Eyad89
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:42 pm

zkojq wrote:

I feel that Dreadnought's statement is actually a fairly good example of brexit. Brexiteers being absolutely certain that they are the smartest guys in the room, that the other side is made up entirely of morons and then being totally clueless about very complex issues which they see as being black and white. It really is all hubris.


IMO, that’s why you shouldn’t govern through referendums unless it is some kind of a super majority. The thing is, when can you tell that a referendum is binding?

A 2016 referendum resulted in a 52-48 for leave. An arbitrary referendum in 2020 for example could result in 52-48 for remain. What is so special about the 2016 referendum that it sets the destiny of UK while the future referendums cannot? A one-time decision shouldn’t be thrown like that to the public vote. Such a decision should be taken by the parliament at least, not the emotional public.

The Canada/Quebec referendum almost tore up the country a few times.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:49 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

But that is different!


Indeed. Scotland, NI, Wales all have elected representatives in Westminster.


and if they chose not to, like the UK did with the EU, they suddenly become vessel states?


If they would be ruled from outside without elected representation, like the WA mandates from the UK? Then yes.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:11 pm

zkojq wrote:
Boris wanting to build a bridge between Scotland and NI:


How very Trumpian.

zkojq wrote:
Sounds to me like she is unsulting the resolve of the British people. Does she not believe in Britain? Does she not believe in the British people's abilities to make decisions? What happened to the bulldog spirit?


It's a close run thing trying to decide if she or Johnson is less trustworthy.
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ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:15 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
IMO, that’s why you shouldn’t govern through referendums unless it is some kind of a super majority. The thing is, when can you tell that a referendum is binding

Which is why the UK doesn't. There have been a grand total of three national referendums.
It's easy to tell if a referrendum is binding or not, the UK simply doesn't hold binding referendums. They are all ADVISORY.

And contrary to brexiteer wisdom, they aren't run on a first past the post basis either.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:25 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Which it was, as i stated before you embarked on the futile attempt of defending what you made up. I guess that means case closed.

best regards
Thomas


Do show where you said that


i am afraid i can´t help you if you fail to recall posts you read and replied to just a few hours ago. The pointer to where is in the very post you just now replied to too.


Just another way to admit that you didn’t say that at all, as you can’t point to it.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:34 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
He said the vote was within the poll's margin of error. It was.
Your arbitrary assertions were proven to be incorrect, as is usual.
We all know your views (and your own personal bailout option), however your views do not and will not overturn facts, the legal process of our democracy or reality in general.


He is asserting the individual poll were within its own margin of errors, when a number multiple pollsters all come to within a very narrow margin of less than 1% consitantly after the election was called you have to wonder about the sampling being done and that was born out of the end result.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:46 pm

Olddog wrote:
And you should know that if the swiss model is in conflict with the EU it is due to Swiss attempt to reduce freedom of movement.

I do, on the Norway side their negotiations on finance and third nation trade are just as contentious.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:33 pm

AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

Indeed. Scotland, NI, Wales all have elected representatives in Westminster.


and if they chose not to, like the UK did with the EU, they suddenly become vessel states?


If they would be ruled from outside without elected representation, like the WA mandates from the UK? Then yes.


Like the UK treats Gibraltar, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and other territories you mean?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:44 pm

An interesting choice of words if this has been reported accurately, I’m not going to preempt what they may or may not do, but it’s certainly going to make it interesting to see which way the EU moves

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... es-no-deal


De Montchalin said a no deal was now “highly possible”. She added that a Brexit extension request by the UK would not be accepted under the “current conditions” and the the EU27 would deal with the UK prime minister and not parliament.

She said: “We first have to receive a formal ask. Governments talk to the commission, that’s the way it works. There is no such thing, for example, as parliament asking for an extension. Those who have the legitimacy to represent a country are those who sit at the table of the European council

If – and that’s a big if, it seems … we try to follow what’s happening in the UK – but if there is such an ask, we have always said that ‘time for time’ is not an option. So if there is a change in the political scene – a new government, the announcement of elections, something that makes us think the landscape of the discussions is changing – then we will consider an extension.

“I cannot tell you now what might be decided now in such a situation on a night in Brussels in October,” the French minister added. “As we have said, under current circumstances, the answer is no: if nothing changes, we have always said time alone is not a sufficient reason [for another extension]. We cannot commit today, because we have no concrete scenarios yet.”
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:19 pm

Bostrom wrote:
Like the UK treats Gibraltar, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and other territories you mean?

I believe anytime a vote of the people in those places has been taken "Remain" has won. So it is their choice.

Tugg
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AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:42 pm

Bostrom wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

and if they chose not to, like the UK did with the EU, they suddenly become vessel states?


If they would be ruled from outside without elected representation, like the WA mandates from the UK? Then yes.


Like the UK treats Gibraltar, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and other territories you mean?


If the UK government can impose UK law on those territories and those territories do not have the right to veto, then yes, they are vassal states.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:51 pm

Tugger wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
Like the UK treats Gibraltar, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and other territories you mean?

I believe anytime a vote of the people in those places has been taken "Remain" has won. So it is their choice.

Tugg

Interesting thing is that in most of them expats make up a significant percentage of the population.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:35 pm

No-one here interested in talking about the Yellowhammer papers then? I'm surprised...

It might only six be pages (I don't believe for a moment that what we've seen is the actual full document!) and they tried to redact point 15, but it's already come out that that paragraph stated that the British oil industry would instantly collapse due to 0% tariffs having to be imposed on imported oil (WTO rules and all that...).

Quite a biggy.

And someone commented that the real shocker is another undisclosed document called Black Swan - that's the one detailing worst-cases scenarios. Unlike what Leadsom would have us believe, Yellowhammer is the baseline no-deal scenario (they sneakily changed the title before releasing this version).
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:47 pm

What is in the Yellowhammer papers that have not already been published via a number of other project fear discourse?
If they had spent the previous 2 years working on a deal versus fighting....
Shortages will last up to 3 months, really, the mighty UK with its tons of civil servants, military, numerous business houses cannot plan ahead to avoid 3 months of shortages, really, what does the EU have to do with that?

I am more interested in seeing their list of replacements products, since there would be no amicable break, one would think they would be lining up goods from third nations to have available, a good percentage of the population may not like them, but if available, those who choose to only use EU products can pay the higher prices or travel to the EU, purchase then return home and pay duty.

I personally don't subscribe to the belief that those who voted Leave expected nothing to change when and if the relationship with the EU changed, but that's just me.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:14 pm

par13del wrote:
What is in the Yellowhammer papers that have not already been published via a number of other project fear discourse?
If they had spent the previous 2 years working on a deal versus fighting....
Shortages will last up to 3 months, really, the mighty UK with its tons of civil servants, military, numerous business houses cannot plan ahead to avoid 3 months of shortages, really, what does the EU have to do with that?

I am more interested in seeing their list of replacements products, since there would be no amicable break, one would think they would be lining up goods from third nations to have available, a good percentage of the population may not like them, but if available, those who choose to only use EU products can pay the higher prices or travel to the EU, purchase then return home and pay duty.

I personally don't subscribe to the belief that those who voted Leave expected nothing to change when and if the relationship with the EU changed, but that's just me.


Yep agree 100% government can’t really control the market is dictated to what the market is prepared to pay
 
ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:41 am

Does the 'Yellowhammer' or 'Black Swan' reports discuss how much trade will be affected by the likely crash in the value of the UK Pound vs. the Euro and USD, especially if a 'no-deal' Brexit? It is possible the Pound could drop to = $1.00 USD or Euro 1.00. That will devastate the finances of the average UK citizen or resident as everything, especially if imported, will go up by huge amounts in price. We have to assume some things in these reports have been held back from the public to not hurt the stock markets or encourage a run on banks or other crises.

Then there will be problem of ex-pats coming home from Spain and elsewhere in the EU as cannot get health care from those countries government run programs anymore adding even more pressure in the UK's budgets. .
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:34 am

ltbewr wrote:
Does the 'Yellowhammer' or 'Black Swan' reports discuss how much trade will be affected by the likely crash in the value of the UK Pound vs. the Euro and USD, especially if a 'no-deal' Brexit? It is possible the Pound could drop to = $1.00 USD or Euro 1.00. That will devastate the finances of the average UK citizen or resident as everything, especially if imported, will go up by huge amounts in price. We have to assume some things in these reports have been held back from the public to not hurt the stock markets or encourage a run on banks or other crises.

Then there will be problem of ex-pats coming home from Spain and elsewhere in the EU as cannot get health care from those countries government run programs anymore adding even more pressure in the UK's budgets. .

Well if being in the EU is keeping the pound at the level that it is, a further drop is to be expected, since the UK outside of the EU would be attempting to increase exports, the lower pound would make UK goods cheaper to third nations, as you correctly state, the flip side is that imports will cost more, if they attempt to maintain their existing product lines.

As for the expats returning homes, we do not know what status the EU will give them in No Deal if it happens, but I assume they will be able to access the existing government programs but at a higher cost since there would be no EU subsidy, however, in the past thread when such discussions were allowed, there was mention of existing programs where the UK was reimbursing providers on the continent for services to UK citizens. I would say the mechanisms exist, whether they would be allowed to function is another story.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:44 am

ltbewr wrote:
Does the 'Yellowhammer' or 'Black Swan' reports discuss how much trade will be affected by the likely crash in the value of the UK Pound vs. the Euro and USD, especially if a 'no-deal' Brexit? It is possible the Pound could drop to = $1.00 USD or Euro 1.00. That will devastate the finances of the average UK citizen or resident as everything, especially if imported, will go up by huge amounts in price.

The pound started plummeting the day after Cameron's announcement of the referendum in December 2015. It fluctuated somewhat up and down - mostly down - with the polls in the press, until it of course took a serious hit after the June 2016 referendum.

Since then it has been pretty stable about 20% below 2015 level. A no deal crash out on 31 October will of course be negative, but probably not that much on top of the 20% already suffered. Could be less than 5% extra. The financial markets react immediately on future expectations, and it has been no secret during the last several years that the UK may leave the EU.

The UK citizens have already today got used to paying 2-3000 pounds extra for a modest family car - 2-3000 more than they would have paid if they had voted differently in June 2016. Similar for other imports. And similar for many British or partly British produced products which are also exported, and therefore are priced with world market prices.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:46 am

AeroVega wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

If they would be ruled from outside without elected representation, like the WA mandates from the UK? Then yes.


Like the UK treats Gibraltar, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and other territories you mean?


If the UK government can impose UK law on those territories and those territories do not have the right to veto, then yes, they are vassal states.


So the UK government does not see a problem with vessel state status ..... so whats the fuzz about. ....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:46 am

A lower pound only makes the UK´s industry more competitive. It is a good thing. Fewer pensioners spending their moneys in the EU, another good thing. Less imports from the EU and more self reliance and imports from cheaper countries, next good thing. The paper describes a huge long term success for the UK and a chance that must not be missed. Yellow Hammer shows why the Hard Brexit is the best solution for the UK.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:02 am

A101 wrote:
An interesting choice of words if this has been reported accurately, I’m not going to preempt what they may or may not do, but it’s certainly going to make it interesting to see which way the EU moves

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... es-no-deal


Also from this report: No Canada-plus free trade deal after hard Brexit, but Canada-minus-minus.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:05 am

seahawk wrote:
A lower pound only makes the UK´s industry more competitive. ...... Less imports from the EU


slight contradiction, much of the stuff used in UK manufacturing is imported, so less import means less manufacturing, and less value share of the final product for the UK :)

The paper describes a huge long term success for the UK and a chance that must not be missed. Yellow Hammer shows why the Hard Brexit is the best solution for the UK.


"We can not publish it, because we are afraid our citizen would start hunting down all those politicians that failed to crash us out right away ... just want to avoid violence!" :mrgreen:

best regards
Thomas
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AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:20 am

tommy1808 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
Bostrom wrote:

Like the UK treats Gibraltar, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and other territories you mean?


If the UK government can impose UK law on those territories and those territories do not have the right to veto, then yes, they are vassal states.


So the UK government does not see a problem with vessel state status ..... so whats the fuzz about. ....

best regards
Thomas


If Gibraltar, Bermuda and the Gayman islands don't have a problem with being vassal states, why would the UK have a problem with it? The point is that the UK does not want to be a vassal state to the EU. So you cannot draw analogies between the two relationships.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:22 am

No. 15 from the Yellow Hammer document must be truly horrible to black it out in even that one.....

best regards
Thomas
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Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:25 am

tommy1808 wrote:
No. 15 from the Yellow Hammer document must be truly horrible to black it out in even that one.....

best regards
Thomas


Pretty much – since those same papers had already been leaked earlier the cat is out of the bag on that one, too.

It states that the UK oil-producing industry is expected to be crushed on a no-deal Brexit with about 2000 jobs to be lost and civil unrest to be expected as a consequence.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:37 am

Klaus wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
No. 15 from the Yellow Hammer document must be truly horrible to black it out in even that one.....

best regards
Thomas


Pretty much – since those same papers had already been leaked earlier the cat is out of the bag on that one, too.

It states that the UK oil-producing industry is expected to be crushed on a no-deal Brexit with about 2000 jobs to be lost and civil unrest to be expected as a consequence.


is that Oil Industry directly only or does that include the likes of Bristow Group that suddenly have hundreds of millions of pounds in assets they won´t need all that much anymore in that case?

best regards
Thomas
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EIBPI
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:47 am

seahawk wrote:
A lower pound only makes the UK´s industry more competitive. It is a good thing. Fewer pensioners spending their moneys in the EU, another good thing. Less imports from the EU and more self reliance and imports from cheaper countries, next good thing. The paper describes a huge long term success for the UK and a chance that must not be missed. Yellow Hammer shows why the Hard Brexit is the best solution for the UK.


I take it we have not read the same document.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:56 am

EIBPI wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A lower pound only makes the UK´s industry more competitive. It is a good thing. Fewer pensioners spending their moneys in the EU, another good thing. Less imports from the EU and more self reliance and imports from cheaper countries, next good thing. The paper describes a huge long term success for the UK and a chance that must not be missed. Yellow Hammer shows why the Hard Brexit is the best solution for the UK.


I take it we have not read the same document.


If this does not have a medium to long term positive effect, why would you do it?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:17 am

seahawk wrote:
EIBPI wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A lower pound only makes the UK´s industry more competitive. It is a good thing. Fewer pensioners spending their moneys in the EU, another good thing. Less imports from the EU and more self reliance and imports from cheaper countries, next good thing. The paper describes a huge long term success for the UK and a chance that must not be missed. Yellow Hammer shows why the Hard Brexit is the best solution for the UK.


I take it we have not read the same document.


If this does not have a medium to long term positive effect, why would you do it?


same reason people went willingly and eagerly off to fight in wars before Photo-Journalism and TV had made plain to everyone that it isn´t the romanticized fiel of honor it was made out to be?

Not thinking it through....

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Thomas
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:33 am

AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

If the UK government can impose UK law on those territories and those territories do not have the right to veto, then yes, they are vassal states.


So the UK government does not see a problem with vessel state status ..... so whats the fuzz about. ....

best regards
Thomas


If Gibraltar, Bermuda and the Gayman islands don't have a problem with being vassal states, why would the UK have a problem with it? The point is that the UK does not want to be a vassal state to the EU. So you cannot draw analogies between the two relationships.


Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange. Does every international agreement make one a vassal state? It is just complete and utter bull and just used to inflame the discussion and prevents discussion of the real consequences and what is at stake.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:37 am

Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

So the UK government does not see a problem with vessel state status ..... so whats the fuzz about. ....

best regards
Thomas


If Gibraltar, Bermuda and the Gayman islands don't have a problem with being vassal states, why would the UK have a problem with it? The point is that the UK does not want to be a vassal state to the EU. So you cannot draw analogies between the two relationships.


Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange. Does every international agreement make one a vassal state? It is just complete and utter bull and just used to inflame the discussion and prevents discussion of the real consequences and what is at stake.


come on.. without any real reasons to promote Brexit stuff needs to be made up.

Joseph Göbbels wrote:
It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.


best regards
Thomas
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:37 am

Strange nobody mentioned the defeat of Johnson in Scottish court.

Court says Boris Johnson's suspension of Parliament is unlawful — so what now for Brexit?

The court said Johnson's advice to Queen Elizabeth II was unlawful "because its purpose was to stymie parliamentary scrutiny" of the government.


Link
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:46 am

Dutchy wrote:
Strange nobody mentioned the defeat of Johnson in Scottish court.

Court says Boris Johnson's suspension of Parliament is unlawful — so what now for Brexit?

The court said Johnson's advice to Queen Elizabeth II was unlawful "because its purpose was to stymie parliamentary scrutiny" of the government.


Link


some 23 hours ago ;-)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1430355&start=450#p21651435

but of course it is being ignored by the Cheerleaders....

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Thomas
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:52 am

Opes sorry, missed it, thanks Thomas.

But indeed, it is quite remarkable that we have come to this.
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kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:39 am

Although senior British govt leaders (Leadsom being one) are denying it, the possibility of a breakthrough with regard to NI might be the key; sure, the Tories talk up British territorial integrity, but given even the possibility of the problems and challenges set out in Yellowhammer, would any UK govt choose this pain for its population over and above what could be a win-win situation. No "no deal" and a favourable result for NI. The DUP is no longer holding their choke-chain, so a rational, responsible choice is possible.

Does the govt really want to say to the population at large, which will suffer greatly (and let it be said, needlessly) due to the consequences of a "no deal". Here's a practice statement: "well, we had a choice, but we decided to go with the DUP option and foist a regime on NI that no one (apart from the DUP wanted) just to maintain some fake "regulatory alignment", because that was clearly a better option than sparing you all the s**t you're going to be facing over the next few years with "no deal".
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:40 am

I shouldn't argue with trolls, but I can't let this go unchallenged.

seahawk wrote:
A lower pound only makes the UK´s industry more competitive. It is a good thing.


Industry which is a shadow of what it used to be a long time ago. Since then, various car manufacturers have either announced their intention to close down (e.g. Honda in Swindon, even though officially they haven't said Brexit) or are making threats depending on Brexit (e.g. PSA with the Vauxhall plant in Ellesmere Port, BMW with the Mini plant in Cowley, Nissan with Sunderland). Any benefits from a weaker pound will simply be wiped out by WTO tariffs in the event of a no deal Brexit, particularly to places such as the EU where there are currently zero.

A weaker pound also makes foreign holidays to places such as eurozone countries and the USA (based on EUR and USD rapidly dropping overnight and failing to recover) more expensive. That also impacts how long people go away for and how much they spend at the destination. Take me for example: I've recently booked flights and hotels to go to the USA for 11 nights next year. I would have gone for 14 nights had the exchange rate been at 2014 levels (which peaked at £1/$1.71 in July 2014 and was above £/$1.60 for most of that year) as we're paying around the same price for 3 nights less. It also means we're going to be changing our spending habits to make our dollars go further if exchange rates fail to improve significantly, so instead of eating out every night we'll be eating in, which means money we would have normally spent in cafes/restaurants will instead go to supermarkets.

Basically, we adapt and cut our cloth accordingly so we can continue to go to places we enjoy going to and to do the things we like doing; however that's not necessarily a good thing as it's still a downturn in spending compared to when exchange rates were more favourable.

seahawk wrote:
Fewer pensioners spending their moneys in the EU, another good thing.


See above. It means less money being spent at destinations which will impact the local economies. Some places such as certain Spanish resorts are heavily reliant on British tourists. A big downturn in spending or people visiting will be impacted and to say it will be quickly made up by tourists from elsewhere is naive. It also means those who want to get more for their money will go to places such as Turkey where the pound is more competitive against the Turkish lira and factors such as political unrest and terror attacks that had put tourists off have calmed down. Similar story for Tunisia now the Foreign Office have lifted no travel restrictions there.

Basically, money that would have been spent within the EU is going elsewhere. From an EU perspective, I'm not sure if those within the EU that get a lot of trade from British tourists will say that's a good thing.

seahawk wrote:
Less imports from the EU and more self reliance and imports from cheaper countries, next good thing.


Which are.....? You sound like Tim Martin.

seahawk wrote:
The paper describes a huge long term success for the UK and a chance that must not be missed. Yellow Hammer shows why the Hard Brexit is the best solution for the UK.


The paper presents all sorts of real issues that are likely to be faced in the event of a no deal Brexit with no transition arrangement in place with the EU. Put aside the long-term, there are a lot of challenges in the short-to-medium term that Brexiteer's and hard Brexit cheerleaders such as yourself have no answers to that need urgently addressing. We're still waiting to hear them.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:50 am

Dutchy wrote:
Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange.


It's just the Brextremist version of "project fear". :sarcastic:

Dutchy wrote:
Strange nobody mentioned the defeat of Johnson in Scottish court.


Well, it's just one further step in the process. After the initial rulings in Scotland and the English High Court, this appeal court ruling trumps both those, so now we have to trundle off to the Supreme Court on Tuesday for a final ruling.

While I think it's a despicably underhand and desperate measure by Johnson to avoid scrutiny, while he tries to railroad a no-deal Brexit, I doubt it's actually unlawful. In hindsight, it was obviously going to happen since it was first suggested during the Conservative leadership elections.

tommy1808 wrote:
but of course it is being ignored by the Cheerleaders....


The same cheerleaders who complain about "parliamentary sovereignty" and "respecting democracy" (as long as it's only one advisory vote)? Those cheerleaders? The silence is deafening, isn't it? :listen:

The sad state of Labour in all this is a worrying reflection of the current situation. We now have the leader and deputy leader in open, public conflict about what Labour's strategy should be. Jeremy "sit on the fence" Corbyn is still trying to appeal to everyone at the same time and sounding more like Worzel Gummidge every day. That Labour isn't a mile ahead in the polls is a shocking indictment of the ineptitude of the Corbyn/McDonnell (with Len McCluskey pulling the strings in the background) leadership. I cannot see Labour winning an election any time soon. I'm absolutely no fan of the current Labour leadership, but Labour supporters must be :banghead:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:36 am

scbriml wrote:
While I think it's a despicably underhand and desperate measure by Johnson to avoid scrutiny, while he tries to railroad a no-deal Brexit, I doubt it's actually unlawful. In hindsight, it was obviously going to happen since it was first suggested during the Conservative leadership elections.

It depends on what advice he gave Her Majesty.
He may have fed her all the waffle about conference breaks (not voted for), plenty of time and he's seeking a deal but if he's left out the primary motivator (which is obvious to all & more tangible evidence is being revealed daily to confirm that was the motivator), then he has misled the Monarch (unlawful), Parliament and the public.



As for Corbyn, I think his days are numbered, he's got a handful of months left at best. If he'd had any competence as an opposition leader, the next GE should be a slamdunk, which it's far from being.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:31 am

Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

So the UK government does not see a problem with vessel state status ..... so whats the fuzz about. ....

best regards
Thomas


If Gibraltar, Bermuda and the Gayman islands don't have a problem with being vassal states, why would the UK have a problem with it? The point is that the UK does not want to be a vassal state to the EU. So you cannot draw analogies between the two relationships.


Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange. Does every international agreement make one a vassal state? It is just complete and utter bull and just used to inflame the discussion and prevents discussion of the real consequences and what is at stake.


No other international treaty demands that a sovereign government hand over regulatory control to another and can only leave that treaty with the consent of the other party, hence the term vassal state and not protectorate.
 
A101
Posts: 1195
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:35 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Strange nobody mentioned the defeat of Johnson in Scottish court.

Court says Boris Johnson's suspension of Parliament is unlawful — so what now for Brexit?

The court said Johnson's advice to Queen Elizabeth II was unlawful "because its purpose was to stymie parliamentary scrutiny" of the government.


Link


some 23 hours ago ;-)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1430355&start=450#p21651435

but of course it is being ignored by the Cheerleaders....

best regards
Thomas


Not ignored just know that it will end up ion the supreme Court...….
 
kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:37 am

ChrisKen wrote:
[quote="scbriml


As for Corbyn, I think his days are numbered, he's got a handful of months left at best. If he'd had any competence as an opposition leader, the next GE should be a slamdunk, which it's far from being.


It really should be; to have done what Johnson has done and to have caused the disarray he has caused in barely a few weeks as PM and NOT to be a beaten suggests a very poor opposition. The reality, however, is that to most of the population, Boris is the least bad option of the two. He may be a tosspot in most respects, but what an economy hit by Brexit does NOT need is the regressive Marxist/Leninist policies of Corbyn/McDonnell et al. Benn, Starmer or one of the saner members of the Labour team would be far more palatable. The problem is of course that the mechanism for electing a new leader is pretty complicated and those leaders who might be more palatable to the general public might not be acceptable to the grass-roots membersship. Tiny problem there ...

Nobody seems to know which way Corbyn is facing and that lack of leadership is going to cost Labour dear. If Labour either doesn't win the next election, or has a chance to form a coalition with the LDs and SNP, then it's curtains.
 
tommy1808
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Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:25 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

If Gibraltar, Bermuda and the Gayman islands don't have a problem with being vassal states, why would the UK have a problem with it? The point is that the UK does not want to be a vassal state to the EU. So you cannot draw analogies between the two relationships.


Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange. Does every international agreement make one a vassal state? It is just complete and utter bull and just used to inflame the discussion and prevents discussion of the real consequences and what is at stake.


No other international treaty demands that a sovereign government hand over regulatory control to another and can only leave that treaty with the consent of the other party,


Gosh geeee... don't let Kim hear that... he may come to the conclusion that, after leaving the NPT, he can have all the nukes he wants and doesn't need consent from everyone, or that any sanctions because of it would be illegal.... especially considering that those other states are party to the NPT, that explicitly states every country has the right to have nukes....
Or don't let Cuba hear that they dont need permission to cancel the Guantanamo lease agreement....
Doesn't Scotland need consent from rom the UK government to even put indepence to a vote?

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
A101
Posts: 1195
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:21 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange. Does every international agreement make one a vassal state? It is just complete and utter bull and just used to inflame the discussion and prevents discussion of the real consequences and what is at stake.


No other international treaty demands that a sovereign government hand over regulatory control to another and can only leave that treaty with the consent of the other party,


Gosh geeee... don't let Kim hear that... he may come to the conclusion that, after leaving the NPT, he can have all the nukes he wants and doesn't need consent from everyone, or that any sanctions because of it would be illegal.... especially considering that those other states are party to the NPT, that explicitly states every country has the right to have nukes....
Or don't let Cuba hear that they dont need permission to cancel the Guantanamo lease agreement....
Doesn't Scotland need consent from rom the UK government to even put indepence to a vote?

Best regards
Thomas


Well I don't see anyone taking over regulatory control over NK or the entire nation of Cuba do you?

No one really knows if Scotland can have another shot,as its never been tested whether it can or cant hold a second referenda without Westminster's approval, so far as I'm aware the Scottish Government does not want to test this issue so how do you know it cant?


Your lot like taking the court route so why not on this?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:46 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:

No other international treaty demands that a sovereign government hand over regulatory control to another and can only leave that treaty with the consent of the other party,


Gosh geeee... don't let Kim hear that... he may come to the conclusion that, after leaving the NPT, he can have all the nukes he wants and doesn't need consent from everyone, or that any sanctions because of it would be illegal.... especially considering that those other states are party to the NPT, that explicitly states every country has the right to have nukes....
Or don't let Cuba hear that they dont need permission to cancel the Guantanamo lease agreement....
Doesn't Scotland need consent from rom the UK government to even put indepence to a vote?

Best regards
Thomas


Well I don't see anyone taking over regulatory control over NK or the entire nation of Cuba do you?


right.. my mistake. Instead of regulatory vessel state we should do crippling sanctions and starve their people. Apparently that is the preferable approach among extremist...

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1154
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:53 am

ChrisKen wrote:
As for Corbyn, I think his days are numbered, he's got a handful of months left at best. If he'd had any competence as an opposition leader, the next GE should be a slamdunk, which it's far from being.


I suspect Corbyn will remain if Labour increase their number of seats like last time or are able to get in to power one way or another. Otherwise, I'd agree he's finished if they lose seats, especially traditionally safe seats. MP's may have dropped their calls for him to go after Corbyn beat Owen Smith 3 years ago and doing better than expected in the 2017 general election, but as we have seen not all is well and a number of MP's have quit over antisemitism within the party. They're probably just biding their time.

Corbyn's biggest challenge is keeping all those who voted for Labour 2 years ago on board, particularly those who will have seen through some of his BS since and particularly those who live in areas that heavily voted for the Brexit Party. Admittedly he did a good job back then convincing enough people (including remainers) they wouldn't make a mess of it, but things have changed since then. Remainers will be a tough nut to crack due to Labour's conflicting messages on Brexit and the Lib Dems have been quietly gaining support and popularity with their staunch anti-Brexit stance.

A101 wrote:
No one really knows if Scotland can have another shot,as its never been tested whether it can or cant hold a second referenda without Westminster's approval, so far as I'm aware the Scottish Government does not want to test this issue so how do you know it cant?


Scotland can have another independence referendum if Westminster grants them a Section 30 request for one. Sturgeon did this a year or two back which was quickly rejected by May. I'm still expecting an independence referendum to be the price for SNP support in the event of another hung parliament.

The SNP are undoubtedly keen for another one: partly to avoid losing EU membership status, partly because some of their hard core support are demanding one right now and have done ever since the last time, partly because their 2016 Scottish parliament manifesto says they will seek one if there's a "material change" in circumstances such as Brexit (I suspect this was put in to give them an excuse to call for one if it went that way, otherwise they wouldn't have bothered until they were sure there's enough support to win a second referendum) and partly because independence is their raison d'etre.

I suspect a second referendum without Westminster's approval would simply not be recognised.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:32 pm

So the Scots think the EU was not serious when they talked being able to join if the UK broke up?
As for Labour...I suspect that the reason they trail for a GE is not because of Brexit but the stated policies Corbyn have been talking about. If not for those, Labour would be way ahead.
 
JJJ
Posts: 3304
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:48 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

If Gibraltar, Bermuda and the Gayman islands don't have a problem with being vassal states, why would the UK have a problem with it? The point is that the UK does not want to be a vassal state to the EU. So you cannot draw analogies between the two relationships.


Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange. Does every international agreement make one a vassal state? It is just complete and utter bull and just used to inflame the discussion and prevents discussion of the real consequences and what is at stake.


No other international treaty demands that a sovereign government hand over regulatory control to another and can only leave that treaty with the consent of the other party, hence the term vassal state and not protectorate.


Ever heard about WTO? DSB reigns over trade disputes, SPS regulates food, pesticides, etc., TRIPS regulates intellectual property, etc.

Some of the much maligned "EU standards" about bendy bananas and stuff are actually rules transponded from WTO.

Are you going to leave WTO too?
 
A101
Posts: 1195
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:16 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Gosh geeee... don't let Kim hear that... he may come to the conclusion that, after leaving the NPT, he can have all the nukes he wants and doesn't need consent from everyone, or that any sanctions because of it would be illegal.... especially considering that those other states are party to the NPT, that explicitly states every country has the right to have nukes....
Or don't let Cuba hear that they dont need permission to cancel the Guantanamo lease agreement....
Doesn't Scotland need consent from rom the UK government to even put indepence to a vote?

Best regards
Thomas


Well I don't see anyone taking over regulatory control over NK or the entire nation of Cuba do you?


right.. my mistake. Instead of regulatory vessel state we should do crippling sanctions and starve their people. Apparently that is the preferable approach among extremist...

best regards
Thomas



Uncle Kim has brought that upon himself his own policies and style of government have reduced the human rights to non distinguishable conditions, the West has been give food aid to NK since the famine and after the collapse of the USSR, strange how they prioritise food for the Army and spend majority of there capital on the military against the effect on the general population.
 
A101
Posts: 1195
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:20 pm

JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Can we please put the frame "vassal state" to rest? It is a bit strange. Does every international agreement make one a vassal state? It is just complete and utter bull and just used to inflame the discussion and prevents discussion of the real consequences and what is at stake.


No other international treaty demands that a sovereign government hand over regulatory control to another and can only leave that treaty with the consent of the other party, hence the term vassal state and not protectorate.


Ever heard about WTO? DSB reigns over trade disputes, SPS regulates food, pesticides, etc., TRIPS regulates intellectual property, etc.

Some of the much maligned "EU standards" about bendy bananas and stuff are actually rules transponded from WTO.

Are you going to leave WTO too?


Off course we won’t be leaving the WTO, but that doesn’t mean you can’t decide to do it unilaterally.
 
AeroVega
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:32 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:46 pm

tommy1808 wrote:

Joseph Göbbels wrote:


best regards
Thomas


You just confirmed Godwin's law, congratulations.

"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

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