ArchGuy1
Topic Author
Posts: 312
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:34 am

Does anyone know of the exact path that Hurricane Dorian is taking and will it make landfall in Daytona Beach. What exactly would happen if Dorian were to make a direct hit in Daytona Beach as a Category 3 hurricane.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 9544
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:30 am

It is impossible to say until about 36 hours from now when the Atlantic high pressure ridge steering conditions are more clear
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:42 am

Dorian is currently being investigated.
If you want to stay on top of it, use the following link.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

They have links to satellites, the current models. and flight recon missions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82906&fh=6

The HWRF currently shows a solid hit on Canaveral.


This is one of the stronger models, but the Euro is also usually heavily watched.
They will change as time goes on.

Pay attention and be prepared on the Florida Coast.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:51 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Does anyone know of the exact path that Hurricane Dorian is taking and will it make landfall in Daytona Beach. What exactly would happen if Dorian were to make a direct hit in Daytona Beach as a Category 3 hurricane.

If meteorologists could predict with such accuracy so far ahead and tell the exact implications (damages, casualties, etc), we'd have a better reputation with everyone.

Seeing as how models become uncertain about 36 hours away, it's impossible to give an answer. And even then, remember that the system is much more than a little center track: the outer bands also pack a punch.

Long story short: if it's due to make landfall around central FL, evacuate now while you have a chance or risk being caught.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
alberchico
Posts: 3184
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:52 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:58 pm

At this point it looks like the heavily populated areas of South Florida will be largely spared.
short summary of every jewish holiday: they tried to kill us ,we won , lets eat !
 
extender
Posts: 265
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:31 pm

alberchico wrote:
At this point it looks like the heavily populated areas of South Florida will be largely spared.


Not so fast. Each six hour update has the track coming further south. The forecast track is an amalgamation of most of the models. Have relatives inbound to MIA on Monday morning at 0600. See how that works out.
 
ryanrap1
Posts: 384
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 9:13 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:36 pm

Upgraded to a Category 4 storm now.
 
dfwjim1
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:46 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:10 pm

I live in Hollywood, FL and when I was driving home from work today there were long lines of cars at service stations waiting to fill up.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:36 am

Major complications to Dorian.
The King Tides are forecast for this weekend in Florida.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/us/doria ... index.html

However, this latest round of King Tides in Florida will be strengthened by a dangerous alignment of factors: One, the moon will be especially close to the earth, an event called "perigee." (Remember, the moon orbits the Earth in an elliptical pattern, so its distance isn't always the same.) Two, fall tides in Florida are generally the highest of the year because the water is at its warmest point.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
T18
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:28 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:39 am

ryanrap1 wrote:
Upgraded to a Category 4 storm now.

Don't know where you saw that. It is only just been given the status of a two. Forecast calling for a possible 4 at land fall but it has not earned that upgrade yet.

It does seem the 11pm update has pulled the NHC forecast back south toward Jupiter and Port Saint Lucie, but some of the models are suggesting a possible north turn before reaching the coast, so we could hope still. But even with hope its best anyone from FHB to EYW be ready still.
“Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.” ― Steve McQueen (Le Mans) 1971
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 9544
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:36 am

The latest hunter data is not promising - dry air entrainment is reducing and shear will decrease tomorrow. Hopefully it will keep moving at 11-15 knots and not slow too much upon arrival at the coast.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 1970
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:04 am

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Does anyone know of the exact path that Hurricane Dorian is taking and will it make landfall in Daytona Beach. What exactly would happen if Dorian were to make a direct hit in Daytona Beach as a Category 3 hurricane.


This guy has some interesting coverage of Hurricane Dorian:

https://youtu.be/71ep5Oyvj5M
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
extender
Posts: 265
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:54 am

Image

Slowing down. Low in the Gulf isn't helping us in SFL.
 
User avatar
readytotaxi
Posts: 6592
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:27 pm

The Orlando theme parks could take quite a hit, a proper water ride !
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:50 pm

Looking kind of serious now.'
Still moving Northwest.

Movement: NW at 9 mph
Wind: 110 mph (High Cat 2)
Pressure: 972 mb

Image
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Models are slowing it down and bringing it further south for a hit on Florida monday into Tuesday.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ?map=model

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:07 pm

As much as I would love to ride out a hurricane, I'm glad I didn't move to FL when offered. Higher insurance rates to cover for hurricane damage? No thanks!
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:26 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
As much as I would love to ride out a hurricane, I'm glad I didn't move to FL when offered. Higher insurance rates to cover for hurricane damage? No thanks!


Well, if it moves slowly, the big damage could be localized, but there could be some serious flooding. We will have to watch it on Monday.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 1970
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:25 am

Levi Cowan does incredible videos about Hurricanes on his Tropical Tidbits YouTube Channel. Please Check him out:

https://youtu.be/ZsBHlzkwHz0
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
extender
Posts: 265
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:18 am

The 0500 from NHC has the track shifting east, with only one model hitting Florida.

Image
 
TSS
Posts: 3237
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 3:52 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:29 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
As much as I would love to ride out a hurricane, I'm glad I didn't move to FL when offered.


There is a very good reason why people who have successfully (as in didn't die in some gruesome way like being impaled by a 2x4 or sign post or get washed/blown away never to be heard from again) ridden out a hurricane have no desire to ever repeat the experience. Would you really want to trust your life to a structure that was built on literal shifting sands in a matter of weeks? Sure, more modern condos use a reinforced structure but most of them also feature a "blow-through" design that allows the individual condos to blow/wash away while leaving the main structure intact, so you get no extra protection there. And even if you do successfully ride the storm out, then you're stuck at the scene of a major natural disaster with no power, likely no water that can be safely consumed, and no way to get out until the roads can be cleared of debris... which may take days if not weeks.

einsteinboricua wrote:
Higher insurance rates to cover for hurricane damage? No thanks!


Ehhh... That's the price you have to pay for living in the land of Mullets, Meth, and Mouse. People in California have to pay higher rates for earthquake coverage.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14248
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:05 pm

I appears from the latest reports that Hurricain Dorian is almost stalling for over a day in forward movement as it turns from the West to the North over the northern Bahamas Islands (including Abacos & Grand Bahama) as a high Cat 4 - low Cat 5. It may lose some strength as it approaches and then hugs out at sea along the central and northern coast of Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina. Very high tides as in a near full moon will likely cause serious damage from storm surge along all coastal areas. The outer islands of FL, GA, SC and NC could be flooded over.
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurric ... index.html

One can presume there will be 'Biblical' levels of disaster and potentially large numbers of deaths in the northern Bahamas islands, much like by Hurricane Maria 2 years ago did to some of the 'Windward' Caribbean islands, in particular Dominica, US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. There is going to be a severe need to evacuate the survivors to other Caribbean Islands or to the USA (if Pres. Trump will allow it - he may not), likely this years and future years tourism industry in the Bahamas will be badly damaged. As the Bahamas are part of the UK, they will likely have to deal with it, this at a time of Brexit complicating their abilities to do so. No matter what, this is going to be a historically bad hurricane.
Last edited by ltbewr on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
NoTime
Posts: 595
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 2:21 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 pm

The latest round of computer models:

Image
 
User avatar
DL717
Posts: 1674
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 10:53 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:17 pm

Bahamas and then a car wash along the Florida and Georgia coast. Carolinas, not so good.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
FCAFLYBOY
Posts: 642
Joined: Sun Nov 05, 2006 5:03 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:11 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I appears from the latest reports that Hurricain Dorian is almost stalling for over a day in forward movement as it turns from the West to the North over the northern Bahamas Islands (including Abacos & Grand Bahama) as a high Cat 4 - low Cat 5. It may lose some strength as it approaches and then hugs out at sea along the central and northern coast of Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina. Very high tides as in a near full moon will likely cause serious damage from storm surge along all coastal areas. The outer islands of FL, GA, SC and NC could be flooded over.
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurric ... index.html

One can presume there will be 'Biblical' levels of disaster and potentially large numbers of deaths in the northern Bahamas islands, much like by Hurricane Maria 2 years ago did to some of the 'Windward' Caribbean islands, in particular Dominica, US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. There is going to be a severe need to evacuate the survivors to other Caribbean Islands or to the USA (if Pres. Trump will allow it - he may not), likely this years and future years tourism industry in the Bahamas will be badly damaged. As the Bahamas are part of the UK, they will likely have to deal with it, this at a time of Brexit complicating their abilities to do so. No matter what, this is going to be a historically bad hurricane.


The Bahamas are not a UK Territory any longer, they are part of the Commonwealth, but are independent from the UK since 1973. I'm sure the UK, and many other nations, will send relief teams, but it's not technically a UK responsibility/liability.

God bless them, it will indeed be devastating.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:19 pm

TSS wrote:
There is a very good reason why people who have successfully (as in didn't die in some gruesome way like being impaled by a 2x4 or sign post or get washed/blown away never to be heard from again) ridden out a hurricane have no desire to ever repeat the experience.

I've ridden out many hurricanes before. But construction materials in PR are WAY different than in the states. My parents' home is made out of concrete and cinder blocks. It was able to withstand Hurricane Maria's winds (cracks emerged, though they're billing it as a construction defect due to the fact that all houses in the complex suffered the same cracks in the same areas). The worst thing that happened to them was being without power and water for weeks. Some poorer people, whose houses are made out of wood and have metal rooftops, or have houses by rivers, beaches, or on steep slops, lost their properties, but it's the price they paid for houses that were not built up to codes.

I can't imagine moving to FL with plywood houses that get shaken up by the lightest of sneezes. Even if I were renting an apartment, I would not want to be living in a place that I'd have to abandon and return to find that it's nothing but rubble. Hurricanes don't strike FL too often, but the fact that FL is among the US's most hurricane prone areas is enough for me to think twice before moving there. I'm amazed that retirees move there without a problem, when it should be a time to enjoy their years without worries.

As with OK, the only way you can get me to move there is if I get to do weather research and storm chasing. I'll be a Jim Cantore with hurricanes and ride it out. Other than that, people can have their hot, muggy weather and I'll settle for the milder climate of the PNW.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
bennett123
Posts: 8915
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:51 pm

Perhaps some people are not able to afford a house built to code?.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8376
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:32 pm

Currently pounding eastern Bahamas with 185 mph winds

Cat 5 is 156 or higher...so IF there were a Cat 6, this would be a Cat 6....WOW !! :eek:


Name to be retired for sure.....joining the ranks of Andrew, Camille, Hugo, etc...
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:55 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Currently pounding eastern Bahamas with 185 mph winds

Cat 5 is 156 or higher...so IF there were a Cat 6, this would be a Cat 6....WOW !! :eek:


Name to be retired for sure.....joining the ranks of Andrew, Camille, Hugo, etc...

1. At 185mph, it is tied for the second most powerful storm in the Atlantic (in terms of wind speed), with Hurricane Allen (1980) being the strongest at 190mph. In terms of pressure, Wilma (2005) still holds that distinction at 882hPa. If Dorian had entered the Gulf, I'd say it would have had a very good chance at intensifying beyond anything we've ever seen.

2. Due to the increased frequency of cat 5 storms, especially ones that have winds in excess of 170mph, there has been chatter about reforming the Saffir-Simpson scale to include a category 6. However, just like the Fujita scale, there's no way to describe anything beyond 5 (the Fujita scale rates an EF5 as "incredible damage"; the SS scale says it's "extremely catastrophic damage"...which adjective can top that?)

3. Too early to see if Dorian will be retired. Usually, hurricanes have to cause significant damages and/or casualties (direct ones because of flooding, structure collapse, surge, and their aftermath; not indirect ones because of chaos in stores or making preparations for the storm). If damage is significant, The Bahamas can petition the WMO to have the name retired. Let's see what happens as it gets closer to FL. The Spaghetti Models show Dorian remaining offshore so storm surge, rain, and cat 2 winds (at most) are gonna be the likely effects along the coast.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
TSS
Posts: 3237
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 3:52 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:44 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
TSS wrote:
There is a very good reason why people who have successfully (as in didn't die in some gruesome way like being impaled by a 2x4 or sign post or get washed/blown away never to be heard from again) ridden out a hurricane have no desire to ever repeat the experience.

I've ridden out many hurricanes before. But construction materials in PR are WAY different than in the states. My parents' home is made out of concrete and cinder blocks. It was able to withstand Hurricane Maria's winds (cracks emerged, though they're billing it as a construction defect due to the fact that all houses in the complex suffered the same cracks in the same areas). The worst thing that happened to them was being without power and water for weeks. Some poorer people, whose houses are made out of wood and have metal rooftops, or have houses by rivers, beaches, or on steep slops, lost their properties, but it's the price they paid for houses that were not built up to codes.


Fair enough, I stand corrected.

einsteinboricua wrote:
I can't imagine moving to FL with plywood houses that get shaken up by the lightest of sneezes.


Modern "Glued & Screwed" construction methods along with the installation of metal rafter ties help tremendously with resisting wind action because if you can keep the roof on, most houses will weather the wind ok, and building houses on pilings so the first/ground floor remains open helps tremendously in resisting flooding and wave action because the house is then up above most of it. Still, there are loads of older homes in Florida that were built of unreinforced cinderblock on a cement slab only an inch or two above grade and after a hurricane all that's left of them is the slab and maybe a stray brightly colored cinderblock here or there.

einsteinboricua wrote:
As with OK, the only way you can get me to move there is if I get to do weather research and storm chasing.


Having grown up in an area prone to tornados and having lived in an area where hurricanes were a valid concern if not often a tangible threat, I'll take tornados over hurricanes any day. With a tornado it comes, does it's damage, then goes, all in an hour, tops, and if you walk outside before then you'll know immediately that a tornado is likely by the close, thick, sticky feeling of the air, but with a hurricane the week or so of NOAA dithering on "Will it go here or will it go there?" along with increasingly strident cries of "BOARD UP EVERYTHING AND RUN, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!" only to have it not even rain on the day because the hurricane took an entirely different path than predicted at the last minute was more than my nerves could stand. When the good people of New Orleans got caught with their pants down by Hurricane Katrina, I understood perfectly why they didn't leave at the first warning: They'd heard it all before, time and time again, and nothing had happened; Too many cries of "Wolf!" had left them jaded and unappreciative of a genuine threat.

einsteinboricua wrote:
I'll be a Jim Cantore with hurricanes and ride it out. Other than that, people can have their hot, muggy weather and I'll settle for the milder climate of the PNW.


O-kay.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
User avatar
Super80Fan
Posts: 1602
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:14 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:23 am

I don't feel bad for Florida at all. Modern infrastructure and days in advance to prepare/evacuate. I do however feel bad for the Bahamas. Almost no warning, limited infrastructure, not many places to evacuate to, and some of the videos/photos I've seen of certain islands show total devastation.

They are the ones who will need all the donations/help.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 9544
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:36 am

Super80Fan wrote:
I don't feel bad for Florida at all. Modern infrastructure and days in advance to prepare/evacuate. I do however feel bad for the Bahamas. Almost no warning, limited infrastructure, not many places to evacuate to, and some of the videos/photos I've seen of certain islands show total devastation.

They are the ones who will need all the donations/help.


They have another 30 hours to go at least...not going to be much left in the Abacos or Freeport I’m afraid.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 9826
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:26 pm

Hurricanes are horrific, but also beautiful at the same time:

Footage from the cockpit of a WC-130J inside Dorian.

Twitter link
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:04 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Hurricanes are horrific, but also beautiful at the same time:

I think what makes hurricanes even more awesome (from a meteorological standpoint) is that they're ways the planet gets rid of excess energy in the tropics and transfer it elsewhere.

Have you ever noticed that after a region has about 2-3 storm go through the area, it becomes a less favorable area for storm development? Or that if a storm remains stationary over an area it weakens over time? Excess energy (in the form of warm water and saturated air) is removed so the area is depleted of fuel for storms. There's a reason the Gulf of Mexico is a hot bed for storms: with only a narrow pathway for water to be pushed out into the ocean and warm air churning, any low pressure system that enters will likely begin feeding off of it, assuming upper level winds allow it.

The same mechanism exists with supercells (dissipating when there is no more warm, humid air to lift), high pressures (ridges in particular, where excess warm air creates an upward bulge on the jetstream and pushes it further north) and even with (so-called) polar vortexes (same as a high pressure except excess cold air from the north creates a downward bulge, pushing the jetstream further south).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:56 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Hurricanes are horrific, but also beautiful at the same time:

I think what makes hurricanes even more awesome (from a meteorological standpoint) is that they're ways the planet gets rid of excess energy in the tropics and transfer it elsewhere.

Have you ever noticed that after a region has about 2-3 storm go through the area, it becomes a less favorable area for storm development? Or that if a storm remains stationary over an area it weakens over time? Excess energy (in the form of warm water and saturated air) is removed so the area is depleted of fuel for storms. There's a reason the Gulf of Mexico is a hot bed for storms: with only a narrow pathway for water to be pushed out into the ocean and warm air churning, any low pressure system that enters will likely begin feeding off of it, assuming upper level winds allow it.

The same mechanism exists with supercells (dissipating when there is no more warm, humid air to lift), high pressures (ridges in particular, where excess warm air creates an upward bulge on the jetstream and pushes it further north) and even with (so-called) polar vortexes (same as a high pressure except excess cold air from the north creates a downward bulge, pushing the jetstream further south).


The planet does not get rid of excess heat. The Hurricanes are a heat Transport system. They mix the air at rapid pace bringing stability. Hurricane Sandy was a prime example. It brought record heat on the east side, and 3 feet of snow on the west side.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:30 am

Looks like Dorian is starting to move again northward along the coast. Lots of models are starting to point to a close brush with SC/NC
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 1970
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:13 am

Forecasters monitoring 4 tropical disturbances in Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico

https://wsvn.com/news/us-world/forecast ... of-mexico/
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:53 pm

Dorian is going after Boeing in Charleston it would seem.

Image
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9356
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:07 pm

Flooding will be the issue but so far for the USA this has not been as bad as it could have been (still plenty of time left). Fortunately the king tide is not a factor now and there hasn't been overwhelming rainfall in the interior (whelming but not overwhelming) so the rivers in the area aren't already flooding which is when things get horrible. And the "dirty side" is currently out at sea (the east side of the system). But low pressure and rainfall will impact the tidal/coastal regions as it cruises up the coast. Hopefully it picks up speed and stays off shore.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:10 pm

Hurricane force winds are packed in a very small area around the eye. My guess is that FL, GA, and SC will experience TS winds. NC, however, could experience hurricane winds depending on how close the center of circulation passes.

BTW, eager to see how people defend Trump's blunder by saying that Alabama could be hit harder than expected...
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:33 pm

They are saying hurricane force winds extend over 50NM from the center. That will be 100 miles of coastline under Hurricane force if it hits.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:50 pm

You can't make this stuff up even if you tried

Image

In an effort to save face after this Alabama tweet, and raging against the outlets for repeating what he said, this is him attempting to justify that Alabama was in the path of the storm (screw Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas...the real threat is to Alabama), despite the fact that no model EVER put Alabama in the path of the storm and that forecasts so far out as when this map was created are unreliable.

Sure a stable genius and a guy with a knack for science, the guy who knows more about hurricanes than anyone, would know this.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 17518
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:23 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
You can't make this stuff up even if you tried

Image

In an effort to save face after this Alabama tweet, and raging against the outlets for repeating what he said, this is him attempting to justify that Alabama was in the path of the storm (screw Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas...the real threat is to Alabama), despite the fact that no model EVER put Alabama in the path of the storm and that forecasts so far out as when this map was created are unreliable.

Sure a stable genius and a guy with a knack for science, the guy who knows more about hurricanes than anyone, would know this.

Alabama don't listen to the FAKE NEWS! Evacuate to where you see the hurricane symbol on the map...that's where the lamestream media is hiding the good weather!
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
User avatar
T18
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:28 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:04 am

It's a real shame for Donald that the NHC doesn't have an entire video on how to read the cone.... oh wait they do. Coulda saved himself more trouble, I swear if he stopped tweeting he wouldn't have half as many issues with the press to tweet about.
“Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.” ― Steve McQueen (Le Mans) 1971
 
dragon-wings
Posts: 4119
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2001 4:55 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:52 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
You can't make this stuff up even if you tried

Image

In an effort to save face after this Alabama tweet, and raging against the outlets for repeating what he said, this is him attempting to justify that Alabama was in the path of the storm (screw Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas...the real threat is to Alabama), despite the fact that no model EVER put Alabama in the path of the storm and that forecasts so far out as when this map was created are unreliable.

Sure a stable genius and a guy with a knack for science, the guy who knows more about hurricanes than anyone, would know this.


Did he do something illegal with that map he showed?

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2074
Don't give up don't ever give up - Jim Valvano
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 20486
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:22 am

dragon-wings wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
You can't make this stuff up even if you tried

Image

In an effort to save face after this Alabama tweet, and raging against the outlets for repeating what he said, this is him attempting to justify that Alabama was in the path of the storm (screw Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas...the real threat is to Alabama), despite the fact that no model EVER put Alabama in the path of the storm and that forecasts so far out as when this map was created are unreliable.

Sure a stable genius and a guy with a knack for science, the guy who knows more about hurricanes than anyone, would know this.


Did he do something illegal with that map he showed?

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2074


Thousands and thousands of people in southern Alabama and the panhandle of Florida hang on his every word. It is not a matter of legal or illegal. It is a matter of him giving false information. Him thinking he is always and forever the smartest guy in the room. And those who absolutely and without question believe him.

I wonder how many people in southern Alabama were boarding up their homes and stocking up because of this?
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9356
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:43 am

dragon-wings wrote:
Did he do something illegal with that map he showed?

No. Of course not, come on now. You think he did something illegal or that anyone is saying that he did? Really?

No, he did something stupid, not bad. Just dumb. Ignorant would also apply.

Just another example of him being a poor president, providing poor information and not paying attention or listening to those around him.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 9544
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:04 am

Tugger wrote:
dragon-wings wrote:
Did he do something illegal with that map he showed?

No. Of course not, come on now. You think he did something illegal or that anyone is saying that he did? Really?

No, he did something stupid, not bad. Just dumb. Ignorant would also apply.

Just another example of him being a poor president, providing poor information and not paying attention or listening to those around him.

Tugg


Say what you want about the legality - if you watch the presser the lying shitbag claimed there was ‘95% probability’ given of the path through FL and into AL ‘at the time’. Patently false since the NHC/NOAA/NWS would never issue that kind of probability figure in a forecast several days out, if ever.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7506
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:29 pm

A few things to note:

1. As much as I'd like to jump on the bandwagon that he broke the law with that doctored image, the fact is that the image was outdated. It would be a serious offense, however, if he had the cone redrawn to point elsewhere, falsified wind data, or had watches/warnings issued for areas that don't need it. Anyone with eyes and ears knows the storm's forecast is to graze against the Carolinas as it heads NE. And the image he's showing was from August 29, a full 3 days before he sent the tweet...and he showed the SAME image back on August 29, without the Sharpie cone.
Image

2. You may say "but einsteinboricua, models back then MAY have shown AL being in the center of it all", to which I say, nope. Not even close. Trump also shared a doctored image of models (right):
Image

Except that:
a) The right image is doctored (no spaghetti model will EVER have lines going off the charts like the one going through the left side of the map, and all lines should have a marker in the legend)
b) The left image is the original model (at the same time)
c) This model was from August 28, again, 4 days before the AL tweet.

3. "But einsteinboricua, he was talking about the wind probability since it would be a large storm", to which I say, nope. This was the wind probability on Sept 1:
Image

Only a small part of SE AL is in there, and that's just for tropical storm force winds. Not even close to the cat 5 winds bearing down on the Bahamas and threatening FL, GA, and SC, so to say that AL would be hit as hard as FL, GA, NC, and SC is flat out wrong.

4. "But einsteinboricua, it's the size of the storm that matters"...and again, I say nope. On Sept 1, this was the wind field:
Image

Let's assume that the center goes through the westernmost part of the cone (i.e. central FL).
a) The storm will weaken which means,
b) The wind field is small enough that SE AL will NOT be impacted by TS winds. Maybe some rain and strong breeze, but nothing as damaging as FL and GA would get.

You know what really irks me from all of this?
1. The mockery of the profession. As someone who understands the uncertain science that is meteorology, I take serious offense when a nobody attempts make us look bad. The folks at the NHC are now hounded and forced to enter into the political fray when their agency is among the few that is not political. The many calls having to be answered to make a statement attempting to correct the record when images speak for themselves.
2. The fact that he thinks we're so stupid that we'll believe it. Unfortunately, some are attempting to defend it (people on Twitter in particular), but anyone with a brain knows that the longer the forecast, the more unreliable it is. It may have shown the system entering the Gulf, but on Aug 28 (when the system was thousands of miles away from the Gulf) it was too early to make the determination that AL would be affected. With that logic, I could have said that CA needed to brace because this system could have crossed into the Pacific and then head NE towards it.
3. You're calling into question NOAA's work. You're telling your supporters that NOAA is working against you and is part of the "Deep State", and that any subsequent forecasts and models should not be trusted.
4. If he's faking data to suit his needs, what's to say he's not doing it with other things (like intelligence or economic indicators)?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9356
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:20 pm

One of my favorite sites during such events:
https://explore.org/livecams/frying-pan/frying-pan-cam

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian Path

Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:49 pm

Tugger wrote:
One of my favorite sites during such events:
https://explore.org/livecams/frying-pan/frying-pan-cam

Tugg


Was just watching it. Waiting for the rain to start here. Should be a non event this far inland ( RDU), but could get some power outages if it comes ashore early and "unfurls" it's energy a bit.
Where ever you go, there you are.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DiamondFlyer, dmg626, Francoflier, TheF15Ace and 26 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos