I know there are no oil companies who have become leaders in non-petroleum energy supplies - they talk (as do people on this site) but they do not do.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:09 pm

A line-haul tractor-trailer rig, in the US, operates about 18-20 hours a day. When batteries can produce 400hp and be recharged in the time it takes for a ham and eggs breakfast, I’ll believe in electric trucks.
 
stratclub
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:35 pm

The "green New Deal" was never originally meant to "Save The Planet". Congresswoman AOC was placed in Congress and is a puppet of the SDA (Social Democrats of America) and her SDA handler (Chief of Staff) flat out stated that The Green New Deal originally had nothing to do with the planets health. It is/was a tool to fool the American people into accepting Socialism and would totally devastate our way of life through the hundreds of trillions of dollars it would cost to implement.

The problem with going all electric is where are we going to get the electricity from? Except for nuclear, the technology doesn't exist or is even on the horizon that could come anywhere close to replacing fossil fuel. We need to take back the science of climate management away from the politicians and give it back to real scientists that will identify the realities and find real solutions instead of supporting the climate alarmist that are using Climate Change Hysteria to support political agendas. Ask these "Climate Experts" like Al Gore why non of the doomsday climate predictions have ever come true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fLd0duzT6g
Senator Mike Lee gave a hilarious presentation about how much the Green New Deal is a Utopian Fairy Tale that would destroy our way of life while doing close to nothing for the planet. When voted on in the senate, the Green New Deal didn't get one yes vote.
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:29 pm

A relative of mine works in a school in Angola. One family that runs the country gain money on selling electric generators because the electric grid used to be bad. Even if the electric grid improves the electric is out at least one hour per day more or less the same hour. All people bought an electric generator.

Now people start to buy solar panels with a battery. The investment is more or less the same but cheaper to run. Suddenly they recognize if they invest in a few more panels - they are independent of the grid. So first panels replace the generators, and now more and more households disconnects from the grid together with as you mentioned more remote locations gets electric energy.

In Europe and China electric is the word of the day. Euro6 and China6 emission restrictions and costs as I mentioned 1/3 of the cost of transport in these regions. And if USA wants to exort trucks, busses and cars USA bette change fast.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:26 pm

Dutchy wrote:
mham001 wrote:
One thing I fear however is that we will trade one monopolistic energy source for another. My state and electric provider have jacked up electric prices higher than gasoline while simultaneously pushing people towards electric. I can fuel my large F250 Super Duty with gasoline for less cost than my Nissan Leaf at public chargers. It shouldn't be that way - the state and my own convicted-felon utility provider are simply the new evil.


True, but electric energy has the benefit that anyone could be an energy producer with putting PV-panels on the roof. I don't know how things are in the US - gas is cheap, but don't know how this is with electricity - but in the Netherlands a large portion of the electricity bill contains taxes (and gas as well).


Since nearly half the people living in Europe live in mult-occupancy buildings not everyone can just slap on solar panels. In other parts of Europe like Scandinavia we get a lot of snow which effectively reduces the nimbler of days the panels will produce electricity. It’s not as easy as you appear to think it is.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:29 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
A line-haul tractor-trailer rig, in the US, operates about 18-20 hours a day. When batteries can produce 400hp and be recharged in the time it takes for a ham and eggs breakfast, I’ll believe in electric trucks.


And a lot of owner operator teams will run 24/7 with driver swaps as well. A lot of husband and wife teams work like this in Australia, plus where do you charge a truck in remote locations?
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:34 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
A line-haul tractor-trailer rig, in the US, operates about 18-20 hours a day. When batteries can produce 400hp and be recharged in the time it takes for a ham and eggs breakfast, I’ll believe in electric trucks.


And a lot of owner operator teams will run 24/7 with driver swaps as well. A lot of husband and wife teams work like this in Australia, plus where do you charge a truck in remote locations?
 
mham001
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:48 pm

olle wrote:
In Europe and China electric is the word of the day. Euro6 and China6 emission restrictions and costs as I mentioned 1/3 of the cost of transport in these regions. And if USA wants to exort trucks, busses and cars USA bette change fast.


Change what? We bought more electrics per capita than Europe in 2018 and have more cumulatively. From what I read, in 2019 the most popular electric in many European countries is either Made in USA or Japan. In fact, Europe's diesel blunder has cost it dearly, no European manufacturer is close to competing well with Tesla. China boasts huge numbers but most of those things are not legal on any roads of any developed country and numbers are dropping substantially this year as they curb subsidies. Europe is now buying more hybrids and that;s great, but there is no reason to criticize the US as laggards. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_ ... by_country

George Bush II can be credited with steering the US towards electric over diesel, it was a policy decision that unleashed large amounts of money for r&d at the national labs and private enterprise. You, me and the Chinese are benefiting from that today.
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:58 pm

mham001 wrote:
olle wrote:
In Europe and China electric is the word of the day. Euro6 and China6 emission restrictions and costs as I mentioned 1/3 of the cost of transport in these regions. And if USA wants to exort trucks, busses and cars USA bette change fast.


Change what? We bought more electrics per capita than Europe in 2018 and have more cumulatively. From what I read, in 2019 the most popular electric in many European countries is either Made in USA or Japan. In fact, Europe's diesel blunder has cost it dearly, no European manufacturer is close to competing well with Tesla. China boasts huge numbers but most of those things are not legal on any roads of any developed country and numbers are dropping substantially this year as they curb subsidies. Europe is now buying more hybrids and that;s great, but there is no reason to criticize the US as laggards. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_ ... by_country

George Bush II can be credited with steering the US towards electric over diesel, it was a policy decision that unleashed large amounts of money for r&d at the national labs and private enterprise. You, me and the Chinese are benefiting from that today.


The EU carngroups kept to diesel too long, partly because much lower CO2 emission.

Things in general happens very fast now, with year 2023mentioned as magic year when electric car becomes cheaper to purchase then petrolnor diesel car.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:01 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
mham001 wrote:
One thing I fear however is that we will trade one monopolistic energy source for another. My state and electric provider have jacked up electric prices higher than gasoline while simultaneously pushing people towards electric. I can fuel my large F250 Super Duty with gasoline for less cost than my Nissan Leaf at public chargers. It shouldn't be that way - the state and my own convicted-felon utility provider are simply the new evil.


True, but electric energy has the benefit that anyone could be an energy producer with putting PV-panels on the roof. I don't know how things are in the US - gas is cheap, but don't know how this is with electricity - but in the Netherlands a large portion of the electricity bill contains taxes (and gas as well).


Since nearly half the people living in Europe live in mult-occupancy buildings not everyone can just slap on solar panels. In other parts of Europe like Scandinavia we get a lot of snow which effectively reduces the nimbler of days the panels will produce electricity. It’s not as easy as you appear to think it is.


Hence, EU cooperation, some parts of the EU will have more than enough energy, some parts are low and so make a total system which is stable. The plans are there. I never said it would be easy, households actually only are a minor part of the equation. And yes not everything has been solved yet, but we can do it, if we want, we just need the will to solve it. The technology is there to get us a large part of the way to move to renewables.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:04 pm

olle wrote:
mham001 wrote:
olle wrote:
In Europe and China electric is the word of the day. Euro6 and China6 emission restrictions and costs as I mentioned 1/3 of the cost of transport in these regions. And if USA wants to exort trucks, busses and cars USA bette change fast.


Change what? We bought more electrics per capita than Europe in 2018 and have more cumulatively. From what I read, in 2019 the most popular electric in many European countries is either Made in USA or Japan. In fact, Europe's diesel blunder has cost it dearly, no European manufacturer is close to competing well with Tesla. China boasts huge numbers but most of those things are not legal on any roads of any developed country and numbers are dropping substantially this year as they curb subsidies. Europe is now buying more hybrids and that;s great, but there is no reason to criticize the US as laggards. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_ ... by_country

George Bush II can be credited with steering the US towards electric over diesel, it was a policy decision that unleashed large amounts of money for r&d at the national labs and private enterprise. You, me and the Chinese are benefiting from that today.


The EU carngroups kept to diesel too long, partly because much lower CO2 emission.

Things in general happens very fast now, with year 2023mentioned as magic year when electric car becomes cheaper to purchase then petrolnor diesel car.


And that year is mentioned as peak fossil demand as well. So things are indeed moving fast.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:51 pm

With peak demand + a few years we will soon reach the point where supply is bigger then demand. USA, ME Russia with low production cost and exploring cost will be supplier to the end. Norway uk and a few other places where exploring is expensive will not invest in new oil fields but start to run the excisting until they are uneconomical
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:57 pm

olle wrote:
With peak demand + a few years we will soon reach the point where supply is bigger then demand. USA, ME Russia with low production cost and exploring cost will be supplier to the end. Norway uk and a few other places where exploring is expensive will not invest in new oil fields but start to run the excisting until they are uneconomical



True, there is the carbon bubble and what is means to different regions. As I understand it, Saudi Arabia is pomping up oil for about 5dollar per barrel, US, Russia and some other countries do it for more in the region of 50dollars. So indeed, the Middle East will be the last oil suppliers, but at much reduced return.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:32 pm

New oilfields on Norway cost 80 to 100 usd so all exploration is on hold. The oil cities like Stavanger is not what they used to be...
 
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casinterest
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:42 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Oil won't go away. Gasoline and diesel is just a by product of the refining process. We use oil for all kinds of other stuff. Right now this is the distribution:

Gasoline 19.5
Diesel/home heating oil 9.2
Kerosene-type jet fuel 4.1
Heavy, residual fuel oils 2.3
Still gas 1.9
Coke 1.9
Liquefied refinery gases 1.9
Asphalt and road oil 1.3
Petrochemical feedstocks 1.2
Lubricants 0.5
Kerosene 0.2
Other 0.2

Numbers are in gallons produced from per one barrel of oil. The breakdown will simply shift away from the top end to elsewhere. Of course this will certainly have a financial impact and demand will drop.


It will result in infrastructure changes to the current refineries as they will need to retool to crack the oil a bit differently. Also , the demand will plummet, as posted above. There is a lot of the barrel devoted to transport +50% depending on how you look at it. It will be a slow transition, but the Tesla Model 3 seems to be a game changer. The costs are comparable to a Corolla Model L , and it would seem that as superchargers roll out, these vehicles will take over. There is a transport Semi under development, along with a hybrid compact, and a Truck coming. In 5 or so years, there is going to be a shift out from oil and gas.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:06 am

olle wrote:
New oilfields on Norway cost 80 to 100 usd so all exploration is on hold. The oil cities like Stavanger is not what they used to be...


Interesting, so those fields might never be developed if the costs are that high. Same can be said for fields in Alaska, the North Sea in general - Aberdeen isn't what it used to be and a lot of deep-sea oil rigs might be in trouble as well. Good news for the planet though.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
FatCat
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:01 am

olle wrote:
I am working at a major producer of trucks.

I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.

What will happen with oilsector industry, what will be the economical effect both for oil importing countries such as central Europe and exporters as me, norway, usa etc?

Will countries use as much reserve currency?

How much of world trade will dissapear?

it will not
if you don't want to see the whole World's economy falling apart, it will not
and - by the way - oil is still, together with coal, the most used resource to produce electric power
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olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:27 am

FatCat wrote:
olle wrote:
I am working at a major producer of trucks.

I see that in less then a generation transport sector will go electric.

What will happen with oilsector industry, what will be the economical effect both for oil importing countries such as central Europe and exporters as me, norway, usa etc?

Will countries use as much reserve currency?

How much of world trade will dissapear?

it will not
if you don't want to see the whole World's economy falling apart, it will not
and - by the way - oil is still, together with coal, the most used resource to produce electric power


In germany today wind energy stand for the biggest power production and coal is today un economical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 11176.html
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:31 am

Wind and sun energy is today much cheaper then oil, gas and special coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsm ... d812e75a6b


No coal generated or nuclear electric power plant will be replace by coal or nuclear again.
 
FatCat
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:22 am

olle wrote:
Wind and sun energy is today much cheaper then oil, gas and special coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsm ... d812e75a6b


No coal generated or nuclear electric power plant will be replace by coal or nuclear again.

There is a great thus small minded "Greta-Hope" for green fields and happy cows all around the planet, that is largerly wrong and impossible to achieve.
Wind and sun generators are now on the edge for producing electrical power.
But Kernkraftwerken are still operative in Germany - and in France, and in Switzerland. Nuclear power is still very needed and replacing high power delivering nuclear power plants with thousands of high fans and sun mirrors in the countryside can be an option - but is it really?
Power demand is increasing all over the World - do not watch only the highly technlogical Germany, where Autobahns will receive wireless recharging asphalt in short time... try watching other less technological Countries. You really think that electrifying the whole road network of the Balcan Region is a thing that can be done in 20 - 30 years?
Also, electrical powered means of good's transportation is still a thing to work on. Intermodal road / train has never really taken off in southern Europe. I work really near an intermodal road / train terminal built 34 years ago and never used. There aren't many big Companies that use intermodal ... the only one that comes now into my mind is LKW Walther.
The discussion is very interesting indeed and we can chat about it for many many time. :-) I am very critic about the joy-happiness-World-saving by buying an electric car or planting fans all over the Country...
PS if you work for MAN you're one of my customer :-)
Aeroplane flies high
Turns left, looks right
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:03 pm

FatCat wrote:
olle wrote:
Wind and sun energy is today much cheaper then oil, gas and special coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsm ... d812e75a6b


No coal generated or nuclear electric power plant will be replace by coal or nuclear again.

There is a great thus small minded "Greta-Hope" for green fields and happy cows all around the planet, that is largerly wrong and impossible to achieve.
Wind and sun generators are now on the edge for producing electrical power.
But Kernkraftwerken are still operative in Germany - and in France, and in Switzerland. Nuclear power is still very needed and replacing high power delivering nuclear power plants with thousands of high fans and sun mirrors in the countryside can be an option - but is it really?
Power demand is increasing all over the World - do not watch only the highly technlogical Germany, where Autobahns will receive wireless recharging asphalt in short time... try watching other less technological Countries. You really think that electrifying the whole road network of the Balcan Region is a thing that can be done in 20 - 30 years?
Also, electrical powered means of good's transportation is still a thing to work on. Intermodal road / train has never really taken off in southern Europe. I work really near an intermodal road / train terminal built 34 years ago and never used. There aren't many big Companies that use intermodal ... the only one that comes now into my mind is LKW Walther.
The discussion is very interesting indeed and we can chat about it for many many time. :-) I am very critic about the joy-happiness-World-saving by buying an electric car or planting fans all over the Country...
PS if you work for MAN you're one of my customer :-)



I am partly agreeing with you if you consider a perspective 5 years. But in 20 years thing will have changed dramatically. I believe that 2040 therevwill beva law that no gasoline of person driven cars will be allowed on highways. Pretty much like horevand wagon in the 1940s.

One of the major change in history was the royal navy change from coal to oil 1904->1914. When the admiral saw that the range could be extended, more heavy guns installed, more ammonition stored in the same chip, things changed fast.
 
JJJ
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:20 pm

mham001 wrote:
olle wrote:
In Europe and China electric is the word of the day. Euro6 and China6 emission restrictions and costs as I mentioned 1/3 of the cost of transport in these regions. And if USA wants to exort trucks, busses and cars USA bette change fast.


Change what? We bought more electrics per capita than Europe in 2018 and have more cumulatively. From what I read, in 2019 the most popular electric in many European countries is either Made in USA or Japan. In fact, Europe's diesel blunder has cost it dearly, no European manufacturer is close to competing well with Tesla.


At the current rate Tesla will implode on their own, and will be bought out for pennies after bankruptcy.

They're not investing in anything (Capex - depreciation has been negative for a few quarters) and even with record deliveries they still lose money.

Tesla will be the Palm or Blackberry of electric cars.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:38 pm

JJJ wrote:
mham001 wrote:
olle wrote:
In Europe and China electric is the word of the day. Euro6 and China6 emission restrictions and costs as I mentioned 1/3 of the cost of transport in these regions. And if USA wants to exort trucks, busses and cars USA bette change fast.


Change what? We bought more electrics per capita than Europe in 2018 and have more cumulatively. From what I read, in 2019 the most popular electric in many European countries is either Made in USA or Japan. In fact, Europe's diesel blunder has cost it dearly, no European manufacturer is close to competing well with Tesla.


At the current rate Tesla will implode on their own, and will be bought out for pennies after bankruptcy.

They're not investing in anything (Capex - depreciation has been negative for a few quarters) and even with record deliveries they still lose money.

Tesla will be the Palm or Blackberry of electric cars.


You might be right, like you said, if that happens: technology will be bought by others so nothing is lost for the world. But more importantly, there are so many electric cars out there and there are still many more in the pipeline. Tesla has done a great job in letting the world see that it is possible and for that it will be remembered.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:58 pm

When vw and the other BIG manufactoring of cars like it do now entering the markets things change dramatically. They put them on locations where energy is cheap and low carbon like https://northvolt.com/production/ .

Tesla will have troble to compete against an organisation that can divide investments over millions cars and vehicles per year.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:12 pm

Good for the consumer, prices will come down further and the quality will improve, including range. Bad for the investors in Tesla, but that is the risk they took.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
mham001
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:23 pm

FatCat wrote:
it will not
if you don't want to see the whole World's economy falling apart, it will not
and - by the way - oil is still, together with coal, the most used resource to produce electric power


Oil is not the most used resource to make electricity. There is no factual basis for such a claim.

olle wrote:
Wind and sun energy is today much cheaper then oil, gas and special coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsm ... d812e75a6b


That claim is also a bit disingenuous because it does not include storage.

olle wrote:

In germany today wind energy stand for the biggest power production and coal is today un economical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 11176.html


The article does not say that and a one-time alternative occurrence still excludes the need for storage. This kind of PR is meant to disguise the fact that Germany still uses huge amounts of the dirtiest coal while preaching to the world about its 'green' superiority. Not unlike the diesel scam.

Really the best argument for electric propulsion is the superior driving experience.

olle wrote:
When vw and the other BIG manufactoring of cars like it do now entering the markets things change dramatically. They put them on locations where energy is cheap and low carbon like https://northvolt.com/production/ .

Tesla will have troble to compete against an organisation that can divide investments over millions cars and vehicles per year.


The problem so far has been that they cannot produce a car as advanced. Batteries are weaker and the software stinks. The products offered so far are 10 years behind technologically and I think they will have a very hard time competing with Silicon Valley in both aspects.
 
JJJ
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:42 pm

mham001 wrote:

The problem so far has been that they cannot produce a car as advanced. Batteries are weaker and the software stinks. The products offered so far are 10 years behind technologically and I think they will have a very hard time competing with Silicon Valley in both aspects.


Tesla is now finding out the hard way that maybe they were a bit too daring with their battery settings (rather than "weak", Tesla doesn't even make their own batteries, they buy them from Panasonic).

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -some-cars

So Tesla had quite a few high-profile fires and stealthily cuts battery (useable) capacity and charging speed for "security" and "longevity" reasons.

Is Tesla battery tech really better (again, their batteries are bought off the shelf from Panasonic) or they're just treading a fine line between performance and safety?
 
M564038
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:48 pm

I have driven almost every electric car on the market(except the chinese ones), and Tesla 3 is so far ahead it is not even funny. None of the others can even start to compete with what Tesla was doing in 2012.
Tesla is making the best cars on the planet, and is ahead of the rest on technology by about 10 years. No one has ever established themselves so quickly in the market.

The used value of a 2014 model S has until the 3 came out been almost as high as what they paid for it back then. Early adopters has had one of the best cars on the market for the cost of very close to zero.


The important part is that the market, in their valuing of tesla, has not put nearly enough value on EV-technology and the huge lead they have in autonomy.
GM’s self-driving technology is valued higher! They are nothing compared to tesla.

Tesla isn’t imploding, it is the next stock and car you should buy if you want to not feel utterly stupid in 10 years time!
 
M564038
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:52 pm

You have been drinking the oil-industry cool-aid.
Tesla is far ahead on battery tech, and burn at 1/8 the rate of dinosaur-cars.

Tesla batterys age very well! And so does the battery-packs from Hyundai/KIA, Opel/Chevy, BMW, Nissan, Volkswagen and the others that have meaningful statistics to show.


JJJ wrote:
mham001 wrote:

The problem so far has been that they cannot produce a car as advanced. Batteries are weaker and the software stinks. The products offered so far are 10 years behind technologically and I think they will have a very hard time competing with Silicon Valley in both aspects.


Tesla is now finding out the hard way that maybe they were a bit too daring with their battery settings (rather than "weak", Tesla doesn't even make their own batteries, they buy them from Panasonic).

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -some-cars

So Tesla had quite a few high-profile fires and stealthily cuts battery (useable) capacity and charging speed for "security" and "longevity" reasons.

Is Tesla battery tech really better (again, their batteries are bought off the shelf from Panasonic) or they're just treading a fine line between performance and safety?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:55 pm

Airliners will still use oil for sure, there might be short haul electric planes but that's it.

Cars will go mostly electric, with oil burners becoming niche.

I'm quite skeptical about hydrogen. The tech will be there, but producing it, and stocking it, is a big problem.

Petrochemicals are also being replaced by alternatives, from wood, crops, etc.

The carbon tax is the incentive needed to accelerate all of this. Remove VAT and replace it with a carbon tax. International transport will be affected, because transporting stuff half way around the world, or worse fully around the world, will be more expensive, so for many things, producing them locally will make sense again. I also expect people to buy less useless junk, and more durable goods.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
mham001
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:00 pm

JJJ wrote:
mham001 wrote:

The problem so far has been that they cannot produce a car as advanced. Batteries are weaker and the software stinks. The products offered so far are 10 years behind technologically and I think they will have a very hard time competing with Silicon Valley in both aspects.


Tesla is now finding out the hard way that maybe they were a bit too daring with their battery settings (rather than "weak", Tesla doesn't even make their own batteries, they buy them from Panasonic).

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -some-cars

So Tesla had quite a few high-profile fires and stealthily cuts battery (useable) capacity and charging speed for "security" and "longevity" reasons.

Is Tesla battery tech really better (again, their batteries are bought off the shelf from Panasonic) or they're just treading a fine line between performance and safety?


A lot of disinformation there, Panasonic manufactures the battery for Tesla using Tesla's specifications. They are not "off the shelf" products and are widely considered the highest power/density of any battery manufactured. Even that relationship is showing signs of changing, indications are that Tesla is about to introduce a much cheaper and cleaner manufacturing process.

And even with reduced limits, they still outperform the current competition.
 
olle
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:09 pm

mham001 wrote:
FatCat wrote:
it will not
if you don't want to see the whole World's economy falling apart, it will not
and - by the way - oil is still, together with coal, the most used resource to produce electric power


Oil is not the most used resource to make electricity. There is no factual basis for such a claim.

olle wrote:
Wind and sun energy is today much cheaper then oil, gas and special coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsm ... d812e75a6b


That claim is also a bit disingenuous because it does not include storage.

olle wrote:

In germany today wind energy stand for the biggest power production and coal is today un economical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 11176.html


The article does not say that and a one-time alternative occurrence still excludes the need for storage. This kind of PR is meant to disguise the fact that Germany still uses huge amounts of the dirtiest coal while preaching to the world about its 'green' superiority. Not unlike the diesel scam.

Really the best argument for electric propulsion is the superior driving experience.

olle wrote:
When vw and the other BIG manufactoring of cars like it do now entering the markets things change dramatically. They put them on locations where energy is cheap and low carbon like https://northvolt.com/production/ .

Tesla will have troble to compete against an organisation that can divide investments over millions cars and vehicles per year.


The problem so far has been that they cannot produce a car as advanced. Batteries are weaker and the software stinks. The products offered so far are 10 years behind technologically and I think they will have a very hard time competing with Silicon Valley in both aspects.



What is missing here is that today water generated electric power in nothern Europe is used as balance up and downs in wind and solar. Water can be stored easy and adjusted for demand minute by minute
 
M564038
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:12 pm

Yes, and nuclear power is safer than all of them, and
also as envrionmentally and climate friendly as water, wind and solar.

olle wrote:
mham001 wrote:
FatCat wrote:
it will not
if you don't want to see the whole World's economy falling apart, it will not
and - by the way - oil is still, together with coal, the most used resource to produce electric power


Oil is not the most used resource to make electricity. There is no factual basis for such a claim.

olle wrote:
Wind and sun energy is today much cheaper then oil, gas and special coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsm ... d812e75a6b


That claim is also a bit disingenuous because it does not include storage.

olle wrote:

In germany today wind energy stand for the biggest power production and coal is today un economical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 11176.html


The article does not say that and a one-time alternative occurrence still excludes the need for storage. This kind of PR is meant to disguise the fact that Germany still uses huge amounts of the dirtiest coal while preaching to the world about its 'green' superiority. Not unlike the diesel scam.

Really the best argument for electric propulsion is the superior driving experience.

olle wrote:
When vw and the other BIG manufactoring of cars like it do now entering the markets things change dramatically. They put them on locations where energy is cheap and low carbon like https://northvolt.com/production/ .

Tesla will have troble to compete against an organisation that can divide investments over millions cars and vehicles per year.


The problem so far has been that they cannot produce a car as advanced. Batteries are weaker and the software stinks. The products offered so far are 10 years behind technologically and I think they will have a very hard time competing with Silicon Valley in both aspects.



What is missing here is that today water generated electric power in nothern Europe is used as balance up and downs in wind and solar. Water can be stored easy and adjusted for demand minute by minute
 
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casinterest
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:36 pm

olle wrote:
mham001 wrote:
FatCat wrote:
it will not
if you don't want to see the whole World's economy falling apart, it will not
and - by the way - oil is still, together with coal, the most used resource to produce electric power


Oil is not the most used resource to make electricity. There is no factual basis for such a claim.

olle wrote:
Wind and sun energy is today much cheaper then oil, gas and special coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsm ... d812e75a6b


That claim is also a bit disingenuous because it does not include storage.

olle wrote:

In germany today wind energy stand for the biggest power production and coal is today un economical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 11176.html


The article does not say that and a one-time alternative occurrence still excludes the need for storage. This kind of PR is meant to disguise the fact that Germany still uses huge amounts of the dirtiest coal while preaching to the world about its 'green' superiority. Not unlike the diesel scam.

Really the best argument for electric propulsion is the superior driving experience.

olle wrote:
When vw and the other BIG manufactoring of cars like it do now entering the markets things change dramatically. They put them on locations where energy is cheap and low carbon like https://northvolt.com/production/ .

Tesla will have troble to compete against an organisation that can divide investments over millions cars and vehicles per year.


The problem so far has been that they cannot produce a car as advanced. Batteries are weaker and the software stinks. The products offered so far are 10 years behind technologically and I think they will have a very hard time competing with Silicon Valley in both aspects.



What is missing here is that today water generated electric power in nothern Europe is used as balance up and downs in wind and solar. Water can be stored easy and adjusted for demand minute by minute


Batteries keep getting better and better to make up for that difference.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Oil industry after transport sector go electric

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:44 pm

Bonneville Power now has problems selling its electricity, California is not buying it in the quantities it did 20 years ago. Electrical demand in the Pacific Northwest is not rising even as the population booms. In order to save orcas and certain salmon runs there is a discussion to dismantle 4 dams on the Snake River. Opponents have had to abandon the claim we need the power they produce - we don't.

Washington and Oregon are battling Montana and Wyoming over oil and coal transport. In Washington's case that volatile oil is going in hundred car trainloads through every major city on the way to the coast. Both MT and WY have much better wind capacity than the coast - WA and OR should be considering buying wind from those two states.

The remaining dams will be a powerful backup (good pun) to all the wind and solar on the west coast and mountain west (and norther plain states). What is needed, in my view are smaller cheaper industrial plants to use a lot of that surplus wind, solar, and hydro on an intermittent basis. Aluminum no longer fits in all that economically. Anyone have any ideas? We do provide power to a lot of the 'server' farms.
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