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casinterest
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Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:53 pm

It's Hurricane season, and Dorian is now projected to hit Florida. The models show likely impacts from Palm Beach to Jacksonville .
The further south the model, the more likely an entrance into the Gulf of Mexico and a 2nd hit from New Orleans to the panhandle.

Could be a repeat of Katrina, or a complete fizzle.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Inten ... at6-widget

Let's keep an eye and have discussions for this Hurricane and the remaining season ones.

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extender
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:14 pm

Too early. We have a little bit to worry about in SFL. Water, batteries and plywood are probably already sold out.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:28 pm

It looks like Eastern and Southeastern Puerto Rico with massive rainfalls, eastern smaller islands part of PR, the US and British Virgin Islands are going to be hit with more winds with large amounts of rain. The Bahamas could be hit hard if this builds up, currently could hit up to a Cat 3 the central Eastern Florida Coast, roughly between Fort Lauderdale and Jacksonville.
 
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ER757
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:54 am

We happen to have a meteorologist as a member of the site, perhaps he'll see this thread and weigh in on the potential for Dorian to strengthen and where it might end up. Lots of factors at play - water temperatures, upper level winds, ocean currents, high and low pressure systems in the area etc
 
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T18
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:52 am

Pretty big cone of uncertainty right now. Looks like anywhere from Miami to Savannah GA with a few models still calling for a wild turn north and to sea but the bulk are calling for a landfall in Florida early next week. Good time to start serious planning either way.
“Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.” ― Steve McQueen (Le Mans) 1971
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:39 am

Dorian could possibly make a direct landfall on Daytona Beach as a Category 3 hurricane.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:59 pm

Almost certain my parents barely felt anything in PR...just as I told them. Heck, looking at the field of winds, everything stayed offshore. That's significantly different from what's expected to come down in FL in a few days. A major hurricane is usually much better organized and the field of winds can surround the center of circulation.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:03 am

It's early and 2 weeks away, but the Models have been consistent the last few days of bringing another storm close , if not into , the East coast.

[img]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_54.png
[/img]
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:52 pm

TS Imelda is on shore in Texas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
Image

Hurricane Humberto is a fish storm.

Image

TS Jerry should be watched, but looks like a fish storm

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einsteinboricua
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:29 pm

I wonder if we'll have a storm towards the end of October. I'm on a transatlantic cruise and wouldn't mind if the cruise is extended for a little while or if we encounter very rough seas :stirthepot:
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:10 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
I wonder if we'll have a storm towards the end of October. I'm on a transatlantic cruise and wouldn't mind if the cruise is extended for a little while or if we encounter very rough seas :stirthepot:


So you ended up going to the cruise route? If IRC you were fishing around for ideas earlier this year. On cruise vs visiting your parents back home. Cruise is probably the safer route in regards to hurricane encounters at least. But like you said, PR has gone unscathed so far this year, thankfully.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:38 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
So you ended up going to the cruise route? If IRC you were fishing around for ideas earlier this year. On cruise vs visiting your parents back home. Cruise is probably the safer route in regards to hurricane encounters at least. But like you said, PR has gone unscathed so far this year, thankfully.

Oh no. This is a cruise I've had planned since March 2018, WAY before I opened that thread. In fact I paid it off early this year (flight tickets and all).

The end result is that I will visit my parents in January (surprise them so they don't even know about it). My vacation plan at the time was an Alaska cruise sometime around late May-early July 2019 (that didn't happen so I ended up going to Nashville which was cheaper than all of the above).

The reason I wondered about it is because tropical storms, during the latter parts of the season, become more notorious for going into or remaining in open waters. Cape Verde systems start trekking north before they reach the Caribbean and if they do, they usually stay in open waters as winds in the mid latitudes usually (but not always) keep them away from land. Not only that, but it's the time of year when Europe becomes vulnerable to these systems as well (August-early November has systems that are still active as they go towards Europe). And even if the hurricane loses strength, it can be declared as sub-tropical (meaning it has a cold core) or as low pressure system (if it weakens enough) but can still pack a punch and create rough seas.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:46 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
So you ended up going to the cruise route? If IRC you were fishing around for ideas earlier this year. On cruise vs visiting your parents back home. Cruise is probably the safer route in regards to hurricane encounters at least. But like you said, PR has gone unscathed so far this year, thankfully.

Oh no. This is a cruise I've had planned since March 2018, WAY before I opened that thread. In fact I paid it off early this year (flight tickets and all).

The end result is that I will visit my parents in January (surprise them so they don't even know about it). My vacation plan at the time was an Alaska cruise sometime around late May-early July 2019 (that didn't happen so I ended up going to Nashville which was cheaper than all of the above).

The reason I wondered about it is because tropical storms, during the latter parts of the season, become more notorious for going into or remaining in open waters. Cape Verde systems start trekking north before they reach the Caribbean and if they do, they usually stay in open waters as winds in the mid latitudes usually (but not always) keep them away from land. Not only that, but it's the time of year when Europe becomes vulnerable to these systems as well (August-early November has systems that are still active as they go towards Europe). And even if the hurricane loses strength, it can be declared as sub-tropical (meaning it has a cold core) or as low pressure system (if it weakens enough) but can still pack a punch and create rough seas.


Ah ok, well it looks like things will work out pretty well for you. Enjoy the trip!

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