LJ wrote:Chances on a deal are increasing as Rees-Mogg starts to make a turn in its tone. Basically they're trying to move in such a way that they can sell a deal to their followers.
the Tories seem to have decided that there's no way they can have their 'no deal' departure, so they have to have a deal now anyway given the exit date is nearing.
Since they can't suddenly accept the deal TM brought to Parliament 3 times and which was vehemently objected by a large fraction of theirs, yet there aren't 20 different ways to solve the NI conondrum either, their plan is basically to revert back to the original idea from the EU (and to which they initially agreed albeit reluctantly): give away NI in all but name!
Remember this was the EU's starting offer and it was initially accepted by TM until her then all important supply and confidence partner the DUP objected to it, after which she embarked on a painstaking journey to find an alternative which was disliked by her own party to the point they voted against it 3 times… and forced her out.
Now that BoJo has no majority anyway and thus the DUP has become largely irrelevant to him, his thinking seems to be leading him to something 'no British PM could ever do' (dixit TM): accept a custom border INSIDE the UK!
Meanwhile, further leaks are slowly starting to show just how quickly the UK is giving in in Brussels:
- in the original proposal from BoJo to the EU from last week, the common custom territory for NI would have to be renewed every 4 years by the NI assembly (and the DUP would thus have a veto over it), it is now said this provision has been dropped completely: no more DUP veto!
- the deal would have to be enshrined into a seperate piece of international law first, meaning the UK can not unilaterally renegate on it, later...
- in parallel, British negotiators are said to be more preoccupied with talking about changing the modalities (as in: 'extending') of the transitional phase which would be secured as a consequence of agreeing to a deal, than to the deal itself now: have they been given the timid instructions to basically accept it all?
- Finally, since everything has to be enshrined into legal texts, law and even international treaties, an extension is very likely: the British government has sent out J.Hunt to softly prepare yet another U-turn on that front too in radio interviews and the press…
- no exit on Oct 31st, but a 'technical extension' suddenly seems to be acceptable to BoJo and he'll claim the UK will have left 'in spirit'.
- BoJo has been calling up the French President as well as other government leaders today to beg them to speed up the ratification process at home in order to keep the extension 'as short as possible'...but obviously the French and others will take their time, if only to make sure Brexiteers are once again publically humiliated by having to ask for yet another extension first in the most humble way.
Somebody has started to eat a lot of humble pie over the weekend: does he want his own surrender bill passed?