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Aaron747
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Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:39 am

A great overview of some burgeoning issues in this discussion piece from Al Jazeera:

https://youtu.be/RJP9kSGJMIA

Indonesia is moving its capital from sinking Jakarta to less disaster-prone Borneo, Shanghai is sinking to the point it wouldn’t survive even modest future sea level rises, and US cities like Houston and Miami are already under threat due to overdevelopment and past mismanagement of extractions and water control. Lagos in Nigeria may be the next megametropolis to have to relocate as well.

How different can we expect the world map to look in 20-25 years? It’s quite incredible to consider that much of the (over)developing world will have to relocate entire cities in coming years as the ancients often did.
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Spar
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:59 am

New Orleans never should have been rebuilt.
 
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seb146
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:31 am

I wonder how many cities are sinking? Ocean rise because of climate change is going to be a problem for NYC and Miami and Rio and Sydney. Parts of downtown Seattle was built on fill. After the 2001 earthquake, BFI 13/31 turned to liquid, they said. I wonder how many other world cities are built on fill.
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tommy1808
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:40 am

Aaron747 wrote:
How different can we expect the world map to look in 20-25 years?


at the rate things are going that will be an about 5 to 20 inches higher sea level, the former if speed of raise stays the same, the latter if there is a feedback loop going between now and then. As far as worst case is considered we may be looking at some 50% more than that..

That in itself isn´t the big problem. That at the same time 100-years floodings, by today standards, happen about every 1 to 5 years by then, is much more so.

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Dutchy
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:16 am

Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.
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Armadillo1
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:59 pm

ask dutch about this "problem".

not only any seashore can be protected, but more land can be taken from seas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rec ... ment_Canal
 
SanDiegoLover
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:44 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
ask dutch about this "problem".

not only any seashore can be protected, but more land can be taken from seas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rec ... ment_Canal


The Dutch have invested a significant part of their GDP every year for centuries to get to this point. Many countries haven’t started. Imagine what 2% or 3% of GDP be annum for the next 50 years looks like for the USA, Australia, Indonesia, India, China, etc... looks like.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:12 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
ask dutch about this "problem".

not only any seashore can be protected, but more land can be taken from seas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rec ... ment_Canal


Actually a friend of mine did ask the "Dutch" about this, or to be more precise for an article he went to Dutch scientist to aks what we could do to protect the Dutch delta from rising seas. The conclusion was, go and buy land in Germany. You can only do so much against sea rising and the rising flow of rivers when the rain intensifies. So The Netherlands is indeed in danger of being flooded if the sea levels rise to the levels with 6 degrees (2100-2150 period) overall rising of temperatures (the current path we are on). And that is indeed from scientists who do the studies, so they do know what they are talking about.

So imagine what it will mean for coastal cities in less developt countries or in countries who don't want to invest too much in such an infrastructure. To put it in perspective, our coastal and river defenses are designed to deal with storms and floods which happens once every 10.000 years. This is done because the consequences are too massive to deal with if it goes wrong. In order to conform to such a norm, the investments are indeed massive so not everyone can afford to do this or wants to invest so much of their GDP into such coastal defenses.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:25 pm

SanDiegoLover wrote:
Armadillo1 wrote:
ask dutch about this "problem".

not only any seashore can be protected, but more land can be taken from seas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rec ... ment_Canal


The Dutch have invested a significant part of their GDP every year for centuries to get to this point. Many countries haven’t started. Imagine what 2% or 3% of GDP be annum for the next 50 years looks like for the USA, Australia, Indonesia, India, China, etc... looks like.


Adding on - in cities like Jakarta or Lagos or Dhaka, the urban growth are totally uncontrolled with zero planning. To fix the problem the gov't would need to throw TONS of money into public works, assuming those money actually goes to building stuff instead of somebody else's pocket, follow by large scale urban planning that often involved kicking out a bunch of poor people living in slums. The poor people still has to live somewhere, though, and guess what? They'll just build more unplanned urban settlements that would required even more money to clear.

Dutchy wrote:
The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.


I believe cities are sinking mostly due to the soil underneath and also overusage of groundwater. Coastal cities like Jakarta are more prone to this, but I was just googling "sinking city" and Beijing was listed on a few list as "sinking city", even though Beijing is not exactly near the coast.
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:03 pm

There are two angles to look at here:
1. Sinking because soil is being deteriorated (for whatever reason) and slowly buckling under its weight
2. Sinking because of a rise in sea level.

There are a few cities that are in danger because they have both situations. Jakarta is one of them. Hopefully when they move over to Borneo they actually plan the city with modern standards.
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ChrisKen
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:06 pm

You've also got to factor in that land masses are still settling out post ice age. Scandinavia, Northern Canada etc are still springing back ie rising.
While other parts are sinking like the sore end of a see saw the rotund kid jumped off.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:18 pm

The Chinese are sure committing to this hoax! :roll: :duck:
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afcjets
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:02 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.

Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.
 
LittleSprocket
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:24 pm

afcjets wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.

Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.


One thing that I never understood about these climate alarmist... the insurance industry studies anything that could possibly cause them to lose money in the long run. If the seas are supposedly going to rise the rate that “scientists” are predicting, why on earth would insurance companies insure new sky rises being built right next to the ocean in Florida? They would never insure a multi-billion dollar building knowing they would have to pay out in 10-12 years.

Here are some other gloom and doom predictions made in 1970 by “scientists”:

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

Oh, and my favorite one of all...

18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spect ... is-year-3/
 
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:37 pm

The Mid Atlantic seaboard is also at risk, as is land surrounding the Chesapeake Bay. Lower estimates are another 2 feet of sea rise by the end of the century. More realistic estimates are 5 feet, could be more. When these two plus New Orleans/Houston/Florida are considered the infrastructure hit that the US could experience is almost catastrophic. Think a couple dozen Katrinas in 25 years.
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:39 pm

afcjets wrote:
Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.

Is it YOUR property? The family has enough cash that they can protect against it if needed. Joe Average, however, likely has no way to protect against this and can't rely on insurance companies unless they fork over cash. They know the risks; they accept them.

You can probably make some money if you stop Democrats from living in your head rent-free.
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afcjets
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:08 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Is it YOUR property? The family has enough cash that they can protect against it if needed. Joe Average, however, likely has no way to protect against this and can't rely on insurance companies unless they fork over cash.



How can the Obama's protect against a tiny island being underwater because of rising sea levels?


einsteinboricua wrote:
They know the risks; they accept them.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Exactly the point.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:30 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
afcjets wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.

Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.

http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spect ... is-year-3/

A fossil fuel funded "think" tank is skeptical of climate change? Shocking :roll: Next you're going to tell me Altria's think tank is pro tobacco...
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Dutchy
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:46 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
afcjets wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.

Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.


One thing that I never understood about these climate alarmist... the insurance industry studies anything that could possibly cause them to lose money in the long run. If the seas are supposedly going to rise the rate that “scientists” are predicting, why on earth would insurance companies insure new sky rises being built right next to the ocean in Florida? They would never insure a multi-billion dollar building knowing they would have to pay out in 10-12 years.

Here are some other gloom and doom predictions made in 1970 by “scientists”:

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

Oh, and my favorite one of all...

18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spect ... is-year-3/


Seriously, what is your point, we should never believe scientists? All scientists are wrong? It is the tactic of the smoking lobby which are also behind the misinformation campaign for climate change. They use the same tactic. But to put it bluntly, scientists are best positioned to make a prediction about the future. Are they always right, no of course not, that's why it is a model and the climat models are very dependent on many inputs and interactions.
Does that mean we should not listen to them, well if you are smart, you do listen to them, because they are the best source of information we've got.

But indeed the American Enterprise Institute seems to get money from fossil fuel companies, so definitely not an independent source. Seems strange to me that you put " " around . scientists but believe an institute funded partly by oil money. You haven't got your priorities straight.
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Dutchy
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:54 pm

afcjets wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.

Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.


What is your point? Obama bought s seaside property so all is well? That's not seriously how you reason, now is it? Would be quite daft and non-critical. Some island states who will be gone because of the changing climate also bought land on the seaside. Because they need to live somewhere when their island will be beneath thee waves.

One Small Pacific Island Nation Just Bought Part Of Another Island To Escape Climate Change


https://thinkprogress.org/one-small-pac ... c49db641c/
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MaverickM11
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:26 pm

Dutchy wrote:
LittleSprocket wrote:
afcjets wrote:
Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.


One thing that I never understood about these climate alarmist... the insurance industry studies anything that could possibly cause them to lose money in the long run. If the seas are supposedly going to rise the rate that “scientists” are predicting, why on earth would insurance companies insure new sky rises being built right next to the ocean in Florida? They would never insure a multi-billion dollar building knowing they would have to pay out in 10-12 years.

Here are some other gloom and doom predictions made in 1970 by “scientists”:

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

Oh, and my favorite one of all...

18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spect ... is-year-3/


Seriously, what is your point, we should never believe scientists? All scientists are wrong? It is the tactic of the smoking lobby which are also behind the misinformation campaign for climate change. They use the same tactic. But to put it bluntly, scientists are best positioned to make a prediction about the future. Are they always right, no of course not, that's why it is a model and the climat models are very dependent on many inputs and interactions.
Does that mean we should not listen to them, well if you are smart, you do listen to them, because they are the best source of information we've got.

But indeed the American Enterprise Institute seems to get money from fossil fuel companies, so definitely not an independent source. Seems strange to me that you put " " around . scientists but believe an institute funded partly by oil money. You haven't got your priorities straight.

Jesus if this how we reasoned, the republicans and evangelicals would have disappeared long ago after their first mistress' abortion
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Tugger
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:25 pm

A discussion of sea level rise and its impacts and we get "...but obama!..." Really? Seriously? Just silly to the point of dumb.

But at the same time, alarmism isn't needed either.
Dutchy wrote:
The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.


Being close to the shore isn't the biggest issue (and I would argue that 100km is not close to the shore). Elevation above king-tide sea level is the the issue. Less than 10% of the world population lives in coastal less that 30' above sea level.


There are hugely impacted regions where the population is just feet above sea level even a dozen miles from shore but areas where the elevation rise is better with the population and a higher (20'+?) elevation it is less of an issue. Bangladesh and south Florida are pretty hosed (as are the aforementioned parts of New Orleans), but others areas are not. Except of course the most expensive and some of the most economically productive areas are generally nearer or on the coast.

So its bad and needs to be addressed. But it will happen over a time period that does allow for people to adapt and move (it's not a tsunami happeing in seconds). Expensive, yes, but humans can adapt and do OK even if the impacts are huge and very destructive to those nations most at risk.

Tugg
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TSS
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:52 am

Dieuwer wrote:


Very clever concepts, but I can't help but picture them all piled on top of each other several hundred feet inland post-hurricane.
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tommy1808
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:47 am

LittleSprocket wrote:
One thing that I never understood about these climate alarmist... the insurance industry studies anything that could possibly cause them to lose money in the long run. If the seas are supposedly going to rise the rate that “scientists” are predicting, why on earth would insurance companies insure new sky rises being built right next to the ocean in Florida? They would never insure a multi-billion dollar building knowing they would have to pay out in 10-12 years. /


Because flood insurance risk in the US is paid for by the US tax payer, Insurance companies are only the middle man, making a nice profit from passing tax payer money to their insured.

Its a guaranteed no risk involved money printing press for the insurance company called the National Flood Insurance Program.

Where flood insurance is really free market, with insurers and re-insurers really carrying the risk, getting "Elements" insurance is expensive or impossible to obtain.

best regards
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Dutchy
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:10 am

Tugger wrote:
A discussion of sea level rise and its impacts and we get "...but obama!..." Really? Seriously? Just silly to the point of dumb.

But at the same time, alarmism isn't needed either.
Dutchy wrote:
The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.


Being close to the shore isn't the biggest issue (and I would argue that 100km is not close to the shore). Elevation above king-tide sea level is the the issue. Less than 10% of the world population lives in coastal less that 30' above sea level.


There are hugely impacted regions where the population is just feet above sea level even a dozen miles from shore but areas where the elevation rise is better with the population and a higher (20'+?) elevation it is less of an issue. Bangladesh and south Florida are pretty hosed (as are the aforementioned parts of New Orleans), but others areas are not. Except of course the most expensive and some of the most economically productive areas are generally nearer or on the coast.

So its bad and needs to be addressed. But it will happen over a time period that does allow for people to adapt and move (it's not a tsunami happening in seconds). Expensive, yes, but humans can adapt and do OK even if the impacts are huge and very destructive to those nations most at risk.

Tugg


Sure people can adapt to anything, nobody is claiming it will happen overnight. But the impact will be huge. The following maps are the predictions if we make only the 2,0degrees rise of overall temperature.

Image

Image

link

Just to highlight a random country from the list mentioned:
COUNTRY 10. Netherlands
POPULATION AFFECTED: 10,000,000
% OF NATIONAL POPULATION 62%


A 7-meter rise and the Netherlands will look like this:

Image

Want to do it for yourself:

Interactieve map

It is not just the rising of sea levels, but large parts of the world would become uninhabitable because the climate will be so severe that normal living is not possible.

Image

So you might say that alarmism isn't necessary, I think it is. Your attitude might have worked in 1972 - first rapport of the Club of Rome - but now? The impact is huge and we need to address it now, not tomorrow, not in a week, now. So I would call myself a realist. 2100 might sound very far away, but children born today, will be around to see this. If you know this and accept the science, how can you not be alarmed and act now?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:56 am

afcjets wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.

Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.


I would consider that buy too if I had the money. It's not a beach house, and it doesn't seem to be near sea level.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:
It is not just the rising of sea levels, but large parts of the world would become uninhabitable because the climate will be so severe that normal living is not possible.


So essentially, everyone will have to move to Siberia or Northern Canada. Well, that and UK are not affected :scratchchin: :scratchchin:

Also, the west coast of Greenland would now be full of megacities like Nuuk. No wonder Trump want to buy Greenland so badly :white:
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:52 pm

Insurance is already becoming high enough in Florida that some houses near sea level are facing huge insurance costs, and are essentially not acceptable to mortgage lenders.

Buffet was asked how he could take all that risk with flood insurance - simple he responded, we re-price those rates every year, as risk goes up the price goes up.
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Dieuwer
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:22 pm

I predict very little to nothing will happen. And even if a group of people or a nation decides to do something, the end result will be that billionaires got even richer, ordinary people poorer and the Climate keeps doing what it is doing.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:33 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
It is not just the rising of sea levels, but large parts of the world would become uninhabitable because the climate will be so severe that normal living is not possible.


So essentially, everyone will have to move to Siberia or Northern Canada. Well, that and UK are not affected :scratchchin: :scratchchin:

Also, the west coast of Greenland would now be full of megacities like Nuuk. No wonder Trump want to buy Greenland so badly :white:


Yup, Russia, Canada and Greenland will be the winners and that will be prime real estate if things continue like this.
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Tugger
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Tugger wrote:
A discussion of sea level rise and its impacts and we get "...but obama!..." Really? Seriously? Just silly to the point of dumb.

But at the same time, alarmism isn't needed either.
Dutchy wrote:
The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.


Being close to the shore isn't the biggest issue (and I would argue that 100km is not close to the shore). Elevation above king-tide sea level is the the issue. Less than 10% of the world population lives in coastal less that 30' above sea level.


There are hugely impacted regions where the population is just feet above sea level even a dozen miles from shore but areas where the elevation rise is better with the population and a higher (20'+?) elevation it is less of an issue. Bangladesh and south Florida are pretty hosed (as are the aforementioned parts of New Orleans), but others areas are not. Except of course the most expensive and some of the most economically productive areas are generally nearer or on the coast.

So its bad and needs to be addressed. But it will happen over a time period that does allow for people to adapt and move (it's not a tsunami happening in seconds). Expensive, yes, but humans can adapt and do OK even if the impacts are huge and very destructive to those nations most at risk.

Tugg


Sure people can adapt to anything, nobody is claiming it will happen overnight. But the impact will be huge. The following maps are the predictions if we make only the 2,0degrees rise of overall temperature.

Image

Image

link

Just to highlight a random country from the list mentioned:
COUNTRY 10. Netherlands
POPULATION AFFECTED: 10,000,000
% OF NATIONAL POPULATION 62%


A 7-meter rise and the Netherlands will look like this:

Image

Want to do it for yourself:

Interactieve map

It is not just the rising of sea levels, but large parts of the world would become uninhabitable because the climate will be so severe that normal living is not possible.

Image

So you might say that alarmism isn't necessary, I think it is. Your attitude might have worked in 1972 - first rapport of the Club of Rome - but now? The impact is huge and we need to address it now, not tomorrow, not in a week, now. So I would call myself a realist. 2100 might sound very far away, but children born today, will be around to see this. If you know this and accept the science, how can you not be alarmed and act now?

For all your post and graphics, it is still just around 10% or less of the global population that is affected.

Again the bigger issue is the wealth and productivity that is tied up in the coastal areas that is at risk. As you note NL is hugely impacted potentially. So it looms huge in your future. But its 10M in NL (and additional in other EU countries that arent shown) that will be affected out of an EU population of some 500M.

Again it is a big issue and problem. It must be faced and managed for. Can it be stopped? Even if all human related affects were addressed tomorrow I doubt it. And while I believe the climate scientists and the dire warnings being made, and fully support working to curb human created/controlled enivoronmental impacts, there is little we can actually honestly "control" regarding the earth's climate. Everything is estimates and projection with very wide margins as to what will happen in the future. So I believe firmly that though "my attitude may be 1972" we have to manage and plan to manage whatever change comes.

But this is just my opinion. I am not saying you must agree or trying to convince you that your points are invalid.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:29 pm

Tugger wrote:
But this is just my opinion. I am not saying you must agree or trying to convince you that your points are invalid.

Tugg


It is a bit too close to my heart to be so mellow about it. So that's why I am a bit harsh sometimes.

The 10% figure is false, much more of the world's population will be affected. People will be affected by droughts - foot production -, fires, heat, floods etc. it isn't "just" the coastal cities, it is much more than that. Large portions of the world will be uninhabitable for humans. We are messing with the devil here.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seb146
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:29 pm

What will climate change and sea level rise do to inland cities? I am thinking of cities like Portland, Sacramento, Stockton. They are all on rivers and can see small tidal rises and falls.
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Tugger
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:50 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Tugger wrote:
But this is just my opinion. I am not saying you must agree or trying to convince you that your points are invalid.

Tugg


It is a bit too close to my heart to be so mellow about it. So that's why I am a bit harsh sometimes.

The 10% figure is false, much more of the world's population will be affected. People will be affected by droughts - foot production -, fires, heat, floods etc. it isn't "just" the coastal cities, it is much more than that. Large portions of the world will be uninhabitable for humans. We are messing with the devil here.

Yes, I do really understand (even if I seem detached, I have family in Holland) and know any impacts are far more than "just flooding". But honestly the "detached" part of me is fascinated by and wonders what the actual impacts will be. You note droughts etc will be an issue, but equally the changes in weather will bring rain and to other regions that currently don't get as much. Changes will occur on both sides of the equation. Yes, I know, we can say rains in places not used to them can mean flooding, but we just don't know. The African continent is one that might change the most due to this.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
tommy1808
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:57 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Insurance is already becoming high enough in Florida that some houses near sea level are facing huge insurance costs, and are essentially not acceptable to mortgage lenders.

Buffet was asked how he could take all that risk with flood insurance - simple he responded, we re-price those rates every year, as risk goes up the price goes up.


And there pretty much isn't a risk for him in most cases anyways...

Best regards
Thomas
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ltbewr
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:08 pm

I brought up here a couple of years ago the issue of many airports at or near coastal areas that could/will be affected by rising seas from global climate warming/change. For example, the 3 major airports in the NYC area (LGA, JFK, EWR), BOS, DCA, are all on or close to tidal waters with very little elevation so by mid to late 21st Century, they will become flooded or will have to build massive dikes (like in The Netherlands) to keep them operational. Where is all the money going to come from to pay for it when cities, housing, seaports will have to be moved or put in trillions of Dollars/Euros to put up walls to protect them. Already the Miami area (as previously noted here) due to rising sea levels and porous soils, are at high risk of becoming uninhabitable in a few decades and will have to be vacated, then the issue will be where will those people go and the costs of infrastructure to do so.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:34 pm

Itb - well, if we block immigration and create several new Detroits all those flood victims will have a place to go, and maybe jobs will follow them. LOL Didn't it work when the "move west" movement assured them all that rain would follow the plow?
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MaverickM11
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:11 pm

LittleSprocket wrote:
afcjets wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Whole island states are under threat and will be forced to relocate.

The problem is of course that - on top of my head - 70% of the world population lives within 100km of the seashore. So the sea rise is a big problem for anyone.

Obama just purchased 29 acres oceanfront on a small island for almost $15 million just last week. It's a shame he doesn't take this threat seriously. That's a lot of money to waste on property that will be underwater in 10 to 12 years.


One thing that I never understood about these climate alarmist... the insurance industry studies anything that could possibly cause them to lose money in the long run. If the seas are supposedly going to rise the rate that “scientists” are predicting, why on earth would insurance companies insure new sky rises being built right next to the ocean in Florida? They would never insure a multi-billion dollar building knowing they would have to pay out in 10-12 years.

Insurers are dropping coverage left and right. AIG is dropping coverage this year for a bunch of homes. And when they're not dropped they're way up year over year.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:30 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I predict very little to nothing will happen. And even if a group of people or a nation decides to do something, the end result will be that billionaires got even richer, ordinary people poorer and the Climate keeps doing what it is doing.

And climate change refugees and immigrants will be vilified just like they are today and many times before in history...
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KFTG
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:16 am

Thought it was a hoax?
 
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DL717
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:38 pm

Build your house up on a rock and you won’t have this problem.

Spar wrote:
New Orleans never should have been rebuilt.


Indeed.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:10 pm

A concern I had regarding New Orleans is that the city should be able to entirely evacuate or evacuate in place in 3 days. At the time of Katrina weren't there over a 100K people who really lacked that ability? A large number of these citizens did in fact move to Houston (which has its own hurricane vulnerability). Anyone aware of how good evacuation plans are now? Houson does have high ground to the north and west as I understand it, and a lot of freeways going in that direction.
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tommy1808
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:21 pm

DL717 wrote:
Build your house up on a rock and you won’t have this problem..


unless the rock is just a meter or two above current sea levels...

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Tugger
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:53 pm

I got a house on a rock for you...
Image
:D

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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DL717
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:57 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
DL717 wrote:
Build your house up on a rock and you won’t have this problem..


unless the rock is just a meter or two above current sea levels...

best regards
Thomas


While used as a parable, the meaning is to build above flooding areas on solid ground. A meter or two is hardly above an area with potential for flooding. Particularly when the area has been under water before and can be traced. But nevermind the historic areas of the planet having been under water before, like Florida, while worrying about sea rise.
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apodino
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:57 pm

I have a friend who is an Insurance Underwriter who underwrites these types of policies. She tells me risk is a harder and harder thing to assess because historical trends are out the window now and you have to deal with things like hail damage in places that have never dealt with it. She mentioned PA and NY, even saying that her company has taken a 300 percent loss on policies in PA because of this.
 
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DL717
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:03 am

apodino wrote:
I have a friend who is an Insurance Underwriter who underwrites these types of policies. She tells me risk is a harder and harder thing to assess because historical trends are out the window now and you have to deal with things like hail damage in places that have never dealt with it. She mentioned PA and NY, even saying that her company has taken a 300 percent loss on policies in PA because of this.


Let’s be clear. Never dealt with it in “modern times”. The earth is going to jack us up one way or another. We’re nothing but a parasite and just like other parasites in the past, it’s going to wipe us out. Worrying about it all the time is a waste when you could be doing other things. Anyone who thinks they can stop climate change is delusional. You cannot save the planet peeps. It won’t let you.
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tommy1808
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:05 am

DL717 wrote:
apodino wrote:
I have a friend who is an Insurance Underwriter who underwrites these types of policies. She tells me risk is a harder and harder thing to assess because historical trends are out the window now and you have to deal with things like hail damage in places that have never dealt with it. She mentioned PA and NY, even saying that her company has taken a 300 percent loss on policies in PA because of this.


Let’s be clear. Never dealt with it in “modern times”. The earth is going to jack us up one way or another. We’re nothing but a parasite and just like other parasites in the past,


Nah, we are by definition not parasites, we don´t live in or on a host body, unless you are one of those Gaia folks. In that case i´d be quite surpreised.

it’s going to wipe us out.


nah. The Sun is going to do that. But that will take about a billion years give or take.

Worrying about it all the time is a waste when you could be doing other things.


that is true

Anyone who thinks they can stop climate change is delusional.


How did that "I can not clean my room" line work on your parents way back when?

We not just have the technology to reverse what we did the last 150 years, there are few technical limits what we can´t do to our climate if we chose to. Want snowball earth? Takes perhaps 1% of the worlds GDP for a decade to freeze us all to death....

You cannot save the planet peeps. It won’t let you.


The planet doesn´t need saving, it may very well survive even the Red Giant phase of our sun as a charred husk and keep turning until its protons decay....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Aesma
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Re: Sinking Cities vs. Sea Level Rise

Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:10 pm

"Saving the planet" is a fallacy.

What about saving countless animal species that are endangered because of our actions ?

What about saving beaches ? I don't know you, but I quite like beaches.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams

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